<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="462" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/102851129-oilandgold-820x462.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-458020" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/102851129-oilandgold-820x462.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/102851129-oilandgold-300x169.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/102851129-oilandgold-160x90.jpg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/102851129-oilandgold-768x432.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/102851129-oilandgold.jpg 929w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">(L) Oil pumpjacks and (R) gold bars Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



Gold prices could soar to $3,000 per ounce, and oil to $100 per barrel within the next 12 to 18 months subject to any one of three possible catalysts, according to Citi.



Gold, which is currently trading at $2,016, could surge by about 50%, if central banks sharply ramp up purchases of the yellow metal, a possible stagflation, or in case of a deep global recession, Aakash Doshi, Citi’s North America head of commodities research, told CNBC.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-central-bank-s-gold-rush"><a></a>Central bank’s gold rush</h2>



“The most likely wildcard path to $3,000/oz gold is a rapid acceleration of an existing but slow-moving trend: de-dollarization across Emerging Markets central banks that in turn leads to a crisis of confidence in the U.S. dollar,” Citi analysts including Doshi wrote in a recent note.



That could double central bank’s gold purchases, challenging jewelry consumption as the largest driver of gold demand, Doshi elaborated. 



Central banks’ gold purchases have “accelerated to record levels” in recent years, as they seek to diversify reserves and reduce credit risk, Citi said. China and Russian central banks are leading gold purchases, with India, Turkey, and Brazil, also increasing&nbsp;bullion buying.



The world’s central banks have sustained two successive years of more than 1,000 tons of net gold purchases, the World Gold Council reported in January.



“If that goes again [to] double very quickly to 2,000 tons, we think that would be actually very bullish for gold,” Doshi told CNBC via phone.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a></a>A global recession?</h2>



Another trigger that could drive gold to $3,000 would be a “deep global recession” that could spur the U.S. Federal Reserves to cut rates rapidly.



“That means the brakes have been cut, not to 3%, but to 1% or lower &#8211; that will take us to $3,000,” Doshi said, noting that this is a low probability scenario.



Gold prices tend to share an inverse relationship with interest rates. As interest rates dip, gold becomes more appealing compared to fixed-income assets such as bonds, which would yield weaker returns in a low interest rate environment. 



The Fed benchmark interest rate has been between 5.25% and 5.5% since July 2023, the highest since January 2001 when it shot to 6% following the dot-com bubble burst. Markets expect the Fed to cut rates in May or June.



Stagflation — an increasing inflation rate, a slowing economic growth and rising unemployment — could be another trigger, though Doshi said there’s a “very low probability” of such a scenario.



Gold is perceived as a safe haven and tends to perform well in periods of economic uncertainty when investors move away from the riskier assets such as equities.



These three potential triggers aside, Citi maintains that their base case for bullion is $2,150 in the second half of 2024, and the price of gold to average a little over $2,000 in the first half. A new record could be reached towards the end of 2024, Doshi added.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a></a>Oil at $100?</h2>



Another wildcard scenario highlighted in Citi’s report was for oil prices to hit triple digits again.



The catalysts for oil to hit $100 per barrel include higher geopolitical risks, deeper OPEC+ cuts and supply disruptions from key oil producing regions, Doshi said.&nbsp;



The ongoing Israel-Hamas war has not hit oil production or exports, with the only significant impact being the Houthi attacks from Yemen on oil tankers and other ships traversing the Red Sea.



Major oil producer Iraq has been impacted by the conflict and any further escalation could hurt other major OPEC+ suppliers in the region, Citi said.



Recent developments show that tensions have been rising on the border between Israel and Lebanon, raising fears that the war in Gaza could spread elsewhere in the Middle East.



Doshi said Iraq, Iran, Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela are vulnerable to supply disruptions, with steeper U.S. sanctions policy on Iran and Venezuela potentially on the cards.&nbsp;



Other geopolitical risks such as Russian oil supplies, should Ukraine attack Russian refineries with drones, cannot be ruled out, Citi’s analysts wrote. Doshi maintained that their base case for oil stands at around $75 per barrel for the year.



Global benchmark Brent’s April futures were trading at $83.56 a barrel, while the U.S. West Texas Intermediate March futures stood at $79.13 per barrel.<a href="https://www.tetrapak.com/insights/trendipedia" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"></a>

102851129-oilandgold

Gold at $3,000 and oil at $100 by 2025? Citi analysts don’t rule it out

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/A6RAHQABDRIGTJNVXZ2UH7TGEQ-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-451705" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/A6RAHQABDRIGTJNVXZ2UH7TGEQ-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/A6RAHQABDRIGTJNVXZ2UH7TGEQ-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/A6RAHQABDRIGTJNVXZ2UH7TGEQ-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/A6RAHQABDRIGTJNVXZ2UH7TGEQ-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/A6RAHQABDRIGTJNVXZ2UH7TGEQ-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/A6RAHQABDRIGTJNVXZ2UH7TGEQ-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">The headquarters of the African Development Bank (AfDB) are pictured in Abidjan, Ivory Coast, January 30, 2020.REUTERS/Luc Gnago</figcaption></figure>



JOHANNESBURG, Feb 16 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Africa&#8217;s economic growth fell to 3.2% last year from 4.1% in 2022, the African Development Bank said on Friday, but it projected higher growth this year for all regions except central Africa.



The AfDB said political instability and China&#8217;s economic slowdown were compounding the shocks of COVID-19 and Russia&#8217;s war in Ukraine.



The final figure for 2023 was below the 3.4% growth the AfDB had forecast in November. It also cut its regional growth estimates for central and north Africa, amid a recession in oil producer Equatorial Guinea and the aftermath of devastating flooding in Libya.



&#8220;The shocks buffeting African economies since 2020 have damaged growth, with long-term implications,&#8221; the bank said in a report.



Despite the shocks buffeting the region, 15 African countries posted economic growth of more than 5% last year, the AfDB said, including Ethiopia, which is restructuring its external debt, Ivory Coast, Democratic Republic of Congo, Mauritius and Rwanda.



The bank forecast faster growth in all regions except for central Africa in 2024, with southern Africa seen as remaining the laggard at 2.2% compared with 5.7% in east Africa.



Southern Africa&#8217;s &#8220;sluggish performance reflects the continued economic stagnation in South Africa,&#8221; the bank said, with the region&#8217;s largest economy, which holds national elections this year, predicted to grow 1.1% in 2024, up from 0.8% last year.



&#8220;This underwhelming economic situation has aggravated the country&#8217;s persistently high unemployment, poverty, and inequality and prevented it from reaping democratic dividends in the 30 years since the end of White minority rule,&#8221; AfDB said.



Nigeria, West Africa&#8217;s largest economy, is set to grow 2.9% in 2024, up 0.4 percentage points from last year as a sharply devalued currency pushes up inflation, exacerbating a cost of living crisis.



In Egypt, high inflation and foreign exchange shortages are forecast to drag growth down to 3.7% this year, versus 4% in 2023.



