<div class="wp-block-image is-style-rounded" style="margin-top:0px"><figure class="alignleft size-large is-resized"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/PHOTO-2019-12-12-14-01-36.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-373144" width="95" height="96" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/PHOTO-2019-12-12-14-01-36.jpg 1010w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/PHOTO-2019-12-12-14-01-36-296x300.jpg 296w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/PHOTO-2019-12-12-14-01-36-150x150.jpg 150w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/PHOTO-2019-12-12-14-01-36-768x779.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/PHOTO-2019-12-12-14-01-36-696x706.jpg 696w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/PHOTO-2019-12-12-14-01-36-300x300.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/PHOTO-2019-12-12-14-01-36-600x608.jpg 600w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/PHOTO-2019-12-12-14-01-36-100x100.jpg 100w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 95px) 100vw, 95px" /><figcaption>Image supplied by Curtin University Dubai</figcaption></figure></div>



About the Author: Sandile Nkala is a final year Bachelor of Commerce in Accounting student and the former Student Council President at <a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="http://curtindubai.ac.ae/?utm_medium=Backlink&amp;utm_source=CNBC&amp;utm_campaign=elearning_digital_divide_article" target="_blank">Curtin University Dubai.</a> Over the last few years, Sandile has spent time speaking and mentoring young women in the UAE. She has also served as a Student Brand Ambassador for Curtin University, Hunter Foods, 6th Street, Uninest Student Residences and Self Defined; a South African organisation with a movement that strives to empower young women to make a difference.



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Over a billion students, in 191 countries are supposedly distance learning. Education took quite an interesting turn this year, as virtual tutoring, video conferencing and online learning software instantly became the new normal.&nbsp;&nbsp;These drastic measures were necessary to control the Covid-19 infection rates. However, we need to address the ‘elephant’ in the room.&nbsp;



One cannot deny the necessity of e-learning during such a testing time. Even so, the elephant in the room is the ‘digital divide’. It can be seen globally that the ability to fully participate in e-learning is tied to socio-economic status. US President Lyndon Johnson once said, ‘Education is the key to opportunity in our society, and the equality of educational opportunity must be a birth right of every citizen’. Yet, the UN has reported that 830 million students, fighting for an opportunity for a better life in our society, are currently locked out of the digital classroom. For instance, 90% of students in sub-Saharan Africa reportedly do not have access to a computer with 82% unable to get online. This is illustrated by Mandlenkosi Mswela, an Accounting university student in Zimbabwe who expressed how concerned he was about the possibility of repeating a semester, as students are currently being tutored via WhatsApp and PDF documents due to little or no access to the internet. On the other end of the spectrum, over 90% of students in the Netherlands, Sweden and the UK have access to a computer or internet at home. An IT university student in Sweden, Benjamin Gafvelin mentioned that the change to e-learning was in fact quite painless and that his biggest challenge was merely completing courses that consist of group work.&nbsp;



Realistically, the 830 million students currently locked out of the digital classroom face the possibility of repeating a grade and failing to graduate in time or worse, being socially promoted without having mastered the material that was to have been taught this year. Learning discontinuity among students in underdeveloped nations and low-income communities is the biggest threat we face by failing to address this alarming digital gap. Fortunately, some nations and educational institutions across the world have taken steps towards bridging the digital gap. For instance, the South African government has already begun to implement strategic policies and resources to ensure that students in low-income communities are not deprived of a right to equitable education. It is a work in progress, but unquestionably a step in the right direction. Nobesuthu Mnkandla, a law university student in South Africa praised the efforts of the nation by saying, ‘Universities have distributed laptops and 30GB data bundles to cater to students who have little or no access to e-learning. Also, universities have decided to post studying material and deliver USB flash drives to areas with no internet coverage. This has not been easy, the Student Representative Councils are doing their best to ensure no students are left behind.’ Effort such as this go a long way to show that it is indeed possible to find ways to mitigate the learning discontinuity threat.



The Covid-19 crisis highlighted a major issue in an era where we value equity in education. The e-learning digital gap is indeed real. However, with the appropriate policies and resources in place, the 830 million students locked out of the digital classroom can continue to fight for an opportunity to a better life in our society. For this reason, concerned educational institutions, governments and parties are urged to take the necessary action to give these students a fighting chance.&nbsp;



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Sources



<a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/04/1062232">https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/04/1062232</a> <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/04/coronavirus-education-global-covid19-online-digital-learning/">https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/04/coronavirus-education-global-covid19-online-digital-learning/</a> <a href="https://www.gov.za/speeches/minister-angie-motshekga-basic-education-sector-plans-support-learners-during-covid-19">https://www.gov.za/speeches/minister-angie-motshekga-basic-education-sector-plans-support-learners-during-covid-19</a>



Interviewees



Mandlenkosi Mswela. National University of Science and Technology. Zimbabwe. Benjamin Gafvelin. KTH Royal Institute of Technology. Sweden. Nobesuthu Mnkandla. Rhodes University. South Africa. Lowa Heimer. Påhlmans Handelsinstitut (Business Institute), Paralegal Higher Vocational Education (HVE). Sweden. Angelica Feliz. SP Jain School of Global Management. Australia.&nbsp; Hala Haytham. Curtin University Dubai. United Arab Emirates. Terri Golding. University of Pretoria. South Africa. Lisa Dube. University of Pretoria. South Africa. Takudzwanashe Mujawo. Middlesex University Dubai. United Arab Emirates. Simbarashe Nyakambangwe. Coventry University. United Kingdom.







Content and image supplied by <a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="http://curtindubai.ac.ae/?utm_medium=Backlink&amp;utm_source=CNBC&amp;utm_campaign=elearning_digital_divide_article" target="_blank">Curtin University Dubai.</a>

Students on desktop | Curtin Dubai

COVID-19: A student’s perspective on the e-learning digital divide

I hear this a lot: “We are in unprecedented times.” Actually, to borrow from author and motivational speaker Simon Sinek, we are not. We have been through tough business situations like this before. This is not the first time and it may not be the last, but the context of what we’re going through may be a lot more shocking and sudden than we’ve previously experienced.



It’s easy to fall into a state of fear and panic. It is human nature to brood and worry – and none of us are immune from these impulses in extraordinarily challenging times. However, I urge you to take a different viewpoint of our current circumstances. I’ll start by reframing our context. Did you know that half of the companies currently listed on the Dow Jones were born in recession? Those companies understood the opportunities that disruption and tough periods offer and created something new from them.&nbsp;



Simon Sinek talks about the Infinite Game – and if you haven’t heard about him and this concept already, I urge you to watch his YouTube videos on the topic. The Infinite Game says that the players change, but the game doesn’t. It’s not about competing and being ‘the best’. Rather, it’s about asking, ‘how can I make myself, and my organisation, a better version tomorrow than today? By constantly striving to be better tomorrow than we are today, we free ourselves from the fixed mind set of, ‘I know it all’ and embrace the growth mind set of lifelong learning, opening ourselves up to the possibilities that come from uncertainty and change.&nbsp;



The Covid-19 pandemic has forced a mass digital transformation and shift to 4IR. Some organisations – including huge multinational corporations – have been unprepared for this transformation. Business models are already changing, so the challenge for us is to rethink and reinvent our business moving forward. Organisations that cling to the status quo, who focus their energies on preserving their current state, are going to find themselves in trouble when we reach the other side of this dark tunnel we’re currently in – no matter how much money they have. Talking about pay cuts and indulging in short-term thinking will not save them. Now is the time to think big, and think boldly, to shift our behaviour.



I urge you to set aside your fear and embrace the unknown. This disruption is opening up opportunities, and organisations who identify these, and approach them with a growth mindset, will be poised to seize that opportunity. We will invest in the skills sets we need to not only survive, but to thrive. I am intent on ensuring that every employee has the right skills for the challenges ahead. We have the chance to ask ourselves, how will we prepare ourselves for the change that is coming? My view is that those that are the most prepared are going to come out stronger.&nbsp;



I am not talking about thinking about how we take advantage of the situation or milk the crisis to our own benefit. Let’s rather look at how we can differentiate ourselves as an organisation, helping the citizens of South Africa and across the globe, and leading the way through the darkness of this uncertain time, into the light at the other end of it.



