<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="461" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/106941351-1639158059467-106941351-1631619886115-gettyimages-1234643404-US-ECONOMY-CPI-820x461.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-465499" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/106941351-1639158059467-106941351-1631619886115-gettyimages-1234643404-US-ECONOMY-CPI-820x461.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/106941351-1639158059467-106941351-1631619886115-gettyimages-1234643404-US-ECONOMY-CPI-300x169.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/106941351-1639158059467-106941351-1631619886115-gettyimages-1234643404-US-ECONOMY-CPI-160x90.jpg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/106941351-1639158059467-106941351-1631619886115-gettyimages-1234643404-US-ECONOMY-CPI-768x432.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/106941351-1639158059467-106941351-1631619886115-gettyimages-1234643404-US-ECONOMY-CPI-1536x864.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/106941351-1639158059467-106941351-1631619886115-gettyimages-1234643404-US-ECONOMY-CPI.jpg 1600w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Photo: via CNBC</figcaption></figure>



Inflation rose again in February, keeping the Federal Reserve on course to wait at least until the summer before starting to lower interest rates.



The consumer price index, a broad measure of goods and services costs, increased 0.4% for the month and 3.2% from a year ago, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday. The monthly gain was in line with expectations, but the annual rate was slightly ahead of the 3.1% forecast from the Dow Jones consensus.



Excluding volatile food and energy prices, the core CPI rose 0.4% on the month and was up 3.8% on the year. Both were one-tenth of a percentage point higher than forecast.



While the 12-month pace is off the inflation peak in mid-2022, it remains well above the Fed’s 2% goal as the central bank approaches its two-day policy meeting in a week.



A 2.3% increase in energy costs helped boost the headline inflation number. Food costs were flat on the month, while shelter rose another 0.4%.



The BLS reported that the increases in energy and shelter amounted to more than 60% of the total gain. Gasoline jumped 3.8% on the month while owners’ equivalent rent, a hypothetical gauge of what homeowners could get renting their properties, rose 0.4%.



“Inflation continues to churn above 3%, and once again shelter costs were the main villain. With home prices expected to rise this year and rents falling only slowly, the long-awaited fall in shelter prices isn’t coming to the rescue any time soon,” said Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. “Reports like January’s and February’s aren’t going to prompt the Fed to lower rates quickly.”



Airline fares posted a 3.6% increase, apparel prices rose 0.6% and used vehicles were up 0.5%. Medical care services, which helped feed a higher-than-expected CPI increase in January, decreased 0.1% last month.



The year-over-year increase for headline CPI was 0.1 percentage point higher than January, while core was one-tenth of a point lower.



Wall Street opened higher following the report, major stock averages as well as Treasury yields positive in early trading.



While the 12-month pace is off the inflation peak in mid-2022, it remains well above the Fed’s 2% goal as the central bank approaches its two-day policy meeting in a week.



Fed officials in recent weeks both have signaled that rate cuts are likely at some point this year and expressed caution about letting up too soon in the battle against high prices. The statement after the January meeting indicated that policymakers need “greater confidence” that inflation is moving back to target.



Chair Jerome Powell, in congressional testimony last week, echoed those concerns, though he did mention that the Fed is probably “not far” from the point where it can start easing up on monetary policy.



Tuesday’s report “leaves Fed officials some way from attaining the ‘greater confidence’ needed to begin cutting interest rates,” said Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist at Capital Economics.



For financial markets, the shift in the Fed stance from its apparent policy pivot in late 2023 has meant a repricing on the pace of rate cuts. Where futures traders entered the year expecting cuts to start coming in March, with six or seven total on the year, they have pushed out the first reduction to June, with two or three to follow, assuming cuts in quarter percentage point increments.



A bustling economy has helped the Fed focus on incoming data and allowed policymakers to avoid having to rush to lower rates. Gross domestic product expanded at a 2.5% annualized pace in 2023 and is on pace to increase at a 2.5% pace in the first quarter of 2024, according to the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker.



One key ingredient in that growth has been a resilient consumer boosted by a strong labor market. The economy added another 275,000 nonfarm jobs in February, though the increase skewed heavily to part-time positions and the unemployment rate rose to 3.9%.



Such strength can be a double-edged sword: While the growth in the face of aggressive rate hikes has bought the Fed time on policy, it also raises concerns that inflation could be more durable than expected.



Housing costs in particular have caused concern.



Shelter comprises about one-third of the CPI weighting and has been slow to decelerate, at least according to the BLS measure. Fed officials see rental prices coming down through the year, and other measures outside the CPI computation of owners-equivalent rent have shown easing price pressures.



Correction: The BLS reported that the increases in energy and shelter amounted to more than 60% of the total gain. An earlier version misstated a sector.

106941351-1639158059467-106941351-1631619886115-gettyimages-1234643404-US-ECONOMY-CPI

U.S. consumer prices rose 0.4% in February and 3.2% from a year ago

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="612" height="357" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/istockphoto-1030878162-612x612-1.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-400669" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/istockphoto-1030878162-612x612-1.jpg 612w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/istockphoto-1030878162-612x612-1-300x175.jpg 300w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 612px) 100vw, 612px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">World map with charts and graphs as symbols of global finance</figcaption></figure>



March 12 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Emerging market stocks climbed to a seven-month high on Tuesday, while currencies languished, with investors awaiting a crucial U.S. inflation report for insights into the timing for the Federal Reserve&#8217;s rate cuts this year.



The MSCI emerging market stocks index&nbsp;.MSCIEF&nbsp;advanced 0.9% as of 5:30 a.m. ET (0930) GMT, hitting its highest level since August 2023 and on track for its fifth straight daily gain.



The currencies index&nbsp;.MIEM00000CUS&nbsp;was largely flat, after touching an over two-month high during the day.



U.S. consumer prices data, due later in the day, and producer prices on Thursday will help investors gauge the timing of the first Federal Reserve interest-rate cut, seen in June as per a Reuters poll. The Fed&#8217;s March policy decision is due next week.



&#8220;We could be moving towards the point where both the Fed and ECB are ready to cut rates&#8230; an inline or weaker (CPI) print would reinforce our view of the June cut and be welcomed by the markets,&#8221; Mohit Kumar, European economist at Jefferies, said in a note.



The Russian rouble&nbsp;RUBUTSTN=MCX&nbsp;weakened slightly against the dollar and was seen trading in a narrow range, while South Africa&#8217;s rand&nbsp;ZAR=&nbsp;climbed slightly ahead of the U.S. data.



Among major developments, Vanke&#8217;s Hong Kong-listed shares 2202.HK jumped 10.3%, along with its bonds, after China&#8217;s No.2 property developer said the impact of a Moody&#8217;s ratings downgrade on financing activities was &#8220;controllable&#8221;, though some analysts remain concerned over its longer-term liquidity.



The Hang Seng Mainland Properties index&nbsp;.HSMPI&nbsp;logged its strongest one-day gain of 8.0% in six months, while the real estate sector&nbsp;.CSI000952&nbsp;climbed 5%. The Hang Seng index&nbsp;.HSI&nbsp;advanced to a three-month high, gaining 3.1%.



Egypt&#8217;s benchmark stock index&nbsp;.EGX30&nbsp;shed over 1% after touching a record high on Monday on upbeat sentiment driven by financing from United Arab Emirates and the International Monetary Fund.



Meanwhile in Central and East Europe, data showed Czech adjusted retail sales excluding cars and motorcycles increased by 2.4% year-on-year in January, while a media report stated central bank Vice-Governor Eva Zamrazilova said Czech interest rate cuts of 25 or 50 basis points are acceptable and bigger cuts should not be considered.



