<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/7KPPN3EOZBPXPP6LCCKJLMUZYA-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-545850" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/7KPPN3EOZBPXPP6LCCKJLMUZYA-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/7KPPN3EOZBPXPP6LCCKJLMUZYA-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/7KPPN3EOZBPXPP6LCCKJLMUZYA-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/7KPPN3EOZBPXPP6LCCKJLMUZYA-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/7KPPN3EOZBPXPP6LCCKJLMUZYA-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/7KPPN3EOZBPXPP6LCCKJLMUZYA-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Botswana President Mokgweetsi Masisi speaks to Reuters at the One &amp; Only Hotel as the African Mining Indaba 2022 takes place, in Cape Town, South Africa, May 10, 2022. REUTERS/Shelley Christians</figcaption></figure>



JOHANNESBURG, Oct 24 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Botswana holds a national election on Oct. 30, with President Mokgweetsi Masisi favourite to win a second term against three challengers in a nation his Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) has governed since independence from Britain in 1966.



Voters elect National Assembly members, who then pick the president. Here are some facts about the candidates:



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-mokgweetsi-masisi">MOKGWEETSI MASISI</h2>



Masisi has been president since 2018 when he ascended to the post after serving as vice president under predecessor Ian Khama. He retained the presidency when his BDP party won the 2019 election.



The 63-year-old is a former schoolteacher who worked for U.N. children&#8217;s agency UNICEF before entering politics. During his first term he contended with high unemployment and lower growth due to declining global demand for diamonds, which Botswana&#8217;s economy relies on.



Masisi gained support last year for negotiating a new sales deal with De Beers that will give the country a bigger share of its diamond wealth, although opponents say he has not done enough to diversify the economy and create jobs.



He has fallen out with Khama, who accuses him of authoritarianism and is backing an opposition party.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-duma-boko">DUMA BOKO</h2>



Duma Boko, 54, a lawyer, is running for the third time as leader of the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC), an opposition coalition that came second in 2019 and remains the BDP&#8217;s biggest challenge.



In his party manifesto, Boko proposes increasing the government&#8217;s role in the economy to achieve social development and sustainable growth.



Boko&#8217;s party challenged the last election as fraudulent at the High Court, which dismissed the case.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-dumelang-saleshando">DUMELANG SALESHANDO</h2>



Dumelang Saleshando, 53, is leader of the Botswana Congress Party (BCP). The BCP was founded in 1998 and has won between 10%-20% of votes in past elections.



Saleshando took over from his father in 2010 as BCP party leader. The party describes itself as having social democratic principles and is campaigning with the motto &#8220;Save Botswana&#8221;.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-mephato-reatile">MEPHATO REATILE</h2>



Mephato Reatile is leader of the Botswana Patriotic Front (BPF), a party created in 2019 by members of the ruling party who followed Khama when he broke away from the BDP because of his feud with Masisi.



Khama, whose father Seretse Khama was Botswana&#8217;s founding president, has returned from three years in exile to support the BPF in the election.



The party won about 4% of votes in 2019.



(Reporting by Nellie Peyton; Additional reporting by Brian Benza; Editing by Olivia Kumwenda-Mtambo and Andrew Cawthorne)

Botswana President Masisi speaks to Reuters in Cape Town

Who is running for president in Botswana’s election?

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="551" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/W3TRJMXBPRNATIXO27SFJRC77U-820x551.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-422104" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/W3TRJMXBPRNATIXO27SFJRC77U-820x551.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/W3TRJMXBPRNATIXO27SFJRC77U-300x202.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/W3TRJMXBPRNATIXO27SFJRC77U-134x90.jpg 134w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/W3TRJMXBPRNATIXO27SFJRC77U-768x516.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/W3TRJMXBPRNATIXO27SFJRC77U-1536x1032.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/W3TRJMXBPRNATIXO27SFJRC77U.jpg 1920w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">A participant stands near a logo of IMF at the International Monetary Fund &#8211; World Bank Annual Meeting 2018 in Nusa Dua, Bali, Indonesia, October 12, 2018. REUTERS/Johannes P. Christo</figcaption></figure>



WASHINGTON, Oct 23 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Kenya has fulfilled all targets mandated by the International Monetary Fund in a review of its loan programme, the country&#8217;s central bank governor told Reuters on Wednesday, and expects to continue its engagement with the global lender after April.



Kenya agreed to a four-year loan with the IMF in 2021, and has also signed up for climate change lending, taking its total loan access with the Fund to $3.6 billion.



But deadly protests against planned tax rises forced the government to scupper its planned finance bill in June, leaving the heavily indebted government with a bigger budget deficit for this financial year, mounting unpaid bills, and a delay in disbursement of IMF funding.



&#8220;We&#8217;ve achieved all that was needed for the reviews to be completed,&#8221; Kamau Thugge, the head of the Central Bank of Kenya, told Reuters in an interview on the sidelines of the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Washington. &#8220;Obviously after the review there are still the targets for December.&#8221;



A staff level agreement on a combined 7th and 8th review of the country&#8217;s programme is scheduled to go the IMF&#8217;s executive board for a sign-off on Oct. 30, which will in turn trigger a payout of $611 million.



Asked whether the country was going to request another financing programme with the IMF after the current one runs out in April, Thugge said that would be the base case, though the size and duration were yet to be confirmed.



&#8220;It will depend on the balance of payments and needs, it will depend on the ambitiousness of the reforms that we agree,&#8221; he said. &#8220;But definitely, we will have our relationship going forward with the IMF.&#8221;



Speaking about the macroeconomic outlook, Thugge said inflation in Kenya continues to decline and the country had&nbsp;built up more foreign exchange reserves.



Inflation was set to decline below the 3.6% annual rate recorded in September, he said, adding that the country&#8217;s FX reserves currently stood at $8.6 billion, representing 4.3 months worth of imports. The central bank had said earlier in October that reserves stood at $8.25 billion.



More interest rate cuts also are on the cards,&nbsp;Thugge said, after policymakers slashed the benchmark lending rate by 75 basis points in October to 12.00%, following a 25-basis-point reduction in August &#8211; the first rate cut in approximately four years.



&#8220;It&#8217;s the desire of everybody for interest rates to come down,&#8221; Thugge&nbsp;said.



(Reporting by Karin Strohecker; Editing by Paul Simao)

W3TRJMXBPRNATIXO27SFJRC77U

Kenya fulfilled all targets in IMF review, central bank governor says

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="720" height="432" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/LRPYWTISXFKI3LGTJNVMUIQQ5E.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-545616" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/LRPYWTISXFKI3LGTJNVMUIQQ5E.jpg 720w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/LRPYWTISXFKI3LGTJNVMUIQQ5E-300x180.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/LRPYWTISXFKI3LGTJNVMUIQQ5E-150x90.jpg 150w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 720px) 100vw, 720px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">A drone view shows combines harvesting wheat in a field in the Rostov Region, Russia July 9, 2024. REUTERS/Sergey Pivovarov/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



KAZAN, Russia, Oct 23 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Leaders of the nations in the BRICS grouping, which accounts for 37% of global economic output, predicted its influence would grow as they met in Russia on Tuesday, outlining common projects ranging from a grain exchange to a cross-border payments system.



