<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="462" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/107065218-1653293244892-gettyimages-1323151704-oil-pumps-and-rig-at-sunset-820x462.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-425257" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/107065218-1653293244892-gettyimages-1323151704-oil-pumps-and-rig-at-sunset-820x462.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/107065218-1653293244892-gettyimages-1323151704-oil-pumps-and-rig-at-sunset-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/107065218-1653293244892-gettyimages-1323151704-oil-pumps-and-rig-at-sunset-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/107065218-1653293244892-gettyimages-1323151704-oil-pumps-and-rig-at-sunset-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/107065218-1653293244892-gettyimages-1323151704-oil-pumps-and-rig-at-sunset.jpeg 929w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Imaginima | E+ | Getty Images oil</figcaption></figure>



SINGAPORE, Jan 23 (Reuters) &#8211; Oil prices were little changed on Tuesday as traders weighed a host of conflicting supply and demand worries, from rising tensions in the Middle East to cold weather woes disrupting production in the United States.



Brent crude futures added 2 cents to $80.08 a barrel by 0702 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures (WTI) climbed 3 cent to $74.79 a barrel.



Both the contracts had settled about 2% higher on Monday, as a Ukrainian drone strike on Novatek&#8217;s Ust-Luga fuel export terminal raised supply concerns and drove up prices. Analysts say Novatek is likely to resume large-scale operations there within weeks.



While damage to loading berths at the Ust-Luga terminal only &#8220;briefly impacted exports,&#8221; the move raises the prospect of the Russia-Ukraine war &#8220;moving into a new phase where parties target key energy infrastructure,&#8221; analysts at ANZ Research said in a note.



In the Middle East, U.S. and British forces have also carried out a fresh round of strikes targeting a Houthi underground storage site and missile and surveillance capabilities used by the Iran-aligned Houthi group.



The attacks by the Houthis on vessels in and around the Red Sea region have disrupted global shipping and stoked fears of inflation. The group has said their attacks are in solidarity with Palestinians as Israel strikes Gaza.



Some analysts also remained bullish on near-term market fundamentals because of these ongoing conflicts.



&#8220;Without any recession concerns, the impact of extreme weather on U.S. crude oil production and the escalation of geopolitical conflicts still support oil prices,&#8221; said CMC Markets&#8217; Shanghai-based analyst Leon Li.



In the U.S., 20% of North Dakota&#8217;s oil output remained shut in due to extreme cold and operational challenges, the state&#8217;s pipeline authority said on Monday.



Capping price gains, however, are concerns over China&#8217;s sputtering economic recovery, which is raising worries about global oil demand given the Asian giant is the world&#8217;s biggest crude oil importer.



Chinese policymakers have rolled out a raft of measures to shore up the economy but domestic consumption remains tepid, leaving oil traders on edge about demand prospects.



&#8220;Given conflicting fundamental factors right now in WTI crude (market), the momentum factor is likely to be the main driver in setting the stage for oil prices in the short term,&#8221; said OANDA senior markets analyst Kelvin Wong.



WTI crude prices managed to close above their 50-day moving average on Monday for the first time since Oct. 24 last year. The bullish close followed a similar daily close above the 20-day moving average last Thursday, he added.



A Reuters poll showing that U.S. crude oil inventories were forecast to fall by about 3 million barrels in the week to Jan. 19 also limited price weakness. Distillate stockpiles were expected to drop last week, while gasoline inventories were set to rise. Official government data is expected to be out on Jan. 24.



(Reporting by Emily Chow; Editing by Shri Navaratnam and Kim Coghill)

107065218-1653293244892-gettyimages-1323151704-oil-pumps-and-rig-at-sunset

Oil steadies on mixed supply cues, cautious outlook on China

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="404" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/istock-172471634-941536-1611211252-820x404.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-400971" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/istock-172471634-941536-1611211252-820x404.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/istock-172471634-941536-1611211252-300x148.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/istock-172471634-941536-1611211252-768x379.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/istock-172471634-941536-1611211252.jpg 1458w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /></figure>



Gold prices could close the year as much as 10% above current levels on the back of potential interest rate cuts, UBS strategists said, despite declines at the start of 2024.



A UBS note on Friday described recent price moves as “minor” in the context of the precious metal’s 15% climb through 2023 and said the “power of the [Federal Reserve]’s policy pivot should not be underestimated.”



Bullion remains above the psychological level of $2,000 per ounce, the UBS strategists said, forecasting a rise to $2,250 per ounce by the end of the year, despite near-time volatility.



Analysts at Scotiabank retained a more cautious outlook, but revised their price guidance higher.&nbsp;In a Monday note, they&nbsp;said they had adopted higher gold and silver prices for this and next&nbsp;year, and moved their year-end gold forecast to $2,000 per ounce, from $1,900 per ounce, previously.



Gold prices can be impacted by factors including geopolitical instability and market uncertainty — which can boost the appeal of&nbsp;bullion as a “safe haven” asset — and interest rates, which can make higher-yielding investments more attractive when they are raised.



Markets are increasingly uncertain that the Fed will begin interest rate cuts in March. Current pricing drops the probability at around 48%, according to CME’s FedWatch tool, down from as high as 81% just over a week ago. That’s with two key releases on U.S. fourth-quarter economic growth and the personal consumption expenditures price index still to come this week.



Investors are also monitoring coming monetary policy meetings at the Bank of Japan on Tuesday and European Central Bank on Thursday.



Gold hit several record highs late last year and notched a record close of $2,078 per ounce, according to the World Gold Council. Analysts tied the rise to interest rate expectations and the global volatility stemming from the Israel-Hamas conflict.



Spot gold was down 0.26% to $2,024 at 1 p.m. London time on Monday.



Central banks have also been a major buyer of gold in 2022 and 2023, as they diversify their reserves.



That is on the back of an expectation for 100 basis points of Fed cuts, beginning in May, “putting pressure on the US dollar and real interest rates, which should spark fresh demand, particularly from exchange-traded gold funds,” according to the UBS note.



“Ongoing macro and elevated geopolitical risks continue to justify holding exposure to gold for hedging and diversification purposes, in our view,” UBS said.



— CNBC’s Jeff Cox contributed to this story

Gold ingots and coins

UBS sees a 10% spike for gold this year as rate cut speculation swirls

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="612" height="408" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/istockphoto-1076949610-612x612-1.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-400697" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/istockphoto-1076949610-612x612-1.jpg 612w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/istockphoto-1076949610-612x612-1-300x200.jpg 300w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 612px) 100vw, 612px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Double exposure of coin stack with city background and world map, financial graph, world map and global network business concept idea, element by NASA.</figcaption></figure>



Jan 22 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Emerging market stocks were dragged lower on Monday by concerns about China&#8217;s shaky economic recovery while currencies were subdued at the start of a week brimming with interest rate decisions from regional and major central banks.