Let’s begin to explore what new ways of work and opportunities we can find coming out of the crisis we’re currently in. Importantly another conversation we must have is our embrace of the digital mind set. This is the new norm for us right now, and the new way of work. The dark side of this is, of course, digital fatigue – or even digital burnout – from a constant rotation of online meetings and work expectations. I heard President Cyril Ramaphosa comment that he is currently spending 18 to 20 hours a day in meetings. None of us are in quite the same position as the President, but we face great challenges with our time and mental resources. When work and home are one and the same, it’s easy to blur or forget the boundaries. I want to reinforce to you that our culture at SAS is one of trust – I don’t need to see all of you 24 hours a day to feel confident that you are engaged in the necessary work of the day.&nbsp;



Your emotional and physical wellbeing is of utmost importance. I want to encourage you to set appropriate boundaries and to take care your mental health and wellbeing at this time. These may not be unprecedented times, but they are for many of us, the most challenging times we have faced in our lifetime. Take care of yourselves, strive to find some work-life balance and let’s move calmly and assuredly forward with a sense of renewed purpose and excitement about the opportunities that lie ahead.



SAS’s Country Manager, Akesh Lalla.

Akesh Lalla_Country Manager_SAS_South Africa

COMMENT: COVID-19 – Yes, there is disruption, but also, opportunity

REPETITION – HIGHER RESOLUTIONSouth Afr

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On the largely virtual Africa Day celebrations, in May, the current African Union Chair&nbsp; South African President Cyril Ramaphosa spoke of “a new Africa”.&nbsp;



As the continent battles a mounting Pandemic crisis is this is simply more empty political rhetoric which tends to get dusted off every Africa Day or will a better Africa emerge from the flames of Covid-19? If so what will this “new Africa” actually look like?&nbsp;



President Ramaphosa believes the Covid-19 pandemic has started to create a unity that Africa aspires to but which has all so often proved elusive:&nbsp;



“Day by day, across our continent, we are seeing the unity that is our strength being put to the service of saving lives and supporting the vulnerable.&#8221;



In webinar after webinar there’s no doubt that many African business and political leaders share President Ramaphosa’s optimism. They sense this pandemic really is a turning point to bring about the change everyone on the continent is so hungry to see.&nbsp;



The Nigerian entrepreneur Tony Elumelu says “the pandemic presents an opportunity to reset Africa, create employment and eliminate poverty”:



“Africa must embrace the new normal. The disruptions we’ve seen across healthcare, logistics, supply chain, and the digital economy are here to stay. This presents a unique opportunity for a united Africa as a strong regional bloc acting in a coordinated fashion”.



He has called for a Marshall plan to galvanise the entire continent and mobilise people and resources to address Africa’s needs. That is also the conclusion of The African Union’s Special Envoy on Covid-19 Dr Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala:



“We can see this pandemic as an opportunity for the continent. We have to specialise our countries to manufacture the things we need so we can trade with others. We need to produce good jobs for our young people and empower our women and youths and put them at the centre”



Several of these themes have also been expressed in many African-related webinars. There is much talk about how this Covid-19 crisis has smashed international supply chains and how the future is now regional. There are many calls for investment to encourage African SMEs to create local supply chains in their communities to boost employment.&nbsp;



While Africa hasn’t yet suffered the ravages of the Pandemic on the scale that has hit countries like the UK and USA, the impact has still been devastating. Economic activity in Sub-Saharan Africa is on course by contract by 2.8% this year, the deepest on record. The collapse in oil prices has hit Africa’s second and third&nbsp; largest economies- Nigeria and Angola- hard, while the collapse of tourism and a drop in demand for agricultural exports to Europe have&nbsp; devastated economies from Kenya and Ethiopia to Cote D’Ivoire, Mauritius and the Seychelles.&nbsp;



South Africa, the continent’s largest and most developed economy, is expected to experience its deepest recession for a century with a 7.1% contraction in output.



Covid-19 cases are now present in every African country. African leaders have come together quickly to help each other fight the pandemic. In contrast to countries like the US and the UK they saw the risk early.&nbsp;



Within days of the first case being reported in Egypt African Union Chair Ramaphosa called a meeting of African Union leaders, and he put his own South Africa into lockdown before a single death had been recorded. Now African Health and Finance Ministers meet every week in virtual conference to co-ordinate their response and share intelligence with the Africa Centre for Disease Control and Prevention.



Cameroon has sent planes to the DRC to help that country get medical support its more remote areas, the African Development Bank has denoted $4 million to South Sudan to bolster its fragile health system, while the African Union has launched a medical supplies platform for all 54 African countries. This is designed to make medical supplies, test kits and protective equipment available across the continent.



It feels a much better response than we’ve seen in many countries in the global north and President Ramphosa says he believes this collaboration can form the beginnings of a more united Africa in a post-Covid-19 world.&nbsp;



He’s assembled an all-star team of senior Africa leaders who are already working on plans to implement the lessons of the crisis and rebuild Africa’s damaged economies. Leaders like the former Head of the African Development Bank Donald Kaberuka and the former Nigerian Finance Chief Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala see economic integration as a long overdue remedy to many of the continent’s economic woes and essential to developing a strong manufacturing base.



One key component of this plan will be the African Continental Free Trade Area which will be launched early next year to create the largest free trade area in the world, worth three trillion dollars with a market of more than a billion people.&nbsp;



The expectation is that this free trade area will encourage African manufacturers to trade with their neighbours, develop industrialisation, and reduce the traditional dependency on goods imported from outside the continent.&nbsp;



SMEs currently account for 90% of all businesses in Africa. Any transformation is going to require support for this sector through investment and training. These SMEs will be given training and financing to deliver solutions for Africa across manufacturing, healthcare, energy, digital innovation, infrastructure, agriculture and other sectors.&nbsp;



There are more than 600 Tech Innovation hubs across Africa. Africa’s digital revolution will emerge from them, especially in the sectors of e-commerce, distance learning for schools and universities to train better educated populations, and big opportunities in renewables and energy infrastructure to start plugging the continent’s electricity deficit.



Agribusiness is also thought to be ripe for investment. With the opportunity to move more and more of African’s millions of farmers from subsistence to commercial enterprises, there’s no reason why Africa can’t become the world’s bread basket.



The Covid-19 crisis has also brought about a realisation that Africa has great opportunities in health care. Africa currently imports most of its ventilators, masks and personal protective equipment for its doctors and nurses. It also imports almost 100% of its drugs and medicines to the tune of $15 billion a year. There are massive opportunities here for African companies to produce many of these materials, create generic drugs and local supply chains.&nbsp;



I’ve seen many more blueprints for the future of Africa in webinar discussions during this long lockdown. What unites them all is a general agreement that when we finally emerge from this pandemic&nbsp; it mustn’t be back to “business as usual.”&nbsp;



Peter Burdin is the former Africa editor for the BBC.

Peter Burdin

COMMENT: What will be the new Africa post COVID-19?

Antonio Pedro during ECA at 60_GREAT PIC

The Day After COVID-19: Overcoming the Novel Coronavirus double jeopardy in Central Africa

