<figure class="wp-block-image size-full is-resized"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1920" height="1080" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/108004882-1720728328098-gettyimages-2161665996-economy451659_szz6uf7k.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-511374" style="width:840px;height:auto" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/108004882-1720728328098-gettyimages-2161665996-economy451659_szz6uf7k.jpeg 1920w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/108004882-1720728328098-gettyimages-2161665996-economy451659_szz6uf7k-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/108004882-1720728328098-gettyimages-2161665996-economy451659_szz6uf7k-820x461.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/108004882-1720728328098-gettyimages-2161665996-economy451659_szz6uf7k-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/108004882-1720728328098-gettyimages-2161665996-economy451659_szz6uf7k-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/108004882-1720728328098-gettyimages-2161665996-economy451659_szz6uf7k-1536x864.jpeg 1536w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1920px) 100vw, 1920px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Photo: via CNBC</figcaption></figure>



Economic activity in the U.S. was considerably stronger than expected during the second quarter, boosted by a strong consumer, government spending and a sizeable inventory build, according to an initial estimate Thursday from the Commerce Department.



Real gross domestic product, a measure of all the goods and services produced during the April-through-June period, increased at a 2.8% annualized pace adjusted for seasonality and inflation. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for growth of 2.1% following a 1.4% rise in the first quarter.



Consumer spending helped propel the growth number higher, as did contributions from private inventory investment and nonresidential fixed investment, according to the first of three estimates the department will provide.



Personal consumption expenditures, the main proxy in the Bureau of Economic Analysis report for consumer activity, increased 2.3% for the quarter, up from the 1.5% acceleration in Q1. Both services and goods spending saw solid increases for the quarter.



Inventories also were a significant contributor, adding 0.82 percentage point to the total gain. Government spending added a tailwind as well, rising 3.9% at the federal level, including a 5.2% surge in defense outlays.



On the downside, imports, which subtract from GDP, jumped 6.9%, the biggest quarterly rise since Q1 of 2022. Exports were up just 2%.



Stock market futures drifted higher following the report while Treasury yields moved lower.



“The composition of growth was one of the better mixes that we have observed in some time,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM. The report “tends to support the idea that the American economy is in the midst of a productivity boom which over the medium term will lift living standards across the country via lower inflation, low employment and rising real wages.”



There was some good news on the inflation front: the personal consumption expenditures price index, a key measure for the Federal Reserve, increased 2.6% for the quarter, down from the 3.4% move in Q1. Excluding food and energy, core PCE prices, which the Fed focuses on even more as a longer-term inflation indicator, were up 2.9%, compared to a 3.7% increase in the prior period.



The so-called chain-weighted price index, which takes into account changes in consumer behavior, increased 2.3% for the quarter, below the 2.6% estimate.



Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen saw the GDP report as “affirming the path we’re on to steady growth and declining inflation,” in remarks she delivered Thursday morning in Rio de Janeiro.



One other key variable, final sales to private domestic purchasers, which the Fed considers a good indicator of underlying demand, accelerated at a 2.6% pace, the same as in the prior quarter.



However, the report also indicated that the personal savings rate continues to decelerate, at 3.5% for the quarter, compared with 3.8% in Q1.



There have been signs of cracks lately in the consumer picture.



A report Wednesday from the Philadelphia Federal Reserve showed credit card delinquencies at an all-time high according to data going back to 2012. Revolving debt balances also reached a new high even as banks reported tightening credit standards and declining new card originations.



However, retail sales numbers have continued to climb indicating that consumers are weathering the headwinds of high interest rates and persistent inflation.



There also is pressure in the housing market: Sales are declining while home prices continue to rise, putting stress on first-time homebuyers.



Federal Reserve officials are expected to hold interest rates steady when they meet next week, though market pricing is pointing to the first cut in four years in September. Policymakers have been circumspect about when they might start reducing rates, though recent comments indicate more of a willingness to start easing policy and most central bankers have said they see further increases as unlikely.