Russia&#8217;s President Vladimir Putin, who has sought support from BRICS leaders amid his standoff with the West over the war in Ukraine, said that BRICS&#8217; average economic growth in 2024/25 would be 3.8%, compared to global growth of 3.2-3.3%.



&#8220;The trend for the BRICS&#8217; leading role in the global economy will only strengthen,&#8221; Putin said, citing population growth, urbanization, capital accumulation, and productivity growth as key factors.



The joint communique of the summit, called the Kazan Declaration, attacked unilateral sanctions imposed on some of the group&#8217;s members, including Russia and Iran, saying that they harm the poorest people in targeted states.



&#8220;Therefore, we call for their elimination,&#8221; the Kazan Declaration said.



Russia, the world&#8217;s biggest wheat exporter, proposed the creation of a BRICS grain exchange which could later be expanded to trade other major commodities such as oil, gas and metals. The Kazan Declaration welcomed the initiative.



&#8220;BRICS countries are among the world&#8217;s largest producers of grains, legumes, and oilseeds. In this regard, we proposed opening a BRICS grain exchange,&#8221; Putin told the leaders.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-cross-border-payments">CROSS BORDER PAYMENTS</h2>



He added that the exchange &#8220;will contribute to the formation of fair and predictable price indicators for products and raw materials, considering its special role in ensuring food security&#8221;.



&#8220;The implementation of this initiative will help protect national markets from negative external interference, speculation, and attempts to create an artificial food shortage,&#8221; Putin said.



Other leaders backed the creation of a common cross-border payments system, which would help BRICS countries trade with each other, bypassing the dollar-dominated global financial system.



Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who took part in the BRICS summit via video conference after a head injury over the weekend, said that it is time for the BRICS nations to create alternative payment methods.



He added that the group&#8217;s New Development Bank (NDB) was designed as an alternative to what he called failing Bretton Woods institutions such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF).



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-local-currencies">LOCAL CURRENCIES</h2>



India&#8217;s Prime Minister Narendra Modi said that he welcomed the steps for financial integration of BRICS countries while China&#8217;s President Xi Jinping urged BRICS countries to deepen financial and economic cooperation.



The Kazan Declaration called for a feasibility study on the other Russian initiatives, a BRICS Clear depositary and securities trade settlement system and a common reinsurance company.



In his speech, Putin also called for the creation of a BRICS investment platform, which will facilitate mutual investment between BRICS countries and could also be used for investment in other countries in the Global South.



Contrary to earlier statements from senior Russian officials on the need to find an alternative to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Kazan Declaration enhanced the role of the IMF, stressing the need for further reforms.



The declaration did not mention global dollar dominance, an issue that was often raised during the Russian presidency, nor a BRICS single currency and the use of cryptocurrencies, mentioned by Russia as a way to protect trade from Western sanctions.



&#8220;We welcome the use of local currencies in financial transactions between BRICS countries and their trading partners,&#8221; the Kazan Declaration said.



(Reporting by Vladimir Soldatkin in Kazan, Gleb Bryanski in Moscow; Editing by Alison Williams, Emelia Sithole-Matarise, Philippa Fletcher, Alexandra Hudson)

LRPYWTISXFKI3LGTJNVMUIQQ5E

BRICS leaders tout joint finance, trade projects at Russian summit

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="550" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/UBAOTNJREJN2TDBAOH5F5I53RA-820x550.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-545534" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/UBAOTNJREJN2TDBAOH5F5I53RA-820x550.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/UBAOTNJREJN2TDBAOH5F5I53RA-300x201.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/UBAOTNJREJN2TDBAOH5F5I53RA-134x90.jpg 134w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/UBAOTNJREJN2TDBAOH5F5I53RA-768x515.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/UBAOTNJREJN2TDBAOH5F5I53RA-1536x1031.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/UBAOTNJREJN2TDBAOH5F5I53RA-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">People charge towards the police, during a nationwide strike called by Mozambique presidential candidate Venancio Mondlane to protest the provisional results of an October 9 election, in Maputo, Mozambique, October 21, 2024. REUTERS/Siphiwe Sibeko</figcaption></figure>



NAIROBI, Oct 23 (Reuters) &#8211; Mozambique&#8217;s dollar bond fell for a third day on Wednesday, Tradeweb data showed, as unrest simmered over disputed election results.



The country&#8217;s sole eurobond, which matures in 2031, shed 0.58 cents to bid at 84.89 on the dollar, taking its losses since Friday to above two cents. 



The full results of Mozambique&#8217;s Oct. 9 national election are expected this week, but opposition candidates say the poll was rigged.



On Saturday, gunmen killed an opposition lawyer and a party official, and police this week fired teargas and bullets at protesters who had gathered where the two were killed.



(Reporting by Duncan Miriri and Shashwat Chauhan, editing by Libby George)

Nationwide strike in Mozambique

Mozambique’s dollar bond falls as unrest over disputed election simmers

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/5TLM4VGHGFLZVJKGLDZIGS2JC4-scaled-1-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-545436" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/5TLM4VGHGFLZVJKGLDZIGS2JC4-scaled-1-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/5TLM4VGHGFLZVJKGLDZIGS2JC4-scaled-1-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/5TLM4VGHGFLZVJKGLDZIGS2JC4-scaled-1-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/5TLM4VGHGFLZVJKGLDZIGS2JC4-scaled-1-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/5TLM4VGHGFLZVJKGLDZIGS2JC4-scaled-1-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/5TLM4VGHGFLZVJKGLDZIGS2JC4-scaled-1.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: A street vendor balances a box on her head as she makes a sale at Markets of Warwick in the Durban CBD, Durban, South Africa May 31, 2024. REUTERS/Alaister Russell/File photo</figcaption></figure>



JOHANNESBURG, Oct 23 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;South Africa&#8217;s inflation dropped sharply in September, hitting its lowest level in more than three years and bolstering expectations for another interest rate cut by the central bank next month.



Annual consumer price inflation slowed to 3.8% from 4.4% in August, Statistics South Africa data showed.



Economists polled by Reuters had forecast inflation would&nbsp;drop to&nbsp;3.9%, well below 4.5% &#8211; the mid-point of the South African Reserve Bank&#8217;s 3%-6% target range.



The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.1% month-on-month in September, the same as a month before.



&#8220;Inflation is well under control in South Africa, this is really the start of a period of about 6 months in which the headline CPI should be below 4%,&#8221; said independent economist Elize Kruger.



The central bank struck a measured tone at its September meeting when it trimmed its main interest rate by 25 basis points to 8%, saying there were still risks on the horizon.



Analysts expect the bank to continue easing policy in quarter point increments, taking the repo rate to 7% by the middle of next year.



&#8220;Larger 50 bps moves are unlikely, in our view,&#8221; Standard Chartered&#8217;s Razia Khan said in a research note. &#8220;We think the SARB will want to proceed cautiously, monitoring global risks and any consumption boost from South Africa&#8217;s recent Two Pot Pension Reforms, which allow earlier pension withdrawals,&#8221; she said.



