<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1920" height="1005" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/3GQDJSI4GBKYFLS5LW25CALRGU.avif" alt="" class="wp-image-550496"/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Shoppers walk within Merkato, one of Africa&#8217;s biggest open air market, in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, April 25, 2024. REUTERS/Tiksa Negeri/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



NAIROBI, Nov 5 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;The International Monetary Fund has raised Ethiopia&#8217;s net international reserves target to facilitate payments of upcoming hard currency bills, the Fund said.



The East African nation secured a $3.4 billion, four-year financing program from the IMF in July after carrying out a series of reforms including floating its birr currency. It is also in the midst of a fresh push to put its debt restructuring back on track.



&#8220;An increase in near-term target is warranted by Ethiopia&#8217;s vulnerabilities and heightened uncertainty around outlook,&#8221; the IMF said in a report published late on Monday.



Lower-than-expected volumes of hard currency sales by the central bank through auctions and higher gold exports contributed to an over-performance of the net international reserves target for August, the IMF said.



The net international reserves stood at $1.3 billion in mid-August, more than double the target of $630 million, the Fund said.



It raised the end-June 2025 target by $300 million to $400 million, to help create a buffer for the country to settle maturing letters of credit for fuel imports issued before reforms started.



The flotation of the birr currency resulted in the convergence of the official and the black market rates, the IMF said, but market activities had picked up at a slower pace than expected, leading to persistent unmet demand for dollars.



Ethiopia plans to reach a deal with bilateral creditors by year-end, the Fund said, followed by a deal with its Eurobond investors &#8220;as soon as is feasible&#8221; after that.



Bondholders have rejected the size of the proposed reduction in the principal amount, known as a haircut, indicated at 18% in a recent investor presentation, saying the government was ignoring the fact that Ethiopia faces a liquidity issue, not an insolvency one.



&#8220;The authorities are making good faith efforts to agree terms with Eurobond holders,&#8221; the IMF said.



(Reporting by Duncan Miriri; Editing by Bernadette Baum)

3GQDJSI4GBKYFLS5LW25CALRGU

IMF raises Ethiopia’s international reserves target after first review

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1920" height="1005" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/WH675YVHBZPIZNYJUJB4CMI73E.avif" alt="" class="wp-image-550493"/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">A view shows a toll station on the Expressway undertaken by the China Road and Bridge Corporation (CRBC) on a public-private partnership (PPP) basis, in Nairobi, Kenya May 8, 2022. REUTERS/Thomas Mukoya/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



NAIROBI, Nov 5 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Kenya&#8217;s private sector saw a modest improvement in business conditions in October, as activity levels and employment returned to growth, an S&amp;P Global survey showed on Tuesday.



The headline Purchasing Managers&#8217; Index (PMI) rose to 50.4 in October from 49.7 in September, indicating a marginal upturn in the health of the private sector. A PMI reading above 50.0 signals growth, while below that level indicates contraction.



Business activity increased for the second time in three months, driven by rising sales and greater client interest, despite ongoing cash flow challenges and political uncertainty. Employment levels also rose for the first time since July, although the pace of job creation was mild.



&#8220;Despite the slight rise in output, many firms continued to struggle with cash flow constraints, tough economic conditions, rising costs and political uncertainty,&#8221; the survey reported.



Purchasing efforts accelerated, leading to the most significant increase in inventories since August 2023, as firms stocked up in anticipation of new customers. Input cost pressures remained mild, resulting in only a slight rise in average prices charged.



Confidence regarding future activity rose to a four-month high, with firms planning new outlets and investments in products and marketing. However, sentiment remained subdued compared to historical trends.



While input prices rose modestly, driven by higher tax payments and material costs, reduced fuel prices helped keep cost burdens lower than last year. As a result, the increase in selling prices was among the slowest in nearly four years.



(Reporting by Reuters; Editing by Toby Chopra)

WH675YVHBZPIZNYJUJB4CMI73E

Kenya’s private sector activity returns to growth in October, PMI shows

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="522" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/KZ4R5MANMJIQPBC4GDTYRR7RTA-820x522.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-550420" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/KZ4R5MANMJIQPBC4GDTYRR7RTA-820x522.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/KZ4R5MANMJIQPBC4GDTYRR7RTA-300x191.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/KZ4R5MANMJIQPBC4GDTYRR7RTA-141x90.jpg 141w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/KZ4R5MANMJIQPBC4GDTYRR7RTA-768x489.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/KZ4R5MANMJIQPBC4GDTYRR7RTA-1536x977.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/KZ4R5MANMJIQPBC4GDTYRR7RTA-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: A teller is seen at a Pick n Pay store at Maponya mall in Soweto, South Africa, October 20, 2022. REUTERS/Siphiwe Sibeko/File photo</figcaption></figure>



JOHANNESBURG, Nov 5 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;South Africa&#8217;s private sector maintained its growth trajectory in October, bolstered by a decline in business costs and selling prices, a Purchasing Managers&#8217; Index (PMI) survey showed on Tuesday.



The S&amp;P Global South Africa PMI recorded a reading of 50.6, slightly down from September&#8217;s 51.0, but still above the 50.0 mark that indicates growth.



The PMI has now signalled expansion for three consecutive months.



New orders continued to grow, marking the longest period of expansion since mid-2022, although the pace slowed to a marginal rate. The growth was primarily driven by the industry and wholesale &amp; retail sectors, while construction and services lagged.



A notable development was the first drop in input costs in over four years, driven by a strong rand, lower fuel prices and reduced interest rates. This allowed firms to cut selling prices, boosting customer spending.



&#8220;October was another strong month for the South African economy,&#8221; said David Owen, senior economist at S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence.



&#8220;The survey data also provided further evidence that inflationary pressures are falling.&#8221;



Despite rising sales, employment decreased for the fifth consecutive month as firms remained cautious about costs. However, input purchases rose for the first time since May, with firms increasing inventories amid improving demand and lower borrowing costs.



Business confidence improved, with 52% of respondents expecting output to rise over the next year, citing political stability and improved power availability as key factors. Nonetheless, challenges remain, with delivery delays persisting due to domestic port congestion.



