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<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="462" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/107266857-1688570168592-gettyimages-1514181637-_tk_8541_l7n0eeit-820x462.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-426552" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/107266857-1688570168592-gettyimages-1514181637-_tk_8541_l7n0eeit-820x462.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/107266857-1688570168592-gettyimages-1514181637-_tk_8541_l7n0eeit-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/107266857-1688570168592-gettyimages-1514181637-_tk_8541_l7n0eeit-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/107266857-1688570168592-gettyimages-1514181637-_tk_8541_l7n0eeit-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/107266857-1688570168592-gettyimages-1514181637-_tk_8541_l7n0eeit.jpeg 929w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Secret Service Police stand by as climate activists occupy Lafayette Park with a 120 foot banner demanding President Biden act on climate change near the White House on July 04, 2023 in Washington, DC. Tasos Katopodis | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



Fitch Ratings downgraded the United States’ long-term foreign currency issuer default rating to AA+ from AAA on Tuesday, pointing to “expected fiscal deterioration over the next three years,” an erosion of governance and a growing general debt burden.



“The repeated debt-limit political standoffs and last-minute resolutions have eroded confidence in fiscal management,” said Fitch.



U.S. stock futures opened lower after the rating agency issued its downgrade, with Dow futures sliding about 100 points.



In May, the agency placed the nation’s AAA rating on negative watch, blaming the debt ceiling fight. At the time, lawmakers in Washington butted heads over an agreement that would keep the federal government from running out of money. President Joe Biden signed the debt ceiling bill on June 2, just days away from the “X-date” on June 5.



The country’s recent debt limit feud was mentioned again in Tuesday’s downgrade.



“In Fitch’s view, there has been a steady deterioration in standards of governance over the last 20 years, including on fiscal and debt matters, notwithstanding the June bipartisan agreement to suspend the debt limit until January 2025,” the ratings agency said.



Fitch also highlighted the rising general government deficit, which it anticipates will rise to 6.3% of gross domestic product in 2023, from 3.7% in 2022. “Cuts to non-defense discretionary spending (15% of total federal spending) as agreed in the Fiscal Responsibility Act offer only a modest improvement to the medium-term fiscal outlook,” Fitch said.



The agency also noted that a combination of tightening credit conditions, weakening business investment and a slowdown in consumption could lead the economy into a “mild” recession in the fourth quarter of 2023 and first quarter of next year.



The White House disagreed with Fitch’s downgrade. “It defies reality to downgrade the United States at a moment when President Biden has delivered the strongest recovery of any major economy in the world,” press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said.



This isn’t the first time a rating agency has downgraded the U.S. Standard &amp; Poor’s cut the nation’s credit rating to AA+ from AAA in 2011 after Washington managed to avoid a default. At the time, the agency highlighted political risk as part of its reasoning.



&#8211;CNBC’s Christina Wilkie contributed reporting.

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Fitch downgrades U.S. long-term rating to AA+ from AAA

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/107279962-1690905799907-gettyimages-1513202449-INDIA-ASSAM-NAGAON-PADDY-820x547.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-426544" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/107279962-1690905799907-gettyimages-1513202449-INDIA-ASSAM-NAGAON-PADDY-820x547.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/107279962-1690905799907-gettyimages-1513202449-INDIA-ASSAM-NAGAON-PADDY-300x200.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/107279962-1690905799907-gettyimages-1513202449-INDIA-ASSAM-NAGAON-PADDY-135x90.jpeg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/107279962-1690905799907-gettyimages-1513202449-INDIA-ASSAM-NAGAON-PADDY-768x512.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/107279962-1690905799907-gettyimages-1513202449-INDIA-ASSAM-NAGAON-PADDY-1536x1024.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/107279962-1690905799907-gettyimages-1513202449-INDIA-ASSAM-NAGAON-PADDY-scaled.jpeg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /></figure>



India’s rice export ban could ripple across global rice markets — and millions are expected to be impacted, with Asian and African consumers set to bear the biggest brunt.



India, the world’s largest rice exporter, banned the exports of non-basmati white rice on Jul. 20, as the government sought to tame surging domestic food prices and “ensure adequate domestic availability at reasonable prices.”



The country accounts for more than 40% of the global rice trade.



“Malaysia appears to be the most vulnerable according to our analysis,” Barclays said in a recent report, highlighting the country’s sizable reliance on Indian rice.



“It imports a substantial portion of its rice supply, and India accounts for a relatively large share of its rice imports,” the analysts wrote.&nbsp;



Singapore is likely to be affected as well, with the report showing that India makes up around 30% of the city state’s rice imports.



