The End Of Free Money At The Federal Reserve

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/107260269-1687366990532-gettyimages-1500357905-wm_10827_pqptjyk0-820x547.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-426424" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/107260269-1687366990532-gettyimages-1500357905-wm_10827_pqptjyk0-820x547.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/107260269-1687366990532-gettyimages-1500357905-wm_10827_pqptjyk0-300x200.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/107260269-1687366990532-gettyimages-1500357905-wm_10827_pqptjyk0-135x90.jpeg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/107260269-1687366990532-gettyimages-1500357905-wm_10827_pqptjyk0-768x512.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/107260269-1687366990532-gettyimages-1500357905-wm_10827_pqptjyk0-1536x1024.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/107260269-1687366990532-gettyimages-1500357905-wm_10827_pqptjyk0-scaled.jpeg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">WASHINGTON, DC &#8211; JUNE 21: Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testifies before the House Committee on Financial Services June 21, 2023 in Washington, D.C. Powell testified on the Federal Reserve’s Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report during the hearing. Win Mcnamee | Getty Images News | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



Despite an improving inflation picture, the Federal Reserve is expected on Wednesday to approve what would be the 11th interest rate increase since March 2022.



Investors are hoping it will be the last one for a long time.



Markets are pricing in an absolute certainty that the Fed will approve a quarter percentage point hike that will take its benchmark borrowing rate to a target range of 5.25%-5.5%. That would push the upper boundary of the federal funds rate to its highest level since January 2001.



The more pressing matter will be whether Federal Open Market Committee officials feel they’ve gone far enough or if there’s still more work to do in the fight against pernicious inflation.



“The signal will probably be, yes, we’re hiking, but then we think we can sit here for a while and see,” said Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at Charles Schwab. “But no promises. They can’t give up the option.”



Indeed, the Fed’s course is far less certain. Central bank policymakers almost unanimously believe inflation is too high, but hiking more from here carries risks to an economy that many think is heading for at least a mild recession.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-the-fed-should-be-done"><a></a>‘The Fed should be done’</h2>



Jones is part of a growing market chorus that thinks the central bank has gone far enough. With the annual inflation rate declining to 3% in June — it was 9.1% a year ago — the danger is growing that the Fed could unnecessarily push the economy into contraction.



“The Fed should be done already,” Jones said. “They’re walking a difficult line here. To me, the decision would be, hey, we’ve done enough for now, and we can wait and see. But apparently the folks at the Fed think they need one more at least.”



In fact, Fed officials indicated strongly at their last meeting — the first one during this tightening cycle that didn’t see a rate increase — that they see at least two more hikes this year.



Since that meeting, policymakers have done little to dispel the likelihood of higher rates.



Markets, though, haven’t seemed to mind. Wall Street has been on a tear all year, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumping more than 5% over the past month alone. That could be because traders are ignoring the Fed’s rhetoric and pricing in just a 35% probability of another hike before the end of the year, according to CME Group’s FedWatch gauge of futures market pricing.



One key from the meeting will be whether Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicates that, at the least, the FOMC will again skip a hike at its next meeting in September while it analyzes the impact the previous increases have had on the economy. Powell has said the Fed is not locked in to an every-other-meeting pattern of hikes, but he has indicated that a slower pace of hikes is likely.



“The hike that’s going to happen [Wednesday] is unnecessary, and probably the last couple were unnecessary,” said Luke Tilley, chief economist at Wilmington Trust Investment Advisors. “By the time we get to November, that’ll be even clearer.”



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a></a>Repeating history</h2>



Fed policy, though, has been informed by a belief that when it comes to fighting inflation, it’s better to do too much than too little. The current bout of price increases was the most severe the U.S., and many other developed nations, has had to face since the early 1980s.



That last period also is behind a lot of the Fed thinking, with a particular focus on how policymakers then backed off the inflation fight too soon and ended up having an even worse problem.



“It’s easy for me to say that I think they’re going too much,” Tilley said. “But I’m also quick to say that if I was in their seats, I might be doing the same thing, because they really are playing a game of risk management.”



