<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="461" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108042845-1727966861492-gettyimages-2175574979-US_JOBS-820x461.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-538264" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108042845-1727966861492-gettyimages-2175574979-US_JOBS-820x461.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108042845-1727966861492-gettyimages-2175574979-US_JOBS-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108042845-1727966861492-gettyimages-2175574979-US_JOBS-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108042845-1727966861492-gettyimages-2175574979-US_JOBS-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108042845-1727966861492-gettyimages-2175574979-US_JOBS-1536x864.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108042845-1727966861492-gettyimages-2175574979-US_JOBS.jpeg 1858w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Attendees at the Albany Job Fair in Latham, New York, US, on Wednesday, Oct. 2, 2024.  Angus Mordant | Bloomberg | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



September’s jobs picture is expected to look a lot like August’s — a gradual slowdown in hiring from earlier this year, a modest increase in wages and a labor market that is looking a lot like many policymakers had hoped it would.



Nonfarm payrolls are projected to show growth of 150,000, from 142,000 the month before, with a steady unemployment rate of 4.2%, according to the Dow Jones consensus. On the wage side, the forecast is for a 0.3% monthly gain and a 3.8% increase from a year ago — the annual rate being the same as August.



Should the numbers come in as expected, they would hit close to a sweet spot allowing the Federal Reserve to continue to lower interest rates without a sense of urgency that it could be behind the curve and at risk of causing a recession.



“The jobs market is slowing down and becoming less tight,” said Katie Nixon, chief investment officer at Northern Trust Wealth Management. “The balance of power has shifted back to employers and away from employees, and that certainly will alleviate the wage pressure, which has been a key component of inflation. We’ve been team soft-landing for a while, and this is exactly what a soft landing looks like.”



Of course, there’s always the possibility of a substantial upside or downside surprise to the numbers. Then there are the monthly revisions that have been dramatic at times, causing the Labor Department to overcount hiring by more than 800,000 for the 12-month period through March 2024, adding uncertainty to jobs market analysis.



“While we’re looking at 150,000 jobs added, I would not be surprised if it comes in at 50,000 and I would not be surprised if it comes in at 250,000,” said David Kelly, chief global strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management. “I don’t think people should get too freaked out either way about this number.”



The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the report at 8:30 a.m. While there will still be one more nonfarm payrolls count before the presidential vote next month, the October report is expected to be distorted by the dock workers’ strike as well as Hurricane Helene — making September the last “clean” report before Election Day.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-looking-for-clues"><a></a>Looking for clues</h2>



Still, markets will in fact be watching the report closely.



Specifically, they’ll be looking for indications as to whether the Fed will be able to loosen policy and lower interest rates in a gradual manner more in keeping with prior easing cycles, or will have to repeat the dramatic half percentage point interest rate cut it implemented in September.



At the same meeting where they approved the reduction, policymakers indicated another half percentage point, or 50 basis points, in cuts before the end of 2024 and another full percentage point in 2025. Markets, though, are pricing in a more aggressive schedule.



“A strong number wouldn’t really change their position,” JPMorgan’s Kelly said. “A weak number could tempt them to another 50 basis points.”



However, Kelly said the Fed is more likely to look at the employment picture as a “mosaic” rather than just an individual data point.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-the-bigger-picture"><a></a>The bigger picture</h2>



For the past several months, labor market indicators have been trending lower, though far from falling off a cliff. Manufacturing and services sector surveys have pointed to slower hiring, while Fed Chair Jerome Powell earlier this week characterized the labor market as solid but softening.



Excluding a brief slump at the onset of the Covid pandemic, the last time the monthly hiring rate was the level seen this summer — 3.3% of the labor force in both June and August — was in October 2013 when the unemployment rate was 7.2%, according to Labor Department data.



Job openings also have fallen and pushed the ratio of available positions to unemployed workers down to 1.1 to 1, from 2 to 1 just a couple years ago.



However, a kind of stasis has hit a labor market that not that long ago was wrestling with the “Great Resignation” as workers confident they could find better deals elsewhere left their jobs en masse.



Excluding the pandemic gyrations in 2020, the quits rate hasn’t been lower than its current 1.9% since December 2014, while the separations rate, even including Covid, was last lower than the current 3.1% in December 2012.



“Whatever leverage labor had, [it] has dissipated or just eased as the economy’s normalized,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at tax consultancy RSM. “So we’re going to have a lot less turnover. We’re seeing it in our business. We’re hearing it from our clients.”



Still, had someone told Brusuelas back during the Covid tumult four years ago that the economy would be adding nearly 150,000 jobs a month now with an unemployment rate in the low 4% range, he said, “I’d have bought you a steak dinner.”

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Here’s everything to expect when the September jobs report is released Friday

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="462" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108042150-1727870753022-gettyimages-1402178496-mt_25085_c18473a3-f9fe-4ce4-93d8-345c2499380c-820x462.png" alt="" class="wp-image-537837" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108042150-1727870753022-gettyimages-1402178496-mt_25085_c18473a3-f9fe-4ce4-93d8-345c2499380c-820x462.png 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108042150-1727870753022-gettyimages-1402178496-mt_25085_c18473a3-f9fe-4ce4-93d8-345c2499380c-300x169.png 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108042150-1727870753022-gettyimages-1402178496-mt_25085_c18473a3-f9fe-4ce4-93d8-345c2499380c-160x90.png 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108042150-1727870753022-gettyimages-1402178496-mt_25085_c18473a3-f9fe-4ce4-93d8-345c2499380c-768x432.png 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108042150-1727870753022-gettyimages-1402178496-mt_25085_c18473a3-f9fe-4ce4-93d8-345c2499380c.png 1480w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Mario Tama | Getty Images News | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



President Joe Biden and his administration are sticking to their position of not invoking the Taft-Hartley Act to force International Longshoremen’s Association dock workers back on the job at East and Gulf coast ports where a strike is hitting day two on Wednesday, a political decision that reflects the power of unions one month out from an election but risks losing some progress on what is the No. 1 issue for many voters: the economy.



Rhetoric from Cabinet secretaries, including Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and acting Labor Secretary Julie Su, has become sharper in recent days, pointing the finger at the ports ownership and ocean carriers. But right now, there is no sign of any progress bringing the ILA and port owners back to the table for a new round of negotiations, according to CNBC sources. And there remains a big risk on the other side of the political decision-making: wage increases that are a win for workers but ultimately ripple through the economy in the form of higher prices, both domestically and around the world.



Much of the focus about the economic impact of the ports strike to date has been focused on the direct hit to the economy from the massive trade shutdown, and the ways in which supply chain congestion and delays can result in higher prices being passed along to consumers, which will become a bigger factor the longer a strike persists. But maritime and business experts are also warning about the risk of persistent wage inflation making its way into supply chain prices that the Federal Reserve has recently been successful in taming.



“The wage increase would indeed be passed on and eventually be paid by the importers,” said Lars Jensen, CEO of Vespucci Maritime, a maritime shipping consultant. “The inflationary impact would vary dramatically depending on the value of the goods inside the container,” he said, adding the influence would be an even bigger impact for agricultural exporters.



The ILA’s president, Harold Daggett, is seeking a raise as high as $5 per hour, per year, over a six-year period in a new contract for union port workers in a labor battle with the United States Maritime Alliance. The USMX, which represents port ownership, last offered what it described as a nearly 50% wage increase over six years on Monday, an offer rejected by the union. The USMX reiterated that offer on Tuesday, saying in a statement that its “current offer of a nearly 50% wage increase exceeds every other recent union settlement, while addressing inflation, and recognizing the ILA’s hard work to keep the global economy running.”



But Daggett countered claims of any “significant increase,” saying in the ILA’s own Tuesday statement that the USMX “conveniently omit that many of our members are operating multi-million-dollar container-handling equipment for a mere $20 an hour. In some states, the minimum wage is already $15.” The ILA president added that “the USMX also overlooks the fact that two-thirds of our members are constantly on call, with no guaranteed employment if no ships are being worked. Our members qualify for benefits only based on the hours they worked the previous year, making them vulnerable if there’s a downturn in work.”



Daggett told CNBC on Tuesday morning that the ILA is seeking a wage increase of 61.5%.



The USMX has not reached back out to the ILA with any new counteroffer, and the sides are not currently at the negotiating table, according to sources granted anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the labor discussions.



While a significant wage hike would undoubtedly be a big win for workers and a resurgent labor movement — which has used extreme terminology to tell Biden what it would think of a decision to intervene in the strike — with the union and port ownership group at an impasse, the ocean carriers have begun to take steps to protect their own financial position in the near term for as long as a strike persists. CMA CGM, one of the world’s largest ocean carriers, declared a force majeure on Tuesday, a legal maneuver to free itself of contract requirements with shipping clients due to forces beyond its control, and said it “may charge any additional operational costs” associated with vessels delayed due to the strike to cargo on the water as of Oct. 1, 2024 with a U.S. East or Gulf coast port of discharge.



Biden said Tuesday that his administration will be “monitoring for any price gouging activity” that benefits foreign ocean carriers, including those on the USMX board. He also said “foreign ocean carriers have made record profits since the pandemic, when Longshoremen put themselves at risk to keep ports open.”



Based on prior port strikes, ocean carriers normally profit from soaring freight rates based on demand for other ports as well as detention and demurrage fees on containers stranded during a ports shutdown. Analysts have been warning ocean spot rates could increase by 20%-50%. UBS forecast that 20% of Maersk’s total volume would touch a U.S. port that would be impacted by the strike. Maersk is on the board of the USMX. UBS estimated that if freight rates increased 30% over two quarters, a revenue tail wind of more than $1 billion would be generated.



Buttigieg said Tuesday that the DOT is monitoring “any attempts by companies to opportunistically raise prices, including ocean shippers or others,” and called on ocean carriers to withdraw surcharges. “No one should exploit a disruption for profit,” he said in a DOT statement. He added that the Federal Maritime Commission will use expanded authority signed into law by Biden to “ensure any fees assessed are legitimate and lawful.”



But the still more significant price hikes would occur after a successful deal for the ILA, according to some economists, even though the total number of workers involved in the strike, at around 50,000, is a blip in a U.S. labor market that employs well over 100 million people. It comes amid other union battles across the U.S. economy targeting aviation and automakers. “The scale of wage demands at the ports,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/23/boeing-labor-proposal-best-and-final-offer-strike.html">at Boeing</a>, and at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/19/uaw-warns-of-potential-strikes-at-ford-stellantis.html">autoworkers</a>, make one laugh at the claims that the labor market is soft and that wage inflation is dead,” said Larry Lindsey,&nbsp;CEO of The Lindsey Group.



