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<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="461" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/108074907-1733992205729-gettyimages-2161859444-AFP_364E4TQ-820x461.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-565548" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/108074907-1733992205729-gettyimages-2161859444-AFP_364E4TQ-820x461.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/108074907-1733992205729-gettyimages-2161859444-AFP_364E4TQ-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/108074907-1733992205729-gettyimages-2161859444-AFP_364E4TQ-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/108074907-1733992205729-gettyimages-2161859444-AFP_364E4TQ-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/108074907-1733992205729-gettyimages-2161859444-AFP_364E4TQ-1536x864.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/108074907-1733992205729-gettyimages-2161859444-AFP_364E4TQ.jpeg 1600w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">A coffee cup with a printed message from Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele’s X account is pictured at Franco’s Pupusa restaurant in San Salvador on July 17, 2024. Marvin Recinos | Afp | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



A record-breaking rally for coffee prices shows no sign of slowing down, analysts say, with some warning it could take years for one of the world’s most traded commodities to recover.



Arabica coffee futures with March delivery hit a fresh intraday high of 348.35 cents per pound on Tuesday, notching their highest level in nearly 50 years. The contract has since cut some of its gains but remains up a whopping 70% year-to-date.



The last time the price for arabica beans, the world’s most popular variety, traded that high was in 1977 when snow destroyed large areas of Brazilian plantations.



Renowned for their smooth taste and sweet flavor, arabica beans make up between 60% to 70% of the global coffee market. They are commonly used in espressos and other barista-made coffee.



Drought and high temperatures, alongside a global reliance on supplies from relatively few regions, are regarded as the primary drivers for the recent price rise.



Robusta futures, meanwhile, also climbed to a fresh record high in late November. Robusta beans are known for their strong and bitter flavor and are typically used in instant blends.



The extraordinary price rally for coffee, which is considered the second-most traded commodity by volume, after crude oil, comes amid concerns over the 2025 crop in Brazil, by far the world’s largest producer.



“The country experienced its worst drought in 70 years during August and September, followed by heavy rains in October, raising fears that the flowering crop could fail,” Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Denmark’s Saxo Bank, said in a research note published Tuesday.



For some, the poor growing weather in Brazil means it could take a long time for coffee prices to unwind.



“History suggests that coffee prices will only ease back as and when supply improves and stocks are replenished,” David Oxley, chief climate and commodities economist at Capital Economics, said in a research note published on Nov. 29.



“Crucially, this is a process that can take years, not months,” Oxley said.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-coffee-particularly-vulnerable-to-bad-weather"><a></a>Coffee ‘particularly vulnerable’ to bad weather</h2>



A staple beverage for billions of people across the world, demand for coffee has been boosted in recent years by growing consumption in China. Production, however, has struggled to keep up.



“Like cocoa, coffee is grown in a relatively narrow tropical band, with key producers including Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia, and Ethiopia,” Saxo Bank’s Hansen said.



“This concentration makes it particularly vulnerable to adverse weather conditions, especially in Brazil and Vietnam, which together account for approximately 56% of global production,” he added.



The U.S. Department of Agriculture said in its semi-annual report last month that it expects Brazil’s coffee production for the marketing year 2024/2025 to come in at 66.4 million (60 kilogram per bag) comprising of 45.4 million bags of arabica and 21 million of robusta.



The USDA said its forecast reflected a 5.8% drop from its previous projection, attributing the decrease to irregular weather patterns that negatively affected crop development, particularly for arabica trees.



“In Brazil, this will be the fifth consecutive arabica harvest that is disappointing because of adverse weather,” Carlos Mera, head of agricultural commodities markets at Dutch lender Rabobank, told CNBC via video call.



Asked whether the climate crisis appears to be amplifying the risks for coffee production, Mera said it was difficult to measure accurately, but there are growing concerns across the industry that extreme weather could prevent typical growth in coffee trees.



Looking ahead, Mera said coffee prices “can certainly go even higher” from their current record levels.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a></a>Price increases for coffee drinkers?</h2>



For coffee drinkers, analysts say it is practically inevitable that coffee makers will need to pass on the costs to consumers in order to limit the impact of higher bean prices on their bottom line.



