<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="550" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/JEHKYSAZOBOINHK3G56MNY7VOM-820x550.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-444999" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/JEHKYSAZOBOINHK3G56MNY7VOM-820x550.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/JEHKYSAZOBOINHK3G56MNY7VOM-300x201.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/JEHKYSAZOBOINHK3G56MNY7VOM-134x90.jpg 134w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/JEHKYSAZOBOINHK3G56MNY7VOM-768x515.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/JEHKYSAZOBOINHK3G56MNY7VOM-1536x1031.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/JEHKYSAZOBOINHK3G56MNY7VOM-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: The flag alley at the United Nations European headquarters is seen during the Human Rights Council in Geneva, Switzerland, September 11, 2023. REUTERS/Denis Balibouse/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



GENEVA, Jan 10 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Morocco won a vote on Wednesday to lead the United Nations Human Rights Council after a heated showdown with South Africa, which said Rabat&#8217;s human rights record made it unfit to preside over the body.



The Moroccan candidate, Ambassador Omar Zniber, received 30 votes, and his South African opponent, Ambassador Mxolisi Nkosi, secured 17 in a secret ballot in Geneva.



Prior to the vote, Nkosi told Reuters that Morocco was the &#8220;antithesis of what the council stands for&#8221; and said the country&#8217;s election would undermine the body&#8217;s credibility.



Morocco, in turn, accused South Africa and some other African states of undermining its efforts to hold the position, a prestigious but mostly symbolic post.



&#8220;The Kingdom&#8217;s election, supported by a large number of countries around the globe in spite of Algeria&#8217;s and South Africa&#8217;s efforts to counter it, demonstrates the trust and the credibility inspired by Morocco&#8217;s external actions&#8230;,&#8221; the Moroccan foreign ministry said.



The vote marks a rare public dispute in the African group whose turn it was to lead the 47-member council. It normally strives to take decisions as a bloc.



The dispute in part revolves around Morocco&#8217;s sovereignty claim over Western Sahara, where the Algeria-backed Polisario Front is seeking independence. Morocco has denied allegations of rights abuses against its opponents there.



As part of a broader strategy, Morocco has been courting countries, including African neighbours, to build support for its policies for the former Spanish territory.



It has failed to garner the support of South Africa, which helped organise an event to promote self-determination for the Sahrawi people in Geneva last year.



Rights groups say Morocco&#8217;s new role should prompt it to safeguard human rights at the highest level.



&#8220;In particular, Morocco must refrain from intimidating or carrying out reprisals against human rights defenders engaging with the U.N.,&#8221; said Tess McEvoy, the Co-Director of the New York office of the International Service for Human Rights advocacy group.



The U.N. Human Rights Council, which convenes several times a year, is the only intergovernmental global body designed to protect human rights worldwide. It can increase scrutiny of countries&#8217; human rights records and authorise probes.



(Reporting by Gabrielle Tétrault-Farber and Emma Farge in Geneva, Ahmed El Jechtimi in Rabat; Editing by Timothy Heritage)

comFILE PHOTO: United Nations European headquarters in Geneva

Morocco wins vote to lead UN human rights body after showdown with South Africa

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="462" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107355867-1704791524370-gettyimages-1777760400-aiholdingballotbox-820x462.png" alt="" class="wp-image-444980" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107355867-1704791524370-gettyimages-1777760400-aiholdingballotbox-820x462.png 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107355867-1704791524370-gettyimages-1777760400-aiholdingballotbox-300x169.png 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107355867-1704791524370-gettyimages-1777760400-aiholdingballotbox-160x90.png 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107355867-1704791524370-gettyimages-1777760400-aiholdingballotbox-768x432.png 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107355867-1704791524370-gettyimages-1777760400-aiholdingballotbox.png 929w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Alfieri | Digitalvision Vectors | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



As around half of the world’s adult population heads to the polls in a bumper year of elections, concern over the role of artificial intelligence in disrupting outcomes has topped the list of the biggest risks for 2024, according to a new report.



The World Economic Forum’s “Global Risks Report 2024,” released Wednesday, ranked AI-derived misinformation and disinformation — and its implications for societal polarization — ahead of climate change, war and economic weakness in its top 10 risks over the next two years.



“AI can build out models for influencing large populations of voters in a way that we haven’t seen before,” Carolina Klint, chief commercial officer for Europe at consultancy Marsh McLennan, which co-produced the report, told CNBC’s Silvia Amaro.



“How that is going to play out is going to be quite important for us to watch,” she added.



Looking further ahead, the balance of risks for the next decade shifts toward extreme weather conditions and critical changes to the political world order, with two-thirds of those surveyed anticipating a new multipolar or fragmented world to take shape.



The WEF report, which was also produced in collaboration with Zurich Insurance Group, surveyed over 1,400 global risk experts, policymakers and industry leaders in September 2023 about their biggest global concerns.



The report’s authors said the combined risks are “stretching the world’s adaptative capacity to its limit,” and called on leaders to focus on global cooperation and building guardrails for the most disruptive emerging risks.



“An unstable global order characterized by polarizing narratives and insecurity, the worsening impacts of extreme weather and economic uncertainty are causing accelerating risks – including misinformation and disinformation – to propagate,” Saadia Zahidi, WEF’s managing director, said.