(Reporting by Rachel Savage;)

The headquarters of the African Development Bank (AfDB) are pictured in Abidjan, Ivory Coast

Africa’s economic growth fell to 3.2% in 2023, says African Devt Bank

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="615" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/N3Y547ISMFMVHN57UVOVL7X2Y4-820x615.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-456424" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/N3Y547ISMFMVHN57UVOVL7X2Y4-820x615.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/N3Y547ISMFMVHN57UVOVL7X2Y4-300x225.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/N3Y547ISMFMVHN57UVOVL7X2Y4-120x90.jpg 120w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/N3Y547ISMFMVHN57UVOVL7X2Y4-768x576.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/N3Y547ISMFMVHN57UVOVL7X2Y4-1536x1152.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/N3Y547ISMFMVHN57UVOVL7X2Y4-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: Workers help their colleague to carry a bag of cocoa beans on his head in San-Pedro, Ivory Coast October 1, 2023. REUTERS/Ange Aboa/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



ABIDJAN, Feb 15 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Ivory Coast&#8217;s Cocoa and Coffee Council will not default on its export contracts despite a drop in cocoa production since the start of the October-to-March main crop, CCC&#8217;s managing director Yves Brahima Kone said on Thursday.



His remarks followed reports that as traders are scrambling for beans, industry experts are predicting ever wider deficits this season and have growing concerns for the next. Last week, a Reuters cocoa poll forecast a global deficit of 375,000 tons in the 2023/24 season.



Bean supply is tight in the world&#8217;s top producer of the commodity. Cocoa arrivals at ports were 33% lower between Oct. 1 and Feb. 11 compared to the same period last season.



Kone said in an interview on Thursday that the Cocoa and Coffee Council regulator would still meet all its commitments made to exporters last year.



He said the amount of beans available on cocoa plantations across the country would still be enough to meet export contracts despite a sharp drop in supply recorded since the start of the 2023-24 season.



&#8220;I can tell you that there are no and will be no defaults this year in Ivory Coast,&#8221; Kone said.



&#8220;We have been cautious and have sold volumes we were able to produce this season, both for the main and mid crops, so we are calm and serene,&#8221; he said.



Several industry sources, including exporters, have said the April-to-September mid crop would be more or less in line with usual production patterns, which would compensate for low main crop output.



Pod counters, exporters and analysts estimate mid crop production to sit between 450,000 and 500,000 tonnes.



Kone said export contracts that could not be met with main crop harvests would be pushed back to the mid crop&#8217;s harvest period, which has already happened in the past.



&#8220;We can see that the mid crop harvest is developing much better than we expected, and that&#8217;s reassuring. We have sold less and have a good margin,&#8221; he said.



&#8220;We are going to postpone any contracts that need to be postponed, but it&#8217;s important to remember that we have sold just under 300,000 tonnes in mid crop contracts. This gives us some leeway in relation to production forecasts,&#8221; he added.



&#8220;There is less cocoa available this year, but there is plenty for those who have contracts.&#8221;



(Reporting by Ange Aboa; Editing by Sofia Christensen and Susan Fenton)

FILE PHOTO: Workers help their colleague to carry a bag of cocoa beans on his head in San-Pedro

Ivory Coast cocoa council says it will not default on contracts despite bean shortage

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="461" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107352936-1704115855740-gettyimages-1460414638-vcg111420025727-820x461.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-442452" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107352936-1704115855740-gettyimages-1460414638-vcg111420025727-820x461.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107352936-1704115855740-gettyimages-1460414638-vcg111420025727-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107352936-1704115855740-gettyimages-1460414638-vcg111420025727-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107352936-1704115855740-gettyimages-1460414638-vcg111420025727-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107352936-1704115855740-gettyimages-1460414638-vcg111420025727-1536x864.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107352936-1704115855740-gettyimages-1460414638-vcg111420025727.jpeg 1920w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">A worker tying copper wire rods before loading them onto a truck in Huai’an, Jiangsu Province of China.
Vcg | Visual China Group | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



Feb 14 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Prices of most non-ferrous metals eased on Wednesday, weighed down by a stronger dollar after hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation data dampened expectations for early interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.



Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange&nbsp;CMCU3&nbsp;was down 0.8% at $8,195.50 a metric ton, as of 0531 GMT.



The dollar traded near three-month highs against major peers as traders pushed back bets for a first Fed rate cut following surprisingly hot U.S. inflation figures overnight.&nbsp;USD/



A stronger U.S. currency makes dollar-priced metals more expensive for holders of other currencies.



&#8220;Base metals prices are trading lower due to strong U.S. CPI numbers which weighed on expectations of sooner and deeper rate cuts,&#8221; ANZ analyst Soni Kumari said.



Federal funds futures currently price in no rate cut in March and a lower than 50% chance of easing in May, according to LSEG&#8217;s rate probability app.



Data on Tuesday showed U.S. consumer prices increased more than expected in January amid rises in the costs of shelter and healthcare.



Copper, widely used in power and construction, is down more than 4% this month on concerns about demand from top consumer China and its property sector in particular, though activity is muted this week as China celebrates the Lunar New Year.



&#8220;We remain positive on copper due to renewed supply challenges. Tight concentrate market, created by recent mine closures, have seen smelter processing fees falling sharply,&#8221; ANZ&#8217;s Kumari said.



&#8220;Following years of relentless growth, Chinese smelters are now being forced to postpone new plants, bring forward maintenance and even cut production outright amid heavy financial losses. This could impact refined copper production.&#8221;



In other metals, LME aluminium&nbsp;CMAL3&nbsp;slipped 0.6% to $2,212 a ton, nickel&nbsp;CMNI3&nbsp;was steady at $16,270, zinc&nbsp;CMZN3&nbsp;fell 0.7% to $2,299.50, while lead&nbsp;CMPB3&nbsp;rose 0.4% to $2,005. Tin&nbsp;CMSN3&nbsp;dropped 1.4% to $27,200.



For the top stories in metals and other news, click



TOP/MTL&nbsp;or&nbsp;MET/L



(Reporting by Brijesh Patel in Bengaluru; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu and Mrigank Dhaniwala)

107352936-1704115855740-gettyimages-1460414638-vcg111420025727

Most base metals fall on stronger dollar after US inflation data

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="612" height="408" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/istockphoto-1076949610-612x612-1.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-400697" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/istockphoto-1076949610-612x612-1.jpg 612w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/istockphoto-1076949610-612x612-1-300x200.jpg 300w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 612px) 100vw, 612px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Double exposure of coin stack with city background and world map, financial graph, world map and global network business concept idea, element by NASA.</figcaption></figure>



Feb 12 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;A gauge of emerging market stocks was marginally lower in light trading on Monday, with Indian shares amongst leading fallers, while Israel&#8217;s shekel dipped after ratings agency Moody&#8217;s downgraded the country&#8217;s credit rating.



MSCI&#8217;s index for EM stocks&nbsp;.MSCIEF&nbsp;edged 0.1% lower by 0918 GMT, on track for its third straight session decline, while currencies&nbsp;.MIEM00000CUS&nbsp;were largely flat on the day.