In other economic news Thursday, the Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims totaled 235,000 for the week ended July 20, down 10,000 from the previous week and exactly in line with the Dow Jones forecast. Continuing claims, which run a week behind, edged lower to 1.85 million.



Also, orders for durable goods — generally big-ticket items such as aircraft, appliances and computers — unexpectedly fell 6.6% in June, compared with the forecast for a 0.3% increase. However, excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.5%.

108004882-1720728328098-gettyimages-2161665996-economy451659_szz6uf7k

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<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/GettyImages-2162833993-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-510532" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/GettyImages-2162833993-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/GettyImages-2162833993-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/GettyImages-2162833993-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/GettyImages-2162833993-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/GettyImages-2162833993-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/GettyImages-2162833993-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">GRAND RAPIDS, MICHIGAN &#8211; JULY 20: Republican presidential nominee, former U.S. President Donald Trump walks offstage after speaking at a campaign rally at the Van Andel Arena on July 20, 2024 in Grand Rapids, Michigan. Trump&#8217;s campaign event is the first joint event with his recent vice presidential pick Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH) and the first campaign rally since the attempted assassination attempt his rally in Butler, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)</figcaption></figure>



Former President Donald Trump would likely take his trade war and economic decoupling policies to new levels if he were elected to a second term in the White House, experts told CNBC.



While Joe Biden also placed strategic competition with China at the forefront of his economic policy, economists and trade experts largely expect Trump would further cut and destabilize trade relations between the world’s two largest economies.



“A Trump victory is highly likely to increase trade and economic hostilities between the U.S. and China, ramping up the trade and financial decoupling between the two countries,” said Eswar Prasad, an economics professor at Cornell University.



Trump is widely expected to face incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris after Biden bowed out of the race and endorsed her. According to Prasad and other experts, Harris’ approach to China would likely be similar to that of Biden.



While Trump and Biden both took a protectionist stance, their strategies and tactics differed greatly, explained Prasad, who previously served as head of the International Monetary Fund’s China and financial studies divisions.



“Trump relied on tariffs to keep out imports from China. Biden — while keeping those tariffs in place and even increasing tariffs on certain imports — has focused more on restricting China’s access to technology transfers and computer chips,” he said.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-tariff-man"><a></a>‘Tariff man’</h2>



Trump’s biggest diversion from Biden-era trade policy would likely be tariffs levied on China.



The self-proclaimed “tariff man” set off a trade war with Beijing during his first term. He placed a series of duties on $250 billion of Chinese imports, disregarding warnings the levies would raise prices and hurt consumers. 



After defeating Trump in 2020, Biden retained his predecessor’s tariffs and even added his own, announcing stiff new duties on about $18 billion worth of Chinese imports, including electric vehicles, solar cells, lithium batteries, steel and aluminum. 



Experts told CNBC they expect Harris to largely continue Biden’s tariff policy. Trump, on the other hand, has already proposed increasing rates on Chinese imports by at least 60%. 



“I certainly don’t know if Trump is willing to pursue such extreme measures, but I do believe that he’s likely to increase tariffs to some degree during a second term,” said Stephen Weymouth, a professor of international political economy at Georgetown University.&nbsp;&nbsp;



Economist Stephen Roach said Trump raising tariffs in a second term would be the “functional equivalent of the nuclear option” in international economic conflict.&nbsp;



William Reinsch, Scholl chair in international business at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the tariffs risk another trade war that would end most goods exchange between the two countries at an “enormous economic cost.”



Even if Trump’s aim is not a full decoupling but forcing Beijing into negotiating a more favorable trade deal, Reinsch said there’s little reason to believe that would work.



The Trump administration reached a “phase one trade deal” with China in 2019, but few terms were honored and subsequent phases never materialized.



Some commentators said Trump picking JD Vance as his running mate further signals the Republican is serious about his tariff plans. The senator from Ohio has been a staunch supporter of tariffs on China, identifying the country as the biggest threat facing the U.S. 



