Fed hawks and doves in their own words

May 15 (Reuters) – The labels “dove” and “hawk” have long been used by central bank watchers to describe the monetary policy leanings of policymakers, with a dove more focused on risks to the labor market and a hawk more focused on the threat of inflation. The topsy-turvy economic environment of the COVID-19 pandemic sidelined those differences, turning Federal Reserve officials at first universally dovish as they sought to provide massive accommodation for a cratering U.S. economy, and then, when inflation surged, into hawks who uniformly backed aggressive interest rate hikes. The risks are now seen as more balanced and the choices more nuanced. All 12 regional Fed presidents debate monetary policy at Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings that are held eight times a year, but only five cast votes at any given meeting, including the New York Fed president and four others who vote for one year at a time on a rotating schedule. The seven Fed governors, including the Fed chair and vice chairs, have permanent votes on the FOMC. The following chart shows officials’ latest views on the outlook for Fed policy and the economy. The designations are based on comments and published remarks; for more on the thinking that shaped these hawk-dove designations, click on the photos in this graphic. For a breakdown of how Reuters’ counts in each category have changed, please scroll to the bottom of this story. Dove Dovish Centrist Hawkish Hawk Patrick Jerome Powell, Raphael Bostic, Michelle Harker, Fed Chair, Atlanta Fed Bowman, Philadelphia permanent President, 2024 Governor, Fed voter: “I don’t voter: Now permanent President, think that it is expects one voter: 2026 voter: likely based on rate cut this “While the When it comes the data we have year, in the current to a rate that the next fourth quarter, stance of cut, “I think move that we down from two monetary we’re close, make will be a previously policy give us a rate hike…It is (April 3, appears to couple of more likely … 2024). “We’re be at a meetings.” we hold the just going to restrictiv Feb 22, 2024 policy rate have to be e level, I where it is..” patient and remain May 14, 2024 wait until willing to inflation gives raise the us signals that federal it is more funds rate robustly at a heading towards future 2%.” May 9, meeting 2024 should the incoming data indicate that progress on inflation has stalled or reversed.” May 3, 2024 John Williams, Loretta Mester, New York Fed Cleveland Fed President, President, 2024 permanent voter: voter*: Three Three rate cuts rate cuts in in 2024 is “a 2024 “feels reasonable kind about right.” of starting (Feb 29, 2024) point.” (Feb 28, “It’s too early 2024) “Eventuall to really y we’ll have conclude that rate cuts.” May we stalled out 6, 2024 or that inflation is going to reverse.” May 14, 2024 Philip Thomas Barkin, Jefferson, Vice Richmond Fed Chair: “My President, 2024 baseline outlook voter: “I do continues to be tend to imagine that inflation that we’re will decline going to need a further, with little more the policy rate edge off of held steady at demand to get its current all the way” to level.” April 2% inflation. 16, 2024 May 6, 2024 Michael Barr, Jeffrey Schmid, Vice Chair of Kansas City Fed Supervision, President, 2025 permanent voter: voter: “I am “It’s very early prepared to be to say whether patient.” May we end up with a 14, 2024 ‘soft landing’ or not.” Feb 14, 2024 Christopher Neel Kashkari, Waller, Minneapolis Fed Governor, President, 2026 permanent voter: voter: Penciled “There is no in two 2024 rush to cut the rate cuts in policy rate.” March. “We March 27, 2024 probably need to sit here for a while longer until we figure out where underlying inflation is headed.” May 15, 2024 Lisa Cook, Lorie Logan, Governor, Dallas Fed permanent voter: President, 2026 “Fully restoring voter: “I think price stability it’s just too may take a early to think cautious about cutting approach to rates.” May 10, easing monetary 2024 policy over time.” March 25, 2024 Adriana Kugler, Governor, permanent voter: “If disinflation and labor market conditions proceed as I am currently expecting, then some lowering of the policy rate this year would be appropriate.” April 3, 2024 Mary Daly, San Francisco Fed President, 2024 voter: Three rate cuts this year is “a very reasonable baseline.” (April 2, 2024) “I’m in a wait-and-see mode.” May 9, 2024. Austan Goolsbee, Chicago Fed President, 2025 voter: At the median Fed expectation for three rate cuts in 2024 (March 25, 2024). ”We clearly hit a bump at the start of this year, and we’ve just got to get comfort that it’s not a sign of a reacceleration of the economy.” May 3, 2024 Susan Collins, Boston Fed President, 2025 voter: Expects “in the range of two” rate cuts for 2024 (April 11, 2024) “I do think that holding in this restrictive range for longer will in an orderly way” help to slow the economy. May 8, 2024 Note: Fed policymakers began raising interest rates in March 2022 to bring down high inflation. Their most recent policy rate hike, to a range of 5.25%-5.50%, occurred in July 2023. Half of policymakers as of mid-March thought three rate cuts this year would be appropriate; just as many thought it would be fewer, projections released after their March 19-20 meeting showed. Two of 19 thought there would be none. Alberto Musalem, who started as the St. Louis Fed’s president on April 2, has not made any substantive policy remarks and is not included in the dove-hawk matrix. *Mester hits the Fed banks’ mandatory retirement age in June; if a successor is not yet hired, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee would vote until one is. Reuters over time has shifted policymaker designations based on fresh comments and developing circumstances. Below is a Reuters count of policymakers in each category, heading into recent Fed meetings. FOMC Date Dove Dovish Centrist Hawkish Hawk Apr/May ’24 0 1 10 6 1 March ’24 0 1 11 5 1 Jan ’24 0 2 9 4 1 Dec ’23 0 2 9 4 1 Oct/Nov ’23 0 2 7 5 2 Sept ’23 0 4 3 6 3 June ’23 0 3 3 8 3 March ’23 0 2 3 10 2 Dec ’22 0 4 1 12 2 (Reporting by Ann Saphir; Editing by Paul Simao and Andrea Ricci)

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