(Reporting by Bhargav Acharya, Kopano Gumbi and Tannur Anders; Editing by Alexander Winning and Tomasz Janowski)

5TLM4VGHGFLZVJKGLDZIGS2JC4-scaled

South African inflation drops sharply, paving way for more rate cuts

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="615" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/3TYBNL5NNRKODOQ2WWXYLQHUFE-820x615.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-545417" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/3TYBNL5NNRKODOQ2WWXYLQHUFE-820x615.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/3TYBNL5NNRKODOQ2WWXYLQHUFE-300x225.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/3TYBNL5NNRKODOQ2WWXYLQHUFE-120x90.jpg 120w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/3TYBNL5NNRKODOQ2WWXYLQHUFE-768x576.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/3TYBNL5NNRKODOQ2WWXYLQHUFE-1536x1152.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/3TYBNL5NNRKODOQ2WWXYLQHUFE-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: Residents walk in a flooded area during rescue operations in Maiduguri, northern Borno state, Nigeria September 12, 2024. REUTERS/Ahmed Kingimi/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



Oct 23 (Reuters) &#8211; Devastating rains that triggered deadly floods in Cameroon, Chad, Niger, Nigeria and Sudan in recent months were worsened by human-caused climate change, a team of international scientists said on Wednesday.



Global warming made the seasonal downpours this year about 5-20% more intense across the Niger and Lake Chad basins, said World Weather Attribution (WWA), a group of scientists studying the link between climate change and extreme weather.



It also said such intense rainfall could occur annually if warming continues.



&#8220;Spells of heavy summer rainfall have become the new normal in Sudan, Nigeria, Niger, Cameroon and Chad,&#8221; said Izidine Pinto, Researcher at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, in a WWA statement.



This year&#8217;s floods killed around 1,500 people and displaced over 1 million more in West and Central Africa, according to the U.N. aid agency OCHA. The rainfall also overwhelmed dams in Nigeria and Sudan.



If global warming reaches 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit), which could happen as early as the 2050s, such downpours are expected to occur nearly every year in the affected regions, WWA said, calling for more investment in early warning systems and dam upgrades.



&#8220;Africa has contributed a tiny amount of carbon emissions globally, but is being hit the hardest by extreme weather,&#8221; said Joyce Kimutai, researcher at the Centre for Environmental Policy at Imperial College in London.



She said the onus was on this year&#8217;s COP29 climate talks in November to ensure rich nations contribute &#8220;meaningful finance&#8221; to help.



(Reporting by Alessandra Prentice; editing by Barbara Lewis)

FILE PHOTO: Residents walk in a flooded area during rescue operations in Maiduguri

Climate change worsened rains in flood-hit African regions, scientists say

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="429" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/EOMWPC6NZ5IR5K2P3BFBOOSP4E-820x429.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-545386" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/EOMWPC6NZ5IR5K2P3BFBOOSP4E-820x429.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/EOMWPC6NZ5IR5K2P3BFBOOSP4E-300x157.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/EOMWPC6NZ5IR5K2P3BFBOOSP4E-160x84.jpg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/EOMWPC6NZ5IR5K2P3BFBOOSP4E-768x402.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/EOMWPC6NZ5IR5K2P3BFBOOSP4E-1536x804.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/EOMWPC6NZ5IR5K2P3BFBOOSP4E.jpg 1920w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Sudanese women from community kitchens, run by local volunteers, prepare meals for people who are affected by conflict and extreme hunger and are out of reach of international aid efforts, in Omdurman, Sudan, May 13, 2024. REUTERS/Mazin Alrasheed/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



LONDON, Oct 23 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Nearly half of Africa&#8217;s citizens live in a country where governance has worsened over the past decade, as deteriorating security erodes progress, according to a new report.



The annual Ibrahim Index of African Governance report found that despite positive progress in 33 countries, overall governance was worse in 2023 in 21 countries, accounting for just under half of Africa&#8217;s population, compared with 2014.



For several countries, including densely populated Nigeria and Uganda, the deterioration in overall governance had worsened over the second part of the decade, according to the report released by Sudanese-British billionaire businessman Mo Ibrahim&#8217;s foundation.



&#8220;We can see really a huge arc of instability and conflicts and this deterioration, and security and safety of our people, is the biggest driver of deterioration and governance&#8230;putting everything down in general,&#8221; Ibrahim told Reuters in an interview.



Ibrahim pointed to the coups in West Africa and war in Sudan, but said poor governance also fostered violence and instability.



&#8220;If there is deterioration on governance, if there is corruption, if there is marginalization&#8230;people are going to pick up arms,&#8221; he said.



The report found that infrastructure &#8211; from mobile phone access to energy &#8211; and women&#8217;s equality, were better in 2023 for roughly 95% of Africans.



Health, education and business environment metrics had also improved continent-wide.



But the report found that public perceptions on progress were grim, even when the corresponding governance dimensions showed progress; all public perception indicators, apart from those tracking women&#8217;s leadership, declined.



The worst drops were in perceptions of economic opportunities and of safety and security.



The foundation said this could be due to higher expectations in countries that were making progress, and also a tendency to focus on what is not working.



But Ibrahim said it was a serious problem.



&#8220;If public dissatisfaction is high, that obviously can lead to unrest, it can lead to increased migration, conflicts,&#8221; he said.



(Reporting By Libby George; Editing by Sharon Singleton)

EOMWPC6NZ5IR5K2P3BFBOOSP4E

African progress backslides as coups and war persist

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/GettyImages-1243645267-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-545121" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/GettyImages-1243645267-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/GettyImages-1243645267-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/GettyImages-1243645267-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/GettyImages-1243645267-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/GettyImages-1243645267-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/GettyImages-1243645267-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">The President of the Confederation of African Football (CAF) Patrice Motsepe, Host a Press Conference, in Algiers, Algeria, October 01, 2022. (Photo by APP/NurPhoto via Getty Images)</figcaption></figure>



ADDIS ABABA, Oct 22 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;African football paid $50-million in an out of court settlement to former marketing company Lagardere Sports after abruptly cancelling their long-term agreement, the Confederation of African Football&#8217;s congress was told on Tuesday.



The French company had sued for compensation after their 10-year, $1-billion agreement was abruptly cancelled in 2019.



Lagardere Sports held the marketing, sponsorship and television rights to all CAF competitions for two decades, but CAF said it had to cancel the deal after two court rulings found that the agreement was made without proper tender.



The company, now known as Lagardere Unlimited, sued for compensation before accepting a settlement, with CAF paying in two equal tranches, the last of which was paid at the end of last year, CAF&#8217;s finance committee vice chairman Andrew Kamanga said.



CAF president Patrice Motsepe told congress the organisation had made a $72-million profit from this year&#8217;s Africa Cup of Nations finals in the Ivory Coast, significantly increased from a $4-million profit for the 2021 finals in Cameroon.



CAF said it projected a revenue of almost $150 million for the 2024-2025 financial year, with expenses of $138.2 million.



Some 30% of the budget would be spent on development programmes and contributions to CAF’s 54-member associations.



A proposal was approved to give each association president an annual salary of $50,000 from the $400,000 annual contribution.



Motsepe, expected to stand for re-election next year, said CAF wanted to increase African football&#8217;s revenue to $1-billion over the next eight years. &#8220;We are having a lot of discussions with potential sponsors,&#8221; he told the congress in the Ethiopian capital.



He said CAF wanted to give $1-million annually to each member association from 2026.