“If I was a China policy maker, this selection would have me shaking in my boots,” said Arthur Dong, professor of strategy and economics at Georgetown.&nbsp;



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a></a>Tech war</h2>



In contrast, the Biden-Harris administration’s key policies focused on limiting China’s access to technology transfers and directing domestic subsidies to develop high-tech industries and supply chains in the U.S.



The administration dramatically expanded the list of technologies and Chinese companies subject to U.S. export controls in efforts to cut support to critical tech industries in China, such as advanced semiconductors. The Trump administration had enacted some similar controls.



The Biden administration also announced rules limiting U.S. investment in Chinese firms developing sensitive technologies, citing national security concerns.



In perhaps Biden’s biggest move, the administration signed the CHIPS and Science Act in August 2022, putting aside almost $53 billion to invest in domestic semiconductor manufacturing and research to boost U.S. competitiveness with China.



Chris Miller, author of “Chip War,” noted export controls and the CHIPS Act were passed with bipartisan support in Washington, and thus, such policies are likely to remain a priority regardless of what happens in November.&nbsp;



“I expect that the U.S. will ratchet up restrictions a notch or two regardless of who wins the election,” Miller said.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a></a>Diplomacy&nbsp;</h2>



A second term for Trump would also impact U.S. diplomacy and dialogue with Beijing beyond trade matters, said Rorry Daniels,&nbsp;managing director of the Asia Society Policy Institute.



She said channels for the two countries to discuss policy issues decreased significantly during the Trump administration, whereas the Biden administration emphasized its diplomatic engagement efforts.



The current administration has also sought greater coordination with “likeminded partners,” such as lobbying Japan and the Netherlands to cooperate on semiconductor restrictions. 



“That’s both helped minimize the blowback of his trade policy actions, while in many ways also making them more effective,” said Nick Marro, lead analyst for global trade with the Economist Intelligence Unit, adding he expects any future Democratic administration to retain this multilateral approach.&nbsp;



On the other hand, he said Trump opts for a more “go-it-alone” approach, allowing for a more rapid adoption of U.S. measures on China.



While the Biden-Harris administration’s “more measured and cautious” approach to China trade and diplomacy has done more to stabilize the relationship, Marro said he doubts Beijing is excited about either candidate.



“There’s this feeling that, regardless of&nbsp;which party&nbsp;sits in the White House,&nbsp;US-China relations will remain on a crash-course throughout the remainder of this decade.”



— CNBC’s Zenith Wong contributed to this report

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<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="2048" height="1678" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/GettyImages-2161957502-scaled.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-510111" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/GettyImages-2161957502-scaled.jpg 2048w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/GettyImages-2161957502-300x246.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/GettyImages-2161957502-820x672.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/GettyImages-2161957502-110x90.jpg 110w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/GettyImages-2161957502-768x629.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/GettyImages-2161957502-1536x1259.jpg 1536w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 2048px) 100vw, 2048px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FAYETTEVILLE, USA &#8211; JULY 18: US Vice President Kamala Harris holds a campaign event that is her seventh visit to North Carolina this year and 15th trip to the state since taking office in Fayetteville NC, United States on July 18, 2024 (Photo by Peter Zay/Anadolu via Getty Images)</figcaption></figure>



Democrats united behind Vice President Kamala Harris as the party’s front-runner for the presidential nomination Monday, and their excitement translated into a juggernaut day of fundraising for the party and for Harris’ campaign.



Late Monday night, NBC News projected that Harris had won endorsements from a majority of the Democratic party’s pledged convention delegates. The threshold is 1,976 delegates, and NBC estimates that Harris has the spoken or written backing of 1,992 delegates.



While not yet formally the party’s presumptive nominee, Harris’ position as frontrunner is rock solid, and no potential challengers have signaled they intend to vie for the nomination.



