A (brief) history of the world’s trade wars  | CNBC Reports

Ashley Turner
Source: <a href="http://https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/30/watch-trump-holds-joint-press-conference-with-nigerian-president.html">Watch: Trump holds joint press conference with Nigerian president</a>

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President Donald Trump is set to host a joint press conference with President Muhammadu Buhari of Nigeria on Monday afternoon. Buhari&#8217;s visit to the White House marks Trump&#8217;s <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/105164875?__source=cnbcafrica|inline|story|&amp;par=cnbcafrica &amp;doc="> 
first official visit 
</a> from an African head of state. 
Trump reportedly called African nations &#8220;s&#8212;hole countries&#8221; in January. Weeks ago, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson visited Nigeria and other African countries – a visit that many saw as an attempt to sooth relations after Trump&#8217;s alleged comments.
White House Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/statement-press-secretary-visit-president-muhammadu-buhari-nigeria/">said in a statement</a> that Trump looks forward to advancing U.S. and Nigeria&#8217;s shared priorities: promoting economic growth and reforms, fighting terrorism and other threats to peace and security, and building on Nigeria&#8217;s role as a democratic leader in the region.

Watch: Trump holds joint press conference with Nigerian president

Justina Crabtree
Source: <a href="http://https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/30/trump-white-house-to-host-nigeria-president-buhari.html">Trump is hosting the president of Africa&#8217;s biggest oil state</a>
<ul>
<li>President Donald Trump is hosting Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari at the White House Monday.</li>
<li>The event will mark Trump&#8217;s first official visit from an African head of state.</li>
<li>Last April, the Trump administration tied up a $600 million deal with Nigeria over the sale of military aircraft intended to be used in the fight against Islamic extremist group Boko Haram.</li>
</ul>
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://media.cnbc.com/i/applications/cnbc.com/resources/img/editorial/2018/04/20/105146027-RTX5RVL8r.1910x1000.jpg" alt="" height="1000" width="1910" data-licensor-name="Kevin Lamarque | Reuters"/>
President Donald Trump is hosting Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari at the <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/10001079?__source=cnbcafrica|inline|story|&amp;par=cnbcafrica &amp;doc="> 
White House 
</a> Monday in what will be his first official visit from an African head of state.
The &#8220;struggle against Islamic terrorism in the Sahel,&#8221; an area to the far north of Nigeria, as well as a &#8220;White House attempt to make nice to Africa after a series of false steps,&#8221; could be part of the agenda, John Campbell, U.S. ambassador to Nigeria from 2004 to 2007 and now a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, told CNBC last week. Campbell emphasized that his suggestions were just &#8220;speculation&#8221; and that he has no connection with the present U.S. administration.
In January of this year Trump is alleged to have referred to African nations as &#8220;s&#8212;hole countries,&#8221; which the White House later did not deny.
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://media.cnbc.com/i/applications/cnbc.com/resources/img/editorial/2018/04/27/105164819-GettyImages-945930968.1910x1000.jpg" alt="" height="1000" width="1910" data-licensor-name="Pius Utomi Ekpei | AFP | Getty Images"/>
The invite to Buhari was issued earlier this month, with the intention for both leaders to discuss promoting economic growth, fighting terrorism and &#8220;building on Nigeria&#8217;s role as a democratic leader in the region,&#8221; a White House communique <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/statement-press-secretary-visit-president-muhammadu-buhari-nigeria/">said</a>.
Nigeria has seen its economy hammered in recent years by the volatile oil price, plunging into its first annual recession in 25 years in 2016. Gross domestic product growth for 2018 is forecast to be 2.1 percent by the <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/10000936?__source=cnbcafrica|inline|story|&amp;par=cnbcafrica &amp;doc="> 
International Monetary Fund 
</a>.
Nonetheless, Nigeria competes with South Africa for the title of the largest economy in sub-Saharan Africa and is the continent&#8217;s most populous nation, with 200 million inhabitants.
Last April, the Trump administration tied up a $600 million deal with Nigeria over the sale of military aircraft intended to be used in the fight against Islamic extremist group Boko Haram. The deal dates back to former President Barack Obama&#8216;s tenure, but was delayed over human rights concerns.
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://media.cnbc.com/i/applications/cnbc.com/resources/img/editorial/2018/04/27/105164863-GettyImages-931374264.1910x1000.jpg" alt="" height="1000" width="1910" data-licensor-name="Nigerian presidency press office | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images"/>
Nigeria imports most from China, whose share of total imports accounts for more than double that of the U.S., according to the <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/10000939?__source=cnbcafrica|inline|story|&amp;par=cnbcafrica &amp;doc="> 
World Bank 
</a>.
Buhari&#8217;s last foreign visit was to London for the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting last week, at which he said he&#8217;d <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/105142820?__source=cnbcafrica|inline|story|&amp;par=cnbcafrica &amp;doc="> 
met with Shell 
</a> for talks to help secure a potential $15 billion investment in his country.
Buhari, 75, is a former military leader. He was elected president in 2015 in what signified the first time an opposition party had won an election in Nigeria. Earlier this month it was announced that Buhari would contest the presidency once again when Nigeria heads to the polls next year.
&#8220;For Buhari it is advantageous to be seen to be active at the highest world stage while his campaign for re-election in 2019 builds steam,&#8221; Philip Walker, Nigeria analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit, told CNBC.