Motsepe also said CAF were reviewing rules on the treatment of visiting teams in the wake of Nigeria&#8217;s national team being held at a Libyan airport for a half day before last week&#8217;s scheduled Africa Cup of Nations qualifier.



Nigeria refused to play the game after saying they had been held hostage by Libyan authorities who diverted their charter plane to an unused airfield and then left them waiting.



&#8220;National teams must be treated with respect. If there are violations, we&#8217;ll take action,&#8221; said Motsepe.



(Writing by Mark Gleeson in Cape Town; Editing by Christian Radnedge)

President Of The (CAF) Patrice Motsepe In Algeria

African football paid out $50-million settlement over marketing rights

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="461" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108049870-17292742572024-10-18t103613z_1061388036_rc2xmaa99x9x_rtrmadp_0_russia-brics-putin-growth-820x461.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-545076" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108049870-17292742572024-10-18t103613z_1061388036_rc2xmaa99x9x_rtrmadp_0_russia-brics-putin-growth-820x461.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108049870-17292742572024-10-18t103613z_1061388036_rc2xmaa99x9x_rtrmadp_0_russia-brics-putin-growth-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108049870-17292742572024-10-18t103613z_1061388036_rc2xmaa99x9x_rtrmadp_0_russia-brics-putin-growth-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108049870-17292742572024-10-18t103613z_1061388036_rc2xmaa99x9x_rtrmadp_0_russia-brics-putin-growth-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108049870-17292742572024-10-18t103613z_1061388036_rc2xmaa99x9x_rtrmadp_0_russia-brics-putin-growth-1536x864.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108049870-17292742572024-10-18t103613z_1061388036_rc2xmaa99x9x_rtrmadp_0_russia-brics-putin-growth.jpeg 1858w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Russian President Vladimir Putin attends the BRICS Business Forum in Moscow, Russia October 18, 2024.  Alexander Zemlianichenko | Via Reuters</figcaption></figure>



Russia is rolling out the red carpet to its geopolitical allies as it hosts the latest BRICS summit on Tuesday, pushing its agenda to create a “new world order” that challenges the West.



The group was initially comprised of Brazil, Russia, India and China before South Africa joined in 2010, giving the organization of rapidly economically-developing nations its current name. It has since morphed into a geopolitical forum for the world’s most powerful nations outside of the West.



The BRICS now have additional clout after Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates joined the group in January, with membership to the bloc becoming an attractive prospect for countries looking to boost trade, investment and economic development.



Russia has been trying to woo what’s collectively known as the “Global South” — or economically-developing countries in Asia, Africa, the Middle East and Latin America — and contrast to the “Global North” of industrialized nations, traditionally led by the U.S.



Russian President Vladimir Putin frequently comments on his ambition to establish what he calls a “new world order” to rival and usurp the geopolitical and economic pre-eminence enjoyed by the U.S.-led West.



Russia, holder of the rotating BRICS presidency and economically isolated and heavily sanctioned by the West, can also turn to this year’s summit to demonstrate that it still commands respect on the global stage and has powerful allies willing to turn a blind eye to its ongoing war in Ukraine.



Putin has described the beefed-up BRICS group as a “strong indication of the growing authority of the association and its role in international affairs” and signaled on Friday that he intends for the so-called “BRICS +” format to challenge the West on both a geopolitical and economic front.



“The countries in our association are essentially the drivers of global economic growth. In the foreseeable future, BRICS will generate the main increase in global GDP,” Putin told officials and businessmen&nbsp;last Friday&nbsp;at&nbsp;the&nbsp;BRICS business forum in Moscow,&nbsp;which precedes the group’s summit,&nbsp;in comments translated by Reuters.



“The economic growth of BRICS members will increasingly depend less on external influence or interference. This is essentially economic sovereignty,” Putin added.



Earlier in October, Putin said Moscow was open to using the summit for discussions with its allies on the “the parameters of interaction in the emerging multipolar world, and is open to discussing the issues of building a new world order with all our friends, partners and like-minded people,” he said, according to Russian state-owned news agency Tass.



Putin added that “it is in this spirit that we are preparing the BRICS and Outreach/BRICS Plus summit,” referring to the last day of the three-day summit when officials from almost 40 Asian, African, Middle Eastern and Latin American countries are attending as part of the group’s bid to expand ties with the “Global South.”



The expansion of the BRICS coalition is both significant and performative, one security analyst told CNBC.



“It is indicative of a collective movement away from the West, a demonstration of a fundamental shift within the world order that is seeking to challenge Western economic hegemony,” Callum Fraser,&nbsp;a research fellow in Russian and Eurasian security at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) think tank, told CNBC Monday.



Fraser added that it was “still unclear to what degree BRICS+ will be able to challenge the Western-dominated G7, or even to what degree they are able to align their visions of the international system.”



“Currently, the main glue that holds them together is the aspiration to achieve the same quality of life as in the West that they feel unable to achieve through cooperation with the West. Ultimately, BRICS+ is only anti-West in that it operates as an alternative institution. This means that it still remains to be seen what BRICS+ will provide for its member states, but increased cooperation among its members is extremely likely,” he said.



Russia’s chairing of the summit would be “utilized to maximum effect to demonstrate Russia’s strong position within this emerging order,” Fraser added.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-global-leaders-attending"><a></a>Global leaders attending</h2>



The 16th BRICS summit is taking place under the theme of “strengthening multilateralism for&nbsp;just global development and&nbsp;security,” with the Kremlin stating that BRICS leaders will exchange views on&nbsp;“pressing issues on&nbsp;the&nbsp;global and&nbsp;regional agenda,” as well as on “the&nbsp;three main pillars of&nbsp;cooperation identified by&nbsp;the&nbsp;Russian chairmanship: politics and&nbsp;security, the&nbsp;economy and&nbsp;finance, and&nbsp;cultural and&nbsp;humanitarian ties.”



The Kremlin added that the possible expansion of the BRICS group through the establishment of a new category of “partner states” would also be discussed.



It’s unclear whether the elephant in the room — Russia’s ongoing war with Ukraine — will be acknowledged at the summit. Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov told the Izvestia newspaper that the conflict in Ukraine was not on the agenda, but he insisted that participants could “raise this issue at their discretion,” according to a Google translation.



The Kremlin appears eager to avoid mention of what it calls its “special military operation” in Ukraine, stating that the BRICS+ discussions would concern&nbsp;“pressing international issues, with a&nbsp;particular focus on&nbsp;the&nbsp;escalating situation in&nbsp;the&nbsp;Middle East and&nbsp;interactions between the&nbsp;BRICS countries and&nbsp;the&nbsp;Global South in&nbsp;the&nbsp;interests of&nbsp;sustainable development.”



Putin is set to hold meetings with various leaders in attendance, including India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi, China’s President Xi Jinping, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres.



It’s also expected that Putin and his Iranian counterpart Masoud Pezeshkian&nbsp;could sign a “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership’ agreement” at the summit that could signal their commitment to deepening military and defense cooperation. following several years of exchanging military and technical support amid the war in Ukraine.



Meetings with South African President Cyril Ramaphosa and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi are also slated to take place this week, according to comments from Yury Ushakov, Putin’s foreign policy aide. Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva cancelled his trip to Russia after injuring his head in an accident at his home last weekend.