In the hours since President Joe Biden announced that he would end his teetering reelection campaign, Harris and the Democratic party have pulled in roughly $250 million in online donations and major donor commitments. 



The Democratic fundraising platform ActBlue has processed $106 million in contributions to Democratic candidates since Biden dropped out, according to an automated tracker. 



It is not clear yet how much of this money was given to House and Senate campaigns and how much went to the former Biden campaign, rebranded overnight as the Harris for President campaign.&nbsp;



In addition to the online donations, a super political action committee that supports the Biden-Harris ticket announced that over the past 24 hours, major donors have made contribution commitments totaling $150 million to the Harris election effort.&nbsp;



The pledges to Future Forward were described to NBC News as coming from donors who had been sitting on the sidelines for the past month, amid concerns about Biden as the nominee. 



The pledged donations to Future Forward are just that, however: promises. Until the PAC files mandatory federal campaign finance reports, these numbers cannot be verified.&nbsp;



The historic fundraising numbers are energizing Democrats and breathing new life into their bid to defeat former President Donald Trump and his Republican running mate, Sen. JD Vance of Ohio.



Since Sunday, more than 888,000 small-dollar donors have contributed to the Harris campaign, according to a memo late Monday.



Harris’ momentum could be the reason that West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin, who recently switched his political affiliation to Independent, dropped his suggestion that he was open to challenging Harris for the Democratic nomination.



Republicans, meanwhile, are scrambling to retool a Trump campaign that was built to defeat Biden into one capable of defeating a very different candidate.



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<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="2048" height="1332" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/CH74466FLFPLDMIKLENAOZO5UY-scaled.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-423884" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/CH74466FLFPLDMIKLENAOZO5UY-scaled.jpg 2048w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/CH74466FLFPLDMIKLENAOZO5UY-300x195.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/CH74466FLFPLDMIKLENAOZO5UY-820x533.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/CH74466FLFPLDMIKLENAOZO5UY-138x90.jpg 138w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/CH74466FLFPLDMIKLENAOZO5UY-768x500.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/CH74466FLFPLDMIKLENAOZO5UY-1536x999.jpg 1536w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 2048px) 100vw, 2048px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris speaks in Munich, Germany February 18, 2023. REUTERS/Wolfgang Rattay//File Photo</figcaption></figure>



Washington and the world are still reeling from President Joe Biden’s surprise announcement on Sunday that he is ending his teetering re-election campaign.



But Biden’s swift endorsement of Vice President Kamala Harris to replace him at the top of the Democratic ticket is energizing Democrats and breathing new life into their campaign to defeat former President Donald Trump and his running mate, Ohio Sen. JD Vance.



The “Biden for President” campaign committee has officially been renamed the Harris for President committee, maintaining the Biden team’s infrastructure, staff and — crucially — its $98 million in cash reserves.



Democrats excited about a new ticket have donated tens of millions of dollars online to the Harris for President campaign.



Now, speculation swirls about who the former California senator could choose for a potential running mate, if she becomes the party’s nominee. Several Democratic governors are early favorites, with strategists eyeing Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, Roy Cooper of North Carolina and Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear.



Republicans are meanwhile scrambling to retool a Trump campaign that was built to defeat Joe Biden into one capable of defeating a very different candidate.



Both parties want to know what happened to make it possible for a would-be assassin to shoot at Trump while he was on stage at a rally in Butler Pa. on July 13. Trump survived the attempt, but one of his supporters in the audience was killed.



