By Cobus De Hart – Chief Economist West and North Africa, NKC African Economics



After trending lower for three consecutive months, headline inflation increased by a larger-than-anticipated margin in September. 



The
consumer price index (CPI) rose by 11.2% y-o-y last month compared to an 11.0%
y-o-y rise in August. While fairly broad-based, upward pressure stemmed
primarily from the food price channel, with the reading on the sub-index up by
30 bps to 13.5% in September. So-called core inflation (all items less farm
produce) also trended higher, rising from 8.7% to 8.9%.



Nigeria
decided to shut its border with Benin in late August, reportedly to clamp down
on smuggling. According to Reuters, this strategy has now been elevated to a
whole new level. 



On
October 15, the news agency quoted Hameed Ali, comptroller-general of the
Nigeria Customs Service, as stating: “All goods for now are banned from being
exported or imported through our land borders and that is to ensure we have
total control over what comes in.” 



Reporters
at the news conference in Abuja understood Mr Ali’s comments in the context of
stating that legal trade across land borders will also be stopped, at least
temporarily or until authorities come up with a plan on “how best the goods can
be handled when we eventually get to the point where this operation will relax
for the influx of goods”. 



While
not explicitly mentioned, certain points are reportedly equipped with special
scanners where goods will still be allowed to cross the border. 



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://dk9s2z6zfj98v.cloudfront.net/publications/42265/OE_CHART_1_16-10-2019-0945263608.png?Expires=1602755126&amp;Signature=oQKd67pr5nc1xApprpSwY17EFYyqsVSlGAXy018tvepceHnknBsrC0Zu2jChWzHO6W10fyHtIcWxJFkweiah--Zxxwnx5JkUq1uwak043z1c4h~mZUabgxYG0AOVjRowsvKCViWsGBVzStYmC~nHAfA-EJb1-tNjePVPlsiNOk460odBOIVsH-x4T9QwxZkgHe1FXnbGN1JlGkdtrI45cWmBfR0YZfmBfzb~mk-cu5uyNCh7f0YrdxqzTDrusyjK7GAlUh-yAqpv4IXEv-iZS53lG8WYgTFWOb6E86D~wypz0Rn8sbOPKdvL1DqVJAiLLtMnstQ2ljeKwDD02RNLMg__&amp;Key-Pair-Id=APKAJVGCNMR6FQV6VYIA" alt=""/></figure>



The
closure of the land borders will have a significant impact on both the monetary
and real sides of the economy. The latest inflation print, with upward price
pressures fairly broad-based but still disproportionally stemming from higher
food prices, may already be an indication of the effect of the partial border
closures announced in August. 



Again,
as has been the case with Nigeria on numerous occasions over recent years, the
appropriateness of the latest policy is highly debatable. 



One
can certainly see the merit of the case being made in favour of formalising
trade and ensuring the necessary rules and costs are abided by; however,
outright banning of all land-based trade seems extreme. 



The
real issue arguably reflects the ineffectiveness of border controls more than
the incentive for people to smuggle goods, with the latter partially stemming
from the domestic opportunity arising as a result of market inefficiencies and
a lack of capacity and competitiveness.



Regardless,
the land-border closure will now add significant upward pressure on inflation
in the coming months as food items in particular will be in shorter supply.
Exporters of certain goods will also be affected. The extent of the impact will
partly depend on the duration of the land-border closure and whether traders
can find alternative routes. 



Smugglers will likely be more capable of finding these alternatives, with the real burden then falling on the law-abiding poor.

Op-Ed: Nigeria’s disinflation trend ends, as does land-based trade

#TheHashtag: Billionaire Mark Cuban’s lessons for entrepreneurs & SA vs. Japan at #RWC2019

By <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/divine-kwaku-ahadzie-797968">Divine Kwaku Ahadzie</a>, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/kwame-nkrumah-university-of-science-and-technology-knust-3522">Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology (KNUST)</a> 

Over the past two decades, Ghana’s <a href="https://oxfordbusinessgroup.com/overview/forward-momentum-construction-sector-continues-be-major-engine-growth">construction sector</a> has both contributed to and benefited from a rapidly growing economy. The government is investing in rail, road and property projects across the country amid strong demand created by an expanding urban service economy. This is reflected in the increased spend in the 2019 <a href="https://www.pwc.com/gh/en/assets/pdf/2019-budget-highlights.pdf">budget</a>.

In 2016 and 2017, construction contributed 13.7% to GDP. It remains among the fastest growing of the 21 sub-sectors of the economy, according to Ghana Statistical Service <a href="http://www.statsghana.gov.gh/gssmain/storage/img/marqueeupdater/Annual_2013_2018_GDP_April%202019%20Edition.pdf">data</a> and it employs at least 3% of the <a href="http://www.statsghana.gov.gh/gssmain/storage/img/marqueeupdater/Annual_2013_2018_GDP_April%202019%20Edition.pdf">labour force</a>.

Ghana has joined the group of frontier <a href="https://allafrica.com/stories/201812070220.html">emerging</a> markets. It is moving towards becoming an advanced economy characterised by political stability, rapid economic growth and industrialisation. But rapid urbanisation could also create slums if infrastructure does not keep pace.

<a href="https://webapps.knust.edu.gh/staff/dirsearch/profile/blog/8e18e316170b/From-Developing-to-an-Emerging-Economy-The-Stakes-for-the-Ghanaian-Construction-Industry.html">My research</a> looked into whether the construction industry has the policies and strategies it needs in place to continue supporting Ghana’s economic growth. I found that it needs to be structured and regulated to be more competitive. 

This is not happening as fast as it should.

<h2>Construction and economic growth</h2>

Frontier emerging economies are <a href="https://marketrealist.com/2014/09/characteristics-frontier-markets/">characterised</a> by relatively low per capita income, high unemployment and low activity in business and industry. Though Ghana has created a structural and economic environment that inspires some confidence in attracting <a href="https://www.gipcghana.com/press-and-media/680-ghana-attracts-over-us-3-5-bn-fdi-in-2018.html">global </a>investments, much still needs to be done and the political dispensation needs to remain stable. 

One theory is that construction industry activities are critical in driving faster development towards emerging economy status. Known as the <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01446193.2011.578959">Bon Curve</a>, it suggests that, as a nation migrates from developing country status to an emerging economy, it must be fully prepared to tap into the increasing volumes of construction activities that are critical in driving the accelerated development expected.

A construction sector index developed by the academic Victor Osei shows that the industry in Ghana has improved significantly over the last two decades. Osei also <a href="https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/80e8/e45bcb8be45a2dc11520c013a1f5d5326b5f.pdf?_ga=2.238966596.531414011.1570391299-164945947.1570391299">demonstrated</a> that there has always been a positive relationship between construction activities and growth of the wider economy. 

In theory, the Ghanaian construction industry should be at the point of being able to propel that economic growth. It employs over 320,000 people and more than 2% of young people, as well as providing more training and apprenticeship opportunities to young people than any other <a href="http://www2.statsghana.gov.gh/docfiles/IBES_Questionnaires/IBES%201%20reports/NATIONAL%20EMPLOYMENT%20REPORT_FINAL%20%2024-5-16.pdf">sector</a>. This can only happen if appropriate strategic action plans are put in place. These include efforts to integrate the informal sector. 

Industry players have <a href="https://thebftonline.com/2018/business/companies/construction-industry-development-authority-a-priority-for-us-contractors/">called</a> for an industry development agenda which would provide an overall structure and direction. Efforts have been made towards drafting a construction industry development authority bill. 

Progress however has been slow. One reason is the lack of a unified construction industry body to lobby the government to pass the bill. Attempts to bring various professional bodies together have been met with apathy. Civil engineers, planners, architects, surveyors involved in the sector are instead on entrenching their positions within the sector. 

The industry bodies are also generally uncompetitive. This is because they have remained traditional. They have failed to transform current economic demand into an opportunity to compete with international players and to access new markets in, for instance, the sub-region. 

<h2>Informal and wasteful</h2>

This is consequent on the lack of deliberate policy direction in raising first-class contractors to be global competitors. Because of the transient nature of activities in the sector and its ability to absorb relatively large numbers of unskilled workers, the sector is also heavily informal. 