MSCI&#8217;s index for emerging market equities&nbsp;.MSCIEF&nbsp;fell 0.6% by 0932 GMT following two straight days of gains. A measure of regional currencies&nbsp;.MIEM00000CUS&nbsp;was steady as the dollar struggled to hold on to recent gains.



After fading optimism around the likelihood of early U.S. interest rate cuts depressed sentiment towards risk-sensitive EM assets for most of last week, investors are on guard ahead of policy decisions from countries including South Africa and Turkey.



The European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan are also due to give their verdicts on rates this week.



China&#8217;s blue-chip index .CSI300 fell 1.6%, while the yuan CNY=CFXS held steady against the dollar after the People&#8217;s Bank of China (PBOC) kept benchmark lending rates unchanged at their monthly fixing.



China&#8217;s major state-owned banks moved to tighten yuan liquidity in the offshore foreign exchange market on Monday, four sources with knowledge of the matter said.



China&#8217;s disappointing economic growth &#8220;is a drag on overall EM sentiment&#8221;, said Jon Harrison, managing director of emerging market macro strategy at TS Lombard.



&#8220;Overall, we prefer LatAm (Latin America), especially Brazil. The ongoing monetary easing will raise consumer sentiment and boost equity markets, which remain undervalued despite the gains late last year.&#8221;



Stocks in Taiwan&nbsp;.TWII&nbsp;remained a bright spot, rising 0.8% as technology shares received a boost from optimism around artificial intelligence.



Such enthusiasm, sparked by Taiwanese chipmaker TSMC&#8217;s upbeat forecast had also pushed the benchmark U.S. S&amp;P 500 .SPX index to a record high on Friday.



The South African rand&nbsp;ZAR=&nbsp;and the Israeli shekel&nbsp;ILS=&nbsp;dipped 0.9% and 0.7% against the dollar respectively.



Saudi Arabia&#8217;s sovereign wealth fund, the Public Investment Fund (PIF), has given initial price guidance for its benchmark-sized, dollar-denominated triple-tranche bonds, a bank document showed on Monday.



An International Monetary Fund team is currently in Cairo to discuss Egypt&#8217;s $3 billion IMF loan and reform program, an IMF spokesperson said on Friday.



(Reporting by Amruta Khandekar, editing by Ed Osmond)

istockphoto-1076949610-612×612-1

Stocks fall, FX muted as central bank-heavy week looms

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="462" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107361731-17056776052024-01-19t151424z_1943492954_rc22l5arvbvj_rtrmadp_0_usa-stocks-820x462.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-448928" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107361731-17056776052024-01-19t151424z_1943492954_rc22l5arvbvj_rtrmadp_0_usa-stocks-820x462.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107361731-17056776052024-01-19t151424z_1943492954_rc22l5arvbvj_rtrmadp_0_usa-stocks-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107361731-17056776052024-01-19t151424z_1943492954_rc22l5arvbvj_rtrmadp_0_usa-stocks-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107361731-17056776052024-01-19t151424z_1943492954_rc22l5arvbvj_rtrmadp_0_usa-stocks-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107361731-17056776052024-01-19t151424z_1943492954_rc22l5arvbvj_rtrmadp_0_usa-stocks.jpeg 929w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., January 19, 2024.  Brendan Mcdermid | Reuters</figcaption></figure>



Markets have become less convinced that the Federal Reserve is ready to press the button on interest rate cuts, an issue that cuts at the heart of where the economy and stocks are headed.



Two big economic reports coming up this week could go a long way toward determining at least which way the central bank policymakers could lean — and how markets might react to a turn in monetary policy.



Investors will get their first look at the broad picture of fourth-quarter economic growth for 2023 when the Commerce Department releases its initial gross domestic product estimate on Thursday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones are expecting the total of all goods and services produced in the U.S. economy to have grown at a 1.7% pace for the final three months of 2023, which would be the slowest since the 0.6% decline in Q2 of 2022.



A day later, the Commerce Department will release the December reading on the personal consumption expenditures price index, a favorite Fed inflation gauge. The consensus expectation for core PCE prices, which exclude the volatile food and energy components, is 0.2% growth for the month and 3% for the full year.



Both data points should garner a lot of attention, particularly the inflation numbers, which have been trending towards the Fed’s 2% goal but aren’t there yet.



“That’s the thing that everybody should be watching to determine what the Fed’s rate path will end up being,” Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said during an interview Friday on CNBC. “It’s not about secret meetings or decisions. It’s fundamentally about the data and what will enable us to become less restrictive if we have clear evidence that we’re on the path to get” inflation back to target.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-lowered-rate-cut-outlook"><a></a>Lowered rate-cut outlook</h2>



The releases come amid a market snapback about where the Fed is heading.



As of Friday afternoon, trading in the fed funds futures market equated to virtually no chance the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee will cut at its Jan. 30-31 meeting, according to CME Group data as indicated through its FedWatch Tool. That’s nothing new, but the odds for a cut at the March meeting fell to 47.2%, a steep slide from 81% just a week ago.



Along with that, traders have taken one expected cut off the table, reducing the outlook for easing to five quarter percentage point decreases from six previously.



The change in sentiment followed data showing a stronger-than-expected 0.6% growth in consumer spending for December and initial jobless claims falling to their lowest weekly level since September 2022. On top of that, several of Goolsbee’s colleagues, including Governor Christopher Waller, New York Fed President John Williams and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, issued commentary indicating that at the very least they are in no hurry to cut even if the hikes are probably done.



“I don’t like tying my hands, and we still have weeks of data,” Goolsbee said. “Let’s take the long view. If we continue to make surprising progress faster than was forecast on inflation, then we have to take that into account in determining the level of restrictiveness.”



Goolsbee noted that one particular area of focus for him will be housing inflation.



The December consumer price index report indicated that shelter inflation, which accounts for about one-third of the weighting in the CPI, rose 6.2% from a year ago, well ahead of a pace consistent with 2% inflation.



However, other measures tell a different story.



A new Labor Department reading known as the New Tenant Rent Index, indicates a lower path ahead for housing inflation. The index, which measures prices for new leases that tenants sign, showed a 4.6% decline in the fourth quarter of 2023 from a year ago and more than double that quarterly.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a></a>Watching the data, and other factors</h2>



“In the very near term, we think the inflation data will cooperate with the Fed’s dovish plans,” Citigroup economist Andrew Hollenhorst said in a client note.



However, Citi foresees inflation as stubborn and likely to delay the first cut until at least June.



While it’s unclear how much difference the timing makes, or how important it is if the Fed only cuts four or five times compared to the more ambitious market expectations, market outcomes have seem linked to the expectations for monetary policy.



There are plenty of factors that change the outlook in both directions — a continued rally in the stock market might worry the Fed about more inflation in the pipeline, as could an acceleration in geopolitical tensions and stronger-than-expected economic growth.



“By keeping the potential alive for inflation to turn up, these economic and geopolitical developments could put upward pressure on both short-term rates and long-term yields,” Komal Sri-Kumar, president of Sri-Kumar Global Strategies, said Saturday in his weekly market note.



