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<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="410" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/108104863-1740053249386-gettyimages-2192627338-vcg111540435779-820x410.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-589024" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/108104863-1740053249386-gettyimages-2192627338-vcg111540435779-820x410.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/108104863-1740053249386-gettyimages-2192627338-vcg111540435779-300x150.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/108104863-1740053249386-gettyimages-2192627338-vcg111540435779-160x80.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/108104863-1740053249386-gettyimages-2192627338-vcg111540435779-768x384.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/108104863-1740053249386-gettyimages-2192627338-vcg111540435779.jpeg 884w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">BEIJING, CHINA &#8211; JANUARY 06: The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) building is seen on January 6, 2025 in Beijing, China.  Visual China Group | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



China could cut its main policy rate as soon as next month following the country’s annual parliamentary meeting, economists told CNBC, after the country’s central bank kept the loan prime rates steady Thursday.



The People’s Bank of China held the 1-year LPR at 3.1%, and the 5-year LPR at 3.6%. The decision was in line with Reuters poll estimates.



The LPRs — normally charged to banks’ best clients — are calculated monthly based on designated commercial banks’ proposed rates submitted to the PBOC. The one-year LPR influences corporate loans and most household loans in China, while the five-year LPR serves as a benchmark for mortgage rates.



“Pressure on the banks’ net interest margins and exchange rate amid slower pace of the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts all lead to a stabilization of China’s policy rate,” said Bruce Pang, adjunct associate professor at Chinese University of Hong Kong business school.



Pang, however, expects a 50-basis-point cut to the reserve requirement ratio as soon as next month and anticipates the 7-day reverse repo rate — the country’s main policy rate — to be lowered by 40 to 50 basis points this year.



China’s central bank frequently uses the 7-day reverse repo rate — which controls the amount of liquidity in the banking system — to signal its monetary policy intentions and guide the LPR in the desired direction.



The PBOC has kept its 7-day rate has steady at 1.5% since a cut in September, as the central bank sought to defend the yuan that faces downward pressure amid threats of higher tariffs.



Supporting the yuan, however, comes with risks to the economy, as a weaker yuan could help keep Chinese exports competitively priced abroad, while a stronger currency makes imports more expensive at a time when consumer demand has been weak.



“We still think [the 7-day rate] has a decent chance to be cut in Q1,” Lynn Song, chief economist at ING said, as the real interest rate remains relatively high. He expects PBOC to cut rates after the annual parliamentary meeting in Beijing next month.



“Cutting rates further could help encourage investment and consumption,” Song said, adding that the pressure on yuan had subsided recently, making the case for a rate cut.



China is set to release its 2025 full-year growth target at its parliamentary meeting chaired by Xi Jinping. The event, which typically lasts about a week, is scheduled to kick off on March 5.



The policymakers are likely to keep the official real growth target unchanged at “around 5%” while lowering the consumer inflation target to “around 2%” from “around 3%” last year, according to Goldman Sachs.



The Wall Street bank expects policymakers to reiterate their pro-growth monetary easing pledges at the meeting while committing to stabilizing the yuan in a “reasonable range.”



PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng said at a conference in Saudi Arabia on Sunday that a stable yuan has been critical to maintaining global financial and economic stability. Pan also reiterated Beijing’s commitment to adopt a proactive fiscal policy and an accommodative monetary policy this year.



Chinese offshore yuan has fallen nearly 2.5% against the greenback since Donald Trump’s election victory in November, after recouping some of the losses in recent weeks. It strengthened 0.20% on Thursday to trade at 7.2673 on the dollar.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-spurring-growth-vs-steadying-yuan"><a></a>Spurring growth vs. steadying yuan</h2>



The world’s second-largest economy has been struggling to emerge from a prolonged property crisis and tepid consumer demand. China’s manufacturing activity unexpectedly contracted in January, while services activity weakened, keeping alive calls for more stimulus.



While the PBOC officials said late last year, they would cut banks’ reserve requirement ratio and interest rates at an “appropriate time,” the rate cuts are yet to materialize, as policymakers face more trade tensions with the U.S.



Since the inauguration last month, U.S. President Donald Trump has imposed a 10% tariff on all imports from China, on top of existing tariffs of up to 25%.



However, market concerns over trade tensions are easing, following reports that Trump may strike a wide-ranging deal with China, a team of analysts at DBS Bank said in a note on Thursday.



“Increased hopes of a U.S.-China comprehensive deal may limit any deterioration in RMB sentiment going forward, even as markets await further Trump tariffs,” the bank said.



Constraining PBOC’s easing steps is also the Fed’s slower pace with policy rate cuts. The U.S. Federal Reserve officials agreed they would need to see inflation come down further before lowering interest rates, according to the minutes of their January meeting, released Wednesday.

