Justina Crabtree
Source: <a href="http://https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/16/african-countries-warned-against-becoming-a-fortress-for-trade-by-wto.html">African countries warned against becoming a ‘fortress’ for trade by WTO</a>
<ul>
<li>&#8220;Certainly at the WTO, we see African integration as a stepping stone towards further integration between Africa and the global economy,&#8221; said the director-general.</li>
<li>African leaders met in Kigali, Rwanda, last month to sign a declaration of the establishment of a free trade area on the continent. This, if fully put into practice, would be the largest bloc of its kind in terms of member states since the formation of the World Trade Organization.</li>
</ul>
Recent progress made by African nations towards establishing the world&#8217;s largest free trade area was backed Monday by the director-general of the World Trade Organization (WTO).
Roberto Azevedo warned, however, that the continent must remain outward looking.
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://media.cnbc.com/i/applications/cnbc.com/resources/img/editorial/2016/09/04/103914629-GettyImages-538551434.1910x1000.jpg" alt="" height="1000" width="1910" data-licensor-name="Daniel Leal-Olivas | AFP | Getty Images"/>
&#8220;The notion of a continental (free trade) area, I think, is something that should be supported by everyone,&#8221; he said, speaking at the Commonwealth Business Forum in London.
&#8220;Certainly at the WTO, we see African integration as a stepping stone towards further integration between Africa and the global economy.&#8221;
&#8220;But, Azevedo warned that countries should avoid taking the &#8220;wrong road.&#8221;
He said that discussion needed to include &#8220;how to make sure that the integrated processes do not become a fortress,&#8221; and instead be used as a &#8220;step to open up&#8221; rather than shutting off other forms of global trade.
&#8220;The integration of Africa is an important point of integration into the world,&#8221; he said.
African leaders met in Kigali, Rwanda, last month to sign a declaration of the establishment of a free trade area on the continent. This, if fully put into practice, would be <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/105076688?__source=cnbcafrica|inline|story|&amp;par=cnbcafrica &amp;doc="> 
the largest bloc of its kind in terms of member states 
</a> since the formation of the World Trade Organization.
The agreement is proposed by the African Union, a collective of 55 countries on the continent. It is touted as encompassing a market of 1.2 billion people with a gross domestic product (GDP) of $2.5 trillion — and intended to encourage Africa&#8217;s trade to <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/105094579?__source=cnbcafrica|inline|story|&amp;par=cnbcafrica &amp;doc="> 
diversify away 
</a> from its traditional commodity exports outside of the continent, the volatile prices of which have hurt the economies of many countries.
Forty-four African countries signed the pact in March, although sub-Saharan Africa&#8217;s two biggest economies hesitated.
South African President Cyril Ramaphosa only committed joining the agreement at some point in the future, while Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari did not attend the summit at all. Both cited the need to resolve domestic issues first, for example working with labor unions over feared job losses.
Azevedo also highlighted the need to improve infrastructure in Africa to better facilitate trade. &#8220;Because although they are neighboring countries, sometimes in Africa it&#8217;s easier to connect to Europe or to other markets than to themselves.&#8221;

African countries warned against becoming a ‘fortress’ for trade by WTO

Dr. Michael Ivanovitch
Source: <a href="http://https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/16/chinas-growing-economic-presence-in-eu-causing-concern--commentary.html">Germany&#8217;s problem with China goes well beyond trade issues</a>
<ul>
<li>Germany has no reason to complain about China, unless it is doing that in the name of EU&#8217;s huge trade deficit with Beijing.</li>
<li>Berlin should stop bossing around European countries benefiting from Chinese investments.</li>
<li>EU should embrace, without fear, the Belt and Road Initiative because it controls its endpoints and major sale outlets.</li>
</ul>
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://media.cnbc.com/i/applications/cnbc.com/resources/img/editorial/2017/06/01/104504024-GettyImages-599512812-merkel-xi.1910x1000.jpg" alt="Chinese President Xi Jinping (R) shakes hand with German Chancellor Angela Merkel (L) before their meeting at the West Lake State House on September 5, 2016 in Hangzhou, China. " height="1000" width="1910" data-licensor-name="Getty Images"/>
China stands accused by Germany of interfering in its spheres of interest and influence in the European Union, West Balkans and Africa . Germans are also alleging that the China are using their economic clout in these regions for political ends.