Israel&#8217;s shekel ILS= fell 0.4% against the dollar after Moody&#8217;s on Friday downgraded the country&#8217;s credit rating, citing material political and fiscal risks from its war with the Palestinian militant group Hamas.



The rating was cut to &#8220;A2&#8221;, which is five notches above investment grade, while its credit outlook was kept at negative, meaning a further downgrade is possible.



&#8220;Against the background of the security situation, a notch decrease in creditworthiness appears also rather unspectacular and would only follow market pricing rather than cause it,&#8221; Michel Nies, an economist at Citi, wrote in a note.



&#8220;However, the negative outlook and the statement for the latter might be more concerning in the sense that an end to hostilities would not necessarily lead to a reversal of the downgrade.&#8221;



Activity was mostly muted due to holidays in major hubs including mainland China, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan and Malaysia.



In Europe, official data showed Turkey&#8217;s unemployment rate fell 0.1 percentage point month-on-month to 8.8% in December, edging back towards the lowest level in a decade which it hit in October.



The lira&nbsp;TRY=&nbsp;was mostly stable against the dollar, while equities&nbsp;.XU100&nbsp;gained 0.9%, lifted by rising materials shares.



Hungary&#8217;s forint&nbsp;EURHUF=&nbsp;eased 0.3% against the Euro after rising as much as 0.6% in the previous session, while South Africa&#8217;s rand&nbsp;ZAR=&nbsp;edged 0.1% higher, on track for its first daily advance in four sessions.



In the Gulf, Saudi Arabia&#8217;s benchmark stock index .TASI gained 0.2% after Israel said it had &#8220;concluded&#8221; a series of strikes on southern Gaza.



The International Monetary Fund said on Sunday Middle East economies were lagging below growth projections due to oil production cuts and the Israel-Hamas conflict, even as the global economic outlook remained resilient.



Meanwhile, stocks in Pakistan .KSE fell as much as 2.8% after the country&#8217;s national elections ended with no party winning a majority in parliament.



Equities in India .NSEI were down 0.6%, dragged lower by declining energy shares. .BO



(Reporting by Shashwat Chauhan in Bengaluru; Editing by Ros Russell)

istockphoto-1076949610-612×612-1

Stocks edge lower in holiday affected trade; Israel’s shekel down after rating cut

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="538" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/UV3YUMQW55JE3G5VZUFUJTFGZE-820x538.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-454107" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/UV3YUMQW55JE3G5VZUFUJTFGZE-820x538.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/UV3YUMQW55JE3G5VZUFUJTFGZE-300x197.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/UV3YUMQW55JE3G5VZUFUJTFGZE-137x90.jpg 137w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/UV3YUMQW55JE3G5VZUFUJTFGZE-768x504.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/UV3YUMQW55JE3G5VZUFUJTFGZE-1536x1008.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/UV3YUMQW55JE3G5VZUFUJTFGZE-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: Trafigura logo is pictured in the company entrance in Geneva March 11, 2012. REUTERS/Denis Balibouse</figcaption></figure>



LUSAKA, Feb 8 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;The United States will provide more funds for the construction of the Lobito Corridor, a rail link to export metals from Central Africa&#8217;s Copperbelt, including a link for Zambia, U.S. energy envoy Amos Hochstein said.



Washington has been supporting the project linking mineral-rich Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Zambia to Lobito port in Angola. The link seeks to bypass logistics bottlenecks in South Africa that have held up copper and cobalt exports &#8211; metals vital to the energy transition away from fossil fuels.



In 2022, a consortium led by global commodities giant Trafigura, Portugal&#8217;s Mota-Engil&nbsp;MOTA.LS&nbsp;and Vecturis SA of Belgium was awarded a 30-year concession for railway services and support logistics on the Lobito Corridor. The consortium plans to spend $455 million in Angola and $100 million in the DRC on equipment, operations and infrastructure maintenance.



Additional funding is required to extend the 1,700 km (1,060 miles) line into Zambia in the second phase.



&#8220;We have committed to finance $250 million for the Angola phase one. I expect that we will commit additional resources in the same range for the second phase,&#8221; Hochstein said late Wednesday in an interview ahead of an investment forum on the project in Zambia.



The first phase involved upgrading the rail line on the Angolan side, and the second phase will involve building a new multibillion-dollar rail through Zambia and beyond, he said.



&#8220;I expect that we will start seeing some significant volumes using the rail by June-July,&#8221; he said, without giving figures.



The U.S. and its partners have also mobilised close to $1 billion to expand the Lobito Corridor by developing a new 800 km (500 mile) rail line to further connect Zambia to the network, he said during the opening of the investment forum on Thursday.



&#8220;With the Africa Finance Corporation (AFC) as the private-sector lead developing the project, we aim to break ground in 2026 and have an operational rail between eastern Angola across northwestern Zambia by 2028,&#8221; he said.



The AFC had financing commitments from the U.S., the European Union and African Development Bank (AfDB), which would bring in extra private sector financing, he said.



Hochstein welcomed the announcement on Wednesday by mining firm Ivanhoe Mines&nbsp;IVN.TO&nbsp;that it had signed up to use the rail line for its copper exports from the DRC.



&#8220;That&#8217;s critically important because it shows commitment by the private sector to this project. It will also make financing cheaper,&#8221; Hochstein said.



He also said the U.S. was contemplating other similar projects in Africa and elsewhere.



&#8220;Within Africa, I expect to have at least one more in the next year,&#8221; Hochstein said, without specifying where.



(Reporting by Chris Mfula; Editing by Nelson Banya and Mark Potter)

FILE PHOTO: Trafigura logo is pictured in the company entrance in Geneva

US to commit more funds to African rail link for metal exports

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="612" height="357" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/istockphoto-1030878162-612x612-1.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-400669" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/istockphoto-1030878162-612x612-1.jpg 612w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/istockphoto-1030878162-612x612-1-300x175.jpg 300w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 612px) 100vw, 612px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">World map with charts and graphs as symbols of global finance</figcaption></figure>



Feb 7(Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Emerging market stocks pushed higher on Wednesday, as Chinese markets extended their rebound on hopes of further support from authorities, while Argentinian assets were in focus after a setback for President Javier Milei&#8217;s economic reform bill.



MSCI&#8217;s index for emerging market equities&nbsp;.MSCIEF&nbsp;was up 0.3% by 0946 GMT, after hitting its highest level since Jan. 3 earlier in the session.



China&#8217;s blue-chip CSI 300 Index&nbsp;.CSI300&nbsp;rose 1% while the Shanghai Composite index&nbsp;.SSEC&nbsp;ended up 1.4%, both pulling further away from recent five-year lows.



A raft of steps announced by Chinese authorities, including curbs on short-selling, have helped steady the country&#8217;s sagging stock markets in the last few sessions and hopes for more powerful market rescue measures have increased.



South Korea&#8217;s benchmark KOSPI&nbsp;.KS11&nbsp;index also jumped 1.3%.