Above all, it appears that the political elite are using the industry to <a href="https://www.myjoyonline.com/opinion/2019/July-16th/infrastructure-development-in-ghana-wealth-creation-or-wealth-consumption.php">consume</a> wealth. This happens when projects are discontinued upon a change of government or completely abandoned. This leads to locked-up capital in several abandoned projects. 

Even though the constitution of Ghana mandates succeeding governments to continue projects started by their predecessors, it rarely happens. Completed projects that have turned into white elephants are <a href="https://citinewsroom.com/2019/02/govt-misses-deadlines-for-completion-of-abandoned-hospitals/">constantly in the news</a> and the political class plays the blame game. 

There are lessons to be learnt from emerging economies such as China, Brazil, South Africa and India, whose contractors are beginning to influence the international market. They all have an apex body regulating and providing a deliberate construction industry development agenda. They have taken steps to enhance productivity and efficiency; set performance standards and integrate new technologies for efficiency. They have also improved occupational safety, health and environmental practices. They encourage technology transfer including export of construction products. 

The global construction space is becoming more technologically advanced. Ghana cannot afford to remain stagnant and uncompetitive. There have been several <a href="https://www.graphic.com.gh/news/general-news/establish-regulatory-body-for-construction-industry-govt-urged.html">calls</a> for government policies to support better project management practices. 

The starting point would be to pass the construction bill into law. That would provide space to pursue the construction industry developmental agenda, in tandem with Ghana’s quest to become a firmly rooted middle income economy.<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/124733/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important">

<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/divine-kwaku-ahadzie-797968">Divine Kwaku Ahadzie</a>, Associate Professor of Competencies/Skills Development in Housing and Construction, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/kwame-nkrumah-university-of-science-and-technology-knust-3522">Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology (KNUST)</a>

This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/ghanas-construction-industry-is-lively-but-needs-regulation-124733">original article</a>.

Ghana’s construction industry is lively but it cannot afford to remain stagnant and uncompetitive

JOHANNESBURG, Oct 16 (Reuters) &#8211; South Africa&#8217;s rand tumbled more than 1% on Wednesday to its softest level in a week after state power utility Eskom said it would implement nationwide blackouts for the first time in more than six months due to capacity shortages.



The rand was 1% weaker at 15.0550 per dollar, its lowest since Oct. 10, as of 0615 GMT.



Eskom said it will cut up to 2,000 megawatts of power from the national grid on Wednesday due to a shortage of generating capacity, starting at 0700 GMT (9 am local time) and up until 2100 GMT.



The comments pushed the rand past the crucial 15.00 mark, with deeper losses likely as the session wears on, traders said.



Struggling state power firm Eskom implemented one of the worst power cuts in several years in February, hurting small businesses without backup power generators and industrial firms that consume large volumes of power.



&#8220;There was an initial knee-jerk reaction to the announcement. And the longer it (blackouts) goes on, the worse it will be for the rand,&#8221; said currency dealer at TreasuryOne Andre Botha.



&#8220;Any improvement (in sentiment) will depend on clarity we get from now on about what is happening. But there&#8217;s definitely negative risk across the board,&#8221; Botha said.



A debilitating round of power cuts in February and March pushed first-quarter economic growth into contraction and raised the likelihood of the country losing its last investment-grade rating.



Bonds also weakened, with the yield on the benchmark government paper due in 2026 up 3.5 basis points to 8.27%. 



(Reporting by Mfuneko Toyana, Editing by Sherry Jacob-Phillips)

South Africa’s rand takes a tumble as Eskom plans nationwide power cuts

<figure>
 <img decoding="async" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/295966/original/file-20191008-128705-1src4ws.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&#038;rect=9%2C138%2C3109%2C2546&#038;q=45&#038;auto=format&#038;w=754&#038;fit=clip" />
 <figcaption>
 Zimbabwe’s food insecurity is more complex than the headline figures suggest.
 Shutterstock
 </figcaption>
 </figure>

By <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/ian-scoones-117123">Ian Scoones</a>, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-sussex-1218">University of Sussex</a>

Since Zimbabwe’s land reform of 2000 – when around 8 million hectares of formerly large-scale commercial farmland was distributed to about 175,000 households – debates about the <a href="https://zimbabweland.wordpress.com/2013/09/23/zimbabwes-agricultural-sector-goes-from-bread-basket-to-basket-case-or-is-it-again-a-bit-more-complicated/">consequences for food security</a> have raged.

A standard narrative has been that Zimbabwe has turned from “food basket” to “basket case”. This year, following the devastating <a href="https://www.climate.gov/enso">El Niño</a> drought combined with <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/03/cyclone-idai-destroys-zimbabwe-farms-deepening-food-crisis-190329142611666.html">Cyclone Idai</a>, some <a href="http://fnc.org.zw/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/ZimVAC-2019-Rural-Livelihoods-Assessment-report.pdf">5.5 million people</a> are estimated to be at risk of hunger, with international agencies issuing <a href="https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/ROSEA_Zimbabwe_HumanitarianAppealRevision_06082019.pdf">crisis and emergency alerts</a>.

It is unquestionable that this season was disastrous – only 776,635 tonnes of maize was produced, more than a third below the five-year average. Nevertheless, the story of food insecurity is more complex than the headline figures suggest.

It’s true that Zimbabwe’s food economy has been transformed over the past 19 years. Aggregate <a href="https://www.indexmundi.com/agriculture/?country=zw&amp;commodity=corn&amp;graph=production">production</a> of maize has certainly declined, and <a href="https://www.indexmundi.com/agriculture/?country=zw&amp;commodity=corn&amp;graph=imports">imports</a> have become more frequent. 

But Zimbabwe suffered food shortages, often precipiated by El Niño events, before land reform. These too led to the need for more imports. And surpluses have also been produced since land reform. For example, in 2017, there was a <a href="https://theconversation.com/land-reform-is-a-zimbabwe-success-story-it-will-be-the-basis-for-economic-recovery-under-mnangagwa-88205">bumper crop</a>. Some of it was stored and has been used to keep people going. 

Getting behind the headline figures and understanding an increasingly complex food economy is essential. <a href="https://zimbabweland.wordpress.com/">Our on-going research</a> shows just how complicated the picture is.

<h2>Farming and food</h2>

Since land reform, we have been <a href="https://zimbabweland.wordpress.com/">tracking livelihood change</a> in resettlement areas in a number of sites across the country. Our research is exploring how people have fared since getting land, asking who is doing well and not so well, and why. Some of our key findings include:

<ul>
<li>Crop production is higher in the land reform areas compared to the communal lands. Larger land areas allows new settlers to produce, invest and accumulate.</li>
<li>There are substantial hidden flows of food between land reform areas and poor rural and urban areas, as successful resettlement farmers provide food for relatives, or sell food informally.</li>
<li>There is a significant growth of small-scale, <a href="https://theconversation.com/irrigating-africa-can-small-scale-farmers-lead-the-way-113692">farmer-led irrigation</a> in resettlement areas. This is often not recognised, as production occurs on disparate small plots, frequently farmed by younger people without independent homes.</li>
<li>Trade in food across regions and borders, facilitated by networks of traders, often women, is significant, but unrecorded.</li>
<li>Market networks following land reform are complex and informal, linking producers to traders and <a href="https://zimbabweland.wordpress.com/2016/05/01/small-towns-in-zimbabwe-are-booming-thanks-to-land-reform/">small urban centres</a> in new ways. Outside formal channels, the volume and flows of food through the system is difficult to trace.</li>
</ul>

Simple aggregate analyses of food deficits, estimating the numbers of people at risk of food insecurity, do not capture these new dynamics. National surveys are important, but <a href="https://zimbabweland.wordpress.com/2013/09/16/food-crisis-in-zimbabwe-2-2-million-a-risk-but-where-do-the-figures-come-from-and-what-do-they-mean/">may be misleading</a>, and local studies, such as ours, often do not match the national, aggregate picture. 

So, what is going on?