(Reporting by South Africa bureau; Editing by Toby Chopra)

A teller is seen at a Pick n Pay store

South Africa’s private sector growth sustained in October as costs fall, PMI shows

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="2048" height="1365" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/4IJSVHM2FFM5LEEQMNYEX3P3XQ-scaled.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-550389" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/4IJSVHM2FFM5LEEQMNYEX3P3XQ-scaled.jpg 2048w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/4IJSVHM2FFM5LEEQMNYEX3P3XQ-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/4IJSVHM2FFM5LEEQMNYEX3P3XQ-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/4IJSVHM2FFM5LEEQMNYEX3P3XQ-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/4IJSVHM2FFM5LEEQMNYEX3P3XQ-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/4IJSVHM2FFM5LEEQMNYEX3P3XQ-1536x1024.jpg 1536w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 2048px) 100vw, 2048px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">David Lammy arrives at 10 Downing Street, following the results of the election, in London, Britain, July 5, 2024. REUTERS/Hannah McKay</figcaption></figure>



ABUJA, (Reuters) &#8211; Nigeria and Britain said on Monday they had established a strategic partnership to boost economic growth, strengthen security cooperation and enhance personal ties.



Nigerian Foreign Minister Yusuf Tuggar and his British counterpart David Lammy outlined a partnership that also seeks to reinforce ongoing security and counter-terrorism efforts.



&#8220;By advancing our economic ties through investments and trade, we can unlock substantial growth for both nations, drive job creation and enhance local value addition,&#8221; Tuggar said during a joint press conference in Abuja, Nigeria&#8217;s capital.



Lammy, who is on his first official visit to Africa as Foreign Secretary, emphasized Britain&#8217;s commitment to a long-term partnership with Nigeria.



&#8220;It is an overarching framework for our relationship covering the breadth of things that we do together,&#8221; said Lammy, who also highlighted the importance of addressing economic growth, climate change, and security threats.



Lammy also stressed personal connections, adding that the sizeable Nigerian diaspora in Britain offers the potential for increased cultural exchange and economic cooperation.



(Reporting by Felix Onuah; Writing by Elisha Bala-Gbogbo; Editing by Alexander Smith)

Parliamentary election in Britain

Nigeria and Britain hail partnership to boost economic ties, security

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="574" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/SN44UK6HYFKKVFUVO3DEF3KYNI-820x574.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-550158" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/SN44UK6HYFKKVFUVO3DEF3KYNI-820x574.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/SN44UK6HYFKKVFUVO3DEF3KYNI-300x210.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/SN44UK6HYFKKVFUVO3DEF3KYNI-129x90.jpg 129w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/SN44UK6HYFKKVFUVO3DEF3KYNI-768x537.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/SN44UK6HYFKKVFUVO3DEF3KYNI-1536x1074.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/SN44UK6HYFKKVFUVO3DEF3KYNI-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Britain&#8217;s Prince William arrives at Cape Town International Airport for a 4 day visit where he will present the 4th annual Earthshot Prize in Cape Town, South Africa, November 4, 2024.REUTERS/Esa Alexander</figcaption></figure>



CAPE TOWN, Nov 4 (Reuters) &#8211; Britain&#8217;s Prince William landed in Cape Town on Monday for a four-day trip to South Africa centred on his annual Earthshot Prize for environmental innovators.



The heir to the British throne will attend a global wildlife summit and meet with South African President Cyril Ramaphosa during the trip, which is his first to South Africa since 2010.



On Wednesday he will participate in the awards ceremony for the Earthshot Prize, which gives five winners 1 million pounds ($1.3 million) each to pursue projects addressing climate change and other environmental issues.



William launched the prize in 2020, inspired by a visit to Namibia. Its name is a nod to former U.S. President John F. Kennedy&#8217;s ambitious &#8220;moonshot&#8221; project which led to the 1969 lunar landing.



&#8220;By the end of the week, I want The Earthshot Prize to have provided a platform to all those innovators bringing about change for their communities, encouraged potential investors to speed African solutions to scale and inspired young people across Africa who are engaged in climate issues,&#8221; he said in a statement ahead of the visit.



The Prince Of Wales is making the trip alone as his wife Kate is still managing a return to work after finishing a course of preventative chemotherapy for cancer.



South Africa is a former British colony and some people there have called for the return of diamonds originally discovered in the country and then set in the British crown jewels.



($1 = 0.7717 pounds)



(Reporting by Esa Alexander; Writing by Nellie Peyton; Editing by Olivia Kumwenda-Mtambo and Gareth Jones)

Britain’s Prince William arrives in South Africa

UK’s Prince William arrives in South Africa for climate-focused trip

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="590" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/5U27LJVU5BN7XKS2NTCXPR65SQ-820x590.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-550088" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/5U27LJVU5BN7XKS2NTCXPR65SQ-820x590.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/5U27LJVU5BN7XKS2NTCXPR65SQ-300x216.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/5U27LJVU5BN7XKS2NTCXPR65SQ-125x90.jpg 125w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/5U27LJVU5BN7XKS2NTCXPR65SQ-768x553.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/5U27LJVU5BN7XKS2NTCXPR65SQ-1536x1105.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/5U27LJVU5BN7XKS2NTCXPR65SQ-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: A branch of South African mobile communications provider Vodacom in Cape Town is shown in this picture taken November 10, 2015. REUTERS/Mike Hutchings/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



JOHANNESBURG, Nov 4 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;The Competition Tribunal&#8217;s decision to block a merger between Vodacom and a major fibre operator will likely derail a push by South African telecoms firms to use big M&amp;A deals as a shortcut to digital infrastructure expansion, analysts said.



The ruling,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.reutersconnect.com/all?search=all%3AL1N3M50FV&amp;linkedFromStory=true" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">which blocked</a>&nbsp;South Africa&#8217;s top telco from taking a 30% stake in major fibre operator Maziv, could force companies to build their own networks or pursue smaller, less controversial tie-ups, delaying much-needed investment by years.



For Andrew Bahlmann of M&amp;A advisory firm Deal Leaders International, it is a setback for the entire industry.



&#8220;For telcos and fibre network operators contemplating future mergers, this prohibition of a merger for which the business case was clearly positive indicates that the path to consolidation is fraught with challenges,&#8221; he said.



The communications sector in Africa&#8217;s most advanced economy needs significant capital injections to ramp up infrastructure development, particularly if connectivity is to be improved in low income and rural areas.



Dominant companies like Vodacom&nbsp;VODJ.J&nbsp;and MTN&nbsp;MTNJ.J&nbsp;say mergers would allow them to leverage existing networks as a springboard to extending and improving coverage. And some smaller firms, including fibre operators, say tie-ups would provide the funding they need to grow.



But regulators fear that consolidation could lead to higher prices, less choice and lower quality for consumers.



The tribunal has yet to detail the grounds for Tuesday&#8217;s ruling, and Vodacom, which is majority-owned by Britain&#8217;s Vodafone&nbsp;VOD.L, said it was considering an appeal.