Saudi Arabia, which has been invited to join the BRICS&nbsp;group but has not yet formally acceeded, is also participating in the latest summit in the southwestern Russian city of Kazan. Argentina decided in 2023 not to join the group, citing a change in foreign policy.

108049870-17292742572024-10-18t103613z_1061388036_rc2xmaa99x9x_rtrmadp_0_russia-brics-putin-growth

Russia pushes ‘new world order’ agenda as it hosts beefed-up BRICS summit

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="461" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108039375-1727312351704-gettyimages-1810856649-32-820x461.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-545014" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108039375-1727312351704-gettyimages-1810856649-32-820x461.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108039375-1727312351704-gettyimages-1810856649-32-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108039375-1727312351704-gettyimages-1810856649-32-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108039375-1727312351704-gettyimages-1810856649-32-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108039375-1727312351704-gettyimages-1810856649-32-1536x864.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108039375-1727312351704-gettyimages-1810856649-32.jpeg 1858w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Close up stack of gold bars, financial wealth concepts and business Vector Photo Gallery | Istock | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



Gold is in a “new bullish phase” after prices notched another record high, said asset management firm Sprott Asset Management, echoing other analysts who have predicted that the bullion will continue to scale new heights.



“Gold has entered a new bullish phase, driven by factors like central bank buying, rising U.S. debt and a potential peak in the U.S. dollar,” Paul Wong, market strategist at Sprott Asset Management, wrote in a note, after the price of the yellow metal advanced to a fresh record of $2,700 per ounce on Monday.&nbsp;



Spot gold is currently trading at $2,729.14 per ounce, while gold futures are at $2,741.20.



“Rising U.S. debt-to-GDP ratios have historically led to higher gold prices due to concerns over the sustainability of debt, currency devaluation and debt monetization,” Wong continued.



The U.S. Congressional Budget Office expects public debt to rise from 98% of GDP in 2023 to 181% of GDP in 2053, the highest level in the country’s history.



As debt increases, governments might resort to printing money to address deficits, which can devalue the currency, Wong explained. This erosion of trust in fiat currency enhances gold’s appeal as a reliable store of value.



Persistent inflationary pressures and difficult macroeconomic conditions plaguing global economies suggest that central banks and investors are more likely to allocate to precious metals, he added.



According to World Gold Council data, the net purchases of gold by central banks in the first half of 2024 rose to 483 tonnes, 5% above the previous record set in the first half of 2023.



A growing chorus of analysts have predicted that the price of gold will continue to rise to $3,000, with some expecting the commodity to cross $2,800 in the next three months.



Gold prices “look better now” than ever before, said Michael Widmer, commodities strategist at Bank of America. “I think we’re closer to $3,000 pounds.”



Widmer cited elevated government debt levels and brewing geopolitical uncertainty as reasons for the his bullish outlook.



Pledges from Israel and its adversaries, Hamas and Hezbollah, to continue fighting in Gaza and Lebanon have diminished hopes of a resolution of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.



Rising geopolitical tensions usually lead investors to flock to safe-haven assets such as gold, motivated by a desire to buffer against risks and instability in global markets.



Citi analysts have also held on to their view that gold will hit $3,000 in the next six to nine months. If oil prices spike due to a near-term escalation in the Middle East, they added, gold should see a lift.



Despite a drop in Chinese retail demand over the last three months, gold prices have still performed “extremely well,” which reflects the willingness of buyers to pay higher prices, according to Citi.



Meanwhile, Commonwealth Bank of Australia’s Vivek Dhar said in a note on Monday that he sees gold averaging $3,000 in the fourth quarter of next year as a result of “persistent weakness in the U.S. dollar.”



Still, Dhar said he expects gold to average $2,800 this quarter. Citi recently upgraded their view, also predicting that gold will hit $2,800 in three months.

108039375-1727312351704-gettyimages-1810856649-32

‘New bullish phase’? As gold hits another high, analysts say more records are in sight

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="570" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/P6ORFY5TKVJHVLDLKUU7XJIJNQ-820x570.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-544813" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/P6ORFY5TKVJHVLDLKUU7XJIJNQ-820x570.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/P6ORFY5TKVJHVLDLKUU7XJIJNQ-300x209.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/P6ORFY5TKVJHVLDLKUU7XJIJNQ-129x90.jpg 129w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/P6ORFY5TKVJHVLDLKUU7XJIJNQ-768x534.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/P6ORFY5TKVJHVLDLKUU7XJIJNQ-1536x1068.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/P6ORFY5TKVJHVLDLKUU7XJIJNQ-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: South Africa&#8217;s Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana speaks during his 2024 budget speech in Cape Town, South Africa, February 21, 2024. REUTERS/Esa Alexander/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



JOHANNESBURG, Oct 21 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;South Africa&#8217;s mid-term budget review later this month is expected to show healthier public finances, but economists say it might be too early to loosen the purse strings.



Finance minister Enoch Godongwana is expected to present his first medium-term budget policy statement under South Africa&#8217;s new unity government on Oct. 30, setting out spending plans for the next three years.



Economists see potential for an improved budget outlook due to anticipated reductions in government expenditure and lower interest payments on debt, buoyed by currency appreciation.



Sentiment has been boosted by the government&#8217;s early success in fostering political stability as well as the end of crippling power cuts.



South Africa&#8217;s budget deficit for the 2024/25 fiscal year stood at 3.3% of GDP as of August, according to National Treasury data, lower than the same period last year. In February, the treasury forecast a deficit of 4.5% of GDP for the year.



Andrew Matheny, Managing Director of Economics Research at Goldman Sachs, said that the treasury was likely to meet that target.



&#8220;We don&#8217;t see much of a risk of overspending and exceeding the spending plans that they laid out on the revenue side,&#8221; said Matheny.



Although revenue collection has undershot the target so far, a decrease in expenditure coupled with the transfer of the first tranche of funds from the gold and foreign exchange account has reduced borrowing requirements, economists said.



Despite the wiggle room, there is no expectation the treasury will introduce any new spending initiatives outside of providing funding guidance on the government&#8217;s infrastructure investment programme and any above-inflation public sector wage increases for 2025.



President Cyril Ramaphosa pledged in July to revive the economy by turning the country &#8220;into a construction site&#8221;.



&#8220;The focus will probably be on job creation, things like the infrastructure development program, really pushing money into things that can get the economy going,&#8221; said Maarten Ackerman, chief economist at local financial firm, Citadel,



South Africa&#8217;s GDP growth is seen at 1.1% this year, according to the central bank. The bank believes growth could accelerate to 3.5% in the medium term with appropriate reforms.