Meanwhile, investors were watching Argentinian assets after a major economic reform package championed by libertarian President Javier Milei was set to be sent back to a legislative committee for consideration, marking a major setback for the bill.



Argentina&#8217;s dollar-denominated bond maturing in 2041&nbsp;040114HV5=1M&nbsp;fell 0.61 cents to trade at 33.683 cents on the dollar.



&#8220;We think the catalyst for the bonds will be progress on (or hurdles to) the legislative agenda and the signals it sends over popular support for Milei&#8217;s adjustment plan. Implementation risks will then follow,&#8221; analysts at Tellimer said in a note.



A basket of EM currencies&nbsp;.MIEM0000CUS&nbsp;was flat while the dollar&nbsp;=USD&nbsp;retreated from a three-month high.



Risk-sensitive EM currencies have been under pressure in 2024 as hawkish remarks from policymakers have led traders to dial back bets of early rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.



Most regional currencies will struggle to recoup this year&#8217;s losses against the dollar in coming months, a Reuters poll of FX strategists found.



Poland&#8217;s monetary policy decision is also on tap, with the central bank expected to keep its main interest rate on hold at 5.75% at 1300 GMT.



The Polish zloty&nbsp;EURPLN=&nbsp;was up 0.2% versus the euro while stocks in Warsaw&nbsp;.WIG&nbsp;advanced 0.3%.



Elsewhere, Sri Lanka expects to implement a debt restructuring framework within the first six months of 2024, the country&#8217;s president said on Wednesday.



(Reporting by Amruta Khandekar; editing by Christina Fincher)

World map with charts and graphs as symbols of global finance

Stocks nudge higher on China stimulus signals, Argentina in focus

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/QOM6DFY4YFKBTJHWK36SCHU26U-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-424241" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/QOM6DFY4YFKBTJHWK36SCHU26U-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/QOM6DFY4YFKBTJHWK36SCHU26U-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/QOM6DFY4YFKBTJHWK36SCHU26U-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/QOM6DFY4YFKBTJHWK36SCHU26U-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/QOM6DFY4YFKBTJHWK36SCHU26U-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/QOM6DFY4YFKBTJHWK36SCHU26U-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) logo in Washington, United States, September 4, 2018. REUTERS/Yuri Gripas/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



LONDON, Feb 5 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;A new report has called for a radical global effort this year to help vulnerable countries fend off financial meltdown and climate change, including widespread debt relief and even a China-led version of the Brady Bond plan.



The report by the Boston University Global Development Policy Center warned that 62 developing economies, including most of Africa and Oceania, are already in a full-blown debt crisis or in immediate need of restructurings.



Last year&#8217;s surge in world interest rates combined with underwhelming post-pandemic economic recoveries and the costs of climate change mean a near record number of countries now spend at least 20% of their government revenues servicing their debt.



That is widely regarded as unsustainable.



Around 21 countries make half of those payments to multilateral development banks (MDBs) like the World Bank, said the report, while eight are in a similar situation with China, two to the Western &#8220;Paris Club&#8221; governments and two to their international bondholders.



&#8220;The world is facing a now or never moment,&#8221; the report published on Sunday said. &#8220;Immediate action is needed to curtail the intrinsically linked global debt and environmental crises&#8221;.



The call to arms comes just ahead of 2024&#8217;s first meeting next week of the &#8220;Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable&#8221;, a group co-chaired by the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and the G20 Brazilian presidency and whose job it is to formulate better ways to resolve debt problems.



Boston University professor Kevin Gallagher said far more &#8220;ambition&#8221; was needed with the G20-led &#8220;Common Framework&#8221; default resolution programme, largely regarded as a flop since its creation a few years ago.



As well as speeding up debt restructurings, countries should also have an option to temporarily suspend debt payments before they plunge into default.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-chinese-brady-bonds">CHINESE BRADY BONDS?</h2>



Meanwhile China&#8217;s increasing importance as a creditor to the developing world means it should consider spearheading a modern day version of the Brady Bond plan backed by the U.S. Treasury in the late 1980s to help resolve Latin American crises.



&#8220;The Chinese seem to be the most appropriate for a Brady Bond approach,&#8221; Gallagher said, explaining that like with Western banks in Latin America in the 1980s, China&#8217;s state-controlled banks often provide loans in troubled countries now.



&#8220;We need carrots and sticks,&#8221; Gallagher said. &#8220;We need to give these countries breathing room.&#8221;



The report also looked at risks coming from climate change.



Around 91 countries are above the global median for at least one of four categories: their climate change vulnerability, the need to reduce emissions to meet Paris Agreement targets and opportunities to protect precious land or coastal ecosystems.



Chad, Niger and Guinea-Bissau are all highly vulnerable to global warming, whereas Cabo Verde, the Solomon Islands and Papua New Guinea all have huge conservation opportunities.



The prospect of climate change doubter Donald Trump getting back into power in the United States after November elections is another reason why there is such urgency to provide debt relief now.



&#8220;Trump has shown (during his first term) he can withdraw from an international treaty, but it would be hard to dismantle something if it was at the G20 level,&#8221; Gallagher said. &#8220;That is why this is the year to lock this in.&#8221;



(Reporting by Marc Jones; Editing by Emelia Sithole-Matarise)

FILE PHOTO: The IMF logo is seen outside the headquarters building in Washington

Vulnerable countries need debt relief ‘now or never’, new report warns

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="462" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/107233200-1682914795655-gettyimages-1248428651-20090101230317-99-987917-820x462.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-453152" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/107233200-1682914795655-gettyimages-1248428651-20090101230317-99-987917-820x462.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/107233200-1682914795655-gettyimages-1248428651-20090101230317-99-987917-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/107233200-1682914795655-gettyimages-1248428651-20090101230317-99-987917-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/107233200-1682914795655-gettyimages-1248428651-20090101230317-99-987917-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/107233200-1682914795655-gettyimages-1248428651-20090101230317-99-987917.jpeg 929w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Gold and silver bars of various sizes lie in a safe on a table at the precious metals dealer Pro Aurum in Munich. Sven Hoppe | Picture Alliance | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



Gold and silver are expected to climb further in 2024 on expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates, UBS forecasts.



“We are expecting gold to be pushed higher by a Fed easing. Also this comes with a weaker dollar” said the investment bank’s precious metals strategist Joni Teves, who expects the metal to hit $2,200 per ounce by the end of the year.



Gold prices tend to have an inverse relationship with interest rates. As interest rates dip, gold becomes more appealing compared to alternative investments like bonds, which would yield weaker returns in a low interest rate environment.&nbsp;



In turn, lower rates weaken the dollar, making gold cheaper for international buyers, driving up demand.



While there is still much uncertainty on the timing and extent of rate cuts, UBS maintained its expectations for the Federal Reserve to ease policy. Last week, the Fed announced its decision to leave rates unchanged in January, on top of shooting down hopes of a rate cut in March. 



The bullion’s appeal as a safe haven asset has risen since Israel’s war with Hamas began on Oct. 7, which contributed to gold prices notching an all-time high of $2,100 an ounce last month.