<figure><img decoding="async" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/343219/original/file-20200622-54985-15pc17f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" /><figcaption>A warning sign advising users to be aware of their surroundings while playing a video game. 
Stefan Heunis/AFP via Getty Images
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Six years ago, a <a href="https://www.cbn.gov.ng/cashless/">cashless policy</a> became fully operational in Nigeria. The aim was to encourage electronic transactions with a view to reducing the amount of physical cash in the economy. The logic was that this would minimise the risk of cash-related crimes.
But a major downside of the policy has been <a href="https://nairametrics.com/2019/10/24/fraud-cases-hit-major-payment-channels-across-nigerian-banks/">pervasive</a> electronic banking fraud (e-fraud). Although the cashless banking system was designed to foster transparency, curb corruption and drive financial inclusion, it’s threatened by the growing perpetration of fraud.
<a href="https://ndic.gov.ng/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/NDIC-2018-ANNUAL-REPORT.pdf">About N15.5 billion</a> was lost to bank fraud in 2018. About 60% of the fraud was perpetrated online owing to available internet-based and tech-rated banking services.
Our <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0306624X20928028">research</a> investigated dimensions of electronic fraud in Nigeria. We found three: internal fraud carried out by banking staff; external fraud carried out by ordinary Nigerians; and collaboration between fraudsters and banking staff.
We found that inefficient supervision, non-performance of oversight by regional heads of banks, and poor follow-up on customers’ addresses (Know Your Customer) accounted for the fraud that took place.
Our study provides the banking industry, banking public and investors with critical pointers on how to reduce fraud.
<h2>Different types</h2>
Our study involved collecting data as well as conducting interviews with 30 people. These included victims of bank fraud, bank customers who did not subscribe to the cashless policy and fraud detectives at the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC).
These were the common patterns we uncovered.
Insider fraud: By insider, we mean those working with banks or those in a relationship with account holders. Here, the fraud was exclusively executed by members of staff in the banking system who exploited the strategic position they held in the system and their grasp of how it works. Banking institutions and customers were their victims.
An example we came across during our research was the case of a N90 million (US$452,261) fraud perpetrated by an account officer of a major eatery in Lagos State. The job of this account officer was to collect the eatery’s takings and deposit them at the bank. A fraud detective told us that:
<blockquote>As the account officer he would collect money on a daily basis and was expected to credit the company’s account. However, he would collect money on Monday and lodge it and collect on Tuesday and not lodge it. He was missing one day out. He did this continuously until he was able to rake in N90 million. At this time, when the eatery management raised the alarm on their account, he ran away and could not be found. We however used his sister to arrest him. We were only able to recover N8 million naira from him. He had used part of the money to organise his wedding, had a baby and almost completed a four-bedroom bungalow at another area in Lagos.</blockquote>
Bank fraud is often successful because many Nigerians don’t subscribe to transaction alerts. The eatery management trusted their account officer but did not know that he was dishonest.
Outsider fraud: These perpetrators were external to the banking system. They thrived on their internet skills and sometimes on their understanding of the victims’ routine and identity.
An example we came across was the fraudulent use of <a href="https://www.cbn.gov.ng/Out/2017/BPSD/Circular%20on%20the%20Regulatory%20Framework%20for%20BVN%20%20Watchlist%20for%20Nigerian%20Financial%20System.pdf">bank verification numbers</a> (BVN). These were made compulsory by the Central Bank of Nigeria in 2014. All bank account holders had to undertake biometric registration. The intention was to ensure security and check fraud.
But fraudsters have found a way to cheat the system by sending bank customers false emails asking for their bank verification details. As one victim explained to us:
<blockquote>I needed to make some transactions and I headed for my bank. I had called my account officer ahead of time. On getting to the bank, I connected my computer and got a mail from a supposed same bank. I was asked to click on a link and supply my BVN details for update of my account or face service suspension on the account. I just clicked the link and supplied my details and behold, N1 million debit alert came on my phone within five minutes! I was shocked and devastated but before we could do anything they had withdrawn everything.</blockquote>
Collaborative fraud: This involved collaboration between bank staff and fraudsters outside the banking system. Banks and individual account holders were the victims. For example, bank staff could provide account details of customers to the collaborating fraudster.
<h2>Governance gaps</h2>
Despite this weak governance architecture, which is still not fraud proof, bank executives reported having in place mechanisms which had limited the incidence of fraud. One was sending out information to customers who subscribed to electronic alerts. Through this, banks contact and send anti-fraud messages to their customers.
Owing to reputational risk, banks try to refrain from public prosecution of erring staff. We found that banks adopted shaming as a mechanism for instilling discipline within their organisations while attempting to ease out “bad eggs” through flagging of their images on computers and across the banking industry.
There is a need to check fraud through customer awareness and financial literacy education.
While fraudsters continue to design new ways of working on customers’ vulnerabilities, Nigerian banks need to use the <a href="http://www.nigerianlawguru.com/legislations/STATUTES/CYBERCRIME%20ACT%202015.pdf">Cybercrime Act </a> to prosecute offenders as a way to boost confidence in the banking sector and deter fraud in the future.<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/141141/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/oludayo-tade-244002">Oludayo Tade</a>, Researcher in criminology, victimology, electronic frauds and cybercrime, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-ibadan-1955">University of Ibadan</a>
This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/electronic-banking-fraud-in-nigeria-how-its-done-and-what-can-be-done-to-stop-it-141141">original article</a>.

Electronic banking fraud in Nigeria: how it’s done, and what can be done to stop it

Ada Osakwe, is an award-winning food entrepreneur, investor and passionate African development advocate. She is the Founder of Agrolay Ventures, an investment firm focusing on early-stage innovative food companies in Africa. Since 2015, the firm has built a portfolio of 10 high-growth investments in food and technology, including The Nuli Juice Company, Nigeria’s fastest-growing farm-to-table beverage producer and a restaurant chain. She has an MBA from the Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University, MSc in Economics and Finance from University of Warwick, U.K. and BSc in Economics (First Class Honours) from the University of Hull, U.K.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="681" height="1024" src="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/thumbnail_IMG-20200623-WA0000-1-681x1024.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-374660" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/thumbnail_IMG-20200623-WA0000-1-681x1024.jpg 681w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/thumbnail_IMG-20200623-WA0000-1-199x300.jpg 199w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/thumbnail_IMG-20200623-WA0000-1-696x1047.jpg 696w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/thumbnail_IMG-20200623-WA0000-1-600x903.jpg 600w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/thumbnail_IMG-20200623-WA0000-1.jpg 718w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 681px) 100vw, 681px" /></figure>



On June 19, Osakwe addressed the Kellogg School of Management Class of 2020. She is the first African to be given this&nbsp; honour and fourth black woman; following in the footsteps of outstanding Black-Americans: Edith Cooper;- Global Head of Human Capital at Goldman Sachs in 2017; Roslyn Brock, Chairman Emeritus of the NAACP in 2012 and media titan Oprah Winfrey, in 2011.



“I was incredibly honoured that not even up to a decade after graduating from Kellogg where I earned my MBA, I was invited to address the class of 2020.”, said Ada. “As a young woman who has worked hard to promote Africa in all I do, this meant a lot to me. I was sad when due to COVID-19, I was unable to join them in person. But by God’s grace, we will do so next year”.



With a critical phase of their lives upended by the pandemic, the class of 2020 completed the last few months of their MBA degree Program virtually, rather than in the classroom, and they will receive their diplomas in the mail or on their phones. Recognizing the need to offer extra inspiration at this extraordinary moment in history, in her commencement speech, Osakwe praised them for their bravery, resilience and courage as she told of her career through business school and a private equity company in New York on her way to becoming an entrepreneur.



“After my time in New York, I went into public service, joining the Nigerian Minister of Agriculture as his Senior Investment Advisor. This high-level role gave me unparalleled exposure at the highest levels. After four years, I gave up all the power and influence that came with my position, deciding to become an entrepreneur instead. Friends disappeared overnight, and my phone wasn’t ringing anymore. It was a difficult time as I felt I had to prove my professional capabilities to people all over again and rebuild my entire private-sector career from scratch. Thinking back, it was just what was needed to motivate me to make sure my start-up,&nbsp; Nuli,&nbsp; became the fastest-growing beverage brand and fast-casual restaurant chain in Nigeria,” she said.



“So, in your quest to thrive, there will be curve-balls thrown your way and you’ll have to take risks, it’s a given. But you’ve just got to trust your journey,” she advised the graduating students.&nbsp;



Furthermore, she stressed the importance of&nbsp; finding your voice in troubled times.



“Globally, we are at a tipping point, as we see various forms of injustice being revealed. And so now, more than ever, the world needs brave leaders like you, and me, and all other Kellogg grads around the world, to provide solutions to the existential problems being faced by humanity. And so it’s so important to find your voice and help others find theirs too, during these extraordinary times.”



This message was important to Osakwe. She has been very outspoken about the Nigerian Government’s poor response to calls for support for small business owners in Nigeria through the COVID-19 pandemic.



“Small businesses, like mine, a group that makes up over 80 percent of the labour force of my country, have been left alone to navigate these shaky waters,” Osakwe, the chair of the &nbsp;Small Business Networking Nigeria, a new organization founded by small business owners to represent their collective voices and interests on issues around policy and business environment.