The Czech crown&nbsp;EURCZK=&nbsp;was up 0.2% against the euro.



The Polish zloty has outperformed its CEE peers in 2024, gaining more than 1% this year, owing to accelerated rate cuts in the Czech Republic and Hungary.



Argentina&#8217;s central bank cut its benchmark interest rate to 80% from 100% previously on Monday.



(Reporting by Ankika Biswas in Bengaluru; Editing by Ros Russell)

World map with charts and graphs as symbols of global finance

Stocks scale seven-month high, FX stalls with US inflation data in focus

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="461" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/107382361-1709644253010-gettyimages-1244106391-AFP_32LT92T-820x461.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-465380" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/107382361-1709644253010-gettyimages-1244106391-AFP_32LT92T-820x461.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/107382361-1709644253010-gettyimages-1244106391-AFP_32LT92T-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/107382361-1709644253010-gettyimages-1244106391-AFP_32LT92T-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/107382361-1709644253010-gettyimages-1244106391-AFP_32LT92T-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/107382361-1709644253010-gettyimages-1244106391-AFP_32LT92T-1536x864.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/107382361-1709644253010-gettyimages-1244106391-AFP_32LT92T.jpeg 1600w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Shoppers are seen in a Kroger supermarket in Atlanta on Oct. 14, 2022. Elijah Nouvelage | AFP | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



Rising gasoline prices likely put a floor under inflation in February, potentially reinforcing the Federal Reserve’s decision to take a go-slow approach with interest rate reductions.



Economists expect that prices across a broad spectrum of goods and services rose 0.4% on the month, just ahead of the January pace for 0.3%, according to the Dow Jones consensus. Excluding food and energy, the increase for core inflation is forecast at a 0.3% gain, also one-tenth of a percentage point above the previous month.



On a year-over-year basis, headline inflation is expected to show a 3.1% gain and core inflation a 3.7% increase when the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its latest reading on the consumer price index Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. ET. The respective 12-month readings in January were 3.1% and 3.9%.



Though it has fallen sharply since its peak in mid-2022, inflation’s resilience almost certainly will assure no Fed rate cuts at its next meeting March 19-20, and possibly into the summer, according to current market pricing. Markets were rattled in January when the CPI data came in higher than expected, and Fed officials shifted their rhetoric afterward to a more cautious tone about easing policy.



“While we do not expect the trend in inflation to re-accelerate this year, less clear progress over the next few months is likely to keep the Fed searching for more confidence that inflation is on course to return to target on a sustained basis,” Sarah House, senior economist at Wells Fargo, said in a recent client note.



Energy prices had eased earlier in the winter, putting some downward pressure on headline readings.



But Wells Fargo estimates that energy services rebounded 4% in February, leading to an increase at the pump, where a gallon of regular gas is up about 20 cents, or more than 6%, from a month ago, according to AAA.



The bank also estimates that goods prices have held their ground despite an easing in supply chain pressures and pressure from higher interest rates. On the brighter side, the House said lower prices on travel, medical care and other services helped keep inflation in check.



Still, Wells Fargo has raised its full-year inflation forecast.



The bank’s economists now expect core CPI to run at a 3.3% rate this year, up from the previous 2.8% estimate. Focusing on the core personal consumption expenditures price index, the preferred Fed gauge, Wells Fargo sees inflation at 2.5% for the year, versus a prior estimate of 2.2%.



Wells Fargo isn’t alone in expecting a higher pace of inflation.



In its February survey of consumers, the New York Fed found that while respondents held to their one-year outlook for inflation at 3%, their expectations at the three- and five-year horizons accelerated to 2.7% and 2.9% respectively, both well ahead of the central bank’s 2% target.



While increases in gas prices can play an outsize role in monthly fluctuations for the survey, the outlook for gas price increases was actually relatively benign.



An Atlanta Fed measure of “sticky price” inflation held at 4.6% on a 12-month basis in January. The gauge is weighted toward items such as housing and insurance, and Fed officials are hoping that shelter costs decrease through the year, taking some pressure off the cost of living gauges.



On Thursday, the BLS will release the February producer price index, which measures what producers get for their goods and services at the wholesale level. The two indexes will be the last inflation data the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee will see before it meets next week.

107382361-1709644253010-gettyimages-1244106391-AFP_32LT92T

A key U.S. inflation reading is due out Tuesday morning. Here’s what to expect

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="527" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/BC2INHB6KNOFXJ2PWMWZ7RIFQU-820x527.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-465072" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/BC2INHB6KNOFXJ2PWMWZ7RIFQU-820x527.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/BC2INHB6KNOFXJ2PWMWZ7RIFQU-300x193.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/BC2INHB6KNOFXJ2PWMWZ7RIFQU-140x90.jpg 140w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/BC2INHB6KNOFXJ2PWMWZ7RIFQU-768x494.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/BC2INHB6KNOFXJ2PWMWZ7RIFQU-1536x988.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/BC2INHB6KNOFXJ2PWMWZ7RIFQU-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">An African National Congress (ANC) supporter waves a flag during the 112th anniversary celebrations of the founding of the party, at Mbombela Stadium in Mpumalanga province, South Africa, January 13, 2024. REUTERS/Siphiwe Sibeko/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



JOHANNESBURG, March 11 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;South Africa&#8217;s African National Congress (ANC) is likely to lose its parliamentary majority in May for the first time since Nelson Mandela led it to power at the fall of apartheid 30 years ago, a survey showed, opening up the prospect of coalition rule.



South Africans go to polls on May 29 to elect a new National Assembly, which will then choose the next president.



A survey of voter opinion in February by Johannesburg-based think tank The Brenthurst Foundation and the SABI Strategy Group estimated support for the ANC at 39%, down from 41% in October and 44% in November 2022.



The survey was modelled on the 66% turnout of the last general election in 2019, when the ANC got more than 57% of the vote.



A result below 50% in May would mean the former liberation movement would be forced to enter into a coalition with smaller parties to govern the country, a far cry from its best-ever result in 2004 under Thabo Mbeki when it secured almost 70% of the vote.



The ANC&#8217;s image has been tarnished in the past decade by economic stagnation, rising unemployment and repeated corruption scandals involving its top officials.



Its current leader, President Cyril Ramaphosa, has tried to clean up the party&#8217;s reputation and revive the economy since replacing Jacob Zuma in 2018, but has struggled to make much headway.



Rolling power cuts that have become part of daily life are symptomatic of the ANC&#8217;s lacklustre track record on service delivery.



Ramaphosa said last month that the ANC would work to resolve the country&#8217;s challenges should it win decisively at the polls.



Over three-quarters of the Brenthurst/SABI survey&#8217;s respondents said they would be happy with a coalition government.



The survey showed support for the biggest opposition party the Democratic Alliance at 27%, up from 23% in October&#8217;s survey, while support for the far-left Economic Freedom Fighters party fell to 10% from 17% in October.



Support for the newly-formed uMkhonto weSizwe party, which has been endorsed by Zuma, was seen at 13%.



The telephone survey was nationally representative, targeted only registered voters and had a 3% margin of error at the 95% confidence level.



The Brenthurst Foundation was set up by the Oppenheimers, heirs to the De Beers diamond fortune.