The South African Competition Commission, which testified before the tribunal that the deal would open the door to further consolidation and harm consumers, welcomed the decision.



But Old Mutual Wealth Private Client research analyst Tasneem Samodien said it would likely lead to stagnation.



&#8220;What it does is delay investment by current market participants until they determine a commercially viable path to scale,&#8221; Samodien said.



&#8220;For consumers, particularly those in outlying areas where network connection is relatively poor, the roll out of infrastructure could be delayed.&#8221;



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-inevitable-consolidation">INEVITABLE CONSOLIDATION?</h2>



Both Vodacom and MTN have been aggressively rolling out fixed-wireless networks that use 4G and 5G, while also investing in their small fibre businesses. But as they do this, they require more access to fibre links that carry mobile traffic from base stations back to the core network.



South Africa&#8217;s existing installed fibre capacity is owned by a number of operators of varying sizes. Tying up with them could give the mobile operators access to fibre networks while providing fibre companies capital to expand to new areas.



MTN has called consolidation in the sector &#8220;inevitable and even desirable&#8221;. But even before last week&#8217;s ruling, mergers were facing challenges, mainly over regulatory concerns.



In 2022, MTN&#8217;s talks to buy out smaller rival Telkom fell through. And last year, Rain&#8217;s push to be bought by Telkom ended without a deal.



Vodacom had pledged that much of the 6-9 billion rand ($342-512 million) in cash it was offering as part of the Maziv bid would go to infrastructure investment. It said a further 10 billion rand over five years would target investment in mainly low income areas.



But that was not enough to win over the tribunal.



That now leaves the company, and the sector more broadly, with slow and costly expansion options.



&#8220;Vodacom can continue with its own fibre network rollout and consider merging with several other small regional fibre operators,&#8221; Peter Takaendesa, head of equities at Mergence Investment Managers, said.



Vodacom&nbsp;declined to&nbsp;comment.



But analysts say that the Competition Tribunal&#8217;s decision will make M&amp;A deals in South Africa&#8217;s telecoms sector much less attractive to capital.



And even with financing, factors including environmental approval timelines and fibre equipment supply chains mean the big mobile operators have a long road ahead if they are to make up ground on existing fibre networks.



&#8220;My guess is five to 10 years,&#8221; Takaendesa said.



($1 = 17.5575 rand)



(Reporting by Nqobile Dludla; Editing by Joe Bavier and Mark Potter)

FILE PHOTO: A branch of South African mobile communications provider Vodacom in Cape Town

Blocked Vodacom merger derails S.African telcos M&A push, analysts say

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/ADDMXWU7SBNXBLLKVIVC7QKI2I-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-550050" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/ADDMXWU7SBNXBLLKVIVC7QKI2I-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/ADDMXWU7SBNXBLLKVIVC7QKI2I-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/ADDMXWU7SBNXBLLKVIVC7QKI2I-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/ADDMXWU7SBNXBLLKVIVC7QKI2I-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/ADDMXWU7SBNXBLLKVIVC7QKI2I-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/ADDMXWU7SBNXBLLKVIVC7QKI2I-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Botswana opposition leader Duma Boko smiles, after his party UDC won the general election, outside his home in Gaborone, Botswana November 1, 2024 REUTERS/Thalefang Charles</figcaption></figure>



GABORONE, Nov 1 (Reuters) &#8211; Botswana&#8217;s new president, Duma Boko, said on Friday he wanted to conclude talks for a new sales pact with global diamonds giant De Beers as soon as possible.



De Beers, a unit of mining company Anglo American&nbsp;AAL.L, last year agreed a new diamond sales pact, which would see the government&#8217;s share of diamonds from the Debswana joint venture gradually increase to 50% over the next decade. Debswana Diamond Company, equally owned by Botswana and De Beers, currently sells 75% of its output to De Beers.



Although the Botswana government and the country&#8217;s outgoing president, Mokgweetsi Masisi, touted the merits of the deal, it has yet to be signed.



Boko, who took office on Friday after an election that dealt a stinging defeat to Masisi&#8217;s party, said De Beers had been &#8220;considering walking away, not signing at all &#8230; (a) very dangerous position to be in as a country.&#8221;



&#8220;The relationship with De Beers could have been damaged by the way the negotiations were handled,&#8221; he said in a televised statement. &#8220;The first thing that needs to be done is to engage the other party.&#8221;



Boko added that his new administration wants to engage with De Beers to understand its concerns.



&#8220;A proper negotiation involves compromise, where you get a bit of what you wanted, the other person gets a bit,&#8221; he said. &#8220;Then &#8230; you have a durable, sustainable agreement.&#8221;



In an emailed comment, a De Beers spokesperson said: &#8220;We will continue to work with Botswana&#8217;s Government in support of shared objectives, as we always have.&#8221;



Anglo American is looking to divest De Beers as part of a broader restructuring of its sprawling business. Masisi had said in July the Botswana government may raise its shareholding in De Beers from its current 15%.



Anglo American&#8217;s process could become easier now that the election in Botswana has been concluded, diamond mining industry analyst Paul Zimnisky said.



&#8220;Diamonds by far represent the most important industry for Botswana, so this has to be one of the front and centre issues for the (new) president,&#8221; Zimnisky said. &#8220;I would expect to see progress on this front now.&#8221;



Like other luxury goods, diamond prices have been hammered by a slump in global demand. Sales of rough diamonds at Debswana fell about 52% in the first nine months of 2024, according to data released by Botswana&#8217;s central bank on Tuesday.



(Reporting by Brian Benza in Gaborone, Felix Njini in Johannesburg, Clara Denina in LondonEditing by Mark Potter, Ros Russell and Frances Kerry)

Botswana opposition leader Duma Boko

Botswana’s new president aims to clinch De Beers diamond sales pact soon

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="461" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/106621131-15949940512020-07-16t171324z_1245378320_rc2huh9ed5wu_rtrmadp_0_usa-china-travel-820x461.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-550005" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/106621131-15949940512020-07-16t171324z_1245378320_rc2huh9ed5wu_rtrmadp_0_usa-china-travel-820x461.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/106621131-15949940512020-07-16t171324z_1245378320_rc2huh9ed5wu_rtrmadp_0_usa-china-travel-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/106621131-15949940512020-07-16t171324z_1245378320_rc2huh9ed5wu_rtrmadp_0_usa-china-travel-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/106621131-15949940512020-07-16t171324z_1245378320_rc2huh9ed5wu_rtrmadp_0_usa-china-travel-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/106621131-15949940512020-07-16t171324z_1245378320_rc2huh9ed5wu_rtrmadp_0_usa-china-travel-1536x864.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/106621131-15949940512020-07-16t171324z_1245378320_rc2huh9ed5wu_rtrmadp_0_usa-china-travel.jpeg 1858w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">A flag stall at the Yiwu Wholesale Market in Zhejiang province, China, on May 10, 2019. Aly Song | Reuters</figcaption></figure>



BEIJING — The size of China’s highly anticipated stimulus plans will likely depend on the outcome of the U.S. presidential election, analysts said.



