<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/ICSZXDHRHZMVNCNJGLBWY6KOGA-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-479979" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/ICSZXDHRHZMVNCNJGLBWY6KOGA-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/ICSZXDHRHZMVNCNJGLBWY6KOGA-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/ICSZXDHRHZMVNCNJGLBWY6KOGA-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/ICSZXDHRHZMVNCNJGLBWY6KOGA-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/ICSZXDHRHZMVNCNJGLBWY6KOGA-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/ICSZXDHRHZMVNCNJGLBWY6KOGA.jpg 1920w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: A vendor sells cassava flour at a traditional market in Bariga district, in Lagos, Nigeria January 15, 2021. Picture taken January 15, 2021. REUTERS/Temilade Adelaja/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



JOHANNESBURG, April 25 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Inflation in key African economies will slow into next year but remain stubbornly high in Nigeria due to sporadic flooding and difficult terrain for the naira currency, a Reuters poll found.



The acute shortage of dollars in much of the continent including Angola, Nigeria and Zambia has often put home inflation under significant strain due to a reliance on single commodity currency inflows such as crude oil and copper.



Still, the poll of 15 analysts taken in the past week showed inflation would moderate more in countries with better diversified sources of dollar revenues such as Kenya.



Inflation in Nigeria is expected to quicken to 29.1% this year from an average of 24.5% last year, before it slows to 17.2% next year. It hit a 28-year high of 33.2% in annual terms last month.



Nigeria central bank governor Olayemi Cardoso raised the monetary policy rate by 200 basis points to 24.75% last month after a 400 basis point hike in February.



Even with a more coherent monetary policy now in place, and potential naira stability, Nigerian inflation will only fall slowly this year, Citi wrote in a note to clients.



The high inflation rate reflects ongoing elevated food price inflation which accounts for around 50% of the CPI basket and is only marginally impacted by monetary policy, Citi added.



High food price inflation is a result of flooding seen in many parts of the country in recent years, the rising cost of fertilizer and continuing insecurity in many food-producing regions.



Ghana inflation averaged 40.3% last year, but is expected to slow markedly to 18.7% this year and then to 12.1% in 2025.



Angolan inflation is forecast to slow to last year&#8217;s average of 13.6% next year from 23.7% this year, while in Zambia it was seen slowing to 8.0% in 2025 from 12.3% this year.



Inflation in Kenya will remain one of the most-tamed in the region apart from South Africa, slowing to an average of 5.6% next year compared with 6.3% this year, the poll found.



Standard Chartered said it lowered its inflation forecasts last week to allow for recent Kenyan shilling appreciation and improved food prices.



A separate poll earlier this month predicted inflation in South Africa would slow to 4.6% next year from 5.1% this year.



(Reporting by Vuyani Ndaba, Editing by William Maclean)

FILE PHOTO: A vendor sells cassava flour at a traditional market in Bariga district, in Lagos

Inflation in key African economies to slow into next year

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="462" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/107266210-1688397617168-gettyimages-1508048254-_dsc5612-820x462.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-479264" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/107266210-1688397617168-gettyimages-1508048254-_dsc5612-820x462.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/107266210-1688397617168-gettyimages-1508048254-_dsc5612-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/107266210-1688397617168-gettyimages-1508048254-_dsc5612-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/107266210-1688397617168-gettyimages-1508048254-_dsc5612-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/107266210-1688397617168-gettyimages-1508048254-_dsc5612.jpeg 929w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">A food shopper searches for vegetables July 1, 2023 at the Hannaford supermarket in South Burlington, Vermont.  Robert Nickelsberg | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



Rising food prices around the world may finally be seeing a bottom this year.



According to Oxford Economics, global food prices are expected to decline in 2024, offering some relief for shoppers.



“Our baseline forecast is for world food commodity prices to register an annual decline this year, reducing pressure on food retail prices further downstream,” the economic advisory firm wrote in a recent note.



The key driving force behind the decline in food commodity prices is the “abundant supply” for many important crops, especially wheat and maize.



Bumper harvests in recent months for both staple crops led to a steady decline in prices. Wheat futures have fallen almost 10% year-to-date, while maize futures lost about 6% over the same period, according to FactSet data.



Farmers ramped up production of both wheat and corn grains following higher prices after Russia began its invasion of Ukraine in 2022.



As a result, global maize harvests for the marketing year ending August this year are likely to come in at record levels, according to Oxford’s analysis. Wheat harvests are also forecast to come in high, although slightly lower than the record level in marketing year 2022 to 2023, the Oxford report said.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-russia-ukraine-war"><a></a>Russia-Ukraine war</h2>



Supply pressures of grains in Russia and Ukraine have also eased.



Despite the collapse of the Black Sea Grain initiative in July last year, Ukrainian agricultural exports have been holding up well, Oxford Economics’ Lead Economist Kiran Ahmed wrote.



Russian wheat exports have also been flooding international markets, keeping prices low, he added.



Wheat and maize, along with rice, account for over half of global caloric intake. That means the direction of their prices will critically influence consumers’ food budgets around the world, the report pointed out.



Even though wheat and corn prices have seen a robust decline, rice prices have been steadily climbing, with global supplies hampered by export restrictions imposed by India, which accounts for around 40% of the world’s rice production. Poor harvests in the country last year also pushed prices higher. Contrary to the slump seen in wheat and maize prices, rough rice futures have gained over 8% year-to-date.



Global food prices registered a decline of 9% in 2023, according to the World Bank. Similarly, the United Nations food agency’s world price index hit a three-year low in February, but saw a slight rebound in March, lifted by increases for dairy products, meat and vegetable oils. 



“We expect prices to fall a further 5.6% this year before picking up on an annual basis next year,” said Ahmed.



That said, Oxford Economics noted that risks to its food price forecast are still “overwhelmingly skewed to the upside,” with adverse weather conditions on the cards.



Bad weather has been denting confidence of agribusinesses and crop outlooks, with cocoa recently soaring to record levels as West African farmers battle with inclement weather and disease. If poor weather conditions persist, harvest prospects could be impaired in other key crop growing regions, the note added.



“However, we think prices are now near a floor and will begin to rise gradually through [the second half of] 2024,” the report said.



Buyers in Africa and Asia have also held back from purchasing wheat on hopes of even lower prices — and their return to the market could drive a recovery in prices, Ahmed said. Additionally, rice prices, which remain high, could also encourage more export restrictions coming out of India.



“Thus, while our base case is for food prices to remain subdued this year, the risks are building that prices could rebound more sharply than anticipated. This could keep food price inflation higher than in our base case, maintaining pressure on the consumer,” he concluded.