“World leaders must come together to address short-term crises as well as lay the groundwork for a more resilient, sustainable, inclusive future,” she added.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-top-10-global-risks"><a></a>Top 10 global risks</h2>



The most cited risks for the next two years were, in order: misinformation and disinformation, extreme weather events, societal polarization, cyber insecurity and interstate armed conflict. Also in the top 10 were lack of economic opportunity, inflation, involuntary migration, economic downturn and pollution.



Extreme weather events, critical change to earth systems, biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse, natural resource shortages and misinformation and disinformation were named as the most likely risks over the next 10 years. Adverse outcomes from AI technologies was also named as a longer-term concern.



“Artificial intelligence breakthroughs will radically disrupt the risk outlook for organizations with many struggling to react to threats arising from misinformation, disintermediation and strategic miscalculation, Klint said in the report.



“At the same time, companies are having to negotiate supply chains made more complex by geopolitics and climate change and cyber threats from a growing number of malicious actors. It will take a relentless focus to build resilience at organizational, country and international levels – and greater cooperation between the public and private sectors – to navigate this rapidly evolving risk landscape,” she added.



The report comes as global leaders are due to meet next week in Davos, Switzerland for WEF’s annual summit, during which they will discuss global issues including the ongoing conflicts in Europe and the Middle East, the economy and technology, under the event’s tagline “Rebuilding Trust.”



It also comes as the world embarks on a historic year of elections, with Taiwan this weekend kickstarting the elections, which are also due in the U.S., India, Russia, South Africa and Mexico.



In a separate 2024 global risks report released Monday, Eurasia Group named the upcoming U.S. election as its top risk for the year, with “ungoverned AI” also ranking among the top five.



Ian Bremmer, president and founder of Eurasia Group, said in a press briefing that given the wider reaching ramifications of the election outcome, the consultancy had “no choice” but to rank the risk ahead of the wars between Russia and Ukraine and Israel and Hamas.

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Election disruption from AI poses the biggest global risk in 2024, Davos survey warns

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="528" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/AYCWBU7S55KA3CCVAX27AQTKOM-820x528.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-426524" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/AYCWBU7S55KA3CCVAX27AQTKOM-820x528.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/AYCWBU7S55KA3CCVAX27AQTKOM-300x193.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/AYCWBU7S55KA3CCVAX27AQTKOM-140x90.jpg 140w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/AYCWBU7S55KA3CCVAX27AQTKOM-768x494.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/AYCWBU7S55KA3CCVAX27AQTKOM-1536x989.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/AYCWBU7S55KA3CCVAX27AQTKOM-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">A worker arrives at the Jwaneng diamond mine,operated by Debswana, a joint venture between Anglo American unit De Beers and the Botswana government outside Gaborone,Botswana, file. REUTERS/Siphiwe Sibeko</figcaption></figure>



JOHANNESBURG, Jan 10 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Global diamond giant De Beers said it will go ahead with a planned $1 billion investment to extend the life of its flagship Jwaneng mine in Botswana, even as last year&#8217;s downturn in gem demand persists.



The Anglo American&nbsp;AAL.L&nbsp;unit and the Botswana government, which jointly own Debswana Diamond Company, have approved the spending that will convert the Jwaneng pit into an underground operation.



Debswana said in 2018 it planned an investment to extend the lifespan of the mine by 11 years from 2024. De Beers said the spending is necessary as long-term supply of rough gems is expected to tighten.



Angola last year started mining at its new Luele project, the biggest in the country and one of the world&#8217;s largest by estimated resources, despite depressed diamond demand.



&#8220;The global supply of natural diamonds is falling, so moving forward with the Jwaneng underground project creates new value for investors,&#8221; De Beers CEO Al Cook said.



Demand for rough diamonds has been weak in recent months with India &#8211; cutter and polisher of 90% of the world&#8217;s rough diamonds &#8211; asking global miners to stop selling it gemstones to manage accumulated stocks.



&#8220;This investment is aligned with our strategy to prioritise investments in the highest quality projects,&#8221; Cook said.



De Beers last year agreed a new diamond sales pact, which will see the government&#8217;s share of diamonds from the Debswana joint venture gradually increase to 50% over the next decade.



(Reporting by Felix Njini and Nellie Peyton; Editing by Louise Heavens and Jan Harvey)

A worker arrives at the Jwaneng diamond mine

De Beers approves $1 billion spending at Botswana mine

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="461" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107257256-1686815759701-gettyimages-1251498029-AFP_33CY93A-820x461.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-444913" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107257256-1686815759701-gettyimages-1251498029-AFP_33CY93A-820x461.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107257256-1686815759701-gettyimages-1251498029-AFP_33CY93A-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107257256-1686815759701-gettyimages-1251498029-AFP_33CY93A-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107257256-1686815759701-gettyimages-1251498029-AFP_33CY93A-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107257256-1686815759701-gettyimages-1251498029-AFP_33CY93A-1536x864.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107257256-1686815759701-gettyimages-1251498029-AFP_33CY93A.jpeg 1920w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">A job fair in China’s southwestern city of Chongqing on April 11, 2023. Str | Afp | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



The global economy is on course to record its worst half decade of growth in 30 years, according to the World Bank.



Global growth is forecast to slow for the third year in a row in 2024, dipping to 2.4% from 2.6% in 2023, the organization said in its latest “Global Economic Prospects” report released Tuesday.



Growth is then expected to rise marginally to 2.7% in 2025, though acceleration over the five-year period will remain almost three-quarters of a percentage point below the average rate of the 2010s.