Acting Labor Secretary Su lashed out at the idea that labor wage increases would be passed onto U.S. exporters and importers.



“At the same time that we were urging them to put a fair offer on the table to avoid all the disruption, they were calculating how much of a surcharge they could charge for shipping in light of a strike,” said Su said in an interview. “I mean, it’s really an outrageous position.”



For months, logistics and business trade groups representing major industries from retail to manufacturing and agriculture have sent numerous letters to Biden and his administration urging intervention. Now, with the president sticking to his position that collective bargaining is the only means for a “fair deal” for the ILA, executives across the economy are beginning to weight the potential pricing impacts for their business models.



“It quickly renders our U.S. agriculture exports much less competitive in the global marketplace,” said Peter Friedmann, executive director of the Agriculture Transportation Coalition, of any logistics rate increases his sector would see. “Our foreign customers can satisfy their food, farm, and fiber needs from other countries, which is where they will go, &nbsp;as costs of moving containers through U.S. ports continue to increase.”



Su said she is very sympathetic to the needs of the business community, but stuck to the administration’s position. “I’ve been in many conversations with them too,” she said. “I understand just how important the impact of a good resolution is. I know they understand, just as consumers and American workers understand, that foreign companies who profit from our economy and who employ American workers and have an impact on American consumers should do the right thing, and in that battle, we are always going to stand with American workers, American businesses and American consumers.”



The Federal Reserve has recently become more concerned about the labor market than inflation and has begun cutting interest rates to “recalibrate” its monetary policy in a bid to prevent a rise in layoffs and betting inflation is on its way back to 2%, which recent data supports. In the most recent nonfarm payrolls report for August, average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% on the month and 3.8% from a year ago, both higher than estimates. The September nonfarm payrolls report is due out Friday and in the short term, the union battle could influence the data on both wages and layoffs.



The big payroll report immediately ahead of the government data, the ADP private payrolls report, showed on Wednesday that while hiring increased, pay growth has continued to trend down. The annual gain for those remaining in their jobs decreased to 4.7%, while it fell even more for job switchers, to 6.6%, down 0.7 percentage point from August. The upcoming nonfarm payrolls report is the last the Fed will receive before its next interest rate policy decision in November, and it could include downward pressures in the labor market as well, influenced by both layoffs related to the strike and Hurricane Helene.



“This would just completely complicate everything that the Fed is trying to do because they’re not getting a read to what the economy is actually performing,” Jim Bianco, head of Bianco Research, told CNBC’s “Fast Money” on Tuesday.



In the longer-term analysis, the wage increase being sought by the union will confirm that wage growth is not going back to its pre-Covid trend, of about 2.5%, according to Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Financial Group. Instead, he estimates it will settle around 4%, which will put a floor under inflation.



“I continue to believe that after the disinflation plays out, which is mostly taking place in goods, 3-4% will be the normalized inflation rate,” said Boockvar. “And this wage deal, when it happens, will result in goods prices to inflect higher.”



At its recent September Federal Open Market Committee meeting, Fed officials lowered their inflation outlook to 2.3% from 2.6% previously, and the central bank’s own supply chain indicator has stabilized after the pandemic shocks. But its forecast of a long-run neutral rate near 2.9% has moved higher as the Fed continues to pursue its stated mandate of 2% inflation.



“For those dependent on functioning ports for their livelihood, the collateral damage is often underestimated by those watching from afar,” said Alan Baer, CEO of logistics firm OL USA. &nbsp;



On Wednesday, the National Retail Federation coordinated a coalition of 272 trade associations including manufacturers, farmers, wholesalers, retailers, restaurants, and importers and exporters, to send another letter to Biden pleading for him to end the strike.



Steve Lamar, CEO of the American Apparel &amp; Footwear Association, one of the groups which signed the letter, said it’s imperative that the Biden administration use all the tools at its disposal, including its authorities under Taft-Hartley, to keep the parties at the negotiating table, the ports opened and goods moving efficiently. “Allowing the status quo to persist increases the likelihood that this port crisis will hurt our industry and the overall U.S. economy through job losses, higher prices, and goods shortages,” said Lamar.



In December 2022, Biden signed legislation making a planned freight rail strike illegal, even though key issues sought by rail workers and their unions were not included in the bill. At that time, the president said it “helps our nation avoid what, without a doubt, would have been an economic catastrophe at a very bad time in the calendar.”



That situation put “union Joe” Biden in a difficult position, but he said at the time of the signing that while his support for unions was as strong as ever, as president of the United States, rather than a single senator from Delaware, it was his job to look out for all Americans.&nbsp;



— Reporting by CNBC’s Jeff Cox contributed to this article.



Correction: Lars Jensen is CEO of Vespucci Maritime. An earlier version misspelled his name.

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The East and Gulf coast ports strike could be a no-win situation for the Biden administration

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="800" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/TJORLERHRFO4NIRPMFSZ32CFMA.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-529012" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/TJORLERHRFO4NIRPMFSZ32CFMA.jpg 800w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/TJORLERHRFO4NIRPMFSZ32CFMA-300x205.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/TJORLERHRFO4NIRPMFSZ32CFMA-132x90.jpg 132w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/TJORLERHRFO4NIRPMFSZ32CFMA-768x525.jpg 768w" sizes="(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: An oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia, June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



Oil watchers are now seeing a genuine threat to crude supplies after Iran launched a ballistic missile attack on Israel, escalating conflict in the Middle East.



Iran on Tuesday launched the strike on Israel in retaliation for its recent killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and an Iranian commander in Lebanon.



Iranian oil infrastructure may soon become a target for Israel as it considers a countermove, analysts told CNBC.



“The Middle East conflict may finally impact oil supply,” said Saul Kavonic, senior energy analyst at MST Marquee. “The scope for a material disruption to oil supply is now imminent.”



These latest developments could be a gamechanger, after a prolonged period of “geopolitical risk fatigue” during which traders brushed off threats of oil supply disruptions stemming from the situation in the Middle East as well as Ukraine, he said.



Up to 4% of global oil supply is at risk as the conflict now directly envelopes Iran, and an attack or tighter sanctions could send prices to $100 per barrel again, Kavonic added.



Iran’s latest missile attack followed Israel’s deployment of ground troops into southern Lebanon, intensifying its offensive against Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militant group. Most of the 200 missiles launched were intercepted by Israeli and U.S. defenses, and there were no reported fatalities in Israel as a result of the attack.



The attack came on the heels of Israel’s deployment of ground forces into south Lebanon, escalating its offensive on Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militant group. Oil prices gained over 5% in the previous session following the missile strike, before tapering to a 2% climb. Global benchmark Brent is now trading 1.44% higher at $74.62 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures rose 1.62% to $70.95 per barrel.



Since the armed Israel-Hamas conflict started Oct. 7 of last year, disruptions to the oil market has been limited. The oil market also remains under pressure as increased production from the U.S. add to the supply picture, and sputtering Chinese demand have depressed prices, said Andy Lipow, president at Lipow Oil Associates.



Iran is the third largest producer among the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, producing almost four million barrels of oil per day, according to data from the Energy Information Administration.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-new-phase-of-the-war"><a></a>New phase of the war?</h2>



Other analysts echoed Kavonic’s warning.



“As Israel turns from Gaza to Lebanon and Iran, the war is entering a new and more energy-related phase,” Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group, told CNBC, adding that he expects Israel’s retaliation for the missile attack to be “disproportionately large.”



“It’s going to get worse before it gets better,” he said.



Ross Schaap, head of research at GeoQuant, which leverages structural and high-frequency data to generate political risk scores, said that the organization’s risk analysis model of the Israel-Iran conflict, which has remained in three standard deviations of the average trend over the past 12 years, saw a significant spike after the latest missile strikes.



These results indicate that “much bigger events” are expected, said Schaap said.



Josh Young, CIO of Bison Interests, who is similarly observing an increasing likelihood of a potential strike on Iranian oil infrastructure oil supply disruption,&nbsp;said that this marks a “significant escalation” by Iran.



Should Iranian exports go offline due to an attack, Young predicts that oil prices will surge to more than $100 per barrel.

FILE PHOTO: An oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk, Russia

Oil watchers now see a real threat of supply disruptions after latest Iran-Israel escalation

<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/16/trump-iran-kill-plot-secret-service.html">Iran</a>&nbsp;on Tuesday launched a ballistic missile attack on&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/24/we-have-much-more-on-the-way-if-they-will-continue-israels-president-warns-hezbollah.html">Israel</a>&nbsp;in retaliation for its recent killing of&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/29/israel-pounds-lebanon-pressuring-hezbollah-after-killing-its-leader.html">Hezbollah</a>&nbsp;leader&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/28/hezbollah-leader-hassan-nasrallah-killed-in-strike-israeli-army-says.html">Hassan Nasrallah</a>&nbsp;and an Iranian commander in&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/01/israeli-forces-launch-ground-offensive-in-lebanon-as-markets-eye-escalation-.html">Lebanon</a>.



The attack came on the heels of&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/30/israeli-military-says-limited-operation-against-hezbollah-targets-in-southern-lebanon-has-begun.html">Israel</a>’s deployment of ground forces into south Lebanon, escalating its offensive on Hezbollah, a militant group backed by Iran.



“In response to the martyrdom of Martyr Haniyeh, Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah, and Martyr Nilforoushan, we have targeted the heart of the occupied territories,” the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/irans-revolutionary-guards" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps</a>&nbsp;said in a statement after missiles began appearing in the skies over Israel.



“Should the Zionist regime respond to Iran’s operation, it will face crushing attack,” said the IRGC, Iran’s paramilitary organization.



Abbas Nilforoushan was an Iranian Revolutionary Guards deputy commander, who was killed with Nasrallah in a bombing by Israel last Friday in Beirut, Lebanon.



<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/31/iran-says-hamas-leader-ismail-haniyeh-was-assassinated-in-tehran.html">Ismail Haniyeh</a>&nbsp;was the political commander of the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/07/hamas-new-political-leader-yahya-sinwar-is-seen-as-more-extreme.html">Hamas</a>&nbsp;terror group, who was killed in July by an Israeli strike on Tehran, the capital of Iran. Israel has been engaged in a brutal war on Hamas since the group launched the Oct. 7 terror attack on Israel from Gaza.