“So for the amazing women among you, let your brilliance and awesomeness shine through as you keep amplifying your voices. As a young woman, throughout my life, I have suffered all forms of biases and discriminatory practices in the workplace and society. But this has never stopped me from forging my own path to greatness. And so go ahead and crash through that ceiling, tear down those walls, and create your nice, comfortable seat on multiple tables.”



As a Black-African, in her speech, Osakwe said she will always speak out against racial injustice and urged the non-blacks to also find their voices on this issue as allies to ensure there is more equality, tolerance and acceptance for all.



“I truly believe crises have the ability to bring out the best in humanity. Class of 2020, you have a front-row seat in this journey to shape the world we want to see; a better world.”

thumbnail_IMG-20200623-WA0000

The entrepreneur who feels Nigeria has left small business to navigate COVID-19 alone.

As the restrictions imposed on the movement of people and social interaction begin to lift, people will soon take their first steps into a world that will be very different from the one that they had known pre-COVID-19.



Major trends that were gaining momentum before the pandemic hit, have accelerated in its wake. Digital apps have been central to this rapid and meaningful shift, mainly because they have brought accessibility, convenience and simplicity to the lives of consumers. Online shopping, on-demand video streaming, virtual meetings and the like, have been adopted by more people than ever before. But as we enter into this ‘new normal’, how will this affect the way we work, both now and in the future?



While many industry sectors are counting the costs of the COVID-19 crisis, businesses that have adapted and moved swiftly to serve their customers and their employees, are reaping what they have sown. Accelerated digital transformation that harnesses reduced human interaction, automated tasks, and increased productivity are simplifying the lives of employees during a time where the lines between work life and personal life are blurring.



Employees are finding less time for everyday self-care such as exercise, preparing food, and family time, let alone for arbitrary errands, like paying utility bills or renewing a driver’s licence. Buying items that aren’t considered essential or in-demand is even more complex. How can an employee source, pay and get delivery without having to spend time searching the internet for suppliers that are operating and have stock? Hey Jude, for example, is the world’s first human-powered digital assistant for busy people and gets things done quicker and smarter than they can do so themselves. Virtual assistants take care of a member’s everyday problems and personal tasks, so that they can focus on doing their job. By embracing digital technology within organisations, employers can help make their employees’ lives so much easier.



Digital technologies are also being used to improve the onboarding processes of businesses. While acquiring talent isn’t a priority for many employers right now, HR departments will still need to onboard employees at some point and train them remotely. Augmented reality can equip HR departments in creating immersive experiences for training and fast-tracking employees at home. Virtual assistants can be used to walk employees through an onboarding environment and be on standby to offer advice.



Since colleagues and supervisors won’t be able to meet face to face any time soon, employers can leverage the power of digital recognition platforms for peer-to-peer recognition. Specialist software can automate recognition and rewards systems to enable co-workers to remotely send and receive digital celebration cards, or social recognitions like virtual high-fives.



With new digital technologies and platforms being rolled out by the week, employers have more options at their disposal for encouraging their people to adopt healthy lifestyles. A major side effect of remote working are unbalanced lifestyles, and the over-eating, lack of exercise, and high levels of anxiety and stress that come with it. Digital technologies like Hey Jude offer innovative ways of managing employee mental health and wellness. Apps have been developed for this purpose, and can relay interactive voice conversations and animations to help workers adjust attitudes and reduce anxiety and depression.



By embracing and migrating to emerging technologies, businesses can better position themselves to navigate the unchartered post-COVID-19 business landscape that lies ahead, and keep their companies on course, now and in the future.



Marcus Smith – Technical Director, Hey Jude

Clarification on COVID-19 “hotspots” as SA moves to level 3 lockdown

How we can make money after COVID-19

The world has been reeling from the financial crisis and Covid19 crisis with reverberations being felt throughout the real economy on production, consumption, jobs and well-being. At times like these, we are all reminded of just how intertwined our future prospects have become and forced to reflect on how history has led us to our current circumstances. The economic progress of past decades has improved the material well-being of emerging economies while South Africa experienced deep looting of state owned companies, established with a centred vision to solve socioeconomic conditions.



The energy sector played a role in creating an enabling manufacturing processes, rapid standardization, industrialization and also make life more comfortable and enjoyable. Energy is the “oxygen” of the economy and the life-blood of growth in a developmental state such as South Africa. Acknowledging that the core problems in Eskom spring from broken generation and the solution is to lose the unproductive and attract the skills, investment and expertise to sort out the existing fleet, is crucial to turning Eskom around.



The challenge is, solutions focused on restructuring debt or finding new capital allocations doesn’t redress the critical deal with the broken vertebrae at the power utility, but cancelling Eskom contracts can assist and have cost effective electricity to help the industrial development and transitioning the economy to sophistication or innovation driven. Eskom’s expensive electricity generation inefficiencies, which are the cause of the growing debt, the collapse of South African manufacturing industry and expensive mining sector, needs be changed and that’s possible through prioritizing new service providers that are affordable.



The government can fix the Eskom problems and they don’t need to sell any division of Eskom to operate well, the president needs to restructure the energy facility as his main priority moving forward, to position South Africa as a manufacturing hub for the continent, that wìll prepare for upstream industrial production and reduce unnecessary imports to the continent.



The PIC propositions to Eskom bailout are steps leading us to the envisioned capable state. The PIC&#8217;s . Reuel Khoza highlighted that the impact of the bailout to Eskom and reduce financial crisis the power utility faces for about R400-billion in debt. Tatana Khoza further indicated that, Jointly the GEPF and the PIC have bonds with Eskom and those would amoun, while their proposed feasible solution of using R250-billion in PIC funds to pay some of the utility&#8217;s burgeoning debt are strategically placed to rebuilding the power utility as the core oxygen for the South African economy.



The PIC manages more than R2-trillion on behalf of the Government Employees Pension Fund (GEPF); Unemployment Insurance Fund (UIF); Compensation Commissioner Fund (CC); Compensation Commissioner Pension Fund (CP) and Associated Institutions Pension Fund (AIPF). The PIC’s role is to invest funds on behalf of its clients, based on the investment mandates set by each client and approved by the FSCA.



For PIC to be a catalyst of continental economic integration and a global investor and realise their vision to be a global leader in impactful investing, they need to prioritize re-establishing Eskom as a centre for continental solutions in energy, for Industrial development to peak the Africa continental free trade agreement and prepare for a great pie of the targeted or projected materials boom in the next 40 years.



It is a huge risk for the economy to neglect Eskom as diversified portfolio investments will yield lower Interest Rates of Return than expected and the economy will not recover from recession and COVID-19 crisis, as energy is a key driver for an economy.



Today’s global energy and materials industries are characterized by significant shifts, which are creating new opportunities. New trends and technologies are changing the way energy is produced, delivered and consumed, Eskom must adapt quicker. In parallel, and under the current production-consumption model, world demand for raw materials could double by 2060. South Africa must benefit and be a key player in every global economic boom.



Investment, innovation and public-private collaboration are needed to accelerate the transition to a more sustainable, secure and affordable energy system, while optimizing the net social and economic value delivered by materials. Strong partnerships and commitments within the energy and materials industries and across their value chains are essential.



South African focused economic development and Industrial production is needed to be used in pushing the boundaries of the energy and materials future through high-level, multistakeholder taskforces, bringing together leaders from the electricity industry, the oil and gas sector, the mining and metals industry, and chemical and advanced materials companies across the value chain.



Miyelani Mkhabela is the Executive Director for Antswisa Transaction Advisory Services

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OPINION: If Eskom is oxygen let us breathe.

The unjust killing of George Floyd troubled my soul, and brought me to tears. The global outcry prompted by the deaths of Floyd, Breonna Taylor, Ahmaud Arbery, and many others has prompted a much needed discussion on racial justice. The stories I have heard about the injustices in the United States today has triggered a reminder for me of South Africa’s apartheid that was similar to America’s Jim Crow. While advancements were made with the U.S. Civil Rights Movement in the 1960s, and apartheid ended in 1994 just over a quarter century ago, both countries still deal with structural and historical inequality that affects access to quality education, health and finance.



In South Africa, the recent global protests are a harsh reminder of historical inequality along racial lines. The celebration of Youth Day in our country commemorates the Soweto uprising and South Africa’s own ardent protests which have shifted from calling for democratic freedom then to economic freedom now. Protests are powerful because they bring people together to build social cohesion by rallying around a set of noble values. A common value for all nations to mobilize around is the reduction of inequality. We need to address and acknowledge those who are— and continue to be— marginalized in order for our countries to move forward.