Investors expect Beijing to announce details on fiscal support Friday. That’s when the standing committee of the National People’s Congress — China’s parliament — is due to wrap up a five-day meeting. The same gathering last year oversaw a rare increase in the fiscal deficit.



This year, the meeting’s timing means any details will be out just days after the U.S. has voted Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat rival Kamala Harris in as the next president. Polls are set to close Tuesday local time.



“The size of China’s fiscal stimulus package would be around 10~20% bigger under a Trump win than under the scenario of a Harris win,” Ting Lu, chief China economist at Nomura, said in a note last week.



He cautioned that most of China’s challenges are domestic, though there will be some impact from the U.S. election result.



Trump has threatened to raise tariffs on U.S. imports from China by 60% — or reportedly by even 200% in an extreme scenario. Harris, currently vice president, has not yet signaled a major departure from the Biden administration’s approach of restricting China’s access to advanced technology.



More tariffs would hit China’s exports, a bright spot in an economy grappling with a real estate slump and tepid consumer demand.



Increased trade restrictions would require China to rely more on domestic demand to boost growth, Zhu Bin, chief economist of Nanhua Futures, said in a video presentation last week. That’s according to a CNBC translation of his Mandarin-language comments.



“Without question we can be certain of one thing — if Trump wins the election, China’s domestic stimulus will only be larger, not smaller,” Zhu said. He expects Trump has a greater chance of winning, which he said would increase downward pressure on the Chinese yuan versus the U.S. dollar.



Political analysts debate whether China’s relations with the U.S. would be better under Trump or Harris.



“I think at this point, probably from China’s view, a potential president Harris [makes it] easier to expect what policies likely come,” said Liqian Ren, leader of quantitative investment at WisdomTree.



That doesn’t mean Beijing will embark on large-scale support. Chinese authorities are “constrained by the U.S.-China competition, so the priority number one is to be able to upgrade technology across the board,” She said. “I think as long as that’s your goal then the government’s willingness to stimulate is still going to be lukewarm.”



Ren expects the scale of stimulus will be determined not by who wins the election, but the stock market reaction.



Market volatility in China, but not the United states, is likely to make “China feel more obligated to counter this volatility,” she said. In contrast to three or four years ago, Ren said, Chinese stock market volatility today has a greater impact on economic confidence.



Chinese stocks have tempered their gains in recent weeks after surging in late September. Chinese President Xi Jinping on Sept. 26 led a high-level meeting calling for strengthening fiscal and monetary policy support, and halting the decline in real estate.



While the People’s Bank of China has cut interest rates, the Ministry of Finance has yet to release details on widely anticipated fiscal stimulus. Finance Minister Lan Fo’an last month hinted at an increase in the deficit, and indicated any changes needed to undergo an approval process before being announced.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-how-large"><a></a>How large？</h2>



Analyst forecasts for additional debt issuance vary. China is considering more than 10 trillion yuan in debt issuance over a few years, Reuters reported Tuesday, citing sources.



Chinese authorities may not announce a specific number, but if they do, it should be more than 4 trillion yuan, given that was the amount issued in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, said Zong Liang, chief researcher at Bank of China. He expects the deficit could be expanded beyond 4%.



The Chinese government set a deficit target of 3% for this year, after increasing it to 3.8% late last year.



WisdomTree’s Ren said her analysis of official statements, media reports and investment notes revealed that stimulus expectations are inherently about the same. Whether it is 10 trillion yuan over three to five years, or 2 trillion yuan in one year, the average is about 2 trillion yuan in support a year, she pointed out.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-consumption-still-in-question"><a></a>Consumption still in question</h2>



“I think people right now are focusing a lot on the topline number,” Ren said. “But they are missing [how] the local government, they are doing a lot of things that are actually counter[ing] stimulus.”



She noted how local authorities have so strictly enforced tax collection in some areas that they have discouraged business activity. Despite some central government support, she said, she expects it will “probably be quite a while” before local authorities “feel they have the cash to spend.”



Dozens of companies in China this year disclosed in stock exchange filings that they have received notices from local authorities to pay back taxes tied to operations as far back as 1994. Local governments once relied on land sales to real estate developers for revenue.



The finance ministry has emphasized its focus on addressing local government debt problems. Analysts have pointed out how additional stimulus will also likely go toward banks, not direct handouts to consumers.



Consumption stimulus may come more from property support at this stage, Citi analysts said in a report Friday. “Having said that, we believe more decisive consumption support could still be a realistic option under more adverse tariff scenarios.”

106621131-15949940512020-07-16t171324z_1245378320_rc2huh9ed5wu_rtrmadp_0_usa-china-travel

China gears up for a big week as markets await U.S. elections and stimulus details

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/M7TCAQPVXRPFFGPEYDQ3ZMQKT4-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-548965" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/M7TCAQPVXRPFFGPEYDQ3ZMQKT4-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/M7TCAQPVXRPFFGPEYDQ3ZMQKT4-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/M7TCAQPVXRPFFGPEYDQ3ZMQKT4-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/M7TCAQPVXRPFFGPEYDQ3ZMQKT4-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/M7TCAQPVXRPFFGPEYDQ3ZMQKT4-1536x1025.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/M7TCAQPVXRPFFGPEYDQ3ZMQKT4-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">People wait to cast their votes in the 2024 general elections in Morwa village near Gaborone, Botswana October 30, 2024. REUTERS/Thalefang Charles</figcaption></figure>



GABORONE, Nov 1 (Reuters) &#8211; Botswana&#8217;s voters delivered a shock defeat to the party that has ruled them for nearly six decades, registering their anger over economic stagnation linked to a decline in the diamond trade by handing victory to opposition presidential candidate Duma Boko.



The 54-year-old, of the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC) coalition, will replace President Mokgweetsi Masisi, who on Friday conceded defeat after his Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) lost by a landslide for the first time in 58 years.



&#8220;From tomorrow&#8230; I will start the process of handover,&#8221; Masisi said in an audio clip of his phone call to Boko, which the outgoing leader posted on social media, signalling a smooth power transition.