There were only two people reported lightly injured from shrapnel from the missile attack in the Tel Aviv area, according to Israeli authorities. There were also some minor injuries reported across Israel involving people moving to safe spaces.



The Israel Defense Forces announced that citizens were allowed to leave protected spaces across the country just after 1:30 p.m. ET.



A White House official on Tuesday warned that any direct attack on Israel by Iran “will carry severe consequences for Iran.”



“We are actively supporting defensive preparations to defend Israel against this attack,” the official said.



That official and a Defense Department official said that Iran was expected to target military and government sites, not civilian locations.



Sirens wailed around Israel during Tuesday’s attack.



President&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/joe-biden/">Joe Biden</a>&nbsp;met Tuesday afternoon with Vice President&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/kamala-harris/">Kamala Harris</a>&nbsp;and national security officials to discuss the attack, the White House said.



“They reviewed the status of U.S. preparations to help Israel defend against attacks and protect U.S. personnel,” White House senior deputy press secretary Emilie Simons said in a post on the social media site X.



<a href="https://il.usembassy.gov/security-alert-u-s-embassy-jerusalem-26/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">The U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem</a>&nbsp;directed all U.S. government employees and their families in Israel to “shelter in place until further notice.”



The embassy in the same notice said it “reminds U.S. citizens of the continued need for caution and increased personal security awareness as security incidents, including mortar and rocket fire and unmanned aircraft system UAS intrusions, often take place without warning.”



“The security environment remains complex and can change quickly depending on the political situation and recent events,” the notice said.



Iran’s suspected planned attack came a day after Israeli ground forces crossed into south&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/01/israeli-forces-launch-ground-offensive-in-lebanon-as-markets-eye-escalation-.html">Lebanon</a>&nbsp;as part of an attack on Hezbollah.



The number of Israeli troops who have entered Lebanon is in “the low hundreds,” an Israeli official told NBC News.



Iran Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has said the killing of Nasrallah and a senior Revolutionary Guards commander in that attack “will not go unanswered.” Araghchi said the United States was “complicit in this crime.”



The&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/.DJI/">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>&nbsp;fell more than 250 points by 10 a.m. ET, spurred by a surge in the cost of&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/01/crude-oil-prices-today.html">West Texas Intermediate crude oil</a>, on fears of heightened tensions in the petroleum-rich Middle East.



The WTI November contract was up nearly 3% by midmorning, hovering shy of $70 a barrel.



In April, Iran launched an attack on Israel that included more than 300 drones and ballistic missiles after two top Iranian commanders were killed by an Israeli airstrike in Syria.



Most of the missiles and drones were shot down by the Israeli and U.S. militaries.

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Iran launches missile attack on Israel for killing of Hezbollah leader, general

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="461" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108040874-1727707108673-gettyimages-2173990659-cfoto-chinasto240927_np79X-820x461.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-537077" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108040874-1727707108673-gettyimages-2173990659-cfoto-chinasto240927_np79X-820x461.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108040874-1727707108673-gettyimages-2173990659-cfoto-chinasto240927_np79X-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108040874-1727707108673-gettyimages-2173990659-cfoto-chinasto240927_np79X-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108040874-1727707108673-gettyimages-2173990659-cfoto-chinasto240927_np79X-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108040874-1727707108673-gettyimages-2173990659-cfoto-chinasto240927_np79X-1536x864.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108040874-1727707108673-gettyimages-2173990659-cfoto-chinasto240927_np79X.jpeg 1858w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">A customer watches stock market at a stock exchange in Hangzhou, China, on September 27, 2024.  Costfoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



BEIJING — The rocket higher in Chinese stocks so far looks different from the market bubble in 2015, analysts said.



Major mainland China stock indexes surged by more than 8% Monday, extending a winning streak on the back of stimulus hopes. Trading volume on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges hit 2.59 trillion yuan ($368.78 billion), surpassing a high of 2.37 trillion yuan on May 28, 2015, according to Wind Information.



Over six months from 2014 to 2015, the Chinese stock market doubled in value, while leverage climbed, Aaron Costello, regional head for Asia at Cambridge Associates, pointed out Monday.



This time around, the market hasn’t run up as much, while leverage is lower, he said. “We’re not in the danger zone yet.”



Stock market leverage by percentage and value were far higher in 2015 than data for Monday showed, according to Wind Information.



The Shanghai Composite in June 2015 soared past 5,100 points, a level it has never regained since a market plunge later that summer. MSCI that year delayed adding the mainland Chinese stocks to its globally tracked emerging markets index. Also hitting sentiment was Beijing’s back-and-forth on a crackdown on trading with borrowed funds and a surprise devaluation of the Chinese yuan against the U.S. dollar.



This year, the yuan is trading stronger against the greenback, while foreign institutional allocation to Chinese stocks has fallen to multi-year lows.



The Shanghai Composite closed at 3,336.5 on Monday, before mainland exchanges closed for a week-long holiday commemorating the 75th anniversary of the People’s Republic of China. Trading is set to resume on Oct. 8.



In the runup to the 2015 market rally, Chinese state media had encouraged stock market investment, while loose rules allowed people to buy stocks with borrowed funds. Beijing has long sought to build up its domestic stock market, which at roughly 30 years old is far younger than that of the U.S.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-strong-policy-signals"><a></a>Strong policy signals</h2>



The latest market gains follow announcements in the last week of economic support and programs to encourage institutions to put more money into stocks. The news helped stocks rebound from roughly their lowest levels of the year. The CSI 300 rallied by nearly 16% in its best week since 2008.



Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday led a high-level meeting that called for halting the real estate market’s decline as well as strengthening fiscal and monetary policy. The People’s Bank of China last week also cut interest rates and the amount existing mortgage holders need to pay.



“The policy is much stronger and [more] concerted this time than 2015. That said, the economy faces greater headwind[s] right now compared to back then,” said Zhu Ning, author of “China’s Guaranteed Bubble.”



One week of massive stock gains do not mean the economy is on its way to a similar recovery.



The CSI 300 remains more than 30% below its February 2021 high, a level that had even surpassed the index’s 2015 high.



“The Japanese experience provides an important perspective, as the Nikkei 225 Index bounced four times by an average of 34 per cent on its way to a 66 per cent cumulative drop from December 1989 to September 1998,” Stephen Roach, senior fellow at Yale Law School’s Paul Tsai China Center, pointed out Tuesday in a blog post that was also published in the Financial Times opinion section.



Economic data for the last few months have pointed to slower growth in retail sales and manufacturing. That raised concerns that China’s gross domestic product would not reach the full-year target of around 5% without additional stimulus.



“I think what’s missing is the key to a lot of this, that has not come out, which would be a truly confidence-boosting measure, is how are they going to fix the local government finances,” Costello said, noting local coffers once relied on land sales for revenue to spend on public services.



While Chinese authorities have cut interest rates and eased some home buying restrictions, the Ministry of Finance has yet to announce additional debt issuance to support growth.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-animal-spirits-at-play"><a></a>Animal spirits at play</h2>



Peter Alexander, founder and managing director of Z-Ben Advisors, expects the level of fiscal stimulus — when it’s likely announced in late October — to be less than what markets are hoping for.



It “may have investors a little bit over their skis, as people like to say,” he said Monday on CNBC’s “Street Signs Asia.”



He added in a written response that his experiences in 2007 and 2015 indicate the Chinese stock market rally could last for another three to six months, or abruptly end.



“This is pure animal instincts and the Chinese have been pent up for a stock market rally,” Alexander said. He added that there are market risks from how unprepared the stock trading system was for the surge of buying.



Data on the number of new retail investors in China this year wasn’t publicly available. Reports indicate brokerages have been overwhelmed with new requests, echoing how individuals piled into the stock market nearly a decade earlier. The Shanghai Stock Exchange on Friday said confirming transactions at the market open had been abnormally slow.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-looking-for-earnings-growth"><a></a>Looking for earnings growth</h2>



“China was cheap and was missing the catalyst. &#8230; The catalyst has occurred to unlock the value,” Costello said.



“Fundamentally we need to see corporate earnings go up,” he said. “If that doesn’t go up, this is all a short-term pop.”



Beijing’s efforts earlier this year to stem a market rout included changing the head of the securities regulator. Stocks climbed, only to see the rally peter out in May.



A factor that can send stocks past May levels is that earnings per share forecasts have stabilized versus downgrades earlier this year, James Wang, head of China strategy at UBS Investment Bank Research, said in a note Monday.



Lower U.S. interest rates, a stronger Chinese yuan, increased share buybacks and more coordinated policymaker response also support gains, he said. Wang’s latest price target of $70 on the MSCI China index is now just a few cents above where it closed Monday.



— CNBC’s Hui Jie Lim contributed to this report.

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China’s stock surge has echoes of the 2015 bubble. What’s different this time

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="461" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108041186-1727745894541-gettyimages-2175709455-port532972_nnwur8co-820x461.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-537041" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108041186-1727745894541-gettyimages-2175709455-port532972_nnwur8co-820x461.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108041186-1727745894541-gettyimages-2175709455-port532972_nnwur8co-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108041186-1727745894541-gettyimages-2175709455-port532972_nnwur8co-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108041186-1727745894541-gettyimages-2175709455-port532972_nnwur8co-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108041186-1727745894541-gettyimages-2175709455-port532972_nnwur8co-1536x864.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108041186-1727745894541-gettyimages-2175709455-port532972_nnwur8co.jpeg 1858w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Shipping containers sit stacked in the Port of Newark on September 30, 2024 seen from New York City. A massive strike shutting down ports across the East and Gulf coasts began at midnight as members of the International Longshoremen’s Association continue to make salary and other demands to the United States Maritime Alliance, which controls many of the ports across the country.  Spencer Platt | Getty Images News | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



Billions in trade came to a screeching halt at U.S. East Coast and Gulf Coast ports after members of the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) began walking off the job after 12:01 a.m. ET on October 1. The ILA is North America’s largest longshoremen’s union, with roughly 50,000 of its 85,000 members making good on the threat to strike at 14 major ports subject to a just-expired master contract with the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX), and picketing workers beginning to appear at ports. The union and port ownership group failed to reach agreement by midnight on a new contract in a protracted battle over wage increases and use of automation.