“Could the Federal Reserve be forced to raise the Federal Funds rate as its next move rather than cut it?” he added. “An intriguing thought. Don’t be surprised if there is more discussion along these lines in coming months.”

107361731-17056776052024-01-19t151424z_1943492954_rc22l5arvbvj_rtrmadp_0_usa-stocks

Two important events this week could determine the future of Fed rate policy

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/LUTBM54MQRKNBIUOS72UAOZR5M-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-448115" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/LUTBM54MQRKNBIUOS72UAOZR5M-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/LUTBM54MQRKNBIUOS72UAOZR5M-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/LUTBM54MQRKNBIUOS72UAOZR5M-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/LUTBM54MQRKNBIUOS72UAOZR5M-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/LUTBM54MQRKNBIUOS72UAOZR5M-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/LUTBM54MQRKNBIUOS72UAOZR5M-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Tourists walk past the glass Pyramid of the Louvre Museum in Paris, France, January 15, 2024. REUTERS/Sarah Meyssonnier/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



MADRID, Jan 19 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Global tourism is set to fully recover from the pandemic in 2024 as international tourist arrivals will likely be 2% more numerous than in 2019, the United Nations&#8217; World Tourism Organisation said on Friday.



Increased global air connectivity and a strong recovery of Asian markets will allow a full rebound of tourism activities worldwide this year, even though geopolitical instability in the Middle East and elsewhere constitutes a risk for the industry as it affects would-be travellers&#8217; confidence, the UN tourism body said.



In 2023, travel demand in Europe and Africa almost reached pre-pandemic levels, and surpassed them in the Middle East.



Some destinations, such as Mediterranean Europe, the Caribbean and the Central American and North African sub-regions, exceeded their 2019 international tourism arrivals last year.



The organization expects the Chinese market to soar in 2024, after the government allowed visa-free travel for citizens of France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain and Malaysia until 30 November 2024. Flight capacity into and out of China is set to increase this year.



In 2023, international tourism ended at 88% of pre-pandemic levels, with an estimated 1.3 billion international travellers.



The overall industry contribution to the global economy in 2023 was $3.3 trillion, according to the report.



(Reporting by Corina Pons, editing by Inti Landauro)

Tourists at the Louvre Museum in Paris

United Nations sees international tourism fully recovering in 2024

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/Investment-management-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-424734" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/Investment-management-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/Investment-management-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/Investment-management-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/Investment-management-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/Investment-management.jpg 1200w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Stock</figcaption></figure>



Jan 18 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Emerging market stocks rebounded on Thursday after upbeat earnings from Taiwanese chipmaker TSMC lifted technology shares across Asia while currencies also edged higher against a subdued dollar as investors eyed the U.S. interest rate path.



MSCI&#8217;s index for emerging market equities&nbsp;.MSCIEF&nbsp;climbed 0.5% by 0926 GMT, with China&#8217;s blue-chip shares&nbsp;.CSI300&nbsp;bouncing off a five-year low.



Aiding sentiment towards technology stocks across the globe, the world&#8217;s largest contract chipmaker TSMC2330.TW beat quarterly profit estimates and projected upwards of 20% revenue growth this year.



Hong Kong&#8217;s technology shares&nbsp;.HSTECH&nbsp;rose 0.5%, while shares of South Korean chipmakers Samsung Electronics&nbsp;005930.KS&nbsp;and SK Hynix&nbsp;000660.KS&nbsp;gained 1.0% and 4.0%, respectively.



A gauge of EM currencies&nbsp;.MIEM00000CUS&nbsp;inched 0.2% higher against a muted dollar&nbsp;=USD.



EM stocks and currencies&nbsp;fell in the past three sessions&nbsp;while the dollar rallied after a slew of global central bankers pushed back against expectations of early interest rate cuts this year.



On Thursday, the South African rand&nbsp;ZAR=&nbsp;rose 0.4% against the dollar and regional stocks&nbsp;.JTOPI&nbsp;also added 1.1%.



The South Korean won&nbsp;KRW=&nbsp;outperformed other Asian currencies, rising 0.6%, while the Chinese yuan&nbsp;CNY=CFXS&nbsp;hovered close to a near two-month low.



&#8220;We expect yuan to underperform vs Asia FX and other EM blocs this year,&#8221; Alex Loo, FX and macro strategist at TD Securities, said in a note.



&#8220;China&#8217;s murky economic outlook isn&#8217;t favourable for the yuan,&#8221; said Loo, adding equities could see a further hit if authorities don&#8217;t step up intervention.



Pakistan&#8217;s international bonds fell after the foreign ministry said it conducted strikes inside Iran on Thursday, two days after Tehran said it had attacked the bases of another group within Pakistani territory. The country&#8217;s benchmark stock index .KSE slipped 0.9%.



Kenya intends to go to international bond markets as soon as the market situation allows, its finance minister and central bank governor said, a day after the East African nation secured the International Monetary Fund&#8217;s approval for a $941 million lending.



The Kenyan shilling&nbsp;KES=&nbsp;was down 0.5%, hitting fresh record lows against the dollar.



The Russian rouble RUBUTSTN=MCX held steady at around the 88 to the dollar mark.



(Reporting by Amruta Khandekar; Editing by Eileen Soreng)

Investment-management

Stocks recover on technology boost, FX edges higher

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/TNRG4PXBPVITBOJQGOF6IVJBFE-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-447799" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/TNRG4PXBPVITBOJQGOF6IVJBFE-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/TNRG4PXBPVITBOJQGOF6IVJBFE-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/TNRG4PXBPVITBOJQGOF6IVJBFE-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/TNRG4PXBPVITBOJQGOF6IVJBFE-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/TNRG4PXBPVITBOJQGOF6IVJBFE-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/TNRG4PXBPVITBOJQGOF6IVJBFE.jpg 1920w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: A container ship is seen near Suez Canal Bridge which is known as the &#8220;Peace Bridge&#8221; following a Suez Canal tugboat sinking yesterday after colliding with a Hong Kong-flagged LPG tanker in the waterway of the Suez Canal, Egypt, August 6, 2023. Suez Canal Authority/Handout via REUTERS THIS IMAGE HAS BEEN SUPPLIED BY A THIRD PARTY/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



SINGAPORE/CAPE TOWN/LONDON, Jan 18 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;The re-routing of a growing number of ships around Africa to avoid potential attacks in the Red Sea is altering refueling patterns and boosting demand for bunker fuel at far-flung ports, from the Mauritius to South Africa to the Canary Islands.



Ships are also expected to top up more at Singapore and Rotterdam, the two busiest bunkering ports and where fuel is competitively priced, as they try to hedge against uncertainty over route changes, traders and analysts said.



Attacks by Yemen&#8217;s Houthi militia on merchant ships in the Red Sea and retaliatory U.S. strikes have ratcheted-up tensions in the Middle East as the Gaza war rages on.