This is a developing story&#8230;

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<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="2048" height="1424" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/CQH2GCFS7VKHNNUO4RF6ABAM54-scaled.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-417906" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/CQH2GCFS7VKHNNUO4RF6ABAM54-scaled.jpg 2048w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/CQH2GCFS7VKHNNUO4RF6ABAM54-300x209.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/CQH2GCFS7VKHNNUO4RF6ABAM54-820x570.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/CQH2GCFS7VKHNNUO4RF6ABAM54-129x90.jpg 129w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/CQH2GCFS7VKHNNUO4RF6ABAM54-768x534.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/CQH2GCFS7VKHNNUO4RF6ABAM54-1536x1068.jpg 1536w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 2048px) 100vw, 2048px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: U.S. President Joe Biden speaks as he attends the signing into law of the Ocean Shipping Reform Act of 2022, which will level the playing field for American exporters and importers, including farmers, and reduce costs for American consumers by lowering the cost of ocean shipping, at the White House in Washington, U.S., June 16, 2022. REUTERS/Evelyn Hockstein</figcaption></figure>



President&nbsp;Joe Biden&nbsp;on Sunday&nbsp;dropped out&nbsp;of the&nbsp;2024 presidential race&nbsp;and endorsed Vice President&nbsp;Kamala Harris&nbsp;as the Democratic Party’s nominee, bowing to weeks of growing pressure by his own party members to quit his re-election bid against former President&nbsp;Donald Trump.



“It has been the greatest honor of my life to serve as your President,” Biden wrote in a post on the social media site X.



“And while it has been my intention to seek reelection, I believe it is in the best interest of my party and the country for me to stand down and to focus solely on fulfilling my duties as President for the remainder of my term,” Biden wrote.



“I will speak to the Nation later this week in more detail about my decision,” wrote Biden, whose bombshell decision came after a sharp spike in recent days in the number of congressional Democrats publicly calling for him to step aside for another nominee.



Biden in a subsequent tweet wrote that his “very first decision as the party nominee in 2020 was to pick Kamala Harris as my Vice President.”



“And it’s been the best decision I’ve made. Today I want to offer my full support and endorsement for Kamala to be the nominee of our party this year. Democrats — it’s time to come together and beat Trump,” Biden wrote.



“Let’s do this.”



Harris in a statement said, “I am honored to have the President’s endorsement and my intention is to earn and win this nomination.”



Former President Bill Clinton and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, in a joint statement from the Democratic power couple, said, “We are honored to join the President in endorsing Vice President Harris and will do whatever we can to support her.”



Biden, who has been isolated at his Rehoboth, Delaware, beach home after being diagnosed with Covid-19, and Harris spoke on Sunday before he announced he would drop out of the election race.



NBC News reported that Biden at 1:45 p.m. ET Sunday told his senior campaign team that he had changed his mind about remaining in the contest.



On Sunday evening, on a campaign staff call, Biden campaign co-chair Jen O’Malley Dillon called for staff to rally behind their new candidate and said that their jobs would safely transfer to the Harris campaign, three sources familiar with the call told NBC News.



She also acknowledged the emotional weight of the moment: “It is ok to grieve, it is ok to be unsure but also be optimistic about our path forward.”



Trump in a phone interview with NBC News said of Biden’s decision, “He should never have been there in the first place.”



“He should have stayed in his basement,” said Trump, who was formally nominated as the Republican Party’s candidate last week, days after narrowly avoiding being killed in an assassination attempt at a Pennsylvania campaign rally on July 13.



Democratic National Committee Jamie Harrison in a statement said, “In the coming days, the Party will undertake a transparent and orderly process to move forward as a united Democratic Party with a candidate who can defeat Donald Trump in November.”



“This process will be governed by established rules and procedures of the Party. Our delegates are prepared to take seriously their responsibility in swiftly delivering a candidate to the American people,” Harrison said.



Biden’s move echoes the decision by another Democratic incumbent, President Lyndon Johnson, to drop out of the 1968 election as he faced turmoil over the Vietnam War, low approval ratings, and a surprisingly strong performance by Sen. Eugene McCarthy in the New Hampshire primary.



Biden’s campaign for weeks had insisted he would remain in the race, despite growing concern since his disastrous debate with Trump in late June that he was too old and frail to compete against the former president and serve a full second term if re-elected.