However, Barclays noted that Singapore is largely dependent on imports of food in general, not just rice. The country is currently in the midst of seeking exemptions from India’s ban.



Rice prices are currently hovering at decade highs, with El Nino putting further risks on global production in other major Asian rice producers such as Thailand, Pakistan and Vietnam.



Barclays pointed out that Philippines would be the “most exposed to a rise in global rice prices,” given how the weighting of rice is highest in the country’s CPI basket. However, a large bulk of the Southeast Asian nation’s rice imports comes from Vietnam.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-other-affected-regions"><a></a>Other affected regions</h2>



Asia is not the only region hit by India’s rice export ban, many African and Middle East nations are also vulnerable.



The markets highly exposed to India’s export restrictions are concentrated in Sub-Saharan Africa and in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, said BMI, a Fitch Solutions research unit. The firm cited Djibouti, Liberia, Qatar, the Gambia, and Kuwait as being the “most exposed.”&nbsp;



India’s withdrawal of non-basmati white rice, comes on the heels of last September’s ban on shipments of broken rice. That means up to 40% of India’s rice exports are now offline, according to BMI forecasts.



This is not India’s first time imposing an export ban on non-basmati rice, but the impact this time could be more far-reaching than before.



In October 2007, India imposed a ban on non-basmati exports, only to temporarily lift the ban and impose it again in April 2008, sending prices almost 30% higher to stand at the record high of $22.43 per hundredweight (cwt). 



Prices tripled in the span of six months, according to an agricultural research company, the International Potato Center (CIP).&nbsp;



Samarendu Mohanty, Asian regional director at CIP, noted that India was not a major player in global exports of non-basmati rice back then, and the current ban has “a more far-reaching impact” than 16 years ago.



He added that the magnitude of the ban would depend on how other rice importers and exporters react.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a></a>‘Possible mayhem’ in markets?</h2>



If major rice exporters like Vietnam and Cambodia impose their own form of export restrictions, and significant importers like Indonesia and Malaysia scramble to stockpile, the world will be looking at “possible mayhem in the rice market,” Mohanty said.



He cautioned that it could even be worse than the aftermath in 2007.



“The scale of people impacted by Indian rice ban will be in millions,” said Mohanty, adding that poorer consumers in India’s neighbors, particularly Bangladesh and Nepal will be the hardest hit.



“There is very low probability of this export ban being lifted,” Mohanty said, adding that the ban is here to stay at least until India’s general elections in April next year.



The South Asian nation is currently wrestling with high vegetable, fruit and grain prices, a sticking issue which could hurt the election prospects of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.



India’s inflation rose to 4.8% in June on the back of soaring food prices — still within the central bank’s&nbsp;inflation target of between 2% and 6%.



However, inflation “threatens to come in at 6.5% in July,” HSBC estimated in a report dated July 24.



HSBC economists cautioned that extreme weather events could further put a strain on crop output.



“If shipments fall, there could be global price implications, spilling over into wheat, which is a part-substitute,” the bank noted. The economists said cereal prices are already rising both domestically and globally, with the latter also affected by the Black Sea grain deal.



Wheat prices jumped after Russia withdrew from the Black Sea grain deal.



Under the agreement, Moscow agreed to allow Ukraine to continue to export grain in a bid to prevent a global food crisis following the war on Ukraine.



But the Kremlin pulled out of the deal in July, claiming promises made to Russia under the deal were not met.

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<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="530" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/CPGTGVFEYZOJPAXFO34IYEOB6E-820x530.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-426503" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/CPGTGVFEYZOJPAXFO34IYEOB6E-820x530.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/CPGTGVFEYZOJPAXFO34IYEOB6E-300x194.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/CPGTGVFEYZOJPAXFO34IYEOB6E-139x90.jpg 139w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/CPGTGVFEYZOJPAXFO34IYEOB6E-768x497.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/CPGTGVFEYZOJPAXFO34IYEOB6E-1536x993.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/CPGTGVFEYZOJPAXFO34IYEOB6E-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Demonstrators gather in support of the putschist soldiers in the capita Niamey, Niger July 30, 2023. Signs read &#8220;long live CNSP&#8221;, &#8220;down with France, ECOWAS&#8221;. REUTERS/Balima Boureima NO RESALES. NO ARCHIVES</figcaption></figure>



West African nations imposed sanctions and threatened force on Sunday if&nbsp;Niger’s coup leaders fail to reinstate ousted President Mohammed Bazoum within a week, while supporters of the junta attacked the French embassy in Niamey.



The 15-nation ECOWAS bloc’s response to the Sahel region’s seventh coup of recent years came as crowds in Niger’s capital Niamey burned French flags and stoned the former colonial power’s mission, drawing tear gas from police.



