<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="461" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/107284465-1691669496096-gettyimages-1603825613-dsc05537_eh8zi6qn-820x461.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-522307" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/107284465-1691669496096-gettyimages-1603825613-dsc05537_eh8zi6qn-820x461.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/107284465-1691669496096-gettyimages-1603825613-dsc05537_eh8zi6qn-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/107284465-1691669496096-gettyimages-1603825613-dsc05537_eh8zi6qn-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/107284465-1691669496096-gettyimages-1603825613-dsc05537_eh8zi6qn-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/107284465-1691669496096-gettyimages-1603825613-dsc05537_eh8zi6qn-1536x864.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/107284465-1691669496096-gettyimages-1603825613-dsc05537_eh8zi6qn.jpeg 1920w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Grocery items are offered for sale at a supermarket on August 09, 2023 in Chicago, Illinois.  Scott Olson | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



Contrary to what many believe, investment research firm BCA Research sees that the economy is on the cusp of a recession, and the predicted upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts will not be sufficient to steer markets out of it.



“Every single one of us now believes there’s a recession, and that’s exactly the opposite of what the market believes,” Garry Evans, BCA Research’s chief strategist of global asset allocation told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia.”



Evans pointed to signs of the economy slowing down, including what he called the “deteriorating” U.S. labor market. The U.S. Labor Department reported that the unemployment rate inched to 4.3% in July to its highest since October 2021, and a gauge for U.S. manufacturing activity fell to an eight-month low in the same month.



“There’s things that are breaking down quite rapidly now,” said the strategist.



The Fed funds futures market suggests that investors are expecting at least three rate cuts by the end of the year, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.



But according to Evans, that will not move the needle much on his projections.



“A few rate cuts are not going to prevent a recession. Average recession is 10 months… It takes something like a year before fed cuts actually start to give a boost to the economy,” he said.



“The market believes that the fed fund rate at the end of next year will be 3%. It’s currently at 5.3%. That will not happen unless there is a recession,” he added.



A recession typically occurs when there are two consecutive quarters of decline in a country’s real GDP.



Traders are also keeping their eye on the annual economic policy symposium in Jackson Hole this week, which could offer greater clarity on the interest rate outlook, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell set to speak at the gathering on Friday.



The U.S. economy has remained robust even amid ongoing inflation and elevated interest rates.



In the last century, there have been more than a dozen recessions, some lasting as long as a year and a half.



Although the U.S. isn’t officially in a recession, a survey conducted by Affirm reveals that about 3 out of 5 Americans think it is.

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<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/106079953-1565841404120gettyimages-1161631096.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-521928" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/106079953-1565841404120gettyimages-1161631096.jpeg 1600w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/106079953-1565841404120gettyimages-1161631096-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/106079953-1565841404120gettyimages-1161631096-820x461.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/106079953-1565841404120gettyimages-1161631096-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/106079953-1565841404120gettyimages-1161631096-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/106079953-1565841404120gettyimages-1161631096-1536x864.jpeg 1536w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Photo: via CNBC</figcaption></figure>



The U.S. 10-year Treasury rose on Thursday as dovish minutes from the latest Federal Reserve meeting and a large revision lower in preliminary payrolls data bolstered expectations of an interest rate cut next month.



The yield on the 10-year Treasury was up more than 2 basis points at 3.799%, while the yield on the 2-year Treasury was roughly 1 basis point higher at 3.929%.



Yields and prices move in opposite directions. One basis point equals 0.01%.



Market participants are firmly pricing in an interest rate cut at the U.S. central bank’s next meeting. Traders are currently pricing in a roughly 66% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut in September, with just over one-third pricing in a 50-basis-point rate cut, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.



It comes shortly after the summary of minutes from the Fed’s July meeting said that the “vast majority” of participants “observed that, if the data continued to come in about as expected, it would likely be appropriate to ease policy at the next meeting.”



Investors on Wednesday also reacted to a significant downward revision to U.S. hiring figures, which showed there were 818,000 fewer jobs than originally reported in the 12-month period through March 2024.



Attention now turns to comments made at the annual Jackson Hole symposium that kicks off on Thursday. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak on Friday.



On the data front, the latest reading of weekly initial jobless claims will be released at around 8:30 a.m. ET on Thursday.