107266210-1688397617168-gettyimages-1508048254-_dsc5612

High global food prices may finally see a bottom in 2024, says Oxford Economics

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/GettyImages-2147860031-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-478968" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/GettyImages-2147860031-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/GettyImages-2147860031-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/GettyImages-2147860031-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/GettyImages-2147860031-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/GettyImages-2147860031-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/GettyImages-2147860031-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">WASHINGTON DC, USA &#8211; APRIL 16: Financial Counsellor and Director of the Monetary and Capital Markets Department Tobias Adrian hold the press briefing of the Global Financial Stability Report at the International Monetary Fund during the 2024 Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group in Washington DC, United States on April 16, 2024. (Photo by Celal Gunes/Anadolu via Getty Images)</figcaption></figure>



WASHINGTON, April 20 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;The steering committee for both International Monetary Fund and the World Bank on Saturday emphasized the need for broader accountability as the institutions implemented reforms to help countries grapple with climate change and other shocks.



&#8220;We must hold ourselves accountable more broadly as we become a better and bigger bank,&#8221; said Mohammed bin Hadi Al Husseini, the United Arab Emirates&#8217; minister of state for finance, who heads the joint Development Committee this year.



Al Husseini issued a chair&#8217;s statement, rather than a communique, amid disagreements over wars in the Middle East and Ukraine, but referenced economic risks posed by the conflicts. The statement came as this week&#8217;s meetings of the IMF and World Bank drew to a close.



Governors of the institutions urged the World Bank to continue to bolster global and regional partnerships, and asked its management to push ahead with country engagement reforms and enhanced country diagnostics.



They also encouraged further collaboration between the World Bank and IMF to help countries mobilize more revenues at home, and on issues such as climate change and pandemic preparedness, as well as debt sustainability.



(Reporting by Andrea Shalal; editing by Diane Craft)

2024 Spring Meetings of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund

IMF, World Bank steering committee stresses accountability as reforms advance

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/UGBD2ZAOI5NQPCFYW7PX6JS46A-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-478146" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/UGBD2ZAOI5NQPCFYW7PX6JS46A-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/UGBD2ZAOI5NQPCFYW7PX6JS46A-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/UGBD2ZAOI5NQPCFYW7PX6JS46A-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/UGBD2ZAOI5NQPCFYW7PX6JS46A-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/UGBD2ZAOI5NQPCFYW7PX6JS46A-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/UGBD2ZAOI5NQPCFYW7PX6JS46A-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: Street vendors wait for customers at an open market, ahead of Nigeria&#8217;s Presidential election in Awka, Anambra state, Nigeria February 23, 2023. REUTERS/Temilade Adelaja/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



JOHANNESBURG/WASHINGTON, April 19 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Incomes in Sub-Saharan Africa are falling further behind the rest of the world amid a &#8220;tepid&#8221; economic recovery, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Friday, warning of risks from geopolitics, domestic instability and climate change.



The IMF earlier this week said the region&#8217;s economy would grow 3.8% this year, up from 3.4% in 2023, as it begins to emerge from four years of shocks, from the COVID-19 pandemic to Russia&#8217;s invasion of Ukraine and rising global interest rates.



&#8220;When accounting for population growth, the income gap with the rest of the world is widening,&#8221; the fund said in its biannual Regional Economic Outlook report, launched during its Spring Meetings this week in Washington.



It noted that other developing countries saw real income per person more than triple since 2000, while they grew 75% in Sub-Saharan Africa and 35% in developed countries.



However, there were some positive developments.



&#8220;Two-thirds of the countries are already experiencing acceleration in growth; diversified and fairly broad-based growth,&#8221; said Abebe Selassie, director of the IMF&#8217;s African Department, said in an interview with Reuters in Washington.



Many of the more diversified economies had already enjoyed some growth recovery since the pandemic, he added.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-inflation-falling">INFLATION FALLING</h2>



Economic conditions have started to ease for many countries this year, with Ivory Coast, Benin and Kenya issuing international bonds and median inflation falling to 6% in February from almost 10% a year earlier, the IMF said.



But political instability is rising and denting investor confidence, it said, pointing to junta-led states Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger leaving the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and 18 elections across the region this year.



Devastating droughts last year in the Horn of Africa and currently in southern Africa, as well as cyclones and floods, have also increased the region&#8217;s struggles.



South Africa is set to grow just 0.9% this year, a slight increase from 0.6% in 2023, amid ongoing rolling power cuts and problems with the country&#8217;s railways and ports, the IMF said, adding that &#8220;electoral uncertainties&#8221; could derail ongoing energy sector reforms.



Africa&#8217;s most industrialised economy holds an election on May 29, in which the ruling African National Congress (ANC) party could lose its majority for the first time since the end of apartheid in 1994.



West Africa&#8217;s largest economy, Nigeria, is set to grow 3.3% this year, as it struggles with high inflation amid painful currency and subsidy reforms.



In its northern neighbour Niger, meanwhile, growth is predicted to rocket from 1.4% last year to 10.4%, as oil exports ramp up.



(Reporting by Rachel Savage and Karin Strohecker, Additional reporting by Maxwell Akalaare Adombila, Editing by Alex Richardson)

FILE PHOTO: Street vendors wait for customers at an open market, ahead of Nigeria’s Presidential election in Awka

Sub-Saharan Africa incomes falling further behind rest of world, says IMF

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/ZO2TST2SFBIXRI7CA7KFKOUIUI-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-468010" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/ZO2TST2SFBIXRI7CA7KFKOUIUI-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/ZO2TST2SFBIXRI7CA7KFKOUIUI-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/ZO2TST2SFBIXRI7CA7KFKOUIUI-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/ZO2TST2SFBIXRI7CA7KFKOUIUI-768x513.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/ZO2TST2SFBIXRI7CA7KFKOUIUI-1536x1025.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/ZO2TST2SFBIXRI7CA7KFKOUIUI-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: Pump jacks operate at sunset in an oil field in Midland, Texas U.S. August 22, 2018. Picture taken August 22, 2018. REUTERS/Nick Oxford/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



Oil prices jumped more than 3% on Friday after Israel carried out a strike on Iran, triggering fears of an expanding war in the Middle East.



Israel carried out a limited military strike against Iran and is currently assessing the strike’s effectiveness and damage caused, a source familiar with the situation told NBC News. The operation was conducted in the early hours of Friday morning local time.



Both oil benchmarks pared gains after initially jumping over 3% on news of explosions in Iran. Global benchmark Brent traded 1.73% higher at $88.62 a barrel after topping $90 earlier, while the U.S. West Texas Intermediate rose 1.75% to $84.1 per barrel.



Safe haven assets also rose. Spot gold prices&nbsp;surged to a fresh all-time high of 2,411.09 per ounce, while the&nbsp;yen&nbsp;strengthened 0.45% to 153.93 against the U.S. dollar.



Iran’s Fars news agency reported that explosions were heard near the airport in Isfahan, and that flights to Tehran, Isfahan and Shiraz airports have been suspended. Flight tracking site Flight Radar 24 showed that multiple flights were diverted over Iranian airspace early Friday.



A Telegram channel affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said that there were no explosions on the ground in Isfahan and that the explosive sounds were caused by Iran’s defenses. The country’s armed forces also said that nuclear facilities in the Isfahan province were “in complete security.”



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-shadow-war-is-over"><a></a>‘Shadow war’ is over</h2>



Israel on Sunday vowed to “exact a price” from Iran in response to the weekend’s large-scale aerial assault on the Jewish state.