Images showed fires at the embassy walls and people being loaded into ambulances with bloodied legs.



At an emergency summit in&nbsp;Nigeria to discuss last week’s coup, leaders of the Economic Community of West African States called for constitutional order to be restored, warning of reprisals if not.



“Such measures may include the use of force,” their communique said, adding that defence officials would meet immediately to that effect.



Chad’s President Mahamat Idriss Deby, who came to power in 2021 after a coup, met his&nbsp;Nigerian counterpart Bola Tinubu on the sidelines of the summit and volunteered to speak to the military leaders in&nbsp;Niger, two presidential aides told Reuters, asking not to be identified.



Niger’s state TV showed Deby arriving and meeting them.



ECOWAS and the eight-member West African Economic and Monetary Union said that with immediate effect borders with Niger would be closed, commercial flights banned, financial transactions halted, national assets frozen and aid ended.



Military officials involved in the coup would be banned from travelling and have their assets frozen, it added.



Niger’s prime minister under Bazoum’s government, Ouhoumoudou Mahamadou, said ECOWAS sanctions would be disastrous because the country relies heavily on international partners to cover its budgetary needs.



“I know the fragility of Niger, I know the economic and financial context of Niger having been the finance minister and now prime minister,” Mahamadou, who was abroad when the coup occurred, told France24 television from Paris.



“This is a country that will not be able to resist these kinds of sanctions. It will be catastrophic.”



U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken welcomed ECOWAS’s action on Sunday.



“We join ECOWAS and regional leaders in calling for the immediate release of President Mohamed Bazoum and his family and the restoration of all state functions to the legitimate, democratically-elected government,” said Blinken in a statement.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-can-sanctions-work"><a></a>Can sanctions work?</h2>



Similar sanctions were imposed by ECOWAS on Mali, Burkina Faso and Guinea following coups in those countries in the past three years.



Although the financial sanctions led to defaults on debt — in Mali in particular — such measures have tended to hurt civilians more than the military leaders who seized power in some of the world’s poorest countries, political analysts say. Timelines to restore civilian rule have been agreed in all three countries, but there has been little progress implementing them.



The military coup in&nbsp;Niger, which began unfolding on Wednesday, has been widely condemned by neighbours and international partners including the United States, the United Nations, the African Union, the European Union and former colonial power France.



They have all refused to recognise the new leaders led by General Abdourahamane Tiani.



Niger has been a key ally in Western campaigns against insurgents linked to al Qaeda and Islamic State in the Sahel, and there are concerns that the coup could open the door to greater Russian influence there. Thousands of French troops were forced to withdraw from neighbouring Mali and Burkina Faso following coups there.



Niger&nbsp;is one of the poorest countries in the world, receiving close to $2 billion a year in official development assistance, according to the World Bank.



The United States, France, Italy and Germany have troops there on military training and missions to fight Islamist insurgents. Niger is also the world’s seventh-biggest producer of uranium, the radioactive metal widely used for nuclear energy and in nuclear weapons, as well as for treating cancer.



Ahead of the summit,&nbsp;Niger’s junta had warned that ECOWAS was considering an imminent military intervention in collaboration with other African and some Western nations.



“We want to once more remind ECOWAS or any other adventurer, of our firm determination to defend our homeland,” junta spokesperson Colonel Amadou Abdramane said.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-coup-era-must-stop"><a></a>‘Coup era must stop’</h2>



At their invitation, thousands of people rallied in the capital on Sunday,&nbsp;some heading to France’s embassy.



“We are here to express our discontent against France’s interference in&nbsp;Niger’s affairs.&nbsp;Niger&nbsp;is an independent and sovereign country, so France’s decisions have no influence on us,” said protester Sani Idrissa.



Similar to events in neighbouring Burkina Faso in September last year following a coup, some protesters tried to climb the embassy walls, while others stomped on burning French flags.



They were dispersed by&nbsp;Niger&nbsp;national guard.



France condemned the violence and said anyone attacking its nationals or interests would face a swift and stern response.



“The era of coups d’etat in Africa must stop. They are not acceptable,” French foreign minister Catherine Colonna Catherine Colonna told RTL radio, adding that the situation had calmed by the afternoon and no evacuation of French citizens was planned.



The European Union and France have cut off financial support to&nbsp;Niger&nbsp;and the United States has threatened to do the same.



Sunday’s ECOWAS communique thanked nations in line with the bloc’s stance but “condemned the pronouncement of support by foreign governments and foreign private military contractors.”



Russia’s Wagner mercenary boss Yevgeny Prigozhin, who remains active despite leading a failed mutiny against the Russian army’s top brass last month, has hailed the coup as good news and offered his fighters’ services to bring order.