And despite the global economy proving resilient in the face of recessionary risks in 2023, increased geopolitical tensions will present fresh near-term challenges, the organization said, leaving most economies set to grow more slowly in 2024 and 2025 than they did in the previous decade.



“You have a war in Eastern Europe, the Russian invasion of Ukraine. You have a serious conflict in the Middle East. Escalation of these conflicts could have significant implications for energy prices that could have impacts on inflation as well as on economic growth,” Ayhan Kose, the World Bank’s deputy chief economist and director of the Prospects Group, told CNBC’s Silvia Amaro.



The bank warned that without a “major course correction,” the 2020s will go down as “a decade of wasted opportunity.”



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-developing-economies-to-be-hit-hardest"><a></a>Developing economies to be hit hardest</h2>



On a regional basis, growth this year is set to weaken most in North America, Europe and Central Asia, and Asia-Pacific — mainly on account of slower expansion in China. A slight improvement is forecast for Latin America and the Caribbean, coming off a low base, while more marked pickups are expected in the Middle East and Africa.



Still, developing economies are set to be the hardest hit on a medium-term basis as sluggish global trade and tight financial conditions weigh heavily on growth.



“Near-term growth will remain weak, leaving many developing countries — especially the poorest — stuck in a trap: with paralyzing levels of debt and tenuous access to food for nearly one out of every three people,” Gill said.



Developing economies are now expected to grow by just 3.9% in 2024, more than 1 percentage point below the average of the previous decade. By the end of the year, people in about 1 out of every 4 developing countries and about 40% of low-income countries will still be poorer than they were on the eve of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2019, the organization said.



The bank said the data showed that the world was failing in its goal of making the 2020s a “transformative decade” in tackling extreme poverty, major communicable diseases and climate change. However, it added that there was an opportunity to turn the tide if governments act quickly to increase investment and strengthen fiscal policy frameworks.



“Investment booms have the potential to transform developing economies and help them speed up the energy transition and achieve a wide variety of development objectives,” Kose said in the report, released ahead of the World Economic Forum next week — where international business and political leaders gather at the annual meeting to discuss global politics, economics and social issues.



“To spark such booms, developing economies need to implement comprehensive policy packages to improve fiscal and monetary frameworks, expand cross-border trade and financial flows, improve the investment climate, and strengthen the quality of institutions,” he said.



“That is hard work, but many developing economies have been able to do it before. Doing it again will help mitigate the projected slowdown in potential growth in the rest of this decade.”

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Global economy set for its worst half decade of growth in 30 years, World Bank says

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107355897-1704798506588-gettyimages-1246816913-AFP_338K67C-820x547.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-444650" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107355897-1704798506588-gettyimages-1246816913-AFP_338K67C-820x547.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107355897-1704798506588-gettyimages-1246816913-AFP_338K67C-300x200.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107355897-1704798506588-gettyimages-1246816913-AFP_338K67C-135x90.jpeg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107355897-1704798506588-gettyimages-1246816913-AFP_338K67C-768x512.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107355897-1704798506588-gettyimages-1246816913-AFP_338K67C-1536x1024.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107355897-1704798506588-gettyimages-1246816913-AFP_338K67C-scaled.jpeg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Greece has been struggling with forest fires that could not be controlled for 10 days on July 27, 2023 in Rhodes, Greece. Dia Images | Getty Images News | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



Scientists on Tuesday confirmed 2023 as the hottest year on record and warned that the planet is now within touching distance of smashing through the critical warming threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius.



The European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) said 2023, a year in which one researcher described temperature anomalies as “absolutely gobsmackingly bananas,” was the warmest calendar year in global temperature data stretching back to 1850.



The 12-month period ended with a global average temperature of 14.98 degrees Celsius, almost 0.2 degree Celsius higher than the previous record set in 2016.



Extreme heat is fueled by the climate crisis, the chief driver of which is the burning of fossil fuels.



Scientists at C3S said 2023 was the first time on record that every day within a year surpassed 1 degree Celsius above the preindustrial reference period of 1850 to 1900, while nearly 50% of days were over 1.5 degrees Celsius.



What’s more, the EU’s climate change service said two days in November were found to have surpassed 2 degrees Celsius for the first time ever.



Samantha Burgess, deputy director of C3S, said in a statement Tuesday that 2023 was “an exceptional year with climate records tumbling like dominoes.”



The findings come after repeated warnings in recent years about the likelihood of the world climbing above the aspirational goal of the landmark Paris Agreement.



The 2015 accord aims to “limit global warming to well below 2, preferably to 1.5 degrees Celsius, compared to pre-industrial levels” and calls for countries to take concerted climate action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to limit global warming.



The importance of the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold is widely recognized as an indicator of the point at which climate impacts become increasingly harmful for people and the planet.



The world has already warmed by around 1.1 degrees Celsius after over a century of burning fossil fuels as well as unequal and unsustainable energy and land use. Indeed, it is this temperature increase that is fueling a series of extreme weather events around the world.