A day earlier, Iran struck military targets inside Israel, launching more than 300 missiles and drones, in retaliation for an Israeli strike on its embassy compound in Damascus, Syria.



“With Israel’s apparent strikes on Iran today, retaliating for Iran’s attack on Israel last Sunday, we now have a direct nation-on-nation hot war,” said Rapidan Energy’s Director of Global Oil Service, Clay Seigle.



“The ‘shadow war’ chapter has come to an end,” he added.



While Washington has pledged an “ironclad” commitment to Israel, President Joe Biden has also told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu the U.S. will not join any offensive operations against Iran, a senior administration official told NBC News.



“The U.S. should avoid further entrapment in Israel’s efforts to drag U.S. military forces into a broader war with Iran,” said Sarah Leah Whitson, executive director of Democracy for the Arab World Now, or Dawn.



Israel’s decision to attack Iran in spite of pleas from its primary backers is a “clear indicator of how irresponsible and unaccountable the Israeli government is,” she added.



Seigle maintained that’s it’s still too early to determine what could happen next.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a></a>Risks to markets</h2>



However, he pointed out that the “big risk” for oil markets in the expanding Middle East war is that oil exports from the Arabian Gulf will be cut off. The region is responsible for more than 20 million barrels of oil per day.



A disruption or closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint which sits between Iran and Oman and through which one-fifth of global oil production flows daily, would also cause oil prices to shoot higher.



“A Hormuz disruption would be very serious for the world economy, potentially driving oil prices well into the triple digits to levels that induce demand destruction,” he added.



Symbolically, the Jewish state’s attack on Iran is also “bigger than anything Israel has carried out in the past,” given how it is a direct strike against targets inside Iranian territory by the Israeli military, Eurasia Group said in a note. That being said, the political risk consultancy said such a response suggests the escalatory pressure will likely be contained — Iran has not acknowledged that a missile strike took place, blaming the explosions instead on air defense systems.



“The response from the Islamic Republic has been to downplay the attack, suggesting that the regime will feel little need to respond immediately,” said Eurasia Group.

FILE PHOTO: Pump jacks operate at sunset in an oil field in Midland

Oil jumps 3%, spot gold hits record high after Israel launches strike in Iran

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/GettyImages-2147886676-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-477848" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/GettyImages-2147886676-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/GettyImages-2147886676-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/GettyImages-2147886676-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/GettyImages-2147886676-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/GettyImages-2147886676-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/GettyImages-2147886676-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank spring meetings signage outside the IMF headquarters in Washington, DC, US, on Wednesday, April 17, 2024. The International Monetary Fund inched up its expectations for global economic growth this year, citing strength in the US and some emerging markets, while warning the outlook remains cautious amid persistent inflation and geopolitical risks. Photographer: Samuel Corum/Bloomberg via Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



LONDON, April 18 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Development agencies gathering in Washington this week face one of their toughest battles in years: getting a rich world worried about wars abroad and elections at home to commit more cash to the world&#8217;s poorest countries.



The poor world&#8217;s development is backsliding at an historic rate amid debt crises, higher-for-longer global interest rates and mounting investment needs. At the same time, it needs trillions more per year to meet climate spending goals alone.



At the last round of IMF and World Bank meetings in October, global leaders expected rich-world inflation to ease more quickly than it has, and thus for interest rate cuts to take pressure off financing costs.



Since then, an expanding conflict in the Middle East and the ongoing war in Ukraine have thrown up additional funding pressures, curbing the rich world&#8217;s already waning appetite to spend on development aid.



&#8220;Budgetary constraint in a number of countries is increasing,&#8221; Odile Renaud-Basso, president of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development told Reuters in London ahead of the meetings. &#8220;There is more expenditure for defense and there is tension about support for development aid.&#8221;



&#8220;The global situation is becoming increasingly challenging,&#8221; she added.



Renaud-Basso said lenders trying to raise funds, such as World Bank&#8217;s International Development Association (IDA), would provide a bellwether for the rich world&#8217;s appetite to donate.



The World Bank&#8217;s lending arm to poor countries is targeting record commitments above its last replenishment of $93 billion, which it used early due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the fallout from Russia&#8217;s invasion of Ukraine. It has begun issuing bonds to leverage its lending.



&#8220;We&#8217;ve been able to do more with the same level of donor contributions,&#8221; IDA director Dirk Reinermann told Reuters. &#8220;The problem is that this party is slowly coming to an end&#8230;the zero point where we are fully leveraged, it&#8217;s coming closer and closer.&#8221;



In its last replenishment, 52 high- and middle-income countries contributed, led by the United States, Japan, Germany, the United Kingdom and France.



But many of those are grappling with donor fatigue. France and the UK have made large cuts to overseas aid in recent years, while in the United States political battles ahead of the presidential election have stalled other foreign spending commitments, including to Israel and Ukraine.



According to a recent United Nations report, official development assistance globally hit a record in 2022, but the share of it going to developing countries fell by 2%.



&#8220;I don&#8217;t think the world has ever been in such a state,&#8221; said Vera Songwe, chair of the Liquidity and Sustainability Facility, a group that aims to lower debt costs for Africa.



Songwe herself worked on IDA&#8217;s replenishment round during her time at the World Bank, and described a whirlwind global tour to press finance ministers, parliamentarians and other officials for funding.



It is never an easy sell, she said. But this year is different.



&#8220;Even in 2008, China was still growing then. This is much more difficult.&#8221;



It amounts to a perfect storm for poor countries. In the decade after the global financial crisis, with record-low interest rates, money flowed freely and the external public debt stock in low and middle income rose to $9 trillion, from $5.6 trillion in 2012.



China during that time also opened its financial taps, lending billions via its Belt and Road Initiative. But amid simmering debt problems at home, it has since pulled back.



This has significantly narrowed the availability of affordable finance for developing countries.



&#8220;There are very few such pots of money with such low concessional rates the world over, especially pots of money that come from a multilateral lender that has certain checks and balances,&#8221; said Giulia Pellegrini, a senior portfolio manager for emerging market debt at Allianz Global Investors.



Getting money from IDA, or another multilateral lender such as EBRD, can spur private lenders and eurobond investors to open their wallets, she added.



&#8220;Seeing a strong vote of confidence from some of these multilateral bodies, giving them concessional finance is a way to say these countries are embarking on a positive reform,&#8221;&nbsp;she said.



Reinermann said IDA&#8217;s backing from the World Bank itself and other institutions is strong. But that would not, he said, make securing commitments easy.