That game is familiar by now: Retreating from the inflation fight soon could lead to a repeat of the 1970s-early 1980s stagflation of high prices and weak growth, while going too far risks tipping the country into a recession.



Recent indicators are showing that credit conditions are tightening significantly, with higher interest rates and tougher lending standards substantial headwinds to future growth.



“Recently softer core inflation will be welcomed by Powell, but he is likely to want several more months of softer inflation data before confidently terminating the hiking cycle,” Citigroup economist Andrew Hollenhorst said in a client note. “In our view the U.S. economy is not headed toward a soft landing. After a summer of projected softer core inflation data, we see upside inflation risks reemerging in the fall.”



Likewise, Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at Globaldata.TSLombard, said a “dovish hike and talk of soft landings” at Wednesday’s meeting would be a mistake for the Fed.



“Planes land, economies do not. Economies are an ongoing dynamic process, and no recession will prove more problematic for the Fed than not,” Blitz wrote. “The economy is heading into recession, but if it is somehow avoided, then the disinflation of this moment will prove fleeting, so too the Fed’s confidence that they are at the end of this hiking cycle.”

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<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="462" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/107275471-1690202479067-gettyimages-1550554804-RAFAPRESS_23072023-07636-820x462.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-426384" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/107275471-1690202479067-gettyimages-1550554804-RAFAPRESS_23072023-07636-820x462.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/107275471-1690202479067-gettyimages-1550554804-RAFAPRESS_23072023-07636-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/107275471-1690202479067-gettyimages-1550554804-RAFAPRESS_23072023-07636-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/107275471-1690202479067-gettyimages-1550554804-RAFAPRESS_23072023-07636-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/107275471-1690202479067-gettyimages-1550554804-RAFAPRESS_23072023-07636.jpeg 929w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Elon Musk announced that there will be a rebranding of Twitter soon, and speculation points to the implementation of X. Rafael Henrique | Lightrocket | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



Elon Musk has long been enamored of the letter X.



Now, he’s killing off the Twitter brand and the iconic blue bird in favor of X as part of an effort to turn his $44 billion acquisition into something that’s genuinely his.



Musk’s vision for X is something akin to China’s WeChat, a super app that people can use for entertainment and buying goods and services online, in addition to posting updates and messaging their friends. But the rebrand comes after months of erratic behavior by the world’s richest person turned off users and pushed away advertisers, leaving Twitter in a troubled financial position and increasingly vulnerable to competition.



Killing an iconic internet brand is “extremely risky” at a time when rival apps such as the new Instagram Threads and smaller upstarts such as Bluesky are luring users, said Mike Proulx, an analyst at Forrester.



Musk has “singlehandedly wiped out over fifteen years of a brand name that has secured its place in our cultural lexicon,” Proulx said in an email.



A company spokesperson didn’t provide a comment for this story.



It’s not entirely a surprising move. Musk had already converted Twitter’s corporate name to X Corp, which itself is a subsidiary of X Holding Corp, as revealed in an April court filing. Musk said last October, just prior to buying Twitter, that he viewed the $44 billion deal as “an accelerant to creating X, the everything app.”



The letter X features prominently in the name of Musk’s rocket company, SpaceX. And over two decades ago, X.com was the name of Musk’s payments company that eventually became PayPal through a merger with a rival at the time.



Name changes have become fairly commonplace among storied web companies. Facebook became Meta in late 2021, and Google adopted the Alphabet moniker six years earlier. However, in those cases the newly named parent companies kept the branding of their core services, so Facebook users and Google searchers could keep doing their thing without disruption.



Musk appears to be betting he can get rid of Twitter altogether. Over the weekend, he introduced the new X logo and said in a tweet that “soon we shall bid adieu to the twitter brand and, gradually, all the birds.”



Linda Yaccarino, who Musk hired as CEO in May, said in an email to employees Monday that the company will “continue to delight our entire community with new experiences in audio, video, messaging, payments, banking – creating a global marketplace for ideas, goods, services, and opportunities.”