While on a visit to Paris in August of last year, Sigmar Gabriel, Germany&#8217;s foreign minister at that time, spelled it all out: &#8220;If we don&#8217;t develop a (European) policy regarding China, then China will succeed in dividing Europe.&#8221; And in an apparent spoof on Beijing&#8217;s &#8220;one-China&#8221; mantra, he said that &#8220;we should urge China to practice a &#8216;one-Europe&#8217; policy.&#8221;

Greece was one of the early flashpoints for Germany&#8217;s concern about the growing competition from China. Benefiting from Beijing&#8217;s large direct investments, Greece blocked last June an EU statement at the United Nations about China&#8217;s repressive human rights policies.
Hungary, where China is building a high-speed railway line from Budapest to Belgrade, joined Greece to block another EU statement criticizing China&#8217;s territorial claims in the South China Sea, after The Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague ruled against Beijing in July 2016.
Berlin is also alarmed at China&#8217;s very successful economic cooperation with 16 Central and East European countries, derisively called &#8220;the new Europeans,&#8221; in a &#8220;16+1&#8221; organization set up in 2012.
<h4>Stop bossing around</h4>
These are the examples of how much Germany is pushing the envelope using an old French chestnut of &#8220;préférence communautaire&#8221; — a political injunction to protect EU products and services from non-EU suppliers.
But the Germans are going much further. They are complaining about countries working with China which are not even the EU members — some of them merely looking for an associate status because a full membership is a drawn-out obstacles race at the mercy of centuries-old regional hatreds and rivalries.
Last February, for example, at a press conference in Berlin, the prime minister of former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia was gratefully acknowledging China&#8217;s help in modernizing his country&#8217;s roads when German Chancellor Angela Merkel reminded him that there may be political conditions attached to such infrastructure investments.
Further to the north, Serbia is another non-EU member where China is investing billions of dollars in a construction of modern road networks, a 1.5 km bridge over the Danube River, high-speed rail lines, a large industrial park and a number of industrial projects. All that is being closely and very critically scrutinized by Germany — even though Serbia will never become an EU member in exchange for a required recognition of Kosovo&#8217;s contested statehood.
Things have indeed changed since the time when Otto von Bismark, the chancellor of the German First Reich, arrogantly opined that &#8220;the whole of the Balkans is not worth the bones of a single Pomeranian grenadier.&#8221;
Germany is also finding that China is in the way as Berlin seeks to establish a closer relationship with its former African colonies. In most of these countries, China may be difficult to dislodge because it has been operating development programs there for many years and decades.
<h4>Trade smarts, not threats, with China</h4>
Neither is the China&#8217;s monumental, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) much to German taste. That is a modern replica of ancient overland and maritime routes connecting East Asia with Europe and Africa. China, Germany claims, has too much control over the whole project. The German ambassador to Beijing says that his country&#8217;s companies should be able to participate as equal partners.
Interestingly, German companies don&#8217;t seem to have the same reservations. A BRI study published last February by two German business associations — Germany Trade &amp; Invest and Association of German Chambers of Industry and Commerce — highlights &#8220;cooperation opportunities between German and Chinese businesses in sectors of infrastructure, energy and consulting.&#8221;
More seriously perhaps, German complaints about Chinese control have much broader implications. Media reports, for example, quote German authorities&#8217; statements that the BRI serves as an instrument to establish a Chinese world order (&#8220;pax sinica&#8221;), where even the terms &#8220;free trade&#8221; and &#8220;the rule of law&#8221; have meanings different from what&#8217;s commonly understood.
China is strongly denying any such intentions. At the Boao Forum for Asia last week, China&#8217;s President Xi Jinping said that the BRI was &#8220;neither the Marshall Plan after World War II nor an intrigue of China.&#8221;
Beijing, he said, seeks &#8220;shared growth through discussion and collaboration,&#8221; advocating &#8220;inclusiveness&#8221; and opposing a &#8220;zero-sum game … mentality.&#8221; More to the point, Xi pledged that &#8220;China will not threaten anyone else, attempt to overturn the existing international system, or seek spheres of influence.&#8221;
It would not be surprising if Germany begged to differ. At any rate, Germany correctly wants to see real and meaningful measures of China&#8217;s opening up to world commerce and finance. Like some other Europeans, Germans are talking of China&#8217;s &#8220;promise fatigue,&#8221; arguing that Beijing has to reciprocate — after having greatly benefited from a fairly liberal access to German and other EU markets.