<h2>Access to food: complex relationships</h2>

Food insecurity is not just about production, it is also about access. This is affected by the value of assets when sold, the ease with which things can be bought and sold in markets, the value of cash as influenced by currency fluctuations and inflation, local and cross-border trade opportunities, and all the social, institutional and cultural dimensions that go into exchange. 

When these dimensions change, so does food security. And this is particularly true for certain groups.

Take the case of Zvishavane district, in Midlands province of Zimbabwe. In the communal area of Mazvihwa, there was effectively no production this season. Some got a little if they had access to wetlands, and a few had stores. But compared to 30 years ago, production is focused on maize, which stores poorly, rather than small grains that can be kept for years. 

How are people surviving? Some seek piecework in the nearby resettlement areas; others have taken up seasonal gold panning; others migrate to town, or further afield; others get help from relatives through remittances; while others are in receipt of cash transfers or food hand-outs from NGOs. 

With small amounts of cash, people must buy food. It’s available in shops, but expensive. So a vibrant trade has emerged, with exchanges of maize grain for sugar or other products. And it’s especially people from the land reform areas who are selling their surpluses. Many have relatives who got land, and some travel there to get food, but there is also a network of women traders who come and sell in the communal areas.

Aggregate surveys almost always <a href="https://zimbabweland.wordpress.com/2016/09/19/food-security-in-zimbabwe-why-a-more-sophisticated-response-is-needed/">miss this complexity</a>. There are sampling biases, as the importance of the resettlements as sites of production and exchange are missed. 

There are data problems too, as it is difficult to pick up informal exchanges, and income-earning activities on the margins. The result is that each year there are big food insecurity figures proclaimed, fund-raising campaigns launched, but meanwhile people get on with surviving. 

This is not to say that there is not a problem this year. Far from it. But it may be a different one to that diagnosed.

<h2>Economic collapse is causing a humanitarian crisis</h2>

As the <a href="https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/world/africa/2019-09-26-zimbabwes-economy-in-steep-contraction-as-inflation-hits-300/">Zimbabwean economy</a> continues to deteriorate, with rapidly-rising inflation, parallel currency rates, and declining service provision, whether electricity, fuel or water, the challenges of market exchange and trade become more acute. Barter trade is more common, as prices fluctuate wildly and the value of physical and electronic money diverge. With poor mobile phone networks due to electricity outages, electronic exchange becomes more difficult too.

Collapsing infrastructure has an effect on production also. Fuel price hikes make transport prohibitive and irrigation pumps expensive to run. Desperate measures by government often make matters worse. The <a href="https://www.herald.co.zw/private-grain-imports-now-legal-govt/">now-rescinded</a> edict that all grain must be supplied to the state grain marketing board undermined vital informal trade. Meanwhile, the notoriously corrupt <a href="https://www.theindependent.co.zw/2019/07/26/missing-us3bn-an-indictment-on-mnangagwas-government/">“command agriculture”</a> subsidy scheme directs support to some, while excluding others from the provision of favourable loans for government-supplied seed, fertiliser, fuel or equipment. 

Economic and infrastructural collapse is threatening food security in Zimbabwe. Even if there is good rainfall this season, the crisis will persist. Farmers will plant, produce and market less this year. While food imports are needed for targeted areas and population groups for sure, this may not be the biggest challenge. 

Stabilising Zimbabwe’s economy is the top priority, as economic chaos is causing a humanitarian crisis.<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/124791/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important" />

<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/ian-scoones-117123">Ian Scoones</a>, Professorial Fellow, Institute of Development Studies, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-sussex-1218">University of Sussex</a>

This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/economic-chaos-is-causing-a-food-security-and-humanitarian-crisis-in-zimbabwe-124791">original article</a>.

What is causing Zimbabwe’s food security and humanitarian crisis ?

LONDON, Oct 14 (Reuters) &#8211; The quality of education and training provided by African countries has worsened since 2014, leaving many of the continent&#8217;s growing population of young people ill-prepared to enter the job market, an influential report said on Tuesday.



The Ibrahim Index of African Governance (IIAG), the most comprehensive survey of its kind on the continent, found that on average enrolment and access to education was particularly low in the tertiary sector.



&#8220;This has resulted in the burgeoning youth population being faced with increasing struggles when entering the job market,&#8221; researchers at the Mo Ibrahim Foundation wrote in an interim update ahead of the full biennial report due to be published next year.



&#8220;The current pace of progress is going to fall behind demographic needs as the majority age group in Africa now is under-15.&#8221;



The report rates 54 African nations against criteria such as security, human rights, economic stability, just laws, free elections, corruption, infrastructure, poverty, health and education.



Demographic developments are a hot topic in Africa, which, according to United Nations data, is expected to account for more than half of the world’s population growth between 2015 and 2050. The continent&#8217;s population is projected to double by 2050, and could double again by 2100, the U.N. has said.



The IIAG interim report said that while African governments have made some progress in improving infrastructure since 2014, on average they were lagging well behind their ambitions to revamp their economies.



&#8220;African governments have on average not managed to translate GDP growth into economic opportunities for citizens,&#8221; it said. &#8220;Progress since 2014 runs behind the rapidly growing working age population.&#8221;



The report noted more progress in health and nutrition, saying countries were making strong strides in combating communicable diseases and child and maternal mortality rates.



However, providing affordable quality healthcare for all citizens was still far off and the rising spread of undernourishment was a major area of concern, it added.



Researchers also criticised the widespread lack of key data across the continent, which impedes the ability of policymakers to monitor progress and adapt accordingly, saying vital population statistics had deteriorated significantly in recent years.



The report said just eight African countries had a birth registration system that covered 90% or more of the population over the last decade, and only three countries had a corresponding death registration system.



&#8220;Africa&#8217;s &#8216;data gap&#8217; needs to be urgently addressed,&#8221; the report said. &#8220;This will create an environment conducive to sustainable and equitable development, ensuring no one is left behind.” 



(Reporting by Karin Strohecker in London; editing by Jane Wardell)

Young Africans are ill-prepared to enter the job market as education worsens

<figure class="wp-block-image is-resized"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/gettyimages-652617766-594x5941.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-347815" width="709" height="518"/><figcaption>AUSTIN, TX &#8211; MARCH 12: Businessman Mark Cuban speaks onstage at &#8216;Mark Cuban &amp; Tech Execs: Is Govt Disrupting Disruption?&#8217; during 2017 SXSW Conference and Festivals at Austin Convention Center on March 12, 2017 in Austin, Texas. (Photo by JEALEX Photo/Getty Images for SXSW)</figcaption></figure>



By <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/tom-huddleston-jr/">Tom Huddleston Jr.</a>



A little self-reliance can go a long way for&nbsp;<a class="" href="https://www.cnbc.com/make-it/entrepreneurs/">entrepreneurs</a>.



That’s according to tech billionaire Mark Cuban, who&nbsp;<a href="https://onairwithryan.iheart.com/featured/ryan-seacrest/content/2019-10-10-mark-cuban-slept-on-the-floor-prior-to-becoming-a-billionaire-listen/" class="">told</a>&nbsp;Ryan Seacrest the “biggest mistake” an entrepreneur can make when launching a new business.



“I think the biggest mistake people make is once they have an idea and the goal of starting a business, they think they have to raise money,” Cuban said on Thursday’s episode of Seacrest’s podcast “On Air.”



“And once you raise money, that’s not an accomplishment, that’s an obligation,” because&nbsp;“now, you’re reporting to whoever you raised money from.”



Cuban says entrepreneurs who rely on outside funding can become too beholden to the interests of their investors, who might have a different idea of how to grow the business.



“If you can start on your own … do it by [yourself] without having to go out and raise money,” Cuban tells Seacrest.



Business experts and entrepreneurs often argue the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.inc.com/craig-bloem/5-reasons-why-i-always-caution-entrepreneurs-not-to-self-fund-their-startups.html" class="">pros</a>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<a href="https://about.crunchbase.com/blog/bootstrapping-business/" class="">cons</a>&nbsp;of raising outside money to start a business versus self-funding (aka “<a href="https://hbr.org/2016/03/why-every-startup-should-bootstrap" class="">bootstrapping</a>”), the latter of which can typically involve sinking the founders’ personal savings into a new venture and can result in slower growth if the business is reliant on slowly increasing revenue in order to expand.