&#8220;Fiscal situations are not flush anywhere,&#8221; he said. &#8220;Right now it looks like a real mountain to climb.&#8221;



(Reporting by Libby George and Karin Strohecker; editing by Christina Fincher)

Spring Meetings Of The International Monetary Fund And World Bank

Battle for development cash heats up at IMF/World Bank meetings

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/GettyImages-2147878080-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-477763" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/GettyImages-2147878080-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/GettyImages-2147878080-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/GettyImages-2147878080-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/GettyImages-2147878080-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/GettyImages-2147878080-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/GettyImages-2147878080-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Nicolas Mombrial, senior communications officer at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), from left, Vitor Gaspar, director of fiscal affairs at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Era Dabla-Norris, division chief of fiscal affairs at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro, deputy division chief of fiscal policy and surveillance at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), during a Fiscal Monitor news conference during the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank in Washington, DC, US, on Wednesday, April 17, 2024. The International Monetary Fund inched up its expectations for global economic growth this year, citing strength in the US and some emerging markets, while warning the outlook remains cautious amid persistent inflation and geopolitical risks. Photographer: Samuel Corum/Bloomberg via Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



The International Monetary Fund says South Africa needs to implement a debt ceiling as part of an overall strategy to contain increasing indebtedness in Africa’s largest economy.



South Africa public debt to gross domestic product ratio is projected to reach 86 percent by 2029 amid slow growth and continued bailouts of struggling state-owned enterprises such as power utility Eskom, logistics operator Transnet and airliner South African Airways. The national treasury says debt should peak at 75 percent of GDP by 2027 before declining, compared with 49 percent before the Covid-19 pandemic.



&#8220;South Africa has a good fiscal rule and complementing this with a debt ceiling could be useful in improving expenditure efficiency,&#8221; Era Dabla-Norris, the IMF’s Deputy Director for Fiscal Affairs told a news briefing at the release of its April 2024 Fiscal Monitor report. &#8220;We believe more decisive efforts are needed to cut spending and this can be done by reducing transfers to state-owned enterprises, rationalizing untargeted subs while protecting public investment and protecting well targeted social assistance for vulnerable populations.&#8221;



The country barely avoided a recession last year, posting growth of 0.6 percent, which the IMF forecasts could climb to 0.9 percent this year, before accelerating to 1.2 percent in 2025 as power supply improves, and the impact of economic reforms kicks in.



For sub-Saharan Africa the fund, sees sub-Saharan fiscal deficits declining to 4 percent this year versus 5.2 percent in 2023, and further improving to 2.7 percent by 2029. General debt to GDP ratios should decline to 44 percent by 2029 compared with 55 percent last year.



The fund is recommending that governments around the world avoid fiscal slippages and focus on rebuilding buffers in order to safeguard fiscal sustainability in the medium term. This as it forecast global public debt may top 100 percent of GDP by the end of the decade from 93 percent now.



&#8220;Fiscal consolidations are never easy but it is best not to wait until markets dictate their conditions. The right approach is to start now, gradually, and credibly. Once inflation is under control, credible multiyear consolidations will help pave the way for further monetary policy easing,&#8221; the report says.



This was especially pertinent this year as half of the world’s population goes to the polls to elect new governments.



&#8220;History shows governments tend to spend more and tax less during election years,&#8221; it said. &#8220;Deficits in election years tend to exceed forecasts by 0.4 percentage points of GDP, compared to non-election years. In this great election year, governments should exercise fiscal restraint to preserve sound public finances.&#8221;

IMF says South Africa needs a debt ceiling as public debt spirals

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/QOM6DFY4YFKBTJHWK36SCHU26U-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-424241" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/QOM6DFY4YFKBTJHWK36SCHU26U-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/QOM6DFY4YFKBTJHWK36SCHU26U-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/QOM6DFY4YFKBTJHWK36SCHU26U-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/QOM6DFY4YFKBTJHWK36SCHU26U-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/QOM6DFY4YFKBTJHWK36SCHU26U-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/QOM6DFY4YFKBTJHWK36SCHU26U-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) logo in Washington, United States, September 4, 2018. REUTERS/Yuri Gripas/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



LONDON, April 17 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;The International Monetary Fund&#8217;s Board has backed a key change to give it more freedom to support crisis-hit countries even if debt renegotiations with big creditor governments like China are still ongoing.



The proposal is to reform what the IMF calls its Lending Into Official Arrears (LIOA) policy, a framework that determines if and when it can lend to a country that owes money to another IMF-member nation.



In a statement late on Tuesday the Fund said its Executive Board had endorsed &#8220;reforms to promote the IMF&#8217;s capacity to support countries undertaking debt restructurings&#8221;.



A key change will be that it will be able to lend to a country where no debt agreement with one or more of its bilateral creditors has been reached if the Fund has been provided with &#8220;additional safeguards&#8221;.



Debt crisis veterans have been long been urging a change to the IMF&#8217;s approach having seen delays in agreements with the likes of China widely blamed for dragging out Zambia, Ethiopia and Sri Lanka&#8217;s defaults for years.



&#8220;Directors supported the addition of a fourth strand under which the Fund shall seek additional safeguards where an adequately representative agreement has not been reached through a representative standing forum,&#8221; the IMF said.



(Reporting by Marc Jones; editing by Philippa Fletcher)

FILE PHOTO: The IMF logo is seen outside the headquarters building in Washington

IMF Board backs key change to lending-into-official-arrears policy

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="461" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/107401739-1713271291754-gettyimages-519464988-000090539233_Unapproved-820x461.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-477152" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/107401739-1713271291754-gettyimages-519464988-000090539233_Unapproved-820x461.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/107401739-1713271291754-gettyimages-519464988-000090539233_Unapproved-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/107401739-1713271291754-gettyimages-519464988-000090539233_Unapproved-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/107401739-1713271291754-gettyimages-519464988-000090539233_Unapproved-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/107401739-1713271291754-gettyimages-519464988-000090539233_Unapproved-1536x864.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/107401739-1713271291754-gettyimages-519464988-000090539233_Unapproved.jpeg 1920w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Crowds walk below neon signs on Nanjing Road. The street is the main shopping district of the city and one of the world’s busiest shopping districts. Nikada | E+ | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday slightly raised its global growth forecast, saying the economy had proven “surprisingly resilient” despite inflationary pressures and monetary policy shifts.



The IMF now expects global growth of 3.2% in 2024, up by a modest 0.1 percentage point from its earlier January forecast, and in line with the growth projection for 2023. Growth is then expected to expand at the same pace of 3.2% in 2025.



The IMF’s chief economist, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, said the findings suggest the global economy is heading for a “soft landing,” following a string of economic crises, and that the risks to the outlook were now broadly balanced.



“Despite gloomy predictions, the global economy remains remarkably resilient, with steady growth and inflation slowing almost as quickly as it rose,” he said in a blog post.



Growth is set to be led by advanced economies, with the U.S. already exceeding its pre-Covid-19 pandemic trend and with the euro zone showing strong signs of recovery. But dimmer prospects in China and other large emerging market economies could weigh on global trade partners, the report said.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-china-among-key-downside-risks"><a></a>China among key downside risks</h2>



China, whose economy remains weakened by a downturn in its property market, was cited among a series of potential downside risks facing the global economy. Also included were price spikes prompted by geopolitical concerns, trade tensions, a divergence in disinflation paths among major economies and prolonged high interest rates.



To the upside, looser fiscal policy, falling inflation and advancements in artificial intelligence were cited as potential growth drivers.



Central banks are now being closely watched for a signal on the future path of inflation, with opinion diverging on either side of the Atlantic as to when the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank will cut rates. Some analysts have recently forecast a possible Fed rate hike as stubborn inflation and rising Middle East tensions weigh on economic sentiment.