The attacks by the Iran-allied Houthis, which they say are in support of Palestinians, target a route that accounts for about 15% of the world&#8217;s shipping traffic and acts as a vital conduit between Europe and Asia.



Hundreds of large vessels have rerouted around the southern tip of Africa, adding 10-14 days of travel, to avoid drone and missile attacks by the Houthis.



&#8220;Ships are diverting away from the Red Sea and re-routing around the coast of South and West Africa – this increased traffic has created huge congestion in bunkering ports around Africa and placed significant pressure on port infrastructure,&#8221; John A. Bassadone, founder and CEO of independent bunker supplier Peninsula, told Reuters.



Bunker fuel demand has risen at ports including Mauritius&#8217; Port Louis, Gibraltar and ports in the Canary Islands and South Africa, said traders and industry sources, with sales jumping in Cape Town and Durban.



Prices of low-sulphur bunker fuel delivered at Cape Town have jumped 15% to almost $800 per metric ton since mid-November when the attacks started, data from bunker supplier Integr8 Fuels showed.



&#8220;We have seen an increase in bunker demand and fixtures in South Africa, particularly for bunker-only vessels lately,&#8221; said Philip Wang Balke, a senior bunker trader for Africa at Integr8, adding that supply is tightening as more shipowners and operators buy fuel in advance to ensure sufficient supplies.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-tankers-and-bulkers">TANKERS AND BULKERS</h2>



Container ships were first to divert away from the Red Sea, and now oil tankers and dry bulk carriers are following suit, diverting bunker demand to West Mediterranean ports at the expense of East Mediterranean, industry sources said.



&#8220;We are anticipating increased demand in Las Palmas and Western Mediterranean ports as it&#8217;s likely the African ports will exceed capacity,&#8221; Peninsula&#8217;s Bassadone added.



Singapore and Rotterdam have yet to see a demand surge, though buying is poised to pick up in the next few weeks as ships lift more fuel at competitive prices, traders said.



&#8220;If the vessels are prone to higher ton-mileage or uncertainties, they are likely to fill up their tanks in case they ended up at expensive ports, and they can save a bit by buying less due to the extras they bought in Singapore,&#8221; said an Asia-based bunkering manager.



Spot premiums for prompt low-sulphur bunker fuel delivered at Singapore rose to $25 to $30 a metric ton above cargo quotes in mid-January, climbing from about $20 in early January, said industry sources.



(Reporting by Jeslyn Lerh and Florence Tan in Singapore, Wendell Roelf in Cape Town and Robert Harvey in London; Editing by Tony Munroe and Miral Fahmy)

FILE PHOTO: Container ships on Suez Canal

Red Sea ship diversions boost bunker demand, prices in Africa, Mediterranean

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="612" height="350" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/istockphoto-1040865674-612x612-1.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-400879" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/istockphoto-1040865674-612x612-1.jpg 612w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/istockphoto-1040865674-612x612-1-300x172.jpg 300w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 612px) 100vw, 612px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Stock market report. 3d illustration</figcaption></figure>



Jan 17 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Assets across emerging markets took a beating on Wednesday, with equities hitting a two-month low following a raft of dismal economic data from China and&nbsp;reduced bets of interest rate cuts in the U.S.



MSCI&#8217;s index for emerging market (EM) equities&nbsp;.MSCIEF&nbsp;fell 2% by 0923 GMT, on track for its biggest one-day percentage drop since August last year.



Currencies in the region&nbsp;.MIEM00000CUS&nbsp;slid 0.4% while the dollar&nbsp;=USD&nbsp;hovered close to a one-month high.



EM assets were in the red for the third straight day as hawkish comments from top policymakers this week dampened expectations of early rate cuts from global central banks.



Most Asian equities fell, with China&#8217;s blue-chip shares&nbsp;.CSI300&nbsp;hitting their lowest since early 2019 while Hong Kong shares&nbsp;.HSI&nbsp;dropped 3.7% to their lowest since November 2022.



Data showed China&#8217;s economy grew 5.2% in the fourth quarter, missing analysts&#8217; expectations and signalling a patchy recovery in the world&#8217;s second-largest economy. A separate report also pointed to prolonged property sector woes in the country.



&#8220;The key question is what Beijing can do to improve sentiment amongst consumers and boost domestic demand at the time when their main trading partners &#8211; including Eurozone &#8211; are relatively weak and demand from the U.S. could soften as well,&#8221; said Piotr Matys, senior FX analyst at In Touch Capital Markets.



India&#8217;s blue-chip NSE Nifty 50 .NSEI was dragged 1.9% lower after bleak quarterly results from top private lender HDFC Bank.



In South Africa, Johannesburg&#8217;s Top-40&nbsp;.JTOPI&nbsp;index dropped 1.5%,&nbsp;weighed down by weakness in mining stocks as concerns around demand from China hit metal prices.



The rand&nbsp;ZAR=&nbsp;slipped 0.6% to trade at about 19.0874 to the dollar following an over 1% drop in the previous session.



The Indonesian rupiah IDR= held on to declines and was last down 0.3% against the dollar after the country&#8217;s central bank kept policy rates steady on Wednesday, seeking to stabilise the currency and keep inflation within target.



Hungary&#8217;s forint EURHUF= dropped 0.5% against the euro as Deputy Governor Barnabas Virag said the central bank will cut interest rates between 6% and 7% by the middle of the year.



(Reporting by Amruta Khandekar; Editing by Tasim Zahid)

Stock market report. 3d illustration

Stocks, FX fall for third day on bleak China data, rate jitters

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="612" height="357" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/istockphoto-1030878162-612x612-1.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-400669" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/istockphoto-1030878162-612x612-1.jpg 612w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/istockphoto-1030878162-612x612-1-300x175.jpg 300w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 612px) 100vw, 612px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">World map with charts and graphs as symbols of global finance</figcaption></figure>



Jan 12 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Emerging markets&#8217; assets were range-bound on Friday after a hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation report did not discourage investors from early rate cut bets, while markets also kept a watch on rising tensions in the Middle East.



The MSCI&#8217;s gauge of emerging market stocks&nbsp;.MSCIEF&nbsp;was up 0.1% at 0920 GMT, while a basket of currencies&nbsp;.MIEM00000CUS&nbsp;ticked up 0.1% against a steady dollar.



For the week, the broader stocks index is on track to lose 0.6%, extending its weak start to the New Year.



Oil prices rose 2% on Friday, even as market participants closely watch the escalating tensions in the Middle East after the United States and Britain carried out air and sea strikes on Houthi military targets in Yemen in response to attacks by the Iran-backed group on shipping in the Red Sea.



Data on Thursday showed U.S. consumer price index (CPI) rose 3.4% on an annual basis in December compared with forecasts of a 3.2% rise, suggesting it was probably too early for the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates.



Core inflation, which excludes volatile items like food and energy, slipped on a yearly basis.