A flash reading of manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for August and services PMI for August, existing home sales data for July and the Kansas City Fed’s survey for August will all follow slightly later in the session.



— CNBC’s Alex Haring, Sophie Kiderlin &amp; Jesse Pound contributed to this report.

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<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="929" height="523" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/108020956-1723732033233-gettyimages-2163386402-941_04_bsip_016707_024-1.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-521657" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/108020956-1723732033233-gettyimages-2163386402-941_04_bsip_016707_024-1.jpeg 929w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/108020956-1723732033233-gettyimages-2163386402-941_04_bsip_016707_024-1-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/108020956-1723732033233-gettyimages-2163386402-941_04_bsip_016707_024-1-820x462.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/108020956-1723732033233-gettyimages-2163386402-941_04_bsip_016707_024-1-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/108020956-1723732033233-gettyimages-2163386402-941_04_bsip_016707_024-1-768x432.jpeg 768w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 929px) 100vw, 929px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Colorized transmission electron micrograph of mpox virus particles (red) found within an infected cell (blue), cultured in the laboratory. Bsip | Universal Images Group | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



An escalating mpox outbreak is causing alarm among some health experts, who warn that the latest strain of the virus could be more fast-spreading and deadly than an early 2022 outbreak.



The World Health Organization last week declared mpox a global public health emergency following the spread of an outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) to neighboring countries.



Since the new outbreak, cases have been identified in countries where mpox is not endemic, such as Sweden, Pakistan and Thailand — although its unclear which strain has been unidentified in some of these nations.



Mpox is a viral infection which spreads through close contact and causes flu-like symptoms and lesions filled with pus. While usually mild, it can be fatal.



The WHO’s director for Europe, Dr. Hans Kluge, said Tuesday that the outbreak is “not the new Covid” and that it can be stopped with international cooperation.



But health experts have warned of the “many unknowns” surrounding the latest outbreak — and in particular a new subvariant — which could make it harder to contain.



“Clade 1b has recently emerged and there are many unknowns that need to be addressed,” said Trudie Lang, professor of global health research and director of The Global Health Network at the University of Oxford.



“There is emerging evidence of differences in transmission and symptoms; such as more commonly passed person to person and from mothers to their babies in pregnancy,” she said.



There are broadly two types of of mpox, known as clades, with the latest outbreak identified as clade 1. Compared with the 2022 strain, clade 2, the current strain, appears to spread more easily and has a higher fatality rate.



A newly identified clade 1b subvariant has been found to be particularly prevalent among young people and appears to be spreading through sexual networks, Jonas Albarnaz, a research fellow specializing in poxviruses at The Pirbright Institute, said.



However, he noted more data is needed to understand its transmission dynamics and to “inform the control strategies.”



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-more-vulnerable-countries">More vulnerable countries</h2>



Clade 1 is already known for causing more severe disease in young children, pregnant women and immunocompromised people. That has hastened the outbreak in countries where certain health conditions are more prevalent and those with poorer health-care systems.



“As mpox disease is more severe in immunocompromised individuals, it is also a concern that the current outbreak is taking place in a region where HIV prevalence is relatively high but access to antiretroviral drugs is poor,” said Brian Ferguson, associate professor of immunology at the University of Cambridge.



Ongoing conflicts in parts of Africa — such as the DRC, where a large number of displaced people have relocated to refugee camps — have also worsened sanitation conditions and accelerated the spread.



So far this year, more than 15,000 cases and at least 537 deaths have been reported from the outbreak in the DRC, according to the WHO, with more cases reported elsewhere.



Ferguson said that more cases are likely to be identified in the coming days and weeks given the lack of controls in place to prevent the spread from country to country. He also said that lessons had not been learned from the prior outbreak, which was declared a public health emergency in July 2022 before the designation was removed in May 2023.



“The lack of activity in the intervening period has resulted in what could now become a new global outbreak. There should have been a greater effort to produce and distribute vaccines to the affected areas, but this has not happened,” he said.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-vaccines-for-younger-people"><a></a>Vaccines for younger people</h2>



Danish biotech firm Bavarian Nordic, one of the only companies with an approved mpox vaccine, said Tuesday that it would decide this week whether to ramp up production of its jab even before having orders lined up, according to Reuters.