(Reporting by Kopano Gumbi; Editing by Olivia Kumwenda-Mtambo and Christina Fincher)

South Africa’s Finance Minister Godongwana presents 2024 budget in Cape Town

South Africa’s budget to show healthier finances but discipline still needed, economists say

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="502" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/QZUAQ2INZBKLHG5LACEZIIRYGE-820x502.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-544761" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/QZUAQ2INZBKLHG5LACEZIIRYGE-820x502.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/QZUAQ2INZBKLHG5LACEZIIRYGE-300x184.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/QZUAQ2INZBKLHG5LACEZIIRYGE-147x90.jpg 147w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/QZUAQ2INZBKLHG5LACEZIIRYGE-768x470.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/QZUAQ2INZBKLHG5LACEZIIRYGE-1536x940.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/QZUAQ2INZBKLHG5LACEZIIRYGE-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILED PHOTO: A 3D printed natural gas pipeline is placed in front of displayed ExxonMobil logo in this illustration taken February 8, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration</figcaption></figure>



ABUJA, Oct 21 (Reuters) &#8211; Nigeria has approved the sale of Exxon Mobil Corp&#8217;s onshore assets to Seplat Energy, the chief executive officer of the country&#8217;s upstream regulator said on Monday, more than two years after the $1.28 billion deal was first agreed.



The sale had been under scrutiny as it awaited regulatory approval since it was first announced in February 2022.



President Bola Tinubu said on Oct. 1 the deal would receive ministerial approval in a matter of days after getting clearance from the regulator.



Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) CEO Gbenga Komolafe said on Monday at an event in the capital Abuja that the ministerial approval had been granted.



Under the deal, Seplat will own 40% of four oil mining leases and associated infrastructure, including the Qua Iboe export terminal, and 51% of Bonny River natural gas liquids recovery plant previously owned by Mobil Producing Nigeria Unlimited, Exxon&#8217;s local unit.



Oil majors operating in Nigeria &#8211; Africa&#8217;s largest oil exporter &#8211; have been retreating from onshore operations hampered by theft and sabotage, opting to focus future investments on newer and more lucrative deep offshore fields.



In July the NUPRC approved the sale of onshore assets by Eni&#8217;s local unit to Oando and another from Equinor to new entrant Project Odinmim.



The regulator offered in May faster approvals for pending asset sales by oil majors if they took responsibility for oil spills and compensated impacted communities rather than wait for authorities to apportion liability.



(Reporting by Isaac Anyaogu, Ope Adetayo and Camillus Eboh; Writing by Isaac Anyaogu and Bhargav Acharya;Editing by Alexander Winning and Emelia Sithole-Matarise)

Illustration shows ExxonMobil logo and natural gas pipeline

Nigeria approves Exxon-Seplat deal after more than two years

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="461" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108048712-1729110726420-gettyimages-2178767848-dsc_1378_dxqewiuu-820x461.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-544730" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108048712-1729110726420-gettyimages-2178767848-dsc_1378_dxqewiuu-820x461.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108048712-1729110726420-gettyimages-2178767848-dsc_1378_dxqewiuu-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108048712-1729110726420-gettyimages-2178767848-dsc_1378_dxqewiuu-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108048712-1729110726420-gettyimages-2178767848-dsc_1378_dxqewiuu-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108048712-1729110726420-gettyimages-2178767848-dsc_1378_dxqewiuu-1536x864.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108048712-1729110726420-gettyimages-2178767848-dsc_1378_dxqewiuu.jpeg 1858w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">A family shops for Halloween candy at a Walmart Supercenter on October 16, 2024 in Austin, Texas.  Brandon Bell | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



Just because the Federal Reserve is nearing its inflation goal doesn’t mean the problem is solved, as the high price of goods and services across the U.S. economy continues to pose a burden for individuals, businesses and policymakers.



Recent price reports on goods and services, despite being a bit stronger than expected, indicate that the rate of inflation over the past year is getting close to the central bank’s 2% target.



In fact, Goldman Sachs recently estimated that when the Bureau of Economic Analysis later this month releases its figures on the Fed’s favorite price measure, the inflation rate could be close enough to get rounded down to that 2% level.



But inflation is a mosaic. It can’t be captured fully by any individual yardstick, and by many metrics is still well above where most Americans, and in fact some Fed officials, feel comfortable.



Sounding like many of her colleagues, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly last Tuesday touted the easing of inflation pressures but noted that the Fed isn’t declaring victory nor is it eager to rest on its laurels.



“Continued progress towards our goals is not guaranteed, so we must stay vigilant and intentional,” she told a group gathered at the New York University Stern School of Business.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-inflation-is-not-dead">Inflation is not dead</h2>



Daly began her talk with an anecdote of a recent encounter she had while walking near her home. A young man pushing a stroller and walking a dog called out, “President Daly, are you declaring victory?” She assured him she was not waving any banners when it comes to inflation.



But the conversation encapsulated a dilemma for the Fed: If inflation is on the run, why are interest rates still so high? Conversely, if inflation still hasn’t been whipped — those who were around in the 1970s might remember the “Whip Inflation Now” buttons — why is the Fed cutting at all?



In Daly’s eyes, the Fed’s half percentage point reduction in September was an attempt at “right-sizing” policy, to bring the current rate climate in line with inflation that is well off its peak of mid-2022 at the same time as there are signs the labor market is softening.



As evidenced by the young man’s question, convincing people that inflation is easing is a tough sell.



When it comes to inflation, there are two things to remember: the rate of inflation, which is the 12-month view that garners headlines, and the cumulative effects that a more than three-year run has had on the economy.



Looking at the 12-month rate provides only a limited view.



The annual rate of CPI inflation was 2.4% in September, a vast improvement over the 9.1% top in June 2022. The CPI measure draws the bulk of public focus but is secondary to the Fed, which prefers the personal consumption expenditures price index from the Commerce Department. Taking the inputs from the CPI that feed into the PCE measure led Goldman to its conclusion that the latter measure is just a few hundredths of a percentage point from 2%.



Inflation first passed the Fed’s 2% objective in March 2021 and for months was dismissed by Fed officials as the “transitory” product of pandemic-specific factors that would soon recede. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, in his annual policy speech at the Jackson Hole, Wyoming summit this August, joked about “the good ship Transitory” and all the passengers it had in the early days of the inflation run-up.



Obviously, inflation wasn’t transitory, and the all-items CPI reading is up 18.8% since then. Food inflation has surged 22%. Eggs are up 87%, auto insurance has soared almost 47% and gasoline, though on a downward trajectory these days, is still up 16% from then. And, of course, there’s housing: The median home price has jumped 16% since Q1 of 2021 and 30% from the beginning of the pandemic-fueled buying frenzy.



Finally, while some broad measures of inflation such as CPI and PCE are pulling back, others show stubbornness.



For instance, the Atlanta Fed’s measure of “sticky price” inflation — think rent, insurance and medical care — was still running at a 4% rate in September even as “flexible CPI,” which includes food, energy and vehicle costs, was in outright deflation at -2.1%. That means that prices that don’t change a lot are still high, while those that do, in this particular case gasoline, are falling but could turn the other way.



The sticky-price measure also brings up another important point: “Core” inflation that excludes food and energy prices, which fluctuate more than other items, was still at 3.3% in September by the CPI measure and 2.7% in August as gauged by the PCE index.



While Fed officials lately have been talking more about headline numbers, historically they’ve considered core a better measure of long-run trends. That makes the inflation data even more troublesome.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a></a>Borrowing to pay higher prices</h2>



Prior to the 2021 spike, American consumers had grown accustomed to negligible inflation. Even so, during the current run, they have continued to spend, spend and spend some more despite all the grumbling about the soaring cost of living.