(Reporting by Olivia Kumwenda-Mtambo; Editing by Alexander Winning, William Maclean)

African National Congress (ANC) 112th anniversary celebrations

South Africa’s ANC likely to lose parliamentary majority in May vote, survey shows

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="740" height="416" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/104893268-GettyImages-818871806.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-415449" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/104893268-GettyImages-818871806.jpg 740w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/104893268-GettyImages-818871806-300x169.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/104893268-GettyImages-818871806-160x90.jpg 160w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 740px) 100vw, 740px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Bitcoin on a mound of gold.
bodnarchuk | iStock Editorial | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



LONDON, March 11 (Reuters) &#8211; <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/quotes/BTC=X/">Bitcoin BTC</a>= hit a record high on Monday above $71,000, as the surge in the biggest cryptocurrency showed no signs of slowing down.



Britain&#8217;s financial watchdog on Monday became the latest regulator to pave the way for digital asset trading products after saying on Monday it will now permit recognised investment exchanges to launch crypto-backed exchange-traded notes.



Bitcoin rose&nbsp;by as much as&nbsp;4.8% to a record $71,677in European trading, bringing gains for the year so far to 70%.



The&nbsp;world&#8217;s most valuable cryptocurrency&nbsp;has been boosted by a flood of cash into new spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds as well as hopes that the Federal Reserve will soon cut interest rates.



Flows of capital into the 10 largest U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds slowed to a two-week low in the week to March 8, but still reached almost $2 billion, according to LSEG data.



&#8220;Bitcoin has started the week with a surge, dragging the rest of the cryptocurrency space higher with it,&#8221; DailyFX strategist Nick Cawley said.



Supply of bitcoin, which is limited to 21 million tokens, is going to get tighter in April, when the so-called halving event takes place.



Every four years, the rate at which new supply is released into circulation, as well as the reward for crypto miners, is halved, which tends to support the price.



&#8220;News also out earlier that the LSE plans to accept applications for bitcoin and ethereum ETNs in Q2 may have also helped today’s push higher,&#8221; Cawley said.



The UK regulator said these products would be only available for professional investors such as investment firms and credit institutions authorised to operate in financial markets, the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) said in a statement.



The FCA warned crypto exchange traded notes (ETNs) &#8211; bonds issued by financial institutions that track the performance of underlying assets &#8211; pose harm to retail investors.



Nonetheless, demand is picking up across the investment community.



Asset managers&nbsp;1133741ANET&nbsp;now hold the biggest bullish position in bitcoin futures on record, according to weekly data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.



In the week to March 5, the net long position held by asset managers &#8211; usually interpreted as covering holdings of institutional investors such as mutual funds and pension funds &#8211; rose to 15,531 lots, worth $5.5 billion based on the current bitcoin price.



This is more valuable than the long position asset managers hold in sterling, worth $2.78 billion or the bearish position they hold in the Japanese yen against the dollar, worth $1.49 billion, according to LSEG data.



Ether&nbsp;ETH=&nbsp;rose 2.1% to nudge $4,000, around its highest for two years. Speculation that U.S. regulators may approve the listing of spot ether ETFs this year has driven the price up 75% this year.



(Reporting by Harry Robertson and Amanda Cooper; Editing by Louise Heavens)

104893268-GettyImages-818871806

Bitcoin hits record above $71,000 as demand frenzy intensifies

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="461" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/107370056-1707285383185-gettyimages-1868371082-THAILAND_GOLD-820x461.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-465022" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/107370056-1707285383185-gettyimages-1868371082-THAILAND_GOLD-820x461.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/107370056-1707285383185-gettyimages-1868371082-THAILAND_GOLD-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/107370056-1707285383185-gettyimages-1868371082-THAILAND_GOLD-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/107370056-1707285383185-gettyimages-1868371082-THAILAND_GOLD-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/107370056-1707285383185-gettyimages-1868371082-THAILAND_GOLD-1536x864.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/107370056-1707285383185-gettyimages-1868371082-THAILAND_GOLD.jpeg 1920w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">An employee holds one kilogram gold bullion at the YLG Bullion International Co. headquarters in Bangkok, Thailand, on Friday, Dec. 22, 2023. Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



A record-breaking rally for gold may yet continue, particularly as investors position for interest rate cuts — but analysts say silver appears well placed to outshine the yellow metal in the second half of the year.



Spot gold prices on Monday edged higher to $2,178 per ounce, after settling at their highest since 1979 on Thursday last week.



Spot silver prices, meanwhile, were last seen up 0.2% at $24.36 per ounce at 6:24 a.m. London time (1:24 a.m. ET). The contract, which rose over 5% last week, on Thursday settled at its highest level since late December.



Precious metal prices have pushed higher in recent weeks amid growing expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday said that inflation is “not far” from where it needs to be for the central bank to start cutting rates.



Gold, which is typically considered a “safe haven” asset at times of financial uncertainty, has rallied despite high interest rates and a relatively strong U.S. dollar.



“If you look at gold’s correlations, what you can see is that actually despite the narrative of it being a defensive asset, really it oscillates between the two. It can sometimes perform in line with risk and sometimes against risk,” Marcus Garvey, head of commodities strategy at Macquarie, told CNBC’s “Street Signs Europe” on Friday.



“What you need to then get back to is what is the underlying causation of those moves and why is gold reacting in one way or the other, and I think here, really the thing that is setting up gold very well … is expectations of rate cuts. That’s clearly risk positive.”



Garvey said near-term U.S. jobs and inflation data could determine whether gold prices, which he described as “incredibly resilient” so far, push as high as $2,300 or drop back to around $2,100.



“From silver’s perspective, I mean it is sort of round numbers really, you want to get comfortably clear of the $24 level to feel that you have got a bit more room to run. While you are only just north of it, the scope for a correction back down is clearly still a vulnerability,” Garvey said.



“The last thing I might add on silver though, as a dual precious and industrial metal, if we start to see global growth pick up a bit more over the course of this year — which is very much our base case — then I would expect silver to go from a relative underperformer to gold to being a relative outperformer to gold over really the third and fourth quarter of this year.”



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-a-terrific-year-ahead-for-silver"><a></a>A ‘terrific year’ ahead for silver?</h2>



Gold and silver prices have traditionally shown a strong positive correlation, although silver has sometimes been described as the “poorer cousin” of gold.



Earlier in the year, the Silver Institute said in a report that global silver demand was expected to reach 1.2 billion ounces in 2024, hitting its second-highest level on record.



The institute, a non-profit international association composed of various members across the silver industry, told CNBC last month that it expects silver to have a “terrific year,” particularly in terms of demand.



Silver is primarily used for industrial purposes and commonly incorporated in the manufacturing of automobiles, solar panels, jewelry and electronics.



“Here’s what usually happens with silver: it does move with gold, but it moves later,” Randy Smallwood, CEO of Wheaton Precious Metals, told CNBC in early February.



“Gold will shoot up first and then you will see silver take off rapidly. And silver always outperforms. It’s just late.”



— CNBC’s Lee Ying Shan contributed to this report.

107370056-1707285383185-gettyimages-1868371082-THAILAND_GOLD

Gold prices could keep climbing — but analysts expect silver to steal the show before long

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="539" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/ATJS62K74VJT5CFRC7KPK6PTRI-820x539.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-465004" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/ATJS62K74VJT5CFRC7KPK6PTRI-820x539.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/ATJS62K74VJT5CFRC7KPK6PTRI-300x197.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/ATJS62K74VJT5CFRC7KPK6PTRI-137x90.jpg 137w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/ATJS62K74VJT5CFRC7KPK6PTRI-768x505.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/ATJS62K74VJT5CFRC7KPK6PTRI-1536x1011.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/ATJS62K74VJT5CFRC7KPK6PTRI-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Farouk Dalhatu, a tomatoes seller attends to buyer in a community market of Agodo in Lagos, Nigeria March 6, 2024. REUTERS/Seun Sanni/file photo</figcaption></figure>



ABUJA, March 11 Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Blessing Joseph has been weaving bags, sandals and jewellery earning enough money to feed her son and send him to school. But since November, she has fallen on hard times as customers have stopped coming and she and her son routinely go to bed hungry.