That comes after the company on Friday submitted data to the European Union’s drug regulator to extend the use of its mpox vaccine for adolescents.



CEO Paul Chaplin told CNBC at the time that obtaining approval for 12- to 17-year-olds would be crucial in tackling the outbreak of the latest strain of the virus.



“More than 70% of the cases in Africa currently are in people younger than 18, so it’s going to be critical that our vaccine can be used in this younger age group,” he said.

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<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="462" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/108023023-1724177843627-Shein_Temu-820x462.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-521505" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/108023023-1724177843627-Shein_Temu-820x462.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/108023023-1724177843627-Shein_Temu-300x169.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/108023023-1724177843627-Shein_Temu-160x90.jpg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/108023023-1724177843627-Shein_Temu-768x432.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/108023023-1724177843627-Shein_Temu.jpg 929w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Shein and Temu. Yuki Iwamura | Bloomberg | Stefani Reynolds | AFP | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



Chinese-linked fast-fashion giant Shein is suing rival Temu, alleging the retailer stole its designs and built an empire using counterfeiting, intellectual property infringement and fraud. 



The suit, filed Monday in Washington, D.C., federal court, comes as Shein itself fends off similar allegations from a wide variety of brands and independent artists, including Levi Strauss and H&amp;M. 



In its complaint, Shein alleges that Temu, owned by PDD Holdings, is “masquerading” as a legitimate online marketplace because it encourages its sellers to steal other brands’ designs and then prevents them from removing products from the platform, even after they have admitted to infringement.



“Temu draws U.S. consumers into downloading and using its mobile application with promises of extremely low pricing. But Temu is not profiting from the sale of these products, which are priced so low that Temu must subsidize each sale, losing money on every transaction,” the complaint said.&nbsp;



“Only by encouraging its sellers to infringe the intellectual property rights of others and sell counterfeit or sub-standard goods can Temu hope to minimize the massive losses it is subsidizing,” the lawsuit added.



The dueling e-tailers have taken the retail industry by storm with their ultra low-priced products and their ability to respond to trends far faster than their legacy competitors. Along the way, the two have racked up a mountain of criticism related to their labor practices, their connections to the Chinese government and their alleged use of other brands’ designs. 



As the two jockey for market share, they have taken to the courts to accuse each other of a series of scandalous allegations. Last year, Temu sued Shein over copyright concerns and allegations that it uses “mafia-style intimidation of suppliers” to bully them into exclusivity agreements. 



In Shein’s complaint, the company accused Temu of “brazen” illicit behavior. It said at least one of Temu’s employees stole “valuable trade secrets” that identified best-selling Shein products, along with internal pricing information, to help it in its efforts to compete.&nbsp;



“Armed with this stolen information, Temu then directed its sellers to copy those and other best-selling Shein products and sell knock-off versions on Temu’s website and mobile application,” the complaint said.&nbsp;



“Temu is no garden-variety infringer,” the suit said. “In order to advertise the counterfeit versions of Shein products, Temu has reproduced virtually identical copyrighted images of Shein products and used them, or instructed sellers to use them, as promotional images on the Temu website and mobile application.”



The company goes as far as to say that Temu has falsely pretended to be Shein on social media site X in an effort to “misdirect customers away from the Shein platform to the Temu platform.”&nbsp;



The complaint includes a screenshot of a Temu-sponsored Google ad that shows Shein in the headline, but Temu as the web address.&nbsp;



“To further deceive consumers, Temu has instructed its paid social media influencers to falsely claim that Temu products which are often counterfeits of Shein products are cheaper and of higher quality than genuine Shein goods,” the complaint said. “Temu has gone to great lengths to imitate Shein, including by poaching resources, employees, and suppliers from Shein.”&nbsp;



Shein’s 80-page complaint includes more than a dozen examples of clothes and designs that Temu allegedly ripped off.&nbsp;



It has asked the court to rule in its favor and enter an order that would prohibit Temu from using Shein’s confidential information, among other requests.&nbsp;



Temu did not immediately respond to CNBC’s request for comment.

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A recession is coming in the U.S., and ‘a few rate cuts’ won’t prevent it, says strategist

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Pro-Palestinian protestors converge outside the DNC

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