While fundraising injects much-needed capital into a nascent startup, taking on outside investors can also bring pressure from those investors to grow the company faster than might be healthy in the long-run in order to create an immediate return on their investment.



In Cuban’s own case, the billionaire owner of the NBA’s Dallas Mavericks started his first business after moving to Dallas with only $60 in his pocket in 1982. Called MicroSolutions, the company was a computer consulting business that he&nbsp;<a href="https://www.dallasnews.com/sports/mavericks/2018/07/07/flashback-36-years-ago-today-mark-cuban-arrived-in-dallas-flat-busted-broke-and-the-rest-is-history/" class="">launched with money</a>&nbsp;he and his roommates made throwing keg parties and charging guests $20 apiece for entry.



Cuban, who&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/05/how-mark-cuban-became-a-billionaire.html" class="">had recently been fired</a>&nbsp;from a computer software store at that time, marketed his new company to his former clients from his previous job and built it into a successful business that he would eventually sell to CompuServe for&nbsp;<a href="https://sportsday.dallasnews.com/dallas-mavericks/mavericksheadlines/2011/04/15/how-mark-cuban-went-from-beer-stained-floors-flat-broke-to-billions" class="">$6 million</a>&nbsp;in 1990.



So what’s Cuban’s advice?



“Try to find something that you can make, or that you can buy yourself, and sell to people around you and then ask for referrals and grow the business that way and you can turn it into something enormous,” he tells Seacrest.



This article first appeared on CNBC <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/11/mark-cuban-biggest-mistake-people-make-when-starting-a-business.html">https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/11/mark-cuban-biggest-mistake-people-make-when-starting-a-business.html</a> and is republished with its permission.

Billionaire Mark Cuban: This is the ‘biggest mistake’ people make when starting a business

30 ministries are taking part this
year, with over 20 presenting. This is the best chance to get insider knowledge
on key opportunities, legislation changes, bidding rounds and more – direct
from the companies and government intimately involved in leading them.



Here are some highlights of the
National Roadshows and Bidding Rounds happening this year at Africa Oil Week: 



Sierra
Leone



Sierra Leone will be announcing
details of a new bidding round at Africa Oil Week 2019.



Led by the Minister of Mineral
Resources Hon. Foday Rado Yokie and Timothy Kabba, Director General of the
Petroleum Commission of Sierra Leone, and supported by Jonathan Copus, CEO of
Getech, the nation’s delegation will be announcing the opening of a fresh round
of exploration rights.



Only eight wells have been drilled
there since 1982, with the latest coming from Lukoil in 2013, following three
wells drilled by Anadarko (now Occidental) in 2009, 2010 and 2012.



Cameroon



The world of African oil &amp; gas
legislation requires closer scrutiny as new changes emerge. Cameroon is one
nation that has recently made changes to its Petroleum Code.



Jean-Jacques Koum, Advisor for SNH
will present on how these changes will provide greater scope for operators,
investors and the wider finance community to find new ground in Cameroon.



One of the key changes is tax
holiday for oil and condensate development, and a further seven years for gas
development. What’s more, production sharing contracts (PSCs), can be modified
to allow companies to recuperate “exploration expenses” from production based
on Cameroonian on or offshore acreages.



Somalia



The Horn of Africa is open for
business. Somalia’s Petroleum Law and Revenue Sharing Agreement entered force
in May 2019. The nation also unveiled its inaugural offshore licensing round.



Keynote speaker Hon. Abdirashid
Mohamed Ahmed, Somali Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources, will lay out
the future of Somali oil &amp; gas for an international audience of financiers
and operators this November.



“This year is a landmark year in the
development of Somalia’s natural resources,” Minister Ahmed said. “The Ministry
has worked successfully with the federal member states to create and equitable
and transparent framework to develop natural resources for the greater good of
Somalia.”



Nigeria



No continental hydrocarbons summit
would be complete without representatives from Africa’s largest oil producer.
Hon. Timipre Marlin Sylva and Melee Kolo Kyari, GMD, NNPC will be leading the
Nigerian delegation, and Bala Wunti, Group General Manager, Corporate Planning
and Strategy, NNPC, is on hand to give the latest updates and opportunities
from Nigeria.



Nigeria continues to attract
significant international attention. According to the NNPC, China is emerging
as one of its key partners. Data from the NOC reveals that Chinese investments
in Nigeria’s oil sector have reached $16bn.



Even so, the nation is aiming at 70%
indigenous participation in oil &amp; gas projects by 2027, so there’s a lot of
interest in how Nigeria’s hydrocarbons sector will develop in the coming years.



Mozambique



Mozambique represents 23% of all
future African capEx, making it the second largest recipient of investment
anywhere in the continent going forward. In particular, natural gas projects
are set to receive a major boost – up to a potential $50bn in capital
expenditure.



Following on the from the success of
significant large-scale projects like Anadarko’s $20bn Mozambique LNG project,
players from across the globe are turning towards Mozambique with great
interest. A proposed $5bn EXIM bank loan to fuel further development is only
making the nation more attractive for investors.



Forming part of the Africa Oil Week
2019 National Roadshow programme is a look at Mozambique and the promise it
holds for international players.



Two of the key players helping
transform Mozambique’s oil &amp; gas industry into something truly world class
are speaking at Africa Oil Week this year. Chairman of the INP, the National
Petroleum Institute, Carlos Zacharias will be there to discuss his country’s
ongoing development, alongside NOC ENH’s CEO Omar Mithá.



23
nations presenting at Africa Oil Week



This is just a handful of the
African countries showcasing their latest news, investment opportunities, and
more at the continent’s leading summit.



Be sure to check out the Prospect Forum, which features additional governmental presentations, as well as our Ministerial Panels on the Tuesday and Wednesday on our Main Plenary Stage. To find out more, see the full Africa Oil Week agenda.



Content provided by Africa Oil Week

Why Africa Oil Week is the place for major national roadshows in the oil & gas sphere

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) &#8211; South Africa&#8217;s rand inched slightly up in early trade on Monday, holding near a 3-week high it hit in the previous session, as risk sentiment strengthened following signs of progress in U.S.-China trade talks and a Brexit breakthrough.



At 0610 GMT, the rand was 0.05% firmer at 14.7470 per dollar, not far from Friday&#8217;s rally to 14.7100. 



On Friday, U.S. President Donald Trump said the United States and China had reached a &#8220;Phase 1&#8221; trade deal and suspended a threatened tariff hike, spurring a rally of emerging market currencies led by the rand.



In South Africa, with no local data due in the session, positioning will continue to be influenced to by offshore developments, traders said.



&#8220;The current levels of the local unit likely to attract some dollar buying interest, technically an attempt on 14.6000 remains a likely scenario,&#8221; traders at Nedbank said in a note.



Reports on Friday that European Union and Britain would hold intense talks over the next few days to secure a deal for Britain&#8217;s departure from the bloc as the Oct. 31 deadline looms large, also helped demand for currencies. 



Bonds were slightly firmer, with the yield on the benchmark paper due in 2026 down 0.5 basis points to 8.23%. 



(Reporting by Mfuneko Toyana; Editing by Rashmi Aich)

South Africa’s rand steady following signs of progress in U.S. – China trade talks

LAGOS (Reuters) &#8211; Global ride-hailing firm Uber Technologies Inc on Friday launched a pilot test of a boat service in Nigeria’s commercial capital Lagos to attract commuters seeking to avoid the megacity’s notoriously congested roads.



The United Nations predicts that Nigeria’s population will more than double to 400 million by 2050, which would make it the third most populous country in the world after China and India.



The combination of population growth and congestion has made Nigeria, and more broadly West Africa, attractive to foreign transport companies.



Uber’s chief business officer told Reuters in June the company planned to launch the service to carry travellers in the Lagos megacity of around 20 million people that is built on a lagoon.