She is among millions in Africa&#8217;s largest economy, grappling with the worst cost of living crisis in decades, that has deepened since President Bola Tinubu introduced bold but unpopular economic reforms after he assumed office last May.



Last year, Joseph could easily make 30,000 naira ($18.83) a week but now she will be lucky to get 5,000 naira, she said.



&#8220;People used to place orders. I&#8217;ll design for them, sometimes even (for) weddings I&#8217;ll make souvenirs for them, but now those orders are not coming,&#8221; said the 29-year-old Abuja resident.



&#8220;It has been very, very difficult, especially that I have a son and he needs to go to school, he needs to eat.&#8221;



Tinubu inherited an economy that was already struggling with record debt, high unemployment, low oil output, subsidies that drained government finances and power shortages that have crimped growth.



Nigeria imports food and fuel and was buffeted by high global prices due to the Russia-Ukraine war, just as it had exited a COVID-19 induced recession in 2020.



Tinubu, who campaigned on a &#8220;Renewed Hope&#8221; slogan, removed a costly petrol subsidy and foreign currency controls, in an effort to improve government finances, restore credibility with investors and kick-start the economy.



But inflation has soared to its highest in three decades and the naira currency is slumping to record lows, pressured by acute dollar shortages. Prices of food, cooking gas, medicines, fuel, and public transport have shot up, squeezing household budgets.



&#8220;With about 8 percent of Nigerians deemed food insecure, addressing rising food insecurity is the immediate policy priority,&#8221; the International Monetary Fund said on March 4. after a staff visit.



Nigeria&#8217;s problems have also rippled through company boardrooms.



Foreign companies like Procter &amp; Gamble will stop manufacturing in Nigeria, while drug makers GSK Plc and Bayer AG will contract third parties to distribute their products, in part due to tough operating conditions and the naira slump.



Africa&#8217;s biggest telecoms operator MTN GroupMTNJ.J posted a big fall in full-year profit citing naira devaluation, which also prompted soap maker PZ Cussons PlcPZC.L to issue a profit warning.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-food-price-surge">FOOD PRICE SURGE</h2>



At Agodo market in Lagos, tomato seller Farouk Dalhatu has just served his first customer in eight hours. The market is unusually quiet for the time of day when there is often a cacophonous din of traders and customers haggling over prices.



A basket of tomatoes now costs 55,000 naira &#8211; about double the national minimum wage &#8211; up from 12,000 naira in December. That has forced many of Dalhatu&#8217;s friends to quit the business.



&#8220;They are just trying to find what they can eat now and not do the tomatoes business,&#8221; he said, pointing to several empty stalls.



Escalating food prices are the major driver of inflation.



Widespread insecurity in food growing areas &#8211; including abduction for ransom by armed gangs, a long-running Islamist insurgency and farmer-herder clashes &#8211; is adding to the woes by keeping many farmers away from their fields.



&#8220;We have an emergency on our hands in terms of the social consequences of this reform, in terms of this food insecurity,&#8221; said Muda Yusuf, CEO at business advocacy firm Promotion of Private Enterprise, referring to the currency and fuel subsidy reforms.



Labour unions led some protests last month and have threatened to shut down the country to demand a tenfold rise in the minimum wage.



In response, the government on Thursday started national consultations on a new monthly minimum wage, which has been pegged at 30,000 naira since 2019.



A presidency spokesman declined to comment, but Tinubu&#8217;s administration has announced handouts of cash, grains, fertiliser and seed to vulnerable groups.



Unions say this is not enough and that focus should be on &#8220;substantive issues&#8221; that have been under discussion with the government since June 2023.



&#8220;These include critical matters such as wage increases, social welfare programs, infrastructure development, and the revitalisation of key sectors such as education and healthcare,&#8221; the Nigeria Labour Congress said in a statement.



For Joseph in Abuja, a thriving business and providing for her son is all she wants.



&#8220;I am just thinking about what he will eat if he comes back (from school),&#8221; she said while shuffling through empty pots.



($1 = 1,593.3400 naira)



(Reorting by Abraham Achirga in Abuja, Angela Ukomadu, Seun Sanni and MacDonald Dzirutwe in Lagos, Graphics by Libby George, Editing by Jane Merriman)

FILE PHOTO: An aerial view shows traffic and houses in Libreville

Hard times in Nigeria as reforms deepen cost of living crisis

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/107363787-17061085342022-09-01t184946z_946092228_rc2f8w90zj6x_rtrmadp_0_usa-economy-820x547.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-464081" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/107363787-17061085342022-09-01t184946z_946092228_rc2f8w90zj6x_rtrmadp_0_usa-economy-820x547.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/107363787-17061085342022-09-01t184946z_946092228_rc2f8w90zj6x_rtrmadp_0_usa-economy-300x200.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/107363787-17061085342022-09-01t184946z_946092228_rc2f8w90zj6x_rtrmadp_0_usa-economy-135x90.jpeg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/107363787-17061085342022-09-01t184946z_946092228_rc2f8w90zj6x_rtrmadp_0_usa-economy-768x512.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/107363787-17061085342022-09-01t184946z_946092228_rc2f8w90zj6x_rtrmadp_0_usa-economy-1536x1024.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/107363787-17061085342022-09-01t184946z_946092228_rc2f8w90zj6x_rtrmadp_0_usa-economy-scaled.jpeg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Photo: via CNBC</figcaption></figure>



Job creation topped expectations in February, but the unemployment rate moved higher and employment growth from the previous two months wasn’t near as hot as initially reported.



Nonfarm payrolls increased by 275,000 for the month while the jobless rate moved higher to 3.9%, the Labor Department reported Friday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for payroll growth of 198,000, a step slower from the downwardly revised gain of 229,000 in January. The December gain also was revised down to 290,000 from 333,000.



The jobless level increased even though the labor force participation rate held steady at 62.5%.



Average hourly earnings, watched closely as an inflation indicator, showed a slightly less than expected increase for the month and a deceleration from a year ago. Wages rose just 0.1% on the month, one-tenth of a percentage point below the estimate, and were up 4.3% from a year ago, below the 4.5% gain in January and slightly below the 4.4% estimate.



Markets showed little reaction to the news, with futures tied to the major averages around flat. Treasury yields, however, were sharply lower.



“It’s got literally a data point for every view on their spectrum,” Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, said of the report.



Job creation skewed toward part-time positions. Full-time jobs decreased by 187,000 while part-time employment rose by 51,000, according to the household survey. That count is used to calculate the unemployment rate and showed a decline of 184,000 in total employment.



From a sector standpoint, health care led with 67,000 new jobs. Government again was a big contributor, with 52,000, while restaurants and bars added 42,000 and social assistance increased by 24,000. Other gainers included construction (23,000), transportation and warehousing (20,000) and retail (19,000).



This is breaking news. Please check back here for updates.

