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<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/107316512-1697153033777-gettyimages-1648081445-AFP_33UD6V9-820x547.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-428218" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/107316512-1697153033777-gettyimages-1648081445-AFP_33UD6V9-820x547.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/107316512-1697153033777-gettyimages-1648081445-AFP_33UD6V9-300x200.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/107316512-1697153033777-gettyimages-1648081445-AFP_33UD6V9-135x90.jpeg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/107316512-1697153033777-gettyimages-1648081445-AFP_33UD6V9-768x512.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/107316512-1697153033777-gettyimages-1648081445-AFP_33UD6V9-1536x1025.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/107316512-1697153033777-gettyimages-1648081445-AFP_33UD6V9-scaled.jpeg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Yellow taxi cabs drive down a road in Senegal’s capital city of Dakar on Sept. 6, 2023. John Wessels | Afp | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



BEIJING — An ambassador of an African country to China has criticized the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank for restrictive lending policies.



“The problem is that the ratings we are making for the African [countries] should be different,” Ibrahima Sory Sylla, ambassador for the West African country of&nbsp;Senegal, said Thursday at an event at Peking University.



He said ratings from Fitch or Standard and Poor’s don’t take into account local factors such as&nbsp;food security&nbsp;— but they are the basis for IMF and World Bank assessments of economic sustainability.



The number of people in West Africa experiencing an acute lack of food surged by nearly 40% in a year, according to a&nbsp;Reuters report&nbsp;in December citing the United Nation’s World Food Programme. The figure surged 60% during that time for the number of East Africans, the report said.



Senegal significantly increased its borrowing from China in 2021 and 2022, according to the Chinese Loans to Africa database managed by Boston University’s Global Development Policy Center.



While that reflected a spike in West African borrowing, such loan activity was more muted in other parts of Africa — reversing a growth trend of the last 20 years, the data showed.



“What we can understand is that so many [multilateral development banks] through the G20 [debt] suspension initiative, they said you have to go through this initiative, but when you [do so], they suddenly decided to downgrade your risk,” Senegal’s Sylla said. “And most of the developed countries, the Western countries, they can go beyond to 200% of the ratio between the debt and the GDP. Their rating is not downgraded.”&nbsp;



The IMF, World Bank and S&amp;P did not immediately respond to CNBC’s request for comment.



A Fitch Ratings spokesperson told CNBC all its sovereign rating decisions are “taken solely in accordance with one globally consistent and publicly available rating criteria.”



“Rating decisions are based on independent, robust, transparent and timely analysis,” the person added.



“My sincere belief is that IMF officials, World Bank officials, they are sincere in their belief that their debt sustainability framework works and works for the greater good,” said Jang Ping Thia, lead economist and manager of the economics department at the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.



“Many times, the IMF chief at the desk, try their best to stretch the envelope for the country,” Thia said at the same event Thursday.



Thia said he just returned from a trip to Africa two weeks ago and saw a “brand-new city” being built by many Chinese contractors — but with very low occupancy.



“That makes me very worried,” he said, declining to name the specific African country.



“The loan itself matters, infrastructure matters, but timing and debt management and absorption capacity matters, coordinating and staggering out and having a plan,” said the AIIB economist. “Build slowly, get people in, build more, is sometimes much more efficient, maybe not as big [a] bang.”



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-belt-and-road-forum"><a></a>Belt and Road Forum</h2>



The event about Chinese financing to Africa came just days before the country was set to hold its third Belt and Road forum, a gathering of countries involved in the China-led initiative for regional infrastructure development. Russian President Vladimir Putin is set to attend the forum, scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday in Beijing.



Critics say the Belt and Road Initiative is a way for China to expand its global influence, while forcing poor countries to take on debt for infrastructure development, only to find themselves unable to repay the loans.



From 2000 to 2020, China loaned $160 billion to African countries, according to a report released Thursday by Peking University’s Institute of New Structural Economics. The research claimed every 1% increase in Chinese loans resulted in an increase of 0.176% in African economic growth.



Allan Joseph Chintedza, ambassador of Malawi to China, said the report should look also at the repayment period for Chinese loans.