The waterway service, UberBOAT, is operated in partnership with local boat operator Texas Connection Ferries and the Lagos State Waterways Authority (LASWA), said the ride-hailing firm.



“This initiative is aimed at providing commuters with an easy and affordable way to get in and out of the city’s business districts,” Uber said in a statement.



The pilot phase will operate on weekdays from 0700 GMT to 1600 GMT on a fixed route between two locations in the city.



Passengers will be charged a flat fare of 500 naira ($1.39) per trip, compared with about 300 naira by minibus for a similar journey in the commercial hub of the West African country where most people live on less than $2 a day.



At a press conference on Friday, Uber officials said there would be four trips a day, carrying up to 35 people on a boat, during the two-week pilot.



Babajide Sanwo-Olu, the governor of Lagos state, said the Uber boat service, and the use of waterways in general, were part of a raft of initiatives aimed at easing congestion that include a programme of road repairs.



“We want ferries that carry 60 to 80 people,” he said, referring to his hopes for the future use of waterways, on Thursday at a forum with businesses.



Uber’s boat initiative follows a number of motorcycle ride-hailing firms that have targeted West Africa as an area for expansion in the last few months.



Technology giant Google also launched a new feature in July that allows Nigerians to hear travel advice in a local voice on Google Maps. Another feature allows users in Lagos to seek directions from “informal transit” services, such as private minibuses.



Reporting by Alexis Akwagyiram and Nneka Chile; Editing by Emelia Sithole-Matarise

Uber launches boat service in Nigeria’s megacity Lagos, what you need to know

By <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/michael-e-odijie-828090">Michael E Odijie</a>, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-cambridge-1283">University of Cambridge</a>

The chocolate <a href="https://www.zionmarketresearch.com/market-analysis/chocolate-market">industry</a> is worth more than $80 billion a year. But some cocoa farmers in parts of West Africa are poorer now than they were in the 1970s or 1980s. In other areas, artificial support for cocoa farming is creating a debt problem. Farmers are also still under pressure to supply markets in wealthy countries instead of securing their own future. 

In <a href="https://www.academia.edu/36081141/Sustainability_winners_and_losers_in_business-_biased_cocoa_sustainability_programmes_in_West_Africa">research</a> published last year I explored sustainability programmes designed to support cocoa farming in West Africa. My aim was to identify winners and losers.

I looked at initiatives such as <a href="https://www.worldcocoafoundation.org/about-wcf/cocoaaction/">CocoaAction</a>, a $500 million <a href="https://www.academia.edu/36081141/Sustainability_winners_and_losers_in_business-_biased_cocoa_sustainability_programmes_in_West_Africa">“sustainability scheme”</a> launched in 2014, and concluded that they were done in the interests of large multinationals. They did not necessarily relieve poverty or develop the region’s economies. In fact they created new problems. 

To sustain their livelihoods, the cocoa farmers of Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana need to diversify away from cocoa production. But multinational chocolate companies need farmers to keep producing cocoa. 

<h2>Diversification</h2>

Farmers choose to diversify their crops for a host of reasons. These include a reduction in the resources they need to produce a crop (such as suitable land), and a reduction in the price they can get for the crop.

Cocoa farming requires tropical forestland. This is limited; it is not possible to keep expanding to new land to keep producing cocoa. So when the land is exhausted, farmers would benefit from diversifying to products like rubber and palm oil. They do not need to grow cocoa for its own sake.

A great deal of diversification occurred <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/13504509.2019.1641763?casa_token=SEeqiEebBHIAAAAA:YtWBLoutBFu_HLn6m1HeAo6L07Vd-knX1GE7PivCGXZAlTvgWZlF_idDLuqj1VbdmR-2DaVISHTCQfw">during the cocoa crisis</a> of the 1970s in Ghana. Cereal output increased from 388,000 tonnes in 1964/1965 to over 1 million tonnes in 1983/83, and decreased when cocoa was <a href="http://siteresources.worldbank.org/AFRICAEXT/Resources/258643-1271798012256/Ghana-cocoa.pdf">“revitalised”</a>. The same was the case with coconut, palm oil and groundnut.

But such diversification is more recently being prevented by multinationals and other stakeholders who want cocoa cultivation to continue. Multinationals that depend on cocoa as a raw material openly (and rightly) regard diversification as a risk to their business. So they keep spending on cocoa farming inputs. 

<h2>Why there’s a limit to cocoa</h2>

In West Africa, cocoa has historically been cultivated using slash and burn farming. Forest was cut down and burned before planting, and then, when the plot became infertile, the farmer moved to fresh forestland and did the same again. 

The new land offered fertile soil, a favourable microclimate and fewer pests and diseases. Growing the cocoa took less labour and yielded more.

This explains the link between cocoa farming and deforestation in Côte d&#8217;Ivoire and Ghana. A recent <a href="http://www.mightyearth.org/an-open-secret-illegal-ivorian-cocoa/">investigation</a> showed that since 2000, Ivorian cocoa has been dependent on protected areas. Almost half of Mont Peko National Park, for example, which is home to endangered species, as well as Marahoue National Park has been lost to cocoa planting since 2000.

In Côte d’Ivoire, the area covered by forest <a href="http://www.mightyearth.org/an-open-secret-illegal-ivorian-cocoa/">decreased</a> from 16 million hectares – roughly half of the country – in 1960 to less than 2 million hectares in 2005. 

Forestland is finite. Slash and burn is no longer an option, because so much of the forest is gone. In West Africa, planters are now staying on the same piece of land and reworking it.

This has created its own set of <a href="https://www.academia.edu/36081141/Sustainability_winners_and_losers_in_business-_biased_cocoa_sustainability_programmes_in_West_Africa">problems</a>.

<h2>Rising costs and threats</h2>

In both Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire, several <a href="https://www.academia.edu/36081141/Sustainability_winners_and_losers_in_business-_biased_cocoa_sustainability_programmes_in_West_Africa">estimates</a> of the cost of maintaining a cocoa farm show that the investment costs required for replanting have approximately doubled. <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Goetz_Schroth2/publication/261713726_Chocolate_forests_and_monocultures_-_an_historical_review_of_cocoa_growing_and_its_conflicting_role_in_tropical_deforestation_and_forest_conservation/links/00b49535482f8bcb1d000000/Chocolate-forests-and-monocultures-an-historical-review-of-cocoa-growing-and-its-conflicting-role-in-tropical-deforestation-and-forest-conservation.pdf">One estimate</a> of labour investment put the replanting effort at 260 days per hectare, compared with 74 days per hectare for planting using slash and burn. 

The extra labour needed for sedentary cultivation is leading to <a href="https://ilpi.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/20151126-Child-labour-in-the-West-African-Cocoa-Sector-ILPI.pdf">child trafficking</a> and child labour in cocoa cultivation. Child trafficking generally occurs when planters are searching for cheaper sources of labour for replanting. 

Planters who have successfully diversified into other crops have stopped using child labour. In the cocoa industry, however, the use of child labour is increasing. For example, the number of <a href="https://ilpi.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/20151126-Child-labour-in-the-West-African-Cocoa-Sector-ILPI.pdf">child labourers</a> in the Ivorian cocoa industry increased by almost 400,000 between 2008 and 2013. 

There has also been a massive increase in the use of fertilisers and pesticides to aid cocoa production without slash and burn. 

The increased input (labour, fertilisers and pesticides) for replanting land amounts to a higher production cost. It cannot be adjusted by price setting. Cocoa producers have no control over price; they are price takers. So the higher production cost reduces the profit made by cocoa farmers. 

This explains why cocoa producers in Côte d’Ivoire are <a href="http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/542291468243910934/pdf/PAD5080PAD0IDA00Box377382B00PUBLIC0.pdf">poorer now </a> than they were decades ago.