In a last-ditch effort on Monday to avert a strike that will cause significant harm to the U.S. economy if it is lengthy — at least hundreds of millions of dollars a day at the largest ports like New York/New Jersey — the USMX offered a nearly 50% wage hike over six years, but that was rejected by the ILA, according to a source close to the negotiations. The port ownership group said it hoped the offer would lead to a resumption of collective bargaining.



The 14 ports where preparations for a strike have been underway are Boston, New York/New Jersey, Philadelphia, Wilmington, North Carolina, Baltimore, Norfolk, Charleston, Savannah, Jacksonville, Tampa, Miami, New Orleans, Mobile, and Houston.



New York Governor Kathy Hochul said in a statement issued shortly after midnight that “the first large-scale eastern dockworker strike in 47 years began at ports from Maine to Texas, including at the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey. In preparation for this moment, New York has been working around the clock to ensure that our grocery stores and medical facilities have the essential products they need.”



Rhetoric from ILA leadership has been aggressive in the weeks leading up to the strike, with ILA president Harold Daggett, who was a union member the last time it went out on strike in 1977, telling rank-and-file members — who unanimously voted to authorize a strike — in a recent video message, “We’ll crush them.” 



In a video posted to an ILA Instagram account, Daggett addressed union workers at Maher Terminals in Elizabeth, New Jersey. “This is going down in history, what we’re doing here,” he said. “They can’t survive too long,” he added.



For now, it is the supply chain and U.S. economy which will take the immediate hit.



Shana Wray, principal solutions architect for supply chain intelligence firm FourKites, tells CNBC the strike comes at the worst possible time, with its impact on supply chain congestion to exacerbate the devastation left behind from Hurricane Helene.



“Helene caused ports to delay openings at the ports of Charleston and Savannah, as well as power losses at intermodal facilities in Savannah, Charleston, and Atlanta,” said Wray. “This created ocean, trucking, and rail carriers congestion across Southeast and Gulf ports.”



Logistics experts have told CNBC in recent months there has been an exodus of cargo from the East to West Coast, and companies moved up orders for peak shipping season due to the strike risk. Both economists and logistics executives say the impact of the strike depends on how long the work stoppage lasts.



“A disruption of a week or two will create some backlogs but the broader consequences will be minimal outside of a handful of very port-reliant areas, including Savannah,” said Adam Kamins, economist at Moody’s Analytics. “But anything longer will lead to shortages and upward price pressures,” he said.



The most significant issues would be faced by food and automobile industries, Kamins said, as they rely especially heavily on the ports that will be shut down. While a surge in inflation is highly unlikely even with a longer strike, even a modest reacceleration could create uncertainty and force the Federal Reserve to be more cautious about lowering interest rates, which would weigh on the overall outlook for job growth and investment.



A one-week strike could cost the U.S. economy $3.78 billion, according to an analysis by The Conference Board, and cause supply chain slowdowns through mid-November. In all, the ports threatened with strikes handle $3 trillion annually in U.S. annual international trade.



Many industries are preparing for major repercussions. Noushin Shamsili, CEO and president of Nuco Logistics, which specializes in pharmaceutical imports and exports, said the strike comes at a critical time for inventory replenishment for the pharma sector.



“Almost all of this industry is just on time,” said Shamsili. “Raw materials are being brought in to complete drug manufacturing. Medical supplies for clinics and hospitals are on these vessels. For a while importers did not bring in a lot of cargo because they were overflowing with supplies post-Covid. Now they have started reordering medical devices, gloves, syringes, and tubing.”



Shamsili also said the East Coast ports are a gateway for generic medicine made in India. Approximately 48% of the active pharmaceutical ingredients used in the U.S. are being imported from India. Without these APIs, medications cannot be produced. APIs are also manufactured in Europe, which also use the East Coast ports as U.S. points of entry.



Steve Lamar, CEO of the American Apparel and Footwear Association, said these ports are critical for the retailing industry. In 2023, the East and Gulf Coast ports accounted for 53% of all U.S. apparel, footwear, and accessories imports, he said, amounting to over&nbsp;$92 billion&nbsp;in value.



“The clock is ticking away,” said Lamar. “Each strike day yields five more days of disruption as our consumer-driven economy gets snarled in port backlogs right as we hit the heavy holiday shopping season. Both sides need to get back to the table and the administration must be ready to use all of its tools to make sure this happens. Reaching a fair, long-term, and sustainable deal is job No. 1 for all parties.”



Importers such as Walmart — the No. 1 importer across the affected ports — as well as other top importers including Home Depot, Ikea, Samsung, and LG Electronics will find few to no options to divert trade to Canada or the West Coast as other unions close ranks in support of the ILA’s labor battle.



These companies are among the leading importers at the 14 major ports that an ILA strike would impact, according to ImportGenius data.



The last time the ILA went on strike in 1977 the ILWU union at West Coast ports supported it by allowing ILA members to go to the Port of Los Angeles to stop the unloading of diverted vessel. ILA president Daggett, who was involved in those actions as a young union member, recently cited this historical example in communications with the rank-and-file.



The ILA has also made clear that all of its members, including those not subject to the expired contract, will be closing ranks. “You can be sure the ILA’s 85,000 members will be supporting their Sisters and Brothers,” James McNamara, spokesman for the ILU, recently told CNBC.



The Teamsters issued a statement on Monday night from its president Sean O’Brien saying it stood “100%” with the ILA in the fight for a new contract and reminding its members that Teamsters do not cross picket lines. “The ocean carriers are on strike against themselves after failing to negotiate a contract that recognizes the value of these workers,” O’Brien stated, and he added some harsh words about any effort by the federal government to interfere in the labor action.



The National Retail Federation has said items on the vessels en route for October 1 arrival and after are restocking items for the holidays as well as just-in-time products like auto parts and pharmaceuticals.



Between 43%-49% of all U.S. imports and billions of dollars in trade monthly are now caught up in the failed talks over a new union contract, which broke down in June amid allegations from the ILA that ports were violating rules related to use of automation.



The White House has engaged senior officials including Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg, Acting Secretary of Labor Julie Su, and Director of the National Economic Council Lael Brainard since late last week in an effort to bring the ILA and USMX back to the bargaining table to negotiate a deal quickly.



Late in the day on Monday, USMX put out a statement saying within the past 24 hours it had traded counter offers with the union, including an offer to increase wages by nearly 50% over six years, triple employer contributions to employee retirement plans, strengthen health care options, and retain the current contract language around automation and semi-automation.



The union had already said in statement issued at 11 a.m. ET on Monday that “the Ocean Carriers represented by USMX want to enjoy rich billion-dollar profits that they are making in 2024, while they offer ILA Longshore Workers an unacceptable wage package that we reject.” The statement added that the union saw the USMX as “intent on causing a strike at all ports from Maine to Texas beginning in almost 12 hours.”



The Biden administration finds itself in a delicate political moment, with the presidential election one month away and President Biden vowing he will not use existing labor law to force union workers back on the job, which is within his powers under the Taft-Hartley Act.



The Taft-Hartley Act, passed in 1947, was a revision of U.S. law governing labor relations and union activity that granted a U.S. president the power to suspend a strike for an 80-day “cooling off period” in cases where “national health or safety” are at risk.&nbsp;



The White House has reiterated its position several times in recent days that “We’ve never invoked Taft-Hartley to break a strike and are not considering doing so now.”



Cruise operations and military operations at ports will continue.

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East and Gulf Coast ports strike, stranding billions in trade and threatening U.S. economy

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="461" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/107334836-17001387862023-11-16t045757z_657805151_rc24e4ay49fs_rtrmadp_0_apec-usa-820x461.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-535493" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/107334836-17001387862023-11-16t045757z_657805151_rc24e4ay49fs_rtrmadp_0_apec-usa-820x461.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/107334836-17001387862023-11-16t045757z_657805151_rc24e4ay49fs_rtrmadp_0_apec-usa-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/107334836-17001387862023-11-16t045757z_657805151_rc24e4ay49fs_rtrmadp_0_apec-usa-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/107334836-17001387862023-11-16t045757z_657805151_rc24e4ay49fs_rtrmadp_0_apec-usa-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/107334836-17001387862023-11-16t045757z_657805151_rc24e4ay49fs_rtrmadp_0_apec-usa-1536x864.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/107334836-17001387862023-11-16t045757z_657805151_rc24e4ay49fs_rtrmadp_0_apec-usa.jpeg 1920w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Photo: via CNBC</figcaption></figure>



BEIJING — China aims to stop the property slump, top leaders said Thursday in a readout of a high-level meeting published by state media.



Authorities “must work to halt the real estate market decline and spur a stable recovery,” the readout said in Chinese, translated by CNBC. It also called for “responding to concerns of the masses.”



Chinese President Xi Jinping led Thursday’s meeting of the Politburo, the second-highest circle of power in the ruling Chinese Communist Party, state media said.



The readout said leaders called for strengthening fiscal and monetary policy support, and touched on a swath of issues from employment to the aging population. It did not specify the timeframe or scale of any measures.



“I take the messages from this meeting as a positive step,” Zhiwei Zhang, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, said in an email to CNBC. “It takes time to formulate a comprehensive fiscal package to address the economic challenges, [and] the meeting took one step in that direction.”



Stocks in mainland China and Hong Kong extended gains after the news to close sharply higher on Thursday. An index of Chinese property stocks in Hong Kong surged by nearly 12%.



Real estate once accounted for more than a quarter of China’s economy. The sector has slumped since Beijing’s crackdown in 2020 on developers’ high levels of debt. But the decline has also cut into local government revenue and household wealth.



China’s broader economic growth has slowed, raising concerns about whether it can reach the full-year GDP target of around 5% without additional stimulus. Just days after the U.S. cut interest rates, the People’s Bank of China on Tuesday announced a slew of planned interest rate cuts and real estate support. Stocks rose, but analysts cautioned the economy still needed fiscal support.



Official data shows real estate’s decline has moderated slightly in recent months. The value of new homes sold fell by 23.6% for the year through August, slightly better than the 24.3% drop year-to-date as of July.



Average home prices fell by 6.8% in August from the prior month on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to Goldman Sachs. That was a modest improvement from a 7.6% decline in July.



“Bottom-out stabilization in the housing market will be a prerequisite for households to take action and break the ‘wait-and-see’ cycle,” Yue Su, principal economist China, at the Economist Intelligence Unit, said in a note. “This suggests that the policy priority is not to boost housing prices to create a wealth effect, but to encourage households to make purchases. This real estate policy is aiming at reducing its drag on the economy.”



