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Yacht-racing competition SailGP has two podiums — one for sport and one for the planet

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="648" height="338" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/108087533-1737021407372-gettyimages-2192558603-cfoto-shanghai250110_npafS.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-575896" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/108087533-1737021407372-gettyimages-2192558603-cfoto-shanghai250110_npafS.jpeg 648w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/108087533-1737021407372-gettyimages-2192558603-cfoto-shanghai250110_npafS-300x156.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/108087533-1737021407372-gettyimages-2192558603-cfoto-shanghai250110_npafS-160x83.jpeg 160w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 648px) 100vw, 648px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Railway builders erect a box girder at the site of the standard project in front of the Huning section of the Shanghai-Nanjing-Hefei high-speed railway in Suzhou, Jiangsu province, China, on January 10, 2025.  Costfoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



China’s economic activity accelerated more than expected in the final three months of 2024 as stimulus measures kicked in, allowing Beijing to meet its annual growth target.



China’s gross domestic product expanded by 5.4% in the fourth quarter, beating Reuters-polled economists’ estimates of a 5.0% growth, and outpacing the 4.6% in the third quarter, 4.7% in the second quarter, 5.3% in the first quarter.



That last-quarter sprint helped lift China’s full-year GDP growth to 5.0% in 2024, according to China’s National Bureau of Statistics on Friday, in line with the official target of “around 5%.”



“The shift of policy stance in September last year helped the economy to stabilize in Q4, but it requires large and persistent policy stimulus to boost economic momentum and sustain the recovery,” Zhiwei Zhang, president and chief economist, Pinpoint Asset Management, said in a note.



Last year’s growth was slower compared with the 5.4% rise in 2023, post-pandemic. As part of an annual revision to preliminary figures, the statistics bureau in late December revised the 2023 GDP growth to 7.4%, according to a CNBC calculation of the official data.



In December, retail sales jumped 3.7% from a year earlier, exceeding Reuters’ forecast of 3.5%. Industrial output expanded 6.2% from a year earlier, versus expectations of 5.4%, underscoring China’s imbalance between domestic production and weak demand.



The full-year fixed asset investment rose 3.2% in 2024, shy of the projected 3.3% increase in a Reuters poll, as real estate investment drag steepened to a 10.6% drop, compared with the January to November period.



Kang Yi, head of the statistics bureau, said real estate was recovering. The sector’s drag on economic growth had narrowed, he said, while the role of new growth drivers, such as in digital tech, was expanding.&nbsp;



The urban unemployment rate ticked higher to 5.1% in December from 5.0% in the prior month.



Disposable income for urban residents grew by 4.4%, slower than the overall economic growth, while that of rural residents increased by 6.3% in 2024.



Mainland China’s blue-chip CSI 300 index reversed course to edge up 0.31%, following the upbeat data. Chinese offshore yuan strengthened slightly to 7.3398 per U.S. dollar, while the benchmark 10-year government bond yield dropped 2 basis points to 1.638, according to the LSEG data.



“The stock market’s moderate response to today’s data release reflects investor caution as they await further policy clarity after the Chinese New Year,” said Chaoping Zhu, Shanghai-based global market strategist at J.P. Morgan asset management.



“There is room for domestic consumers and business confidence to rebound with the right policies in place,” Zhu added, stressing that “policy consistency and coordination will be crucial.”



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-growth-demographic-concerns"><a></a>Growth, demographic concerns</h2>



However, some economists made the case that China’s economic recovery may not be as rosy as the headline figures suggest.&nbsp;



Despite the accelerated growth in real GDP figures, China’s economy saw deflation persisting for the seventh straight quarter, Larry Hu, chief China economist at Macquarie said in a note.



Hu remained skeptical of China’s ability to achieve higher inflation. “We don’t bet against policymakers’ will and ability to deliver 5% real GDP growth in 2025, but can they achieve higher inflation? It will largely depend on the fiscal and housing stimulus, which is key to boosting domestic demand.”



China’s consumer inflation has remained barely above zero, while wholesale prices fell for a 27th consecutive month in December, official data showed last week.



Statistics bureau head Kang reiterated Friday Beijing’s priority this year was to boost consumption, while acknowledging that consumers’ ability to spend was still weak.



This year,&nbsp;the “unfavorable impact of external factors may deepen,” he flagged.



Friday’s data comes just days before Donald Trump is set to be inaugurated as the next U.S. president on Jan. 20. Trump has said that soon after taking office, he plans to impose additional tariffs of at least 10% on Chinese goods. He has also appointed some China hawks to key cabinet posts.



The growth momentum, buoyed by a surge in exports, may be sustained into the first quarter this year, said Erica Tay, director of macro research at Maybank. But it is likely to weigh on GDP growth in the second half-year, “regardless of Trump’s tariffs,” given that foreign importers have amassed ample stockpiles, she added.



The data released Friday indicated that “domestic growth engines remain soft as retail sales growth responded marginally to trade-in subsidies,” Tay said, pointing to sluggish consumer spending.