Trump is hosting the president of Africa’s biggest oil state

Justina Crabtree
Source: <a href="http://https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/27/south-africa-workers-protest-minimum-wage-ramaphosa-reassures.html">Protests grip South Africa as introduction of minimum income dubbed &#8216;poverty wage&#8217; is delayed</a>
<ul>
<li>Nationwide protests hit South Africa this week over a proposed minimum wage.</li>
<li>President Cyril Ramaphosa has pushed a minimum income of R20 ($1.62) per hour — a figure that compromises on what businesses and workers have put forward.</li>
<li>&#8220;The president recognizes that the national minimum wage is not a living wage, but we need to start somewhere,&#8221; Ramaphosa&#8217;s spokeswoman Khusela Diko said.</li>
<li>South Africa is one of the most unequal societies in the world.</li>
</ul>
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://media.cnbc.com/i/applications/cnbc.com/resources/img/editorial/2018/04/27/105165163-GettyImages-951075784.1910x1000.jpg" alt="" height="1000" width="1910" data-licensor-name="Rodger Bosch | AFP | Getty Images"/>
Disagreement over a proposed minimum wage in South Africa has led to mass protests and reassurances from the presidency this week.
President Cyril Ramaphosa met with officials from the labor ministry on Thurday, following protests the previous day that mobilized workers across the country including in the cities of Cape Town, Durban and Johannesburg.
Ramaphosa has been pushing a minimum wage of R20 ($1.62) per hour, a policy that was scheduled to be implemented on May 1 though the draft legislation was since delayed in parliament. The initiative dates back to Ramaphosa&#8217;s days as deputy president under former South African leader Jacob Zuma.
The minimum wage is intended to alleviate inequality and stabilize labor. But, the South African Federation of Trade Unions (SAFTU), the group behind the strike, described it as a &#8220;poverty wage on which no-one should be expected to live&#8221; in a press release Sunday. The minimum wage &#8220;legitimizes the unequal apartheid wage structure,&#8221; it added.
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://media.cnbc.com/i/applications/cnbc.com/resources/img/editorial/2018/02/27/105031798-GettyImages-916957534.1910x1000.jpg" alt="" height="1000" width="1910" data-licensor-name="Rodger Bosch | AFP | Getty Images"/>
&#8220;The president recognizes that the national minimum wage is not a living wage, but we need to start somewhere,&#8221; Ramaphosa&#8217;s spokeswoman Khusela Diko said, as reported by Reuters.
SAFTU, the second-largest group of its kind in the country, instead proposes a living wage of R12,500 per month — three times that of the intended minimum wage in monthly terms.
South Africa is one of the most unequal societies in the world. According to the <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/10000939?__source=cnbcafrica|inline|story|&amp;par=cnbcafrica &amp;doc="> 
World Bank 
</a>, the poorest 20 percent of South Africans consume less than 3 percent of the country&#8217;s total expenditure. Meanwhile, the wealthiest 20 percent account for 65 percent.
Wages aside, the nation is also known for its rampant unemployment, currently at 26.7 percent according to Statistics South Africa.
But not all trade unions back the protests. Matthew Parks, deputy parliamentary co-ordinator of the Congress of South African Trade Unions — the largest of such groups — described the R20 minimum wage as a &#8220;huge victory&#8221; given that businesses had originally pushed for R11.
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://media.cnbc.com/i/applications/cnbc.com/resources/img/editorial/2018/04/27/105165175-GettyImages-951076380.1910x1000.jpg" alt="" height="1000" width="1910" data-licensor-name="Rodger Bosch | AFP | Getty Images"/>
&#8220;It&#8217;s a start, not the end,&#8221; he told CNBC Friday, adding that &#8220;the president played a key role in supporting us.&#8221;
The minimum wage dispute might not equal a setback to Ramaphosa&#8217;s leadership, which was widely cheered following the abrupt end to the corruption-tainted, unpopular Zuma administration in February.
&#8220;Facilitating negotiations, with the aim of reaching consensus — including over difficult issues — is a key theme of Ramaphosa&#8217;s presidency,&#8221; Pat Thaker, editorial director for the Middle East and Africa at the analysis firm Economist Intelligence Unit, told CNBC on Friday.
She added that a national minimum wage could benefit Ramaphosa by tackling deep-rooted inequality and poverty as well as giving his African National Congress party an &#8220;electoral boost in 2019,&#8221; when the country next heads to the polls.