The IMF said it sees global headline inflation falling from an annual average of 6.8% in 2023 to 5.9% in 2024 and 4.5% in 2025, with advanced economies returning to their inflation targets sooner than emerging market and developing economies.



“As the global economy approaches a soft landing, the near-term priority for central banks is to ensure that inflation touches down smoothly, by neither easing policies prematurely nor delaying too long and causing target undershoots,” Gourinchas said.



“At the same time, as central banks take a less restrictive stance, a renewed focus on implementing medium-term fiscal consolidation to rebuild room for budgetary maneuver and priority investments, and to ensure debt sustainability, is in order,” he added.



Despite the rosier outlook of Tuesday, global growth remains low by historic standards, owing in part to weak productivity growth and increasing geopolitical fragmentation. The IMF’s five-year forecast sees global growth at 3.1%, its lowest level in decades.

107401739-1713271291754-gettyimages-519464988-000090539233_Unapproved

IMF upgrades global growth forecast as economy proves ‘surprisingly resilient’ despite downside risks

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="461" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/107385958-1710210089452-gettyimages-1868370670-THAILAND_GOLD-820x461.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-477062" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/107385958-1710210089452-gettyimages-1868370670-THAILAND_GOLD-820x461.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/107385958-1710210089452-gettyimages-1868370670-THAILAND_GOLD-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/107385958-1710210089452-gettyimages-1868370670-THAILAND_GOLD-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/107385958-1710210089452-gettyimages-1868370670-THAILAND_GOLD-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/107385958-1710210089452-gettyimages-1868370670-THAILAND_GOLD-1536x864.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/107385958-1710210089452-gettyimages-1868370670-THAILAND_GOLD.jpeg 1920w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">An employee handles one kilogram gold bullions at the YLG Bullion International Co. headquarters in Bangkok, Thailand, on Friday, Dec. 22, 2023.  Chalinee Thirasupa | Bloomberg | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



Gold prices continued to hover near record highs days after Middle East tensions flared, boosting the safe-haven appeal of bullion.



Gold prices notched another record close Monday, with the most-active June contract for gold futures trading 0.37% higher to settle at $2,383 per ounce, and some say there’s more room to run.



“The recent gold rally has been aided by geopolitical heat and is coinciding with record equity index levels,” Citi wrote in a note dated April 15.



Demand for the safe-haven asset grew amid escalating tensions in the Middle East after Iran fired over 300 drones and missiles directly at Israel — most of which were intercepted, thanks to Israel’s Iron Dome air defense system.



Market watchers are closely monitoring a potential retaliation by the Jewish state, which has vowed to “exact a price” from Iran.



A significant retaliation could lead to a wider conflict, which would consequently trigger renewed buying of gold, as well as a rally in oil prices and strengthening of the U.S. dollar, said Bartosz Sawicki, market analyst at financial services firm Conotoxia fintech.



Gold, which retains its value as a hedge against inflation, tends to perform well in periods of economic uncertainty when investors move away from the riskier assets such as equities.



Bullion prices hit an all-time high of $2,448.80 per ounce intraday last Friday.



Spot gold prices have been on a tear since the start of the year, climbing over 15% year-to-date on the back of a cocktail of factors including a global central bank splurge, geopolitical tensions and expectations of rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve. 



Gold prices usually have an inverse relationship with interest rates. As interest rates fall, gold becomes more appealing compared with fixed income assets such as bonds, which would yield weaker returns.



Hotter-than-expected inflation in March pushed back market expectations of a rate cut to September, and the expectation is now for two rate reductions instead of three.



n spite of that, analysts remain bullish on the yellow metal’s outlook, boosted by continued physical demand as well as its appeal as a geopolitical hedge.&nbsp;



“We project $3,000/oz gold over the next 6-18m,” said Citi’s analysts led by Aakash Doshi, Citi’s North America head of commodities research. The financial gold “price floor” has also moved higher from around $1,000 to $2,000 per ounce, Citi said.



On Friday, Goldman Sachs referred to the gold market as an “unshakeable bull market” and revised upward its price target for the yellow metal from $2,300 per ounce to $2,700 by the end of the year.



— CNBC’s Gina Francolla contributed to this report.

107385958-1710210089452-gettyimages-1868370670-THAILAND_GOLD

Gold is shining ‘bright like a diamond’ and could hit $3,000, says Citi

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/GettyImages-1243546489-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-476778" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/GettyImages-1243546489-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/GettyImages-1243546489-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/GettyImages-1243546489-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/GettyImages-1243546489-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/GettyImages-1243546489-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/GettyImages-1243546489-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">The World Bank Group headquarters in Washington, DC, US, on Tuesday, Sept. 27, 2022. World Bank President Malpass said he hasn&#8217;t considered resigning and isn&#8217;t under pressure from member countries to do so, after critics slammed him for dodging questions on whether he accepted the scientific consensus that the burning of fossil fuels is driving global warming. Photographer: Samuel Corum/Bloomberg via Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



WASHINGTON, April 15 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Half of the world&#8217;s 75 poorest countries are experiencing a widening income gap with the wealthiest economies for the first time this century in a historical reversal of development, the World Bank said in a report on Monday.



The differential between per capita income growth in the poorest countries and the richest has widened over the past five years, according to the report.



&#8220;For the first time, we see there is no convergence. They&#8217;re getting poorer,&#8221; Ayhan Kose, deputy chief economist for the World Bank and one of the report&#8217;s authors, told Reuters.



&#8220;We see a very serious structural regression, a reversal in the world &#8230; that&#8217;s why we are ringing the alarm bells here,&#8221; he said.



The report said the 75 countries eligible for grants and zero-interest loans from the World Bank&#8217;s International Development Association (IDA) risk a lost decade of development without ambitious policy shifts and significant international aid.



Kose said growth in many IDA countries had already begun to taper off in these countries before the COVID-19 pandemic, but it would be just 3.4% in 2020-2024, the weakest half-decade of growth since the early 1990s. Russia&#8217;s invasion of Ukraine, climate change, increases in violence and conflict also weighed heavily on their prospects.



More than half of all IDA countries are in Sub-Saharan Africa; 14 are in East Asia and eight are in Latin America and the Caribbean. Thirty-one have per capita incomes of less than $1,315 a year. They include the Democratic Republic of Congo, Afghanistan and Haiti.



One in three IDA countries is poorer now than on the eve of the pandemic. IDA countries account for 92% of the world&#8217;s people who lack access to a sufficient quantity of affordable, nutritious food. Half of the countries are in debt distress, meaning they are unable to service debt or are at high risk of not being able to.



And despite their young populations &#8211; a demographic boon at a time when populations were aging nearly everywhere else, rich natural resources and abundant solar-energy potential, private and government creditors had been backing away from them.



U.S. Treasury Undersecretary Jay Shambaugh raised concerns about the worsening situation last week, warning China and other emerging official creditors against free-riding by curtailing loans to low-income countries just as the IMF or multilateral development banks were pouring funds in.