Thursday’s meeting called for limiting growth in housing supply, increasing loans for whitelisted projects and reducing the interest on existing mortgages. The People’s Bank of China on Tuesday said forthcoming cuts should lower the mortgage payment burden by 150 billion yuan ($21.37 billion) a year.



While Thursday’s meeting did not provide many details, it is significant for a country where policy directives are increasingly determined at the very top.



The high-level meeting reflects the setting of an “overall policy,” as there previously wasn’t a single meeting to sum up the measures, Bank of China’s chief researcher Zong Liang said in Mandarin, translated by CNBC.



He noted how the meeting follows the market’s positive response to the policy announcements earlier in the week. Zong expects Beijing to increase support, noting a shift from focus on stability to taking action.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-tempering-growth-expectations"><a></a>Tempering growth expectations</h2>



The meeting readout said China would “work hard to complete” the country’s full-year economic targets.



That’s less aggressive than the Politburo meeting in July, when the readout said China would work to achieve those goals “at all costs,” according to Bruce Pang, chief economist and head of research for Greater China at JLL.



That shows policymakers are looking for middle ground between short-term growth and longer-term efforts to address structural issues, he said.



Goldman Sachs and other firms have trimmed their growth forecasts in the last few weeks.



The change in tone about the economic targets signals “the government may tolerate growth below 5%,” the EIU’s Su said. “We estimate real economic growth to be around 4.7% in 2024, before slowing down to 4.5% (a moderate upward revision to our previous forecast).”



“The Politburo meetings on economic deployment usually take place in April, July, and October,” she said.



“The fact that this meeting was held earlier, along with the emphasis on stabilizing growth, reflects policymakers’ concerns about the current economic growth trend.”



Initial analyst reactions to Thursday’s meeting readout were varied.



HSBC said “the tide has turned; be prepared for more proactive initiatives.” Capital Economics, on the other hand, said Beijing’s hint at stimulus did not make it clear whether it would include large-scale fiscal support.



S&amp;P Global Ratings analysts said in a report earlier this year that fiscal stimulus is losing its effectiveness in China and is more of a strategy to buy time for longer-term goals.



Senior officials in the summer told reporters that the economy needed to endure necessary “pain” as it transitioned to one of higher-quality growth with a bigger high-tech industry.



— CNBC’s Sonia Heng contributed to this report.

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China’s Xi and top leaders call for halting real estate decline, responding to public concerns

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="461" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/101943216-980643681-820x461.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-535129" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/101943216-980643681-820x461.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/101943216-980643681-300x169.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/101943216-980643681-160x90.jpg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/101943216-980643681-768x432.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/101943216-980643681-1536x864.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/101943216-980643681.jpg 1858w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">AFP | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



China’s government announced it will offer a one-time cash allowance to those in extreme poverty, a day after its central bank rolled out a slate of stimulus measures aimed at shoring up the economy.



The handout will be provided to “extremely poor people, orphans and other needy people on the occasion of the 75th anniversary of the founding of New China,” China’s Ministry of Civil Affairs reported on Wednesday. That’s according to a Google translation. The subsidies will be doled out before China’s National Day on Oct. 1 to “promptly convey the Party and government’s care and concern for the needy.” The report did not specify the size of the allowance or any further details.



“Xi Jinping and the CPC are laser focused on giving a hand to low- and middle-income Chinese through his common prosperity drive … Xi is focused on building equity in poorer regions,” founder of China Market Research Group Shaun Rein told CNBC when asked about the living subsidies.&nbsp;&nbsp;



The concept of common prosperity, initially introduced by Mao Zedong in the 1950s, was reintroduced by the Chinese government in 2021 to promote moderate wealth for everyone.



As of last November, 40.4 million people in China were covered by subsistence allowances. The average allowance was about 779 yuan ($110.80) per person a month for those staying in urban areas, while rural subsistence was 615 yuan per person.



On Tuesday, China’s vice minister of human resources and social security claimed the country has established the world’s largest social security network. He said the number of people enrolled in basic old-age insurance, unemployment insurance and work-related injury insurance has reached 1.07 billion, 245 million, and 301 million, respectively.



While Chinese President Xi Jinping is a proponent of common prosperity, deploying one-time handouts within such a short time frame is still uncommon.&nbsp;



Even during the Covid pandemic, China did not give out cash subsidies to households and enterprises unlike other governments such as the U.S. and Europe, key member of the Chinese central bank Huang Yiping noted in an August article. 



China’s economy has been pummeled by a raft of weak economic data, as more Chinese opt to save rather than spend leading to lackluster consumption and retail sales figures.

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China offers one-time cash allowance for those in extreme poverty

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="548" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/QSN67BH42NJVPGIAZRVXWLIJVI-820x548.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-534713" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/QSN67BH42NJVPGIAZRVXWLIJVI-820x548.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/QSN67BH42NJVPGIAZRVXWLIJVI-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/QSN67BH42NJVPGIAZRVXWLIJVI-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/QSN67BH42NJVPGIAZRVXWLIJVI-768x513.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/QSN67BH42NJVPGIAZRVXWLIJVI-1536x1026.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/QSN67BH42NJVPGIAZRVXWLIJVI-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: U.S. President Joe Biden looks on while attending the Clinton Global Initiative, in New York, U.S., September 23, 2024. REUTERS/Elizabeth Frantz/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



WASHINGTON, Sept 24 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;U.S. President Joe Biden will travel to Germany and Angola Oct. 10-15, the White House said on Tuesday, in what will be his first visit to Africa as president.



Biden&#8217;s first stop will be Germany, where he will express appreciation to Germany for supporting Ukraine&#8217;s defense against Russia, among other issues, according to the White House.



While in Angola Oct. 13-15, Biden will meet with President Joao Lourenco. The two leaders will discuss increased collaboration on shared priorities, including bolstering economic partnerships, and enhancing peace and security, the White House said.



Biden had hoped to visit Angola late last year but the trip was postponed after the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war in October. Biden has pledged closer U.S. partnership with democracies on the African continent, as Beijing invests heavily in the region.



(Reporting by Jasper Ward; Editing by Eric Beech)

U.S. President Joe Biden visits New York

Biden to travel to Germany, Angola next month

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/108036147-1726687763293-gettyimages-2172944678-_m010185_bsbvoiyl.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-532393" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/108036147-1726687763293-gettyimages-2172944678-_m010185_bsbvoiyl.jpeg 1600w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/108036147-1726687763293-gettyimages-2172944678-_m010185_bsbvoiyl-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/108036147-1726687763293-gettyimages-2172944678-_m010185_bsbvoiyl-820x461.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/108036147-1726687763293-gettyimages-2172944678-_m010185_bsbvoiyl-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/108036147-1726687763293-gettyimages-2172944678-_m010185_bsbvoiyl-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/108036147-1726687763293-gettyimages-2172944678-_m010185_bsbvoiyl-1536x864.jpeg 1536w" sizes="(max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Photo: via CNBC</figcaption></figure>



WASHINGTON – The Federal Reserve on Wednesday enacted its first interest rate cut since the early days of the Covid pandemic, slicing half a percentage point off benchmark rates in an effort to head off a slowdown in the labor market.



With both the jobs picture and inflation softening, the central bank’s Federal Open Market Committee chose to lower its key overnight borrowing rate by a half percentage point, or 50 basis points, affirming market expectations that had recently shifted from an outlook for a cut half that size.



Outside of the emergency rate reductions during Covid, the last time the FOMC cut by half a point was in 2008 during the global financial crisis.



The decision lowers the federal funds rate to a range between 4.75%-5%. While the rate sets short-term borrowing costs for banks, it spills over into multiple consumer products such as mortgages, auto loans and credit cards.



In addition to this reduction, the committee indicated through its “dot plot” the equivalent of 50 more basis points of cuts by the end of the year, close to market pricing. The matrix of individual officials’ expectations pointed to another full percentage point in cuts by the end of 2025 and a half point in 2026. In all, the dot plot shows the benchmark rate coming down about 2 percentage points beyond Wednesday’s move.



“The Committee has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent, and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance,” the post-meeting statement said.



The decision to ease came “in light of progress on inflation and the balance of risks.” Notably, the FOMC vote was 11-1, with Governor Michelle Bowman preferring a quarter-point move. Bowman’s dissent was the first by a Fed governor since 2005, though a number of regional presidents have cast “no” votes during the period.



“We’re trying to achieve a situation where we restore price stability without the kind of painful increase in unemployment that has come sometimes with this inflation. That’s what we’re trying to do, and I think you could take today’s action as a sign of our strong commitment to achieve that goal,” Chair Jerome Powell said at a news conference following the decision.



Trading was volatile after the decision with the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumping as much as 375 points after it was released, before easing somewhat as investors digested the news and considered what it suggests about the state of the economy.



Stocks ended slightly lower on the day while Treasury yields bounced higher.



“This is not the beginning of a series of 50 basis point cuts. The market was thinking to itself, if you go 50, another 50 has a high likelihood. But I think [Powell] really dashed that idea to some extent,” said Tom Porcelli, chief U.S. economist at PGIM Fixed Income. “It’s not that he thinks that’s not going to happen, it’s that he’s not he’s not pre-committing to that to happen. That is the right call.”



The committee noted that “job gains have slowed and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low.” FOMC officials raised their expected unemployment rate this year to 4.4%, from the 4% projection at the last update in June, and lowered the inflation outlook to 2.3% from 2.6% previous. On core inflation, the committee took down its projection to 2.6%, a 0.2 percentage point reduction from June.



The committee expects the long-run neutral rate to be around 2.9%, a level that has drifted higher as the Fed has struggled to get inflation down to 2%.



The decision comes despite most economic indicators looking fairly solid.



Gross domestic product has been rising steadily, and the Atlanta Fed is tracking 3% growth in the third quarter based on continuing strength in consumer spending. Moreover, the Fed chose to cut even though most gauges indicate inflation well ahead of the central bank’s 2% target. The Fed’s preferred measure shows inflation running around 2.5%, well below its peak but still higher than policymakers would like.



However, Powell and other policymakers in recent days have expressed concern about the labor market. While layoffs have shown little sign of rebounding, hiring has slowed significantly. In fact, the last time the monthly hiring rate was this low – 3.5% as a share of the labor force – the unemployment rate was above 6%.



At his news conference following the July meeting, Powell remarked that a 50 basis point cut was “not something we’re thinking about right now.”