&#8220;You can count on me to always be there to provide whatever guidance you might want &#8230; We will retreat to being a loyal opposition.&#8221;



Boko has yet to speak publicly on the outcome. Chief Justice Terence Rannowane officially declared him the victor: &#8220;I have the honour and privilege to declare him as elected president of Botswana. I congratulate you profoundly for the confidence that the people have shown in you.&#8221;



Analysts blamed mounting economic grievances, particularly among young people, for the downfall of the BDP, which has governed the southern African state of around 2.5 million people since independence from Britain in 1966.



Like many African countries, Botswana&#8217;s economy has largely depended on the export of a single commodity &#8211; in its case, diamonds.



Unlike many, its leaders have largely resisted the urge to steal or squander their commodity windfall, instead spending it on health, education and social welfare. Botswana&#8217;s GDP per capita was $7,250 in 2023 &#8211; compared with an average for sub-Saharan Africa of $4,800, World Bank data shows.



But a downturn in the global diamond market caused economic growth to plummet this year to a projected 1%, while unemployment rose to 28%.



Botswana is the world&#8217;s top producer by value of diamonds, and the government owns a 15% stake in diamond giant De Beers, a unit of Anglo American Masisi last year negotiated a bigger share of its raw diamonds with the company.



Boko has not indicated that he would want to change the deal.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-nothing-to-offer">&#8216;NOTHING TO OFFER&#8217;</h2>



State television showed that based on results from 55 of 61 constituencies, the UDC had won 32 seats in parliament, one more than it needed for a majority. The largest party chooses the president. The BDP was in last place out of four parties, with only four seats.



&#8220;After 58 years in power (the BDP) didn&#8217;t have anything new to offer,&#8221; said analyst Ringisai Chikohomero of the Pretoria-based Institute for Security Studies.



The UDC, by contrast, put forward ambitious policy proposals, he said. It pledged to more than double the minimum wage, improve social services and create a more independent judiciary, among other measures.



The capital Gaborone was calm on Friday morning, with small groups of opposition supporters celebrating in the streets.



&#8220;I did not ever think I would witness this change in my life,&#8221; 23-year-old student Mpho Mogorosi said. &#8220;The BDP had stayed too long &#8230;&nbsp;and I am proud to be part of the people that removed them.&#8221;



The BDP was the second long-ruling party in southern Africa to lose its majority at the polls this year, after South Africa&#8217;s African National Congress failed to&nbsp;win&nbsp;more than half&nbsp;of&nbsp;votes for the first time in 30 years.



Neighbouring Namibia will hold elections later this month in which the ruling SWAPO party, which has governed since 1990, is also expected to face a stiff challenge.



&#8220;The outcome of Botswana&#8217;s elections should serve as a warning to long-time ruling parties across southern Africa and beyond that without economic progress and employment opportunities, political dominance will falter,&#8221; said Zaynab Hoosen, an Africa analyst at consultancy Pangea-Risk.



(Reporting by Brian Benza; Additional reporting and writing by Nellie Peyton; Editing by Alexander Winning, Tim Cocks and Ros Russell)

Botswana elections

Botswana voters kick out ruling party of nearly six decades

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/SLHJX2P6XROTBKALLWANWZ4S4M-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-549104" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/SLHJX2P6XROTBKALLWANWZ4S4M-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/SLHJX2P6XROTBKALLWANWZ4S4M-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/SLHJX2P6XROTBKALLWANWZ4S4M-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/SLHJX2P6XROTBKALLWANWZ4S4M-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/SLHJX2P6XROTBKALLWANWZ4S4M-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/SLHJX2P6XROTBKALLWANWZ4S4M-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Food supplies are pictured before a food aid distribution by volunteers of the Lagos food bank initiative in a community in Oworoshoki, Lagos, Nigeria July 10, 2021. REUTERS/Temilade Adelaja</figcaption></figure>



LAGOS, Nov 1 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Nigeria faces one of its worst hunger crises with more than 30 million people expected to be food insecure next year, a one third jump from this year due to economic hardship, a joint report by the government and United Nations said on Friday.



Nigeria, Africa&#8217;s most populous nation, is grappling with a cost of living crisis that led to deadly protests in August.



Economic hardship has worsened after President Bola Tinubu started austerity reforms, including devaluing the naira and ending a decades-old petrol subsidy, fuelling inflation.



The analysis, conducted twice a year in 26 states and the federal capital, projected that 33.1 million people would be food insecure by August next year. That compares with 24.8 million by end of this year.



&#8220;Several factors are driving this trend, but most prominently are economic hardship coupled with record high inflation, a record rise in food prices and record high transportation costs,&#8221; a statement accompanying the report said.



Chi Lael, World Food Programme spokesperson in Nigeria told Reuters that &#8220;economic decisions to strengthen the country in the long term, in the short term have felt like a direct attack on people&#8217;s wallets, hitting hardest every time they try to buy food.&#8221;



Finance Minister Wale Edun said on Thursday 5 million households had so far received cash handouts of 25,000 naira ($15.45), as part of the government&#8217;s programme to help the most vulnerable families.



High food prices have contributed the most to inflation, which advanced to 32.70% in annual terms in September from 32.15% in August.



Flooding and insecurity in northern states continued to hit agriculture, further driving up food prices beyond the reach of many families.



Last month&#8217;s floods destroyed an estimated 1.6 million hectares of crops, mainly in the northern food basket states, potentially causing production losses of a combined 1.1 million tonnes for maize, sorghum and rice, the joint statement said.



That is enough to meet the daily food needs of about 13 million people for a year.



In financial terms, the potential cereal crop losses amount to almost $1 billion in economic losses, the statement added.



($1 = 1,618.2600 naira)



(Reporting by MacDonald Dzirutwe; Editing by Ros Russell)

Food supplies are pictured before a food aid distribution by volunteers of the Lagos food bank initiative in a community in Oworoshoki, Lagos, Nigeria

Nigeria’s hunger crisis deepens with 33 million at risk, report says

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="472" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/T2GG5DOWQBNVBM4YVJ2KDX65FE-820x472.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-549004" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/T2GG5DOWQBNVBM4YVJ2KDX65FE-820x472.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/T2GG5DOWQBNVBM4YVJ2KDX65FE-300x173.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/T2GG5DOWQBNVBM4YVJ2KDX65FE-156x90.jpg 156w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/T2GG5DOWQBNVBM4YVJ2KDX65FE-768x442.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/T2GG5DOWQBNVBM4YVJ2KDX65FE-1536x884.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/T2GG5DOWQBNVBM4YVJ2KDX65FE-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: Kenya&#8217;s Interior Minister Kithure Kindiki speaks during a press conference in Kilifi county, Kenya March 27, 2024. REUTERS/Thomas Mukoya/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



NAIROBI, Nov 1 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Kenya&#8217;s new deputy president Kithure Kindiki was sworn in on Friday after a court lifted orders barring his inauguration following weeks of legal challenges by his predecessor, who was impeached by parliament last month.