108104863-1740053249386-gettyimages-2192627338-vcg111540435779

China is likely to cut its benchmark policy rate next month, economists say, after PBOC keeps LPR steady

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<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/108104180-1739952365535-gettyimages-2168418794-20240827_borough_market_014-820x547.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-588196" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/108104180-1739952365535-gettyimages-2168418794-20240827_borough_market_014-820x547.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/108104180-1739952365535-gettyimages-2168418794-20240827_borough_market_014-300x200.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/108104180-1739952365535-gettyimages-2168418794-20240827_borough_market_014-135x90.jpeg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/108104180-1739952365535-gettyimages-2168418794-20240827_borough_market_014-768x512.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/108104180-1739952365535-gettyimages-2168418794-20240827_borough_market_014-1536x1024.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/108104180-1739952365535-gettyimages-2168418794-20240827_borough_market_014-scaled.jpeg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Fruit and veg stall Borough Market on 27th August 2024 in London, United Kingdom. Borough Market is a retail food market and farmers market in Southwark. It is one of the largest and oldest food markets in London, with a market on the site dating back to at least the 12th century.  Mike Kemp | In Pictures | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



The U.K.’s inflation rate rose sharply to 3% in January, coming in above analyst expectations, according to data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on Wednesday.



Economists polled by Reuters had expected a reading of 2.8% in the twelve months to January.



Britain’s consumer price index (CPI) fell to a lower-than-expected 2.5% in December,&nbsp;with core price growth also slowing further.



Core inflation, which excludes more volatile energy, food, alcohol and tobacco prices, rose by 3.7% in the 12 months to January, which was up from 3.2% in the previous month. Notably, the core services annual rate rose from 4.4% to 5.0%, the ONS said.



“Inflation increased sharply this month to its highest annual rate since March last year. The rise was driven by air fares not falling as much as we usually see at this time of year, partly impacted by the timing of flights over Christmas and New Year. This was the weakest January dip since 2020,” Grant Fitzner, the ONS’ chief economist, commented Wednesday.



“After falling this time last year, the cost of food and non-alcoholic drinks increased, particularly meat, bread and cereals. Private school fees were another factor, as new VAT [a sales tax] rules meant prices rose nearly 13% this month,” he said, in comments on the X social media platform.



Responding to the latest data, U.K. Chancellor Rachel Reeves said that delivering economic growth and “getting more money in people’s pockets” were her priorities, while acknowledging that “millions of families are still struggling to make ends meet.”



The British pound was little changed against the dollar following the data release, trading at $1.2615.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-sluggish-growth"><a></a>Sluggish growth</h2>



The U.K.’s inflation rate had hit a more than three-year low of 1.7% in September, but monthly prices have picked up since on the back of higher fuel costs and services fees rising faster than the price of goods.



Earlier in February, sluggish growth and a recent drop in inflation prompted the Bank of England to make its first interest rate cut of the year, bringing its benchmark rate down to 4.5%.



The central bank signaled further rate trims were coming but noted that higher global energy costs and regulated price changes are expected to push up headline inflation to 3.7% in the third quarter of 2025, “even as underlying domestic inflationary pressures are expected to wane further.” The BOE expects the inflation rate to fall back to the 2% target by 2027.



Along with listing its price growth outlook, the central bank also halved the U.K.’s economic growth forecast from 1.5% to 0.75% this year.



The latest leap in CPI inflation was no surprise, but it was larger than everyone expected, Ruth Gregory, deputy chief U.K. economist at Capital Economics, noted Wednesday.



“It’s no secret that higher energy prices will push CPI inflation further above 3% over the next 7 months. We doubt this will prevent the Bank from cutting rates further. Indeed, we still think CPI inflation will fall below 2% in 2026 as the fading of some temporary effects and the weak economy feed through to lower services inflation,” she said in emailed comments.



“The risk is that the rise in inflation proves more persistent and rates are cut more slowly than we expect, or not as far,” Gregory added.

108104180-1739952365535-gettyimages-2168418794-20240827_borough_market_014

UK inflation leaps to higher-than-expected 3% in January

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/108103308-1739836131646-gettyimages-492558314-CHINA_ECONOMY-820x547.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-588161" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/108103308-1739836131646-gettyimages-492558314-CHINA_ECONOMY-820x547.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/108103308-1739836131646-gettyimages-492558314-CHINA_ECONOMY-300x200.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/108103308-1739836131646-gettyimages-492558314-CHINA_ECONOMY-135x90.jpeg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/108103308-1739836131646-gettyimages-492558314-CHINA_ECONOMY-768x512.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/108103308-1739836131646-gettyimages-492558314-CHINA_ECONOMY-1536x1024.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/108103308-1739836131646-gettyimages-492558314-CHINA_ECONOMY-scaled.jpeg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">A man carrying a kite in the shape of the Chinese national flag walks along the Bund while buildings of Pudong’s Lujiazui financial district  in Shanghai, China Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



China is starting to see a rebound in its mergers and acquisition scene after years of decline as the government’s stimulus measures start to bear fruit, while pressure from Donald Trump’s tariffs is also driving industry consolidation.