In Ghana, the government, through the cocoa marketing board, <a href="http://www.fao.org/3/I8329EN/i8329en.pdf">COCOBOD</a>, has managed the transition from slash and burn to sedentary farming. The government created a mass spraying programme to control diseases and pests. It also subsidised fertiliser and created a pricing policy that has sometimes amounted to a <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/a06abe2a-c1ab-11e8-84cd-9e601db069b8">government subsidy</a> this links need users to subscribe. Due to the extra free input provided by the government, sometimes supported by NGOs and multinational corporations, farmers have not become poorer in Ghana. But the approach has led to <a href="https://goldstreetbusiness.com/general-news/cocobod-looking-to-refinance-ghc6-bn-debt/">huge debt for COCOBOD</a>. For example, COCOBOD incurred GHc2 billion (US$367 million) debt for subsidising the price of cocoa <a href="https://www.ghanaweb.com/GhanaHomePage/business/COCOBOD-incurred-GHC2-billion-debt-in-2017-for-cocoa-price-subsidy-689641#">for the year 2017</a>.

Although cocoa planters are faring well in Ghana, it is not clear that Ghana’s cocoa sector is really a success story. The shift to debt financing has artificially produced <a href="http://siteresources.worldbank.org/AFRICAEXT/Resources/258643-1271798012256/Ghana-cocoa.pdf">the success</a>.

<h2>The way forward</h2>

Cocoa “sustainability” activities are not the way forward. Cocoa sustainability is a new form of colonisation in Africa, because its real goal is to prevent African planters from diversifying away from cocoa into other crops. These programmes keep the cocoa industry going under deteriorating conditions. 

The way forward is to switch from cocoa to crops that do not require forestland (new or exhausted), extra fertilisers or more labour. 

<a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-94-017-7294-5_2">Research</a> has shown that cocoa planters in Côte d’Ivoire who have diversified into other crops, such as rubber, have succeeded in escaping poverty. 

But that is seen as a major threat to the supply of raw material to Western multinationals. One representative of a large chocolate multinational explained “<a href="https://www.academia.edu/36081141/Sustainability_winners_and_losers_in_business-_biased_cocoa_sustainability_programmes_in_West_Africa">my enemy is not my competitor in the purchase of cocoa, but the rubber industry</a>.” 

In conclusion, Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire have to think about what is best for them instead of what is best for the chocolate industry and consumers in the developed world.<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/124761/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important" />

<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/michael-e-odijie-828090">Michael E Odijie</a>, Post Doctoral Researcher, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-cambridge-1283">University of Cambridge</a>

This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/ghanas-cocoa-farmers-are-trapped-by-the-chocolate-industry-124761">original article</a>.

Here are three reasons why Ghana’s cocoa farmers are trapped by the chocolate industry

By Gary van Staden, Head of Research, NKC African Economics. 



Mozambique goes to the polls next Tuesday, October 15, against a backdrop of new investment plans that would significantly improve the country’s economic growth outlook, but also some concern over the possibility of conflict in what is guaranteed to be a disputed outcome.



Presidential,
regional, and national elections are likely to see incumbent President Filipe
Nyusi returned to office, while his ruling Mozambique Liberation Front
(Frelimo) is expected to gain a majority in the national assembly. Some
regional governors, however, may well fall to the opposition Mozambique
National Resistance (Renamo). 



The
presidential race requires an absolute majority, or a second round of voting
will be needed. As things stand, Mr Nyusi may narrowly avoid a run-off given
that Frelimo managed close to 52% of the vote in last year’s local authority
elections, although comparisons between presidential preferences and local
polls would be a stretch.



The
only guaranteed outcome is that Renamo will dispute the results as they have
done for every election since 1994 – usually without any substantive evidence
of misconduct. The problem is that the continuous allegations of rigging and
fraud increase the political temperature, and violence is always a potential
consequence. 



The
other issue is that Renamo has a social media network that works to generate
expectations of misconduct even before the elections are held. 



Make
no mistake, elections in Mozambique are far from perfect. While flawed and
often disorganised, the outcome of elections tends to reflect the will of the
people and usually qualifies for the ‘substantially free and fair’ verdict from
observers. That does not always quell the anger of the losers.



A
more significant problem for Renamo is the potential for infighting to cost it
at the polls. The internal squabbles over leadership and other issues preceded
the death of long-time leader Afonso Dhlakama but have escalated dramatically
since his demise, even resulting in a breakaway by some Renamo fighters who
rejected the leadership of Ossufo Momade and the recently signed peace deal
with the Frelimo government. 



While
the renegade bandits are not regarded as a serious threat, they remain capable
of disruption. A more serious threat comes from a larger body of discontent in
Renamo over the same leadership and policy issues as well as electoral
disagreements. All this plays into Frelimo’s hands.



Recent
announcements by Exxon Mobil highlighting plans to invest more than $500m in
the initial construction phase of its liquefied natural gas (LNG) project has
provided a welcome boost for Mr Nyusi and Frelimo, with the project expected to
pump much-needed cash into the economy. 



Media
reports this week stated that the US oil company’s $30bn Rovuma LNG project,
jointly operated with Italy’s Eni, has a capacity of more than 15 million
tonnes a year (mtpa). The Exxon project, along with Total’s $20bn 13 mtpa
facility and Eni’s $8bn 3.4 mtpa floating plant, means Mozambique will have the
ability to export 31 mtpa of natural gas – about 10% of today’s global market,
Reuters reports. 



The
massive investments into northern Mozambique will fundamentally alter the
socio-economic and political environment of the often-troubled northern
provinces, but at the same time provide an incentive to grapple for a slice of
the pie. Violence by Islamic extremists in the northern province of Cabo
Delgado has resulted in some 200 deaths over the past two years, prompting
Maputo to enlist the assistance of Russian para-military to help quell the
problem.



These
issues – along with the renegade Renamo bandits, the alarming killing of an
electoral official (allegedly by members of a police unit in the
Frelimo-stronghold Gaza province), and the spread of allegations of voter
numbers being inflated – are creating tensions and concern over conflict before
and after the polls. We expect at least some measure of conflict over the next
few days and weeks, mainly because the environment is once again being primed
for such conflict from several quarters – including media. 



Once
again, Mozambique goes to the polls next week amid the same concerns,
allegations, expectations, and predictions that have accompanied the polls for
the past two decades. We expect nothing different this time. Frelimo and Mr
Nyusi are expected to retain power, with a worst-case scenario for the
president of a run-off. If the run-off is avoided, then whatever sporadic and
limited conflict that may get sparked should die down. 



Frelimo
has not always covered itself in glory, but the massive investment and
opportunity for growth and development now afforded in the north must not be
squandered, and this election could be a new beginning.

Op-Ed: While Mozambique’s Frelimo is the favourite it will be no cakewalk

OSLO (Reuters) &#8211; Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed won the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize on Friday for his peacemaking efforts with Eritrea.



Ethiopia and Eritrea, longtime foes who fought a border war from 1998 to 2000, restored relations in July 2018 after years of hostility. [nL8N1U5180]



The prize, worth nine million Swedish crowns, or around $900,000, will be presented in Oslo on Dec. 10.



“Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali has been awarded this year’s Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts to achieve peace and international cooperation, and in particular for his decisive initiative to resolve the border conflict with neighbouring Eritrea,” the Norwegian Nobel Committee said in its citation.



The Nobel Peace Prize will be presented in Oslo on Dec. 10, the anniversary of the death of Swedish industrialist Alfred Nobel, who founded the awards in his 1895 will.



Reporting by Gwladys Fouche and Terje Solsvik in Oslo, Maggie Fick and Katharine Houreld in Nairobi; Editing by Andrew Heavens

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed wins 2019 Nobel Peace Prize

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 <figcaption>
 Power station in South Africa.
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By <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/mark-new-189846">Mark New</a>, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-cape-town-691">University of Cape Town</a>

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<a href="https://theconversation.com/nz/topics/climate-explained-74664">Climate Explained</a> is a collaboration between The Conversation, Stuff and the New Zealand Science Media Centre to answer your questions about climate change. 

If you have a question you’d like an expert to answer, please send it to climate.change@stuff.co.nz

<blockquote>
How much climate change is natural? How much is man made?
</blockquote>

As someone who has been working on climate change detection and its causes for over 20 years I was both surprised and not surprised that I was asked to write on this topic by The Conversation. For <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/science/2019/jul/24/scientific-consensus-on-humans-causing-global-warming-passes-99">nearly all</a> climate scientists, the case is proven that humans are the overwhelming cause of the long-term changes in the climate that we are observing. And that this case should be closed.