The Senate voted to remove Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua from office in October on a handful of charges including gross violation of the constitution and stirring ethnic hatred &#8211; accusations that he rejects and has dismissed as politically motivated.



Kenya&#8217;s High Court had put a hold on Kindiki&#8217;s inauguration after Gachagua and his supporters filed over 30 court challenges to prevent his dismissal and replacement.



But the stay order was lifted on Thursday, with judges saying that the deputy president position should not remain vacant according to the constitution.



Gachagua&#8217;s legal battles extended months of political turbulence in the country, East Africa&#8217;s largest economy, that began with nationwide protests against unpopular tax hikes in June.



President William Ruto invited opposition members into his cabinet to create what he called a unity government in July in an attempt to ease tensions after demonstrators stormed parliament.



The political realignment also sidelined Gachagua, who had been a valuable asset for Ruto during his election campaign, helping secure a large block of votes from the populous Mount Kenya region. The two men have since fallen out.



Kindiki was a top contender to be Ruto&#8217;s running mate during the 2022 election and was appointed interior minister shortly after the president took office in September that year.



Ruto appointed Foreign Minister Musalia Mudavadi as interior minister late on Thursday.



(Reporting by Hereward Holland; Editing by Ammu Kannampilly, Sonali Paul and Angus MacSwan)

FILE PHOTO: Kenyan authorities to begin handing over bodies of cult massacre victims in Kilifi

Kenya’s new deputy president sworn in after challenge from predecessor

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="546" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/GettyImages-2178136315-820x546.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-548948" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/GettyImages-2178136315-820x546.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/GettyImages-2178136315-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/GettyImages-2178136315-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/GettyImages-2178136315-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/GettyImages-2178136315-1536x1023.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/GettyImages-2178136315-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">CALLINGTON, ENGLAND &#8211; OCTOBER 17: Prince William, Prince of Wales, the Duke of Cornwall, arrives at the College Stoke Climsland for a visit and to learn about how the college is providing opportunities for young people in rural areas, on October 17, 2024 in Callington, Cornwall, England. (Photo by Justin Tallis &#8211; WPA Pool/Getty Images)</figcaption></figure>



LONDON, Nov 1 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Prince William jets to South Africa next week for the start of a four day trip which will take in the annual awards ceremony for the British heir-to-the throne&#8217;s multi-million dollar environmental prize.



William travels to Cape Town on Monday for a series of events to promote his Earthshot Prize, while he will also attend the United for Wildlife Global Summit and have a meeting with South African President Cyril Ramaphosa during his stay.



&#8220;His royal highness is looking forward to spending time with people from South Africa and across the wider continent, as well as celebrating the incredible climate solutions that will be spotlighted,&#8221; Kensington Palace said in a statement.



The trip will be the Prince Of Wales&#8217; first to South Africa since 2010, and he will be making the visit alone as his wife Kate is still managing a return to work after finishing a course of preventative chemotherapy for cancer.



William, who like his father King Charles has become a keen environmental campaigner, set up the Earthshot Prize in 2020, inspired by his last visit to Africa six years ago.



A nod to former U.S. President John F. Kennedy&#8217;s &#8220;moonshot&#8221; project which led to the 1969 lunar landing, its goal is to find innovations to combat climate and other green issues, and awards five winners 1 million pounds ($1.3 million) each to drive their projects.



The ceremony itself will be held on Nov. 6, hosted by U.S. actor Billy Porter and South African TV presenter Bonang Matheba, and will also feature performances by the likes of Nigerian pop star Davido and Tanzanian singer Diamond Platnumz.



Supermodel Heidi Klum and actress Nina Dobrev will be among the celebrities announcing the winners.



&#8220;I can’t wait to be part of an evening that celebrates creativity, human ingenuity, and artistry in all its different forms,&#8221; Porter said.



($1 = 0.7709 pounds)



(Reporting by Michael Holden; Editing by Kate Holton and Alison Williams)

The Duke of Cornwall To Visit Duchy College

Prince William heads to South Africa for green prize ceremony

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="516" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/D4444TONOVL5XOCAT6N7A747YM-820x516.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-548729" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/D4444TONOVL5XOCAT6N7A747YM-820x516.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/D4444TONOVL5XOCAT6N7A747YM-300x189.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/D4444TONOVL5XOCAT6N7A747YM-143x90.jpg 143w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/D4444TONOVL5XOCAT6N7A747YM-768x483.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/D4444TONOVL5XOCAT6N7A747YM-1536x967.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/D4444TONOVL5XOCAT6N7A747YM-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Kenya&#8217;s Cabinet Secretary of the Ministry of Interior and National Administration Kithure Kindiki speaks during a joint press conference, with British Minister of State for Security Tom Tugendhat during his visit, in Nairobi, Kenya May 10, 2023. REUTERS/Monicah Mwangi/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



NAIROBI, Oct 31 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Kenya&#8217;s high court on Thursday lifted orders barring the swearing-in of newly appointed deputy president Kithure Kindiki,&nbsp;whose&nbsp;predecessor&nbsp;has launched&nbsp;legal challenges over his removal from office by impeachment.



&#8220;The office of the deputy president should not remain vacant,&#8221; Judge Anthony Mrima said,&nbsp;after&nbsp;the filing of&nbsp;over&nbsp;30 court cases by Rigathi Gachagua against his ouster.&nbsp;The decision could be appealed to the Supreme Court.



Earlier this month the Senate voted to uphold five out of 11 charges against Gachagua, including gross violation of the constitution and stirring ethnic hatred &#8211; accusations that he has denied and dismissed as politically motivated.



President William Ruto subsequently chose Interior Minister Kithure Kindiki as his new deputy, but a court blocked his appointment.



Gachagua&#8217;s legal challenges extend months of political turmoil in Kenya, East Africa&#8217;s largest economy, that began with nationwide protests against unpopular tax hikes in June.



His impeachment followed a rift with Ruto that has soured their relationship since they ran together in an election two years ago.