107355897-1704798506588-gettyimages-1246816913-AFP_338K67C

Hottest year on record puts Earth in touching distance of critical warming threshold, scientists say

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="462" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107355902-1704799006982-gettyimages-1862396365-li1_5971-820x462.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-444613" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107355902-1704799006982-gettyimages-1862396365-li1_5971-820x462.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107355902-1704799006982-gettyimages-1862396365-li1_5971-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107355902-1704799006982-gettyimages-1862396365-li1_5971-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107355902-1704799006982-gettyimages-1862396365-li1_5971-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107355902-1704799006982-gettyimages-1862396365-li1_5971.jpeg 929w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">PARIS, FRANCE &#8211; DECEMBER 20: French Education Minister Gabriel Attal during the weekly cabinet meeting at the presidential Elysee Palace on December 20 2023 in Paris, France. (Photo by Christian Liewig &#8211; Corbis/Getty Images) Christian Liewig &#8211; Corbis | Corbis News | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



French President Emmanuel Macron on Tuesday named Gabriel Attal as the country’s new prime minister, as he seeks to set a fresh course ahead of the summer’s European Union elections.



Attal, the current education minister, will become the youngest person to occupy France’s second-highest office at 34 years old.



It follows the apparently reluctant resignation of Elisabeth Borne on Monday afternoon, who said in a letter that she had been informed it was Macron’s wish. Borne said it was “more necessary than ever to continue the reforms” being carried out by the government.



In France, the prime minister leads the government and is appointed by, but cannot be directly dismissed by, the president.



Macron and Borne struggled through a turbulent 2023, with the government narrowly avoiding being toppled amid lawmaker and public opposition to its move to raise the retirement age.



The government suffered another blow in December, when an initial draft of an immigration bill seen as a signature Macron policy was voted down. It eventually passed after it was redrafted to become more hardline.



Macron’s personal disapproval rating is currently 68%, according to a Politico aggregate of polls.



Ensemble, a liberal coalition comprising Macron’s Renaissance party, is trailing both the far-right National Rally and left-wing New Ecological and Social People’s Union.



Attal, a close ally of Macron, is the most popular government minister, polls suggest. He will be the first openly gay prime minister of France.



“I know I can count on your energy and your commitment to implement the rearmament and regeneration project that I announced,” Macron said on X, formerly Twitter, addressing Attal.



The political move comes ahead of elections for the European Parliament in June, in which Renaissance is seeking to avoid an embarrassing blow given its series of political controversies.



The choice of the relatively junior Attal, rather than one of several more senior ministers who were reportedly vying for the role, was likely an effort to avoid infighting within the party ahead of the elections, political consultant Julien Hoez told CNBC.



“There have been many rumors of friction between Macron and Borne, with Borne resistant to be seen as the sacrificial lamb fronting the government’s less popular positions,” Hoez said by phone.



“With all the drama of last year, the riots that were never properly responded to, the immigration law fiasco, the pension reform, Macron likely thought the time had come to move on and provide a palate cleanser.”



“Attal is reasonably well known, with a reputation for working hard. But overall policy is not going to change much from Macron’s existing agenda,” he added.

107355902-1704799006982-gettyimages-1862396365-li1_5971

Gabriel Attal becomes France’s youngest prime minister in modern history

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="462" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107120142-16633564462022-09-16t191457z_1721273427_rc2iiw9db23x_rtrmadp_0_usa-safrica-820x462.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-444579" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107120142-16633564462022-09-16t191457z_1721273427_rc2iiw9db23x_rtrmadp_0_usa-safrica-820x462.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107120142-16633564462022-09-16t191457z_1721273427_rc2iiw9db23x_rtrmadp_0_usa-safrica-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107120142-16633564462022-09-16t191457z_1721273427_rc2iiw9db23x_rtrmadp_0_usa-safrica-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107120142-16633564462022-09-16t191457z_1721273427_rc2iiw9db23x_rtrmadp_0_usa-safrica-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107120142-16633564462022-09-16t191457z_1721273427_rc2iiw9db23x_rtrmadp_0_usa-safrica.jpeg 929w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">U.S. President Joe Biden greets South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, September 16, 2022. Evelyn Hockstein | Reuters</figcaption></figure>



South Africa’s genocide accusation against Israel has placed further strain on an already frayed relationship with the U.S. and could have serious diplomatic ramifications.



The International Court of Justice, the UN’s highest legal body, will this week hear a case brought by South Africa that accuses Israel of committing genocide against Palestinian people during the assault on the Gaza Strip. The suit also seeks an emergency suspension of the military campaign.



U.S. National Security Council Spokesperson John Kirby last week called the lawsuit “meritless, counterproductive, and completely without any basis in fact whatsoever,” while Israel has rejected it as “blood libel.”



This is the latest divergence in a series of diplomatic disagreements between Washington and Pretoria, which the U.S. sees as being too close to Russia and China.



In May 2023, when U.S. Ambassador Reuben Brigety accused South Africa of running guns for Russia via a mystery merchant ship. A South African inquiry found no evidence of the alleged arms shipment, but ties between the two historical allies remained taut.



Prior to that, Brigety and other U.S. officials had repeatedly criticized Pretoria for its policy of non-alignment regarding the war in Ukraine, which Washington interpreted as favoring Russia.



South African President Cyril Ramaphosa fiercely refuted the suggestion, and his government has since further clarified that it does not support Russia’s invasion.



Yet Chris Vandome, senior research fellow at Chatham House’s Africa Programme, told CNBC on Monday that the conflict in the Gaza Strip has erupted at a time when the U.S.-South Africa relationship is “at a low point.”



“Over the past two years a succession of frustrations, including South Africa feeling it is being pushed on Russia-Ukraine, the U.S. Ambassador’s statements on South African domestic security and on its relationship with Russia, and U.S. policy on China in Africa, have all contributed to the worsening of this relationship,” Vandome said.