The national population&nbsp;declined to 1.408 billion in 2024, dropping by 1.39 million from 2023, according to the statistics bureau. It had declined by 2.08 million people in 2023 from the prior year.



The fall in population, despite a rebound in birth rates, reflects a deepening demographic crisis, said Tianchen Xu, senior economist at Economic Intelligence Unit, stressing that the death rate in China had ticked up to 7.76% last year from 7.1% before the pandemic.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a></a>Stimulus boost</h2>



China has been striving to boost economic growth and has taken several measures towards this end, as a real estate slump and uncertainty about future income has continued to weigh down consumer spending and business confidence, adding to deflation concerns.



Since late September, Chinese authorities have called for halting the real estate decline, cut interest rates and announced a five-year fiscal package worth 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) to ease local governments’ financing crisis. Beijing has also expanded a program for consumers to trade-in used cars and home appliances, and buy new ones at a discount.



“They are betting on a substantial infusion of policy stimulus and reforms to turbo boost the country’s economy in 2025, invigorating domestic demand and warding off disinflationary loom,” said Bruce Pang, distinguished senior research fellow at the National Institution for Finance and Development.



Top leaders have pledged “proactive” fiscal measures and a “moderately loose” monetary policy stance for the current year. Some analysts expect stimulus might start to take effect this year, but it will take longer to see a significant impact.



The government is expected to reveal the official growth targets for 2025 and additional stimulus measures at the annual parliamentary meetings in March. Economists expect Beijing to keep its GDP growth target for 2025 at around 5%, if not slightly lower.

108087533-1737021407372-gettyimages-2192558603-cfoto-shanghai250110_npafS

China’s fourth-quarter GDP grows at 5.4%, beating market expectations as stimulus measures kick in

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/108087644-1737033990337-gettyimages-2179804474-AA_24102024_1913709-820x547.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-575868" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/108087644-1737033990337-gettyimages-2179804474-AA_24102024_1913709-820x547.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/108087644-1737033990337-gettyimages-2179804474-AA_24102024_1913709-300x200.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/108087644-1737033990337-gettyimages-2179804474-AA_24102024_1913709-135x90.jpeg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/108087644-1737033990337-gettyimages-2179804474-AA_24102024_1913709-768x512.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/108087644-1737033990337-gettyimages-2179804474-AA_24102024_1913709-1536x1024.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/108087644-1737033990337-gettyimages-2179804474-AA_24102024_1913709-scaled.jpeg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Family photo of leaders taken at the 16th BRICS Summit in Kazan, Russia on Oct. 24, 2024.  Anadolu | Anadolu | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



President-elect Donald Trump has pledged a 100% tariff against BRICS nations if they continue to undermine the U.S. dollar — but the threat won’t rein in the group’s expansion, analysts tell CNBC.



Most recently, Brazil announced Indonesia’s admittance into the bloc as a member last Monday.



Under outgoing President Joe Biden’s administration, Washington has been relatively dismissive of the 10-member coalition, with White House National Security Communications Advisor John Kirby saying during a press briefing last October that the U.S. does not view BRICS — an economic coalition of emerging markets — as a “threat.” Sentiment could change once Trump enters the White House later this month, following early indications that he may impose tariffs on alliance members if they subvert the U.S. dollar.



“A key policy shift with the incoming Trump administration is its explicit treatment of BRICS as an entity,” Mihaela Papas, director of research at the MIT Center for International Studies, told CNBC by email.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-china-will-ease-the-tariff-pain-nbsp"><a></a>China will ease the tariff pain&nbsp;</h2>



Originally established by Brazil, Russia, India, and China in 2009, then joined by South Africa in 2010, the Beijing-led BRICS was set up as a force to rival Western dominance on the international stage.&nbsp;



The alliance’s 16th annual summit in Kazan saw Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates officially admitted into the group. According to Russian officials and official paper of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee, more than 30 countries have expressed interest in joining the coalition in 2024. CNBC could not independently verify this estimate.



The size of the bloc makes it increasingly unlikely that the U.S. will apply punitive 100% tariffs on BRICS countries, according to Duncan Wrigley, chief China+ economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. Doing so would risk steering nations neutral in the U.S.-China rivalry toward Beijing and interfere with U.S. interests, Wrigley told CNBC by email.



The world’s second-largest economy could even step in to ease the pain of any potential U.S. trade measures against BRICS members, according to David Lubin, senior research fellow at Chatham House.



“From Beijing’s point of view, establishing China as an alternative pillar of global order is a critically important objective and it can’t be met without the support of the developing world,” Lubin said in emailed comments. “And since some 120 countries count China as their main trading partner, this shouldn’t be too difficult.”



China is already starting to do this, putting forward a zero-tariff policy for least developed countries with diplomatic ties with Beijing, which came into effect from December last year and builds on similar measures extended to the least developed African countries.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-dollar-is-king-nbsp"><a></a>Dollar is king&nbsp;</h2>



Trump’s tariff threat is conditional on BRICS dethroning the U.S. dollar as the world’s most widely used trade currency — which could prove to be a tall order for the alliance.