Protests grip South Africa as introduction of minimum income dubbed ‘poverty wage’ is delayed

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Justina Crabtree
Source: <a href="http://https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/25/africa-needs-to-know-what-it-wants-from-china-expert-says.html">Africa needs to know what it wants from China, expert says. Here are two key issues</a>
<ul>
<li>China has poured billions of dollars into Africa&#8217;s development, but an expert CNBC spoke to said that the continent&#8217;s countries needed a two-pronged approach to properly benefit.</li>
<li>&#8220;Most African countries don&#8217;t have a strategy vis-a-vis China,&#8221; Ibrahima Diong, Senegal-born former regional co-ordinator for Africa at the World Bank, told CNBC.</li>
<li>The seventh meeting of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation is scheduled for this September in Beijing.</li>
</ul>
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://media.cnbc.com/i/applications/cnbc.com/resources/img/editorial/2018/04/25/105157701-GettyImages-528124902.1910x1000.jpg" alt="" height="1000" width="1910" data-licensor-name="Per-Anders Pettersson | Corbis News | Getty Images"/>
China has poured tens of billions of dollars into Africa&#8217;s development, but the continent&#8217;s countries need a better strategy in order to properly reap the benefits, according to an expert.
&#8220;China knows what it wants from Africa,&#8221; Ibrahima Diong, Senegal-born former regional co-ordinator for Africa at the <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/10000939?__source=cnbcafrica|inline|story|&amp;par=cnbcafrica &amp;doc="> 
World Bank 
</a>, told CNBC on Friday.
&#8220;But, most African countries don&#8217;t have a strategy vis-a-vis China.&#8221;
For Diong, who has served as a China adviser to the Senegalese president and is currently chief executive of consulting firm Africa Consulting &amp; Trading Afrique Group, African countries need to adopt a two-pronged approach to managing China funded-development.
African nations must make sure that such projects &#8220;will actually boost economic growth on the continent,&#8221; he said.
&#8220;If you have energy problems, infrastructure, railways, and yet you go to China to get money to build a stadium — I&#8217;m not saying it&#8217;s not important — or to build a palace, the question is: who do you blame, the Chinese or actually the country that does not make sure that the support of the investment goes to areas that are actually being productive to the economy?&#8221;
The second stumbling block for African countries to address is negotiation, Diong said. &#8220;They have to make sure that they&#8217;re actually protecting their interests.&#8221; Strength comes from African unity, and the collective understanding that, &#8220;We are a sizeable market, how do we make sure that we negotiate with China?&#8221; he added.
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://media.cnbc.com/i/applications/cnbc.com/resources/img/editorial/2018/04/25/105157713-GettyImages-690955828.1910x1000.jpg" alt="" height="1000" width="1910" data-licensor-name="Tony Karumba | AFP | Getty Images"/>
China is known for building infrastructure projects in Africa as part of its Belt and Road Initiative, a multi-billion dollar plan to resurrect ancient trading routes centred on China. The African Union headquarters in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, is also Chinese built.
But, the Asian superpower has been accused of not hiring enough local African labor, or else exploiting those that they do, for example by paying too-low wages or not providing favorable working conditions.
The seventh meeting of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation is scheduled for this September in Beijing. The first took place in 2000. The last summit in 2015 resulted in Chinese President Xi Jinping pledging $60 billion to industrialize the African continent.
African countries&#8217; policy on China should be better integrated into governments, Diong said. &#8220;Most of the African countries should have at least a China desk — or a China ministry,&#8221; he said, adding that regional bodies such as the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) also needed to &#8220;help their member countries to get their strategy right.&#8221;
Development in Africa needs to &#8220;leave something behind so we don&#8217;t have to depend on the Chinese over and over again,&#8221; Diong said. &#8220;That&#8217;s really a matter for the Africans themselves, getting better organized.&#8221;
Diong said that Africa needed to hold China &#8220;accountable,&#8221; and ensure that financing was directed into sectors that would be most economically beneficial, such as energy and infrastructure.
The issue is about &#8220;knowing what you want, knowing how you get it,&#8221; he added.