“The gesture and what the [Belt and Road Initiative] is trying to do is perfect. It would be very sad if we actually lost out because we are not addressing some of the key issues that we need to address that you gave,” Chintedza said, without specifying.



The East African country needs&nbsp;to provide a “sustainability letter”&nbsp;from the Chinese government in order to borrow more from the IMF, Chintedza added. “Instead of us concentrating on implementing these agent programs, we are caught in between negotiations of trying to raise [funds], to improve or at least justify the debts that we have.”



“I think the majority of the loans has to be extended because that’s the only way we can be given breathing space to be able to meet the requirements but also to invest in the social sense,” he said.



Malawi has borrowed $484.6 million from China since 2000, according to the Chinese Loans to Africa Database, which does not track repayments.



“I cannot deny that the financing cooperation between China and Africa are facing some challenge or difficulties, because [of] some [countries] defaulting and the debt problem is in front of us,” said Wu Peng, director-general for the department of African affairs&nbsp;at China’s foreign ministry.



“So we cannot ignore this challenge. But I have &#8230; confidence that we still can cooperate in this field,” Wu said, adding that he is working with Chinese banks on loans for railway projects in Western Africa, which will likely be announced “in weeks.”

107316512-1697153033777-gettyimages-1648081445-AFP_33UD6V9

African ambassador criticizes IMF, World Bank for not giving enough loans

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<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="462" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/107316539-1697159674866-gettyimages-1720140335-fc_1113145-820x462.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-428174" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/107316539-1697159674866-gettyimages-1720140335-fc_1113145-820x462.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/107316539-1697159674866-gettyimages-1720140335-fc_1113145-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/107316539-1697159674866-gettyimages-1720140335-fc_1113145-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/107316539-1697159674866-gettyimages-1720140335-fc_1113145-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/107316539-1697159674866-gettyimages-1720140335-fc_1113145.jpeg 929w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">An aerial view of a container ship leaving the dockyard in Qingdao in east China’s Shandong province. Future Publishing | Future Publishing | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



BEIJING — China reported a smaller-than-expected decline in exports in September from a year ago, while imports missed, according to customs data released Friday.



In U.S.-dollar terms, exports fell by 6.2% last month from a year ago. That’s less than the 7.6% drop forecast by analysts in a Reuters poll.



Imports also fell by 6.2% in U.S.-dollar terms in September compared to a year ago — slightly more than the 6% decline expected by the Reuters poll.



China’s exports have fallen on a year-on-year basis every month this year starting in May. The last positive print for imports on a year-on-year basis was in September last year.



China’s trade slumped this year amid lackluster global demand for Chinese good and muted domestic demand.



Bucking the decline in trade with major trading partners were Chinese imports from the European Union, up modestly in September from a year ago, according to CNBC calculations of the official data.



The U.S. is China’s largest trading partner on a single-country basis, while the Association of Southeast Asian Nations has recently surpassed the EU as China’s largest trading partner on a regional basis.



For the first three quarters of the year, China’s exports to the U.S. fell by 16.4%, while imports dropped by 6% during that time.



Russia was the only major country or region in the Chinese customs agency’s report that showed growth in both exports and imports for the first three quarters of the year from a year ago.



By product category, China’s global export of autos remained the fastest growing, up on a unit basis by 64.4% from a year ago for the first three quarters of 2023. That’s slower than the 69% pace for the year recorded as of August.



China’s exports of ships and boats for the year picked up pace from August on a unit basis to a 16.2% year-on-year increase in the third quarter.



The volume of China’s cosmetics imports fell by 14.2% in the first three quarters compared to a year ago. The volume of crude oil imports rose by 14.6% during that time but fell on a U.S. dollar basis.



The pace of crude oil imports on a year-to-date basis in September was little changed from August.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-slowing-economic-growth"><a></a>Slowing economic growth</h2>



China’s recovery from the pandemic slowed in the last few months, dragged down by a slump in the massive real estate sector.



The International Monetary Fund this week trimmed its 2023 China growth forecast to 5% from 5.2%, while maintaining a global growth forecast of 3% for the year. The world economy grew by 3.5% last year.