Russia has been pushing for de-dollarization in a bid to sidestep the SWIFT network, a globally recognized standard for bank transactions, and to curtail the impact of U.S sanctions against Moscow. In the Kazan talks, Vladimir Putin reiterated the use of the dollar as a “weapon” and a “big mistake,” The Guardian reports. 



One of the group’s options to topple the dollar was to create a unified BRICS currency — a proposal spearheaded by Brazil, which has yet to gain traction.



Another possibility was setting up multi-currency trade, which is already taking place among several members: some Chinese and Russian trade is being done through the yuan and ruble. Nations have also agreed to continue to strengthen trading through local currencies and expressed support for the idea of an independent cross-border settlement infrastructure for payments.



Chatham House’s Lubin notes that the Chinese currency is “much less useable internationally than dollars,” given that financial markets are largely denominated in the greenback.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-just-a-talking-shop"><a></a>Just a ‘talking shop’</h2>



The lack of a concrete allied strategy and action from BRICS members raises doubts over whether it will be considered a threat to the U.S., with Pantheon Macroeconomics’ Wrigley saying the emerging markets alliance is currently not much more than a “talking shop.”



The bloc is still too loose and unorganized to create any substantive change, with the 2024 Kazan summit resulting in “nothing really concrete”, according to Cecilia Malmström, nonresident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.



This might just insulate BRICS members and partner countries from a trade war with the U.S. — which has China as one of its main targets.



While Beijing holds a significant position in the group, there is still much internal caution amongst other member nations over Beijing’s dominance and potential trade imbalances, according to MIT’s Papas.&nbsp;



“Even if China seeks to leverage its position, internal caution among members is likely to remain a limiting factor,” she adds.



Many BRICS members also still maintain their friendly relations with the U.S. as a “crucial trade partner,” Gustavo Medeiros, head of research at Ashmore Group told CNBC by email.&nbsp;



“There is no reason to believe members of the bloc would be automatically at economic or geopolitical risk in the case of a trade war between the U.S. and China,” Medeiros says.

108087644-1737033990337-gettyimages-2179804474-AA_24102024_1913709

The BRICS bloc is growing — and Trump’s tariff threat isn’t expected to put off aspiring members

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<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="461" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/108042998-1727981319037-gettyimages-2176462447-img_2907_uiod5ijt-820x461.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-575613" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/108042998-1727981319037-gettyimages-2176462447-img_2907_uiod5ijt-820x461.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/108042998-1727981319037-gettyimages-2176462447-img_2907_uiod5ijt-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/108042998-1727981319037-gettyimages-2176462447-img_2907_uiod5ijt-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/108042998-1727981319037-gettyimages-2176462447-img_2907_uiod5ijt-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/108042998-1727981319037-gettyimages-2176462447-img_2907_uiod5ijt-1536x864.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/108042998-1727981319037-gettyimages-2176462447-img_2907_uiod5ijt.jpeg 1920w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Two women sit on the sidewalk of Qiansimen Jialing River Bridge, decorated with Chinese national flags, on October 3, 2024 in Chongqing, China. National Day Golden Week is a holiday in China commemorates the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949.  Cheng Xin | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



BEIJING — As promised government support is still to meaningfully kick in, China’s economy hasn’t yet seen the turnaround investors have been waiting for.



While policymakers have, since late September, cut interest rates and announced broad stimulus plans, details on highly anticipated fiscal support won’t likely come until an annual parliamentary meeting in March. Official GDP figures for 2024 are due Friday.



“China’s fiscal stimulus is not yet enough to address the drags on economic growth &#8230; We are cautious long term given China’s structural challenges,” BlackRock Investment Institute said in a weekly report Tuesday. The firm, which is modestly overweight Chinese stocks, indicated it was ready to buy more if the circumstances changed.



Of growing urgency in the meantime is the drop in domestic demand, and worries about deflation. Consumer prices barely rose in 2024, up by just 0.5% after excluding volatile food and energy prices. That’s the slowest rise in at least 10 years, according to records available on the Wind Information database.



“Consumer spending remains weak, foreign investment is declining, and some industries face growth pressure,” Yin Yong, Beijing city mayor, said Tuesday in an official annual report.



The capital city targets 2% consumer price inflation for 2025, and aims to bolster tech development. While nationwide economic goals won’t come out until March, senior economic and finance officials have told reporters in the last two weeks that fiscal support is in the works, and issuance of ultra-long bonds to spur consumption would exceed last year’s.



China’s announced stimulus will begin to take effect this year, but it will likely take time to see a significant impact, Mi Yang, head of research for north China at property consultancy JLL, told reporters in Beijing last week.



Pressure on the commercial property market will continue this year, and prices may accelerate their drop before recovering, he said.



Rents in Beijing for high-end offices, called Grade A, fell 16% in 2024 and are expected to drop by nearly 15% this year, with some rentals even nearing 2008 or 2009 levels, according to JLL.