Yet, traders are betting on a 68.1% probability for the Fed to cut rates in March, according to the CME FedWatch tool.



&#8220;Rate expectations were not moved by slightly hotter-than-expected U.S. CPI, and support for the dollar has mostly come through the risk-sentiment channel,&#8221; ING economists wrote in a note.



&#8220;Range-bound trading may persist despite conditions for a stronger dollar,&#8221; they added.



The dollar index&nbsp;=USD&nbsp;and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yields&nbsp;US10YT=RRrallied initially after the CPI readings but ended lower on Thursday.



In Europe, the Hungarian forint EURHUF= slipped 0.1% after inflation in December was cooler-than-expected on an annual basis.



Czech&#8217;s crown EURCZK= gained 0.3% after the country&#8217;s current account showed a surplus of 43.52 billion crowns ($1.94 billion) in November, while domestic retail sales also rose on an annual basis.



The Russian rouble RUBUTSTN=MCX hit over seven-week highs and strengthened past 88 against the dollar, boosted by the state&#8217;s new foreign currency interventions plan and higher oil prices after Western strikes against Houthi military targets in Yemen. RU/RUB



The rouble was last seen at 88.0675, after hitting a high of 87.9675.



Across Asia, both China&#8217;s blue-chip index&nbsp;.CSI300&nbsp;and Hong Kong shares&nbsp;.HSIfell 0.4% each after mixed economic data.



China&#8217;s exports grew 2.3% in December from a year earlier, while consumer prices declined for a third month in December highlighting persistent deflationary pressures in an economy struggling to mount a solid recovery.



Turkey&#8217;s lira TRYTOM=D3 weakened and hovered around 30 to the dollar, while the country&#8217;s current account balance turned to a larger-than-expected deficit of $2.72 billion in November after two months of surpluses, central bank data showed.



(Reporting by Siddarth S in Bengaluru; Editing by Krishna Chandra Eluri)

World map with charts and graphs as symbols of global finance

Assets tread water after US CPI data; stocks set for weekly declines

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Stock-value-rising-and-falling-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-404443" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Stock-value-rising-and-falling-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Stock-value-rising-and-falling-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Stock-value-rising-and-falling-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Stock-value-rising-and-falling.jpg 1254w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Macro view of a screen of trading terminal with abstract financial graph and digits. Trading and forex concept. 3D Rendering</figcaption></figure>



Jan 11 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Emerging markets assets&nbsp;crept&nbsp;higher on Thursday ahead of U.S. inflation data that investors are&nbsp;watching closely for cues to interest rate cut path in the world&#8217;s largest economy,&nbsp;while the Turkish lira breached the 30-to-the-dollar mark, touching fresh lows.



The MSCI&#8217;s gauge of emerging market stocks&nbsp;.MSCIEF&nbsp;advanced 0.6% at 0934 GMT, while a basket of currencies&nbsp;.MIEM00000CUS&nbsp;ticked up 0.1% against a weak U.S. dollar. Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields were also seen slightly lower.



If gains hold, both the indexes are set for&nbsp;their&nbsp;best session&nbsp;this year.



Market participants will keep a sharp watch on U.S. consumer prices index(CPI) data, due later in the day, where core CPI in December is expected to remain unchanged at 0.3% from the month before, while on an annual basis, it is&nbsp;likely&nbsp;to slow to 3.8% from 4% in November, a Reuters poll showed.



&#8220;Unless there is a significant upside surprise in today&#8217;s CPI report today, the slowing inflation trend should encourage the Fed to begin cutting rates, giving it more confidence that inflation is falling back towards their target,&#8221; Lee Hardman, currency analyst at MUFG, said in a note.



Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said Wednesday that it’s still too soon to call for rate cuts as the central bank still has some distance to cover before inflation hits the Fed&#8217;s 2% target.



Turkey&#8217;s lira&nbsp;TRYTOM=D3&nbsp;hit a new record low beyond 30.0 to the dollar and was last trading at 30.0050.



The lira lost more than a third of its value last year and more than 80% in the previous five years, having been battered by a series of past rate cuts in the face of soaring inflation.



Wall Street bank JPMorgan revised its target for the lira by year-end to about 36 to the dollar from 34 previously, saying it maintained a &#8220;bullish view&#8221; on the currency.



Turkey&#8217;s main banking stock index&nbsp;.XBANK&nbsp;gained 0.5%, touching a fresh record high.



Northward, the Russian rouble strengthened to a six-week high against the dollar, passing the 89 threshold it has been flirting with this week, supported by increased supply of foreign currency after Russia&#8217;s New Year holidays.



The rouble&nbsp;RUBUTSTN=MCX&nbsp;was last seen at 88.7875.



In Europe, Czech&#8217;s crown EURCZK= fell 0.3% against the euro after the domestic annual inflation rate in December came in cooler than expected.



Across Asia, most stocks and currencies were in the green, boosting the broader indexes.



JPMorgan said on Wednesday it was excluding Egypt from its GBI-EM emerging market government bond index series effective Jan. 31.



(Reporting by Siddarth S in Bengaluru; Editing by Tasim Zahid)

Macro view of a screen of trading terminal with abstract financial graph and digits. Trading and forex concept. 3D Rendering

Assets gain ahead of U.S. CPI data; Turkish lira breaches 30 per dollar mark

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="517" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/GNZ4EKIZHBJMHAHGTKTLUHIQ54-820x517.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-415106" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/GNZ4EKIZHBJMHAHGTKTLUHIQ54-820x517.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/GNZ4EKIZHBJMHAHGTKTLUHIQ54-300x189.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/GNZ4EKIZHBJMHAHGTKTLUHIQ54-143x90.jpg 143w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/GNZ4EKIZHBJMHAHGTKTLUHIQ54-768x484.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/GNZ4EKIZHBJMHAHGTKTLUHIQ54.jpg 1200w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">A 3D-printed oil pump jack is seen in front of displayed OPEC logo in this illustration picture, April 14, 2020. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



LONDON, Jan 5 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;OPEC DECEMBER OIL OUTPUT RISES BY 70,000 BPD FROM NOVEMBER TO 27.88 MILLION BPD AHEAD OF 2024 CUTS, ANGOLA EXIT &#8211; REUTERS SURVEY



OPEC oil output rose in December, a Reuters survey found on Friday, as increases in Iraq, Angola and Nigeria offset ongoing cuts by Saudi Arabia and other members of the wider OPEC+ alliance to support the market.



The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries pumped 27.88 million barrels per day (bpd) last month, the survey found, up 70,000 bpd from November. Output is down more than 1 million bpd from the same month a year ago.&nbsp;PRODN-TOTAL



The boost comes ahead of further OPEC+ cuts in 2024 and Angola&#8217;s exit from OPEC, which are set to lower January output and market share. OPEC&#8217;s market share has already been falling due to output restraint and the departure of some members.



In December, the biggest increases of 60,000 bpd came from Iraq and Angola, which both boosted exports, the survey found.



