PREVIEW-Tunisia votes for president with Saied’s main opponents in jail

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Saied faces head of minor party and jailed candidate in vote

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Most main opposition figures in prison or banned from running

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Any candidate getting over 50% wins, otherwise will be run-off

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Saied dismissed parliament and changed constitution in 2021

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Tunisia had been seen as a relative democratic success

By Tarek Amara

TUNIS, Oct 4 (Reuters) – Tunisia’s election on Sunday pits President Kais Saied, who rights groups say has removed most democratic checks on his power, against a candidate who was suddenly jailed last month and another who heads a minor political party.

Candidates who represented bigger opposition groups were already in prison or removed from the ballot by an electoral commission named by Saied, and an independent court has been stripped of authority to adjudicate on election disputes.

Saied now faces just two candidates. Al-Chaab party head Zouhair Maghzaoui is a former Saied ally turned critic.

The other, Ayachi Zammel, was not well known before the election campaign but appeared to be gaining in popularity after he was jailed, drawing support the backers of other political movements and generating a buzz on social media.

Tunisia was for years hailed as the only relative success story of the 2011 “Arab spring” uprisings for introducing a competitive, though flawed, democracy following decades of autocratic rule.

Saied won the 2019 election on a wave of popular anger over economic failure and corruption among the elite. Frustrated in his efforts to bring change, Saied unilaterally dismissed parliament in 2021, first suspending the constitution and then rewriting it.

Opposition groups that accused him of undermining democracy staged protests. However, leaders of the main parties involved in those efforts have since been jailed and they now accuse the president of trying to rig Sunday’s election.

Saied has rejected charges that he wants to unpick democracy or has dictatorial tendencies. He instead says his opponents are traitors and that his political programme is aimed at eradicating corruption.

Few Tunisians appear enthusiastic about Sunday’s vote. A referendum Saied held on his new constitution in 2022 garnered turnout of only 30%, while 2023 elections to a new parliament from which he had removed most power had only 11% turnout.

“There is no election, just an endorsement for a person who holds all powers and can do whatever he wants and change the laws as he pleases,” said Mouhamed Raboudi, a teacher.

If a candidate gets over 50% of the vote, they will be elected president, otherwise it goes to a run-off. There has been no opinion polling. The result is not expected before Oct. 9.

JAILED OPPOSITION

Tunisia’s biggest political party, the Islamist Ennahda, has faced severe restrictions since its leader Rached Ghannouchi, the former parliament speaker, was jailed last year on charges he said were trumped up. It has not fielded a candidate.

Despite their problems, other opposition groups had hoped to challenge Saied for the presidency.

Abir Moussi, leader of the Free Constitutional Party, was imprisoned last year on charges of harming public security. Another prominent politician, Lotfi Mraihi, was jailed this year on charges of vote-buying. Both deny the allegations.

Both had said they would run in October, but were prevented from submitting their applications from prison.

Three other candidates seen as offering a credible threat to Saied were then banned from running by the electoral commission, which used to be independent but is now appointed by the president.

The administrative court ordered that they be reinstated on the ballot but the commission rejected that. The parliament elected under Saied’s new constitution then stripped the court of any electoral role.

Candidate Zammel was arrested on Sept. 5 on suspicion of falsifying election documents and sentenced to 20 months in prison on Sept. 18.

On Tuesday he was sentenced to a further 12 years in prison on the same charges. His lawyer has said these were all politically motivated.

Meanwhile, Tunisians still face a crisis in public finances that has led to periodic shortages of subsidised goods such as sugar, coffee and rice, as well as water and electricity outages, high unemployment and high inflation.

Recovering tourism numbers after the COVID pandemic and assistance from European countries worried about migration from Tunisia have helped Saied get by without submitting to unpopular spending cuts required for an IMF loan programme.

Those concerns may weigh most with voters.

“I voted for Saied years ago with enthusiasm because I thought things would get better. Unfortunately, the situation is getting worse,” said Ayman, a merchant.

“It is true that he is clean man, but he has done nothing to change. I am hesitant whether to give him another chance or vote for other candidate,” he added. (Reporting by Tarek Amara, Editing by Angus McDowall and Alison Williams)

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