As of Sunday, nearly 40 Democratic members of Congress had urged Biden to drop out. Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia, who recently switched his political affiliation from Democrat to independent, earlier Sunday publicly said Biden should quit the race.



Rep. Nancy Pelosi, the California Democrat who previously served as speaker of the House of Representatives, in a tweet Sunday wrote, “President Joe Biden is a patriotic American who has always put our country first.”



“His legacy of vision, values and leadership make him one of the most consequential Presidents in American history,” Pelosi wrote. “With love and gratitude to President Biden for always believing in the promise of America and giving people the opportunity to reach their fulfillment. God blessed America with Joe Biden’s greatness and goodness.



Biden’s decision to drop out blows open the presidential race less than four months before Election Day.



It also poses extraordinary questions and challenges for the Democratic party, which now must scramble to assemble a new presidential ticket.



The next candidate will need to compete against the Republican ticket of Trump and Sen. JD Vance, win over donors, delegates and other allies who were loyal to the incumbent — all while convincing voters of their own worthiness for the nation’s highest office.



Biden’s campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment.



Biden started to hemorrhage support from his own party and allies after his June 27 debate against Trump.



While he is only three years older than Trump, Biden looked and sounded significantly worse on the debate stage. He displayed a stiff posture and sometimes vacant-looking gaze, and he frequently gave answers that were raspy, unclear and ineffective.



In both substance and appearance, Biden contrasted sharply with Trump, who looked and sounded the same as he has in recent years.



The debate instantly set off a crisis among Democrats. Even before it ended, party operatives were raising doubts about whether Biden could effectively campaign against Trump.



High-profile Democratic donors and backers openly urged Biden to drop out, with some vowing to&nbsp;withhold campaign contributions&nbsp;in the meantime.



Biden and his aides spent weeks trying to stanch the bleeding.



In his first post-debate interview, Biden said he was convinced that he is the best person to take on Trump, adding that he could only be persuaded to step down “if the Lord Almighty comes out and tells me that.”



But as his resolute posture failed to quell the&nbsp;unrest in his party, Biden suggested he could be moved to withdraw in other ways.



In a BET interview that aired Wednesday during the Republican National Convention, Biden said he might reconsider his decision to stay in the race “if I had some&nbsp;medical condition that emerged.”



On the same day that interview was set for broadcast, Biden&nbsp;tested positive for Covid. He canceled a scheduled appearance in Las Vegas and returned his beach house in Delaware.



Biden is already the oldest person ever to serve in the White House.



He would have been 86 at the end of a second term. He had&nbsp;weathered questions&nbsp;about his physical and mental fitness even during his 2020 run.



Those concerns grew in the 2024 cycle, but they were aggressively batted down by Biden’s campaign and White House aides, and the president’s relative lack of press conferences and interviews may have shielded scrutiny about his acuity.

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<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/106463174-1585290052493gettyimages-871925648.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-508834" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/106463174-1585290052493gettyimages-871925648.jpeg 1600w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/106463174-1585290052493gettyimages-871925648-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/106463174-1585290052493gettyimages-871925648-820x461.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/106463174-1585290052493gettyimages-871925648-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/106463174-1585290052493gettyimages-871925648-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/106463174-1585290052493gettyimages-871925648-1536x864.jpeg 1536w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Chinese President Xi Jinping and former U.S. President Donald Trump in Beijing, China, in 2017. Artyom Ivanov | TASS | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



BEIJING — If Donald Trump wins the U.S. presidential election, his plans for 60% tariffs on Chinese goods could be a “major downside growth risk” to China, according to Goldman Sachs.



Chances of Trump becoming the next president ticked higher after he survived an assassination attempt on Saturday and selected former critic JD Vance as his running mate two days later.



“Right now exports are a major bright spot in the Chinese economy, and I think the policymakers might want to be prepared,” Hui Shan, chief China economist at Goldman Sachs told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Tuesday.



