U.S. President Donald Trump has only been in office for a matter of days, but his impact on markets has already been significant.
U.S. stocks notched back-to-back weekly gains last week and although the rally paused on Friday, the S&P 500 still hit a fresh record during the day.
It comes after the U.S. leader called for lower interest rates and cheaper oil prices in a Thursday address at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. Investors have also been betting on potential tax cuts and deregulation under the new president, sending stocks higher.
Not everyone is bullish looking ahead, however, with some — such as JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon — suggesting markets could be overpriced.
After a week of interviews with business leaders, lawmakers and investors in the Swiss ski resort, here’s what top industry names told CNBC:
Larry Fink, CEO and chairman, BlackRock
“I’m cautiously optimistic — that being said I have scenarios where it could be pretty bad,” Fink told CNBC’s Andrew Ross Sorkin.
“I believe if we were to unlock all this private capital we’re going to have enormous growth, [but], at the same time, some of this is going to unlock new inflationary pressures,” he explained. “And I do believe that’s the risk that is not factored into the market.”
Ted Pick, CEO, Morgan Stanley
Pick said he believed corporate earnings could lift growth in markets over the next 12 to 24 months as they “continue to be strong.”
“That is kind of the indicator … How many companies right now are really talking about recession, how many are talking about inflation? I feel like the earnings pull through looks pretty sanguine,” he said.
“More importantly, I know we like to look at the index, but the index is dominated by half a dozen technology companies — which, by the way are all doing great — but if you look at the deregulation possibilities in the energy sector, in the financial services sector, those sectors are still in multiples that aren’t that expensive,” Pick added.
“If you’re an investor and you think about allocating over the next 12 to 18 months, sure there could be a drawdown at the index level, but [do] you really want to be thinking about where do I have sector exposure?”
Christine Lagarde, President, European Central Bank
Lagarde told Karen Tso that there was divergence in monetary policy between the euro area and the U.S. due to a “different economic setting.”
She also said that she was not “overly concerned” about the risk that inflation abroad will be imported into Europe, adding that she expected the ECB will continue to gradually lower interest rates as the price growth rate moves toward target.
“We are certainly interested to see the U.S. grow, because growth in the U.S. has always been a favorable factor for the rest of the world,” Lagarde said.
Nicolai Tangen, CEO, Norges Bank Investment Management
“I don’t think you should give any advice to the U.S., but if you look at the risk to financial markets, I think inflation is for sure one, all driven by tariffs,” Tangen said Tuesday. “Geopolitical tensions generally are negative for financial markets and for financial returns.”
“By any measure, they are in the top 10% or 15%,” Dimon told Andrew Ross Sorkin on Wednesday, referring to U.S. stock markets. “They’re elevated and you need fairly good outcomes to justify those prices.
“We’re all hoping for that, and having pro-growth strategies helps make that happen, but there are negatives out there and they can tend to surprise you,” he added.
David Solomon, CEO, Goldman Sachs
Solomon said markets were in risk-on mode and that there was a sense of optimism in equities both because of the new U.S. administration and because of advances in technology.
Solomon also told Andrew Ross Sorkin that he was noticing a focus on growth, in the U.S., as well as in his conversations with European clients at Davos.
“I think people are optimistic, and it’s not going to be a smooth, perfect path, but people are optimistic that we are going to run a more growth-prone agenda. We’re going to free up some investment, we’re going to unlock the private sector a little but more, and that’s got to be constructive,” he said.
“It’s hard to dispute the fact that equity multiples are high … I think the equity markets exhibit a sense of optimism at the moment, but they also exhibit a sense of optimism around growth and technology, in particular this AI wave. Of course it’s not going to be a straight line, but some of the technology we’re seeing, the opportunities for that technology to improve productivity meaningfully are extraordinary.”
Khaldoon al-Mubarak, CEO, Mubadala
“Continuing on the trends we’ve seen in 2024 being a positive year in most markets … I see that continuing in 2025, I see a continuation of strong tailwinds in the in the core markets, the U.S., Asia, particularly the growth driven markets in Asia,” al-Mubarak told CNBC’s Dan Murphy Monday.
“I see a continuation of good tailwinds in technology and healthcare and financial services, life sciences,” he added. “So I would say, maybe almost the same words I used last year: cautiously optimistic. When I look at 2025, it’s going to be an exciting year.”
Ray Dalio, Founder, Bridgewater
Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio told CNBC that price-earnings ratios were high in U.S. markets, but that there could be further scope to climb in artificial intelligence beneficiaries.
“We have gone pretty far already …I think it’s led by the sectors that are great sectors, the disruptors, AI and so on.”
“I don’t think it’s been carried down to the applications of AI, to the uses of AI … the applications of AI are under-discounted I think.”
Brian Moynihan, CEO, Bank of America
Moynihan told Andrew Ross Sorkin on Tuesday he thought U.S. markets had room to climb in 2025, and that the key concern for business and financial services would be regulatory policy, rather than inflation.
“Our research team thinks there’s room to go this year, they predict the market to go up. Not as much as last year, and the unusual thing is you had a couple years in a row of very strong growth, but that was coming off a couple years of very unusual times,” he said.
Moynihan added, “I believe that if you look at the key thing for businesses generally, including financial services and the banking businesses, it’s the regulation question.”
“Tariffs will probably not really help inflation to come down. And therefore I don’t see [interest] rates coming down as fast as people believe,” he said.
C. S. Venkatakrishnan, CEO, Barclays
Venkatakrishnan, whose British bank makes around 40% of its revenue in the U.S., said he was “optimistic” about U.S. deal activity this year.
“I think there are two things driving it. One is interest rates have reached a relatively stable level. Our own economists are calling for maybe one rate cut in the U.S. over the next year,” he told Andrew Ross Sorkin.
“They’re still high, but they’re stable, so you can at least plan better, because you don’t have the volatility in rates. The second is with the change in [U.S.] administration, it should be easier for mergers to take place.”
“My message to U.S. investors and global investors too is: Britain is open for business, we want your investment.”
She also discussed Trump’s global tariff threats.
“I do understand that President Trump is concerned about countries that are running large and persistent surpluses on the trade balance with the U.S. That’s not the case for the U.K.,” Reeves said.
“We are not part of the problem here. So we, the U.K., increased trade with President Trump last time he was in office.”
Christian Sinding, CEO, EQT
Sinding, CEO of Swedish private equity firm EQT, told CNBC’s Karen Tso and Steve Sedgwick on the ground that the market for M&A and big business deals was “continuing to improve.”
“We had a record year in 2024 we did over $20 billion of investments,” he said. “We did more than $10 billion of exits, and that’s kind of building up to 2025, [when] I think a lot of the market participants are now ready to transact, whether it’s private equity or family offices or strategic buyers. And, of course, if you look at the global capital markets, the IPO market is wide open. The credit markets are strong, so we’re fairly positive looking into the next year.”