Here are the numbers.
The China&#8217;s share of EU trade has almost tripled so far this decade to 15.3 percent, slightly below America&#8217;s steadily declining share of 16.9 percent.
Last year, China ran a whopping 176 billion euro trade surplus with the EU, while the U.S. took a 120.8 billion euro deficit. In the first two months of this year, China&#8217;s EU trade surplus was running at an alarming annual rate of 213.6 billion euro, a 21.4 percent increase over last year.
Germany, by comparison, has much less to complain about: Its goods trade deficit with China remains on a steeply declining trend, falling last year to 14.2 billion euro, a 21.5 percent drop from 2016.
Still, Germany, a powerhouse of world exports, does not seem to like that. Berlin is also very worried about China&#8217;s buying spree in the heartland of its top technologies — a recent allegedly stealthy purchase of a 9.7 percent stake in Daimler (which owns the Mercedes Benz brand of cars), an 8.8 percent ownership of the Deutsche Bank, the purchase of the robotics firm KUKA and the energy management company Ista.
Germans are now tightening the rules and reviews of incoming direct investments, prompting the adoption of the same procedures at the EU level.
<h4>Investment thoughts</h4>
The pictures of a beaming German chancellor and Chinese prime minister extolling the Sino-German &#8220;dream team&#8221; projects seem to be souvenirs of another time.
Sadly, however, Germany and the EU — much like the U.S. — are waking up a bit too late.
China has worked hard to produce and sell its wares to eager European and other overseas buyers, amassing, in the process, huge trade surpluses.
All the money that China has earned on its net foreign trade transactions — an estimated $130 billion in 2017 — has to be recycled in portfolio and direct investments abroad. Remember, even in China, the balance of payments has to balance — the sum of current and capital accounts must be equal to zero (with adjustments and statistical errors, of course).
Complaints and vilifications of China are no substitutes for thought and smart German, EU and American trade policies. Yes, do insist on fair and reciprocal trade, but Germany should stop bossing around its European customers (aka partners) to defend its trade privileges.
The BRI is a huge, epochal, lucrative and open-ended Eurasian project people have dreamed about ever since that Venetian nobleman and trader (Marco Polo) showed the way to Serenissima&#8217;s riches in the late 13th century. China may well control the origins of BRI routes and commerce, but the Europeans dominate the endpoints and major sale outposts.
That should not be hard to understand for those whipping up the political soufflés, instead of concentrating on creating wealth and building the EU&#8217;s leverage in world affairs.

Commentary by Michael Ivanovitch, an independent analyst focusing on world economy, geopolitics and investment strategy. He served as a senior economist at the OECD in Paris, international economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and taught economics at Columbia Business School.

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Source: <a href="http://https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/10/nigeria-president-buhari-to-run-for-election-next-year-markets-arent-so-happy.html">Nigeria&#8217;s president is running for re-election and markets are not happy</a>
<ul>
<li>Nigeria&#8217;s President Muhammadu Buhari is to contest his party&#8217;s nomination for next February&#8217;s presidential election, it was announced Monday.</li>
<li>Stocks in Lagos dropped over 1 percent on the news and have hovered around the flatline since.</li>
<li>Buhari&#8217;s leadership of late has been subject to speculation over his health, for which he sought treatment in London for several months last year.</li>
</ul>
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://media.cnbc.com/i/applications/cnbc.com/resources/img/editorial/2017/12/19/104907559-GettyImages-874175852.1910x1000.jpg" alt="" height="1000" width="1910" data-licensor-name="next24online | NurPhoto | Getty Images"/>
Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari is to contest his party&#8217;s nomination for next February&#8217;s presidential election, leading to a rather downbeat reaction on the Nigerian stock exchange.
Stocks in Lagos dropped over 1 percent after his announcement Monday, Reuters reported, hitting a three-month low. Sentiment remained subdued Tuesday as stocks hovered around the flatline.