In 2024, China’s M&amp;A activity was on course to log its fifth straight year of decline, until the final quarter of the year, which saw a sudden acceleration in activity. The value of deals conducted during that period jumped 78.5% to $129 billion from $72 billion in the previous quarter, data from Dealogic showed.



And deal-making is about to pick up more, according to industry watchers whom CNBC spoke to.



The uptick in deal flow in the fourth quarter of 2024 was in part fueled by stimulus efforts introduced by policymakers in late September, said Vivian Wong, head of M&amp;A Analytics at ION Analytics, which is under the same group as Dealogic. Those measures aimed to consolidate domestic industries in order to enhance competitiveness in China’s slowing economy, added Wong.



China’s M&amp;A volume has been trending downward since 2020. Furthermore, the total value of deals logged in 2024 is about 45% less than the $553 billion generated in 2020, according to data from Dealogic.



This was largely because of weak overall economic activity in China and the ensuing bearish sentiments, said Theodore Shou, chief investment officer at Skybound Capital, an alternative assets manager.



The conservative positioning of Chinese corporations also led to less appetite for private market transactions in the past couple of years, he added.



However, 2025 will “see significant merger and acquisition activities involving China,” Zhe Yu, a partner at Shanghai-based Zhong Lun Law Firm, which offers legal support for M&amp;A ventures and IPO deals in China, told CNBC.&nbsp;



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-a-hedge-against-trump-tariffs"><a></a>A hedge against Trump tariffs?</h2>



Apart from Beijing’s stimulus measures, the flurry of tariff threats before U.S. President Trump’s term and their eventual implementation are also a key driving force for Chinese companies to adapt by diversifying their supply chains and ensuring they have the means to do so, said Deloitte’s APAC M&amp;A Services Leaders Stanley Lah, who is also the firm’s deputy leader of financial advisory in China.



Trump signed an order imposing 10% tariffs against China on Feb. 1. They came into effect Feb. 4 and will apply on top of the existing tariffs of up to 25% on Chinese goods levied during his first presidency.



That development will nudge domestic companies toward consolidation as they look for alternative shipping routes to the U.S. that avoid China as a point of origin, as well as try to become more effective in global markets, Lah said.



“It’s something they need to do quickly, and buying is faster than building a green field,” he added, referring to building facilities and infrastructure from scratch.



This pressure is most keenly felt by small companies in China.



In the third quarter of 2024, China’s micro and small enterprises reported average revenue of 136,000 yuan ($18,700), marking a 4.8% decline compared with the same period in 2023, according to Peking University’s Centre for Enterprise Research’s most recent survey on MSEs. 



To stay afloat, many MSEs had to cut back on hiring and shrink their operations, among a slew of cost-cutting strategies, the survey said.



M&amp;A transactions also allow small companies to better compete on an international scale. For example, Chinese banks or security houses need to consolidate and attain a large-enough scale to prevent downsizing, said Ernst &amp; Young’s Asia-Pacific IPO Leader Ringo Choi.&nbsp;



China saw its biggest wave of rural bank mergers last year as smaller banks were plagued by weak loan growth and increasing bad loans, according to Reuters’ analysis of government data.



“It no longer makes economic sense for small players to reinvent the wheels again and again just to stay in the game and ultimately, they will not be able to afford that,” said Skybound Capital’s Shou. Chinese companies are competing “too forcefully” with each other, which is lowering their margins, he added.



Corporate consolidations also offer an attractive exit strategy for some of those companies, especially as filing an IPO in the Chinese stock markets becomes increasingly uncertain, Yu said.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a></a>Fewer regulatory hurdles, more financial means</h2>



Last September, in a bid to enhance deal-making efficiency, the China Securities Regulatory Commission announced that it will simplify its approval processes and cut down the review time for qualified companies. It will also encourage firms to raise capital for their M&amp;A deals in phases.&nbsp;



Previously, deal-makers faced long approval periods and had to contend with extensive information disclosure demands that came with antitrust and data security concerns.



While antitrust laws and hurdles remain, merging filing requirements have relaxed significantly, Yu said. “Many transactions that would otherwise have been subject to merger filing clearance are no longer required to be filed.”



Interest rates in China are also likely to remain at current levels, which may keep M&amp;A costs at a reasonable level, he added.