Africa needs to know what it wants from China, expert says. Here are two key issues

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Justina Crabtree
Source: <a href="http://https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/23/china-does-not-have-to-ask-anyone-for-respect-ghanas-president-says.html">China does not have to ask anyone for respect, Ghana’s president says</a>
<ul>
<li>Nana Akufo-Addo pinpointed China&#8217;s development story Saturday in a speech that promoted intra-African economic co-operation.</li>
<li>He also extolled African unity as a means of generating economic prosperity.</li>
</ul>
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://media.cnbc.com/i/applications/cnbc.com/resources/img/editorial/2018/04/23/105151583-GettyImages-949191316.1910x1000.jpg" alt="" height="1000" width="1910" data-licensor-name="Dominika Zarzycka | NurPhoto | Getty Images"/>
Ghanian President Nana Akufo-Addo pinpointed China&#8217;s development story Saturday in a speech that promoted intra-African economic co-operation.
&#8220;China does not ask anyone for respect now,&#8221; he said, referring to foreign students&#8217; enthusiasm for learning Mandarin as evidence of Beijing&#8217;s influence.
&#8220;We&#8217;ve run out of excuses for the state of our continent,&#8221; Akufo-Addo added, speaking at the London School of Economics. &#8220;If we work at it, if we stop being beggars, and spend Africa&#8217;s monies inside the continent, Africa will not need to ask for respect from anyone.&#8221;
China&#8217;s influence in Africa is more nuanced than simply providing loans and building infrastructure. <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/105114262?__source=cnbcafrica|inline|story|&amp;par=cnbcafrica &amp;doc="> 
Ethiopia 
</a> — among the world&#8217;s fastest growing economies with gross domestic product (GDP) expansion at 10.9 percent in 2017 — espouses a China-style state-led development model, for example.
Akufo-Addo also extolled African unity as a means of generating economic prosperity.
&#8220;Africa is losing annually more than $50 billion United States dollars through illicit financial outflows,&#8221; he said, referring to a <a href="https://www.uneca.org/sites/default/files/PublicationFiles/iff_main_report_26feb_en.pdf">United Nations report</a> led by former South African President Thabo Mbeki. &#8220;The dispiriting part of the story, of course, is the fact that some Africans are complicit.
&#8220;It is clear that we are not well-equipped to cope with those who come to conduct business in our countries with the aim of making extraordinary returns through unorthodox and illegal means.&#8221;
Akufo-Addo also highlighted the importance of a nascent <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/105076688?__source=cnbcafrica|inline|story|&amp;par=cnbcafrica &amp;doc="> 
pan-African free trade agreement 
</a> proposed by the African Union.
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://media.cnbc.com/i/applications/cnbc.com/resources/img/editorial/2018/04/06/105114344-GettyImages-144865684.1910x1000.jpg" alt="" height="1000" width="1910" data-licensor-name="Jenny Vaughan | AFP | Getty Images"/>
&#8220;The free trade area will succeed as we transform the structure of our economies from economies that are dependent on the production and export of raw materials to value-adding economies,&#8221; he said. &#8220;Trade, then, is made not on the basis of raw material exports but on the basis of things we make. That is the surest route to prosperity.&#8221;
Less than 20 percent of trade in Africa is internal at present. At a March summit of African Union members in Kigali, Rwanda, 44 countries signed up to the pact — although, notably, two of the continent&#8217;s major economies, South Africa and Nigeria, did not. If implemented, the agreement would establish the largest trading bloc in terms of member countries since the formation of the World Trade Organization (WHO).
Ghana itself is among Africa&#8217;s <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/105067242?__source=cnbcafrica|inline|story|&amp;par=cnbcafrica &amp;doc="> 
fastest growing economies 
</a>. In 2017, its GDP grew by 8.4 percent, more than double that of the previous year as the West African country expanded its oil production. But, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) anticipates more modest growth this year of 6.3 percent.
Akufo-Addo made headlines in December for saying that it was &#8220;not right&#8221; for Ghana to depend on European funding during a press conference with French President Emmanuel Macron.