New shopping centers in Beijing opened in 2024 with average occupancy rates of 72% — previously such malls would not be opened if the rate was below 75% or much closer to 100%, JLL said. Within a year, however, the new malls have seen occupancy rates reach 90%, the consultancy said.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-home-appliances"><a></a>Home appliances</h2>



Unlike the U.S. during the Covid-19 pandemic, China has not handed out cash to consumers. Instead, Chinese authorities in late July announced 150 billion yuan ($20.46 billion) in ultra-long bonds for trade-in subsidies and another 150 billion yuan for equipment upgrades.



China has already issued 81 billion yuan for this year’s trade-in program, officials said this month. It covers more home appliances, electric cars and an up to 15% discount on smartphones priced at 6,000 yuan or less.



Consumers who buy premium phones tend to upgrade and recycle their devices more frequently than buyers on the lower end of the market, indicating the government may want to encourage a new group to shorten their upgrade cycle, said Rex Chen, CFO of ATRenew, which operates stores for processing smartphones and other secondhand goods.



Chen told CNBC on Monday he expects the trade-in subsidies program can boost recycling transaction volumes of eligible products on the platform by at least 10 percentage points, up from 25% growth in 2024. He also expects the government to carry out a similar trade-in policy for the next few years.



However, it’s less clear whether the trade-in program alone can lead to a sustained recovery in consumer demand.



Nomura’s Chief China Economist Ting Lu said in a report Tuesday that he expects the sales boost to fade by the second half of this year, and that tepid new home sales will limit demand for home appliances.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-real-estate"><a></a>Real estate</h2>



Real estate and related sectors such as construction once accounted for more than a quarter of China’s economy. When central authorities started cracking down on developers’ high debt levels in 2020, that had ripple effects on the economy, alongside the Covid-19 pandemic.



China shifted its stance on real estate in September following a high-level meeting led by President Xi Jinping that called for halting the sector’s decline.



Measures to prop up the sector include using a whitelist process to finish construction on the many apartments that have been sold but yet not been built due to developers’ financial constraints. New apartments in China are typically sold ahead of completion.



Jeremy Zook, lead analyst for China at Fitch Ratings, said the real estate market had yet not reached a bottom, and that authorities might provide more direct support. He pointed out that it was difficult for the economy to transition away from real estate, despite China’s wishes to reduce its reliance on the sector for growth.



The government’s latest measures have helped the broader stock market rally, and lifted sentiment slightly.



Sales of new homes in China’s largest cities over the last 30 days have surged by nearly 40% from a year ago, Goldman Sachs analysts said in a Jan. 5 report.



But they cautioned that high inventory levels in smaller cities indicate property prices “have further room to fall” and that homebuilding is “likely to remain depressed for years to come.”



In the relatively affluent city of Foshan — near Guangzhou city in southern China — housing inventory could take 20 months to clear in one district, and seven months in another district, according to a 2024 report from Beike Research Institute, a firm affiliated with a major housing sales platform in China.



The city overall saw floor space sold last year fall by 16% to the lowest in 10 years, the report said.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-geopolitical-concerns"><a></a>Geopolitical concerns</h2>



Complicating China’s economic challenges are tensions with the U.S. Similar to Washington’s export controls, Beijing has also made efforts to ensure national security by prioritizing domestic players in strategic sectors such as technology.



That stance has pressured an increasing number of European businesses in China to localize — despite added costs and reduced productivity — if they are to retain customers in the country, the EU Chamber of Commerce in China said in a report last week.



Official Chinese statements have also emphasized coupling security with development.



A slogan for part of Beijing’s efforts to support growth is an effort to build “security capabilities in key areas,” pointed out Yang Ping, director of the investment research institute within the National Development and Reform Commission. She was speaking at a press event Wednesday.



This year, “boosting consumption has been prioritized ahead of improving investment efficiency,” Yang said in Mandarin, translated by CNBC. “Expanding and boosting consumption are the main focus of this year’s policy adjustment.”



She dismissed concerns that the impact of trade-in subsidies on consumption would fade after an initial spike, and indicated more details would emerge after the March parliamentary meeting.

108042998-1727981319037-gettyimages-2176462447-img_2907_uiod5ijt

China’s slowing economy is waiting for more stimulus. Here’s how the country plans to boost growth

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="461" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/107174540-1672936825177-gettyimages-1245949857-Vuk_Valcic_City_of_London_skyline_020123_3-820x461.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-575588" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/107174540-1672936825177-gettyimages-1245949857-Vuk_Valcic_City_of_London_skyline_020123_3-820x461.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/107174540-1672936825177-gettyimages-1245949857-Vuk_Valcic_City_of_London_skyline_020123_3-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/107174540-1672936825177-gettyimages-1245949857-Vuk_Valcic_City_of_London_skyline_020123_3-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/107174540-1672936825177-gettyimages-1245949857-Vuk_Valcic_City_of_London_skyline_020123_3-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/107174540-1672936825177-gettyimages-1245949857-Vuk_Valcic_City_of_London_skyline_020123_3-1536x864.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/107174540-1672936825177-gettyimages-1245949857-Vuk_Valcic_City_of_London_skyline_020123_3.jpeg 1920w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">People walk along Waterloo Bridge past the City of London skyline, the capital’s financial district. U.K.-focused equity funds saw record outflows in 2022. Sopa Images | Lightrocket | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



The U.K. economy grew at a lackluster pace of 0.1% in November, data from the Office of National Statistics showed Thursday.