Nigeria also shipped more crude abroad without, as yet, beginning oil products output at its new Dangote refinery.



The Reuters survey, which aims to track supply to the market, is based on shipping data provided by external sources, Refinitiv Eikon flows data, information from companies that track flows such as Petro-Logistics and Kpler and information provided by sources at oil companies, OPEC and consultants.



(Additional reporting by Ahmad Ghaddar, Editing by Louise Heavens)

GNZ4EKIZHBJMHAHGTKTLUHIQ54

OPEC December oil output rises before new cuts, Angola exit – Reuters survey

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="525" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/QJKRTGY7Z5K7ZMOCVNCXH6DJ6I-820x525.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-442772" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/QJKRTGY7Z5K7ZMOCVNCXH6DJ6I-820x525.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/QJKRTGY7Z5K7ZMOCVNCXH6DJ6I-300x192.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/QJKRTGY7Z5K7ZMOCVNCXH6DJ6I-141x90.jpg 141w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/QJKRTGY7Z5K7ZMOCVNCXH6DJ6I-768x491.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/QJKRTGY7Z5K7ZMOCVNCXH6DJ6I-1536x983.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/QJKRTGY7Z5K7ZMOCVNCXH6DJ6I-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: A worker sells eggs to a customer at a spaza shop in Thembisa, on the East Rand, in South Africa, August 2, 2023. REUTERS/Siphiwe Sibeko</figcaption></figure>



JOHANNESBURG, Jan 4 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;South African private sector activity shrank in December as companies signalled a greater impact on business amid the gridlock problems afflicting the country&#8217;s ports, a survey showed on Thursday.



The S&amp;P Global South Africa Purchasing Managers&#8217; Index (PMI) fell to 49.0 in December from 50.0 in November. A reading above 50 indicates growth in activity.



Supply chains, inventories, output and demand were all hit by the port crisis in Durban, with delivery times lengthening at the sharpest rate in close to two years, the survey showed.



&#8220;The port gridlock is likely to further dent the economy at the start of 2024 as businesses face greater shortfalls in input supply,&#8221; said David Owen, senior economist at S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence.



Rotational power cuts implemented by power utility Eskom are also expected to remain an issue after electricity outages reportedly hit output and sales in December, he added.



Equipment shortages and maintenance backlogs after years of underinvestment have meant South African state-owned logistics company Transnet has struggled to provide adequate freight rail and port services in the country.



(Reporting by Bhargav Acharya; Editing by Hugh Lawson)

A worker sells eggs to a customer at a spaza shop

South Africa business activity shrinks in Dec amid port gridlock -PMI

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/LQEFKEUAZZKWDEXBE2KZ3LRCZM-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-442754" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/LQEFKEUAZZKWDEXBE2KZ3LRCZM-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/LQEFKEUAZZKWDEXBE2KZ3LRCZM-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/LQEFKEUAZZKWDEXBE2KZ3LRCZM-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/LQEFKEUAZZKWDEXBE2KZ3LRCZM-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/LQEFKEUAZZKWDEXBE2KZ3LRCZM-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/LQEFKEUAZZKWDEXBE2KZ3LRCZM-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: Commuters pass by as posters of an election candidate hang on the street ahead of the general election in Dhaka, Bangladesh, January 2, 2024. REUTERS/Mohammad Ponir Hossain/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



LONDON, (Reuters) &#8211; Emerging markets are gearing up for their biggest election year in decades, with investors focused on fiscal discipline and populist shifts that could stir markets and blur the outlook for some key economies.



Countries home to more than half the world&#8217;s population and accounting for more than 60% of global economic output go to the polls in 2024.



The calendar is bookended by votes in Taiwan in January &#8211; a high-stakes geopolitical event &#8211; and in sovereign defaulter Ghana in December, as the country strives to emerge from a debt crunch.



&#8220;This is an election year like we have never seen before. It really is an extraordinary year,&#8221; said David Lubin, associate fellow at think tank Chatham House and Citi&#8217;s former head of emerging market economics.



&#8220;Recent elections in Argentina and Poland have reminded us that elections do produce surprises,&#8221; Lubin added.



The elections frenzy comes against a backdrop of sharply higher global borrowing rates &#8211; piling pressure on more fragile economies even though the prospect of interest rate cuts from the world&#8217;s big central banks is firmly on the horizon.



For investors, elections divide into three categories: Those where the outcome is rather obvious, such as Russia or Venezuela; those where it seems clear but the ballot is contested, for example India, Mexico or Indonesia; and those where there is genuine uncertainty, like in South Africa.



The 2023 polls in Argentina and Poland also served as reminders that governments due to face their electorates are more often than not prone to loosening the purse strings &#8211; a trend that can leave those who take over struggling to roll back the handouts.



Even when Argentina&#8217;s previous government ramped up spending between the first and second round of their vote, radical Javier Milei swept to power and embarked on a radical reform programme. In Poland, the surprise election win of the liberal, pro-EU Donald Tusk got the thumbs up from investors.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-open-wallets">OPEN WALLETS</h2>



Fiscal discipline is seen as key, especially following a series of external shocks ranging from COVID-19 to Russia&#8217;s war in Ukraine and a rise in global yields that has highlighted the need for countries to keep spending tightly controlled, said Yvette Babb, a portfolio manager at asset manager William Blair.



&#8220;There is very limited margin for populist &#8211; often times meaning &#8216;expensive&#8217; &#8211; policy stances across emerging markets,&#8221; said Babb. &#8220;In many of our markets, elections victories have historically been tied to fiscal stances and populist policy. For this to continue it would be very controversial.&#8221;



Morgan Stanley flagged fiscal risks from pre-election spending as a key driver this year for South Africa, Romania, Russia, El Salvador, Dominican Republic and Uruguay.



The ramifications could be felt well beyond this year. The Institute of International Finance (IIF) said the &#8220;tsunami&#8221; of 2024 elections could add to an already record glut of global debt estimated to have hit $310 trillion by the end of 2023.



&#8220;A sudden increase in government spending during this global elections cycle could further elevate interest (payments) for many countries,&#8221; warned Emre Tiftik, Director of Sustainable Research at the IIF, adding that this could create further volatility in markets.



Some fear this could spur a resurgence of so-called bond vigilantes, investors who punish profligate governments by selling their bonds, driving yields higher.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-currency-shivers">CURRENCY SHIVERS</h2>



Analysts at Citi, who also warn that the looming emerging markets election cycle might see &#8220;less policy discipline than investors would like&#8221; &#8211; have studied the short-term effects markets might have to contend with.



While some votes are bound to generate more volatility than others, currency markets are often the first to feel election nerves, especially in Latin America, according to Citi strategist Dirk Willer.



He points to a reliable pattern for Mexico&#8217;s peso that sees the currency weakening in the lead-up to the vote only to strengthen on the emergence of some kind of certainty once the election result seems reasonably established. Latin America&#8217;s second-largest economy is scheduled to hold elections on June 2 with the incumbent party&#8217;s candidate enjoying a healthy lead in opinion polls.



