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<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="461" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/107077973-1655689250819-gettyimages-1402870855-vcg111387492036-1-820x461.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-544690" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/107077973-1655689250819-gettyimages-1402870855-vcg111387492036-1-820x461.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/107077973-1655689250819-gettyimages-1402870855-vcg111387492036-1-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/107077973-1655689250819-gettyimages-1402870855-vcg111387492036-1-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/107077973-1655689250819-gettyimages-1402870855-vcg111387492036-1-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/107077973-1655689250819-gettyimages-1402870855-vcg111387492036-1-1536x864.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/107077973-1655689250819-gettyimages-1402870855-vcg111387492036-1.jpeg 1920w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">China’s central bank supplied 14-day cash to its banking system for the first time in months on Monday and at a lower interest rate, signaling its intent to further ease monetary conditions.
Jiang Qiming | China News Service | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



China kept its key lending rates unchanged on Thursday, as Beijing juggles propping up growth and stabilizing its currency amid mounting trade frictions.



The People’s Bank of China held the 1-year loan prime rate at 3.1% and the 5-year LPR at 3.6%, where they have been since a quarter-percentage-point cut in October.



The rate decision follows the U.S. Federal Reserve’s move to hold benchmark interest rates. Fed officials, however, indicated likely half a percentage point of rate cuts through 2025.



China’s LPRs — normally charged to banks’ best clients — are calculated monthly based on designated commercial lenders’ proposed rates submitted to the PBOC. The 1-year LPR influences corporate and most household loans in China, while the 5-year LPR serves as a benchmark for mortgage rates.



The PBOC has kept its 7-day rate, the country’s main policy rate, steady at 1.5% since a cut in October, as the central bank defends the yuan that faces downward pressure amid threats of higher tariffs.



“Policymakers recognize the country’s robust growth momentum while remaining cautious due to persistent pressures ahead,” said Bruce Pang, adjunct associate professor at Chinese University of Hong Kong, citing risks from trade tensions, Fed’s steady policy stance, and Chinese banks’ already-thin net interest margins.



China’s economy showed a modest pick up in the first two months of the year, with retail sales growing 4.0% from a year earlier, faster than the 3.7% rise in December. Industrial output also came in higher than expectations, expanding 5.9% on year.



Inflation data, however, underscored the need for more policy support for a sustainable economic recovery. Consumer price inflation in February fell into negative territory for the first time in over a year while producer price deflation persisted.



Beijing has made boosting domestic consumption a top policy priority this year to cushion the impact from an escalating trade war overseas.



“With the stronger call to support consumption, there is a growing chance that China will cut rates in the next meeting or so,” said Gary Ng, senior economist at Natixis. “If retail and home sales do not improve, especially if inflation stays weak, we may see a rate cut as early as April,” he added.



Following the rate announcement, the yuan was little changed, trading at 7.2280 against the greenback while yield on the 10-year government bonds fell more than 2 basis points to 1.932%.



Chinese offshore yuan has regained some ground in recent weeks after hitting a 16-month low in January. It has weakened nearly 1.8% since U.S. President Donald Trump’s election win in November.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-easing-ahead"><a></a>Easing ahead</h2>



China’s top officials have pledged to ramp up monetary easing measures this year, including interest rate cuts “at appropriate time,” as Beijing has set an ambitious growth target of “around 5%.”



Goldman Sachs economists in a note earlier this month maintained their forecast for two 20-basis-point cuts in the second and fourth quarter this year. The investment bank also expects two 50-basis-point cuts in the reserve requirement ratio, or RRR, which determines the amount of cash that banks must hold as reserves, in the first and third quarter.



Earlier this month, PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng reiterated that the bank wanted to maintain currency stability at “a reasonable and balanced level.” Preventing the yuan from weakening too quickly could be seen as a sign of goodwill in the lead up to any negotiation with Trump on a trade deal to put a ceiling on tariffs.



While the cuts are yet to materialize, analysts anticipate any policy measures by the PBOC are likely to hinge on Trump’s trade policy moves.