For the moment, at least, the move helps settle a contentious debate over how forceful the Fed should have been with the initial move.



However, it sets the stage for future questions over how far the central bank should go before it stops cutting. There was a wide dispersion among members for where they see rates heading in future years.



Investors’ conviction on the move vacillated in the days leading up to the meeting. Over the past week, the odds had shifted to a half-point cut, with the probability for 50 basis points at 63% just before the decision coming down, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch gauge.



The Fed last reduced rates on March 16, 2020, part of an emergency response to an economic shutdown brought about by the spread of Covid-19. It began hiking in March 2022 as inflation was climbing to its highest level in more than 40 years, and last raised rates in July 2023.&nbsp;During the tightening campaign, the Fed raised rates 75 basis points four consecutive times.



The current jobless level is 4.2%, drifting higher over the past year though still at a level that would be considered full employment.



“This was an atypical big cut,” Porceli said. “We’re not knocking on recessions’ door. This easing and this bit cut is about recalibrating policy for the fact that inflation has slowed so much.”



With the Fed at the center of the global financial universe, Wednesday’s decision likely will reverberate among other central banks, several of whom already have started cutting. The factors that drove global inflation higher were related mainly to the pandemic – crippled international supply chains, outsized demand for goods over services, and an unprecedented influx of monetary and fiscal stimulus.



The Bank of England, European Central Bank and Canada’s central bank all have cut rates recently, though others awaited the Fed’s cue.



While the Fed approved the rate cut, it left in place a program in which it is slowly reducing the size of its bond holdings. The process, nicknamed “quantitative tightening,” has brought the Fed’s balance sheet down to $7.2 trillion, a reduction of about $1.7 trillion from its peak. The Fed is allowing up to $50 billion a month in maturing Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities to roll off each month, down from the initial $95 billion when QT started.

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Fed slashes interest rates by a half point, an aggressive start to its first easing campaign in four years

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/107094949-16589488462022-07-27t185755z_1401356456_rc2ikv9v3blg_rtrmadp_0_usa-fed-820x547.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-419969" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/107094949-16589488462022-07-27t185755z_1401356456_rc2ikv9v3blg_rtrmadp_0_usa-fed-820x547.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/107094949-16589488462022-07-27t185755z_1401356456_rc2ikv9v3blg_rtrmadp_0_usa-fed-300x200.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/107094949-16589488462022-07-27t185755z_1401356456_rc2ikv9v3blg_rtrmadp_0_usa-fed-135x90.jpeg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/107094949-16589488462022-07-27t185755z_1401356456_rc2ikv9v3blg_rtrmadp_0_usa-fed-768x512.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/107094949-16589488462022-07-27t185755z_1401356456_rc2ikv9v3blg_rtrmadp_0_usa-fed-1536x1024.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/107094949-16589488462022-07-27t185755z_1401356456_rc2ikv9v3blg_rtrmadp_0_usa-fed-scaled.jpeg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference following a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in Washington, July 27, 2022.
Elizabeth Frantz | Reuters</figcaption></figure>



The U.S. Federal Reserve is on Wednesday heading for its first interest rate cut since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic — and despite the move being widely forecast, global investors are braced for impact.



The Fed is behind a swathe of its central bank peers, including those in the euro zone, the U.K., Canada, Mexico, Switzerland and Sweden, all of which have already cut rates.



Many of these policymakers stressed they were willing to move ahead of the Fed — usually seen as the global leader — in response to slowing growth and easing inflationary pressures at home.



However, some analysts have questioned how much further they could go before the Fed — the world’s biggest central bank by assets — followed suit, given the ripples its actions create.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-global-impact"><a></a>Global impact</h2>



A key concern is the pressure interest rate differentials put on currencies.



Broadly speaking, higher rates attract more foreign investors seeking better returns, in turn boosting the value of the domestic currency.



This has been seen in the current cycle with the Japanese yen and Turkish lira taking a battering while their central banks kept rates low, while the U.S. dollar — as measured against a basket of currencies – soared throughout 2022 as the Fed delivered stringent rate hikes.



These differentials are particularly difficult for central banks attempting to keep price rises in check, since a weaker currency can be inflationary as it increases the cost of imported goods.



Beyond foreign exchange, another important effect of Federal Reserve rate-setting is its impact on the U.S. economy, particularly given the recent focus on a weakening labor market and possibility of a recession.



“As such an important driver of global growth, this is bound to have an effect on asset prices around the world,” Richard Carter, head of fixed interest research at Quilter Cheviot, said of a rate cut by the Fed.



That includes gold – which hit a record high this week on expectations of a move by the Fed. Higher rates are generally viewed to be a drag on gold since they make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more attractive, although historically this has not always been the case. Gold is also used as a hedge against inflation (which can be pushed higher as rates go lower) and investors also buy the commodity in times of market stress.



Oil and other commodities, usually priced in dollars, often receive a boost with a rate cut as a lower cost of borrowing can stimulate an economy and increase demand.



Many emerging markets are more sensitive to these factors, making Fed moves even more important for them than bigger economies. Equity markets are also affected by moves by the Fed — and not just in the U.S.



Much of the global stock market volatility over recent months was linked to speculation over when, and by how much, the U.S. central bank will reduce rates.



“Interest rate cuts reduce the cost of borrowing in U.S. dollars, thereby creating easier liquidity conditions for companies around the world,” Quilter Cheviot’s Richard Carter continued via email.



“Lower U.S. interest rates should also lower the yield available on U.S. assets such as Treasurys, thus making other markets relatively more attractive,” he added.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a></a>First cut the deepest?</h2>



While markets are confident that the Fed will kick off its cutting cycle on Wednesday, there is considerable uncertainty over how far and fast it will move over the remaining three meetings this year and into 2025.



That includes whether the initial cut will reduce the Fed funds rate by 25 basis points or 50 basis points below its current 525 to 550 range. Over the last week, market pricing for the larger “jumbo” cut has leapt from under 50% to nearly 70%, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool.



 “Whatever the outcome, the markets will move,” Steven Bell, chief economist at Columbia Threadneedle, said in a Monday note.



“It is unusual for the Fed to leave the market guessing to this extent ahead of the meeting, especially so close to the U.S. presidential election. I can only presume that the committee itself is split,” Bell continued.



The November election has raised questions over the direction of U.S. fiscal policy, and how that could in turn impact inflation and monetary policy.



Joe Tuckey, head of foreign exchange analysis at Argentex, said that an initial 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed had historically “preceded some awful returns in equity markets,” notably in 2007 ahead of the Great Financial Crisis and in the early 2000s amid the tech bubble market rout.



“In essence, the need for a larger cut points toward growth concerns and economic trouble ahead,” Tuckey said.



However, Hani Redha, multi asset portfolio manager at PineBridge Investments, said it was “more critical” to look at pricing for more than 270 basis points worth of cuts through to the end of 2025.



“The economic data is still not decisive enough to give direction to the market,” Redha said, which was supporting defensive sectors.



“I think initially the reaction is going to be mixed, but probably equities can still hold up here until there’s a more decisive break in the economic data.”

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What a Fed rate cut could mean for the world

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1322" height="769" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/CBDC-image.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-531580" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/CBDC-image.jpg 1322w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/CBDC-image-300x175.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/CBDC-image-820x477.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/CBDC-image-155x90.jpg 155w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/CBDC-image-768x447.jpg 768w" sizes="(max-width: 1322px) 100vw, 1322px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Photo: via Reuters</figcaption></figure>



LONDON, Sept 17 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;A total of 134 countries representing 98% of the global economy are now exploring digital versions of their currencies, with almost half at an advanced stage and pioneers like China, the Bahamas and Nigeria starting to see a pick up in usage.



The research by the U.S.-based Atlantic Council think-tank published on Tuesday showed that all G20 nations are now looking into central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) as they are known and that 44 countries in total are piloting them.



That is up from 36 a year ago and is part of a global push by authorities to respond to declining cash usage and the threat to their money-printing powers from the likes of bitcoin and &#8216;Big Tech&#8217;.



The Atlantic Council&#8217;s Josh Lipsky and Ananya Kumar said one of the most noteable developments this year has been the sizable increase in the Bahamas, Jamaica and Nigeria&#8217;s CBDCs, the only three countries that have already launched them.



China too, which is running the world&#8217;s largest pilot scheme, has seen use of its protype e-CNY nearly quadruple to 7 trillion yuan ($987 billion) of transactions according to officials.



&#8220;There has been a narrative that the countries that have launched CBDCs have seen low or no usage, but in the last months we have seen a real uptake,&#8221; Lipsky said.



&#8220;My predication is that the PBOC (China&#8217;s central bank) will be close to full launch a year from now,&#8221; he added.



Other big advances have been the European Central Bank&#8217;s launch of a multi-year digital euro pilot and the United States, which has long dragged its feet on a digital dollar, joining a cross-border CBDC project with six other major central banks.



It still lags far behind nearly every other leading bank however Lipsky highlighted that it is one of the countries where privacy and other concerns about CBDCs are most vocal.



In May, the U.S. House of Representatives passed a bill prohibiting the direct issuance of a &#8216;retail&#8217; CBDC &#8211; the type used by the public. The Senate has not yet acted, but it remains a live issue in the presidential election campaign between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.



Since Russia&#8217;s invasion of Ukraine and the G7 sanctions response, &#8216;wholesale&#8217; bank-to-bank only CBDC projects have more than doubled in number to 13.



The fastest growing one, codenamed mBridge, connects CBDCs from China, Thailand, the UAE, Hong Kong and Saudi Arabia and is expected to expand to more countries this year.



Russia is unlikely to be one of them but its digital rouble pilot means it is now accepted in the Moscow metro and in some petrol stations. Iran is also working on a digital rial.



&#8220;No matter what happens with the U.S. election, the Fed is years behind,&#8221; Lipsky said.