107363787-17061085342022-09-01t184946z_946092228_rc2f8w90zj6x_rtrmadp_0_usa-economy

U.S. job growth totaled 275,000 in February but unemployment rate rises to 3.9%

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="562" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/N3IOJDZWQZL2TF6OEGJSEQTQFU-820x562.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-464028" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/N3IOJDZWQZL2TF6OEGJSEQTQFU-820x562.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/N3IOJDZWQZL2TF6OEGJSEQTQFU-300x206.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/N3IOJDZWQZL2TF6OEGJSEQTQFU-131x90.jpg 131w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/N3IOJDZWQZL2TF6OEGJSEQTQFU-768x526.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/N3IOJDZWQZL2TF6OEGJSEQTQFU-1536x1053.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/N3IOJDZWQZL2TF6OEGJSEQTQFU-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: U.S. Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo speaks at the Royal United Services Institute in London, Britain, October 27, 2023. REUTERS/Hannah McKay/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



WASHINGTON, March 8 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;U.S. Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo will visit South Africa next week, a Treasury spokesperson told Reuters, where he will seek to advance the economic relationship between the two countries even as ties have been marked by tensions.



The spokesperson said Adeyemo will discuss issues such as illicit finance, clean energy transition, investment in young entrepreneurs and leaders, work against wildlife trafficking and U.S. sanctions in his visit, first reported by Reuters.



He will meet with government counterparts, business leaders and students, among others, on the trip from March 11-15, the spokesperson said. The trip will include visits to Cape Town, Pretoria and Johannesburg.



The trip comes as relations between Washington and Africa’s most industrialized economy have been marked by tensions over the past two years.



In the wake of Russia&#8217;s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, U.S. and European officials have attempted to rally opposition to Moscow&#8217;s actions among African governments. Most African states, however, have shied away from taking sides.



Despite Pretoria&#8217;s declared neutrality, perceived close ties between Russia and South Africa, an important U.S. trading partner in Africa, have ruffled feathers in Washington.



The United States and its allies have imposed rafts of sanctions on Moscow since its invasion of Ukraine, including against its military industrial base, financial sector and Russian President Vladimir Putin.



Adeyemo will discuss sanctions while on the trip, the spokesperson said, including recent changes to the Zimbabwe sanctions program.



Further straining relations, South Africa has been among the most outspoken critics of Israel&#8217;s offensive in Gaza.



In a case it has brought before the International Court of Justice, South Africa has accused Israel of state-led genocide in the Palestinian enclave, a charge Washington has denounced as baseless.



While in South Africa, Adeyemo will meet with government counterparts and on Thursday will attend an interagency meeting on countering illicit finance, the spokesperson said.



He will also attend a roundtable with government officials, the private sector and NGO participants on work against wildlife trafficking.



The U.S. Treasury Department and South Africa&#8217;s National Treasury last year agreed to form a task force to step up efforts to halt illegal trade in wildlife, announced by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen in a visit to the country.



The group, which is intended to boost information sharing by the countries&#8217; financial intelligence units and to strengthen controls to combat money laundering and terrorist financing, held its first meeting in June.



Adeyemo will also visit with students, participants in a youth employment accelerator, entrepreneurs and business leaders as he seeks to focus on investment in the next generation of South Africans, the spokesperson said.



The spokesperson said that engagement with South Africa&#8217;s National Treasury is important to Washington, with the U.S. standing as the country&#8217;s third-largest trading partner, and that Adeyemo&#8217;s visit is intended to deepen economic integration.



(Reporting by Daphne Psaledakis and Joe Bavier; Editing by Michael Perry)

FILE PHOTO: U.S. Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo speaks at the Royal United Services Institute in London

US Treasury’s No. 2 to visit South Africa next week

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="462" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/102851129-oilandgold-820x462.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-458020" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/102851129-oilandgold-820x462.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/102851129-oilandgold-300x169.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/102851129-oilandgold-160x90.jpg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/102851129-oilandgold-768x432.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/102851129-oilandgold.jpg 929w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">(L) Oil pumpjacks and (R) gold bars
Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



Gold prices could soar to $3,000 per ounce, and oil to $100 per barrel within the next 12 to 18 months subject to any one of three possible catalysts, according to Citi.



Gold, which is currently trading at $2,016, could surge by about 50%, if central banks sharply ramp up purchases of the yellow metal, a possible stagflation, or in case of a deep global recession, Aakash Doshi, Citi’s North America head of commodities research, told CNBC.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-central-bank-s-gold-rush"><a></a>Central bank’s gold rush</h2>



“The most likely wildcard path to $3,000/oz gold is a rapid acceleration of an existing but slow-moving trend:&nbsp;de-dollarization across Emerging Markets central banks&nbsp;that in turn leads to a crisis of confidence in the U.S. dollar,” Citi analysts including Doshi wrote in a recent note.



That could double central bank’s gold purchases, challenging jewelry consumption as the largest driver of gold demand, Doshi elaborated.&nbsp;



Central banks’ gold purchases have “accelerated to record levels” in recent years, as they seek to diversify reserves and reduce credit risk, Citi said. China and Russian central banks are leading gold purchases, with India, Turkey, and Brazil, also increasing&nbsp;bullion buying.



The world’s central banks have sustained two successive years of more than 1,000 tons of net gold purchases, the&nbsp;World Gold Council reported in January.



“If that goes again [to] double very quickly to 2,000 tons, we think that would be actually very bullish for gold,” Doshi told CNBC via phone.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">A global recession?</h2>



Another trigger that could drive gold to $3,000 would be a “deep global recession” that could spur the U.S. Federal Reserves to cut rates rapidly.



“That means the brakes have been cut, not to 3%, but to 1% or lower – that will take us to $3,000,” Doshi said, noting that this is a low probability scenario.



Gold prices tend to share an inverse relationship with interest rates. As interest rates dip, gold becomes more appealing compared to fixed-income assets such as bonds, which would yield weaker returns in a low interest rate environment.&nbsp;



The Fed benchmark interest rate has been between&nbsp;5.25% and 5.5%&nbsp;since July 2023, the highest since January 2001 when it shot to 6% following the dot-com bubble burst. Markets expect&nbsp;the Fed to cut&nbsp;rates in May or June.



Stagflation — an increasing inflation rate, a slowing economic growth and rising unemployment — could be another trigger, though Doshi said there’s a “very low probability” of such a scenario.



Gold is perceived as a safe haven and tends to perform well in periods of economic uncertainty when investors move away from the riskier assets such as equities.



These three potential triggers aside, Citi maintains that their base case for bullion is $2,150 in the second half of 2024, and the price of gold to average a little over $2,000 in the first half. A new record could be reached towards the end of 2024, Doshi added.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a></a>Oil at $100?</h2>



Another wildcard scenario highlighted in Citi’s report was for oil prices to hit triple digits again.



The catalysts for oil to hit $100 per barrel include higher geopolitical risks, deeper OPEC+ cuts and supply disruptions from key oil producing regions, Doshi said.&nbsp;



The ongoing Israel-Hamas war has not hit oil production or exports, with the only significant impact being the Houthi attacks from Yemen on oil tankers and other ships traversing the Red Sea.



Major oil producer Iraq has been impacted by the conflict and any further escalation could hurt other major OPEC+ suppliers in the region, Citi said.



Recent developments show that tensions have been rising on the border between Israel and Lebanon, raising fears that the war in Gaza could spread elsewhere in the Middle East.



Doshi said Iraq, Iran, Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela are vulnerable to supply disruptions, with steeper U.S. sanctions policy on Iran and Venezuela potentially on the cards.&nbsp;



Other geopolitical risks such as Russian oil supplies, should Ukraine attack Russian refineries with drones, cannot be ruled out, Citi’s analysts wrote. Doshi maintained that their base case for oil stands at around $75 per barrel for the year.



Global benchmark Brent’s&nbsp;April futures were trading at $83.56 a barrel, while the U.S.&nbsp;West Texas Intermediate&nbsp;March futures stood at $79.13 per barrel.