Trump has slapped new tariffs of 20% on Chinese imports and threatened more as early April. The fresh tariffs are seen straining China’s exports, a lone bright spot in the faltering economy.



Exports growth in the world’s second-largest economy slowed more than expected in January and February, while imports during the two months clocked their sharpest fall since July 2023.

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<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="410" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/108099964-1739192857747-gettyimages-1499178181-vcg111441609233-820x410.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-599301" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/108099964-1739192857747-gettyimages-1499178181-vcg111441609233-820x410.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/108099964-1739192857747-gettyimages-1499178181-vcg111441609233-300x150.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/108099964-1739192857747-gettyimages-1499178181-vcg111441609233-160x80.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/108099964-1739192857747-gettyimages-1499178181-vcg111441609233-768x384.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/108099964-1739192857747-gettyimages-1499178181-vcg111441609233.jpeg 884w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">The Chinese national flag fluttering with the Lujiazui Financial District in the background. Vcg | Visual China Group | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



A rally in Chinese stocks since the start of the year is prompting investors to predict that mainland shares will outperform their American peers in a sign that attractive valuations are trumping the idea of American exceptionalism.



Last week, the S&amp;P 500 slipped into correction territory for the first time since 2023. In contrast, the MSCI China index has gained 19% since the start of the year, to Mar. 9, according to Goldman Sachs, marking its best start to a year in history.



The contrasting fortunes mark a swift turnaround from just a few months ago when many investors believed the U.S. was uniquely positioned to weather economic and political storms buffeting other countries. Chinese stocks were also languishing due to regulatory worries and concerns over the health of the Chinese economy.



A lot has changed since.



U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs policy has fanned speculation of an economic slowdown in the world’s largest economy.



Meanwhile, in China, optimism around the country’s artificial intelligence capabilities has intensified since the introduction of DeepSeek’s R1 model earlier this year.



“The U.S. has had a good period, and that’s coming to an end because Trump’s policies are very anti-economy. China has had a very bad period, but it looks as if it’s starting to recover,” Richard Harris, CEO of Port Shelter Investment Management, told CNBC.



“I call it the great pivot. Obviously, over the last 5 to 7 years, U.S. markets have been dominant. The Magnificent Seven have gone to the moon … [But] it seems difficult to see that there’s much more to go,” Harris said.



The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite is also in correction territory, dragged by a selloff in Magnificent Seven shares, driven by recession concerns and trade war fears. The Magnificent Seven comprises Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla.



“The U.S. stock market capitalization, relative to world stock market capitalization, made an all-time peak at the end of last year amidst the then prevailing talk of ‘American exceptionalism,’” said Chris Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies Hong Kong Global.



In the same vein, Eastspring Investments’ Asia equity portfolio specialist Ken Wong believes that the American exceptionalism trade ended earlier this year. Expected fiscal tightening and Trump’s tariff war are expected to slow U.S. economic growth to below 2% this year, Wong said, compared to consensus estimates of 2.2%.



The U.S. saw real GDP growth of 2.8% in 2024 compared to 2023. The U.S. debt and deficit situation became more severe during President Donald Trump’s first month in office, and since then, he has prioritized addressing the government’s fiscal issues.



Stagflation is a key risk in the U.S. as the tariff war could depress economic activity to the point of recession while simultaneously increasing inflation, Wong added.



That could mean the slump in U.S. equities may not be done.



“We see the selloff in U.S. equities as having further to go,” Deutsche Bank wrote in a note published over the weekend. “With trade policy uncertainty likely to continue to weigh, at least until April 2, we expect positioning to continue to unwind.”



“A move to the bottom of the positioning band which is where it went to in the last trade war, would take the S&amp;P 500 down to 5,250,” said the bank’s chief strategist Binky Chadha. That will mark a more than 7% slide from Monday’s close of 5,675.12.



On the other hand, China tech shares have been on a tear since DeepSeek’s breakthrough. The Chinese government has also actively signaled its support for its technology sector, with plans to increase funding in the cards. 