“We do think investors will start to build allocations to gold in an environment where there is a lot of macro uncertainty [and] geopolitical risks,” said Teves.



Prospects for gold’s “poorer cousin” are also optimistic, with silver on course to “really, really shine.”



Silver is not as common of a geopolitical and safety haven compared to gold, which partly explains why it has underperformed gold in the last few years, the strategist said. But the tables could turn in its favor when the Fed eases.



“In a scenario where the Fed is easing, we think silver can do really well. It tends to outperform a move in gold,” Teves said. “Silver has been underperforming gold quite a lot. So there is a lot of catching up to do and I think the move could be quite dramatic,” she added.



Silver’s performance is tied closely to the health of the overall economy due to its wide industrial applications. The precious metal is commonly incorporated in the manufacturing of automobiles, solar panels, jewelry and electronics.



Gold last traded at $2,052 per ounce, while silver was priced at $22.69 per ounce.

107233200-1682914795655-gettyimages-1248428651-20090101230317-99-987917

Gold prices to hit $2,200 and a ‘dramatic’ outperformance awaits silver in 2024, says UBS

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="462" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/107308670-1695930955313-gettyimages-1478432952-118-820x462.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-452310" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/107308670-1695930955313-gettyimages-1478432952-118-820x462.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/107308670-1695930955313-gettyimages-1478432952-118-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/107308670-1695930955313-gettyimages-1478432952-118-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/107308670-1695930955313-gettyimages-1478432952-118-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/107308670-1695930955313-gettyimages-1478432952-118.jpeg 929w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Gold purchases from central banks led to last year’s surge, with purchases exceeding 1,000 tons for two consecutive years. Traffic_analyzer | Istock | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



Gold demand hit record highs in 2023 as persistent geopolitical tensions and weakness in China’s economy pushed investors toward the safe haven asset, the World Gold Council said in report.



Total gold transactions stood at 4,899 tons last year compared with 4,741 tons in 2022, inclusive of over the counter deals as well as stock flows that reflect changes to inventories on commodity exchanges.



Unlike trading conducted by an exchange, OTC transactions take place directly between two parties.



The biggest drivers of gold demand in 2023 were the Russia-Ukraine war and Israel-Hamas conflict as well as the slowdown in China’s economy — and these could continue boosting the metal’s prices well into 2024, said Shaokai Fan, head of central banks at WGC.&nbsp;



Prices hit an all-time high of $2,100 an ounce in December as central banks as well as retail investors increased purchases of gold — central bank purchases have exceeded 1,000 tons for two consecutive years. 



“2023 was the second highest year in history of central bank gold buying, within a hair’s breadth of the record high in 2022,” Fan told CNBC in a Zoom interview.&nbsp;



The report showed that the People’s Bank of China was the biggest buyer of gold at 225 tons last year, bumping up its stock to 2,235 tons.



“If you as an individual will see that your own central bank is buying large amounts of gold, you’re at the very least more aware of gold … Or maybe you’re even influenced by the fact that your central bank is buying a lot of gold, you may think of gold as a personal&nbsp;investment as well,”&nbsp; Fan said.&nbsp;



China’s real estate crisis has also pushed more investors toward gold, he highlighted.



China Evergrande, once among the country’s largest property developers, was ordered by a Hong Kong court to liquidate after the company failed to reach an 11th-hour deal over the weekend to restructure.



The country’s investments in gold bars and coins rose 28% from 2023 and stood at 280 tons last year.



“Chinese investors are worried about the future of other asset classes, and they’re turning to gold as a way to protect their investment portfolios,” Fan said. Gold has actually done very well in renminbi terms, and very well compared to other asset classes in China.”&nbsp;



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-gold-jewelry-purchases"><a></a>Gold jewelry purchases</h2>



Data from the World Gold Council showed that&nbsp;China dethroned India as the world’s largest gold&nbsp;jewelry buyer in 2023.&nbsp;



People in China bought 603 tons of gold Jewelry in 2023, a 10% increase from the previous year.&nbsp;



This was largely due to a rise in weddings that were postponed after the economy reopened from the pandemic in late 2022, Fan noted. 



He&nbsp;elaborated that gold purchases could rise further as the Lunar New Year approaches, and according to Asian folklore, the upcoming Year of the Dragon is a good year to have children.&nbsp;



“More babies will generally [cause] a positive impact on gold demand,” Fan said, but warned that China’s gold demand could fall after the first quarter of 2024.&nbsp;



Apart from rising gold prices and a slowdown in economic growth, this year is predicted to be a less auspicious year for marriages, the WGC report said.&nbsp;India too will have just 16 auspicious wedding dates in the first quarter, compared with 28 last year.



Gold Jewelry purchases fell by 6% in 2023 to 562 tons from the previous year due to the country’s price sensitive market, Fan said.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a></a>2024 outlook&nbsp;</h2>



Gold purchases this year are unlikely to meet 2023 levels, but a fall in inflation could prevent a drastic drop in demand, WGC said.&nbsp;



“Should inflation drop significantly consumers might start to feel wealthier in real terms, which could mitigate some of the drop in demand.” 



Inflation in the U.S. came in at 3.3% on a 12-month basis in 2023, still above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell saying Wednesday that the U.S. Federal Reserve was unlikely to cut interest rates in March.



The announcement triggered a 3% fall in gold prices which stood at $2,064 during Asia’s Thursday morning trading session.



“During periods of persistent strong hyperinflation, gold does very well. But during moderate inflationary periods, gold can go either way. It might be determined by other factors as well,” Fan said.

107308670-1695930955313-gettyimages-1478432952-118

Gold demand hit record highs in 2023 amid geopolitical risks, China weakness

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="542" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/VD3Z4T2SLNI6BBBICXVUAKWUBI-820x542.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-452096" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/VD3Z4T2SLNI6BBBICXVUAKWUBI-820x542.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/VD3Z4T2SLNI6BBBICXVUAKWUBI-300x198.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/VD3Z4T2SLNI6BBBICXVUAKWUBI-136x90.jpg 136w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/VD3Z4T2SLNI6BBBICXVUAKWUBI-768x508.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/VD3Z4T2SLNI6BBBICXVUAKWUBI-1536x1016.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/VD3Z4T2SLNI6BBBICXVUAKWUBI-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: Federal Reserve Board building on Constitution Avenue is pictured in Washington, U.S., on March 19, 2019. REUTERS/Leah Millis/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



LONDON, Feb 1 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Major central banks stood pat on interest rates in January, as the much anticipated change of course in the global monetary policy draws closer while emerging market peers ploughed on with rate cuts.



January saw five of the central banks overseeing the 10 most heavily traded currencies &#8211; the U.S. Federal Reserve, the ECB, the Bank of Japan, Bank of Canada and Norges Bank &#8211; hold rate setting meetings with none changing rates. That follows on from eight meetings in December where only Norway hiked.