102851129-oilandgold

Gold at $3,000 and oil at $100 by 2025? Citi analysts don’t rule it out

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="461" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/1x-1-2-820x461.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-400641" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/1x-1-2-820x461.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/1x-1-2-300x169.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/1x-1-2-768x432.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/1x-1-2-1536x864.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/1x-1-2-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">A collection of mixed denomination South African rand coins sit in an arranged photo in Johannesburg, South Africa, on Thursday, June 22, 2017. South Africas inflation rate rose for the first time this year in May after food-price growth quickened from the slowest pace since December 2015. Photographer: Waldo Swiegers/Bloomberg via Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



JOHANNESBURG, March 8 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;South Africa&#8217;s rand was trading at its strongest level in over a month early on Friday, after a week of gains supported by surging gold prices.



At 0640 GMT, the rand traded at 18.6850 against the U.S. dollar&nbsp;ZAR=D3, about the same as its previous close. It was the strongest level seen since early February.



&#8220;The rand has enjoyed a stellar week so far, capitalising on some appreciation that began last week,&#8221; said ETM Analytics in a research note.



&#8220;The USD-ZAR has cracked below some key technical support and generated momentum of its own, but it is unclear whether the momentum is about to fade,&#8221; it added.



The rand has been boosted by the price of gold, one of South Africa&#8217;s key exports, which is hovering near a historic high.



But local economic data releases this week were broadly negative, with the current account deficit widening more than expected and net foreign reserves falling in February.



South Africa&#8217;s public enterprises minister Pravin Gordhan told Reuters on Friday that he would retire after this year&#8217;s general elections in May.



The poor performance of state-owned enterprises such as power utility Eskom and logistics firm Transnet has been a key factor in dragging down South Africa&#8217;s economic growth.



South Africa&#8217;s benchmark 2030 government bond&nbsp;ZAR2030=&nbsp;was marginally stronger in early deals, with the yield down 1 basis point to 10.055%.



(Reporting by Nellie Peyton; Editing by Mark Potter)

South African Economy As Inflation Rate Rises For First Time In 2017

South African rand set to end week on stronger note

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="461" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/107384081-1709831185690-gettyimages-2058827167-powell_banking_402_030724-820x461.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-463959" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/107384081-1709831185690-gettyimages-2058827167-powell_banking_402_030724-820x461.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/107384081-1709831185690-gettyimages-2058827167-powell_banking_402_030724-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/107384081-1709831185690-gettyimages-2058827167-powell_banking_402_030724-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/107384081-1709831185690-gettyimages-2058827167-powell_banking_402_030724-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/107384081-1709831185690-gettyimages-2058827167-powell_banking_402_030724-1536x864.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/107384081-1709831185690-gettyimages-2058827167-powell_banking_402_030724.jpeg 1600w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testifies during the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee hearing titled “The Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress,” in Dirksen Building on Thursday, March 7, 2024. Tom Williams | Cq-roll Call, Inc. | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday indicated that interest rate cuts may not be too far off if inflation signals cooperate.



In remarks to the Senate Banking Committee, the central bank leader didn’t provide a precise timetable of when he sees easing happening, but noted that the day could be coming soon.



“We’re waiting to become more confident that inflation is moving sustainably at 2%. When we do get that confidence, and we’re not far from it, it’ll be appropriate to begin to dial back the level of restriction,” Powell said in response to a question about rates and inflation. He said the cuts would be so the Fed doesn’t “drive the economy into recession rather than normalizing policy as the economy gets back to normal.”



Powell spoke at a time when financial markets have swung considerably in their expectations on Fed policy.



At the beginning of the year, futures traders were betting the Fed would start in March and keep going until it had cut six or seven times this year. The outlook now is for the first cut to come in June, with four reductions totaling a full percentage point by the end of 2024.



Inflation data recently has indicated the pace of price increases is continuing to slow, though the consumer price index rattled markets when it came in higher than expected for January. Still, Powell noted&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/06/powell-reinforces-position-that-the-fed-is-not-ready-to-start-cutting-interest-rates.html">in congressional testimony this week</a>&nbsp;that inflation is progressing lower, though not at the point yet where the Fed is ready to cut.



“I think we’re in the right place,” Powell said of the current policy stance.

107384081-1709831185690-gettyimages-2058827167-powell_banking_402_030724

Powell says the Fed is ‘not far’ from the point of cutting interest rates

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="509" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/4O2DETTBGVMQDJTFUHDOCNWL3A-820x509.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-463714" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/4O2DETTBGVMQDJTFUHDOCNWL3A-820x509.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/4O2DETTBGVMQDJTFUHDOCNWL3A-300x186.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/4O2DETTBGVMQDJTFUHDOCNWL3A-145x90.jpg 145w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/4O2DETTBGVMQDJTFUHDOCNWL3A-768x477.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/4O2DETTBGVMQDJTFUHDOCNWL3A-1536x954.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/4O2DETTBGVMQDJTFUHDOCNWL3A-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: The logo of South Africa&#8217;s largest insurer Sanlam is seen outside the company&#8217;s headquarters in Cape Town, South Africa March 12, 2020. REUTERS/Mike Hutchings/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



Sanlam, Africa’s biggest insurer reported record 2023 earnings, powered by acquisitions, India and new business growth in its South African market.



The Cape Town-based insurer said headline earnings per share advanced 48 percent as the life insurance portfolio grew 19 percent, general insurance jumped 21 percent and a 14 percent jump in investment management earnings after the acquisition of ABSA Group’s asset management unit.



“This set of results reflects our focus over the past three years on improving the performance of existing operations, while investing in the group’s long‑term growth path,’’ CEO Paul Hanratty said in a statement. &#8220;We remain optimistic about future growth and performance, with the group being well positioned to serve our customers across all our operations.”



Sanlam is benefitting from a diversification drive that has seen it expand its presence to North Africa through the acquisition of Saham, the purchase of banking group ABSA Group’s asset management unit and the creation of SanlamAllianz, with a presence in 27 countries. Last month, the company said it agreed to buy Assupol, a 110-year-old insurer based in Pretoria.



Hanratty said the general insurance division was one of the star performers in 2023, driven by the Sanlam Allianz joint venture, lifting earnings up by 25 percent. The company’s Indian operation also starred, he said, praising what he called the country’s &#8220;well-managed entrepreneurial economy.’’ ABSA’s former asset management unit had also been integrated faster than expected, he said.



Despite the challenging economic environment in South Africa and across the continent, Hanratty said Sanlam was thriving as people prioritized savings and investments. While the African countries continued to fiscal constraints and volatility in its currencies, opportunities for growth remain, he said. &#8220;India, of course, also shooting the lights out, growing and highly profitable. We think it will continue to run hard,’’ Hanratty told CNBC Africa. &#8220;So we&#8217;re very excited about what&#8217;s happening. And despite our consumers being under pressure across the African continent, I think the fact that we managed to grow our new business is really great.’’



India’s economy grew 8.4 percent in last quarter of 2023, faster than analysts’ estimates, buoyed by strong private consumption and upbeat manufacturing and construction activity. Reuters estimates had forecast growth in the October to December period at 6.6%.

