<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="461" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/108063216-1731601889272-gettyimages-2183863696-20241106_city_skyline_mist_002-820x461.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-554559" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/108063216-1731601889272-gettyimages-2183863696-20241106_city_skyline_mist_002-820x461.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/108063216-1731601889272-gettyimages-2183863696-20241106_city_skyline_mist_002-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/108063216-1731601889272-gettyimages-2183863696-20241106_city_skyline_mist_002-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/108063216-1731601889272-gettyimages-2183863696-20241106_city_skyline_mist_002-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/108063216-1731601889272-gettyimages-2183863696-20241106_city_skyline_mist_002-1536x864.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/108063216-1731601889272-gettyimages-2183863696-20241106_city_skyline_mist_002.jpeg 1600w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Bank of England in the City of London on 6th November 2024 in London, United Kingdom. The City of London is a city, ceremonial county and local government district that contains the primary central business district CBD of London. The City of London is widely referred to simply as the City is also colloquially known as the Square Mile. (photo by Mike Kemp/In Pictures via Getty Images) Mike Kemp | In Pictures | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



The U.K. economy grew less than expected in the third quarter of the year, showing only marginal growth following a rebound at the start of the year, initial figures showed Friday.



Gross domestic product came in at&nbsp;0.1% in the&nbsp;three months to September compared to the previous quarter. That’s&nbsp;below the 0.2% growth expected by economists polled by Reuters and&nbsp;follows an expansion of 0.5% in the second quarter of the year.



U.K.’s dominant services sector also grew just 0.1% on the quarter, the Office for National Statistics said. Construction rose by 0.8%, while production slipped 0.2% in the month.



It comes after inflation in the U.K. fell sharply to 1.7% in September, dipping below the Bank of England’s 2% target for the first time since April 2021. The fall in inflation helped pave the way for the central bank to cut rates by 25 basis points on Nov. 7, bringing its key rate to 4.75%.



The Bank of England said last week it expects the Labour Government’s tax-raising budget to boost GDP by 0.75 percentage points in a year’s time. Policymakers also noted that the government’s fiscal plan had led to an increase in their inflation forecasts.



U.K. Finance Minister Rachel Reeves said Friday she was “not satisfied” with the numbers.



“At my Budget, I took the difficult choices to fix the foundations and stabilise our public finances.&nbsp;Now we are going to deliver growth through investment and reform to create more jobs and more money in people’s pockets, get the NHS back on its feet, rebuild Britain and secure our borders in a decade of national renewal,” she said in a release.



A rate cut at the BOE’s next meeting in December now looks “improbable,” according to Suren Thiru, economics director at the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales. He said inflation risks and growing global headwinds will likely prevent policymakers from pursuing back-to-back rate cuts.



“These figures suggest that the economy went off the boil even before the budget, as weaker business and consumer confidence helped weaken output across the third quarter, particularly in September,” Thiru said in emailed comments.



The outcome of the recent U.S. election has fostered much uncertainty about the global economic impact of another term from President-elect Donald Trump. While Trump’s proposed tariffs are expected to be widely inflationary and hit the European economy hard, some analysts have said such measures could provide opportunities for the British economy.



Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gave little away last week on the bank’s views of Trump’s tariff agenda, but he did reference risks around global fragmentation.



“Let’s wait and see where things get to. I’m not going to prejudge what might happen, what might not happen,” he told reporters during a press briefing.



The British pound ticked slightly higher by 0.1% against the U.S. dollar at 7:33 a.m. in London. It dipped 0.15% against the euro following Friday’s GDP release.

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<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="800" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/TJORLERHRFO4NIRPMFSZ32CFMA.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-529012" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/TJORLERHRFO4NIRPMFSZ32CFMA.jpg 800w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/TJORLERHRFO4NIRPMFSZ32CFMA-300x205.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/TJORLERHRFO4NIRPMFSZ32CFMA-132x90.jpg 132w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/TJORLERHRFO4NIRPMFSZ32CFMA-768x525.jpg 768w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: An oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia, June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



Oil prices may see a drastic fall in the event that oil alliance OPEC+ unwinds its existing output cuts, said market watchers who are predicting a bearish year ahead for crude.



“There is more fear about 2025′s oil prices than there has been since years — any year I can remember, since the Arab Spring,” said Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis at OPIS, an oil price reporting agency.



“You could get down to $30 or $40 a barrel if OPEC unwound and didn’t have any kind of real agreement to rein in production. They’ve seen their market share really dwindle through the years,” Kloza added.



A decline to $40 a barrel would mean around a 40% erasure of current crude prices. Global benchmark Brent is currently trading at $72 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures are around $68 per barrel.



Given that oil demand growth next year probably won’t be much more than 1 million barrels a day, a full unwinding of OPEC+ supply cuts in 2025 would “undoubtedly see a very steep slide in crude prices, possibly toward $40 a barrel,” Henning Gloystein, head of energy, climate and resources at Eurasia Group, told CNBC.&nbsp;



Similarly, MST Marquee’s senior energy analyst Saul Kavonic posited that should OPEC+ unwind cuts without regard to demand, it would “effectively amount to a price war over market share that could send oil to lows not seen since Covid.”