Though Africa’s most industrialized nation has long been a “thorn in the side” of the White House as far as Israel-Palestine is concerned, Vandome suggested that the latest divergences are compounding these frustrations.



“Debates in Washington regarding whether South Africa should continue to benefit from AGOA [the African Growth and Opportunity Act] have spurred diplomatic efforts from South Africa to protect its most important investment partners, but many in the county view such discussions as threats which only serves to harden ideological anti-western positions,” he explained.



Enacted in 2000, AGOA is a key tenet of U.S. economic policy in Africa that provides duty-free access to the U.S. market for over 1,800 products across 32 eligible countries in 2024.



The Office of the United States Trade Representative stipulates that, in order to meet the rigorous eligibility requirements, countries must “establish or make continual progress toward establishing a market-based economy, the rule of law, political pluralism, and the right to due process.”



“Additionally, countries must eliminate barriers to U.S. trade and investment, enact policies to reduce poverty, combat corruption, and protect human rights,” the USTR states.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-solidarity-against-apartheid-oppression">‘Solidarity against apartheid oppression’</h3>



South Africa’s close relationship with Russia is based on a multitude of factors past and present. Pretoria has repeatedly cited the USSR’s historical anti-apartheid support, and there is a pragmatic impetus to maintain friendly ties with a fellow BRICS member.



During a visit from Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov last January, South African Foreign Minister Naledi Pandor said that BRICS countries should play a proactive role in the emergence of a “redesigned global order.”



But the ruling African National Congress’ support for Palestinian territories is different, Vandome explained, in that it is rooted in “solidarity against apartheid oppression” — a cause inextricably linked to the party’s founding ideology.



“Support for Palestine has been a mainstay of ANC international relations policy since before the dawn of democracy, and it has been one of the few countries to take such a long and consistent position,” he said.



“The entrenchment of support for Palestine within ANC party documents voted on and accepted at party conferences means that the President would be going against the will of the Party if he were to adopt a different position at national level, and this would leave him very politically exposed to detractors from opposing factions.”



South Africa’s elections this year are billed as the most significant since the dawn of democracy following the end of apartheid in 1994. The ANC faces a serious challenge from the majority-white main opposition Democratic Alliance and is projected to fall below the 50% threshold to govern for the first time in 30 years.



This opens the door to potential coalition discussions with smaller parties, and though foreign policy issues aren’t typically a deciding factor in South African elections, the Israel-Gaza divide could complicate how these coalitions are formed.



“This issue could prevent a ‘coalition of the centre ground’ between the ANC and DA, which was a stronger possibility before the parties adopted divergent positions on this,” Vandome said.



“Furthermore, it could impact party funding, with some businesses that had previously supported the ruling party now withholding support.”

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U.S. slams ‘meritless’ Israel genocide suit, reigniting tensions with South Africa

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/IMF-World-Bank-to-proceed-with-annual-meetings-in-Morocco-in-October-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-427563" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/IMF-World-Bank-to-proceed-with-annual-meetings-in-Morocco-in-October-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/IMF-World-Bank-to-proceed-with-annual-meetings-in-Morocco-in-October-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/IMF-World-Bank-to-proceed-with-annual-meetings-in-Morocco-in-October-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/IMF-World-Bank-to-proceed-with-annual-meetings-in-Morocco-in-October-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/IMF-World-Bank-to-proceed-with-annual-meetings-in-Morocco-in-October-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/IMF-World-Bank-to-proceed-with-annual-meetings-in-Morocco-in-October-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) logo is seen outside the headquarters building in Washington, U.S., September 4, 2018. REUTERS/Yuri Gripas/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



JOHANNESBURG, Jan 9 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;The International Monetary Fund&#8217;s executive board&nbsp;has completed the third review of Mozambique&#8217;s three-year loan program, allowing for an immediate disbursement to Maputo of about $60.7 million, the fund said.



The review brings total disbursements under the $456 million Extended Credit Facility program approved in 2022 to about $273 million, the IMF said late on Monday.



&#8220;Program performance has been satisfactory,&#8221; it said in a statement, adding that inflationary pressures had declined sharply and the economic recovery is accelerating.



The three-year arrangement is expected to support economic recovery and policies to reduce public debt and financing vulnerabilities, while creating space for public investments in human capital, climate adaptation and infrastructure.



(Reporting by Anait Miridzhanian; Editing by Olivia Kumwenda-Mtambo and Kim Coghill)

FILE PHOTO: The IMF logo is seen outside the headquarters building in Washington

IMF approves disbursement of $60.7 million to Mozambique

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="800" height="533" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/download-71.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-427693" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/download-71.jpg 800w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/download-71-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/download-71-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/download-71-768x512.jpg 768w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Gold bars are stacked in the safe deposit boxes room of the Pro Aurum gold house in Munich, Germany, August 14, 2019. REUTERS/Michael Dalder</figcaption></figure>



HARARE, Jan 8 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Zimbabwe produced 30 metric tons of gold in 2023, 15% less than the previous year, official data showed on Monday, as electricity cuts and currency volatility impacted output.



The southern African country was once among the top gold producers on the continent but has fallen far behind regional peers Ghana, Mali, Burkina Faso, Guinea and Tanzania as an extended economic crisis kept investors away.



Zimbabwe remains largely under-explored and its operating mines struggle to raise capital due to concerns over government policy and property rights, especially after the seizure of white-owned farms at the turn of the century.



