EMERGING MARKETS-FX, stocks rise as tariff doubts persist; forint weakens

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Hungary industrial PPI rises to 7.9% in November

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MSCI EM FX on track for best day since September

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EM FX up 0.4%, stocks up 0.2%

By Lisa Pauline Mattackal and Purvi Agarwal

Jan 7 (Reuters) – A pullback in the dollar helped relieve pressure on most emerging market currencies on Tuesday, as investors continued to assess the likelihood of aggressive U.S. tariffs, though the euro edged higher against emerging European currencies.

MSCI’s gauge of emerging market currencies climbed 0.4%, on track for its best day in over four months, while a measure of stocks rose 0.2%.

However, Hungary’s forint weakened 0.3% against the euro , though it was slightly above a two-year low touched on Monday.

Data showed Hungary’s industrial producer price index rose to 7.9% in November, the highest in 19 months, lifted by higher energy costs and a decline in the forint amid the threat of U.S. tariffs on Europe.

“The forint remains under market pressure and will struggle to see HUF assets rally with current EUR/HUF levels and volatility,” analysts at ING said.

The euro, helped along by a weaker dollar, edged 0.1% up against the Czech crown and was little changed against Poland’s zloty.

The U.S. dollar, meanwhile, was on track for a third day of declines, with a nearly 0.6% slide on Monday after a report that aides to U.S. President-elect Donald Trump were exploring less aggressive tariffs than Trump had suggested during his presidential campaign.

That initially sent the dollar lower and lifted many emerging market stocks and currencies, particularly in Latin America, but gains were pared after Trump disputed the report in a post on Truth Social.

Uncertainty over the potential impact of Trump’s threatened tariffs and expectations of a slower pace of rate cuts from the U.S. Federal Reserve have kept the U.S. dollar strongly supported in recent weeks, pressuring emerging markets at the start of the year.

A raft of key U.S. data this week, notably employment figures on Friday, will offer clues on the U.S. rate outlook in 2025, which could provide more direction for EM traders.

“It is unlikely investors will want to consider actively selling the dollar ahead of Trump’s inauguration on 20 January on speculation over softer tariffs – but we could see a little more rebalancing of FX positioning and a little more dollar consolidation in the interim,” ING said.

Polish stocks jumped 1.3% as traders returned from a market holiday.

Annual inflation in Poland will peak at around 5% in February before starting to slow, Polish rate-setter Ludwik Kotecki said.

South Africa’s main index dipped 0.9%, while the rand edged 0.1% higher against the dollar.

Turkey’s Bist 100 was 0.4% lower after closing at an over three-week high on Monday.

HIGHLIGHTS:

** US adds Tencent, CATL to list of Chinese firms allegedly aiding Beijing’s military

** Sunac China flags difficulty making Sept dollar bond payments, sources say

** From speculators to hedgers, anticipation of weaker rupee piling up, data shows

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(Reporting by Lisa Mattackal and Purvi Agarwal in Bengaluru. Editing by Mark Potter)

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