($1 = 7.0930 Chinese yuan renminbi)



(Reporting by Marc Jones; Editing by Michael Perry)

CBDC-image

Central bank digital currency momentum growing, study shows

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1858" height="1045" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/108014585-17224590832024-07-31t204917z_998265604_rc2i69a6g2co_rtrmadp_0_usa-economy-fed.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-531172" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/108014585-17224590832024-07-31t204917z_998265604_rc2i69a6g2co_rtrmadp_0_usa-economy-fed.jpeg 1858w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/108014585-17224590832024-07-31t204917z_998265604_rc2i69a6g2co_rtrmadp_0_usa-economy-fed-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/108014585-17224590832024-07-31t204917z_998265604_rc2i69a6g2co_rtrmadp_0_usa-economy-fed-820x461.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/108014585-17224590832024-07-31t204917z_998265604_rc2i69a6g2co_rtrmadp_0_usa-economy-fed-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/108014585-17224590832024-07-31t204917z_998265604_rc2i69a6g2co_rtrmadp_0_usa-economy-fed-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/108014585-17224590832024-07-31t204917z_998265604_rc2i69a6g2co_rtrmadp_0_usa-economy-fed-1536x864.jpeg 1536w" sizes="(max-width: 1858px) 100vw, 1858px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks during a press conference following a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on interest rate policy in Washington, U.S., July 31, 2024.  Kevin Mohatt | Reuters</figcaption></figure>



Federal Reserve officials head into their policy meeting Tuesday closer to their goal of low inflation, but how much they will ease back on interest rates remains an open question.



A week’s worth of inflation data showed that price pressures have eased substantially since their meteoric rise in 2021-22. One gauge of consumer prices showed 12-month inflation at its lowest since February 2021, while wholesale price measures indicated pipeline price increases are mostly under control.



Both readings were certainly enough to clear the way for an interest rate cut at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, which concludes Wednesday with a rate decision and an updated forecast on where central bankers see things heading in the future.



“We got two more months of good inflation data” since the last Fed meeting, Claudia Sahm, chief economist for New Century Advisors, said in a CNBC interview Friday. “That’s what the Fed asked for.”



The question, though, turns now to how aggressively the Fed should act. Financial markets, which provide a guidepost on where the central bank is heading, were no help.



Futures markets for most of the past week had lasered in on a quarter percentage point, or 25 basis point, rate cut. However, that turned on Friday, with traders switching to an almost even chance of a either a 25- or a half point, or 50-basis point-reduction, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.



Sahm is among those who think the Fed should go bigger.



The inflation data “on its own would have gotten us 25 next week, as it should, and will get us a whole string of cuts after that,” she said. “The federal funds rate has been over 5%, has been there for over a year to fight inflation. That fight is won. They need to start getting out of the way.”



That means, Sahm said, starting off with a 50 basis-point reduction as a way to put a floor under potential labor market decay.



“The labor market [since] last July has gotten weaker,” she said. “So there’s an aspect of just recalibrating. We got some more information. [Fed officials] need to kind of clean it up, do a 50 basis point cut and then be ready to do more.”



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-confidence-about-inflation"><a></a>Confidence about inflation</h2>



The inflation reports indicate that the battle to bring inflation back down to 2% isn’t exactly over, but things are at least moving in the right direction.



The all-items consumer price index nudged up just 0.2% in August, putting the full-year inflation rate at 2.5%. Excluding food and energy, core inflation stood at 3.2%, a good deal farther away from the Fed’s target.



However, most of the core strength has come from stubbornly high shelter costs, boosted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ byzantine “owners equivalent rent” measure that asks homeowners what they could get if they rented out their residence. The yardstick, which comprises about 27% of the total CPI weighting, rose 5.4% from a year ago.



Despite lingering pressures, consumer surveys indicate confidence that inflation has been subdued if not completely arrested. Respondents to a University of Michigan survey in September expected inflation to run at 2.7% over the next 12 months, the lowest reading since December 2020.



Taking all the various inflation dynamics into account, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in late August that his “confidence has grown” that inflation is trending back to 2%.



That leaves employment. Powell said in the same speech, delivered at the Fed’s annual retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, that the Fed does “not seek or welcome further cooling in labor market conditions.”



The Fed has two jobs — stable prices and a healthy job market — and the primary mission looks about to change.



“If Powell wants to deliver on his, ‘we want no further weakening, no further cooling,’ they are going to have to, like, really move here, because that cooling trend is well established,” Sahm said. “Until it is interrupted, we are going to continue to see payrolls drift down and [the] unemployment rate drift up.”



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-the-case-for-a-quarter"><a></a>The case for a quarter</h2>



To be sure, there’s considerable sentiment for the Fed to lower by just a quarter-point at next week’s meeting, reflecting that the central bank still has more work to do on inflation, and that it is not overly worried about the labor market or a broader economic cooling.



“That’s really the key that they need to kind of hone in on, which is that they are normalizing policy and not trying to provide accommodation for an economy that is really in trouble,” said Tom Simons, U.S. economist at Jefferies. “I think they’ve done a very good job of expressing that point of view so far.”



Even with the quarter-point move, which Simons forecasts, the Fed would have plenty of room to do more later.



Indeed, market pricing anticipates rates could come down by 1.25 percentage points by the end of 2024, an indication of some sense of urgency at bringing benchmark borrowing costs down from their highest levels — currently 5.25% to 5.50% — in more than 23 years.



“The whole reason why they’ve been so cautious about cutting is because they’re concerned that inflation is going to come back,” Simons said. “Now, they have more confidence based on data that suggested [inflation] isn’t coming back right now. But they do need to be very careful to monitor potentially changing dynamics.”

108014585-17224590832024-07-31t204917z_998265604_rc2i69a6g2co_rtrmadp_0_usa-economy-fed

The Fed has the proof it wants that inflation is slowing, but the next move is still up in the air

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/107317102-16972206592023-10-13t180751z_489645272_rc2tr3a11orj_rtrmadp_0_usa-fed-powell-820x547.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-530230" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/107317102-16972206592023-10-13t180751z_489645272_rc2tr3a11orj_rtrmadp_0_usa-fed-powell-820x547.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/107317102-16972206592023-10-13t180751z_489645272_rc2tr3a11orj_rtrmadp_0_usa-fed-powell-300x200.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/107317102-16972206592023-10-13t180751z_489645272_rc2tr3a11orj_rtrmadp_0_usa-fed-powell-135x90.jpeg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/107317102-16972206592023-10-13t180751z_489645272_rc2tr3a11orj_rtrmadp_0_usa-fed-powell-768x512.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/107317102-16972206592023-10-13t180751z_489645272_rc2tr3a11orj_rtrmadp_0_usa-fed-powell-1536x1024.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/107317102-16972206592023-10-13t180751z_489645272_rc2tr3a11orj_rtrmadp_0_usa-fed-powell-scaled.jpeg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Photo: via CNBC</figcaption></figure>



The U.S. Federal Reserve’s easing cycle will be “mild” by historical standards when it starts cutting rates at its September policy meeting, ratings agency Fitch said in a note.



In its global economic outlook report for September, Fitch forecast 25-basis-point cut each at the central bank’s September and December meeting, before it slashes rates by 125 basis points in 2025 and 75 basis points in 2026.



This will add up to a total 250 basis points of cuts in 10 moves across 25 months, Fitch noted, adding that the median cut from peak rates to bottom in previous Fed easing cycles going up to the mid-1950s was 470 basis points, with a median duration of 8 months.



“One reason we expect Fed easing to proceed at a relatively gentle pace is that there is still work to do on inflation,” the report said.



This is because CPI inflation is still above the Fed’s stated inflation target of 2%.



Fitch also pointed out that the recent decline in the core inflation — which excludes prices of food and energy — rate mostly reflected the drop in automobile prices, which may not last.



U.S. inflation in August declined to its lowest level since February 2021, according to a Labor Department report Wednesday.



The consumer price index rose 2.5% year on year in August, coming in lower than the 2.6% expected by Dow Jones and hitting its lowest rate of increase in 3½ years. On a month-on-month basis, inflation rose 0.2% from July.



Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.3% for the month, slightly higher than the 0.2% estimate. The 12-month core inflation rate held at 3.2%, in line with the forecast.



Fitch also noted that “The inflation challenges faced by the Fed over the past three and a half years are also likely to engender caution among FOMC members. It took far longer than anticipated to tame inflation and gaps have been revealed in central banks’ understanding of what drives inflation.”



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-dovish-china-hawkish-japan"><a></a>Dovish China, hawkish Japan</h2>



In Asia, Fitch expects that rate cuts will continue in China, pointing out that the People’s Bank of China’s rate cut in July took market participants by surprise. The PBOC cut the 1-year MLF rate to 2.3% from 2.5% in July.



″[Expected] Fed rate cuts and the recent weakening of the US dollar has opened up some room for the PBOC to cut rates further,” the report said, adding that that deflationary pressures were becoming entrenched in China.



Fitch pointed out that “Producer prices, export prices and house prices are all falling and bond yields have been declining. Core CPI inflation has fallen to just 0.3% and we have lowered our CPI forecasts.”



It now expects China’s inflation rate to bet at 0.5% in 2024, down from 0.8% in its June outlook report.



The ratings agency forecast an additional 10 basis points of cuts in 2024, and another 20 basis points of cuts in 2025 for China.



On the other hand, Fitch noted that “The [Bank of Japan] is bucking the global trend of policy easing and hiked rates more aggressively than we had anticipated in July. This reflects its growing conviction that reflation is now firmly entrenched.”



With core inflation above the BOJ’s target for 23 straight months and companies prepared to grant “ongoing” and “sizable” wages, Fitch said that the situation was quite different from the “lost decade” in the 1990s when wages failed to grow amid persistent deflation.



This plays into the BOJ’s goal of a “virtuous wage-price cycle” — which boosts the BOJ’s confidence that it can continue to raise rates towards neutral settings.



Fitch expects the BOJ’s benchmark policy rate to reach 0.5% by the end of 2024 and 0.75% in 2025, adding “we expect the policy rate to reach 1% by end-2026, above consensus. A more hawkish BOJ could continue to have global ramifications.”

107317102-16972206592023-10-13t180751z_489645272_rc2tr3a11orj_rtrmadp_0_usa-fed-powell

Federal Reserve will opt for slow policy easing as there’s ‘still work to do’ on inflation, Fitch says

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="461" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/108032514-1726060173981-gettyimages-2169789390-TARGET_FLAGSHIP-820x461.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-529707" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/108032514-1726060173981-gettyimages-2169789390-TARGET_FLAGSHIP-820x461.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/108032514-1726060173981-gettyimages-2169789390-TARGET_FLAGSHIP-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/108032514-1726060173981-gettyimages-2169789390-TARGET_FLAGSHIP-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/108032514-1726060173981-gettyimages-2169789390-TARGET_FLAGSHIP-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/108032514-1726060173981-gettyimages-2169789390-TARGET_FLAGSHIP-1536x864.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/108032514-1726060173981-gettyimages-2169789390-TARGET_FLAGSHIP.jpeg 1600w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Photo: via CNBC</figcaption></figure>



Inflation in August declined to its lowest level since February 2021, according to a Labor Department report Wednesday that also showed a key measure higher than expected, setting the stage for an expected quarter percentage point rate cut from the Federal Reserve.