Succeeding in that mission is easier said than done.



Musk’s desire to turn X into a super app requires “time, money and people,” which Twitter “no longer has,” said Proulx. Earlier this month, Musk said that Twitter has suffered a 50% drop in advertising revenue and that it needs “to reach positive cash flow before we have the luxury of anything else.”  



Some advertisers had grown concerned about promoting their products on Twitter because of reports showing a rise of hate speech and racist and offensive comments on the platform as documented by multiple civil rights groups and researchers.



Musk has tried to offset some decline in advertising with a premium subscription service. But at $8 a month, the company would need tens of millions of subscribers to make up for the losses.



Those advertisers remaining on the platform now have to adopt a new lingo. People and businesses around the world know Twitter messages as “tweets.” Like Kleenex, Twitter was able to develop a recognizable brand that was instantly familiar with consumers, a feat that any corporate marketing team would celebrate.



Ralph Schackart, an analyst at William Blair, told CNBC last week that his team of analysts “didn’t pick anything up” from advertisers they polled as part of a recent survey on the digital advertising market that would indicate that these businesses had upped their spending on Twitter. Meanwhile, there are signs that the overall digital ad market could be improving, according to the William Blair survey.



Insider Intelligence analyst Jasmine Enberg said in an emailed statement that the name change marks “a gloomy day for many Twitter users and advertisers” and a “clear signal that the Twitter of the past 17 years is gone and not coming back.”



“Twitter’s rebrand is a reminder that Elon Musk, not Threads or any other app, is and has always been the most likely ‘Twitter killer,’” Enberg wrote.

107275471-1690202479067-gettyimages-1550554804-RAFAPRESS_23072023-07636

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<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="549" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/107275183-1690003700866-gettyimages-51643968-51613615CF012_oil-820x549.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-426355" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/107275183-1690003700866-gettyimages-51643968-51613615CF012_oil-820x549.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/107275183-1690003700866-gettyimages-51643968-51613615CF012_oil-300x201.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/107275183-1690003700866-gettyimages-51643968-51613615CF012_oil-134x90.jpeg 134w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/107275183-1690003700866-gettyimages-51643968-51613615CF012_oil-768x515.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/107275183-1690003700866-gettyimages-51643968-51613615CF012_oil-1536x1029.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/107275183-1690003700866-gettyimages-51643968-51613615CF012_oil-scaled.jpeg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Oil prices are expected to increase in the second half of 2023, according to the International Energy Forum. Christopher Furlong | Getty Images News | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



Oil prices are set to rise in the second half of the year as supply struggles to meet demand, according to the Secretary General of the International Energy Forum.&nbsp;



Oil demand bounced back to pre-Covid levels quickly, “but supply is having a tougher time in catching up,” said Joseph McMonigle, secretary general of the International Energy Forum, adding that the only factor moderating prices right now is the fear of a looming recession.&nbsp;



“So, for the second half of this year, we’re going to have serious problems with supply keeping up, and as a result, you’re going to see prices respond to that,” McMonigle told CNBC on the sidelines of a meeting of energy ministers from the group of the 20 leading industrial economies (G20) in Goa, India, on Saturday. 



McMonigle attributes the push in oil prices to increasing demand from China — the world’s largest importer of crude oil — and India.&nbsp;



“India and China combined will make up 2 million barrels a day of demand pick-up in the second half of this year,” the Secretary General said. 



Asked if oil prices could once again spike to $100 a barrel, he noted that prices are already at $80 per barrel and could potentially go higher from here.&nbsp;



“We’re going to see much more steep decreases in inventory, which will be a signal to the market that demand is definitely picking up. So you’re going to see prices respond to that,” McMonigle said.&nbsp;



However, McMonigle is confident that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies — collectively known as OPEC+ — will take action and increase supply, if the world eventually succumbs to a “big supply-demand imbalance.”