&#8220;Interest rates are set to remain front and centre in 2024,&#8221; Philip Shaw at Investec said in a research note. &#8220;However, in a departure from the last two years, now the question is not how far central banks will raise rates, but when and how far they will cut.&#8221;



Fed chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday delivered a sweeping endorsement of the U.S. economy&#8217;s strength and said the next rate move would be lower. But he also pushed back against markets betting on a move as soon as March, with expectations now anticipating a first Fed cut in May.



Meanwhile, emerging economies &#8211; which have been frontrunning both the tightening and the easing cycle &#8211; ploughed on with rate cuts.



Five of the Reuters sample of 18 central banks in developing economies cut rates in January &#8211; matching the December number which had been the highest number in at least three years. Across the Reuters markets sample, 12 central banks held rate setting meetings last month.



Policy makers in Brazil, Hungary, Colombia and Chile all extended their easing push, while Israel joined the fray, delivering the first rate cut in four years. The moves brought the January rate cut tally to 275 basis point &#8211; the biggest monthly total since May 2022.



Turkey was the sole outlier in January, delivering another 250 bps rate hike to shore up its battered currency and tackle sticky inflation, though the central bank said it had now completed its aggressive tightening cycle.



Analysts predicted that monetary easing would continue to broaden out in the months ahead.



&#8220;Mexico&#8217;s central bank will probably be the next to cut rates later this quarter, and many Asian central banks will join the fray in April and May, which is sooner than most expect,&#8221; said William Jackson at Capital Economics in a note to clients.



(Reporting by Karin Strohecker and Sumanta Sen; Editing by Andrew Heavens)

FILE PHOTO: Federal Reserve Board building is pictured in Washington

Major central bank rates plateau in January ahead of expected cuts

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="612" height="408" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/istockphoto-1076949610-612x612-1.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-400697" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/istockphoto-1076949610-612x612-1.jpg 612w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/istockphoto-1076949610-612x612-1-300x200.jpg 300w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 612px) 100vw, 612px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Double exposure of coin stack with city background and world map, financial graph, world map and global network business concept idea, element by NASA.</figcaption></figure>



Feb 1 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Emerging market currencies were range-bound against a firm dollar on Thursday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell pushed back against hopes of an early rate cut, while stocks edged higher as investors digested mixed business activity data from the region.



MSCI&#8217;s index of emerging market (EM) currencies&nbsp;.MIEM00000CUS&nbsp;was muted at 0922 GMT, while the dollar&nbsp;=USD&nbsp;held close to its highest level since mid-December.



The Fed held rates steady late Wednesday, as widely expected, but Powell, at a conference following the decision, said a rate cut at the March meeting was unlikely, leading investors to shift bets of the first cut to May.



&#8220;Markets have a tendency of being impatient when waiting for major central banks led by the Fed to start monetary policy easing after being hooked over many years&#8230;to low-interest rates,&#8221; said Piotr Matys, senior FX analyst at In Touch Capital Markets.



&#8220;This explains why investors ended up disappointed with remarks from Chair Powell. Consequently, the dollar is broadly stronger and EM currencies are weaker.&#8221;



The South African rand&nbsp;ZAR=&nbsp;slipped 0.1% against the dollar, and the Israeli shekel&nbsp;ILS=&nbsp;moved 0.2% lower.



Asian currencies were mixed with China&#8217;s yuan&nbsp;CNY=CFXS&nbsp;down 0.2% versus the dollar.



A gauge of regional stocks&nbsp;.MSCIEF&nbsp;rose 0.4% after two straight days of losses.



EM assets started 2024 on a sour note, logging declines in January due to uncertainty around the timing of U.S. interest rate cuts and fresh evidence of China&#8217;s uneven economic growth.



China&#8217;s blue-chip index .CSI300 closed up 0.1% on Thursday after a private-sector survey showed the country&#8217;s factory activity expanded modestly in January. Hong Kong&#8217;s Hang Seng .HSI gained 0.5%.



South Korean shares .KS11 advanced 1.8% following data which showed domestic factory activity expanded in January for the first time in 19 months.



Indian shares .NSEI, .BSESN lost momentum after the government presented its last budget before a national election due by May. The country&#8217;s factory activity expanded at its fastest pace in four months in January.



In other news, Pakistan&#8217;s election panel has summoned top security officials for a meeting on Thursday to discuss increasing violence in the country&#8217;s western provinces ahead of next week&#8217;s national election.



(Reporting by Amruta Khandekar: Editing by Tasim Zahid)

Currencies meander after Fed rate cut pushback, PMIs in focus

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="612" height="350" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/istockphoto-1040865674-612x612-1.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-400879" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/istockphoto-1040865674-612x612-1.jpg 612w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/istockphoto-1040865674-612x612-1-300x172.jpg 300w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 612px) 100vw, 612px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Stock market report. 3d illustration</figcaption></figure>



Jan 31 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Emerging market stocks fell on Wednesday as dismal factory activity data from China added to worries about its economic woes while most currencies were subdued in the run up to the Federal Reserve&#8217;s interest rate decision.



MSCI&#8217;s index of emerging market (EM) equities&nbsp;.MSCIEF&nbsp;was down 0.5% by 0957 GMT, while a gauge of regional currencies&nbsp;.MIEM00000CUS&nbsp;was flat against a firm dollar&nbsp;=USD.



Both EM stocks and currencies were set to end the first month of 2024 with their biggest monthly percentage drop since August as reduced bets of U.S. interest rate cuts and fresh concerns about China&#8217;s faltering economy sapped risk appetite.



Equities in mainland China .CSI300 and Hong Kong .HIS shed 0.9% and 1.4% on Wednesday after data showed China&#8217;s manufacturing activity contracted for the fourth straight month in January.



The blue-chip index&nbsp;.CSI300&nbsp;was headed for its sixth straight month in the red.



The Fed&#8217;s policy decision, due at 1400 ET (1900 GMT), followed by commentary from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, is a key catalyst for the dollar and emerging markets as it will shape expectations for the timing of U.S. rate cuts.



Investors have pushed back expectations of the first rate cut from March to May given evidence of resilience in the U.S. economy.



&#8220;If Powell is more decisive than last time in pushing back against the rather ambitious expectations for this year, then the dollar should benefit again,&#8221; said Michael Pfister, FX analyst at Commerzbank in a note.



Among currencies, the South African rand&nbsp;ZAR=&nbsp;firmed 0.5% against the dollar.



The Turkish lira TRYTOM=D3 was flat at 30.359 against the dollar. Data showed the country&#8217;s foreign trade deficit narrowed 3.2% year-on-year to $105.99 billion in 2023 while tourism revenues hit a record high.



In other news, Asian central banks may see scope to loosen monetary policy later this year as inflation moderates, the International Monetary Fund said on Wednesday.



Data showed Taiwan&#8217;s trade-dependent economy grew faster than expected in the fourth quarter. The Taiwan dollar TWD=TP was down 0.3%.



&#8220;We believe the tech-export recovery and Taiwan&#8217;s place in the AI-related supply chain are likely to provide additional lift in 2024,&#8221; Barclays analysts said in a note.