In fact, Nigeria&#8217;s stocks have been on a downwards trajectory for over a month.
Buhari&#8217;s leadership of late has been subject to speculation over his health, for which he sought treatment in London for several months last year. The president, 75, has not disclosed the reason for the treatment.
He is currently in the U.K. for talks with Prime Minister Theresa May ahead of the Commonwealth Heads of Government Conference in London next week.
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In 2015, Buhari was the first Nigerian opposition leader to win an election. Representing the center-left All Progressives Congress (APC), he beat then-incumbent Goodluck Jonathan. Buhari previously ruled Nigeria in the 1980s as head of a military regime.
But, Nigeria has struggled on both its economic and security fronts since Buhari&#8217;s landmark election victory.
In late March, it emerged that Nigeria&#8217;s national budget announcement, initially planned for January, had been <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/105097709?__source=cnbcafrica|inline|story|&amp;par=cnbcafrica &amp;doc="> 
pushed back to the end of May 
</a>.
The country experienced its first full-year recession in 25 years in 2016, with its economy hit by low oil prices. Economic growth remains sluggish, expected by the <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/10000936?__source=cnbcafrica|inline|story|&amp;par=cnbcafrica &amp;doc="> 
International Monetary Fund 
</a> to be 1.9 percent for 2018, well below the emerging market average of 4.9 percent.
But, there has been some economic positive news. Nigeria&#8217;s state revenue for February edged up by 19 billion naira ($53 million), thanks to higher crude oil exports and prices.
Nigeria is one of the largest economies in Africa, and with over 180 million inhabitants is the continent&#8217;s largest population. In its manifesto, the APC pledged to create 1 million new jobs per year.
Islamist militant group Boko Haram continues to threaten the security of civilians in the northeast of the country. Meanwhile, militant attacks also continue in the Niger delta region, the country&#8217;s oil production hub.
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://media.cnbc.com/i/applications/cnbc.com/resources/img/editorial/2018/03/29/105097739-GettyImages-939629074.1910x1000.jpg" alt="" height="1000" width="1910" data-licensor-name="Pius Utomi Ekpei | AFP | Getty Images"/>
&#8220;Buhari is likely to face opposition for the APC ticket, although as a sitting president he is in the strongest position to secure the nomination,&#8221; Imad Mesdoua, senior consultant for sub-Saharan Africa at research firm Control Risks, told CNBC via telephone.
&#8220;The vote in 2019 will be competitive, but (Buhari) will argue that he needs more time to improve national security and implement anti-corruption measures, key promises he had pledged to see through during the 2015 election.&#8221;
But one former leader has espoused a renewal in Nigerian politics. &#8220;The older generation must give way for the new one,&#8221; ex-President Ibrahim Babaginda said earlier this month, as reported by local press. &#8220;We have become analog, but this is a digital age. So the young people should be supported to use their digital knowledge to move the country forward.&#8221;
Babangida and another former president, Olusegun Obasanjo, who supported Buhari previously, have since spoken against the incumbent.
There has been a &#8220;crystallization of criticism among some power-brokers against government performance&#8221; since Buhari came to power, Mesdoua said. &#8220;Both Obasanjo and Babangida criticized the government&#8217;s performance in economic management, security and poverty alleviation but also called for a new generation of leaders.&#8221;

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Source: <a href="http://https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/09/zimbabwe-us-could-lift-sanctions-if-mnangagwa-holds-fair-elections.html">The US could lift sanctions on Zimbabwe — but only if the new president holds fair elections</a>
<ul>
<li>U.S. Senators Christopher Coons and Jeff Flake met with Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa in Harare over the weekend to &#8220;explore ways of strengthening the bilateral relationship,&#8221; according to the U.S. embassy in Zimbabwe.</li>
<li>Coons and Flake are behind a proposed amendment to the U.S.&#8217; Zimbabwe Democracy and Economic Recovery Act which outlines the steps the African country must fulfill for U.S.-imposed sanctions to be lifted, namely the holding of &#8220;free and fair&#8221; elections.</li>
</ul>
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://media.cnbc.com/i/applications/cnbc.com/resources/img/editorial/2018/03/19/105073957-GettyImages-878420096.1910x1000.jpg" alt="" height="1000" width="1910" data-licensor-name="Wilfred Kajese | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images"/>
Two U.S. senators have met with Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa as part of an exploratory trip which could lead to the U.S. lifting sanctions on the once-pariah African state.