Output plunged to a mere 3 tons in 2008, at the height of Zimbabwe&#8217;s political and hyperinflation crisis. Although production has recovered in recent years, reaching an all-time high of 35 tons in 2022, the country still lags behind its regional peers, despite its significant potential.



The country&#8217;s 2023 gold haul of 30.11 tons fell short of the government&#8217;s target of 40 tons for the year, showed data from Fidelity Refineries, the state-owned agency which solely processes all the gold produced in the country.



Zimbabwean gold producers, along with all other exporters from the country, receive 75% of their earnings in U.S. dollars and the balance in a local currency that lost more than 80% of its value last year alone.



The country also experienced intensified power cuts due to the frequent breakdown of its ageing coal-fired plants, while generation at the Kariba hydropower station continues to be throttled by low water levels.



Most of Zimbabwe&#8217;s gold is produced by small-scale operators and artisanal miners, a highly fragmented structure that lacks the advantages and efficiencies of scale.



Some of the country&#8217;s top gold producers include the state-owned Kuvimba Mining House, Caledonia Mining Corporation&nbsp;CALq.L, Padenga&nbsp;PHL.VF&nbsp;and RioZim&nbsp;RTNR.ZI.



(Reporting by Nyasha Chingono; Editing by Nelson Banya and Louise Heavens)

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Zimbabwe gold output declines 15% amid electricity, forex shortages

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="678" height="452" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/images-4.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-444190" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/images-4.jpeg 678w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/images-4-300x200.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/images-4-135x90.jpeg 135w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 678px) 100vw, 678px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">A screen displaying an advertisement for iPhone 11 Pro is seen outside an Apple store in Beijing, China October 31, 2019. REUTERS/Florence Lo/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



BEIJING, Jan 8 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Apple&nbsp;AAPL.O&#8217;s iPhone sales in China dropped by 30% in the first week of 2024, Jefferies analysts said in a note, adding to signs of growing competitive pressures from domestic rivals such as Huawei&nbsp;HWT.UL&nbsp;for the U.S. tech giant.



The decline in&nbsp;Apple&#8217;s sales was the primary catalyst for an overall double-digit drop in China smartphone shipments for the first week, according to a note the brokerage published on Sunday. Other Android brands and Huawei achieved relatively flat growth year-over-year during this period, the note said.



This decrease in Apple&#8217;s sales took place despite aggressive discounting of multiple iPhone models through major Chinese online marketplaces, according to the research note. For example, the iPhone 15 Pro and iPhone 15 Pro Max received a 16% price reduction on the e-commerce platform Pinduoduo in the first week of 2024.



The 30% drop represents an acceleration from the 3% year-over-year decline the U.S. company saw for all of 2023 in its third-largest market, Jefferies said, adding that the brokerage derived this from its own market tracking. Specifically, the 3% decline in 2023 equated to a 0.4% decrease in&nbsp;Apple&#8217;s market share.



Jefferies analysts said&nbsp;Apple&#8217;s decline is largely attributed to competitive pressures from Chinese rivals, especially Huawei, which launched its Mate 60 series of phones in August last year.



Apple&nbsp;and Huawei did not immediately respond to requests for comment.



The Mate 60 line is widely viewed as marking Huawei&#8217;s comeback to the high-end smartphone market after years of U.S. sanctions that had previously hampered its progress.



For the final quarter of 2023, Huawei&#8217;s share in the Chinese smartphone market rose by about 6%, according to the note.



According to the Jefferies analysts,&nbsp;Apple&nbsp;will likely face more competitive pressure from domestic rivals throughout 2024. Their forecast predicts&nbsp;Apple&#8217;s shipment volumes will continue declining by double digits in 2024, while Huawei is expected to continue gaining market share.



Specifically, they estimate that Huawei will ship approximately 64 million smartphones worldwide in 2024 &#8211; up substantially from the estimated less than 35 million shipped in 2023.



Following a years-long slump, the Chinese smartphone market is poised for a rebound other analysts have forecasted, with research firm IDC predicting unspecified year-on-year sales growth in the fourth quarter after ten consecutive quarters of falling shipments.



(Reporting by Yelin Mo and Brenda Goh, Editing by Louise Heavens)

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Apple iPhone sales in China fall 30% in first week of 2024 – Jefferies

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="810" height="540" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/download-62.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-423481" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/download-62.jpg 810w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/download-62-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/download-62-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/download-62-768x512.jpg 768w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 810px) 100vw, 810px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: A person holds a new 1000 naira note as the Central Bank of Nigeria releases the notes to the public through the banks in Abuja, Nigeria, December 15, 2022. REUTERS/Afolabi Sotunde</figcaption></figure>



ABUJA, Jan 8 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Nigeria&#8217;s central bank has paid nearly $2 billion in outstanding foreign exchange forwards in the last three months in a bid to clear a backlog of dollars, a spokesperson has said, but forex shortages continue to hobble the country&#8217;s naira currency.



Africa&#8217;s biggest economy has nearly $7 billion in forex forwards that have matured, a major concern for investors, but the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has promised to pay up to boost confidence in the foreign exchange market.



&#8220;In the past three months, the CBN has also redeemed outstanding forward liabilities amounting to almost USD 2 billion,&#8221; acting spokesperson Hakama Sadi Ali said in a statement late on Sunday.



&#8220;This underscores the Bank&#8217;s commitment to the resolution of pending obligations and a functional foreign exchange market.&#8221;



Nigeria&#8217;s foreign currency shortages have been worsened by declining oil production, which is the country&#8217;s largest export, accounting for more than 90% of dollar inflows.