In the second quarter, consumer spending equaled close to $20 trillion at an annualized pace, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In September, retail sales increased a larger-than-expected 0.4%, with the group that feeds directly into gross domestic product calculations up 0.7%. However, year-over-year spending increased just 1.7%, below the 2.4% CPI inflation rate.



A growing portion of spending has come through IOUs of various forms.



Household debt totaled $20.2 trillion through the second quarter of this year, up $3.25 trillion, or 19%, from when inflation started spiking in Q1 of 2021, according to Federal Reserve data. In the second quarter of this year, household debt rose 3.2%, the biggest increase since Q3 of 2022.



So far, the rising debt hasn’t proved to be a major problem, but it’s getting there.



The current debt delinquency rate is at 2.74%, the highest in nearly 12 years though still slightly below the long-term average of around 3% in Fed data going back to 1987. However, a recent New York Fed survey showed that the perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months jumped to 14.2% of respondents, the highest level since April 2020.



And it’s not just consumers who are racking up credit.



Small business credit card usage has continued to tick higher, up more than 20% compared to pre-pandemic levels and nearing the highest in a decade, according to Bank of America. The bank’s economists expect the pressure could ease as the Fed lowers interest rates, though the magnitude of the cuts could come into question if inflation proves sticky.



In fact, the one bright spot of the small business story relative to credit balances is that they actually haven’t kept up with the 23% inflation increase going back to 2019, according to BofA.



Broadly speaking, though, sentiment is downbeat at small firms. The September survey from the National Federation of Independent Business showed that 23% of respondents still see inflation as their main problem, again the top issue for members.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a></a>The Fed’s choice</h2>



Amid the swirling currents of the good news/bad news inflation picture, the Fed has an important decision to make at its Nov. 6-7 policy meeting.



Since policymakers in September voted to lower their baseline interest rate by half a percentage point, or 50 basis points, markets have acted curiously. Rather than price in lower rates ahead, they’ve begun to indicate a higher trajectory.



The rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage, for instance, has climbed about 40 basis points since the cut, according to Freddie Mac. The 10-year Treasury yield has moved up by a similar amount, and the 5-year breakeven rate, a bond market inflation gauge that measures the 5-year government note against the Treasury Inflation Protected Security of the same duration, has moved up about a quarter point and recently was at its highest level since early July.



SMBC Nikko Securities has been a lone voice on Wall Street encouraging the Fed to take a break from cuts until it can gain greater clarity about the current situation. The firm’s position has been that with stock market prices eclipsing new records as the Fed has shifted into easing mode, softening financial conditions threaten to push inflation back up. (Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic recently indicated that a November pause is a possibility he’s considering.)



“For Fed policymakers, lower interest rates are likely to further ease financial conditions, thereby boosting the wealth effect through higher equity prices. Meanwhile, a fraught inflationary backdrop should persist,” SMBC chief economist Joseph LaVorgna, who was a senior economist in the Donald Trump White House, wrote in a note Friday.



That leaves folks like the young man who Daly, the San Francisco Fed president, encountered uneasy about the future and hinting whether the Fed perhaps is making a policy mistake.



“I think we can move towards [a world] where people have time to catch up and then get ahead,” Daly said during her talk in New York. “That is, I told the young father on the sidewalk, my version of victory, and that’s when I will consider the job done.”

108048712-1729110726420-gettyimages-2178767848-dsc_1378_dxqewiuu

Here’s why inflation may look like it’s easing but is still a huge problem

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="461" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/107077973-1655689250819-gettyimages-1402870855-vcg111387492036-1-820x461.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-544690" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/107077973-1655689250819-gettyimages-1402870855-vcg111387492036-1-820x461.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/107077973-1655689250819-gettyimages-1402870855-vcg111387492036-1-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/107077973-1655689250819-gettyimages-1402870855-vcg111387492036-1-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/107077973-1655689250819-gettyimages-1402870855-vcg111387492036-1-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/107077973-1655689250819-gettyimages-1402870855-vcg111387492036-1-1536x864.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/107077973-1655689250819-gettyimages-1402870855-vcg111387492036-1.jpeg 1920w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">China’s central bank supplied 14-day cash to its banking system for the first time in months on Monday and at a lower interest rate, signaling its intent to further ease monetary conditions. Jiang Qiming | China News Service | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



China on Monday lowered its main benchmark lending rates by 25 basis points at the monthly fixing.



The one-year loan prime rate (LPR) has been cut to 3.1%, while the five-year LPR has been trimmed to 3.6%, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) said.



The one-year LPR influences corporate loans and most household loans in China, while the five-year LPR serves as a benchmark for mortgage rates.



The move was expected. China’s central bank governor Pan Gongsheng had indicated on Friday during a forum held in Beijing that the loan prime benchmark rates would be lowered by 20 to 25 basis points.



During the forum, Pan also said that the amount of cash that banks need to have on hand, also known as the reserve requirement ratio or RRR, could be lowered by another 25 to 50 basis points by the end of the year, depending on the liquidity situation.



The seven-day reverse repurchase rate will be cut by 20 basis points, while the medium-term lending facility rate will be lowered by 30 basis points, Pan also highlighted.&nbsp;



While the loan prime rate cuts were expected, it does confirm that monetary stimulus is at least “occurring on a significant basis in China,” said Shane Oliver, head of investment strategy and chief economist at AMP. However, he noted that the cut alone is insufficient to lift the country’s economy, reiterating growing calls for more fiscal stimulus.



“The cost of money, the supply of money, is not the real issue in China. The real issue is a lack of demand, and that’s why I think fiscal stimulus is so important,” he added.



Despite recent cuts, the real interest rate in China is still “too high,” said Zhiwei Zhang, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management. “I expect more rate cuts next year as the Fed rate declines.”



Last month, China’s central bank trimmed its reserve requirement ratio 50 basis points. The move came as the PBOC released a blitz of support measures aimed at shoring up the world’s second largest economy, which is facing a prolonged property crisis and weak consumer sentiment.



China surprised the markets by shaving its major short and long term lending rates in July.



Last week, China reported slightly better than expected third-quarter GDP growth of 4.6% year-on-year. Additional data released on Friday, including retail sales and industrial production for September, had also beat expectations, a hopeful sign for the country’s flagging economy.



—CNBC’s Evelyn Cheng contributed to this report.

107077973-1655689250819-gettyimages-1402870855-vcg111387492036

China cuts benchmark lending rates by 25 basis points

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/GettyImages-1242420790-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-419241" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/GettyImages-1242420790-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/GettyImages-1242420790-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/GettyImages-1242420790-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/GettyImages-1242420790-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/GettyImages-1242420790-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/GettyImages-1242420790-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Electricity pylon is seen near from the Tihange Nuclear Power Station on August 10, 2022, in Tihange, Belgium. As the European Union prepares for the drastic reduction of Russian gas imports, some users are concerned about the risk of heating and electricity cuts next winter. (Photo by Thierry Monasse/Getty Images)</figcaption></figure>



SINGAPORE, Oct 21 (Reuters) &#8211; Tanzania is building a grid interconnector with Zambia to help assist in mitigating a drought-driven power crisis, Tanzania&#8217;s deputy prime minister said at the Singapore International Energy Week conference on Monday.