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WASHINGTON – The Federal Reserve on Wednesday approved a much-anticipated interest rate hike that takes benchmark borrowing costs to their highest level in more than 22 years.



In a move that financial markets had completely priced in, the central bank’s Federal Open Market Committee raised its funds rate by a quarter percentage point to a target range of 5.25%-5.5%. The midpoint of that target range would be the highest level for the benchmark rate since early 2001.



Markets were watching for signs that the hike could be the last before Fed officials take a break to watch how the previous increases are impacting economic conditions. While policymakers indicated at the June meeting that two rate rises are coming this year, markets have been pricing in a better-than-even chance that there won’t be any more moves this year.



During a news conference, Chairman Jerome Powell said inflation has moderated somewhat since the middle of last year, but hitting the Fed’s 2% target “has a long way to go.” Still, he seemed to leave room to potentially hold rates steady at the Fed’s next meeting in September.



“I would say it’s certainly possible that we will raise funds again at the September meeting if the data warranted,” said Powell. “And I would also say it’s possible that we would choose to hold steady and we’re going to be making careful assessments, as I said, meeting by meeting.”



Powell said the FOMC will be assessing “the totality of the incoming data” as well as the implications for economic activity and inflation.



Markets initially bounced following the meeting but ended mixed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average continued its streak of higher closings, rising by 82 points, but the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite were little changed. Treasury yields moved lower.



“It is time for the Fed to give the economy time to absorb the impact of past rate hikes,” said Joe Brusuelas, U.S. chief economist at RSM. “With the Fed’s latest rate increase of 25 basis points now in the books, we think that improvement in the underlying pace of inflation, cooler job creation and modest growth are creating the conditions where the Fed can effectively end its rate hike campaign.”



The post-meeting statement, though, offered only a vague reference to what will guide the FOMC’s future moves.



“The Committee will continue to assess additional information and its implications for monetary policy,” the statement said in a line that was tweaked from the previous months’ communication. That echoes a data-dependent approach – as opposed to a set schedule – that virtually all central bank officials have embraced in recent public statements.



&nbsp;The hike received unanimous approval from voting committee members.



&nbsp;The only other change of note in the statement was an upgrade of economic growth to “moderate” from “modest” at the June meeting despite expectations for at least a mild recession ahead. The statement again described inflation as “elevated” and job gains as “robust.”



The increase is the 11th time the FOMC has raised rates in a tightening process that began in March 2022. The committee decided to skip the June meeting as it assessed the impact that the hikes have had.



Since then, Powell has said he still thinks inflation is too high, and in late June said he expected more “restriction” on monetary policy, a term that implies more rate increases.



The fed funds rate sets what banks charge each other for overnight lending. But it feeds through to many forms of consumer debt such as mortgages, credit cards, and auto and personal loans.



The Fed has not been this aggressive with rate hikes since the early 1980s, when it also was battling extraordinarily high inflation and a sputtering economy.



News lately on the inflation front has been encouraging. The consumer price index rose 3% on a 12-month basis in June, after running at a 9.1% rate a year ago. Consumers also are getting more optimistic about where prices are headed, with the latest University of Michigan sentiment survey pointing to an outlook for a 3.4% pace in the coming year.



However, CPI is running at a 4.8% rate when excluding food and energy. Moreover, the Cleveland Fed’s CPI tracker is indicating a 3.4% annual headline rate and 4.9% core rate in July. The Fed’s preferred measure, the personal consumption expenditures price index, rose 3.8% on headline and 4.6% on core for May.



All of those figures, while well below the worst levels of the current cycle, are running above the Fed’s 2% target.



Economic growth has been surprisingly resilient despite the rate hikes.



Second-quarter GDP growth is tracking at a 2.4% annualized rate, according to the Atlanta Fed. Many economists are still expecting a recession over the next 12 months, but those predictions so far have proved at least premature. GDP rose 2% in the first quarter following a large upward revision to initial estimates.



Employment also has held up remarkably well. Nonfarm payrolls have expanded by nearly 1.7 million in 2023, and the unemployment rate in June was a relatively benign 3.6% – the same level as a year ago.



“It has been my view consistently, that &#8230; we will be able to achieve inflation moving back down to our target without the kind of really significant downturn that results in high levels of job losses,” Powell said.



Along with the rate hike, the committee indicated it will continue to cut the bond holdings on its balance sheet, which peaked at $9 trillion before the Fed began its quantitative tightening efforts.&nbsp;The balance sheet is now at $8.32 trillion as the Fed has allowed up to $95 billion a month in maturing bond proceeds to roll off.

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