FILE PHOTO: The logo of South Africa’s largest insurer Sanlam is seen outside the company’s headquarters in Cape Town

Sanlam reports record 2023 earnings on acquisitions, India growth spurt

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Stock-value-rising-and-falling-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-404443" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Stock-value-rising-and-falling-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Stock-value-rising-and-falling-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Stock-value-rising-and-falling-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Stock-value-rising-and-falling.jpg 1254w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Macro view of a screen of trading terminal with abstract financial graph and digits. Trading and forex concept. 3D Rendering</figcaption></figure>



March 7 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Most currencies in Europe&#8217;s emerging markets traded in a tight range on Thursday as investors held back from making bets ahead of the European Central Bank&#8217;s latest monetary policy verdict, while a broader gauge of stocks nudged higher.



By 0908 GMT, MSCI&#8217;s index for emerging market stocks&nbsp;.MSCIEF&nbsp;gained 0.2%, touching fresh seven-month highs, while a gauge for currencies&nbsp;.MIEM00000CUS&nbsp;advanced 0.1%.



Equities in Taiwan&nbsp;.TWII&nbsp;closed 1.0% higher, and shares in South Korea&nbsp;.KS11&nbsp;gained 0.2%.



Thursday&#8217;s big-ticket event for global markets is the ECB&#8217;s interest rate decision at 1315 GMT. The bank is expected to keep rates at a record high of 4%. Its president, Christine Lagarde, will hold a press conference 30 minutes after the announcement.



&#8220;It may be too soon to change policy tack, but markets may get carried away with lower rates if Lagarde sounds reassuring on wages and the inflection point last quarter,&#8221; Societe Generale strategists wrote.



Poland&#8217;s zloty EURPLN= weakened 0.1% against the euro a day after its central bank lowered its inflation forecasts for 2024 and 2025 and kept interest rates unchanged at 5.75%.



The Hungarian forint&nbsp;EURHUF=&nbsp;lagged local peers, down 0.5%, while the Czech crown&nbsp;EURCZK=&nbsp;was flat at 25.352 per euro.



Stocks were off to a mixed start with Poland&#8217;s WIG 20&nbsp;.WIG20&nbsp;down 1.5%, while Turkish shares&nbsp;.XU100&nbsp;gained 1.7%.



Poland&#8217;s biggest lender PKO BPPKO.WA fell 2.6% after posting a 60% drop in fourth-quarter net profit.



South Africa&#8217;s rand&nbsp;ZAR=&nbsp;was flat against the dollar after rising for five straight sessions, supported by higher gold prices and a softer U.S. dollar.&nbsp;GOL/



The dollar index&nbsp;=USD&nbsp;remained on the back foot as traders backed the idea that the Federal Reserve could be looking to reduce lending costs this year despite some upside surprises on the inflation front.&nbsp;FRX/



Elsewhere, Malaysia&#8217;s ringgit MYR= strengthened 0.6% against the dollar after the Asian country&#8217;s central bank kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged for the fifth straight meeting.



Meanwhile, bets on lower interest rates in the United States, even with a cloudy outlook, were behind a fourth consecutive month of overall foreign net flows to emerging markets in February, the Institute of International Finance said.



(Reporting by Shashwat Chauhan in Bengaluru; Editing by Ros Russell)

Macro view of a screen of trading terminal with abstract financial graph and digits. Trading and forex concept. 3D Rendering

Most currencies hold steady ahead of ECB rate decision, stocks edge higher

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="461" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/107383366-1709744654782-gettyimages-2063429688-_s2_1412_35lefe16-820x461.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-463622" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/107383366-1709744654782-gettyimages-2063429688-_s2_1412_35lefe16-820x461.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/107383366-1709744654782-gettyimages-2063429688-_s2_1412_35lefe16-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/107383366-1709744654782-gettyimages-2063429688-_s2_1412_35lefe16-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/107383366-1709744654782-gettyimages-2063429688-_s2_1412_35lefe16-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/107383366-1709744654782-gettyimages-2063429688-_s2_1412_35lefe16-1536x864.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/107383366-1709744654782-gettyimages-2063429688-_s2_1412_35lefe16.jpeg 1600w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Photo: via CNBC</figcaption></figure>



Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday reiterated that he expects interest rates to start coming down this year, but is not ready yet to say when.



In prepared remarks for congressionally mandated appearances on Capitol Hill Wednesday and Thursday, Powell said policymakers remain attentive to the risks that inflation poses and don’t want to ease up too quickly.



“In considering any adjustments to the target range for the policy rate, we will carefully assess the incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks,” he said. “The Committee does not expect that it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent.”



Those remarks were taken verbatim from the Federal Open Market Committee’s statement following its most recent meeting, which concluded Jan. 31.



During the question-and-answer session with House Financial Services Committee members, Powell said he needs “see a little bit more data” before moving on rates.



“We think because of the strength in the economy and the strength in the labor market and the progress we’ve made, we can approach that step carefully and thoughtfully and with greater confidence,” he said. “When we reach that confidence, the expectation is we will do so sometime this year. We can then begin dialing back that restriction on our policy.”



Stocks posted gains as Powell spoke, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up more than 250 points heading into midday. Treasurys yields mostly moved lower as the benchmark 10-year note was off about 0.3 percentage point to 4.11%.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-rates-likely-at-peak"><a></a>Rates likely at peak</h2>



In total, the speech broke no new ground on monetary policy or the Fed’s economic outlook. However, the comments indicated that officials remain concerned about not losing the progress made against inflation and will make decisions based on incoming data rather than a preset course.



“We believe that our policy rate is likely at its peak for this tightening cycle. If the economy evolves broadly as expected, it will likely be appropriate to begin dialing back policy restraint at some point this year,” Powell said in the comments. “But the economic outlook is uncertain, and ongoing progress toward our 2 percent inflation objective is not assured.”



He noted again that lowering rates too quickly risks losing the battle against inflation and likely having to raise rates further, while waiting too long poses danger to economic growth.



Markets had been widely expecting the Fed to ease up aggressively following 11 interest rate hikes totaling 5.25 percentage points that spanned March 2022 to July 2023.



In recent weeks, though, those expectations have changed following multiple cautionary statements from Fed officials. The January meeting helped cement the Fed’s cautious approach, with the statement explicitly saying rate cuts aren’t coming yet despite the market’s outlook.



As things stand, futures market pricing points to the first cut coming in June, part of four reductions this year totaling a full percentage point. That’s slightly more aggressive than the Fed’s outlook in December for three cuts.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-inflation-easing"><a></a>Inflation easing</h2>



Despite the resistance to move forward on cuts, Powell noted the movement the Fed has made toward its goal of 2% inflation without tipping over the labor market and broader economy.



“The economy has made considerable progress toward these objectives over the past year,” Powell said. He noted that inflation has “eased substantially” as “the risks to achieving our employment and inflation goals have been moving into better balance.”



Inflation as judged by the Fed’s preferred gauge is currently running at a 2.4% annual rate — 2.8% when stripping out food and energy in the core reading that the Fed prefers to focus on. The numbers reflect “a notable slowing from 2022 that was widespread across both goods and services prices.”



“Longer-term inflation expectations appear to have remained well anchored, as reflected by a broad range of surveys of households, businesses, and forecasters, as well as measures from financial markets,” he added.



Powell is likely to face a variety of questions during his two-day visit to Capitol Hill, which started with an appearance Wednesday before the House Financial Services Committee and concludes Thursday before the Senate Banking Committee.



Questioning largely centered around Powell’s views on inflation and rates.



Republicans on the committee also grilled Powell on the so-called Basel III Endgame revisions to bank capital requirements. Powell said he is part of a group on the Board of Governors that has “real concerns, very specific concerns” about the proposals and said the withdrawal of the plan “is a live option.” Some of the earlier market gains Wednesday faded following reports that New York Community Bank is looking to raise equity capital, raising fresh concerns about the state of midsize U.S. banks.