The Hang Seng Tech Index, which tracks some of the largest Chinese technology companies listed in Hong Kong, has risen over 30% since the start of the year, according to data from LSEG.



“Investors should be looking to sell rallies in the U.S. and buy corrections in Europe and China where there is the most evidence of improving fundamentals,” Wood told CNBC.



To be sure, the sheer pace of China’s rally could portend a correction soon, according to analysts at Bank of America.



“Performance of&nbsp;the&nbsp;HSCEI/MSCI China in the past 17mths trended closely to the trajectory a decade ago, making us worry that we might be approaching some correction&nbsp;soon,” analysts at the Bank of America wrote in a report published on Monday.



The bank’s analysts believe that there are “fundamental similarities” between the current cycle and 10 years ago in terms of the country’s policy stimulus and reforms, economic re-balancing and technological breakthrough.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-attractive-valuations"><a></a>Attractive valuations?</h2>



JPMorgan’s head of Asia Pacific equity research, James Sullivan,&nbsp;said valuations are extremely attractive relative to global counterparts in markets such as China, where investor positioning continues to be extremely low.&nbsp;



The MSCI China Index is currently trading at 13.38 times its projected one-year earnings, according to FactSet. This compares to the S&amp;P 500, which is trading at 20.72 times projected one-year earnings.



“I think China’s market is going to outperform the U.S. markets for the next four years, and I don’t think it has anything to do with Trump. I think it has everything to do with starting valuation,” said&nbsp;Michael Gayed, publisher of The Lead-Lag Report, attributing his bullish stance largely to a “tremendous underinvestment” in China.



“China has been not only from an investment standpoint, dead money, for a very long time, but it’s also become a source of anxiety and risk for financial advisors to even consider taking a contrarian bet for their own clients investing in China funds.”



Aside from cheaper valuations, other factors are also fueling the bullish momentum in Chinese markets. China’s A shares have been quite depressed for some time, while the U.S. has been on a tear for the last six years or so, Harris said.



“Of course, average valuations are going to show a difference like that,” he said.



“I’m not worried so much about valuation. It’s important, but it’s not the 100% factor. What is more important at the moment, is that there’s much more momentum in the Chinese market,” Harris said, adding that China’s government stimulus has trickled into the economy and markets.



In a report released last week, Citi Research upgraded China to overweight, while downgrading U.S. equities to neutral after being overweight since October 2023, expecting more negative data prints from the country’s economy.



However, Citi maintained that its neutral outlook is a three—to six-month view, emphasizing that the U.S. will remain one of the leaders of AI, even if jointly with China.



“In the bigger picture, we doubt that the AI bubble is already fully played out,” the investment bank’s strategists led by Dirk Willer wrote.

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<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="461" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/108117314-1742278295482-gettyimages-2198772571-_dsc2763-820x461.png" alt="" class="wp-image-598814" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/108117314-1742278295482-gettyimages-2198772571-_dsc2763-820x461.png 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/108117314-1742278295482-gettyimages-2198772571-_dsc2763-300x169.png 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/108117314-1742278295482-gettyimages-2198772571-_dsc2763-160x90.png 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/108117314-1742278295482-gettyimages-2198772571-_dsc2763-768x432.png 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/108117314-1742278295482-gettyimages-2198772571-_dsc2763.png 1200w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Photo: via CNBC</figcaption></figure>



The Wall Street adage to never bet against the U.S. consumer still holds true — to some degree. February’s retail sales, while lower than expected, still registered an increase. For the skeptics, that is like desperately squinting for a silver lining. It might very well be. But the dark clouds, in the form of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs, are more ominous than usual.



Tariffs, after all, are a tax on imported goods that will likely be passed on to the consumer. That has weighed on consumer sentiment, as measured by surveys like those from the University of Michigan. Even U.S. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett acknowledged that Trump’s tariffs will cause some uncertainty.



The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development has already lowered its growth outlook for the U.S. because of that. While the Trump administration is confident that stocks will recover their footing, strategists may also start revising downward their market forecast if the outlook does not clear up.

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