This compares with the 0.2% month-on-month growth expected by economists polled by Reuters.



Monthly real gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 0.1% in October, following a decline of 0.1% in September and growth of 0.2% in August.



The ONS said the slight growth in economic output in November was largely due to growth in the services sector. While meager, the data is the first sign of life in the U.K.’s wider economy for three months.



British Chancellor Rachel Reeves said in a statement after the data Thursday that she was “determined to go further and faster to kickstart economic growth.”



“That means generating investment, driving reform and a relentless commitment to root out waste in public spending, and today I will be pressing regulators on what more they can do to deliver growth,” she said in emailed comments from the Treasury.



The ONS nevertheless said the real GDP is estimated to have shown no growth in the three months to November, compared with the three months to August.



“Services showed no growth over this three-month period, while production fell by 0.7% and construction grew by 0.2%,” the ONS said in the data release.



The British pound fell 0.2% against the dollar to trade at $1.2214 following the GDP print, which comes as the Bank of England considers whether to lower interest rates at its next meeting on Feb.6.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-next-bank-of-england-move"><a></a>Next Bank of England move</h2>



A cooler-than-expected annual inflation print for December, out Wednesday, fueled broad expectations of a 25-basis-point rate cut when the central bank meets.



Such a trim would bring the key interest rate from 4.75% to 4.5% although BOE policymakers will be factoring in inflationary pressures, such as resilient wage growth and uncertainty over Britain’s economic outlook. The central bank’s inflation target is 2%.



The Labour government and Treasury have been under pressure in recent weeks amid rising government borrowing costs and questions over their fiscal plans and a higher tax burden on businesses. Both were given something of a reprieve on Wednesday, however, when the latest inflation data showed consumer price growth had cooled more than expected to 2.5% in December,&nbsp;with core price growth slowing further.



The print came in below the expectations of economists polled by Reuters, who had anticipated the inflation rate would remain unchanged from the 2.6% reading of November.



Core inflation, which excludes more volatile food and energy prices, came in at 3.2% in the twelve months to December, down from 3.5% in November.



The U.K.’s inflation rate had hit a more than three-year low of 1.7% in September, but monthly prices had accelerated since then on the back of higher fuel costs and the price of services.&nbsp;In December, the annual services inflation rate stood at 4.4%, down from 5% in November.



The U.K. economy has found itself in a tight spot of late, with economists voicing concerns over the country’s sluggish growth prospects and worries over headwinds caused by both external factors, such as potential trade tariffs once President-elect Donald Trump takes office on Jan. 20, along with internal fiscal and economic challenges that have dogged the Labour government and Treasury since the October budget.



Correction: This article’s headline has been updated to reflect the U.K. economy grew by 0.1% in November. A previous version had misstated the figure.

107174540-1672936825177-gettyimages-1245949857-Vuk_Valcic_City_of_London_skyline_020123_3

UK economy ekes out 0.1% growth in November, below expectations

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<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="720" height="405" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/108086316-1736874753444-gettyimages-2193324665-AFP_36TV4A9.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-575354" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/108086316-1736874753444-gettyimages-2193324665-AFP_36TV4A9.jpeg 720w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/108086316-1736874753444-gettyimages-2193324665-AFP_36TV4A9-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/108086316-1736874753444-gettyimages-2193324665-AFP_36TV4A9-160x90.jpeg 160w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 720px) 100vw, 720px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">World Economic Forum president and CEO Borge Brende holds a press conference to present the upcoming WEF annual meeting held in Davos, in Geneva, on January 14, 2025. Fabrice Coffrini | Afp | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



Risk specialists identified armed conflict, extreme weather and disinformation among the top global risks for the year ahead, according to a World Economic Forum (WEF) survey released on Wednesday.



Nearly a quarter (23%) of respondents in the WEF’s flagship “Global Risks Report” ranked state-based armed conflict as the most pressing concern for 2025.



Misinformation and disinformation were cited as top risks over a two-year time horizon for the&nbsp;second straight year, while environmental concerns such as&nbsp;extreme weather events,&nbsp;biodiversity loss&nbsp;and&nbsp;ecosystem collapse&nbsp;dominated the 10-year risk rankings.



Extreme weather events, which include heatwaves, tornadoes and floods, featured prominently among both short-term and long-term risks. The climate crisis is making extreme weather&nbsp;more frequent and more intense.



The report comes as close to 3,000 leaders from more than 130 countries prepare to take part in the&nbsp;WEF’s annual meeting. The four-day event kicks off in the Swiss&nbsp;mountain village of Davos on Monday.