“We are seeing tariff narratives, not only in the U.S., but across other major trading partners of China’s,” she said. “So this is not going to be a sustainable driver of growth for China.”&nbsp;



The U.S. is China’s largest trading partner on a single-country basis, while the European Union has fallen behind Southeast Asia as China’s largest regional trading partner. Trump had raised duties on Chinese goods when president in 2018 and has threatened to increase them to 60% if reelected this fall.\



The contribution of goods exports to real GDP growth in China for the second quarter of this year was the highest since the first quarter of 2022, when Covid restrictions limited domestic economic activity, according to Citi.



Meanwhile,&nbsp;Beijing’s push to develop high-end manufacturing has not yet been able to fully offset a real estate slump and lackluster consumption.



U.S. officials such as Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen have said that China’s policies to boost its industrial capability and technological self-reliance have led to U.S. job losses.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-china-the-biggest-threat"><a></a>China the ‘biggest threat’?</h2>



In his first interview since he was selected as Trump’s running mate, Vance told Fox News that instead of the war in Ukraine, China was the “real issue” for the U.S. and posed the “biggest threat.”



The Biden campaign has criticized Trump’s pick, saying the choice was deliberately made “because Vance will do what Mike Pence wouldn’t on January 6: bend over backwards to enable Trump and his extreme MAGA agenda, even if it means breaking the law and no matter the harm to the American people.”



Supporters of Trump, who was president at that time, had stormed the U.S. Capitol in an attempt to overturn the 2020 presidential election results on January 6, 2021.



Asked about Vance’s comment, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Lin Jian said Tuesday at a daily press briefing, “We are always opposed to making China an issue in U.S. elections.”



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-calls-for-stimulus"><a></a>Calls for stimulus</h2>



China’s economy grew by 4.7% in the second quarter compared to a year ago, missing economists’ expectations and bringing growth for the first half of the year to 5%. It prompted some calls for more stimulus if the world’s second-largest economy is to reach 5% growth for the full year.



The downside risk from potentially higher U.S. tariffs under Trump would primarily come from the greater uncertainty and tighter financial conditions, as well as pressure on the Chinese yuan, Goldman’s Shan said. She pointed out that tariffs in 2018 did not significantly dent China’s exports to the U.S.



More recent data, however, showed a slowdown in that trade. China’s exports to the U.S. rose by a modest 1.5% in the first half of the year.



“Policymakers need to think about domestic demand and focusing on something that is more persistent and sustainable for the growth outlook,” Shan told CNBC on Tuesday.



If 60% tariffs are imposed, “that’s pretty high and we think the implication for the macro economy is pretty significant,” she added.



So far, China has held back on stimulus measures. The country’s top leaders are meeting in Beijing this week for a highly anticipated Third Plenum, which is expected to determine long-term economic policy goals.



Citi analysts said Monday that weak retail sales and disappointing second-quarter growth won’t be enough to convince Beijing to increase support for the economy.



“Policymakers may tolerate short-term weakness amid the structural shift of the property sector,” the analysts said. “More concerns on trade and external relationships could also lead China to save the policy space for future.”



Citi forecasts 5.0% growth in real GDP growth for China this year.



China’s U.S. dollar-denominated exports grew by 3.6% in the first six months of the year after better-than-expected global demand for Chinese goods in recent months.



“Manufacturing and infrastructure investment may stay robust and exports should stay in decent [year-on-year] growth in [the third quarter], with possible front-loading of shipment orders in [the second half of the year] due to fears of higher tariffs,” Tao Wang, head of Asia economics and chief China economist at UBS Investment Bank said in a note Tuesday.



She said Chinese authorities would likely be reluctant to roll out major stimulus in the next few months in order to save resources in the case of greater economic weakness and increased tariffs.



UBS forecasts 4.9% growth for China’s economy this year.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a></a>Trump the dealmaker</h2>



Not all analysts believe a possible Trump presidency will prove detrimental to China, though.