“They’re being very careful on demand. They want to see evidence that demand is picking up, and will be responsive to changes in the market.”&nbsp;



 Brent crude futures with September expiry last settled at $81.07 per barrel on the Friday close, while West Texas Intermediate crude with September delivery ended the trading day at $76.83. 



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-no-room-for-complacency"><a></a>No room for complacency&nbsp;</h2>



McMonigle also spoke about the liquified natural gas market, crediting the stability in Europe’s energy market to a warmer-than-expected winter in 2022.&nbsp;



“The weather was probably the luckiest thing to have happened,” he said, but warned that “it’s not just this winter, [but] the next couple of winters” that could be rocky.



Global policymakers cannot turn complacent just because LNG prices have fallen, and more investment in renewable energy is needed to ensure the lights continue to stay on, he said.



Once “whispered” about, energy security has now become the main focus of summits such as the G20, McMonigle signaled.



“We definitely have to keep pursuing the energy transition, and all options have to be on the table,” he highlighted, adding that prices and volatility in the energy markets has to be closely watched.&nbsp;



“I’m worried that if the public starts to connect high prices and volatility in energy markets to climate policies or the energy transition, we’re going to lose public support,” he said.&nbsp;



“We’re going to be asking the public to do a lot of difficult and challenging things in order to enable the energy transition. We need to keep them on board.”

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<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/leaving-job-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-426297" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/leaving-job-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/leaving-job-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/leaving-job-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/leaving-job-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/leaving-job.jpg 1024w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Photo: via Gettyimages</figcaption></figure>



Fears about artificial intelligence-powered technologies and tools taking over work currently done by humans have intensified since ChatGPT went viral late last year.



As it soared in popularity, the capabilities and potential of AI became increasingly clear and more well known among the public. Alongside this, a debate has erupted over how the tech might impact people’s careers.



And while experts say that AI will undoubtedly have an impact on jobs and at least partially automate them, they also point out that technological advancements often create new roles.



How concerned workers should really be is therefore still unclear. And technological developments like the growth of A.I. might not even be the biggest factor behind jobs disappearing in the future, according to a new HSBC report.



Using data from the World Economic Forum’s “Report on Jobs 2023,” HSBC notes that just four macroeconomic trends are expected to lead to the displacement of jobs.



The most common factor companies expect to lead to the loss of jobs is slower economic growth.



Indeed, just last month the World Bank said it expected the global economy to grow at a much slower rate than last year with 2.1% expected for 2023 compared to 3.1% last year.



“The challenges are clear – weaker economic growth and general shortages in supply or demand mean that many firms expect to operate with fewer workers,” analysts at HSBC said in the report.



“But it’s important to remember that not all changes in the economy are expected to mean fewer workers,” it added. Companies expect for example the green transition and use of Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) standards to lead to more jobs.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-tech-s-impact-on-jobs"><a></a>Tech’s impact on jobs</h2>



The “increased adoption of new technologies” is another pattern that companies expect to lead to job creation — and AI is part of this. A net share of over 20% of companies expect AI to add jobs rather than replace them, according to the World Economic Forum’s data.



Just two tech-related factors are expected to lead to roles becoming redundant: the emergence of both humanoid and non-humanoid robots.



“While AI gets most of the attention nowadays, it’s worth fully considering the impact that a wide range of technologies could have on the labour market,” HSBC said.



Especially when it comes to technology, the effect of new developments may also be broader than jobs simply being replaced.



“The question is whether we can have enough workers and the right skills of workers to fill these new needs,” HSBC added.



Alongside slower economic growth leading to the loss of jobs, HSBC identified supply shortages and rising costs for businesses, the rising cost of living for consumers and ongoing impacts of the coronavirus pandemic.



The findings come as inflation on both a consumer and wholesale level remains high in many countries around the world, despite some indication that pressures from rising prices may be easing. The most recent U.S. consumer and producer price index reports came in lower than expected, with the consumer price index hitting the lowest level since March 2021 on an annual basis in June — but issues persist.