Ali said the CBN had recently paid $61.64 million to foreign airlines, who sold tickets in the local naira currency but have not been able to get their money out of the country.



Foreign airlines were owed more than $700 million at the end of November.



&#8220;These payments signify the CBN&#8217;s ongoing efforts to settle all remaining valid forward transactions, with the aim of alleviating the current pressure on the country&#8217;s exchange rate,&#8221; Ali said.



President Bola Tinubu has promised to boost foreign currency inflows into Nigeria by attracting new investment, ramping up oil production and reforming the foreign exchange market.



(Reporting by Camillus Eboh; Writing by MacDonald Dzirutwe; Editing by Jacqueline Wong)

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Nigeria central bank pays nearly $2 billion towards FX backlog

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="517" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/GNZ4EKIZHBJMHAHGTKTLUHIQ54-820x517.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-415106" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/GNZ4EKIZHBJMHAHGTKTLUHIQ54-820x517.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/GNZ4EKIZHBJMHAHGTKTLUHIQ54-300x189.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/GNZ4EKIZHBJMHAHGTKTLUHIQ54-143x90.jpg 143w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/GNZ4EKIZHBJMHAHGTKTLUHIQ54-768x484.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/GNZ4EKIZHBJMHAHGTKTLUHIQ54.jpg 1200w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">A 3D-printed oil pump jack is seen in front of displayed OPEC logo in this illustration picture, April 14, 2020. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



LONDON, Jan 5 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;OPEC DECEMBER OIL OUTPUT RISES BY 70,000 BPD FROM NOVEMBER TO 27.88 MILLION BPD AHEAD OF 2024 CUTS, ANGOLA EXIT &#8211; REUTERS SURVEY



OPEC oil output rose in December, a Reuters survey found on Friday, as increases in Iraq, Angola and Nigeria offset ongoing cuts by Saudi Arabia and other members of the wider OPEC+ alliance to support the market.



The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries pumped 27.88 million barrels per day (bpd) last month, the survey found, up 70,000 bpd from November. Output is down more than 1 million bpd from the same month a year ago.&nbsp;PRODN-TOTAL



The boost comes ahead of further OPEC+ cuts in 2024 and Angola&#8217;s exit from OPEC, which are set to lower January output and market share. OPEC&#8217;s market share has already been falling due to output restraint and the departure of some members.



In December, the biggest increases of 60,000 bpd came from Iraq and Angola, which both boosted exports, the survey found.



Nigeria also shipped more crude abroad without, as yet, beginning oil products output at its new Dangote refinery.



The Reuters survey, which aims to track supply to the market, is based on shipping data provided by external sources, Refinitiv Eikon flows data, information from companies that track flows such as Petro-Logistics and Kpler and information provided by sources at oil companies, OPEC and consultants.



(Additional reporting by Ahmad Ghaddar, Editing by Louise Heavens)

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OPEC December oil output rises before new cuts, Angola exit – Reuters survey

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="461" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107354239-1704378066799-gettyimages-1773121742-js1_7395_t864nkzd-820x461.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-443136" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107354239-1704378066799-gettyimages-1773121742-js1_7395_t864nkzd-820x461.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107354239-1704378066799-gettyimages-1773121742-js1_7395_t864nkzd-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107354239-1704378066799-gettyimages-1773121742-js1_7395_t864nkzd-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107354239-1704378066799-gettyimages-1773121742-js1_7395_t864nkzd-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107354239-1704378066799-gettyimages-1773121742-js1_7395_t864nkzd-1536x864.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107354239-1704378066799-gettyimages-1773121742-js1_7395_t864nkzd.jpeg 1600w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">A now hiring sign is posted in front of a U-Haul rental center on November 03, 2023 in San Rafael, California. Justin Sullivan | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



When the December jobs report is released Friday morning, markets will be looking for a number that hits a sweet spot between not so robust as to trigger more interest rate hikes and not so slow as to raise worries about the economy.



In market jargon, that quest for the middle is sometimes referred to as a “Goldilocks” number — not too hot, not too cold — that can be difficult to find.



But in this case, the good news is that the range looks to be pretty wide with a higher probability of good news than bad.



While the Dow Jones estimate is for a nonfarm payrolls gain of 170,000, Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Financial, said the acceptable range is really something like 100,000-250,000.



“I just feel like we have a much better receptivity to good news being good news now that we know that that’s not going to induce another rate hike,” Hogan said. “It’s just going to push off a rate cut.”



As things stand, markets figure the Federal Reserve is done hiking rates and could start cutting as early as March, eventually lopping off 1.5 percentage points from its benchmark rate by the end of 2024. Recent news coming out of the Fed is pushing back at least a little on that anticipated trajectory, and a strong jobs number could dampen the likelihood of policy easing that quickly.



“If we were to get above [250,000], then people might look at that and say we have to cancel March as a potential rate cut and maybe take one off the table for this year,” Hogan said. “Frankly, we know we’re at a place now where the Fed is done raising rates. So if that’s the case, clearly good news could be good news. It’s just how good the news could be before you get concerned that some of the hope for rate cuts might get pushed out into the back half of the year.”



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-high-hopes-for-cuts"><a></a>High hopes for cuts</h2>



Markets have gotten off to a rocky start in the new year as rate-sensitive Big Tech stocks have lagged. Traders are anticipating that the Fed will ease up on monetary policy, though such an aggressive schedule of cuts could imply something more than winning the battle against inflation and instead may infer economic weakness that forces the central bank’s hand.