(Reporting by Amruta Khandekar; Editing by Andrew Cawthorne)

Stock market report. 3d illustration

Stocks, FX set for monthly losses; Fed rate verdict in focus

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/A6RAHQABDRIGTJNVXZ2UH7TGEQ-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-451705" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/A6RAHQABDRIGTJNVXZ2UH7TGEQ-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/A6RAHQABDRIGTJNVXZ2UH7TGEQ-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/A6RAHQABDRIGTJNVXZ2UH7TGEQ-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/A6RAHQABDRIGTJNVXZ2UH7TGEQ-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/A6RAHQABDRIGTJNVXZ2UH7TGEQ-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/A6RAHQABDRIGTJNVXZ2UH7TGEQ-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">The headquarters of the African Development Bank (AfDB) are pictured in Abidjan, Ivory Coast, January 30, 2020.REUTERS/Luc Gnago</figcaption></figure>



LONDON/JOHANNESBURG, Jan 30 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;The African Development Bank (AfDB) has sold its long-awaited hybrid capital note, the first financing of its kind for multilateral development banks, which are under increasing pressure to find ways to boost their lending.



The G20 group of major economies has urged multilateral lenders to explore hybrid financing structures, to try to maximise balance sheets and increase funding to help developing economies with crises including climate change.



The $750 million perpetual hybrid note has a 5.75% coupon, tighter than the 6.375% guidance. The deeply subordinated, debt-like equity instrument has a lower credit rating than the lender&#8217;s AAA-rated bonds and can be redeemed by investors after 10.5 years or every five years thereafter.



&#8220;This is not a one-off transaction, it is definitely one of many more transactions to come,&#8221; said Hassatou N&#8217;Sele, VP Finance and Chief Financial Officer for the AfDB Group, declining to give more details on future issuance plans.



&#8220;We are establishing hybrid capital issued by AAA rated multilateral development banks as a new asset class &#8230; Other MDBs have indicated an interest in exploring hybrid capital.&#8221;



After an investor roadshow in September, the AfDB delayed the launch amid rising borrowing costs and choppy markets.



BNP Paribas and Goldman Sachs structured and coordinated the issuance, while Barclays and BofA Securities joined as bookrunners. S&amp;P Global rates the notes an AA-minus.



Damian Saunders, FIG Syndicate at BNP Paribas, said the transaction attracted a broad range of investors from private banks to asset managers and specialist credit funds.



&#8220;It was clearly a big learning curve for all parties involved and that includes the investor side as well – investors had to go away and decide how to price this risk,&#8221; Saunders said.



The AfDB&#8217;s acting treasurer told Reuters in November the bank has the capacity to issue $4 billion-$5 billion of hybrid capital bonds, but would be &#8220;progressive&#8221; with one or two transactions per year.



The terms of the hybrid note allow for a permanent principal writedown if the AfDB faces stress and needs shareholders to increase its capital, while coupon payments also can be skipped.



(Reporting by Karin Strohecker and Rachel Savage, Additional reporting by Rodrigo Campos, Editing by Marguerita Choy)

African Development Bank sells hybrid note in development finance first

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Stock-value-rising-and-falling-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-404443" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Stock-value-rising-and-falling-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Stock-value-rising-and-falling-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Stock-value-rising-and-falling-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Stock-value-rising-and-falling.jpg 1254w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Macro view of a screen of trading terminal with abstract financial graph and digits. Trading and forex concept. 3D Rendering</figcaption></figure>



Jan 30 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Equities in emerging economies lost momentum on Tuesday as markets in China and Hong Kong were hit by growing property sector concerns, while the Hungarian forint was subdued in the run-up to a widely expected local rate cut.



MSCI&#8217;s index for emerging market (EM) stocks had shed 0.7% by 0912 GMT, coming off a two-week high hit in the prior session.



Heavyweight China .CSI300 and Hong Kong .HSI stocks fell 1.8% and 2.3% respectively, as the liquidation of property giant China Evergrande triggered fresh concerns over China&#8217;s heavily indebted real estate sector.



&#8220;The Evergrande headlines yesterday serve as a reminder that there are no quick fixes for the property sector and the measures announced by policymakers to support local equity markets&#8230;are not proving effective,&#8221; Chris Turner, global head of markets at ING wrote in a note.



China&#8217;s 10-year government bond yieldsCN230026=, CN10YT=RR slid below 2.47% to their lowest levels since June 2002 as markets bet the country would ease monetary policy to support its faltering economy.



Most other Asian bourses were also in the red as an uptick in oil prices due to tensions in the Middle East raised concerns about prolonged inflationary pressures ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve&#8217;s interest rate announcement due on Wednesday.



Commentary from the central bank following the decision will be a key catalyst for risky EM assets as it will influence bets about the timing of U.S. rate cuts, which have been scaled back this month.



Equities in Turkey&nbsp;.XU100, South Africa&nbsp;.JTOPI, Poland&nbsp;.WIG&nbsp;and Romania&nbsp;.BETI&nbsp;climbed between 0.2% and 0.6%.



In currencies, the Hungarian forint EURHUF= was down 0.1%, languishing at near four-month lows against the euro ahead of a local monetary policy decision due at 1300 GMT. The National Bank of Hungary is expected to cut its base rate by 100 basis points to 9.75%, according to a Reuters poll.



The Czech crown EURCZK= slipped 0.1% while the benchmark ten-year bond yield CZ10YT=RR fell to 3.904%. Data showed the Czech economy rose 0.2% on a quarterly basis in the last three months of 2023.



A broader gauge of EM currencies&nbsp;.MIEM00000CUS&nbsp;edged up 0.2%.



The South African rand ZAR= slipped 0.1%, while the Thai baht THB=TH, South Korean won KRW= and Taiwan dollar TWD=TP rose between 0.2% and 0.5% against the dollar.



(Reporting by Amruta Khandekar; editing by Jason Neely)

Macro view of a screen of trading terminal with abstract financial graph and digits. Trading and forex concept. 3D Rendering

Stocks sputter on China property sector woes, Hungary in focus

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/K3R6TLCHVRIXXEGLDCVETAAITQ-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-451111" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/K3R6TLCHVRIXXEGLDCVETAAITQ-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/K3R6TLCHVRIXXEGLDCVETAAITQ-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/K3R6TLCHVRIXXEGLDCVETAAITQ-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/K3R6TLCHVRIXXEGLDCVETAAITQ-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/K3R6TLCHVRIXXEGLDCVETAAITQ-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/K3R6TLCHVRIXXEGLDCVETAAITQ-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Italy&#8217;s newly appointed Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni speaks to the media following a meeting with Italian President Sergio Mattarella at the Quirinale Palace in Rome, Italy October 21, 2022. REUTERS/Guglielmo Mangiapane</figcaption></figure>



ROME, Jan 29 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni called for a new partnership with Africa on Monday, unveiling a long-awaited plan aimed at boosting economic ties, creating an energy hub for Europe and curbing immigration.



Speaking at a one-day summit attended by more than two dozen African leaders and European Union officials, Meloni outlined a series of initiatives, pledging an initial 5.5 billion euros ($5.95 billion), including state guarantees.