&#8220;We have some interconnectors with our neighbours, Rwanda, Burundi, Kenya and now we are pulling up an interconnector with Zambia, which will help us to assist our neighbour in Zambia who is facing a deadly drought,&#8221; said Doto Biteko, who is also the energy minister.



&#8220;Tanzania being a member of the Eastern African Power Pool &#8230; we have a bigger market where whenever we have access to electricity, we can sell to our neighbouring countries.&#8221;



The development of the grid interconnector will take 36 months, with work having begun last month, he&nbsp;added&nbsp;on the sidelines of the conference.



Kenya, Tanzania and Zambia said in 2014 that they will spend $1.4 billion to link their power grids by 2018 and create a regional power pool for trading electricity.



On the $42 billion development of Tanzania LNG, a liquefied natural gas export plant, Biteko said the government is in negotiations with the project&#8217;s partners and operators to finalise the host government agreement, but did not give a timeline for when negotiations will be completed.



Tanzania LNG was delayed by proposed government changes to a financial agreement reached last year. A government spokesperson said the proposed amendment to the Host Government Agreement intends to ensure that both sides benefit fairly in the whole deal.



Equinor and Shell are joint operators while Exxon Mobil, Pavilion Energy, Medco Energi and Tanzania&#8217;s national oil company TPDC are partners.



(Reporting by Emily Chow, Sudarshan Varadhan and Trixie Yap; Editing by Sonali Paul and Stephen Coates)

Tihange Nuclear Power Station

Tanzania building grid interconnector with Zambia to help mitigate power crisis

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="960" height="503" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/WY6G22MR2FISHBZ2DHXCZR57HY.avif" alt="" class="wp-image-543693"/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">World Bank President Ajay Banga looks on during an interview with Reuters in Washington, U.S., October 15, 2024. REUTERS/Nathan Howard/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



WASHINGTON, Oct 17 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;World Bank President Ajay Banga said on Thursday that bilateral&nbsp;and Paris Club commercial&nbsp;creditors need to provide more debt forgiveness to&nbsp;poor&nbsp;debt-distressed countries, and that the development lender was working on ways to ease service costs to improve development outcomes.



Banga, speaking to reporters ahead of World Bank and International Monetary Fund annual meetings&nbsp;next week, said the bank has already answered calls for its share of debt relief in restructurings by providing billions of dollars in additional grants and deeply discounted loans to debtor countries.



Some $16 billion to $17 billion has gone to Zambia, Chad, Ethiopia and Ghana during their slow and painful debt restructuring processes.



&#8220;Effectively, what we&#8217;re doing is giving them the lifeline they need, whether you do it as a debt forgiveness or you give them a grant,&#8221; Banga said. &#8220;Debt forgiveness is required, but not from us. It&#8217;s required from those creditors. That&#8217;s the issue we&#8217;re trying to work our way through.&#8221;



Banga did not specifically mention China, which has been among the largest creditors to debt-distressed countries and has been slow to agree to reductions in debt principal.



Banga said that the World Bank was working with several countries on potential ways to re-profile debt to reduce servicing costs &#8220;and take the distance and put it into development, life, education, what you would call a debt-for- development swap.&#8221;



(Reporting by David Lawder; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and Mark Porter)

WY6G22MR2FISHBZ2DHXCZR57HY

World Bank’s Banga says more bilateral, commercial debt forgiveness needed

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="545" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/QDD6H7MOFZI2NGIGHSUVQUYPO4-820x545.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-543673" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/QDD6H7MOFZI2NGIGHSUVQUYPO4-820x545.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/QDD6H7MOFZI2NGIGHSUVQUYPO4-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/QDD6H7MOFZI2NGIGHSUVQUYPO4-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/QDD6H7MOFZI2NGIGHSUVQUYPO4-768x511.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/QDD6H7MOFZI2NGIGHSUVQUYPO4-1536x1022.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/QDD6H7MOFZI2NGIGHSUVQUYPO4-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">A view shows banners with the logo of the annual BRICS summit near the Kazan Kremlin and the Kul Sharif Mosque in Kazan, Russia October 17, 2024. REUTERS/Alexey Nasyrov</figcaption></figure>



MOSCOW, Oct 18 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;The BRICS group will generate most of the global economic growth in the coming years thanks to its size and relatively fast growth compared with that of&nbsp;developed Western&nbsp;nations, Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Friday.



Putin hopes to build up BRICS &#8211; which has expanded to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates as well as Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa &#8211; as a powerful counterweight to the West in global politics and trade.



The Kremlin leader is due to host a BRICS summit in the Russian city of Kazan on Oct. 22-24.



&#8220;The countries in our association are essentially the drivers of global economic growth. In the foreseeable future, BRICS will generate the main increase in global GDP,&#8221; Putin told officials and businessmen at BRICS business forum in Moscow.



&#8220;The economic growth of BRICS members will increasingly depend less on external influence or interference. This is essentially economic sovereignty,&#8221; Putin added.



Next week&#8217;s summit is being presented by Moscow as evidence that Western efforts to isolate Russia over its actions in Ukraine have failed.



Russia wants other countries to work with it to overhaul the global financial system and end the dominance of the U.S. dollar.



China, India and the UAE confirmed on Friday that their leaders&nbsp;would&nbsp;attend&nbsp;the&nbsp;summit&nbsp;in Kazan.



Putin cited some of the&nbsp;initiatives&nbsp;that Russia has previously outlined ahead of the summit, including a joint cross-border payments system and a reinsurance company.



He called on the New Development Bank, the BRICS&#8217; only functioning multilateral development institution, to invest in technology and infrastructure across the countries of the Global South.



&#8220;As a development institution, the bank already serves as an alternative to many Western financial mechanisms, and we will naturally continue to develop it,&#8221; Putin said. He called for more investment in e-commerce and artificial intelligence.



Putin sought to promote Russia&#8217;s new transport megaprojects such as the Arctic Sea Route and the North-to-South corridor, linking Russia to the Gulf and Indian Ocean through the Caspian Sea and Iran.



&#8220;It is the key to increasing freight transportation between the Eurasian and African continents,&#8221; he said.



(Reporting by Oksana Kobzeva and Gleb Bryanski; Editing by Gareth Jones)

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featured

Who is running for president in Botswana’s election?

Kenya fulfilled all targets in IMF review, central bank governor says

BRICS leaders tout joint finance, trade projects at Russian summit

Mozambique’s dollar bond falls as unrest over disputed election simmers

South African inflation drops sharply, paving way for more rate cuts

Climate change worsened rains in flood-hit African regions, scientists say

African progress backslides as coups and war persist

African football paid out $50-million settlement over marketing rights

Russia pushes ‘new world order’ agenda as it hosts beefed-up BRICS summit

‘New bullish phase’? As gold hits another high, analysts say more records are in sight

South Africa’s budget to show healthier finances but discipline still needed, economists say

Nigeria approves Exxon-Seplat deal after more than two years

Here’s why inflation may look like it’s easing but is still a huge problem

China cuts benchmark lending rates by 25 basis points

Tanzania building grid interconnector with Zambia to help mitigate power crisis

World Bank’s Banga says more bilateral, commercial debt forgiveness needed

Putin says BRICS will generate most of global economic growth

News Tips

Advertise With Us

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