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François Conradie | NKC African Economics
The African Union-European Union (AU-EU) summit was held in Abidjan, Ivory Coast, last week (November 29-30). Most of the discussion at the summit was about migration, with a horrific recent video of a slave auction in Libya at the forefront of delegates’ minds. The summit agreed on the formation of a special task force to protect migrants’ and refugees’ lives, including in Libya.
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There was also much talk of how Europe might help African countries to build their economies in such a way that fewer Africans seek to migrate. The speeches on the subject were generic and general, but did show, we think, a widely shared will to do something to address the iniquities and deterioration in living conditions that make people flee their homes.
We think some diplomatic developments at the summit were more interesting for being more likely to lead to concrete measures in the near future: the interactions between Morocco and two of its most important diplomatic adversaries on the continent, South Africa and Algeria.
King Mohammed VI of Morocco met South Africa’s President Jacob Zuma on the sidelines of the conference for a quick talk and photo opportunity. The South African delegation included International Relations Minister Maite Nkoana-Mashabane, Ambassador to the AU Ndumiso Ntshinga, and Mr Zuma’s lawyer Michael Hulley.
According to a South African diplomatic source, who spoke to the Mail &amp; Guardian and State-owned Moroccan media, the countries are set to re-establish diplomatic relations which were suspended in 2004 when South Africa, under President Thabo Mbeki, recognised the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR) as the government of the disputed Western Sahara. Since then, the two countries have only had chargés d’affaires in each other’s capitals.
A recent incident has brought relations to a low point: in May the Marshall Island-flagged NM Cherry Blossom, a ship carrying 50,000 tonnes of phosphates mined in the Western Sahara by Morocco’s State-owned Cherifian Phosphates Office (OCP), was seized in Port Elizabeth in terms of a civil maritime court order brought by Polisario (the armed movement/political party that makes up the SADR government) on the grounds that the shipment belongs to the Sahrawi people and the group is their legitimate representative. The vessel remains in Port Elizabeth pending a court case to resolve the issue.
Morocco is trying to get South Africa to withdraw its recognition of the SADR and is using economic sweeteners to do so. (Although the presence of Mr Hulley, Mr Zuma’s personal lawyer, may indicate that the South African head of State has his family’s interests at least partly in mind). The South African source thinks that better relations will help the South Africans get the Moroccans to “go easy on Western Sahara,” without clarifying what that means for Pretoria’s recognition of the SADR or its support for the increasingly theoretical referendum that the United Nations (UN) called for in 1991.
It would be helpful if Pretoria really can push for better human rights in the territory, and the acceleration of a move to some form of self-rule short of independence that the Moroccans have been promising. From the point of view of trade and investment, there is a lot that Morocco and South Africa can do together.
Another notable moment at the summit was the warm, friendly handshake that King Mohammed shared with Algeria’s Prime Minister Ahmed Ouyahia, while France’s President Emmanuel Macron beamed genially at them.
Morocco’s relations with Algeria have been extremely fraught, essentially since Algeria’s independence, because of Moroccan claims to parts of Algeria in the 1960s, and the two armies fought a brief war in 1963. When Morocco re-established control of the Western Sahara in 1975 after 90 years of Spanish rule, Algeria backed the Polisario movement which wanted independence. The difficult relationship has meant that the Union of the Arab Maghreb (UMA) remains an empty shell, and there is practically no trade between the two countries.
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Morocco-South Africa – some remarkable moments at the AU-EU summit

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Chancellor Angela Merkel said on Monday her efforts to form a three-way coalition government had failed, thrusting Germany into a political crisis and pushing Europe’s largest economy closer to a possible new election.
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The pro-business Free Democrats (FDP) unexpectedly pulled out of more than four weeks of negotiations with Merkel’s conservative bloc and the ecologist Greens, citing irreconcilable differences.
The euro hit a two-month low against the yen soon after FDP leader Christian Lindner said on Sunday that his party was withdrawing from the talks as the three would-be partners could not find common ground on key issues.
A tired looking Merkel said she would stay on as acting chancellor and would consult with President Frank-Walter Steinmeier on how to move forward, adding that a deal had been within reach.
“It is a day of deep reflection on how to go forward in Germany,” Merkel told reporters. “As chancellor, I will do everything to ensure that this country is well managed in the difficult weeks to come.”
It was a sobering moment in the career of a woman who during 12 years in power became a symbol of stability, leading the euro zone during its debt crisis and building compromise within the European Union on a deal with Turkey to stem migrant arrivals.
Merkel was weakened after a September election as voters angry with her decision in 2015 to open Germany’s borders to more than a million asylum seekers punished her conservatives by voting for the Alternative for Germany (AfD) far-right party.
The break down of the talks leaves Germany with two unprecedented options in the post-World War Two era: Merkel forms a minority government, or the president calls a new election if no government is formed.
The center-left Social Democrats (SPD), Merkel’s current coalition partners who were the second-biggest party in the election, have ruled out a repeat of an alliance with her conservatives, who won the vote but were left with fewer seats.
There is little appetite for a new election. The main parties fear that the AfD would win more than the almost 13 percent of votes it secured to enter parliament for the first time as the third-biggest party.
‘DIFFICULT FOR ECONOMY’
Failure to form a government in Europe’s largest economy could have implications for everything from euro zone reforms championed by French President Emmanuel Macron to the shape of relations with Britain after it leaves the EU.
The next government was also expected to increase spending, raising hopes of more fiscal stimulus for an economy that has been relying on consumption and state spending for growth.
While campaigning for a fourth term, Merkel cited the strong performance of an economy that has been growing since 2010 and a record low unemployment rate as reasons for voters to back her conservatives.
Economists have accused her of complacency on the economy, saying she should overhaul the tax system to make it more growth-friendly and boost investment on digital infrastructure &#8211; demands also made by the FDP.
The DIHK Chambers of Industry and Commerce said a prolonged period of uncertainty would be bad for the economy.
“There is the danger that work on major issues for the future of our country will be delayed for a prolonged period of time,” DIHK President Eric Schweitzer wrote in an email. “German companies must now prepare for a possibly long period of uncertainty. This is always difficult for the economy.”
The break down of the talks came as a surprise, especially as it was announced by the resurgent FDP, Merkel’s preferred coalition partners who had dropped out of parliament four years ago and had ruled with her conservatives during 2009-2013.
After its impressive electoral comeback, the FDP’s decision to pull out of coalition talks was puzzling, according to Jackson Janes, of the American Institute for Contemporary German Studies at Johns Hopkins University.
“And it is also a dangerous game of poker for Germany,” Janes added.
Immigration was the main sticking point in the negotiations. Merkel’s Christian Democrats (CDU) and their Christian Social Union (CSU) Bavarian allies had demanded a yearly cap on the number of asylum seekers that Germany accepts each year, a measure rejected by the Greens.
There was also discord over conservative proposals to limit the right of some accepted asylum seekers to bring in immediate family members. Merkel said a compromise with the Greens on immigration had also been possible.
Government spending, tax cuts and climate policy had also been sticking points.
“Today there was no progress but rather there were setbacks because specific compromises were questioned,” the FDP’s Lindner said. “It is better not to rule than to rule the wrong way. Goodbye!”
<div class="Attribution_attribution_o4ojT" data-reactid="86">
Additional reporting by Andrea Shalal; Writing by Joseph Nasr; Editing by Peter Cooney and Simon Cameron-Moore
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Merkel fourth term in doubt as German coalition talks fail

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