China does not have to ask anyone for respect, Ghana’s president says

Dr. Michael Ivanovitch
Source: <a href="http://https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/23/the-us-is-losing-an-unassailable-600-billion-trade-case--commentary.html">The US is losing an unassailable $600 billion trade case</a>
<ul>
<li>With their growing surpluses on American trades, China, Japan and the European Union are defying U.S. trade policies — and getting away with it.</li>
<li>China says it is &#8220;locked and loaded&#8221; to &#8220;fight to the end&#8221; on its trade issues with the U.S.</li>
<li>German Chancellor Angela Merkel&#8217;s upcoming visit to Washington should be used to make an example-setting deal for a new architecture of fair and reciprocal trade.</li>
</ul>
Before coming to Florida last week to talk trade, plan out East Asian security and play a round of golf, Japan&#8217;s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe kicked off in Tokyo a series of meetings with China visiting State Councillor Wang Yi.
The meetings were set to strengthen the Sino-Japanese &#8220;strategic relationship of mutual benefit,&#8221; to expand a $300 billion bilateral trade and to increase further the flow of 7.3 million Chinese visitors to Japan.
Abe also welcomed the impending visit to Japan of China&#8217;s Premier Li Keqiang to (a) set up a trilateral free trade area with China and South Korea, (b) conclude the agreement on an East Asian Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, (c) join China&#8217;s erstwhile shunned <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/104958552?__source=cnbcafrica|inline|story|&amp;par=cnbcafrica &amp;doc="> 
Belt and Road 
</a> infrastructure projects, (d) promote multilateral trade and (e) fight trade protectionism.
Clear messages, aren&#8217;t they?
And then, while in Florida, Abe insisted on keeping the U.S.-Japan trade in a broad multilateral framework, fearing that President Donald Trump preference for a bilateral deal would make a big dent in Japan&#8217;s $68.8 billion trade surplus on American trades.
<h4>China should golf instead of spoiling for a fight</h4>
Promising to Trump an &#8220;honest trade relationship,&#8221; Abe asked him to include Pyongyang&#8217;s short- and medium-range missiles in the forthcoming disarmament negotiations, and to get back to Japan the people North Koreans allegedly abducted.
I wonder whether he also told Trump that Japan&#8217;s high-ranking officials from foreign, defense and other government agencies were conducting consultations in Sendai, Japan last Thursday and Friday with their Chinese counterparts on contested maritime borders in the South China Sea. That comes close on the heels of a similar meeting in Shanghai last December, showing that a Sino-Japanese &#8220;strategic relationship of mutual benefit&#8221; may be heating up while Tokyo feels secure under the U.S. defense umbrella and enjoys full access to American markets.
China is not interested in the bourgeois game of golfing. No, Beijing says it is &#8220;locked and loaded&#8221; to retaliate and &#8220;fight to the end&#8221; in what it sees as an unfolding &#8220;trade war&#8221; with America.
That is an interesting negotiating posture for a country that ran a $375 billion trade surplus with the U.S. last year. And this year could be much worse. The American trade deficit with China in January and February was running at an annual rate of $391.2 billion — a 20 percent increase over the same period of 2017.
In spite of that, there is nothing in China&#8217;s official statements to indicate that Beijing intends to bring those surpluses down. One can only see a belligerent defiance, promises to open up, to cling to multilateral trade and to pursue a &#8220;win-win cooperation.&#8221;
Will Washington settle for that? Or is Trump ready to make good on his promise to give China a pass on trade for help with North Korea nukes?
<h4>Merkel for a Mar-a-Lago weekend</h4>
If true, that would be a huge mistake. There are no trade offs here. Beijing will not sell North Korea down the river in exchange for Trump&#8217;s leniency on large, and growing, trade deficits with China. And neither will China suffocate Pyongyang for Washington&#8217;s favors, whatever those might be.
Pyongyang said it is suspending nuclear and ballistic missile tests on a site that had reportedly become unusable. It also claims that no further tests are necessary — presumably for now. What will follow — if all goes well — is a long negotiating process where China will support North Korea&#8217;s demands for iron-clad security guarantees and the dismantling of the sanctions regime in exchange for gradual measures of nuclear disarmament.
There are no ultimatums for quick fixes here. There is only a devilishly difficult, long and uncertain high-stakes bargaining among actors deeply suspicious of each other&#8217;s sincerity and intentions.
But let&#8217;s get back to the trade issue. Even on a heroic assumption that the expected U.S.-North Korean summit, midwifed by China, is a resounding success, Washington still could not ignore the size and the pace of increase of its trade deficit with Beijing.
The European Union, for its part, is also threatening retaliations in spite of a $151.4 billion trade surplus with the U.S. last year.
The silver lining is that German Chancellor Angela Merkel knows better. She dispatched her vice chancellor to Washington last week to talk trade and prepare the ground for her one-day visit to the White House on Friday, April 27.
Trump would do well to show more understanding for EU trades and more warmth for Merkel. About one-fifth of American exports go to the EU. In January and February, the U.S. sales to the EU were growing at an annual rate of 9 percent — while falling 1.5 percent to China. Over the same period, American exports to Germany soared 12 percent.
Germany may not oblige its estranged cousin Trump with Chevys on its autobahns, but show more courtesy and extend Merkel&#8217;s Friday visit for a Mar-a-Lago weekend, and you might see a flood of sun-starved Germans to Florida. Also, keep in mind that Germans believe &#8220;alte Liebe rostet nicht&#8221; – old love does not rust.
<h4>Investment thoughts</h4>
China, Japan and the EU are defying Trump&#8217;s trade policies — and are getting away with it. Last year, on Trump&#8217;s watch, they ran a combined $595.4 billion surplus on their American trades — a 5.8 percent increase from 2016.
And things are now getting worse. With the U.S. domestic demand revving up a bit, America&#8217;s trade gap this year could be much wider. In January and February, the U.S. trade deficit with those three large economic systems, accounting for about 40 percent of world&#8217;s demand and output, was running at an annual rate of $612.3 billion, a 3 percent increase from the same period of 2017.
What can Washington do?
First, stop threatening. But do make sure that everybody understands the U.S. won&#8217;t be the dumping ground of the world, with systematic losses of wealth, jobs and proprietary technology.
Second, make a deal with Germany to cut U.S. trade deficits by boosting American exports to the EU while replacing a significant part of imports with products generated by European companies in their U.S. production facilities.
Japan would follow suit by stepping up supplies from its U.S.-based manufacturing outlets. But whether Tokyo will open up its markets to American goods and services will depend on Washington&#8217;s implementation of rules of reciprocity.
Third, watching all this, China would understand that it has to cooperate, provided Washington stops linking strategic security issues with what Beijing should normally do as a responsible world trader.
Remember, the Chinese realize that no trade concession on their part can wish away acute U.S.-China questions, such as Taiwan, contested maritime borders in the South China Sea, the sequels to the Korean War and &#8220;strategically competitive&#8221; issues in the Indo-Pacific region and beyond.
Talk reciprocal nickels and dimes with Beijing, and make sure that the people we call our friends and allies are following the same approach. The U.S. can&#8217;t have monumental trade issues with China while its closest allies are flocking to Beijing for lucrative &#8220;golden era&#8221; relationships. If that continues, Washington will be left holding the bag.
The Chinese are in an untenable situation where they live off their main trade partners while advocating globalization, multilateralism and the empty shell of &#8220;win-win cooperation.&#8221; If they continue on that path, they will discredit China&#8217;s remarkable achievements accomplished over decades of hard and smart work to save, produce and sell to willing buyers around the world.