Though the Fed tries to stay out of politics, the presidential election year poses particular challenges.



Former President Donald Trump, the likely Republican nominee, was a fierce critic of Powell and his colleagues while in office. Some congressional Democrats, led by Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, have called on the Fed to reduce rates as pressure builds on lower-income families to make ends meet.



Rep. Ayanna Pressley, D-Ohio, joined the Democrats in calling for lower rates. During his term, Democrats frequently criticized Trump for trying to cajole the Fed into cutting.



“Housing inflation and housing affordability [is] the No. 1 issue I’m hearing about from my constituents,” Pressley said. “Families in my district and throughout this country need relief now. I truly hope the Fed will listen to them and cut interest rates.”

107383366-1709744654782-gettyimages-2063429688-_s2_1412_35lefe16

Powell reinforces position that the Fed is not ready to start cutting interest rates

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/WJJQC2DZSRPNJLG46HWROZZG7M-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-463604" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/WJJQC2DZSRPNJLG46HWROZZG7M-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/WJJQC2DZSRPNJLG46HWROZZG7M-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/WJJQC2DZSRPNJLG46HWROZZG7M-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/WJJQC2DZSRPNJLG46HWROZZG7M-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/WJJQC2DZSRPNJLG46HWROZZG7M-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/WJJQC2DZSRPNJLG46HWROZZG7M-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: Senegal&#8217;s President Macky Sall in Brussels, Belgium October 25, 2023. REUTERS/Johanna Geron/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



DAKAR, March 6 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Senegalese President Macky Sall has scheduled a delayed presidential election for March 24, the government said on Wednesday after a top court ruled that a proposal to hold the vote after his mandate expires on April 2 was unconstitutional.



The announcement caps a dramatic evening that saw Sall dissolve the government and replace Prime Minister Amadou Ba with Interior Minister Sidiki Kaba so that Ba, the ruling coalition&#8217;s presidential candidate, can focus on his electoral campaign, the presidency said.



Earlier the Constitutional Council ruled that a proposal from a national dialogue commission for the vote to be held on June 2 was not in line with the constitution.



&#8220;The President of the Republic informed the Council of Ministers that the date of the presidential election had been set for Sunday 24 March,&#8221; the council of ministers said soon after in a statement.



The decision is the latest twist in a month-old electoral crisis that has sparked violent unrest and warnings from Senegal&#8217;s international allies that its reputation as one of coup-hit West Africa&#8217;s more stable democracies is under threat.



The&nbsp;new date was welcomed by opposition presidential candidate Anta Babacar, who was among the majority of the 19 contenders in the race who were pushing for the vote to be held as soon as possible.



&#8220;I think this is very good news. This is the reason why we were fighting for these past weeks and days, because we knew that it was actually possible to hold these elections before April 2,&#8221; she told Reuters.



The turmoil originates in a thwarted bid by the authorities&nbsp;in early February&nbsp;to postpone the Feb. 25 poll to December. Sall cited concerns about electoral disputes for the move, but some of the opposition said it amounted to an attempted institutional coup.



Wednesday evening also saw parliament approve an amnesty law proposed by Sall in a bid to ease tensions&nbsp;as he navigates&nbsp;the&nbsp;standoff with the opposition.



The law could grant amnesty to hundreds of protesters and opposition members accused of crimes relating to anti-government protests in the last three years, but it would also likely let security forces off the hook for excessive and sometimes deadly use of force against protesters, Human Rights Watch (HRW) warned on Tuesday.



At least 40 people have been killed during violent clashes since March 2021 with no accountability, according to HRW.



Much of the political unrest was triggered by concerns that Sall was trying to muzzle his opponents and hold onto power past the end of his mandate, which he has denied.



A fresh round of protests broke out last month after he announced the plan to postpone the vote.



(Additional reporting by Portia Crowe, Sofia Christensen, Ngouda Dione; Writing by Sofia Christensen and Alessandra Prentice, Editing by William Maclean and Diane Craft)

FILE PHOTO: Senegal’s President Macky Sall

Senegal schedules presidential election for March 24

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/GettyImages-1840408269-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-463361" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/GettyImages-1840408269-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/GettyImages-1840408269-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/GettyImages-1840408269-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/GettyImages-1840408269-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/GettyImages-1840408269-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/GettyImages-1840408269-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">The Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO) headquarters in Dakar, Senegal, on Saturday, Nov. 25, 2023. West Africa&#8217;s growth slowed to 3.7% this year from 3.9% in 2022 due to the global economy and higher inflation, the Economic Community of West African States said. Photographer: Damian Lemaski/Bloomberg via Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



DAKAR, March 6 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;West Africa&#8217;s&nbsp;regional central&nbsp;bank kept its main lending rate unchanged at 3.5% in a decision announced on Wednesday.



&#8220;This decision &#8230; takes into account the reduction in inflationary pressures and the improvement of the union&#8217;s external accounts,&#8221; the bank said in a statement following a Monetary Policy Committee meeting in Dakar.



The Central Bank of West African States (the BCEAO) covers Benin, Burkina Faso, Ivory Coast, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, Niger, Senegal and Togo.



This is a developing story&#8230;



(Reporting by Diadie Ba; Writing by Nellie Peyton; Editing by Alexander Winning)

featured

U.S. consumer prices rose 0.4% in February and 3.2% from a year ago

Stocks scale seven-month high, FX stalls with US inflation data in focus

A key U.S. inflation reading is due out Tuesday morning. Here’s what to expect

South Africa’s ANC likely to lose parliamentary majority in May vote, survey shows

Bitcoin hits record above $71,000 as demand frenzy intensifies

Gold prices could keep climbing — but analysts expect silver to steal the show before long

Hard times in Nigeria as reforms deepen cost of living crisis

U.S. job growth totaled 275,000 in February but unemployment rate rises to 3.9%

US Treasury’s No. 2 to visit South Africa next week

Gold at $3,000 and oil at $100 by 2025? Citi analysts don’t rule it out

South African rand set to end week on stronger note

Powell says the Fed is ‘not far’ from the point of cutting interest rates

Sanlam reports record 2023 earnings on acquisitions, India growth spurt

Most currencies hold steady ahead of ECB rate decision, stocks edge higher

Powell reinforces position that the Fed is not ready to start cutting interest rates

Senegal schedules presidential election for March 24

West Africa central bank leaves main lending rate at 3.5%

News Tips

Advertise With Us

featured

U.S. consumer prices rose 0.4% in February and 3.2% from a year ago

Stocks scale seven-month high, FX stalls with US inflation data in focus

A key U.S. inflation reading is due out Tuesday morning. Here’s what to expect

South Africa’s ANC likely to lose parliamentary majority in May vote, survey shows

Bitcoin hits record above $71,000 as demand frenzy intensifies

Gold prices could keep climbing — but analysts expect silver to steal the show before long

Hard times in Nigeria as reforms deepen cost of living crisis

U.S. job growth totaled 275,000 in February but unemployment rate rises to 3.9%

US Treasury’s No. 2 to visit South Africa next week

Gold at $3,000 and oil at $100 by 2025? Citi analysts don’t rule it out

South African rand set to end week on stronger note

Powell says the Fed is ‘not far’ from the point of cutting interest rates

Sanlam reports record 2023 earnings on acquisitions, India growth spurt

Most currencies hold steady ahead of ECB rate decision, stocks edge higher

Powell reinforces position that the Fed is not ready to start cutting interest rates

Senegal schedules presidential election for March 24

West Africa central bank leaves main lending rate at 3.5%

News Tips

Advertise With Us

Newsletters