However, the alliance is more likely to opt for a gradual unwinding early next year, compared to a full scale and immediate one, the analysts said.



The oil cartel has been exercising discipline in maintaining its voluntary output cuts, to the point of extending them.



In September, OPEC+ postponed plans to begin gradually rolling back on the 2.2 million barrels per day of voluntary cuts by two months in an effort to stem the slide of oil prices. The 2.2 million bpd cut, which was implemented over the second and third quarters, had been due to expire at the end of September.&nbsp;



At the start of this month, the oil cartel again decided to delay the planned oil output increase by another month to the end of December.



Oil prices have been weighed by a sluggish post-Covid recovery in demand from China, the world’s second-largest economy and leading crude oil importer. In its monthly report released Tuesday, OPEC lowered its 2025 global oil demand growth forecast from 1.6 million barrels per day to 1.5 million barrels per day.



The pressured prices were also conflagrated by a perceivably oversupplied market, especially as key oil producers outside the OPEC alliance like the U.S., Canada, Guyana and Brazil are also planning to add supply, Gloystein highlighted.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-bearish-year-ahead-for-oil"><a></a>Bearish year ahead for oil</h2>



The market consensus is that there’ll be a “substantial” oil stock build next year, said Citibank energy strategist Martoccia Francesco.



“Should the producers group proceed with their production plan, the market surplus could nearly double… reaching as much as 1.6 million barrels per day,” said Francesco.&nbsp;



Even if OPEC+ doesn’t unwind the cuts, the future ofl prices is still looking break. Citi analysts expect Brent price to average $60 per barrel next year.



Further fueling the bearish outlook is the incoming administration of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, whose return is associated by some with a potential trade war, said analysts who spoke to CNBC.



“If we do get a trade war — and a lot of economists think that a trade war is possible, and particularly against China — we could see much, much lower prices,” said OPIS’ Kloza.



Trump has also touted a “drill baby drill” policy for U.S. producers, vowing to cut energy prices in half.



For that to happen to retail gasoline prices, oil would need to drop to “below $40” per barrel, said Matt Smith, Kpler’s lead oil analyst.



Right now, retail gasoline prices are at a “sweet spot” at $3 per gallon, where consumers do not feel the pinch and input prices are still sufficiently high for producers, Smith added.

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<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="461" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/107351661-17036182092023-10-24t101848z_1359207624_rc2yy3ac3wuf_rtrmadp_0_fintech-crypto-bitcoin-820x461.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-553187" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/107351661-17036182092023-10-24t101848z_1359207624_rc2yy3ac3wuf_rtrmadp_0_fintech-crypto-bitcoin-820x461.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/107351661-17036182092023-10-24t101848z_1359207624_rc2yy3ac3wuf_rtrmadp_0_fintech-crypto-bitcoin-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/107351661-17036182092023-10-24t101848z_1359207624_rc2yy3ac3wuf_rtrmadp_0_fintech-crypto-bitcoin-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/107351661-17036182092023-10-24t101848z_1359207624_rc2yy3ac3wuf_rtrmadp_0_fintech-crypto-bitcoin-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/107351661-17036182092023-10-24t101848z_1359207624_rc2yy3ac3wuf_rtrmadp_0_fintech-crypto-bitcoin-1536x864.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/107351661-17036182092023-10-24t101848z_1359207624_rc2yy3ac3wuf_rtrmadp_0_fintech-crypto-bitcoin.jpeg 1858w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Dado Ruvic | Reuters</figcaption></figure>



Bitcoin was trading just shy of $90,000 Monday night after breaching $80,000 just a day earlier.



The flagship cryptocurrency was last higher by 12% at $89,100, according to Coin Metrics. Earlier Monday, it rose as high as $89,623.00. Its price is expected by many investors to continue making fresh records on its way up to $100,000 later this year.



“Bitcoin is now in price discovery mode after breaking through all-time highs early last Wednesday morning when it was officially declared that Trump won the election,” said Mike Colonnese, an analyst at H.C. Wainwright. “Strong positive sentiment is likely to persist through the balance of 2024 and [we] see bitcoin prices potentially reaching the six-figure mark by the end of this year.”



Crypto investors have been cheering President-elect Donald Trump’s promises to make the regulatory environment more supportive and even friendly toward crypto businesses, which have long struggled with a lack of clarity of the rules of the road.



While bitcoin has long been deemed a safe asset in Washington – that is, not subject to securities laws – the long tail of cryptocurrencies and crypto-related startups have been operating in a risky grey area.



“That’s just shifted 180 degrees,” Matt Hougan, chief investment officer of Bitwise Asset Management, told CNBC. “We’re now in a positive regulatory environment, we now have tailwinds from that, and that comes in the case of a market that was already in a bull market … that’s going to push us higher.”