Commentary by Michael Ivanovitch, an independent analyst focusing on world economy, geopolitics and investment strategy. He served as a senior economist at the OECD in Paris, international economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and taught economics at Columbia Business School.

The US is losing an unassailable $600 billion trade case

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By <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/nyshka-chandran/">Nyshka Chandran</a>, Reporter, CNBC Asia-Pacific
<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/south-africa/">South Africa&#8217;s</a> investor appeal is experiencing a robust recovery under the two-month old government of President <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/27/ramaphosa-cabinet-reshuffle-sees-investor-favorites-return-to-run-south-africa-economy.html">Cyril Ramaphosa</a>, the country&#8217;s Reserve Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago said on Thursday.
Since Ramaphosa took power, both business and consumer confidence have improved, Kganyago told CNBC&#8217;s Joumanna Bercetche at the IMF and World Bank spring meetings in <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/washington-dc/">Washington</a>.
The positive momentum is also reflected in financial markets. &#8220;We saw bond yields decline, the currency strengthen so there is positive investor sentiment in South Africa and that, of course, lays a basis for a cyclical recovery,&#8221; Kganyago said.
Ramaphosa, the successor to <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/16/south-africas-new-era-of-leadership-could-surprise-and-make-it-a-good-place-to-put-money.html">embattled former leader Jacob Zuma</a>, is widely regarded as a pro-business politician committed to fighting graft and boosting foreign investment. Once a top performing emerging market, the economy took a hit under Zuma, who was criticized for heavy <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/video/2017/04/04/sp-south-africa-government-divisions-could-erode-business-trust.html">government interference in business affairs</a>.
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Also encouraging was the government&#8217;s tabling of a budget, which is setting <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/21/south-africa-raises-vat-for-the-first-time-in-25-years.html">a path for fiscal consolidation</a>, and the fact that Moody&#8217;s revised its credit outlook to stable from negative last month, Kganyago continued.
Ramaphosa this week announced a drive to attract more than $100 billion in foreign investments — a target that Kganyago called &#8220;aspirational.&#8221;
[bc_video video_id=&#8221;5771816801001&#8243; account_id=&#8221;1571595826001&#8243; player_id=&#8221;962b8774-5f97-47fd-81a6-837da7aecf49&#8243; embed=&#8221;in-page&#8221; padding_top=&#8221;56%&#8221; autoplay=&#8221;&#8221; min_width=&#8221;0px&#8221; max_width=&#8221;640px&#8221; width=&#8221;100%&#8221; height=&#8221;100%&#8221;]
While the country has been enjoying steady portfolio investment, foreign direct investment will take longer, the central bank head said, adding that once a suitable domestic environment is created, Ramaphosa&#8217;s goal will be achievable.
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Reserve Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago: What investors now think of SA