Nestlé, the world’s biggest coffee maker, which owns leading brands including Nescafé and Nespresso, said last month that it would continue raising prices and making packs smaller to offset the impact of higher prices.



“Like every manufacturer, we have seen significant increases in the cost of coffee, making it much more expensive to manufacture our products,” a Nestlé spokesperson told CNBC via email.



“As always, we continue to be more efficient and absorb increasing costs where possible whilst maintaining the same high quality and delicious taste that consumers know and love,” they added.



Italian coffee maker Lavazza and U.S. coffee giant Starbucks both declined to comment when contacted by CNBC.

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<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="461" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/108072174-1733432641152-gettyimages-2186442290-AFP_36ND9GA-820x461.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-564731" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/108072174-1733432641152-gettyimages-2186442290-AFP_36ND9GA-820x461.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/108072174-1733432641152-gettyimages-2186442290-AFP_36ND9GA-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/108072174-1733432641152-gettyimages-2186442290-AFP_36ND9GA-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/108072174-1733432641152-gettyimages-2186442290-AFP_36ND9GA-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/108072174-1733432641152-gettyimages-2186442290-AFP_36ND9GA-1536x864.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/108072174-1733432641152-gettyimages-2186442290-AFP_36ND9GA.jpeg 1858w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">A man shops at a Target store in Chicago on November 26, 2024. Kamil Krzaczynski | AFP | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



A key economic report coming Wednesday is expected to show that progress has stalled in bringing down the inflation rate, though not so much that the Federal Reserve won’t lower interest rates next week.



The consumer price index, a broad measure of goods and services costs across the U.S. economy, is expected to show a 2.7% 12-month inflation rate for November, which would mark a 0.1 percentage point acceleration from the previous month, according to the Dow Jones consensus.



Excluding food and energy, so-called core inflation is forecast at 3.3%, or unchanged from October. Both measures are projected to show 0.3% monthly increases.



With the Fed targeting annual inflation at 2%, the report will provide more evidence that the high cost of living remains very much a fact of life for U.S. households.



“Looking at these measures, there’s nothing in there that says the inflation dragon has been slain,” said Dan North, senior economist at Allianz Trade Americas. “Inflation is still here, and it doesn’t show any convincing moves towards 2%.”



Along with the read Wednesday on consumer prices, the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday will release its producer price index, a gauge of wholesale prices that is projected to show a 0.2% monthly gain.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-halting-progress-but-more-cuts"><a></a>Halting progress, but more cuts</h2>



To be sure, inflation has moved down considerably from its CPI cycle peak around 9% in June 2022. However, the cumulative impact of price increases has been a burden to consumers, particularly those at the lower end of the wage scale. Core CPI has been drifting higher since July after showing a steady series of declines.



Still, traders in futures markets are placing huge odds that policymakers again will cut their benchmark short-term borrowing rate by a quarter of a percentage point when the Federal Open Market Committee concludes its meeting Dec. 18. Odds of a cut were near 88% on Tuesday morning, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch measure.



“When the market is locked in like where it is today, the Fed doesn’t want to make a big surprise,” North said. “So unless something has skyrocketed that we haven’t foreseen, I’m pretty sure the Fed is on a lock here.”



The CPI increase for November likely came from a few key areas, according to Goldman Sachs.



Car prices are expected to show a 2% monthly increase, while air fares are seen as 1% higher, the firm’s economists projected in a note. In addition, the nettlesome increase in auto insurance is likely to continue, rising 0.5% in November after posting a 14% increase over the past year, Goldman estimated.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a></a>More trouble ahead</h2>



While the firm sees “further disinflation in the pipeline over the next year” from easing in the autos and housing rental categories, as well as softening in the labor markets, it also worries that President-elect Donald Trump’s planned tariffs could keep inflation elevated in 2025.



Goldman projects core CPI inflation will soften, but just to 2.7% next year, while the Fed’s target inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures price index, will move to 2.4% on the core reading from its most recent 2.8% level.



With inflation projected to run well above 2% and macro economic growth still running near 3%, this wouldn’t normally be an environment in which the Fed would be cutting. The Fed uses higher interest rates to curb demand, which theoretically would force businesses to lower prices.