Almost 40 countries saw external public debt outflows in 2022, and the flows likely worsened in 2023, he said.



Kose said ambitious policies were needed to accelerate investment, including domestic efforts to strengthen fiscal, monetary and financial policies, and structural reforms to improve education and increase domestic revenues.



Significant financial support from the global community was also essential to make progress and lower the risk of protracted stagnation, Kose said, noting that the World Bank hoped to drum up a robust replenishment of IDA funds by December.



Stronger international coordination on climate change, debt restructurings and measures supporting cross-border trade would also be crucial, it said.



Indermit Gill, World Bank chief economist, noted that China, India and South Korea &#8211; now major economic powerhouses &#8211; had once been among the world&#8217;s poorest countries, but were able to tackle extreme poverty and raise living standards.



&#8220;The world cannot afford to turn its back on IDA countries,&#8221; he said.



(Reporting by Andrea Shalal; Editing by Edwina Gibbs)

World Bank As Chief Wont Resign Over Climate Comments

World Bank sounds alarm on ‘historical reversal’ of development for poorest nations

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/F4TO3YKQWNK6NCNXZJUQ2UEGC4-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-423316" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/F4TO3YKQWNK6NCNXZJUQ2UEGC4-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/F4TO3YKQWNK6NCNXZJUQ2UEGC4-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/F4TO3YKQWNK6NCNXZJUQ2UEGC4-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/F4TO3YKQWNK6NCNXZJUQ2UEGC4-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/F4TO3YKQWNK6NCNXZJUQ2UEGC4-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/F4TO3YKQWNK6NCNXZJUQ2UEGC4-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: A man walks past the International Monetary Fund (IMF) logo at its headquarters in Washington, U.S., May 10, 2018. REUTERS/Yuri Gripas/</figcaption></figure>



WASHINGTON, April 11 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva on Thursday said higher U.S. interest rates were not great news for the rest of the world and could become a worry if they continued for a long time, but she thought the U.S. Federal Reserve was acting prudently.



Georgieva, speaking at an event hosted by the Atlantic Council, said the U.S. government could also look at taking other measures to ensure that the U.S. economy was not overheating, but gave no details.



&#8220;Higher interest rates for the rest of the world is not great news. Higher interest rates make the U.S. more attractive so financial flows come here and that leaves the rest of the world somewhat struggling,&#8221; she said.



Higher rates also drove the value of the dollar higher, which meant other countries&#8217; currencies were weaker.



&#8220;If it continues for a long time, it could become a bit of a worry in terms of financial stability,&#8221; she said.



Consumer level inflation data for March released on Wednesday was unexpectedly strong, casting further doubt on the Fed’s current forecast of rate cuts at some point later this year.



The unfavorable price pressure data comes as other reports also pointed to sturdier inflation over the start of the year, challenging the Fed’s most recent projections that penciled in three rate cuts this year.



Minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve showed officials worried that progress on inflation may have stalled, and a longer period of tight monetary policy would be needed to tame it in the world&#8217;s largest economy.



Investors who had earlier expected a rate cut in June now see September as a likelier timing for the easing cycle to begin, following a third consecutive stronger-than-forecast reading on consumer inflation.



Georgieva said the U.S. economy had been successful because it was more innovative, opening space for entrepreneurship at a time of accelerating technological change.



The U.S. labor market had also held up well, with labor supply boosted by immigration, which in turn helped keep wage growth under control, she said.



The Biden administration&#8217;s Inflation Reduction Act and earlier COVID aid had helped support growth, she said, adding that the International Monetary Fund saw some scope for the U.S. government to address lingering inflation and work toward a soft landing for the economy.



&#8220;So fasten your belts,&#8221; she said. &#8220;At some point we will be landing.&#8221;



(Reporting by Andrea Shalal; Editing by Bill Berkrot)

FILE PHOTO: Man walks past the IMF logo at HQ in Washington

IMF head says higher US rates could become a worry if they persist

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/VYRWOXIFAFINVMT3XJTBLOGTZQ-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-475173" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/VYRWOXIFAFINVMT3XJTBLOGTZQ-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/VYRWOXIFAFINVMT3XJTBLOGTZQ-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/VYRWOXIFAFINVMT3XJTBLOGTZQ-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/VYRWOXIFAFINVMT3XJTBLOGTZQ-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/VYRWOXIFAFINVMT3XJTBLOGTZQ-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/VYRWOXIFAFINVMT3XJTBLOGTZQ-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: Anna Bjerde, Managing Director for Operations of The World Bank, attends the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) CEO Summit in San Francisco, California, U.S., November 15, 2023. REUTERS/Carlos Barria/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



WASHINGTON, April 9 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;The World Bank Group&nbsp;unveiled a&nbsp;framework&nbsp;on Tuesday&nbsp;for measuring the results of its development work with 22&nbsp;indicators&nbsp;in what a top official called an important advance in the bank&#8217;s push to increase transparency and accountability.



Anna Bjerde, the World Bank&#8217;s managing director of operations, said&nbsp;the&nbsp;scorecard would allow its shareholders and the people it serves&nbsp;to better&nbsp;see, measure and track the impact of the bank&#8217;s lending and grants.



&#8220;A vision and mission are really great, but unless you can translate it into actions and measure it, then it&#8217;s quite aspirational, and we also want it to be operational,&#8221; Bjerde told&nbsp;Reuters.



The&nbsp;U.S.&nbsp;and other major shareholders have pushed the World Bank&nbsp;to improve how it helps&nbsp;countries address issues such as climate change and pandemic preparedness.



It has already added the phrase &#8220;livable planet&#8221; to its mission statement and reduced the number of its projects to focus on more programmatic and transformational projects.



The scorecard includes 22 global indicators &#8211; down from 150 on a previous instrument &#8211; for poverty, prosperity and a livable planet, as well as themes such as gender equality, inclusion of youth, and how people live in fragile, conflict-affected areas.



It will enable a closer look at development outcomes by adopting a more &#8220;people-centric&#8221; approach, Bjerde said.



For the first time, the work of all World Bank institutions &#8211; including the International Finance Corp and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development &#8211; will be tracked through the same set of indicators.



“It’s a real game changer, providing a new guidepost that our teams can rally around, and provides full visibility on how well we are tackling the most difficult challenges like poverty, climate change, fragility and food insecurity,&#8221; Bjerde said.



The bank sees the scorecard as part of its push to focus on outcomes, not inputs, for instance by measuring the number of people that actually use financial services, not just how many have access.



The bank is still working out the detailed methodologies to calculate the scores in each of the 22 indicators, she said, with half to be released in June and the rest in October.



The first batch will include data on how many people have access to electricity worldwide, and social safety net programs.



The data will include transparent data broken down by gender, regions, age and whether people are in fragile and conflicted-affected countries.



Drilling in like that will allow the bank, its shareholders and clients to &#8220;see how we&#8217;re doing but also where we need to double down,&#8221; she said.