Justina Crabtree
Source: <a href="http://https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/19/nigeria-president-buhari-hints-at-15-billion-shell-deal.html">Nigeria&#8217;s Buhari hints at $15 billion deal with Shell, says &#8216;we are not doing too badly&#8217;</a>
<ul>
<li>Nigeria&#8217;s President Muhammadu Buhari met with Shell on Wednesday as part of talks that could lead to a $15 billion investment in his country.</li>
<li>Oil accounts for approximately 35 percent of Nigeria&#8217;s gross domestic product, according to OPEC.</li>
</ul>
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://media.cnbc.com/i/applications/cnbc.com/resources/img/editorial/2018/04/19/105143037-GettyImages-948149624.1910x1000.jpg" alt="" height="1000" width="1910" data-licensor-name="Daniel Leal | Olivas-WPA Pool | Getty Images"/>
Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari met with ShellRDSA-GB on Wednesday as part of talks he said were to secure $15 billion of investment in his country.
&#8220;I saw Shell Group, they came here, they saw me, they are preparing to invest $15 billion in Nigeria… so really, we are not doing too badly,&#8221; Buhari said to applause at the Commonwealth Business Forum in London on Wednesday. He was speaking as part of a panel on the ease of doing business between Commonwealth countries.
Shell confirmed to CNBC that the meeting had taken place, but did not comment on the size of the specific investment.
A spokesperson said in a statement: &#8220;Nigeria is an important country for Shell. We see good opportunities there for potential investment,&#8221; referencing its Bonga offshore oil field and the expansion of liquefied natural gas as examples of this. &#8220;Both projects are subject to a future final investment decision and we continue to work with our partners and the government towards that in each case.&#8221;
Shell&#8217;s statement added: &#8220;The potential investments feature as options in our long-term plans and would fit within our capital spending range of $25 to $30 billion per year if we decide to go ahead with them.&#8221;
Oil price volatility has hit Nigeria&#8217;s economy — the largest on the African continent — hard. In 2016, the country suffered its first full-year recession in 25 years. Economic growth remains sluggish, expected by the <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/10000936?__source=cnbcafrica|inline|story|&amp;par=cnbcafrica &amp;doc="> 
International Monetary Fund 
</a> (IMF) to be 2.1 percent for 2018, well below the emerging market average of 4.9 percent.
Oil accounts for approximately 35 percent of Nigeria&#8217;s gross domestic product, according to the <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/10000937?__source=cnbcafrica|inline|story|&amp;par=cnbcafrica &amp;doc="> 
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 
</a> (OPEC), of which Nigeria is a member.
Buhari referenced that, as of October, Nigeria had risen 24 places in the World Bank&#8217;s Ease of Doing Business ranking to 145th out of a total of 190 economies.
&#8220;We acknowledge that much more is to be done,&#8221; he said. &#8220;We are now in the next stage, this is work in progress.&#8221;

Nigeria’s Buhari hints at $15 billion deal with Shell, says ‘we are not doing too badly’