(Reporting by Humphrey Malalo and Sonia Rao; writing by Elias Biryabarema; editing by Ammu Kannampilly, Alex Richardson and Mark Heinrich)

D4444TONOVL5XOCAT6N7A747YM

Kenya’s high court lifts order barring swearing-in of new deputy president

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="461" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108055459-1730370522435-gettyimages-2181307807-arroyofernandez-collecti241027_npBx9-820x461.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-548676" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108055459-1730370522435-gettyimages-2181307807-arroyofernandez-collecti241027_npBx9-820x461.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108055459-1730370522435-gettyimages-2181307807-arroyofernandez-collecti241027_npBx9-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108055459-1730370522435-gettyimages-2181307807-arroyofernandez-collecti241027_npBx9-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108055459-1730370522435-gettyimages-2181307807-arroyofernandez-collecti241027_npBx9-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108055459-1730370522435-gettyimages-2181307807-arroyofernandez-collecti241027_npBx9-1536x864.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108055459-1730370522435-gettyimages-2181307807-arroyofernandez-collecti241027_npBx9.jpeg 1600w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Line-up of pumpkins in the Netherlands, on Oct. 27, 2024. Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



Inflation in the 20-nation euro zone rose to 2% in October, preliminary figures released by statistics agency Eurostat showed Thursday.



Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a headline figure of 1.9%. The September headline reading was revised down to 1.7% from 1.8% on Oct. 17, below market expectations.



The biggest upward pull in the headline rate came from food, alcohol and tobacco, where price rises accelerated to 2.9% from 2.4%.



Core inflation, which excludes those volatile components along with energy prices, was unchanged at 2.7%, slightly higher than the 2.6% expected. Services inflation — an important gauge of domestic price pressures — also held steady at 3.9%.



The euro was up 0.17% against the U.S. dollar shortly after the release, trading at a two-week high of $1.0873.



The fresh Thursday inflation print is seen as crucial in judging whether the European Central Bank could consider implementing a jumbo half-percentage-point cut in interest rates at its next meeting in December.



The central bank has so far trimmed rates three times this year, making quarter-point increments that altogether took the central bank’s key rate from 4% to 3.25%.



Markets are currently pricing another 25-basis-point reduction in December.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-euro-zone-growth"><a></a>Euro zone growth</h2>



Traders are also considering the latest growth figures for the euro area, which showed better-than-expected 0.4% expansion in the third quarter, even as analysts predicted further weakness ahead.



The ECB said during its October meeting that the process of disinflation was “well on track” and that sluggishness in the euro zone’s economic activity had added to its confidence that inflation will not resurge dramatically.



“Hotter eurozone inflation, stronger growth and record low unemployment wipe out bets for a 50 [basis point] cut,” Kyle Chapman, foreign exchange market analyst at Ballinger Group, said in a note.



Chapman said that, while an uptick in consumer price growth was expected toward the end of the year, services inflation remained sticky.



“A big concern underpinning the risks of inflation undershooting the target was a potential tipping point with the labor market, the surprising resilience of which could be at risk of a sharp unwind in labor hoarding if consumption worsens. That concern is no longer so significant,” Chapman stressed, pointing to this week’s growth and employment figures.



“Back-to-back 25 [basis point] moves are the way to go. The need for below-neutral rates to rescue a contracting eurozone economy is fading from the discussion, and that negates the need to hurry the easing cycle, particularly with services inflation struggling to come unstuck.”

108055459-1730370522435-gettyimages-2181307807-arroyofernandez-collecti241027_npBx9

Euro zone inflation rises to higher-than-expected 2%, weakening case for jumbo rate cut

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108054622-1730265200794-gettyimages-2178145462-cfoto-automobi241017_nppCP-820x547.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-548613" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108054622-1730265200794-gettyimages-2178145462-cfoto-automobi241017_nppCP-820x547.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108054622-1730265200794-gettyimages-2178145462-cfoto-automobi241017_nppCP-300x200.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108054622-1730265200794-gettyimages-2178145462-cfoto-automobi241017_nppCP-135x90.jpeg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108054622-1730265200794-gettyimages-2178145462-cfoto-automobi241017_nppCP-768x512.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108054622-1730265200794-gettyimages-2178145462-cfoto-automobi241017_nppCP-1536x1024.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108054622-1730265200794-gettyimages-2178145462-cfoto-automobi241017_nppCP-scaled.jpeg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Robots manufacture auto parts at a factory in Ningde, China, on Oct. 17, 2024. Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



BEIJING — China’s official purchasing managers’ index for October came in at 50.1, in expansionary territory for the first time since April, according to National Bureau of Statistics data released Thursday.



The data beat expectations for 49.9, according to a Reuters poll. September’s reading was 49.8. The last time the PMI was above the 50-point line that determines contraction from activity was in April, with a reading of 50.4.



“I expect the economic momentum to improve moderately in Q4 as monetary and fiscal policies [loosen],” Zhiwei Zhang, president and chief economist, at Pinpoint Asset Management, said in a note.



China’s parliament standing committee is scheduled to meet next week, and is widely expected to release details on fiscal stimulus after the gathering ends on Nov. 8.



The sub-index for production came in at 52 for October, while that of new orders was 50. Raw materials inventory ticked up to 48.2, still in contraction territory, along with employment at 48.4, which was mildly better than the prior month.



The statistics bureau’s PMI for non-manufacturing activity rose to 50.2 in October. That was up from 50 in September but below August’s 50.3 print.



The employment portion of the non-manufacturing PMI climbed by 1.1 percentage points to 45.8.



A survey released Wednesday by the U.S.-based China Beige Book of 1,436 Chinese businesses between Oct. 18 and 25 found that manufacturing output improved from a year ago. New domestic and export orders also picked up, with export orders from the U.S. falling less sharply in October.



The Caixin China general manufacturing PMI for October is due out Friday, while the Caixin China general services PMI is scheduled for release Nov. 5.



China’s economic growth has slowed, dragged down by tepid consumer demand and a real estate slump. Exports have been a rare bright spot.



Stocks rallied after a series of high-profile stimulus announcements in the last several weeks, including a meeting led in late September by Chinese President Xi Jinping that called for strengthening fiscal and monetary policy support.