As we see more and more division in the world, we must focus on establishing social cohesion in our communities by sharing our personal stories. Storytelling is the cornerstone of the human experience and human connection. Through stories we construct our world. In my book “My Blood Divides and Unites”, I tell my story and those of others around the world. There is power in your story and how it can connect to others, bring healing from lingering emotions and instil a culture of empathy. As I write in my book My Blood Divides and Unites: ‘’That’s because empathy— listening to the other person with an open heart and connecting with the other person’s feelings even if you don’t agree— can put you in the other person’s shoes, and that can often be a catalyst for repairing and strengthening broken, even hostile, relationships.’’



In the book I call on individuals, businesses, government and the media to use stories and actions to become inspirational leaders. There are many examples of true leadership and reconciliation that happens at a grassroots level. Individuals across all levels of society are utilizing the personal and professional tools at their disposal to engage in racial reconciliation, however, this reality is not always displayed by the media. I believe we can and should share positive stories of racial harmony and social cohesion. We must be intentional about being inspirational leaders in the area of racial reconciliation in order to motivate our peers to play their parts in ending inequality.



In closing, an extract from my book:



“Now is the time for inspirational leaders to move the needle and change the hearts of individuals and nations by bringing people together….”



Who is today’s Rev. Martin Luther King? Who is our Nelson Mandela, our Abraham Lincoln?&#8230;.I cannot say who the leaders history remembers and writes of will be, but I can say with absolute certainty that everyone can inspire others with their forgiveness,kindness, and authentic desire to connect. Each and every one of us can be an inspirational leader amongst our families and friends, and in the workplace and place of worship. Each and every one of us can be a “mini King,” and from this many, a few will rise to inspire us to even greater heights. Of this I am sure.’’



Jesmane Boggenpoel is an experienced business executive and former Head of Business Engagement at the World Economic Forum in Switzerland. She has served on the boards of various international organizations.

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OPINION: How the death of George Floyd should make South Africa ask: where is the next Nelson Mandela?

Students celebrated through the night as Oxford University decided to take down the statue of Cecil John Rhodes from its plinth at Oriel College – in all of this I am staggered that the debate about whether to exhume the old man’s bones has not cropped up.



Despite the respect in Africa for the dead, this was a hot debate more than 20 years ago and I reported on it for television. There were no hashtags in those days so the row was conducted in the newspapers and on the air. Remarkably, it fizzled out and even the late President Robert Mugabe – who was not always kind to colonisers – blocked the exhumation.



The grave lies in one of the most beautiful spots on earth high in the Matopos Hills above Bulawayo in Zimbabwe. I have marvelled at Christ the Redeemer in Rio de Janiero, the pyramids of the Sudan, Victoria Falls and the southern Alps of New Zealand; the spot in the Matopos is hauntingly beautiful; just to stand there and see for miles, with the wind rushing through your hair, is more like heaven than earth.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;



It was a place where Rhodes used to go and think and it is certainly a peaceful site for a grave if ever one existed.



“The peacefulness of it all: the chaotic grandeur of it: it creates a feeling of awe and brings home to one how very small we all are,” he once wrote.



Rhodes was buried there on April 10 1902. He had breathed his last in a beach house in Muizenberg, near Cape Town and a train took his body to Zimbabwe. In the final journey to the hills, twelve black oxen drew the coffin on a gun carriage. Thousands journeyed on carts, along spiralling roads, to pay respect. Chiefs from the land that Rhodes had taken in life respected him in death by saying “Bayethe”- the royal salute – yet, it is sobering to remember that the funeral was segregated – like everywhere else in colonial Africa at the time. &nbsp;



Anyone who wanted to dig Rhodes up would face a severe construction job; workmen carved out the grave, many metres down, in a shaft of sheer rock. The coffin is encased in lead. The get it out you would have to use heavy dynamite. It is as if Rhodes knew what was coming.



The other side of the story – oft quoted by young radicals – is that the spot is a spiritual site, called Malindidzimu. Therefore, by insisting on his burial there, the radicals felt strongly that Rhodes was trying to dominate Zimbabweans &#8211; even in death.



This was the argument ventured in the university halls and bars of Harare among the young Turks as the campaign gathered pace in 1998. It was led by the late Warlord Chakaredza who wanted to exhume the bones and throw them into the sea.



“He came from England to Zimbabwe by sea so he must go back the same way,” he told me eyes afire.



Yet the campaign was thwarted and Rhodes lies undisturbed in the rock to this day. Tourists pay money every year to go and see the grave, which means dollars trickle down to the people -somehow.



As for the statue of Rhodes ? I wish all of the world’s unwanted statutes of kings and colonialists and despots – whoever – could be melted down or sold to raise money for homes, food and education for people who need them. It is as simple as that. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;



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Students protest under the statue of Cecil Rhodes outside Oriel College in Oxford University

OPINION: If Rhodes must fall, should he also be dug up?

What we see in Africa is a remarkable paradox where the economic shock is outpacing the dreaded health crisis. The peak of Covid-19 infections has probably not yet been reached, yet recession and unemployment are very much present, resulting in serious consequences for the already hard-hit private sector. &nbsp;



The transmission chain of this economic contraction is actually quite simple. It starts with falling commodity prices- like oil, copper and rubber- and disruptions in supply chains heavily dependent on the Chinese and European markets.



The abrupt suspension of tourism and flying is also a huge hit for African economies. Health prevention measures and the automatic decline in the purchasing power of a large majority of consumers are naturally slowing the momentum of domestic markets. The informal sector, which accounts for an average of 80% of employment on can’t survive without daily business.



Without downplaying the strategic value of the health response and the funds allocated, the emergency is both economic and social, since mortality on the continent is so dependent on the growth curve. With demographic trends at less than 3%, Africa is creating poor people, yet the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts economic growth of -1.6% in the sub-Saharan zone in 2020 and a drop in real per capita income of 3.9% on average. The African Union (AU) expects the loss of at least 20 million jobs.



This challenge puts the private sector in the frontline. It is being impacted today but it is the prerequisite for a recovery tomorrow, provided that it hasn&#8217;t collapsed by then. The battle for jobs and against poverty is therefore being fought on the corporate front.



All stakeholders have to be fully mobilised to tackle this unprecedented challenge. It&#8217;s not about helping the continent – a bygone notion – it is about investing and continuing to finance the changes that have been successfully undertaken since the early 2000s.



From this point of view, under the impetus of the African Union, the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) and bilateral and multilateral donors, the macroeconomic policies undertaken in recent weeks to, first and foremost, restore budgetary room for manoeuvre to African States, are obviously moving in the right direction. Whether it is the debt moratorium, the massive provision of liquidity, or the use of Special Drawing Rights, everything must be put on the table, and quickly.



However, we also need to go deeper into the micro-economy to save SMEs and safeguard regional and continental champions. They are the stalwarts of African resilience. To achieve this, a two-pronged approach is needed to facilitate the flow of the promised funding to economic players, through targeted supply-side policies and innovative pooling of intervention tools.



One of the key priorities is to channel funding from international donors to the private sector through the rapid introduction of ad-hoc financing vehicles that can both identify the companies to support and manage these public funds efficiently and accountably. Institutional donors will have to rely on players in the field with strong operational capacity.



Given the urgency of the situation, conventional capital investment tools may not be the most appropriate due to the time required for due-diligence and other negotiations with shareholder groups with differing interests. It makes sense then to give preference to debt, quasi-equity and guarantee instruments to provide breathing space for companies with high potential in the medium and long term, but that are threatened in the short term by the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic. &nbsp;



The second priority concerns rapidly increasing bank liquidity levels and refinancing capacities to meet current requests for maturity extensions, as well as to prepare for the post-Covid recovery, which is going to need significant financing in order to be as reparative as possible. While States, Central Banks and donors are on the frontline in this respect, it goes without saying that managers and their shareholders must be fully involved.



For the first time in the history of humankind, all the engines of the global – and therefore African – economy are being hit by a pandemic. The response cannot be classical and orthodox. It must be strong, massive and inclusive. Only then will we be able to save jobs and avert the threat of a setback for Africa, which is at the epicentre of all the economic, social, demographic and climatic challenges of the 21st century.