U.S. Senators Christopher Coons and Jeff Flake&#8217;s visit to the Zimbabwean capital of Harare over the weekend was to &#8220;explore ways of strengthening the bilateral relationship,&#8221; said a tweet by the U.S. embassy there. The two politicians met with the new president, as well as members of the opposition and civil society.
Coons and Flake, both on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, are behind a proposed amendment to the U.S.&#8217; Zimbabwe Democracy and Economic Recovery Act (ZDERA). The bill details the steps which Zimbabwe must take for U.S. sanctions to be lifted, namely the holding of free and fair elections.
&#8220;The president (Mnangagwa) has made a commitment to take action, but some of the important actions required for progress towards the conditions for free and fair and credible elections have not yet happened,&#8221; Coons told the media, <a href="http://www.thezimbabwemail.com/main/trump-opens-window-for-mnangagwa/">as reported by the Zimbabwe Mail</a>.
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Mnangagwa has said that he is committed to holding open elections in July of this year and has invited external observers to the expected event.
It is hoped that such elections could lead to the removal of U.S.-imposed sanctions on Zimbabwe, which has seen its economy crippled by decades of mismanagement under former President Robert Mugabe.
But, &#8220;Lifting U.S. sanctions is time consuming and not straightforward,&#8221; Alex Vines, head of the Africa program at think tank Chatham House, told CNBC via e-mail. &#8220;The easiest way would be for the Zimbabwean government to prove that it&#8217;s fulfilled the requirements of ZDERA.&#8221;
Nonetheless, Coons and Flake&#8217;s visit could symbolize the latest in a warming of relations between the U.S. and Zimbabwe. In March, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/11/opinion/zimbabwe-emmerson-mnangagwa.html">Mnangagwa penned a column in the New York Times</a> which highlighted Zimbabwe&#8217;s newfound openness.
In February this year, U.S. chain Pizza Hut opened its first branch in Harare. The move, according to the <a href="https://zw.usembassy.gov/american-franchise-pizza-hut-opens-zimbabwe/">U.S. embassy&#8217;s website</a>, &#8220;is a demonstration that American companies see attractive business prospects in Zimbabwe.&#8221;
&#8220;We would hope to expand the people to people relationships, relationships between companies, hospitals, researchers, but also much more investment from the United States to reviving the economy to rebuilding infrastructure and advancing the country,&#8221; Coons <a href="https://www.newsday.co.zw/2018/04/us-sets-terms-to-revive-zim-business-ties/">told Zimbabwean news outlet NewsDay</a>.
The U.S. has imposed financial sanctions on Zimbabwe since 2001, in response to human rights abuses by Mugabe. The sanctions include financial and travel restrictions, as well as banning the transfer of defense items or services.
Last week <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/105105579?__source=cnbcafrica|inline|story|&amp;par=cnbcafrica &amp;doc="> 
Mnangagwa was in China 
</a> on a five-day state visit, his first outside of Africa since coming to power in November last year. He met with Chinese President Xi Jinping and other Chinese officials.
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://media.cnbc.com/i/applications/cnbc.com/resources/img/editorial/2018/04/03/105105670-GettyImages-941280668.1910x1000.jpg" alt="" height="1000" width="1910" data-licensor-name="Greg Baker | AFP | Getty Images"/>
&#8220;The new president (of Zimbabwe) can expect to get both financial aid, more help with infrastructure (including the expansion of Harare airport) and technological assistance, as well as Chinese participation in agricultural projects,&#8221; Jonathan Fenby, China chairman at research firm TS Lombard, told CNBC last week of the visit.
In what could signify further rapprochement with the West, it has been reported that Zimbabwe is in talks to re-join the Commonwealth, a 53-nation bloc consisting of the U.K. and its former colonial territories. But, a spokesperson confirmed to CNBC on Friday that the organization has not received a formal application from Zimbabwe to do so.
Mugabe withdrew Zimbabwe from the group in 2003 following a dispute over sanctions.
Zimbabwe is a former British colony, previously known as Rhodesia, and was declared independent in 1980.

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