&#8220;Rising geopolitical tensions and a fracturing of trust are driving the global risk landscape&#8221; said Mirek Dušek, Managing Director, World Economic Forum. &#8220;In this complex and dynamic context, leaders have a choice: to find ways to foster collaboration and resilience, or face compounding vulnerabilities.&#8221;



The survey considers risks over the short term to 2025, the short to medium term to 2027 and the long term through to 2035. More than 900 global risks experts, policymakers and industry leaders were surveyed in September and October last year to inform the report.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-world-is-in-a-dire-state"><a></a>‘World is in a dire state’</h2>



WEF said armed conflict was overlooked as a leading short-term risk two years ago, a development that reflects escalating geopolitical tensions and an increasingly fractured global landscape.



United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has previously&nbsp;warned&nbsp;that the world is facing the highest number of conflicts since World War II, citing Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, as well as conflicts in the Middle East and Africa.



Some of the other short-term risks identified in the WEF’s latest report include societal polarization, cyber espionage, pollution and inequality.



“It’s clear that the world is in a dire state and the global risk landscape is like a squirrel’s nest where risks are interconnected, layered on top of one another, making the business environment very, very difficult to navigate,” Carolina Klint, chief commercial officer at Marsh McLennan Europe, told CNBC’s Silvia Amaro in an interview out Wednesday.



Klint said these risks do not necessarily reflect a new emerging trend — but rather one that is “getting more and more aggressive.”



“I think we’re navigating an era now marked by increasing economic tensions,” Klint said. “And I think we have to recognize the fragmentation is not a theoretical concern. It is something that we need to confront today. So, it has resulted in a more complex and uncertain trading environment.”

108086316-1736874753444-gettyimages-2193324665-AFP_36TV4A9

Conflict, extreme weather and disinformation top global risks in 2025, Davos survey says

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="461" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/107375514-1708434236970-gettyimages-1985552002-20240207_bank_of_england_010-1-820x461.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-575285" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/107375514-1708434236970-gettyimages-1985552002-20240207_bank_of_england_010-1-820x461.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/107375514-1708434236970-gettyimages-1985552002-20240207_bank_of_england_010-1-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/107375514-1708434236970-gettyimages-1985552002-20240207_bank_of_england_010-1-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/107375514-1708434236970-gettyimages-1985552002-20240207_bank_of_england_010-1-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/107375514-1708434236970-gettyimages-1985552002-20240207_bank_of_england_010-1-1536x864.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/107375514-1708434236970-gettyimages-1985552002-20240207_bank_of_england_010-1.jpeg 1920w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Photo: via CNBC</figcaption></figure>



LONDON — U.K. inflation fell to a lower-than-expected 2.5% in December,&nbsp;with core price growth slowing further,&nbsp;according to data released by the Office for National Statistics on Wednesday.



The consumer price index (CPI) rose to 2.6% in November, with economists polled by Reuters expecting the December reading to stay unchanged.



Core inflation, which excludes more volatile food and energy prices, came in at 3.2% in the twelve months to December, down from 3.5% in November.



The U.K.’s inflation rate had hit a more than three-year low of 1.7% in September, with monthly prices picking up since on the back of higher fuel costs and of services fees rising rising faster than the price of goods.&nbsp;In December, the annual services inflation rate stood at 4.4%, down from 5% in November.



The British pound was down 0.3% against the dollar at 07:15 a.m. London time, shortly after the release.



The data will be food for thought for the Bank of England ahead of its next meeting on Feb.6, at which&nbsp;the central bank is expected to cut the key interest rate from 4.75% to 4.5%, despite inflationary pressures, such as resilient wage growth and uncertainty over Britain’s economic outlook. The central bank’s inflation target is 2%.



The U.K. economy has found itself in a tight spot of late, with economists voicing concerns over the country’s sluggish growth prospects and worries over headwinds caused by both external factors, such as potential trade tariffs once President-elect Donald Trump takes office, and internal fiscal and economic challenges that have dogged the Labour government and Treasury since the October budget.



Responding the latest data, British Chancellor Rachel Reeves said Wednesday that “there is still work to be done to help families across the country with the cost of living,” and that economic growth was the U.K.’s priority.



The data&nbsp;will&nbsp;be “welcome news” for Rachel Reeves, Capital Economics’ Deputy Chief UK&nbsp;Economist Ruth Gregory commented, with underlying price pressures appearing “a bit more favourable than we had thought.”



The reading strengthened the case for a&nbsp;25-basis-point&nbsp;interest rate cut by the BOE in February, she said in emailed comments, “and lends some support to our view that rates will fall further and faster than markets expect.”



“Our forecast is that CPI inflation will rebound in January, perhaps to almost 3.0% and that inflation will be a bit higher than most expect in the first half of this year. But we expect it to drop below the 2% target next year as the persistence of inflation fades further,” she said.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-fiscal-challenges"><a></a>Fiscal challenges</h2>



Tax rises announced by the government last fall, which are due to come into effect in April, have caused consternation among British businesses that warn that investment, hiring and growth will be stunted.



The U.K. also saw its borrowing costs and currency weaken amid jitters over the country’s economic outlook and fiscal plans, posing a dilemma for Finance Minister Rachel Reeves’s ambitions to balance the budget.