Vincent le Guennou, Co-CEO of pan African investment fund Emerging Capital Partners (ECP)

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OPINION-COVID-19: Why African business must win the battle for jobs on the corporate front.

The Fourth Industrial Revolution takes the automation of manufacturing processes to an unprecedented level, with the introduction of smart, autonomous systems that are capable of self-cognition, self-optimization and self-customization. While these processes present numerous opportunities for producers and manufacturers, it creates a heightened level of uncertainty for policymakers and development practitioners. This is partly due to the new challenges that will arise, especially in terms of employment, educational systems and industrial policies.



The June 16 1976 Uprising that began in Soweto and spread countrywide profoundly changed the socio-political landscape in South Africa, yet 44-year later youth unemployment is still a struggle. The youth &nbsp;&nbsp;unemployment rate in South Africa&nbsp;is expected to be 70 percent by the end of 2020, as Covid19 puts jobs at risk for about 1.6 million to 2.5 million in South Africa. The International Labour Organization estimates&nbsp;1.6 billion jobs to be lost because of COVID-19 that could make it even worse for South Africa.



Secondary challenges for youth are the current Education that’s not aligned with the needs of the Fourth Industrial Revolution and Future Revolutions and financial exclusion at institutions of higher education and training.



Ultimately, the aim of Industrial revolution awareness for youth and families is to explore the potential impact of Industry 4.0 and digital technologies on developing countries and youth participation in the future job market, given the changing dynamics. The transformative potential of digital technologies is clear and must therefore be properly understood and utilized to take advantage of opportunities, while mitigating the challenges, specifically for the youth.



Youth training Forum to adapt with current and future industrial revolution focusing on Soft skills (uniquely human skills) such as creativity, complex problem-solving, emotional intelligence and critical thinking, which will be irreplaceable by machines; Technical skills ( Computer programming, coding, project management, financial management, mechanical functions, scientific tasks, technology-based skills); Entrepreneurship ( Initiative, innovation, creativity, industriousness, resourcefulness, resilience, ingenuity, curiosity, optimism, risk-taking, courage, business acumen, business execution) needs to be &nbsp;considered for the empowering of young people and ensuring inclusiveness and equality.



There is a general consensus that Socio-economic features in South Africa including structurally high unemployment and income and wealth inequality are longstanding and deeply-entrenched constraints on the country&#8217;s growth potential. Deep inequalities – South Africa&#8217;s income inequality is among the highest globally, as measured by the Gini index – and resistance to reforms from key stakeholders limit the government&#8217;s room to adopt and implement structural reforms.



Adaptive challenges&nbsp;are volatile, unpredictable, complex and ambiguous in nature.&nbsp;Solutions&nbsp;to this type of&nbsp;challenge&nbsp;usually require people to learn new ways of doing things, change their attitudes, values and norms and adopt an experimental mind-set.



South African progress has also been distributed unevenly, both within our demographics such as race, gender and generations. Adding to the problem, however, is the fact that certain sections of the population, often women, children, people with disabilities and majority groups, are systematically left behind.



Reducing poverty, youth unemployment and inequality must be the main objectives of South African private and public leaders.&nbsp; The 2030 Agenda aims to ‘end poverty in all its forms everywhere’ (SDG 1) and to ‘reduce inequality within and among countries’ (SDG 10). The significance of the issues of poverty and inequality is also manifested in the implementation principle of the 2030 Agenda ‘Leave no one behind’ (LNOB). Leaving no youth behind will assist South Africa not to create future unemployment and add to welfare spending to the continuous generated future dependence, a big risk for the nation that needs to be mitigated. The SDG 1 and SDG 10 of the 2030 Agenda and the ‘Leave no one behind’ principle needs to be practically strengthened for the South Africa, in building a developmental state.



South Africa will need to solve it’s intractable challenges to reinstate it’s economic development and growth objectives, through an economic investment collaboration to re-establish mining, agriculture and manufacturing sectors, to reactivate the services industries for a holistic economic development and growth national happiness improvement. Miyelani Mkhabela is an Executive Director at Antswisa Transaction Advisory Services

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Youth Day 2020: OPINION: Why a changing world means more trouble for South Africa’s youth.

By Penny Mkhize



As we pause to celebrate the spirit of the young of South Africa on Youth Day this June 16 we must remember many of them are suffering in the scary, uncertain, world of COVID-19 with the same underlying iniquities that drove them to rebellion in 1976.  



June looked promising with the prospect of parole from lockdown with the hope of returning to normal in 21 days. It was a risk in this global pandemic; the trends in other countries in lockdown stood as a warning.



Yet, at this time , we must look back in sorrow at the damage of COVID-19 and consider how much it will hurt the youth of South Africa.&nbsp;



Around half of South African companies will go to the wall in the post COVID-19&nbsp; world – whatever that will look like – and millions of jobs will disappear with them.&nbsp;



The youth were struggling to find jobs long before the lockdown in a shaky economy .&nbsp;



You could argue the grandchildren of the young bloods of Soweto have more opportunities without the pass laws and police that haunted their forebears; yet how much opportunity will any have in an economy that is unable to absorb them?&nbsp;



Then there is the question of online schooling for children at home in the lockdown. Not everyone has fibre and an expensive laptop with which to do this. If ever the pandemic exposed, cruelly, the gulf between the haves and have nots – this was it.&nbsp;



On top of this, how do you study, or even social distance or work from home when you live with your parents and ten other family members in a four-room house? That dreadful feeling of knowing you falling behind in everything, be it school work or working for a company, must be soul destroying. It is&nbsp; a struggle for many of the young that persists 44 years after the Soweto uprising.



This struggle takes a toll on the mind as well as the body. We saw an increase in mental health conditions in this pandemic as the youth navigated the uncertainty of the future amidst an academic year turned upside down. Many are seen as the future breadwinners in their families and this responsibility, along with the uncertainty, must have weighed on their shoulders like lead.&nbsp;



Even those who managed to hang onto their jobs, lost income and cowered down as they saw people around them struggling to scrape together money for bread.&nbsp;



This is the reality of our youth. The fight for survival both in the mind and the harsh reality of the streets.



It was a cruel, if unintended, irony that COVID-19 saw soldiers back on the streets of Soweto to enforce the lockdown. It brought back bitter memories of how soldiers once kept the youth in line through the barrel of the gun. But the relentless, brave and undying spirit of our 1976 youth has stood the test of time and the pain of oppression to survive.&nbsp;



The youth is fighting to&nbsp; live and be heard. We witnessed this indomitable spirit in this pandemic that descended like a heavy cloud on poor communities already struggling.



In those difficult days the youth rose to make their voices heard through sharing information and sparking debates on social media by posting vital information on the pandemic. They also raised their voices to government about the high unemployment rate, concerns about their living conditions and the disrupted academic year.&nbsp;



It is safe to say that we are going to make it through this pandemic and that we are all in together. When we say God bless South Africa and her people, it is a declaration of survival. We cannot and will not fail as a people; remember this on Youth Day and be proud of our young.