King’s Barcelona Office | Office Envy

Natasha Turak
Source: <a href="http://https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/18/libyas-most-powerful-military-leader-khalifa-haftar-might-be-dead.html">Libya’s most powerful military leader might be dead and that could impact oil markets</a>
<ul>
<li class="">Libya&#8217;s most powerful military leader reportedly suffered a stroke this week — and no one can confirm whether he is dead or alive.</li>
<li>Local media has reported General Khalifa Haftar&#8217;s death, while sources close to him insist he is recovering.</li>
<li>Haftar&#8217;s death could mean a renewal of violence that could hit the OPEC country&#8217;s oil output and create new opportunities for groups like ISIS.</li>
</ul>
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://media.cnbc.com/i/applications/cnbc.com/resources/img/editorial/2014/05/26/101705002-491933959.1910x1000.jpg" alt="" height="1000" width="1910" data-licensor-name="AFP | Getty Images"/>
Libya&#8217;s most powerful military leader reportedly suffered a stroke this week — and no one can confirm whether he is dead or alive.
Local media has reported General Khalifa Haftar&#8217;s death, while sources close to him insist he is recovering. If the former is true, it could mean a renewal of violence and a power struggle that could hit the OPEC country&#8217;s oil output and create new opportunities for extremist groups like the Islamic State militant group.
Often described as the oil-rich state&#8217;s &#8220;most powerful warlord,&#8221; Khaftar, who heads the powerful but internally fractured Libyan National Army (LNA), has been a stabilizing force in a country wracked by civil war since longtime leader Muammar Gaddafi was deposed in the Arab Spring uprisings of 2011. Many fear that his absence could usher in the kind of power vacuum and chaos that followed Gaddafi&#8217;s death.
Haftar effectively controls eastern Libya, including the &#8220;oil crescent&#8221; in the Gulf of Sirte that holds four major ports that comprise the lion&#8217;s share of Libya&#8217;s oil exports. The 75-year-old general, who holds American citizenship, was formerly a Gaddafi ally but returned to Libya in 2011, after years in the U.S., to join the NATO offensive that toppled the dictator.
<h4>A fractured country</h4>
Haftar has successfully managed to hold numerous competing factions and tribes together to keep the LNA unified. And he&#8217;s effectively presented himself as an answer to radical Islamist groups in the region, thereby gaining strong support from Egypt and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
Eastern Libya is home to its Tobruk-led government, which is in competition with the internationally-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA), based in the capital of Tripoli in western Libya. Haftar&#8217;s eastern camp is supported by Egypt and the UAE. Technically, the two bodies are supposed to be united under the GNA, but they do not fully recognize one another and thus make their own laws regardless of joint consensus. Welcome to Libya. 
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://media.cnbc.com/i/applications/cnbc.com/resources/img/editorial/2014/10/15/102090359-1179019.1910x1000.jpg" alt="Libya map" height="1000" width="1910" data-licensor-name="AP"/>
Exports from the four ports under Haftar&#8217;s control are Libya&#8217;s main source of much-needed hard currency. Libya&#8217;s population of 6.3 million sits above the largest proven oil reserves in Africa, but benefit practically nothing from them — the United Nations estimates about 40 percent of the country lives below the poverty line.
Because he&#8217;s so revered in eastern Libya, any potential successor to Haftar would likely face serious challenges from within the LNA, and his death could trigger deep internal conflict, said Sarah Al Shaalan, a Middle East and North Africa researcher at risk consultancy Eurasia Group. Egypt and the UAE appear committed to preventing a splintering of the east, but a worst-case scenario would be the outbreak of further violence.
<h4>Risk to oil production</h4>
Haftar&#8217;s incapacitation will have direct implications for the hydrocarbon sector, according to Chris Elsner and Paul Tossetti of IHS Oil Markets.
The general&#8217;s efforts were vital in maintaining much of Libya&#8217;s oil production. It took Haftar&#8217;s concentration of power in the east, aided by his military forces, to open up all Libya&#8217;s central export terminals, &#8220;marking the start of the most recent rise in Libyan output back to 1 million barrels per day (bdp) from a range of 300,000 to 500,000 bpd,&#8221; the analysts said.
&#8220;That resurgence — and the associated revenues — have bought a measure of temporary stability for Libya and provided some scope for political negotiations to move forward,&#8221; they added.
So increasing chaos would only further damage Libyan national security, creating opportunities for militias and traffickers already exploiting the crisis, Al Shaalan said. &#8220;The Islamic State would also likely exploit the situation to accelerate attacks intended to disturb oil exports in north-central Libya.&#8221;
And a weakened LNA would encourage its opponents to recapture main positions like oil terminals or military sites.
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://media.cnbc.com/i/applications/cnbc.com/resources/img/editorial/2017/08/07/104638259-GettyImages-605720592.1910x1000.jpg" alt="A picture shows a general view at the Zueitina oil terminal in Libya on September 14, 2016." height="1000" width="1910" data-licensor-name="Abdullah Doma | AFP | Getty Images "/>
For rival forces waiting for the news on Haftar, this may be their window, and the country could witness a rush to target oil infrastructure and disrupt operations in the event of his death. Eurasia Group estimates this would lead to a decline in average production in Libya from 1.1 million bpd in 2018 to roughly 900,000 &#8220;in the most benign scenarios.&#8221;
Markets will focus not only on potential declines, but on the risk of much broader instability in the east that would have a more meaningful impact on production.
Given tightening global oil supplies, a 200,000 bpd decrease in Libya would add further support to oil prices, and combined with the increased likelihood of a <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/104955107?__source=cnbcafrica|inline|story|&amp;par=cnbcafrica &amp;doc="> 
collapse in the Iran nuclear deal 
</a> in May, bolsters the case for oil market bulls.
In the meantime, Libyans await news on the fate of one of their most influential leaders — and by extension, the fate of their country.

Libya’s most powerful military leader might be dead and that could impact oil markets

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