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<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/107258355-16869313282023-06-16t150849z_1166429343_rc2fk1abt1fi_rtrmadp_0_france-tech-musk-820x547.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-426261" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/107258355-16869313282023-06-16t150849z_1166429343_rc2fk1abt1fi_rtrmadp_0_france-tech-musk-820x547.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/107258355-16869313282023-06-16t150849z_1166429343_rc2fk1abt1fi_rtrmadp_0_france-tech-musk-300x200.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/107258355-16869313282023-06-16t150849z_1166429343_rc2fk1abt1fi_rtrmadp_0_france-tech-musk-135x90.jpeg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/107258355-16869313282023-06-16t150849z_1166429343_rc2fk1abt1fi_rtrmadp_0_france-tech-musk-768x512.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/107258355-16869313282023-06-16t150849z_1166429343_rc2fk1abt1fi_rtrmadp_0_france-tech-musk-1536x1024.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/107258355-16869313282023-06-16t150849z_1166429343_rc2fk1abt1fi_rtrmadp_0_france-tech-musk-scaled.jpeg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Elon Musk, Chief Executive Officer of SpaceX and Tesla and owner of Twitter, gestures as he attends the Viva Technology conference dedicated to innovation and startups at the Porte de Versailles exhibition centre in Paris, France, June 16, 2023. Gonzalo Fuentes | Reuters</figcaption></figure>



Former Twitter employees in Ghana, who were laid off in November, have been left without severance pay and have not heard from the company for three months, sources told CNBC.



As part of new owner Elon Musk’s cost-cutting efforts, Twitter fired nearly all of the staff at its only office in Africa.



Following the announcement of the wave of global job cuts, Musk tweeted in November that “unfortunately there is no choice when the company is losing over $4M/day.”



“Everyone exited was offered 3 months of severance, which is 50% more than legally required,” he added, though it was unclear to which office and jurisdiction he was referring.



Under Ghanaian employment law, staff must be paid redundancy and should be granted three months’ notice before they are made redundant. Twitter’s workers in the capital Accra were given less than a month, according to the sources.



One former employee, who wished to remain anonymous due to sensitive nature of situation, told CNBC that the workers had several compensation requests rejected during the negotiations before they settled for an offer in the hope of drawing a line under the dispute.



“Twitter has dealt with us in bad faith since we were laid off in November 2022. There was no attempt to even negotiate a severance with us until international news started to report on this, and after we had approached the Labour Office in Ghana,” said another source, who also spoke to CNBC on condition of anonymity due to sensitive nature of situation.



“It’s been a tedious process and they rejected some of our requests, which we thought were fair given the circumstances and how we’ve been treated.”



Through their legal representative, the employees eventually reached out to accept what they saw as a watered down severance offer in May, but have endured radio silence from Twitter since then.



“We played ball and accepted the offer that they made just so we could move forward with our lives. However, they have completely ignored us since our lawyer reached out to theirs to accept the offer in May. For many of us, expenses owed have also not been paid,” the second source added.



Twitter&nbsp;responded to&nbsp;CNBC’s&nbsp;request for comment with an&nbsp;automated&nbsp;response.



The first source also told CNBC that “everyone is tired and frustrated.”



“This settlement is not even what was promised but we decided to just accept it and that has been a struggle,” they said.



“Some still haven’t gotten jobs yet, have families to feed and this severance will go a long way, so having it delayed in this [manner] is just so sad.”



Since Musk’s $44 billion acquisition of the social media platform in October, Twitter has lost nearly half of its advertising revenue and continues to generate negative cash flow, Musk said over the weekend, along with shouldering a substantial debt pile.



The company also faces competition from new Meta platform Threads, which registered over 100 million users in its first week in operation.



Scott Galloway, professor of marketing at New York University’s Stern Business School, wrote on Friday that Twitter last week “became MySpace: a social network void of innovation being slowly euthanized by Meta.”



“The decline in revenue is correlated to its reduction in workforce, but not caused by it,” Galloway added.

Twitter laid off most of its workers in Africa last year. They say they’ve been ignored and left without severance

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