Ether was trading higher by 5.8% Monday evening. Payments token XRP rose nearly 4% and the token linked to decentralized finance project Polygon gained more than 4%. Dogecoin has been one of the biggest winners – likely due to its connection with Elon Musk, who helped get Trump elected. It’s up 38%.



In the stock market, Coinbase and MicroStrategy gained about 3% and 5%, respectively, in extended trading. In the regular session on Monday, Coinbase surged 19% to trade above $300 for the first time since 2021. It’s now about 6% from its high from that year.



Traders and analysts agree this rally is just only beginning.



“It does seem like there’s an air gap between the previous [bitcoin] all-time highs around $72,000 and $100,000,” Hougan said. “It’s hard exactly to see what would force sellers to come into this market and halt the momentum before we get to that level. Of course, there are no guarantees. You could see pullbacks, but we’re in a new crypto market cycle. … I do think that we are right to be bullish and the bias is still on the upside.”

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Bitcoin reached a fresh all-time high near $81,000 and futures premiums soared, in a clear sign that investors believe the record-run in the world’s largest cryptocurrency is poised for even more gains on the back of U.S. elections that saw a swell of pro-crypto candidates win office.



Open interest in bitcoin’s price surpassing $90,000 rose to more than $2.8 billion on the popular Deribit derivatives exchange, one of a few crypto native platforms that offers futures trading. Deribit encompasses most of the offshore options market.



“The options market’s bias is heavily toward continued momentum. Call options trade at a premium to puts, and open interest in out-of-the-money calls has grown,”&nbsp;Vetle Lunde,&nbsp;head of research at K33 Research, told CNBC.



A call option gives the buyer the right to buy shares of an underlying asset at a certain price for a specified period of time. Buying a call option is a bet the asset price will move higher. Buying a put option is a bet the asset price will fall.



The CME derivates exchange offers bitcoin futures contracts and is a popular way for institutions in the U.S. to make bets on the future price of bitcoin. Velde told CNBC that on Friday CME premiums for ether and bitcoin averaged 14.5% and 14%, respectively. Ahead of the election, Velde says these premiums sat at 7%, and had spent a majority of the past half year hovering slightly below 10%.



“The recent surge is a meaningful deviation higher emphasizing the bullish flows of late,” he added, noting that yields more or less stabilized well into the double digits after the election became clear.



“Alongside the growth in leverage, we saw the first meaningful example of growing yields in offshore derivatives, indicative of the move being led by determined risk-takers positioning for further upside,” said Velde.



The early innings of bitcoin’s push higher coincided with substantial growth in open interest in perpetual swaps, or contracts that allow buyers to speculate on where they think prices are headed without a set expiration date.



But liquidity in crypto markets on weekends is typically poorer than during weekdays, as neither CME futures nor ETFs are open to trade, so moves thus tend to overreact and substantially retrace once these markets open again, according to Velde.



President-elect Donald Trump promised on the campaign trail to turn the United States into the “crypto capital of the planet.” His multiple pledges to the crypto community included launching a national crypto stockpile with the more than $16 billion in bitcoin the U.S. government has amassed through asset seizures, as well as slashing interest rates. The easing of monetary policy typically dovetails with a surge in crypto prices since it makes it cheaper to borrow money.



The Federal Reserve, which guides the country’s monetary policy, sets the benchmark rate. It also, by design, operates independently from the White House. On Thursday, the Fed approved its second consecutive interest rate cut.



On the back of election results and the Fed’s unanimous vote to again slash the benchmark rate, the crypto market broadly surged into the weekend. Ether eclipsed bitcoin’s rise, up 30% in the last seven days, and solana’s market cap topped $100 billion on Sunday.



The total market cap of all spot bitcoin ETFs is now above $80 billion, and in the last three trading days alone, the spot funds collectively added $2.3 billion.



Within fintech, companies tied to crypto were some of the top performers, after candidates funded by the crypto industry won races up and down the ballot.



Coinbase shares jumped 48% for the week, their strongest performance since January 2023. Coinbase was one of the top corporate donors in the election cycle, giving more than $75 million to Fairshake and its affiliate PACs, including a fresh pledge of $25 million to support the pro-crypto super PAC in the 2026 midterms.



Trump has vowed to oust SEC Chair Gary Gensler, which potentially bodes well for companies like Coinbase fighting the regulator in court over alleged securities offenses.



“Tuesday night was certainly a big night for crypto and the crypto voter,” Coinbase’s chief legal officer Paul Grewal said in an interview. “We’re going to have the most pro-crypto Congress ever, and Coinbase has played some part in all of that.”



Robinhood, which allows users to buy and sell a number of digital currencies, rose 27% for the week. The online brokerage received a Wells Notice from the SEC in May, a move that often precedes formal charges.



Robinhood’s general manager for its crypto unit told CNBC that the goal at Robinhood is to be able to work within the administration.



“If you think about crypto, it’s a very fast-moving pace. It’s complicated, it was made by engineers, for engineers,” said Johann Kerbrat, the Vice President and General Manager of&nbsp;Robinhood&nbsp;Crypto. “We want to help policymakers to understand it and help them drive the right protections for the customers.”

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