&#8220;We believe it is possible to envision and write a new chapter in the history of our relationship, a cooperation among equals, far from any predatory imposition or charitable stance towards Africa,&#8221; Meloni said in an opening speech.



However, the proposal got a cool response from some of those present, with Moussa Faki Mahamat, chairman of the African Union Commission, saying he wished Africa had been consulted first.



&#8220;I want to insist here on the need to move from words to actions. You can well understand that we can no longer be satisfied with mere promises that are often not kept,&#8221; he said, standing alongside Meloni in Italy&#8217;s ornate Senate.



Among the African leaders present were the presidents of Tunisia, Senegal, Kenya, the Republic of Congo and Somalia. In all, 45 African states were represented at various levels.



Critics have said that heavily indebted Italy cannot hope to compete with the likes of China, Russia and Gulf states, that are all looking to boost their presence in Africa, which is home to many of the world&#8217;s natural resources.



While Rome claims ownership of the plan, which it has named after the late Enrico Mattei, who founded state oil company Eni, Meloni said her government would look to help from the private sector and international bodies such as the European Union.



Underscoring that point, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, European Council President Charles Michel and the head of the EU Parliament were all at the Rome meeting.



&#8220;The Mattei Plan&#8230; fits perfectly into our European Global Gateway worth 150 billion euros. This is our plan for Africa,&#8221; von der Leyen told Monday&#8217;s gathering, referring to an infrastructure project unveiled in 2021.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-energy-needs">ENERGY NEEDS</h2>



Meloni has made the Mattei plan a central plank of her foreign policy since taking office in late 2022.



Energy needs lie at the heart of the initiative, with Rome looking to serve as a gateway into European markets for natural gas from Africa that has become vital after Russia&#8217;s invasion of Ukraine made diversification of supplies a priority for the EU.



Eni, Italy&#8217;s largest importer of natural gas, has already countered lower Russian supplies by shipping increased volumes from Africa, where it has had a presence for decades.



The company has said Algeria, Egypt and Libya will be Italy&#8217;s main gas suppliers for the next few years.



But Meloni also said Europe had to bolster industry and agriculture in Africa to strengthen local economies as a way of persuading disaffected young Africans from migrating north.



Some 157,600 boat migrants reached Italy last year, the largest number since 2016, undermining Meloni&#8217;s electoral pledge to halt the flow of unauthorised arrivals.



Most departed from North African countries such as Tunisia and Libya, many fleeing poverty and conflict in sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East.



&#8220;Mass immigration will never be stopped, human traffickers will never be defeated if we do not address the many causes that push a person to leave their home,&#8221; Meloni told the summit. &#8220;This is exactly what we intend to do.&#8221;



(Writing by Crispian Balmer; Editing by Alex Richardson and Sharon Singleton)

Italy’s newly appointed Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni speaks to the media following a meeting with Italian President Sergio Mattarella, in Rome

Italy’s Meloni seeks new partnership with Africa, funds limited

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="612" height="357" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/istockphoto-1030878162-612x612-1.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-400669" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/istockphoto-1030878162-612x612-1.jpg 612w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/istockphoto-1030878162-612x612-1-300x175.jpg 300w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 612px) 100vw, 612px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">World map with charts and graphs as symbols of global finance</figcaption></figure>



Jan 23 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Equities in emerging markets regained ground on Tuesday, supported by news of potential steps by Chinese authorities to stabilise domestic stock markets, while regional currencies were mixed against a softer dollar.



MSCI&#8217;s index of emerging market equities&nbsp;.MSCIEF&nbsp;advanced 0.4% by 0900 GMT, with Hong Kong&#8217;s Hang Seng&nbsp;.HSI&nbsp;index leading the charge, jumping 2.6%.



Stocks in mainland China .CSI300 also ended higher after China&#8217;s cabinet said on Monday it will step up measures to stabilise market confidence. However the index was not far from five-year lows hit last week.



Policymakers are seeking to mobilise about 2 trillion yuan ($278.53 billion) as part of a stabilisation fund to buy shares onshore through the Hong Kong exchange link, according to a Bloomberg News report. China&#8217;s yuan CNY=CFXS firmed 0.3% against the dollar.



&#8220;This is a strong message that conveys Beijing’s intention to artificially support Chinese markets,&#8221; ING strategists said in a research note, but added it was only a temporary fix.



&#8220;Ultimately, stronger conviction on a Chinese economic rebound is likely necessary to drive a sustainable recovery in Chinese-linked stocks.&#8221;



Taiwan&nbsp;.TWII&nbsp;and South Korea&#8217;s&nbsp;.KS11&nbsp;tech-heavy stock indexes also rose, tracking a positive finish on Wall Street overnight. Equities in Turkey&nbsp;.XU100&nbsp;and South Africa&nbsp;.JTOPI&nbsp;gained over 1%.



Japanese shares .N225 surged to fresh 34-year highs as the Bank of Japan stood pat on ultra-loose monetary policy.



Assets in emerging markets (EM) have been under pressure this year due to concerns around China&#8217;s economic growth and reduced bets of U.S. interest rate cuts. Investors are now awaiting policy decisions from the European Central Bank (ECB) as well as South Africa and Turkey this week.



Indian shares .NSEI, .BSESN were among laggards on Tuesday, pulled down by a drop in shares of Zee EntertainmentZEE.NS.



Among currencies, the South African rand&nbsp;ZAR=&nbsp;came off three month lows to trade at 19.1161 to the dollar. However, the Israeli shekel&nbsp;ILS=&nbsp;and the Turkish lira&nbsp;TRYTOM=D3&nbsp;were weaker.



A broader gauge of EM currencies&nbsp;.MIEM00000CUS&nbsp;was muted.



Sri Lanka&#8217;s central bank kept interest rates steady on Tuesday, in line with market expectations as a new tax threatened upward pressure on expenses. The country&#8217;s CSE index .CSE dipped 1.0% while the local currency LKR= was flat.



(Reporting by Amruta Khandekar; Editing by Angus MacSwan)

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Economy

Gold at $3,000 and oil at $100 by 2025? Citi analysts don’t rule it out

Africa’s economic growth fell to 3.2% in 2023, says African Devt Bank

Ivory Coast cocoa council says it will not default on contracts despite bean shortage

Most base metals fall on stronger dollar after US inflation data

Stocks edge lower in holiday affected trade; Israel’s shekel down after rating cut

US to commit more funds to African rail link for metal exports

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Vulnerable countries need debt relief ‘now or never’, new report warns

Gold prices to hit $2,200 and a ‘dramatic’ outperformance awaits silver in 2024, says UBS

Gold demand hit record highs in 2023 amid geopolitical risks, China weakness

Major central bank rates plateau in January ahead of expected cuts

Currencies meander after Fed rate cut pushback, PMIs in focus

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African Development Bank sells hybrid note in development finance first

Stocks sputter on China property sector woes, Hungary in focus

Italy’s Meloni seeks new partnership with Africa, funds limited

China optimism props up stocks, currencies struggle

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