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Opinion: Youth Day – Why South African youth are still fighting

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 President Ramaphosa’s government is easing the lockdown because of unsustainable economic costs. 
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/sean-mfundza-muller-298216">Seán Mfundza Muller</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-johannesburg-1275">University of Johannesburg</a>
When President Cyril Ramaphosa announced the decision to implement an initial 21-day national lockdown in response to the threat posed by the COVID-19 pandemic, he referred to “modelling” on which the decision was based. A <a href="https://www.news24.com/news24/southafrica/news/exclusive-the-terrifying-coronavirus-projections-that-pushed-government-into-lockdown-action-20200319">media report</a> a few days later based on leaked information claimed that the government had been told that “a slow and inadequate response by government to the outbreak could result in anywhere between 87,900 and 351,000 deaths”. These estimates, the report said, were based on, respectively, population infection rates of 10% to 40%.
In late April, the chair of the health minister’s advisory committee sub-committee on public health <a href="https://www.businesslive.co.za/fm/features/2020-04-24-sas-covid-19-models-were-flawed-says-former-nicd-expert/">referred to the early models</a> used by the government as “back-of-the-envelope calculations”, saying they were “flawed and illogical and made wild assumptions”.
These assertions have been impossible to fully assess. This is because no official information on the modelling has ever been released – despite its apparently critical role.
A <a href="https://sacoronavirus.co.za/2020/04/13/sas-covid-19-epidemic-trends-next-steps/">briefing by the chair</a> of the health minister’s advisory committee in mid-April sketched some basic details of what the government’s health advisors believed about the likely peak and timing of the epidemic. But no details were given on expected infections, hospital admissions or deaths.
A spokesperson for the presidency <a href="https://www.timeslive.co.za/sunday-times/news/2020-05-10-government-keeping-information-on-virus-under-wraps-to-avoid-covid-19-panic/">said that</a> government was withholding such numbers “to avoid panic”.
Finally, towards the end of May the health minister hosted an engagement between journalists and some of the modellers government was relying on. It then <a href="https://www.nicd.ac.za/diseases-a-z-index/covid-19/surveillance-reports/">started releasing</a> details of the models and projections.
The predictions of these models for an “optimistic scenario” are that the vast majority of the population will be infected, there will be a peak of 8 million infections in mid-August and in total there will be 40,000 deaths.
To understand the significance of these – and the previous numbers – it is useful to consider more broadly what models are and how they are being used in the current context.
<h2>What models are and how they are used</h2>
A theoretical model – whether in epidemiology, economics or even physics – is a simplified representation of how the modeller thinks the world works.
To produce estimates or forecasts of how things might play out in the real world, such models need to make assumptions about the strength of relationships between different variables. Those assumptions reflect some combination of the modeller’s beliefs, knowledge and available evidence.
To put it differently: modelling is sophisticated guesswork. Where models have been successfully used across different contexts and time periods we can have more confidence in their accuracy and reliability.
But models, especially outside sciences like physics, are almost always wrong to some degree. What matters for decision-making is that they are “right enough”. In the current situation, the difference between predicting 35,000 and 40,000 deaths probably won’t change policy decisions, but 5,000 or 500,000 instead of 40,000 might.
In the case of South Africa’s COVID-19 response, available information indicates that epidemiological models have played two main roles.
First, they have provided predictions of the possible scale of death and illness relative to health system capacity, as well as how this is expected to play out over time.
Second, they have been used to assess the success and effects of the government’s intervention strategies.
There are reasons to believe that there have been significant failures in both cases, in the modelling itself and especially in the way that it has been used.
In recent weeks, the government and its advisors have been keen to emphasise the uncertainty of the modelling predictions. From a methodological point of view, that is the responsible stance. But it’s too little too late.
Modelling COVID-19 is <a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-weve-had-imperial-oxford-and-many-more-models-but-none-can-have-all-the-answers-135137">challenging in general</a>, but there are at least four additional reasons to be cautious about our COVID-19 models.
<h2>Reasons for caution</h2>
First, certain key characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 remain unknown and the subject of debate among medical experts.
Second, unlike some countries, South Africa does not have detailed data on the dynamics of social interactions and the models presented so far do not use household survey data as a proxy. Nuanced questions therefore aren’t addressed. For example, most cases early on in the epidemic appeared to have been relatively wealthy travellers. But there was no way to model the consequences of domestic workers being exposed by their employers and thereby infecting others in their (poorer) communities. So the structure of South Africa’s models is high level and does not account for country-specific factors.
Third, the values for the parameters of the models (representing the strength of relationships between different factors) are being taken from evidence in other countries. They may not actually be the same in South Africa.
Finally, the unsystematic nature of aspects of the government’s approach to testing, such as through its community screening programme, makes it much harder to infer the effects of its interventions.
<h2>Unclear objectives</h2>
There is little reason to believe that government had anything other than good intentions. Nevertheless, the consequences of its lack of sophistication in using evidence and expertise may burden an entire generation of South Africans.
A major problem linked to the combination of excessive confidence and secrecy is that the government’s strategy was never clear: although it referred to “flattening the curve” it never stated what its specific objectives were. In the terms of <a href="https://spiral.imperial.ac.uk:8443/handle/10044/1/77482">the most influential modelling-based advice</a> during the pandemic, was its strategy “suppression” or “mitigation”?
The government and its advisors have made much of the fact that the lockdown probably delayed the peak of the epidemic. But there is no evidence so far that this was worth the cost – since most of the population is expected to be infected anyway.
One key claim is that the lockdown bought the country time to prepare the health system.
The <a href="http://spiral.imperial.ac.uk/handle/10044/1/77482">Imperial model</a> defined the primary objective of “flattening the curve” as reducing ICU admissions below the number of critical care beds. On that dimension, the government’s own modellers predict a peak of 20,000 critical cases in the optimistic scenario and only about 4,000 ICU beds with little increase from the pre-lockdown numbers. By this definition, it has failed dismally.
There appears to have been more success with securing supplies of personal protective equipment, quarantine locations, overflow beds and some ventilators. But there is also little evidence that many of those small gains could not have been achieved without such a costly lockdown.
Given this, it is concerning that many academics and commentators have praised the success of government’s strategy. This has included the Academy of Sciences, which <a href="https://www.assaf.org.za/index.php/news/626-public-statement-on-covid19">has asserted</a> that “strong, science-based governmental leadership has saved many lives, for which South Africa can be thankful”.
This is entirely unsubstantiated.
First, the full toll of the epidemic will be experienced over time and so it is possible to have fewer deaths at the outset due to a policy intervention being exceeded by a larger number of deaths later because of the limitations of that same policy intervention.
Second, the only way to substantiate such claims would be to use models of different scenarios. But we’ve seen that the early models were not credible and the subsequent ones are subject to a great deal of uncertainty. It seems that the government <a href="https://www.news24.com/news24/southafrica/news/lockdown-and-other-interventions-potentially-saved-20-000-lives-top-scientist-20200513">and some of its advisors</a> want to have the best of both worlds: they want to use dramatically incorrect predictions by early models to claim success of their interventions. This is misleading and does not meet the most basic standards by which academics in quantitative disciplines establish causal effects of policy interventions.
In an <a href="https://theconversation.com/covid-19-the-cure-could-be-worse-than-the-disease-for-south-africa-134436">earlier article</a>, I noted that “if the current lockdown fails to drastically curb transmission, which is possible, it would layer one disaster on another … the country may exhaust various resources by the time the potentially more dangerous winter period arrives”.
This appears to be the situation in which South Africa finds itself.<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/140002/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/sean-mfundza-muller-298216">Seán Mfundza Muller</a>, Senior Lecturer in Economics, Research Associate at the Public and Environmental Economics Research Centre (PEERC) and Visiting Fellow at the Johannesburg Institute of Advanced Study (JIAS), <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-johannesburg-1275">University of Johannesburg</a>
This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-use-of-covid-19-modelling-has-been-deeply-flawed-heres-why-140002">original article</a>.

Op Ed: East African finance ministers to present budgets for new fiscal year

South Africa’s use of COVID-19 modelling has been deeply flawed. Here’s why

By Chris Bishop and Nic Wolpe



Forty four years on and still black people are being attacked and despised on the streets of their country. On the 16th June, we pause to remember the South African schoolchildren who stood up against heavily armed police for their rights and paid with their young lives. A sad reminder of what vicious brutality, at the hands of police, went before the tragic death of George Floyd.



The desperate days in South Africa when the lives of schoolchildren clearly didn’t matter to the authorities; the late photographer Alf Kumalo was there in Soweto, risking his neck to take pictures, on that dreadful winter’s afternoon. Years later he told, with horror, how he saw police tossing the dead bodies of schoolchildren in a pile in the aftermath of the shooting that claimed at least 176 lives. Rarely was more blood spilt and innocence lost in Africa in a single clash with authority.



The memory of all can be best served by remembering and discussing the causes all sacrificed for. The youth of Soweto rose against the apartheid system. They were fighting against a system of instruction in schools, in Afrikaans, that condemned many of them to a life of servitude. In the words, borrowed from the Bible, of the architect of apartheid – Hendrik Verwoerd – such an education made the youngsters: “nothing more than drawers of water and hewers of wood.”