(Reporting by Andrea Shalal; Editing by Josie Kao)

FILE PHOTO: APEC Summit in San Francisco

World Bank unveils new scorecard to measure accountability

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="571" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/YNH43WBRZBKVHDDQ3KLQGQUX2E-820x571.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-474865" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/YNH43WBRZBKVHDDQ3KLQGQUX2E-820x571.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/YNH43WBRZBKVHDDQ3KLQGQUX2E-300x209.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/YNH43WBRZBKVHDDQ3KLQGQUX2E-129x90.jpg 129w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/YNH43WBRZBKVHDDQ3KLQGQUX2E-768x535.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/YNH43WBRZBKVHDDQ3KLQGQUX2E-1536x1070.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/YNH43WBRZBKVHDDQ3KLQGQUX2E-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: A girl carries a container of water at a coltan mine in Kamatare, Masisi territory, North Kivu Province of Democratic Republic of Congo, December 1, 2018. REUTERS/Goran Tomasevic/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



JOHANNESBURG/WASHINGTON, April 9 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;The U.S. must boost commercial ties with African countries to curb reliance on China for supplies of critical minerals, a Washington-based think tank said on Tuesday.



&#8220;U.S. economic and national security depend on securing a reliable supply of critical minerals, including from Africa,&#8221; the United States Institute of Peace said in a report.



The U.S. is almost 100% reliant on &#8220;foreign entities of concern,&#8221; mainly China, for key critical minerals, it said, and must come up with own sources of supply to avoid being shorthanded and vulnerable to China&#8217;s export curbs.



Western mining companies are lagging Chinese rivals in the race to tap Africa&#8217;s abundant mineral resources, key to sectors from electric vehicle manufacturing to defence industries.



To counter China&#8217;s head start in Africa, Washington must roll out &#8220;more vigorous commercial diplomacy with a keen eye toward building critical minerals partnership in Africa,&#8221; the 76-page report said.



One option for the U.S. would be to increase commercial diplomacy in countries such as Democratic Republic of Congo, the world&#8217;s No. 1 cobalt supplier, and Zambia, Africa&#8217;s second-largest copper producer, it said.



The competition for securing minerals in Africa is heating up as cash-rich Middle East firms join the race.



While Western mining companies still see hurdles in investing in countries such as Congo, which lacks vital infrastructure such as roads and adequate electricity, Chinese miners have strengthened their grip in the country and are broadening investment throughout Africa.



The International Development Finance Corporation said in February it could scale up project financing in Africa to help reduce the risk of investing in countries including Congo that some investors still perceive as high risk.



Unlocking U.S. investment in Congo could be helped by reopening its consulate in Lubumbashi that closed in the 1990s after the end of the Cold War, Tuesday&#8217;s USIP report said.



The government also needs to prioritize full development of a memorandum of understanding with Congo and Zambia which could help guide U.S. private investors across the battery metals supply chain, it said.



The U.S. has stepped in to back the Lobito Corridor, a rail link from the central African copper belt that&#8217;s key to export of metals through Angola&#8217;s Lobito port.



The U.S. is &#8220;simply not on, or even near, par in competing with China&#8221; for critical minerals investment and diplomacy in Africa, and needs to take a vigorous approach, USIP said.



Jose Fernandez, the U.S. State Department&#8217;s under secretary for economic growth, energy, and the environment said last month the U.S. holds regular talks with Congo state miner Gecamines.



Still, the U.S. government is unlikely to match the resource levels and the mining ecosystem that China wields in winning mining contracts, USIP said, though &#8220;concerted U.S. efforts to land U.S. mining investment in Africa can succeed.&#8221;



(Reporting by Felix Njini in Johannesburg, Ernest Scheyder in Houston and Daphne Psaledakis in WashingtonEditing by Peter Graff)

FILE PHOTO: A girl carries a container of water at a coltan mine in Kamatare, Masisi territory, North Kivu Province of Democratic Republic of Congo

US must boost Africa ties to secure key minerals, report says

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="540" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/DIWUE6H53FK55N7IANRDIEK5BA-820x540.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-474616" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/DIWUE6H53FK55N7IANRDIEK5BA-820x540.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/DIWUE6H53FK55N7IANRDIEK5BA-300x197.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/DIWUE6H53FK55N7IANRDIEK5BA-137x90.jpg 137w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/DIWUE6H53FK55N7IANRDIEK5BA-768x506.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/DIWUE6H53FK55N7IANRDIEK5BA-1536x1011.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/DIWUE6H53FK55N7IANRDIEK5BA-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: Street vendors are seen serving customers in Camama, on the outskirts of the capital Luanda, in Angola, August 20, 2022. REUTERS/Siphiwe Sibeko/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



JOHANNESBURG, April 8 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Economic growth is set to rise for the next two years in Sub-Saharan Africa, but not enough to make a significant dent in poverty on the continent, the World Bank said in a report on Monday.



The region&#8217;s economy is set to expand 3.4% this year and 3.8% in 2024 as falling inflation boosts private consumption, up from 2.4% in 2023, the World Bank said in its biannual Africa&#8217;s Pulse report.



Many countries in Sub-Saharan Africa were hit hard by the shocks of COVID-19 and Russia&#8217;s war in Ukraine, which pushed up inflation at the same time as rising global interest rates made borrowing prohibitively expensive. Drought and conflict have also affected swathes of the region.



&#8220;Growth is set to bounce back in Sub-Saharan Africa but the recovery is still fragile,&#8221; the report said. &#8220;The pace of economic expansion in the region remains slow and insufficient to have a significant effect on poverty reduction.&#8221;



&#8220;Per capita GDP growth of 1% is associated with poverty reduction of only 1% in the region, compared to 2.5% in the rest of the world.&#8221;



South Africa&#8217;s growth rate is forecast to double in 2024, but just to 1.2%, while Angola&#8217;s is set to pick up to 2.8% from 0.8% last year, driven mainly by the non-oil sector amid falling oil production.



The East African Community region, in contrast, is expected to grow 5.3% this year, due to strong growth in Kenya, Rwanda, Uganda and the Democratic Republic of Congo.



West Africa&#8217;s biggest economy, Nigeria, is forecast to grow 3.3% this year, below its long-term average.



Zambia defaulted on its external debt in 2020, followed by Ghana in 2022 and Ethiopia late last year.



Sub-Saharan Africa&#8217;s public debt-to-GDP ratio is forecast to fall from 61% in 2023 to 57% this year, but more than half of countries are still in or at high risk of debt distress, the report said.



It noted that external borrowing was still more expensive than before the pandemic, despite costs starting to fall.



&#8220;Typically when countries are in these situations, another big shock could send a lot of these countries into these types of financial crises and therefore default,&#8221; Andrew Dabalen, the World Bank&#8217;s chief Africa economist, said in a press briefing, but added, &#8220;We can&#8217;t tell if there&#8217;s going to be another default or not.&#8221;



(Reporting by Rachel Savage; Editing by Sharon Singleton)

FILE PHOTO: Street vendors are seen serving customers in Luanda

Sub-Saharan Africa growth not enough to dent poverty, says World Bank

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Stock-value-rising-and-falling-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-404443" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Stock-value-rising-and-falling-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Stock-value-rising-and-falling-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Stock-value-rising-and-falling-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Stock-value-rising-and-falling.jpg 1254w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Macro view of a screen of trading terminal with abstract financial graph and digits. Trading and forex concept. 3D Rendering</figcaption></figure>



April 5 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Emerging market stocks dipped on Friday, tracking overnight weakness on Wall Street, as hawkish commentary from Federal Reserve officials dampened risk sentiment and tensions in the Middle East kept investors on edge.