Despite this, climate denialists continue to receive <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cjuGCJJUGsg">prominence</a> in some media which can lead people into thinking that man-made climate change is still in question. So it’s worth going back over the science to remind ourselves just how much has already been established.

Successive reports by the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/">Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change</a> – mandated by the United Nations to assess scientific evidence on climate change – have evaluated the causes of climate change. The most recent <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/">special report on global warming of 1.5 degrees</a> confirms that the observed changes in global and regional climate over the last 50 or so years are almost entirely due to human influence on the climate system and not due to natural causes.

<h2>What is climate change?</h2>

First we should perhaps ask what we mean by climate change. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/glossary">defines climate change as</a>:

<blockquote>
a change in the state of the climate that can be identified by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer.
</blockquote>

The causes of climate change can be any combination of:

<ul>
<li>Internal variability in the climate system, <a href="https://www.nap.edu/read/23552/chapter/5">when various</a> components of the climate system – like the atmosphere and ocean – vary on their own to cause fluctuations in climatic conditions, such as temperature or rainfall. These internally-driven changes generally happen over decades or longer; shorter variations such as those related to El Niño fall in the bracket of climate variability, not climate change.</li>
<li>Natural external causes such as increases or decreases in volcanic activity or solar radiation. For example, every 11 years or so, the Sun’s magnetic field <a href="https://spaceplace.nasa.gov/solar-cycles/en/">completely flips</a> and this can cause small fluctuations in global temperature, up to about 0.2 degrees. On longer time scales – tens to hundreds of millions of years – geological processes can drive changes in the climate, due to shifting continents and mountain building. </li>
<li>Human influence through greenhouse gases (gases that trap heat in the atmosphere such as carbon dioxide and methane), other particles released into the air (which absorb or reflect sunlight such as soot and aerosols) and land-use change (which affects how much sunlight is absorbed on land surfaces and also how much carbon dioxide and methane is absorbed and released by vegetation and soils).</li>
</ul>

<h2>What changes have been detected?</h2>

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/">recent report</a> showed that, on average, the global surface air temperature has risen by 1°C since the beginning of significant industrialisation (which roughly started in the 1850s). And it is increasing at ever faster rates, currently 0.2°C per decade, because the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have themselves been increasing ever faster. 

The oceans are warming as well. In fact, <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/">about</a> 90% of the extra heat trapped in the atmosphere by greenhouse gases is being absorbed by the oceans.

A warmer atmosphere and oceans are causing dramatic changes, including <a href="https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/peteraldhous/arctic-sea-ice-greenland-melt">steep decreases in Arctic summer sea ice</a> which is profoundly impacting arctic marine ecosystems, increasing sea level rise which is inundating low lying coastal areas such as Pacific island atolls, and an <a href="https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/03/180321130859.htm">increasing frequency of many climate extremes</a> such as drought and heavy rain, as well as disasters where climate is an important driver, such as wildfire, flooding and landslides.

Multiple <a href="https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/3">lines of evidence</a>, using different methods, show that <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/spm/">human influence is the only plausible explanation</a> for the patterns and magnitude of changes that have been detected. 

This human influence is largely due to our activities that release greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide and methane, as well sunlight absorbing soot. The <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions">main sources of these warming gases and particles</a> are fossil fuel burning, cement production, land cover change (especially deforestation) and agriculture.

<h2>Weather attribution</h2>

Most of us will struggle to pick up slow changes in the climate. We feel climate change largely through how it affects weather from day-to-day, season-to-season and year-to-year.

The weather we experience arises from dynamic processes in the atmosphere, and interactions between the atmosphere, the oceans and the land surface. Human influence on the broader climate system acts on these processes so that the weather today is different in many ways from how it would have been. 

One way we can more clearly see climate change is by looking at severe weather events. A branch of climate science, called extreme event or weather attribution, looks at memorable weather events and estimates the extent of human influence on the severity of these events. It <a href="https://www.worldweatherattribution.org">uses weather models</a> run with and without measured greenhouse gases to estimate how individual weather events would have been different in a world without climate change.

<a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/mapped-how-climate-change-affects-extreme-weather-around-the-world">As of early 2019</a>, nearly 70% of weather events that have been assessed in this way were shown to have had their likelihood and/or magnitude increased by human influence on climate. In a world without global warming, these events would have been less severe. Some 10% of the studies showed a reduction in likelihood, while for the remaining 20% global warming has not had a discernible effect. For example, <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aae9f9">one study showed</a> that human influence on climate had increased the likelihood of the 2015-2018 drought that afflicted Cape Town in South Africa by a factor of three.

<h2>Adapting to a changing climate</h2>

Weather extremes underlie many of the hazards that damage society and the natural environment we depend upon. As global warming has progressed, so have the frequency and intensity of these hazards, and the damage they cause.

Minimising the impacts of these hazards, and having mechanisms in place to recover quickly from the impacts, is the aim of climate adaptation, as <a href="https://gca.org/global-commission-on-adaptation/home">recently reported by the Global Commission on Adaptation</a>.

As the Commission explains, investing in adaptation makes sense from economic, social and ethical perspectives. And as we know that climate change is caused by humans, society cannot use “lack of evidence” on its cause as an excuse for inaction any more.

<hr>

<figure class="align-right ">
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 </figure>

This article is part of <a href="https://www.cjr.org/covering_climate_now/covering-climate-partnerships.php/">The Covering Climate Now</a> series
 This is a concerted effort among news organisations to put the climate crisis at the forefront of our coverage. This article is published under a Creative Commons license and can be reproduced for free – just hit the “Republish this article” button on the page to copy the full HTML coding. The Conversation also runs Imagine, a newsletter in which academics explore how the world can rise to the challenge of climate change. <a href="https://theconversation.com/imagine-newsletter-researchers-think-of-a-world-with-climate-action-113443?utm_source=TCUK&amp;utm_medium=linkback&amp;utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&amp;utm_content=CoveringClimateNow">Sign up here</a>.<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/123604/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important">

<hr>

<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/mark-new-189846">Mark New</a>, Director, African Climate and Development Initiative, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-cape-town-691">University of Cape Town</a>

This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-explained-how-much-of-climate-change-is-natural-how-much-is-man-made-123604">original article</a>.

Climate explained: how much of climate change is natural? How much is man-made?

DAR ES SALAAM (Reuters) &#8211; Tanzania&#8217;s earnings from gold exports rose 25.1% in the year to August, buoyed by higher output of the precious metal, its central bank said on Thursday.



Gold exports fetched $1.91 billion in the year ending August 31, up from $1.53 billion the previous year.



&#8220;Gold export rose by 25.1 percent … driven by volume, and accounted for more than half of non-traditional exports,&#8221; the Bank of Tanzania said in its latest monthly economic report.



It did not give figures for export volumes.



Africa’s fourth-biggest gold producer after South Africa, Ghana and Mali hopes its mining sector will rebound after a tax crackdown and overhaul of its mining code in 2017 spooked foreign investors.



Tanzanian President John Magufuli, who took office in late 2015, is pushing for more revenue from the sector, which is a relatively small contributor to national output.



In 2017, the government passed laws the industry complained would be costly and onerous.



Among the measures were higher taxes on mineral exports, mandated a higher government stake in some mining operations, and forced the construction of local smelters, a move some companies saw was uneconomic.



Tanzania’s current account deficit widened 30.9% in the year to August, underpinned by an increase in imports.



The gap widened to $2.18 billion in the 12 months to August from $1.67 billion in the same period in 2018.



Imports of goods and services rose 6.1% to $10.52 billion, while total exports rose slightly to $8.77 billion from $8.71 billion previously, the bank said.



Earnings from tourism, the main source of foreign exchange, rose to $2.34 billion from $2.32 billion previously, helped by more visitor arrivals.



Reporting by Fumbuka Ng&#8217;wanakilala; Editing by Clement Uwiringiyimana and Karishma Singh

Tanzania gold export earnings rise by 25% in year to August

<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/06/bill-gates-measures-his-quality-of-life-by-asking-himself-3-questions.html" class="">Bill Gates</a>&nbsp;takes risks that very few people in this world will.