Markets expect the Fed to skip the January meeting then possibly cut again in March. From there, market pricing is for only one or at most two cuts through the rest of 2025.



“Two percent to me doesn’t mean just touching 2% and bouncing along. It means hitting 2% for a continuous, foreseeable future, and none of that is evident in any of those reports,” North said. “You don’t really want to cut in that environment.”

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<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="461" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/107354835-1704471188107-gettyimages-1902360932-CZECH_CRYPTO-820x461.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-562379" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/107354835-1704471188107-gettyimages-1902360932-CZECH_CRYPTO-820x461.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/107354835-1704471188107-gettyimages-1902360932-CZECH_CRYPTO-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/107354835-1704471188107-gettyimages-1902360932-CZECH_CRYPTO-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/107354835-1704471188107-gettyimages-1902360932-CZECH_CRYPTO-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/107354835-1704471188107-gettyimages-1902360932-CZECH_CRYPTO-1536x864.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/107354835-1704471188107-gettyimages-1902360932-CZECH_CRYPTO.jpeg 1858w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">A neon sign indicates that Bitcoin is accepted inside the venue of the Paralelni Polis project, an organization combining art, social sciences and modern technology, in Prague, Czech Republic, on Friday, Jan. 5, 2024. Milan Jaros | Bloomberg | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



The price of bitcoin soared past the long-awaited $100,000 benchmark for the first time ever late Wednesday evening.



The flagship cryptocurrency was last higher by more than 4% at $103,544.00, according to Coin Metrics. Earlier, it rose as high as $103,844.05. Bitcoin is now up more than 140% in 2024 and 48% since the election.



The move came hours after President-elect Donald Trump announced plans to nominate Paul Atkins as chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission, fulfilling perhaps his most important campaign promise to the crypto industry: to replace Gary Gensler, who has become something of a villain in crypto for the agency’s regulation-by-enforcement approach to the industry under his leadership.



It’s a day of celebration for longtime bitcoin investors, who have held on for dear life, or “HODL’d” through several of the cryptocurrency’s boom and bust cycles, during which government and financial institutions remained dismissive — and even hostile — toward the asset class.



That’s largely because of the cryptocurrency’s anti-establishment roots. The original idea for Bitcoin was proposed at the height of the 2008 financial crisis: a “peer-to-peer version of electronic cash would allow online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution,” its founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, wrote in the Bitcoin Whitepaper.



In recent years, however, the industry has demonstrated the value of bitcoin to much of the institutional investing world. BlackRock, Fidelity, Invesco and others launched the first spot bitcoin ETFs at the beginning of this year — bitcoin’s “IPO” moment — and the growing demand for them by institutions has helped drive the price higher. In November, Rick Wurster, the incoming CEO of Charles Schwab, said the firm is preparing to enter spot crypto trading, pending regulatory changes expected in the next Trump administration.



On Wednesday, Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell said bitcoin is “just like gold only it’s virtual, it’s digital,” speaking at the DealBook conference. He further clarified that “people are not using it as a form of payment, or as a store of value” and that “it’s not a competitor for the dollar, it’s really a competitor for gold.”



“We’re witnessing a paradigm shift. After four years of political purgatory, bitcoin and the entire digital asset ecosystem are on the brink of entering the financial mainstream,” Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital, told CNBC.



Bitcoin had been widely expected to reach the landmark $100,000 level since the U.S. presidential election. However, excited investors sent bitcoin closer to this mark much sooner than initially anticipated; it rose as high as $99,849.99 on Nov. 22. There is much hope that President-elect Trump will deliver on several pro-crypto initiatives in the year ahead – including the establishment of a national strategic bitcoin reserve or stockpile, no taxes on crypto transactions and opening up the crypto public equity markets with more IPOs.



“Over the long term, I’m bullish,” Novogratz added. “It won’t be a straight line up, and investors should always consider taking gains off the table. But, with a pro-crypto administration about to take charge in the U.S., it’ll be hard for the rest of the world not to take notice.”

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Why Nile Rodgers and Sir Richard Branson are teaming up to empower young leaders

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