Reeves has vowed to keep to self-imposed fiscal rules to make sure all day-to-day spending is met from revenues and that government debt is on a downward trend. She could now be forced to decide whether to tweak or break these restrictions.



The choice she faces is to do nothing and hope that unfavorable borrowing conditions subside, to hike taxes further — a move likely to elicit more criticism from businesses and the public — or to cut public spending, a step that is already mooted by the government but goes against Labour’s anti-“austerity” position. Last weekend, Reeves said the fiscal rules laid out in the budget were “non-negotiable,” adding that “economic stability is the bedrock for economic growth and prosperity.”



Ben Zaranko, associate director at the Institute for Fiscal Studies, said Reeves faces “a rather unenviable set of options.”



“This unfortunate predicament is largely the consequence of a difficult fiscal inheritance and global economic factors,” he said in comment.



“But it also reflects a series of government choices and mutually incompatible promises: to stick to a hard, numerical fiscal rule while leaving only the finest of margins against it; to prioritise public services and avoid imposing another round of austerity; not to raise the biggest taxes, and not to raise taxes again after the Autumn Budget; and to hold only one fiscal event per year. If higher interest rates wipe out the so called ‘headroom’, something will have to give,” Zaranko added.

107375514-1708434236970-gettyimages-1985552002-20240207_bank_of_england_010 (1)

UK inflation unexpectedly cools to 2.5%, core price print slows further

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<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="461" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/108083800-17363625762025-01-08t185239z_2145872781_rc2u5ca99h17_rtrmadp_0_usa-court-tiktok-820x461.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-575022" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/108083800-17363625762025-01-08t185239z_2145872781_rc2u5ca99h17_rtrmadp_0_usa-court-tiktok-820x461.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/108083800-17363625762025-01-08t185239z_2145872781_rc2u5ca99h17_rtrmadp_0_usa-court-tiktok-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/108083800-17363625762025-01-08t185239z_2145872781_rc2u5ca99h17_rtrmadp_0_usa-court-tiktok-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/108083800-17363625762025-01-08t185239z_2145872781_rc2u5ca99h17_rtrmadp_0_usa-court-tiktok-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/108083800-17363625762025-01-08t185239z_2145872781_rc2u5ca99h17_rtrmadp_0_usa-court-tiktok-1536x864.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/108083800-17363625762025-01-08t185239z_2145872781_rc2u5ca99h17_rtrmadp_0_usa-court-tiktok.jpeg 1600w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Dado Ruvic | Reuters</figcaption></figure>



Chinese social media app RedNote has skyrocketed to the top of Apple’s app store, underscoring concerns that TikTok will soon be effectively banned in the U.S.



RedNote, or Xiaohongshu, as it’s known in China, is the No. 1 free app on the Apple app store as of Monday, followed by TikTok’s photo-sharing Lemon8 app and OpenAI’s ChatGPT.



Many TikTok creators are rushing to find alternatives where they can continue posting videos while waiting to see what happens with TikTok, which faces a potential Jan. 19 ban in the U.S. The Supreme Court held oral arguments last week about the April law setting the stage for a ban, and seemed to side more favorably with the U.S. government’s arguments that ByteDance’s ownership of TikTok poses a national security risk.



Attorneys representing TikTok and creators argued that the law violates the free-speech protections of millions of its U.S. users.



If the Supreme Court upholds the law, third-party service providers such as Apple and Google will be penalized for supporting TikTok, thus effectively banning the app in the U.S. It’s unclear whether President-elect Donald Trump, who takes office on Jan. 20, would choose to enforce the law.



Some TikTok creators are enacting contingency plans by migrating to RedNote.



One content creator, who goes by the username allieusyaps, said in a post Monday that while “it’s OK” that TikTok could be banned in the U.S., he and other TikTok creators “aren’t going back to Instagram and Facebook,” because they joined RedNote.



“Look I might not have a job in the next week, but we about to learn Mandarin baby!” the user wrote.



Another TikTok creator named Krystan Walmsley posted a short video teaching people how to set up and decorate their RedNote accounts.



“This app is so cute and it’s a lot of fun so far,” Walmsley said.



RedNote, based in Shanghai, was founded in 2013, and has increasingly challenged Alibaba and Douyin, ByteDance’s version of TikTok in China, in e-commerce and social media. It had about 300 million monthly active users as of July 2024, according to a report by the South China Morning Post.



RedNote was valued at $17 billion after raising funding in July from investors such as Boyu Capital and HongShan Capital Group, formerly Sequoia Capital’s Chinese investment arm, according to PitchBook. It’s raised over $900 million in total funding and has more than 2,000 employees, PitchBook said.



Representatives from RedNote and TikTok didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.