China is set to report September retail sales on Oct. 18, along with third-quarter GDP figures.



Amid rising tensions with the U.S. and Europe in the last few years, China has sought to boost its trade with regional partners in Southeast Asia, as well as countries participating in the Belt and Road Initiative. The BRI is a China-led push for developing regional infrastructure such as ports and railways.



As of the end of September, China said it has trains running to 217 cities in 25 European countries.



Cargo transported along those rail lines accounted for 8% of China-EU trade in 2022, up from 1.5% in 2016, Chinese officials said this week.



China also claimed imports and exports with Belt and Road partner countries reached $19.1 trillion between 2013 and 2022 — for an average annual growth in trade of 6.4%.



The third Belt and Road forum is scheduled to be held in Beijing Tuesday and Wednesday. Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to attend.

107316539-1697159674866-gettyimages-1720140335-fc_1113145

China’s exports and imports drop again in September

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<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="462" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/107296969-1694088895591-gettyimages-1664577879-_dsc7331-820x462.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-428157" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/107296969-1694088895591-gettyimages-1664577879-_dsc7331-820x462.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/107296969-1694088895591-gettyimages-1664577879-_dsc7331-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/107296969-1694088895591-gettyimages-1664577879-_dsc7331-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/107296969-1694088895591-gettyimages-1664577879-_dsc7331-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/107296969-1694088895591-gettyimages-1664577879-_dsc7331.jpeg 929w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">A person goes through a note pad while shopping for items at a Costco Wholesale store on September 6, 2023 in Colchester, Vermont.  Robert Nickelsberg | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



Prices that consumers pay for a wide variety of goods and services increased at a slightly faster-than-expected pace in September, keeping inflation in the spotlight for policymakers.



The consumer price index, a closely followed inflation gauge, increased 0.4% on the month and 3.7% from a year ago, according to a Labor Department report Thursday. That compared with respective Dow Jones estimates of 0.3% and 3.6%. Headline inflation increased 0.6% in August.



Excluding volatile food and energy prices, the so-called core CPI increased 0.3% on the month and 4.1% on a 12-month basis, both exactly in line with expectations. Policymakers place more weight on the core numbers as they tend to be better predictors of long-term trends. Core inflation also increased 0.3% in August, when it was up 4.3% from the previous 12 months.



In keeping with recent trends, shelter costs were the main factor in the inflation increase. The index for shelter, which makes up about one-third of the CPI weighting, accelerated 0.6% for the month and 7.2% from a year ago. On a monthly basis, shelter accounted for more than half the rise in the CPI, the Labor Department said.



Energy costs rose 1.5%, including a 2.1% pickup in gasoline prices and 8.5% in fuel oil, and food was up 0.2% for the third month in a row. On a 12-month basis, food costs climbed 3.7%, including a 6% increase for food away from home, while energy costs were off 0.5%.



Services prices, considered a key for the longer-run direction for inflation, also posted a 0.6% gain excluding energy services, and were up 5.7% on a 12-month basis. Vehicle prices were mixed, with new vehicles up 0.3% and used down 2.5%. Used vehicle prices, a big driver of inflation in the early days of the Covid pandemic, were down 8% from a year ago.



Among the major CPI components, the other main decliners were apparel (-0.8%) and medical care commodities (-0.3%). Medical care services increased 0.3% on the month but were down 2.6% on an annual basis.



Markets showed only a modest reaction to the report. Stocks edged higher at the open, while Treasury yields came off previous lows, with longer-duration notes little changed.



The CPI increase meant worker wages fell in real terms.



Real average hourly earnings dropped 0.2% on the month, owing to the difference between the inflation rate and the 0.2% gain in nominal earnings, the Labor Department said in a separate report. On a yearly basis, earnings were up 0.5%.



“Just because the rate of inflation is stable for now doesn’t mean its weight isn’t increasing every month on family budgets,” said Robert Frick, corporate economist with Navy Federal Credit Union. “That shelter and food costs rose particularly is especially painful.”



In other economic news Thursday, the Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims totaled 209,000, unchanged from the previous week and just below the 210,000 estimate.