Ben Harburg of Corevalues Alpha told CNBC on July 4 that he believes China is more likely to have “positive” trade outcomes under a Trump presidency, given the ex-president’s “transactional nature.” “He’s a dealmaker, and like any negotiator, he likes to kind of set the bar low, and kind of set his price low, and then work up from there,” the portfolio manager said on “Street Signs Asia.”



Speaking on foreign policy, Harburg pointed out that another Biden term would also mean continued tariffs, as well as “encroachment on Chinese domestic issues” — which would not significantly improve China’s economy, nor U.S.-China relations.



He said a Trump-China partnership would signify “a more binary potential for a positive outcome for China.”



CNBC’s Sonia Heng contributed reporting from Singapore.

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What would a second Trump presidency mean for China? Goldman Sachs weighs in

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Turkey came out miles ahead of the rest of the world in an annual global wealth ranking — in a result that may come as surprising, given the country’s high levels of inflation.



“Türkiye stands out with a staggering growth of over 157% in wealth per adult between 2022 and 2023, leaving all other nations far behind,” Swiss bank UBS wrote in its Global Wealth Report 2024, using the local spelling for the country’s name.



The next-highest countries in terms of average wealth growth per adult were Russia and Qatar with nearly 20% and South Africa with just over 16%. In the U.S., average wealth per adult grew by nearly 2.5%.



Inflation in Turkey sits at nearly 72%, an eye-watering figure for the country’s 85 million people, many of whom have seen a dramatic drop in their purchasing power over the last several years. In the last five years, the Turkish lira has lost nearly 83% of its value against the dollar, and the currency trades at 33 lira to the greenback as of 09:07 a.m. London time on Wednesday.



But for Turks who own assets like homes, wealth has grown, as inflation pushes up the costs of those holdings.



The UBS report defines net worth or “wealth” as “the value of financial assets plus real assets (principally housing) owned by households, minus their debts.” In a call with journalists, some of the report’s authors broke down the relationship between inflation and wealth rises in Turkey.



“In certain ways, the high pace of inflation also helps explain why wealth has risen much much more in local currency terms, at least [more] than in other countries because it’s worth keeping in mind that wealth is measured in nominal terms,” Samuel Adams economist at UBS Global Wealth Management, told CNBC.



“If inflation is very high, what tends to happen is that if you have a real asset like housing, the house prices tend to rise in line with inflation, if not even faster,” he said. “So those people with have homeownership, or who have equities, which also tend to perform fairly well in those environments, they tend to see their wealth accumulate a bit faster.



“Of course, it doesn’t mean that everybody benefits to the same extent,” Adams added. “If you’re not in those assets, if your wage rises don’t keep pace with inflation, then, of course, it will be fairly negatively affected.”



The report also noted the “currency effect”, which is what changes wealth growth the most — local currency growth figures for wealth are often significantly different from those in dollar terms.



“Türkiye’s already exceptional growth of over 63% in USD &#8230; more than doubles to nearly 158% in Turkish lira,” it said. Other examples in the report included Japan, which in dollar terms has seen less than 2% average growth in wealth per adult in U.S. dollar terms between 2022-23, but in local currency that growth was 9%.



Evaluating countries’ average wealth growth between the years of 2008 and 2023, “the most dramatic evolution has taken place in Türkiye,” UBS wrote, “where average wealth per adult in this period has shot up by 1708% in local currency.”



UBS Global Wealth Management’s Chief Economist Paul Donovan pointed out that being asset-rich does not necessarily mean being cash-rich — in Turkey, this could actually be the opposite.



“In terms of living standards rather than wealth, it’s also important to remember that if you own a house, the value of your house has gone up, but your real wage may be negative at the same time. So you can be &#8230; asset rich and cash poor,” Donovan said last week.



“That’s certainly a possibility, where a lot of the stresses that have arisen in the Turkish economy over the last few years have come about because of negative real income,” he added, “not necessarily what’s happening on the asset side.”

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