He took a risk in 1975, when he dropped out of Harvard to build Microsoft. In 2008, he took a risk in&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gatesfoundation.org/who-we-are/general-information/history" class="">leaving Microsoft to work full-time&nbsp;</a>at The Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation.



And in 2013, he took another gamble, when his foundation contributed to a&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gatesnotes.com/Health/Our-Plan-to-Eradicate-Polio" class="">$5.5 billion initiative</a>&nbsp;to tackle one of the most ambitious public-health goals ever set: eradicating polio.



Those big bets have paid off — polio still remains a problem in certain parts of the world, but significant improvements, such as the development of effective vaccinations, have been made since Gates got involved — which proves that taking big risks and achieving great success can go hand in hand.



But how does one determine which risks are worth taking, and which ones aren’t?



That’s a question the Microsoft co-founder explored in a recent&nbsp;<a href="https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__www.gatesnotes.com_About-2DBill-2DGates_A-2Dbet-2Don-2Dhumanity&amp;amp;d=DwMFaQ&amp;amp;c=LO_8KzsOlAGvgA6hdGI4v02U_XLiES0sR51Zca0yIy4&amp;amp;r=fnb6sKq7SKN8iiAQiVc8NQSbL93Ztb9TeGwNUoj2-0Y&amp;amp;m=aAhBNd8-lxFKI-iBj-f-xL-V9DkaRQmJJjFwWmVYjQ8&amp;amp;s=yr5av7X0mps5r8cax_JevdltRMUuNVxvHIfp3fiANMw&amp;amp;e=" class="">blog post</a>, in which he talks about Netflix’s new series,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.netflix.com/title/80184771" class="">“Inside Bill’s Brain: Decoding Bill Gates.”</a>&nbsp;A major theme in the documentary is Gates’ willingness to invest time and money into projects that have no guarantee of success.



“Watching the series got me thinking about what the word ‘risk’ really means,” Gates wrote in his post. “Whether we invest $100,000 or $100 million, the decision is always calculated. I spend a lot of time thinking, analyzing data and talking to experts to judge whether we can really help make a difference.”



But Gates says no matter how much analysis one does, it’s important to be comfortable with uncertainty. “We are tackling problems where progress is measured not just in years, but often decades — where your end goal doesn’t change, but your path to get there might have to.”



Gates’ trick to being comfortable with uncertainty, he explained, is to continue learning and be open to new strategies that can bring him closer to his goals. “That approach has guided every big bet I’ve made in my career from Microsoft to today, including polio.”



A willingness to take risks is important, but Gates emphasized another key point: a good bet is based on proper models, not a hunch. In the decision to take on polio, Gates said he had a model in mind, and that model was the history of smallpox: the only human disease ever successfully wiped out.



Ultimately, Gates said his approach to taking risks is “very similar to what Warren Buffett does when he makes an investment on on a bet, that it will be worth 10 times as much down the road.”



“Warren spends a lot of time looking for a company that has great long-term prospects. Then he makes a big investment and holds it for many years,” Gates explained. “He’s famous for staying the course through market gyrations and economic cycles.”



Like Buffett, Gates also picks his projects carefully, looking for ones that will make a difference and create better lives for generations to come. Analyzing whether achieving a certain goal can really help make a difference is what Gates loves most about his job: “I’m never happier than when I’m diving deep into the details of a problem.”



Of course, deciding what risks to take is never easy. “I also feel pressure to make every dollar and every day count,” he wrote. “I say no to a lot more opportunities than I say yes to.”



<a class="" href="https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__www.linkedin.com_in_tpopomaronis_&amp;amp;d=DwMFaQ&amp;amp;c=LO_8KzsOlAGvgA6hdGI4v02U_XLiES0sR51Zca0yIy4&amp;amp;r=fnb6sKq7SKN8iiAQiVc8NQSbL93Ztb9TeGwNUoj2-0Y&amp;amp;m=P_Ys4FkTrXS6d3lDujeEcG0RASS_Te__ciXliHG8uo0&amp;amp;s=rHzz9dkDjfkID7To9v-Lu83SKuT7yQyc4bQT7r89G-o&amp;amp;e=">Tom Popomaronis</a>&nbsp;is a commerce expert, cross-industry innovation leader and Vice President of Innovation at&nbsp;<a class="" href="https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__www.massivealliance.com&amp;amp;d=DwMFaQ&amp;amp;c=LO_8KzsOlAGvgA6hdGI4v02U_XLiES0sR51Zca0yIy4&amp;amp;r=fnb6sKq7SKN8iiAQiVc8NQSbL93Ztb9TeGwNUoj2-0Y&amp;amp;m=P_Ys4FkTrXS6d3lDujeEcG0RASS_Te__ciXliHG8uo0&amp;amp;s=MAZG4XFe5vj2XGn8I5ATujLEG6mysjDhAM2R5QnyNpQ&amp;amp;e=">Massive Alliance</a>. His work has been featured in Forbes, Fast Company and The Washington Post. In 2014, he was named one of the “40 Under 40” by the Baltimore Business Journal.



This article first appeared on CNBC <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/28/bill-gates-brilliant-method-for-taking-risks-is-like-how-warren-buffett-invests.html">https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/28/bill-gates-brilliant-method-for-taking-risks-is-like-how-warren-buffett-invests.html</a>&nbsp;and is republished with its permission.

Bill Gates has a brilliant method for making decisions—and he says it’s ‘similar to Warren Buffett’s’

HARARE (Reuters) &#8211; Zimbabwe has increased the average electricity tariff by 320% to let the state power utility ramp up production and improve supplies at a time of daily rolling power cuts, the national energy regulator said on Wednesday.



Power cuts lasting up to 18 hours have hit mines, industry and homes and, together with a devastating drought, have been cited by the treasury as among the main reasons why the economy is set to contract by up to 6% this year. 



However, the jump in power costs will further anger Zimbabwean citizens who have in the last week seen sharp rises in fuel and basic goods prices. Salaries have not kept pace, prompting citizens to blame President Emmerson Mnangagwa&#8217;s policies for the worst economic crisis in a decade.



The Zimbabwe Energy Regulatory Authority (ZERA) said it had approved an application by Zimbabwe Electricity Transmission and Distribution Company (ZETDC) to raise the tariff to 162.16 cents (10.61 U.S. cents) from 38.61 cents.



This was the second increase in three months, following one in August.



ZERA said the tariff hike was necessary after inflation soared &#8211; the IMF says it was about 300% in August &#8211; and due to a plummeting Zimbabwe dollar currency, which was re-introduced in June.



The new tariff would allow ZETDC to raise money to repair its generators, as well as pay for imports from South Africa&#8217;s Eskom and Mozambique which cost U.S. $19.5 million every month, the regulator said.



Hopes that Zimbabwe&#8217;s economy would quickly rebound under Mnangagwa, who took over after the late Robert Mugabe was deposed in a coup in November 2017, have faded fast as ordinary people grapple with soaring inflation which has eroded earnings and savings.



(Reporting by MacDonald Dzirutwe; Editing by Toby Chopra)

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Special Report

Op-Ed: Nigeria’s disinflation trend ends, as does land-based trade

#TheHashtag: Billionaire Mark Cuban’s lessons for entrepreneurs & SA vs. Japan at #RWC2019

Ghana’s construction industry is lively but it cannot afford to remain stagnant and uncompetitive

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Why Africa Oil Week is the place for major national roadshows in the oil & gas sphere

South Africa’s rand steady following signs of progress in U.S. – China trade talks

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Here are three reasons why Ghana’s cocoa farmers are trapped by the chocolate industry

Op-Ed: While Mozambique’s Frelimo is the favourite it will be no cakewalk

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Climate explained: how much of climate change is natural? How much is man-made?

Tanzania gold export earnings rise by 25% in year to August

Bill Gates has a brilliant method for making decisions—and he says it’s ‘similar to Warren Buffett’s’

Here’s why Zimbabwe has quadrupled its electricity prices

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