Evidence of the heavy election cycle shaping investment flows to equities already emerged in 2023, said Karim Chedid, head of EMEA iShares investment strategy at BlackRock.



&#8220;We are seeing an evolution of the EM trade from broad to more granular which I am keeping on my radar in 2024 because of the heavy election calendar,&#8221; said Chedid, singling out Mexico but also India.



The world&#8217;s most populous country is set to hold elections in April or May, with self-styled strong man Narendra Modi expected to win a third term as prime minister.



(Reporting by Karin Strohecker, additional reporting by Libby George and Jorgelina do Rosario, graphics by Sumanta Sen and Marc Jones, Editing by Hugh Lawson)

FILE PHOTO: Commuters pass by as posters of an election candidate hang on the street ahead of the general election in Dhaka

Emerging markets brace for wave of elections with fiscal discipline at stake

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="461" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107352936-1704115855740-gettyimages-1460414638-vcg111420025727-820x461.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-442452" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107352936-1704115855740-gettyimages-1460414638-vcg111420025727-820x461.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107352936-1704115855740-gettyimages-1460414638-vcg111420025727-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107352936-1704115855740-gettyimages-1460414638-vcg111420025727-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107352936-1704115855740-gettyimages-1460414638-vcg111420025727-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107352936-1704115855740-gettyimages-1460414638-vcg111420025727-1536x864.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107352936-1704115855740-gettyimages-1460414638-vcg111420025727.jpeg 1920w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">A worker tying copper wire rods before loading them onto a truck in Huai’an, Jiangsu Province of China. Vcg | Visual China Group | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



Copper prices are set to soar more than 75% over the next two years amid mining supply disruptions and higher demand for the metal, fueled by the push for renewable energy.&nbsp;



Rising demand driven by the green energy transition and a likely decline in the U.S. dollar in the second half of 2024 will push copper prices higher, according to a report by BMI, a Fitch Solutions research unit.



Markets are banking on the U.S. Federal Reserve to cut rates this year which will weaken the dollar and in turn make the greenback-priced copper more attractive to foreign buyers.



“The positive view for copper is more on macro factors,” Bank of America Securities’ head of Asia -Pacific basic materials, Matty Zhao, told CNBC, citing likely Fed rate cuts and a weaker U.S. dollar.



Additionally, at the recent COP28 climate change conference, more than 60 countries backed a plan to triple global renewable energy capacity by 2030, a move that Citibank says “would be extremely bullish for copper.”



In a December report, the investment bank forecast that the higher renewable energy targets would boost copper demand by extra 4.2 million tons by 2030.



This would potentially push copper prices to $15,000 a ton in 2025, the report added, way higher than the record peak of $10,730 per ton scaled in March last year.



“This assumes a very soft landing in the U.S. and Europe, an earlier global growth recovery, significant China easing,” Citi analysts said, while also emphasizing on continued investments in the energy transition sector.&nbsp;



A growing economy tends to boost demand for copper, which is used in electrical equipment and industrial machinery. The metal’s demand is considered a proxy for economic health.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-low-supply-high-demand"><a></a>Low supply, high demand</h2>



Copper on the London Metal Exchange was last trading at $8,559 a ton.



The base metal is a linchpin in the energy transition ecosystem, and is integral to manufacturing electric vehicles, power grids and wind turbines.



Other analysts see a bullish run for copper due to mining disruptions, with Goldman Sachs expecting a deficit of over half a million tons in 2024.



Last November, First Quantum Minerals halted production at the Cobre Panamá, one of the world’s largest copper mines, following a Supreme Court ruling and nationwide protests over environmental concerns. Anglo American, a major producer, said it would cut copper output in 2024 and 2025 as it seeks to cut costs.



“The supply cuts reinforce our view that the copper market is entering a period of much clearer tightening,” wrote Goldman’s analysts, who see copper prices hitting $10,000 per ton within the year, and much higher in 2025.



The winners of the copper rush will be mainly Chile and Peru, BMI estimates. Both countries have large reserves of green transition minerals such as lithium and copper that are poised to benefit from increased investment and higher export demand. Chile holds around 21% of global copper reserves.



“Our confidence that copper substantially re-rates into 2025 [of $15,000 per ton average] is now substantially higher,” Goldman&nbsp;said.



Lower supply also means that new copper smelters coming online will have a shortage of concentrates to work with, said S&amp;P Global’s Senior Copper Analyst Wang Ruilin.&nbsp;



Copper ores are extracted from the earth and then converted into copper concentrates. From there they are sent to smelters to be purified into refined copper, which sets the benchmark LME price.



“Copper smelters will see a supply shortage of concentrate starting in 2024, and the forecast deficits in the concentrate market is expected to deepen in 2025–27,” she told CNBC via email.

107352936-1704115855740-gettyimages-1460414638-vcg111420025727

Copper could skyrocket over 75% to record highs by 2025 — brace for deficits, analysts say

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="615" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/DL5CS5S3DVPC7KEA5MAUSUW264-820x615.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-440448" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/DL5CS5S3DVPC7KEA5MAUSUW264-820x615.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/DL5CS5S3DVPC7KEA5MAUSUW264-300x225.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/DL5CS5S3DVPC7KEA5MAUSUW264-120x90.jpg 120w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/DL5CS5S3DVPC7KEA5MAUSUW264-768x576.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/DL5CS5S3DVPC7KEA5MAUSUW264-1536x1152.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/DL5CS5S3DVPC7KEA5MAUSUW264-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: United Arab Emirates Minister of State for Foreign Trade Thani Al Zeyoudi gestures during an interview with Reuters in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, June 30, 2022. REUTERS/Abdel Hadi Ramahi</figcaption></figure>



DUBAI, Dec 28 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;The United Arab Emirates has completed negotiations for a bilateral trade agreement with the Republic of Congo, the second such deal announced with an African state in a week.



&#8220;The breadth of the UAE&#8217;s trade network continues to broaden as we conclude negotiations toward a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement with the Republic of Congo-Brazzaville &#8211; a thriving economy in West-Central Africa and valued trade and investment partner,&#8221; Thani Al Zeyoudi, UAE trade minister posted on X, formerly Twitter.



Since 2021, the UAE has initiated a raft of bilateral trade, investment and cooperation deals on its own &#8211; called Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreements &#8211; to bolster efforts aimed at diversifying income sources and economic sectors.



Last week, the UAE, a major global oil exporter and OPEC member, completed talks for a trade deal with Mauritius, its first with an African country.