The CPI report comes with Federal Reserve officials contemplating their next policy moves.



Minutes from the Fed’s September meeting, released Wednesday, reflected divisions within the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee. The meeting concluded with the committee opting not to raise interest rates, but the summary showed lingering concern about inflation and worries that upside risks remain.



Since then, however, Treasury yields have jumped, at one point hitting 16-year highs.



Multiple Fed officials have said that the increases could negate the need for further policy tightening, and markets now are pricing only a small chance that the central bank votes to hike before the end of the year. Market pricing further indicates that the Fed will shave about 0.75 percentage point off its key borrowing rate before the end of 2024.



Recent days, though, have brought mixed news on where inflation is heading.



The Labor Department said Wednesday that prices at the wholesale level increased 0.5% in September, pushing the 12-month rate to 2.2%, the highest since April and above the Fed’s goal of 2% inflation.



Correction: The Labor Department said Wednesday that prices at the wholesale level increased 0.5% in September. An earlier version misstated the day.

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<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/107306302-1695688601427-gettyimages-1230255793-AFP_8XJ9FN-820x547.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-428057" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/107306302-1695688601427-gettyimages-1230255793-AFP_8XJ9FN-820x547.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/107306302-1695688601427-gettyimages-1230255793-AFP_8XJ9FN-300x200.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/107306302-1695688601427-gettyimages-1230255793-AFP_8XJ9FN-135x90.jpeg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/107306302-1695688601427-gettyimages-1230255793-AFP_8XJ9FN-768x512.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/107306302-1695688601427-gettyimages-1230255793-AFP_8XJ9FN-1536x1024.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/107306302-1695688601427-gettyimages-1230255793-AFP_8XJ9FN-scaled.jpeg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">A woman spreads cocoa beans during the sun-drying process in the backyard of her house in Asikasu, Ghana on December 19, 2020. Cristina Aldehuela | Afp | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



El Nino is here to stay — and that’s bad news for cocoa crops which are highly sensitive to weather changes.&nbsp;



Frequent extreme weather events caused by El Nino and climate change hurts cocoa production. Hotter temperatures and shifts in rainfall patterns can also damage cocoa pod development and promote the spread of pests and diseases.



According to the the latest El Nino-Southern Oscillation Outlook, El Nino is expected to last through January to March 2024, with a 71% chance it will intensify from November to January. 



An intensified and frequent El Nino effect could significantly reduce the amount of arable land for cocoa cultivation. This not only poses a threat to food security, but also endangers the livelihoods of farmers, especially those in West African countries, which are most at risk from extreme weather changes.



“El Nino conditions are often historically associated with drier conditions in West Africa where three-quarters of the world’s cocoa is produced,” Jonathan Haines, research director at Gro Intelligence told CNBC.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-top-cocoa-producers"><a></a>Top cocoa producers</h2>



Cocoa comes from the seed of the cacao tree and is an essential ingredient for chocolates.



But it’s not only used in food and confectionery. Cocoa butter — a byproduct of cocoa processing — is also widely used in the pharmaceutical industry for skincare products and cosmetics.



Africa accounts for nearly 75% of global cocoa production, while the Americas — including Brazil and Ecuador — make up 20%, according to the International Cocoa Organization. Asia-Pacific produces the remaining 5%, with Indonesia and Papua New Guinea being the largest producers in the region.



West Africa’s Cote d’Ivoire — or the Ivory Coast — is the world’s largest cocoa producer, accounting for about 44% of global production, while neighboring Ghana accounts for about 14%.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a></a>Cost of climate change</h2>



As temperatures soar, more and more suitable cacao cultivation areas will be pushed uphill by 2050, according to Climate.gov, a climate change science and information portal run by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.



With the optimal altitude for cacao cultivation expected to rise, cocoa farmers may be forced to move harvests to higher ground.



“Cocoa farmers facing critical decisions may start looking to higher-altitude regions where the weather is more favorable for cocoa cultivation, or some may decide to leave cocoa cultivation altogether,” Kerry Daroci, the cocoa sector lead at the Rainforest Alliance, told CNBC.