108083800-17363625762025-01-08t185239z_2145872781_rc2u5ca99h17_rtrmadp_0_usa-court-tiktok

Users worried about TikTok ban appear to be downloading a different Chinese social media app

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<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="461" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/107316539-1697159674866-gettyimages-1720140335-fc_1113145-1-820x461.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-574781" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/107316539-1697159674866-gettyimages-1720140335-fc_1113145-1-820x461.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/107316539-1697159674866-gettyimages-1720140335-fc_1113145-1-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/107316539-1697159674866-gettyimages-1720140335-fc_1113145-1-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/107316539-1697159674866-gettyimages-1720140335-fc_1113145-1-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/107316539-1697159674866-gettyimages-1720140335-fc_1113145-1-1536x864.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/107316539-1697159674866-gettyimages-1720140335-fc_1113145-1.jpeg 1600w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">An aerial view of a container ship leaving the dockyard in Qingdao in east China’s Shandong province. Future Publishing | Future Publishing | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



China’s trade data in December beat expectations by a large margin, with exporters continuing to frontload shipments as worries over additional tariffs mount, while the country’s stimulus measures appear to be supporting demand in the industrial sector.



Exports in December jumped 10.7% in U.S. dollar terms from a year earlier, data from China’s customs authority showed Monday, beating expectations of a 7.3% growth in a Reuters poll. That compares with a 6.7% growth in November and a spike of 12.7% in October.



Customs data showed imports rose 1.0% last month from a year earlier, reversing from the contraction in the preceding two months. Analysts had forecast imports to fall 1.5% on year. That compares with a bigger drop of 3.9% in November and 2.3% in October.



Last year, China’s yuan-denominated total exports jumped 7.1% from the previous year, accelerating from a modest growth of 0.6% in 2023, customs officials said at a press conference on Monday.



China’s imports last year rose 2.3%, picking up from a fall of 0.3% in 2023.



“Outbound shipments are likely to stay resilient in the near-term, supported by further gains in the global market share,” Zichun Huang, China economist at Capital Economics, said in a note, thanks to a weak yuan.



The outlook for exports for the full year, however, appears less optimistic, as “potential tariff hikes could dampen momentum,” said Bruce Pang, distinguished senior research fellow at the National Institution for Finance and Development.



“In the short term, import volumes are also expected to rebound further, driven by stronger demand for industrial commodities, with accelerated fiscal spending,” Pang added.



China’s domestic demand has been hit due to a prolonged real estate crisis, leaving the country more reliant on exports to power its growth.



Economists expect exports to have significantly supported China’s economic growth last year. The country’s full-year GDP data is due later this week.



Exports have been a rare bright spot in China’s battered economy amid heightened trade tensions with its major trading partners — U.S., European Union — but this growth could be jeopardized after U.S. President-elect Donald Trump returns to the White House.



This year, China will need to focus more on boosting domestic demand as external momentum fades, Gary Ng, senior economist at Natixis told CNBC in an email. “China’s deflationary pressure in the manufacturing sector may continue to fuel more geopolitical tensions,” he added.



Weak consumer sentiment, uneven recovery in real estate and tepid growth in local government infrastructure projects continue to slow down domestic demand recovery, Ng said.



In December, shipments to most markets climbed, with double-digit increases to the Association of Southeast Asian Nation and the U.S., where exports grew 18.9% and 15.6%, respectively, from a year earlier, according to CNBC’s calculations of the official customs data.



Imports from the U.S. in December rose 2.6% and ASEAN — China’s largest trading partner — were up 5.4%.



Exports to the European Union rose 8.76% while imports fell 4.9%. The country’s exports to BRICS partner Russia were up 5.5% while imports shrank 4.7%.



Last year, China’s exports of electric vehicles and semiconductors increased 13.1% and 18.7% last year, respectively, according to the customs officials.



Meanwhile, the country’s steel exports hit the highest level since 2015, with shipments hitting 110.7 million tons, as the country strived to make up for weak domestic demand due to a property crisis and a slowdown in manufacturing activities.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-a-residue-of-caution"><a></a>‘A residue of caution’</h2>



Trump — who is set to take office on Jan. 20 — has stoked fears about higher tariffs on Chinese exports. He has pledged an additional 10% tariffs on all Chinese goods entering the U.S.



Chinese authorities have since late September ramped up policy support to prop up the country’s economy as growth staggers and social tensions mount. But “a residue of caution and restraint remains,” Gabriel Wildau, managing director at Teneo said in a note last Friday.



China has cut policy rates, loosened property purchase restrictions, injected liquidity into the financial market as well as unveiled a debt-swap program to alleviate local governments’ fiscal strains.



“Though top leaders recognize the need to boost real GDP growth, Xi still appears reluctant to embrace the additional degree of stimulus required to combat deflation,” Wildau added.



“Policymakers need to keep some stimulus powder dry to enable an ample response if the tariff impact is severe,” he said, suggesting that the uncertainty about exports growth creates an additional reason for Beijing to avoid a “big bang approach.”



Among a slew of key economic data on tap this week, China is set to release its full-year as well as fourth-quarter GDP figures on Friday. The growth is pegged at 5.1% year on year in the final quarter of 2024, according to a Reuters poll.



For this year, the top leadership pledged to make boosting domestic consumption a top priority while expanding fiscal spending to fund the consumer goods trade-in and equipment upgrade policy. Launched in July last year, the trade-in program subsidizes consumers to swap old cars or home appliances and buy new ones at a discount.

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