The consumer price index, a broad measure of goods and services costs across the U.S. economy, increased 0.2% for the month, in line with the Dow Jones consensus, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported.



That put the 12-month inflation rate at 2.5%, down 0.4 percentage point from the July level, slightly below the estimate for 2.6% and at its lowest level in 3½ years.



However, the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased 0.3% for the month, slightly higher than the 0.2% estimate. The 12-month core inflation rate held at 3.2%, in line with the forecast.



The slight uptick in core CPI keeps the Fed on defense against inflation, likely negating the probability of a more aggressive interest rate when policymakers meet next Tuesday and Wednesday.



“This isn’t the CPI report the market wanted to see. With core inflation coming in higher than expected, the Fed’s path to a 50 basis point cut has become more complicated,” said Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management.



Stocks slumped following the report, while Treasury yields were mixed. However, the market rebounded later in the day, recouping its losses as the major averages all turned positive.



In the fed funds futures market, traders priced in an 85% chance that the Federal Open Market Committee will approve a quarter percentage point, or 25 basis point, interest rate reduction when its meeting concludes Sept. 18, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch measure. A month ago, markets were leaning towards a 50 basis point cut.



“The number is certainly not an obstacle to policy action next week, but the hawks on the committee will likely seize on today’s CPI report as evidence that the last mile of inflation needs to be handled with care and caution – a formidable reason to default to a 25 basis points reduction,” Shah added.



While the numbers showed that inflation slowly continued to moderate, housing-related costs remain an issue. The shelter component of the CPI, which has about a one-third weighting in the index, climbed 0.5%, accounting for about 70% of the core increase. The shelter index was up 5.2% year over year.



Food prices rose just 0.1%, while energy costs slid 0.8%.



Elsewhere in the report, used vehicle prices decreased 1%, medical care services declined 0.1% and apparel prices increased 0.3%. Egg prices rose 4.8%.



Real earnings also increased for the month, with average hourly earnings outpacing the monthly CPI increase by 0.2%, the BLS said in a separate release. On a 12-month basis, inflation-adjusted average hourly earnings rose 1.3%.



The Fed’s attention of late, however, has turned to a slowing labor market. Job creation since April has slowed to nearly half what it was in the prior five months. Central bankers are saying that preventing a broader slowdown is now about as important as the fight against inflation, which in the summer of 2022 hit its highest level in more than 40 years.



Regardless of what the Fed decides when its meeting concludes next Wednesday, markets already are pricing in lower rates. Treasury yields, particularly at the 2- and 10-year duration, are at their lowest levels in more than a year. A recession indicator known as an inverted yield curve has reversed recently, a move that often portends both rate cuts from the Fed as well as a slowdown in the economy.



Wednesday’s report offered more evidence that inflation is waning, though it remains above the Fed’s 2% goal. There are pockets where prices either stayed elevated or turned higher.



“Although inflation has eased, it does not mean that the prices of things that people buy have actually fallen,” said Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS. “It just means that prices are not increasing as fast. In fact, U.S. consumers now are paying more than 20% more for goods and services than they were before the pandemic.”



Airline fares, for instance, increased 3.9% in August after falling the previous five months. Motor vehicle insurance also continued its trek higher, rising 0.6% to push the 12-month increase to 16.5%. Hospital and related services costs jumped 0.4% and are up 5.8% from last year.



At the same time, a pullback in energy costs has helped bring down inflation figures. Gasoline was off 0.6% in August and is down 10.3% from a year ago, part of a 4% slide in the energy index that has included a 12.1% tumble for fuel oil prices.

108032514-1726060173981-gettyimages-2169789390-TARGET_FLAGSHIP

U.S. consumer prices rose 0.2% in August as annual inflation rate hits lowest since early 2021

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="548" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/7BCG6QNXMJLJZG2Q5Z4UAZGMHE-820x548.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-529650" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/7BCG6QNXMJLJZG2Q5Z4UAZGMHE-820x548.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/7BCG6QNXMJLJZG2Q5Z4UAZGMHE-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/7BCG6QNXMJLJZG2Q5Z4UAZGMHE-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/7BCG6QNXMJLJZG2Q5Z4UAZGMHE-768x513.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/7BCG6QNXMJLJZG2Q5Z4UAZGMHE-1536x1026.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/7BCG6QNXMJLJZG2Q5Z4UAZGMHE-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield attends a United Nations Security Council meeting about the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza, at the U.N. headquarters in New York City, U.S., September 4, 2024. REUTERS/David &#8216;Dee&#8217; Delgado/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



UNITED NATIONS, Sept 12 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;The United States supports creating two permanent United Nations Security Council seats for African states and one seat to be rotated among small island developing states, U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Linda Thomas-Greenfield will announce on Thursday.



The move comes as the U.S. seeks to repair ties with Africa, where many are unhappy about Washington&#8217;s support for Israel&#8217;s war in Gaza, and deepen relations with Pacific Islands nations important to countering Chinese influence in the region.



Thomas-Greenfield told Reuters she hopes the announcement will &#8220;move this agenda forward in a way that we can achieve Security Council reform at some point in the future,&#8221; describing it as part of U.S. President Joe Biden&#8217;s legacy.



The push for two permanent African seats and a rotating seat for small island developing states is in addition to Washington&#8217;s long-held support for India, Japan and Germany to also get permanent seats on the council.



Developing nations have long demanded permanent seats on the Security Council, the most powerful body in the United Nations. But years of talks on reform have proved fruitless and it is unclear whether U.S. support could fuel action.



Ahead of making the announcement at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York on Thursday, Thomas-Greenfield clarified to Reuters that Washington does not support expanding veto power beyond the five countries that hold it.



The Security Council is charged with maintaining international peace and security and has the power to impose sanctions and arms embargos and authorize the use of force.



When the U.N. was founded in 1945, the Security Council had 11 members. This increased in 1965 to 15 members, made up of 10 elected states serving two-year terms and five permanent veto-wielding nations: Russia, China, France, the U.S. and Britain.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-legitimacy-problem">LEGITIMACY PROBLEM</h2>



U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres backs Security Council reform.



&#8220;You have a Security Council that corresponds exactly to the situation after the Second World War &#8230; that has a problem of legitimacy, and that has a problem of effectiveness, and it needs to be reformed,&#8221; Guterres told Reuters on Wednesday.



Any changes to the Security Council membership is done by amending the founding U.N. Charter. This needs the approval and ratification by two-thirds of the General Assembly, including the Security Council&#8217;s current five veto powers.



The 193-member U.N. General Assembly has annually discussed reform of the Security Council for more than a decade. But momentum has grown in recent years as geopolitical rivalries have deadlocked the council on several issues, particularly after permanent veto-wielding member Russia invaded Ukraine.



&#8220;Much of the conversation around Security Council reform has been just that: a conversation,&#8221; Thomas-Greenfield will say on Thursday, according to prepared remarks reviewed by Reuters of her announcement that Washington supports moving to negotiations on a draft text to amend the U.N. Charter to expand the council.



Thomas-Greenfield told Reuters she could not say how long it might take to get the General Assembly to vote on such a resolution.



Each year the General Assembly elects five new members from different geographical groups for two-year terms on the Security Council. Africa currently has three seats rotated among states.



&#8220;The problem is, these non-permanent seats don&#8217;t enable African countries to deliver the full benefit of their knowledge and voices to the work of the council &#8230; to consistently lead on the challenges that affect all of us &#8211; and disproportionately affect Africans,&#8221; Thomas-Greenfield will say.



She will also say that small island developing states deserve a rotating elected seat because they offer &#8220;critical insights on a range of international peace and security issues: including, notably, the impact of climate change.&#8221;



(Reporting by Michelle Nichols; Editing by Don Durfee and Tom Hogue)

FILE PHOTO: UN Security Council meeting in New York

US supports two permanent UN Security Council seats for Africa

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="800" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/TJORLERHRFO4NIRPMFSZ32CFMA.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-529012" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/TJORLERHRFO4NIRPMFSZ32CFMA.jpg 800w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/TJORLERHRFO4NIRPMFSZ32CFMA-300x205.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/TJORLERHRFO4NIRPMFSZ32CFMA-132x90.jpg 132w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/TJORLERHRFO4NIRPMFSZ32CFMA-768x525.jpg 768w" sizes="(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: An oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia, June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



LONDON, Sept 10 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;OPEC on Tuesday cut its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024 reflecting data received so far this year and also trimmed its expectation for next year, marking the producer group&#8217;s second consecutive downward revision.



The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries in a monthly report said world oil demand will rise by 2.03 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024, down from growth of 2.11 million bpd it expected last month.



There is a wider than usual split between forecasters on the strength of oil demand growth in 2024, partly due to differences over China and more broadly over the pace of the world&#8217;s transition to cleaner fuels. The reduction still leaves OPEC at the top end of industry estimates.



&#8220;Looking ahead, China&#8217;s economic growth is expected to remain well supported,&#8221; OPEC said in the report.



&#8220;However, headwinds in the real estate sector and the increasing penetration of LNG trucks and electric vehicles are likely to weigh on diesel and gasoline demand going forward.&#8221;



OPEC also cut its 2025 global demand growth estimate to 1.74 million bpd from 1.78 million bpd.



(Reporting by Alex Lawler; editing by Jason Neely)

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The East and Gulf coast ports strike could be a no-win situation for the Biden administration

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Iran launches missile attack on Israel for killing of Hezbollah leader, general

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Biden to travel to Germany, Angola next month

Fed slashes interest rates by a half point, an aggressive start to its first easing campaign in four years

What a Fed rate cut could mean for the world

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The Fed has the proof it wants that inflation is slowing, but the next move is still up in the air

Federal Reserve will opt for slow policy easing as there’s ‘still work to do’ on inflation, Fitch says

U.S. consumer prices rose 0.2% in August as annual inflation rate hits lowest since early 2021

US supports two permanent UN Security Council seats for Africa

OPEC again lowers 2024, 2025 global oil demand growth view

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