The financial damage of climate change can be extremely costly, especially since top cocoa-producers like Ivory Coast, Ghana and Indonesia, are vulnerable to extreme weather conditions.



According to a report by the Economist Intelligence Unit, a high intensity El Nino may result in severe economic disruption across Africa. Businesses in the agricultural sector are also at risk from an increase in farm input prices that can drive up overhead costs.



The financial cost of El Nino and climate change remains unquantified for Cote d’Ivoire and Ghana. However, as profits from cocoa make up 70% to 100% of Ghanaian cocoa producers’ income, any decline in yields will have a substantial impact on their livelihoods, said Daroci from the Rainforest Alliance.



West African producers aren’t the only ones impacted.



“In Indonesia, climate change is reducing productivity by approximately 50%, leading to an estimated loss of $666 per hectare, affecting up to one million hectares,” Daroci added. 



As it stands, cocoa prices have already surged to “high premiums,”&nbsp;according to the International Cocoa Organization.



At the end of August, cocoa futures settled at $3,730 per tonne in London, and $3,633 per tonne in New York, ICCO’s latest data showed. That’s a 78% jump from $2,095 per tonne in London a year ago and a nearly 50% year-on-year surge from $2,427 per tonne in New York.



“This represents the highest nearby contract price for the 2022/23 season,” the report said.



Prices of cocoa are at their highest in 50 years, according to a Reuters report.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a></a>Adaptation and mitigation</h2>



Climate change is not a new phenomenon, but the impact of an intensified El Nino&nbsp;this year has made it more&nbsp;urgent to stem its adverse impact on cocoa production.



“We have reached a juncture in the climate crisis where harm reduction is no longer enough,” said Daroci.



Agricultural adaptation and mitigation efforts are some ways to tackle specific climate threats — but they&nbsp;can be&nbsp;costly.



Climate adaptation refers to adjusting processes and structures to prevent or minimize potential damages caused by climate change. Mitigation involves lessening the impact of climate change by cutting down on emissions of greenhouse gases.



“Research indicates that investments in these initiatives must triple by 2030 and quadruple by 2050,” Daroci said. “This would result in a total investment of up to $8.1 trillion over time, with an annual investment rate of $536 billion in the future.”



“Despite the urgent need to invest in nature-based solutions, a significant funding gap remains,” she added.



Separately, a report by the Environmental Protection Agency — an independent agency of the U.S. government responsible for environmental protection matters — underscored financing as a key challenge to investing in adaptation in Ghana.



“The understanding of climate change in main cocoa producing countries like West Africa and Indonesia, is very rudimentary,”&nbsp;Steffany Bermudez, policy advisor at the International Institute for Sustainable Development, told CNBC.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a></a>Helping cocoa farmers</h2>



Additionally, adaptation methods often do not have immediate returns, and that deters financial institutions from investing in these areas.&nbsp;



“Private sector capital can be instrumental in the adoption of actions to adapt to climate change,” Bermudez said, adding that support from the private sector can be “a bridge for engagement with key financiers to build the sector’s resilience.”



Projects and initiatives organized by non-profit organizations can also help alleviate the financial burden on cocoa farmers learning to adapt to climate change.



The Rainforest Alliance, a non-governmental organization, started the Restore project — or Resilient Ecosystems and Transforming Rural Cocoa Economies, in Cote d’Ivoire and Ghana.



The project has set aside $7 million&nbsp;to help&nbsp;15,000 farmers manage 50,000 hectares of farmland, and aims to expand tree cover in cocoa production landscapes across the two countries.&nbsp;



Even though the challenges for cocoa farmers are mounting, there could be some reprieve.&nbsp;



Cocoa cultivation may fare better than expected this year, as higher levels of&nbsp;rain&nbsp;ease the impact of elevated droughts from El Nino,&nbsp;Haines from Gro Intelligence said.



“Precipitation in Cote d’Ivoire and Ghana has actually been very strong in 2023 … In Ghana, rainfall in cocoa areas is at its highest level since at least 2001 by a strong margin,”&nbsp;Haines told CNBC.



— CNBC’s Joanna Tan contributed to this report.

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