(Reporting by Jana Choukeir; writing by Rachna Uppal; editing by Miral Fahmy)

United Arab Emirates Minister of State for Foreign Trade Thani Al Zeyoudi

UAE concludes trade talks with Republic of Congo

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="517" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/GNZ4EKIZHBJMHAHGTKTLUHIQ54-820x517.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-415106" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/GNZ4EKIZHBJMHAHGTKTLUHIQ54-820x517.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/GNZ4EKIZHBJMHAHGTKTLUHIQ54-300x189.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/GNZ4EKIZHBJMHAHGTKTLUHIQ54-143x90.jpg 143w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/GNZ4EKIZHBJMHAHGTKTLUHIQ54-768x484.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/GNZ4EKIZHBJMHAHGTKTLUHIQ54.jpg 1200w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">A 3D-printed oil pump jack is seen in front of displayed OPEC logo in this illustration picture, April 14, 2020. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



LONDON, Dec 21 (Reuters) &#8211; Angola has said it is leaving the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) with effect from Jan. 1 2024, after exits from Ecuador in 2020 and Qatar in 2019.



Angola, which joined OPEC in 2007, produces about 1.1 million barrels per day, compared with 28 million bpd for the whole group.



Here are details on OPEC members, market share and Angola&#8217;s oil production.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-opec-members-market-share">OPEC MEMBERS, MARKET SHARE</h2>



OPEC was founded in 1960 by Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Venezuela, Iran and Iraq. Angola joined the group in 2007. Since 2017, OPEC has worked with Russia and other non-members as part of the OPEC+ group to manage the market, in whose agreements Angola participated.



Angola&#8217;s departure from OPEC will leave it with 12 members and crude oil production of about 27 million bpd, some 27% of the 102 million bpd world oil market.



This further reduces OPEC&#8217;s share of the world market which stood at 34% in 2010.



As well as the departure of some members, OPEC and OPEC+ decisions to cut production and rising output of non-OPEC countries including the United States have weighed on its market share.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-angola-s-oil-production-quota-dispute">ANGOLA&#8217;S OIL PRODUCTION, QUOTA DISPUTE</h2>



In recent years, Angola has been unable to meet its OPEC+ output quota because of declining investment.



For 2024, OPEC+ lowered Angola&#8217;s oil output target at a meeting last month to 1.11 million bpd. This followed a review by outside analysts to verify production figures for Nigeria, Angola and Congo.



Angola, which had sought a quota of 1.18 million bpd, did not agree with this and sent a note of protest to OPEC.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-other-countries-that-left-opec">OTHER COUNTRIES THAT LEFT OPEC</h2>



Angola would join other nations with relatively small oil output that have left in recent years.



Qatar in 2019 quit OPEC to focus on gas, which some analysts interpreted as a swipe at Saudi Arabia, the oil exporting group&#8217;s de facto leader.



Ecuador left in 2020 and Indonesia suspended its membership in 2016.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-countries-that-have-joined-opec">COUNTRIES THAT HAVE JOINED OPEC</h2>



Some small producers have also joined OPEC in recent years. Equatorial Guinea became a full member in 2017 and Gabon re-joined in 2016. Congo became a full member in 2018.



(Reporting by Alex Lawler in London, additional reporting by Wendell Roelf in Cape Town, editing by Barbara Lewis)

FACTBOX-Angola to quit OPEC, reducing membership to 12 countries

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Stock-value-rising-and-falling-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-404443" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Stock-value-rising-and-falling-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Stock-value-rising-and-falling-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Stock-value-rising-and-falling-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Stock-value-rising-and-falling.jpg 1254w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Macro view of a screen of trading terminal with abstract financial graph and digits. Trading and forex concept. 3D Rendering</figcaption></figure>



Dec 22 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Emerging markets stocks receded on Friday and were set for a weekly decline, while currencies edged up, as a rally prompted by the U.S. Federal Reserve&#8217;s dovish narrative somewhat abated ahead of the Christmas holidays.



The MSCI&#8217;s gauge of emerging market stocks&nbsp;.MSCIEF&nbsp;fell 0.5% and was on track for a weekly loss of 0.8%, while a basket of currencies&nbsp;.MIEM00000CUS&nbsp;was up 0.2% against the dollar by 0931 GMT.



The benchmark stocks and currencies index had gained 2.7% and 0.7% respectively in the previous week as the Fed hinted at prospects of likely rate-cuts for next year.



&#8220;The shift from the Fed, it&#8217;s really reopened the possibility of kind of positive returns&#8221; said James Wilson, EM sovereign debt strategist at ING.



&#8220;Overall, for now, many asset classes are kind of picking up on the positivity and it would seem pretty much everything rally all round across (emerging market) equities, fixed income and more kind of risk-sensitive assets, and bonds as well,&#8221; added Wilson.



However, risk sentiment dipped in the last full-trading week of the year after pushback on interest rate cuts from some Fed policymakers, while investors awaited the U.S. core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) data, as they look for more cues on the rate outlook.



In Asia, Hong Kong shares .HIS slid 1.7% after China unveiled new draft rules for online video games, while the Shanghai Composite index .SSEC slipped 0.1% after rising earlier in the session, as five of China&#8217;s largest state banks lowered interest rates on some deposits.



Meanwhile, in Central Europe, the Czech crown&nbsp;EURCZK=&nbsp;inched up 0.1% against the euro a day after the Czech National Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps), while the Polish zloty&nbsp;EURPLN=&nbsp;was steady ahead of unemployment data.



Elsewhere, Turkery&#8217;s lira TYRTOM=D3 hit fresh lows of 29.2155 per dollar, while the country&#8217;s central bank lifted its key interest rate by 250 bps to 42.5% on Thursday as expected.



The number of foreign visitors arriving in Turkey in November dipped 1.02% from a year earlier to 2.53 million, data showed.



In South America, Argentine sovereign debt rose and stocks dipped after early gains on Thursday, as market participants cautiously welcomed an emergency presidential decree ending limits on exports and taking other steps to deregulate an ailing economy.



(Reporting by Siddarth S in Bengaluru; Editing by Varun H K)

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Economy

Oil steadies on mixed supply cues, cautious outlook on China

UBS sees a 10% spike for gold this year as rate cut speculation swirls

Stocks fall, FX muted as central bank-heavy week looms

Two important events this week could determine the future of Fed rate policy

United Nations sees international tourism fully recovering in 2024

Stocks recover on technology boost, FX edges higher

Red Sea ship diversions boost bunker demand, prices in Africa, Mediterranean

Stocks, FX fall for third day on bleak China data, rate jitters

Assets tread water after US CPI data; stocks set for weekly declines

Assets gain ahead of U.S. CPI data; Turkish lira breaches 30 per dollar mark

OPEC December oil output rises before new cuts, Angola exit – Reuters survey

South Africa business activity shrinks in Dec amid port gridlock -PMI

Emerging markets brace for wave of elections with fiscal discipline at stake

Copper could skyrocket over 75% to record highs by 2025 — brace for deficits, analysts say

UAE concludes trade talks with Republic of Congo

FACTBOX-Angola to quit OPEC, reducing membership to 12 countries

Stocks set for weekly declines as rate-cut rally dissipates; FX inch up

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