Both the Soweto uprising and the killing of George Floyd have their antecedents in the same deep seated racism whether it be in the classroom or the street. You can be sure the young Turks of Soweto in 1976 would have taken to the streets in support of George Floyd.



The howl of protest from Soweto was enough is enough; 44 years later we are seeing the same anguish emanating from the United States. The killing of George Floyd has sparked mass demonstrations around the world crying out for change.



The commemoration of the ‘76 Soweto uprising chimes with the massed George Floyd demonstrations with people saying they are no longer going to tolerate the brutality dished out to people based on their skin colour. The behaviour of some US policeman towards their black fellow citizens in not only deplorable, it is also a microcosm of this systemic racism that has seeped into every pore of US Society.



It affords us, in South Africa, opportunity to stand with our brothers and sisters in America to shout with one voice that enough is indeed enough. We won’t sit silently by and accept racist discrimination in the United States, or anywhere else for that matter.



It may have taken decades, but many of the young bloods of Soweto lived to see their children and grandchildren grow up with the chance of a brighter future with more opportunities. Let’s hope the children of the revolution in the United States protests will be able say the same in decades to come – if not sooner.&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;

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COMMENT: Youth Day 2020 – The link between the Young Turks of Soweto and George Floyd.

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About the Author: Dan Adkins is the CEO of <a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://www.transnationalacademicgroup.com" target="_blank">Transnational Academic Group</a> &#8211; Education Management Services Provider of <a href="http://curtindubai.ac.ae/?utm_medium=Backlink&amp;utm_source=CNBC&amp;utm_campaign=COVID-19%20Lessons%20to%20be%20learned%20from%20the%20pandemic" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Curtin University Dubai.</a> He joined the Group in 2009, prior to which he was in the information technology industry providing services for companies including IBM, Dell, Clorox, Philips, Hershey’s, Coca-Cola, Merck, and VISA. 
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The COVID-19 pandemic is unprecedented in modern times. Over the past 105 years, there have only been three to four incidents that have had nearly as severe and global an impact: the 1918 Flu Pandemic, World War One, the Great Depression, and World War Two.&nbsp;Events like these defined generations and inspired certain behaviours in those of that generation.&nbsp;Unfortunately, there are few alive who have first-hand memory of any of these events.&nbsp;Historically, coming out of such events, people have developed certain traits and lifestyles that reflect that hardship they have experienced and a desire to avoid such hardship in the future.



These events shared several traits; they were unexpected, unprecedented in their scope, and unpredictable in their impact and length.&nbsp;All of these traits cause uncertainty about the future, resulting in stress and fear which often lead to poor decisions being made that simply exacerbate the problems.



As these events were unexpected and very few people were, due to their situation and lifestyle, prepared for them.&nbsp;As humans, we generally live very much in the present and do not give a significant amount of thought to the future.&nbsp;Even when we do think of the future, it tends to be from a place of optimism, which is focused on our future goals and desires.&nbsp;&nbsp;But, just as companies should have a disaster recovery and business continuity plan, so should we as individuals.&nbsp;This however goes against human nature.&nbsp;Rare is the person who has achieved the balance of being able to always consider, “what is the worst that could happen?” and yet maintain the realistic optimism needed to prepare for the future.



After these events, people had an idea of, “what is the worst that could happen?” and were determined to make sure that if it ever happened again, they would be ready for it so that they would never face the fear and suffering that they had just experienced.&nbsp;&nbsp;It has been said that those who do not know history are destined to repeat it[1], therefore let us take some lessons from history so that we best know how to deal with the current pandemic, and how to be better prepared for the crises that we will surely face in the future.



Coming out of these events, most people had new priorities.&nbsp;First, they discovered what was really important in life.&nbsp;People had found that things were not nearly as important as people.&nbsp;Many people lost all that they owned during these events, and yet they survived.&nbsp;&nbsp;They learned that losing family and friends hurt much more than losing things and that even when all material things were lost, it was the support of family and friends that made life bearable and provided both a motivation and pathway to eventually recover.&nbsp;This led to both putting greater value on the relationships with family and friends and to having less desire for material possessions, as well as valuing character over status.&nbsp;&nbsp;



Second, they realized the value of having a reserve on which they could draw in the next crisis.&nbsp;These generations became generations of savers, who, as my grandmother would say, “set aside a little something for a rainy day”.&nbsp;While this goes against the natural desire to have pleasure in the present and to be less concerned about the future, the fear of suffering again was sufficient to overcome the desire for immediate gratification.&nbsp;Third, they came to understand the criticality of remaining employable.&nbsp;They understood that the social contract had changed and doing your job was not enough to ensure that you could stay with your company until retirement.&nbsp;This realisation led to an increase in enrolment in higher education that continues to this day.&nbsp;It led to a rapid growth in entrepreneurship that is still continuing. It also led to a culture of a strong work ethic, realising the importance of being seen as fully committed to ones work in maintaining job security.



Unfortunately, the seven decades that have intervened since these great times of struggle have changed the culture and the lessons of the past have been lost.&nbsp;Worldwide marketing efforts and the global media have glorified materialism, status and celebrity, leading to the death of the culture of character.&nbsp;The glorification of possessions and status have led to a consumerist culture that is far exceeding the ability of the Earth’s resources, and has led to less and less money being put aside for a rainy day.&nbsp;Over the decades, many of the social safety nets that had been established have been eliminated or weakened to the point of being ineffectual.&nbsp;As has been demonstrated in countries like Australia and New Zealand, proper actions when supported by effective healthcare and government systems, had the ability to stop the pandemic with both minimal loss of life and as little adverse economic impact as possible.&nbsp;Much of the damage that is being seen now in the world is directly attributable to the decades long destruction of the social safety net, especially the health care systems, and most importantly to the poor decisions of governments, with the United States, Brazil, and Sweden clearly serving as case studies.



As an individual, it may seem that there is little that can be done to improve the situation in this time of pandemic, but such defeatist attitudes serve no one well.&nbsp;There is much that can be done as an individual to make things better during the pandemic, and to make sure that both you and society are better prepared for the next crisis.



First, we must overcome the human desires to do whatever we want and instead take every possible action to limit the spread of the virus by staying home unless absolutely necessary, maintaining social distancing when in public, and consistently and correctly wearing personal protective equipment like masks and gloves.&nbsp;The 1918 flu pandemic demonstrated that those communities who followed good practices to limit the spread of the virus not only had better health outcomes, but also had substantially faster economic recovery.&nbsp;By controlling the virus, Australia and New Zealand have already been able to reopen their internal economies and are not facing a second wave of infections, while countries like the United States, which even according to the guidelines established by the United States government, is reopening too soon, will almost certainly face a more severe second wave similar to what was seen in the 1918 pandemic, which will cause even more economic damage.



Second, we would do well to personally take guidance from our ancestors who lived through the prior crises in understanding how to deal with this one.&nbsp;During prior times of crisis, communities worked together to help each other out.&nbsp;Those who had the financial ability, contributed to help others with material needs.&nbsp;A substantial informal economy formed based largely on barter, where people used what they had to help others and in turn received help themselves from others, much as my grandmother described trading vegetables from her garden for eggs from one neighbour and meat from another.&nbsp;&nbsp;At that time, social class was largely irrelevant and the community stood strong together.



Third, as we come out of the pandemic, we should apply the lessons that we have learned and live our lives in a way that both prepares us for any future crisis and is sustainable.&nbsp;&nbsp;Coming out of the crisis, we should realise how we have been manipulated by marketing, media, social media, and celebrity into valuing material things, often over people or character. The way that those in the most developed countries are living is absolutely not sustainable and would be catastrophic if adopted by the rest of the world. While absolute minimalism has its virtues, it may be too much for some people.&nbsp;However, everyone can adjust to living a life where they purchase only what they absolutely need, live in a residence no larger than is absolutely required, do not buy products for status or brand, do not waste perishable items, and use every product until it can no longer be used. This not only gets us off of the consumerism treadmill and stops us from comparing our real life to someone’s highlight reel on social media, but also allows us to save money to be better prepared for any future crisis and gets us much closer to living in a sustainable way so that Earth is still in good shape for our children and grandchildren.



Let us together pledge to take this global crisis and catastrophe and use it as the driver to make a lifelong commitment to living in a way that is sustainable and that prepares us for any crisis yet to come.



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[1]George Santayana



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