108054622-1730265200794-gettyimages-2178145462-cfoto-automobi241017_nppCP

China’s factory activity expands for the first time since April, official survey shows

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="539" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/YNW7WLFOZJOXJBVUR4VLTBHO4A-1-820x539.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-548558" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/YNW7WLFOZJOXJBVUR4VLTBHO4A-1-820x539.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/YNW7WLFOZJOXJBVUR4VLTBHO4A-1-300x197.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/YNW7WLFOZJOXJBVUR4VLTBHO4A-1-137x90.jpg 137w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/YNW7WLFOZJOXJBVUR4VLTBHO4A-1-768x505.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/YNW7WLFOZJOXJBVUR4VLTBHO4A-1-1536x1009.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/YNW7WLFOZJOXJBVUR4VLTBHO4A-1-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">A general view shows the Nation Centre and Lonrho Africa building in central business district in downtown Nairobi, Kenya February 18, 2022. REUTERS/Thomas Mukoya/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



NAIROBI, (Reuters) &#8211; The executive board of the International Monetary Fund has approved the seventh and eighth reviews of Kenya&#8217;s program, the IMF said on Wednesday, paving the way for the cash-strapped government to access a $606 million loan tranche.



The East African nation and staff of the IMF announced an agreement on the seventh review of its $3.6 billion program in June, but completion of the review at the board level and the subsequent disbursement were disrupted by deadly protests.



More than 60 people were killed in the violent protests which forced President William Ruto to abandon the government&#8217;s finance bill, which contained a slew of tax hikes.



&#8220;Kenya&#8217;s economy remains resilient, with growth above the regional average, inflation decelerating, and external inflows supporting the shilling and a buildup of external buffers, despite a difficult socio-economic environment,&#8221; IMF First Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath said in a statement on Wednesday.



The IMF also called for improving governance and transparency in Kenya.



&#8220;The Kenyan authorities face a difficult balancing act of boosting domestic revenues to protect critical spending in priority areas while meeting heavy debt service obligations,&#8221; the IMF said.



The board review also included a component of lending to Kenya under its sustainability window, which is known as RSF.



The IMF&#8217;s support is seen as crucial for Kenya to be able to navigate its current liquidity challenges, which are mainly driven by high debt interest repayments.



Government officials have indicated that Kenya will seek another program with the IMF when the current one ends next April.



(Reporting by Duncan Miriri; Additional reporting by Kanishka Singh; Editing by Daniel Wallis)

YNW7WLFOZJOXJBVUR4VLTBHO4A (1)

IMF board approves Kenya’s reviews, unlocking access to $606 million

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/GettyImages-2181228229-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-548267" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/GettyImages-2181228229-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/GettyImages-2181228229-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/GettyImages-2181228229-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/GettyImages-2181228229-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/GettyImages-2181228229-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/GettyImages-2181228229-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Enoch Godongwana, South Africa&#8217;s finance minister, at a news conference ahead of delivering his mid term budget policy statement to the parliament in Cape Town, South Africa, on Wednesday, Oct. 30, 2024. After years of weak growth, economists expect National Treasury to revise its forecasts for the next two years upwards, largely because of improved power supply. Photographer: Dwayne Senior/Bloomberg via Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



CAPE TOWN, Oct 30 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;South Africa&#8217;s&nbsp;government&nbsp;on Wednesday&nbsp;forecast&nbsp;wider budget deficits and higher debt over the next three years, even&nbsp;as it anticipated better growth prospects due to improved electricity supply.



In the first budget review since the African National Congress&nbsp;(ANC)&nbsp;lost its ruling majority and formed a coalition government, the&nbsp;National Treasury&nbsp;said it saw the consolidated deficit at 5.0% of&nbsp;national output&nbsp;in the fiscal year that ends in March 2025, wider than the 4.5% deficit forecast in February.



For next fiscal year, the Treasury now sees a budget deficit of 4.3% of&nbsp;gross domestic product (GDP),&nbsp;up from&nbsp;a previous forecast of 3.7%.



The projections were worse than expected in a Reuters poll published last week. Economists in that poll predicted that the Treasury would announce a narrower 2024/25 deficit forecast of 4.4% and of 3.9% for 2025/26.



The rand currency turned weaker against the U.S. dollar after the new projections were announced.



The Treasury said&nbsp;in its Medium Term Budget Policy Statementthat&nbsp;&#8220;fiscal consolidation measures have limited, but not prevented, the widening of budget deficits and debt&#8221;.



Revenue collection is expected to be hit by&nbsp;a decline in fuel levy and import value-added tax collections, among&nbsp;other things, it said.



&#8220;In the absence of faster growth and in the face of external risks, tax revenue will remain under pressure, forcing us to make difficult&nbsp;decisions,&#8221; Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana said.



South Africa&#8217;s gross debt is now seen stabilising at 75.5% of GDP in 2025/26.



The economy is expected to expand&nbsp;by&nbsp;1.1% this year, down from a February estimate of 1.3%. Growth is expected to come in at 1.7% in 2025,&nbsp;versus a&nbsp;previous forecast of 1.6%.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-infrastructure-focus">INFRASTRUCTURE FOCUS</h2>



Africa&#8217;s most industrialised economy has struggled to grow for more than a decade, constrained by inefficiencies at state power utility Eskom and port and freight rail operator Transnet.



The Treasury said the medium-term growth prospects were improving thanks to a suspension of rolling power blackouts and improved investor confidence following the formation of the coalition government in June, though lingering logistics bottlenecks remained a concern.



President Cyril Ramaphosa has touted infrastructure development as key to economic growth.



The Treasury said the government aimed to transform its approach to public sector infrastructure by doing more to attract private sector participation, including a focus on exploring alternative financing mechanisms.



(Reporting by Kopano Gumbi and Wendell Roelf in Cape Town, and Olivia Kumwenda-Mtambo and Tannur Anders in Pretoria;Additional reporting by Bhargav Acharya in Johannesburg;Writing by Olivia Kumwenda-Mtambo;Editing by Alexander Winning)

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featured

IMF raises Ethiopia’s international reserves target after first review

Kenya’s private sector activity returns to growth in October, PMI shows

South Africa’s private sector growth sustained in October as costs fall, PMI shows

Nigeria and Britain hail partnership to boost economic ties, security

UK’s Prince William arrives in South Africa for climate-focused trip

Blocked Vodacom merger derails S.African telcos M&A push, analysts say

Botswana’s new president aims to clinch De Beers diamond sales pact soon

China gears up for a big week as markets await U.S. elections and stimulus details

Botswana voters kick out ruling party of nearly six decades

Nigeria’s hunger crisis deepens with 33 million at risk, report says

Kenya’s new deputy president sworn in after challenge from predecessor

Prince William heads to South Africa for green prize ceremony

Kenya’s high court lifts order barring swearing-in of new deputy president

Euro zone inflation rises to higher-than-expected 2%, weakening case for jumbo rate cut

China’s factory activity expands for the first time since April, official survey shows

IMF board approves Kenya’s reviews, unlocking access to $606 million

South Africa sees wider deficits, higher debt in budget review

News Tips

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