Companies with a stronger balance sheet and cash piles also have the capacity to buy out firms in a weaker position as a form of investment, said Lah.



Bigger domestic companies are accumulating large reserves of cash, with Chinese-listed firms paying out a record 2.4 trillion yuan in dividends last year. Goldman Sachs estimates that Chinese companies’ cash distribution could hit $3.5 trillion yuan this year to notch a new high.



Big tech companies like Pinduoduo, a Chinese online retailer, currently have a lot of dry powder, which could go into dividend payouts, share buybacks and even M&amp;A, Ernst &amp; Young’s Choi observed.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a></a>More domestic M&amp;A</h2>



A larger portion of the incoming M&amp;A deals will center around domestic transactions rather than cross-border ones, said Deloitte’s Lah, a sentiment echoed by Shou. Both believe that foreign interest in buying Chinese companies has yet to recover.



Moreover, cross-border M&amp;A activities in the high-tech sector is unlikely because of geopolitical factors, said Yu.



Still, Chinese companies may bail out failing foreign peers by merging with or acquiring them, said Shou.



Domestically, some Chinese companies may opt for joint ventures in attempts to expand to new markets, Shou said. The “really hot sectors” which are doing well, such as technology and green energy, will see money coming in, according to Lah.



Similarly, Zhong Lun Law Firm’s Yu sees many potential consolidation opportunities in industries related to new energy, such as solar and wind energy and nickel mining, among others.



Less competitive industries and companies could also let themselves be bought out as a means to survive, the industry watchers whom CNBC spoke to suggested.



One sector that will experience more deals is “fragmented industries with struggling players,” Lah said, because it’s “difficult to make profits as a small company.”



“They need a bigger scale,” or merge with a company with “bigger performance to survive in this new normal,” he said

108103308-1739836131646-gettyimages-492558314-CHINA_ECONOMY

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<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/107392987-17114704652024-03-08t094552z_60519508_rc2ao0aauku6_rtrmadp_0_cocoa-ivorycoast-820x547.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-587761" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/107392987-17114704652024-03-08t094552z_60519508_rc2ao0aauku6_rtrmadp_0_cocoa-ivorycoast-820x547.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/107392987-17114704652024-03-08t094552z_60519508_rc2ao0aauku6_rtrmadp_0_cocoa-ivorycoast-300x200.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/107392987-17114704652024-03-08t094552z_60519508_rc2ao0aauku6_rtrmadp_0_cocoa-ivorycoast-135x90.jpeg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/107392987-17114704652024-03-08t094552z_60519508_rc2ao0aauku6_rtrmadp_0_cocoa-ivorycoast-768x512.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/107392987-17114704652024-03-08t094552z_60519508_rc2ao0aauku6_rtrmadp_0_cocoa-ivorycoast-1536x1024.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/107392987-17114704652024-03-08t094552z_60519508_rc2ao0aauku6_rtrmadp_0_cocoa-ivorycoast-scaled.jpeg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Cocoa pods are pictured at a farm in Sinfra, Ivory Coast April 29, 2023.  Luc Gnago | Reuters</figcaption></figure>



Strong rains across Ivory Coast’s central regions are expected to strengthen cocoa trees and improve growing conditions for the April-to-September mid-crop, farmers said on Monday.



Ivory Coast, the world’s top producer of the main ingredient in chocolate, is in the dry season that runs from mid-November to March when rains are scarce.



Farmers had been worried that the hot weather would delay the start of the mid-crop season and tighten bean supply before the country’s central regions received above-average rains last week.



Farmers said they were now happy because the moisture was expected to help young pods to survive. They added that another rain was needed before the end of the month to improve the yield of cocoa trees.



“Trees will do better. Many cocoa trees had become weak due to lack of water,” said Etienne Brou, who farms near the central region of Yamoussoukro, where 18.2 millimetres (mm) of rain fell last week, 11.3 mm above the five-year average.



Similar comments were made in the central region of Bongouanou, where rainfall was above average, and in the west-central region of Daloa, where rains were below average but farmers said the moisture level was sufficient to help cocoa trees.



Farmers from the western region of Soubre and the southern region of Divo, where rains were below average, and farmers from the southern region of Agboville and the eastern region of Abengourou, where rains were above average, said growing conditions remained good with plenty of cherelles turning into small pods.



Farmers in those regions added that if rains became regular from March, the mid-crop would be as abundant as last season.



“If we have good rains from March onwards, we’ll have enough beans for the mid-crop,” said Kouassi Kouame, who farms near Soubre, where 1.2 mm of rain fell last week, 7.2 mm below the average.



The weekly average temperature across Ivory Coast last week ranged from 27.8 to 33.2 degrees Celsius.

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Ivory Coast rains revive cocoa farmers’ hopes for healthy mid-crop

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