The MSCI&#8217;s index for emerging market stocks&nbsp;.MSCIEF&nbsp;fell 0.3% but was still on track for marginal weekly gains.



Emerging market debt saw its first weekly inflow for eight weeks and EM stocks saw inflows of $3.8 billion in the week ended on Wednesday, according to a note by BofA Global Research.



The currencies index&nbsp;.MIEM00000CUS&nbsp;was flat by 0900 GMT.



&#8220;The risk-reward profile of global risk assets is not attractive,&#8221; Arthur Budaghyan, chief emerging market and China strategist for BCA Research, said in a note.



&#8220;Higher U.S. bond yields and rising oil prices might spoil the party.&#8221;



Minneapolis Fed Bank President Neel Kashkari said that at the U.S. central bank&#8217;s meeting last month he pencilled in two interest rate cuts this year &#8211; but if inflation continues to stall, none may be required by year-end.



Traders were also hesitant to take on new positions ahead of Friday&#8217;s closely-watched U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, while rising geopolitical tensions added to worries.



Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu&#8217;s comments that Israel would harm &#8220;whoever harms us or plans to harm us&#8221; stoked fears of a wider war, after its presumed air strike on Iran&#8217;s embassy in Damascus earlier this week.



The Israeli shekel&nbsp;ILS=&nbsp;jumped 0.7% against the dollar, while stocks in Tel Aviv&nbsp;.TA125&nbsp;shed 1.6%.



Meanwhile, the Hungarian forint&nbsp;EURHUF=&nbsp;led gains against the euro among Central and Eastern European peers, up 0.4% after a raft of economic data.



Hungary&#8217;s industrial output rose by an annual 1.8% in February, based on preliminary unadjusted data, compared with a 3.6% fall in January, while another survey showed calendar-adjusted retail sales rose by an annual 1.1% in February following a 0.6% rise in January.



The forint and Poland&#8217;s zloty&nbsp;EURPLN=&nbsp;were on track for their second straight week of gains.



Hong Kong&#8217;s Hang Seng index&nbsp;.HSI&nbsp;closed nearly flat, while stocks in mainland China were closed and will resume trade on April 8.



In India, stocks were range-bound after the central bank kept its key interest rate unchanged for a seventh straight policy meeting as growth is expected to remain robust while inflation stays above the 4% target.



(Reporting by Bansari Mayur Kamdar in Bengaluru; Editing by Kevin Liffey)

Macro view of a screen of trading terminal with abstract financial graph and digits. Trading and forex concept. 3D Rendering

Stocks slip on Fed rate caution and geopolitical woes, currencies flat

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="462" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/107368871-1707125203700-gettyimages-1244583255-ZAMBIA_COPPER-820x462.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-463267" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/107368871-1707125203700-gettyimages-1244583255-ZAMBIA_COPPER-820x462.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/107368871-1707125203700-gettyimages-1244583255-ZAMBIA_COPPER-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/107368871-1707125203700-gettyimages-1244583255-ZAMBIA_COPPER-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/107368871-1707125203700-gettyimages-1244583255-ZAMBIA_COPPER-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/107368871-1707125203700-gettyimages-1244583255-ZAMBIA_COPPER.jpeg 929w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Copper plates on wagons ready for onward shipping at the Mufulira refinery, operated by Mopani Copper Mines Plc, in Mufulira, Zambia, on Friday, May 6, 2022.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



April 4 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;London base metal prices rose on Thursday, with copper hitting its highest level in more than 14 months, supported by a weaker dollar and global rate cuts hopes.



Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME)&nbsp;CMCU3&nbsp;was up 0.9% at $9,344 per metric ton by 0752 GMT. The contract leapt to as much as $9,380 earlier in the session, a level last seen on Jan. 27, 2023.



The dollar fell as investors waited on U.S. labour data for clues on the Federal Reserve&#8217;s interest rate outlook. A weaker dollar makes greenback-priced metals cheaper to holders of other currencies.



Prices were also supported by Fed Chair Jerome Powell&#8217;s affirmation that his outlook on lowering the policy rate at some point this year remained the same and will continue to be guided by economic data.



Meanwhile, Euro zone inflation fell unexpectedly last month, solidifying the case for the European Central Bank to start lowering borrowing costs from record highs.



&#8220;A notable surge in speculative activity on the LME, paired with expectations of relaxed monetary policy outlook in Europe, has propelled metal prices to their highest levels in several months,&#8221; said Sucden Financial analysts in a note.



&#8220;The anticipation of monetary policy cutting cycle and ongoing geopolitical tensions are expected to further ease the pressure that has been felt by base metals in recent months,&#8221; they added.



China&#8217;s stronger-than-expected manufacturing data released earlier this week also boosted optimism around metals demand outlook in their biggest consuming market.



Prices of copper price have especially been aided by output cut plans by Chinese smelters amid a shortage of raw materials.



LME aluminium&nbsp;CMAL3&nbsp;advanced 1% to $2,452, nickel&nbsp;CMNI3&nbsp;increased 0.7% to $17,465, zinc&nbsp;CMZN3&nbsp;rose 1.3% to $2,580.50, lead&nbsp;CMPB3&nbsp;advanced 1.2% to $2,107.50 a ton and tin&nbsp;CMSN3&nbsp;climbed 0.9% to $28,640.



The Chinese markets are closed for a public holiday on Thursday and Friday.



For the top stories in metals and other news, click



TOP/MTL&nbsp;or&nbsp;MET/L



(Reporting by Mai Nguyen in Hanoi; Editing by Sonia Cheema and Philippa Fletcher)

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Economy

Inflation in key African economies to slow into next year

High global food prices may finally see a bottom in 2024, says Oxford Economics

IMF, World Bank steering committee stresses accountability as reforms advance

Sub-Saharan Africa incomes falling further behind rest of world, says IMF

Oil jumps 3%, spot gold hits record high after Israel launches strike in Iran

Battle for development cash heats up at IMF/World Bank meetings

IMF says South Africa needs a debt ceiling as public debt spirals

IMF Board backs key change to lending-into-official-arrears policy

IMF upgrades global growth forecast as economy proves ‘surprisingly resilient’ despite downside risks

Gold is shining ‘bright like a diamond’ and could hit $3,000, says Citi

World Bank sounds alarm on ‘historical reversal’ of development for poorest nations

IMF head says higher US rates could become a worry if they persist

World Bank unveils new scorecard to measure accountability

US must boost Africa ties to secure key minerals, report says

Sub-Saharan Africa growth not enough to dent poverty, says World Bank

Stocks slip on Fed rate caution and geopolitical woes, currencies flat

Copper hits 14-month high on rate cut hopes and soft dollar

News Tips

Advertise With Us

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