Hogan said investors should be taking that into consideration when thinking about the impact of lower rates.



“This is a market that’s gotten itself a little jazzed up about rate cuts and when they’re going to happen,” he said. “People need to focus on why they’re going to happen.”



“If the wheels are coming off the economic cart and the Fed has to rush in to stimulate that, that’s bad rate cuts, right?” he added. “The good rate cuts are if the path of inflation continues toward the Fed’s target. That’s a good rate cut. So if that doesn’t happen until the second half, I’m fine with that.”



As usual, markets will be looking at more than the headline payrolls number for the health of the labor market.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-digging-through-details"><a></a>Digging through details</h2>



Wages have been a concern as an inflation component. The expectation for average hourly earnings is a 12-month growth rate of 3.9%. If that proves accurate, it will be the first time wage gains come in under 4% since mid-2021.



The unemployment rate is expected to tick up to 3.8%, which will still keep it below 4% for 23 straight months.



“The overall picture is one in which the labor market is gradually decelerating in a very orderly fashion,” said Julia Pollak, chief economist at online jobs marketplace ZipRecruiter. “I expect December to continue the trend of just gradual cooling to around 150,000 [new jobs], and possibly a small uptick in unemployment because so many people have been pouring into the workforce.”



The labor force grew by about 3.3 million in 2023 through November, though the trend has had little impact on the unemployment rate, which was up just 0.1 percentage point from the same month in 2022.



However, Pollak noted that the hiring rate is still below where it was prior to the Covid pandemic. The quits rate, a Labor Department measure that is looked at as a sign of worker confidence in finding new employment, has tumbled to 2.2% after peaking at 3% during the so-called Great Resignation in 2021 and 2022.



The jobs picture overall has shifted since then, with the once-hot tech sector now lagging in terms of job openings and health care taking the lead, according to Nick Bunker, economic research director at the Indeed Hiring Lab.



“We’re seeing a labor market that is not as tight and as hot as what we saw the last couple years,” Bunker said. “But it’s got into a groove that seems more sustainable.”

107354239-1704378066799-gettyimages-1773121742-js1_7395_t864nkzd

Friday’s jobs report will be a big signal for a market looking for good news

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="728" height="485" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/GRWCSJKK3NKH7M3COMPN5L5GGU.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-420130" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/GRWCSJKK3NKH7M3COMPN5L5GGU.jpg 728w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/GRWCSJKK3NKH7M3COMPN5L5GGU-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/GRWCSJKK3NKH7M3COMPN5L5GGU-135x90.jpg 135w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 728px) 100vw, 728px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">The International Monetary Fund logo is seen at IMF headquarters in Washington, U.S., October 14, 2017. REUTERS/Yuri Gripas/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



JOHANNESBURG/ACCRA/LONDON, Jan 4 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Ghana&#8217;s official creditors are scheduled to meet on Monday to discuss restructuring some $5.4 billion in loans to the country, three sources told Reuters, a key step needed to secure its next tranche of funding from the International Monetary Fund.



The bilateral lenders, including the governments of China and France who co-chair the Official Creditor Committee (OCC), hold around a quarter of Ghana&#8217;s $20 billion external debt earmarked for restructuring.



The meeting is again expected to focus on an agreement about a &#8220;cut-off date&#8221; &#8211; the date after which new loans from bilateral creditors will not be restructured, the sources with knowledge of the matter said. Defining this date has emerged as a stumbling block for Ghana in its debt rework.



Some creditors are said to prefer Dec. 31, 2022, as a cut-off date with Ghana having defaulted earlier that month, according to sources. However, others pushed for March 24, 2020, because that was when the Group of 20 introduced its debt service suspension initiative (DSSI) to help the world&#8217;s poorest countries cope with the fallout of the COVID crisis. Ghana did not participate in the DSSI.



In preparation for the Jan. 8 OCC meeting, the Paris Club of major creditor nations, which does not count China among its permanent members, will convene on Friday, two sources said.



The Paris Club this week shared a technical note with other bilateral creditors and multilateral lenders on Ghana, one of the sources said, adding that the group of rich nations is proposing December 2022 as the cut-off date, one source with direct knowledge said.



&#8220;Ghana is still about cut-off date, but creditors haven&#8217;t agreed yet,&#8221; the source said. &#8220;If the cut-off date is agreed, that means an agreement on debt restructuring is close.&#8221;



A spokesperson for the Paris Club declined to comment on meetings that have not yet taken place. Ghana&#8217;s finance ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment.



The West African country, which produces gold, cocoa, and oil, needs to come to an agreement on a debt restructuring with its official creditors to secure the IMF executive board&#8217;s approval for the next $600 million payout from a $3 billion rescue loan.



This is because the Washington-based lender needs financing assurances that debt relief is being provided by bilateral creditors in accordance with the IMF programme.



Ghana, where a deep economic crisis has seen inflation and the government&#8217;s debt servicing costs spiral, asked a year ago for a bilateral debt restructuring under the Common Framework, a process set up during the COVID-19 pandemic by the G20 leading economies.



It is also in talks with overseas bondholders to restructure its more than $13 billion in international debt. Holders of the bonds include major global asset managers such as BlackRock, PIMCO, Vontobel, AllianceBernstein and Neuberger Berman.



(Reporting by Rachel Savage, Maxwell Akalaare Adombila and Jorgelina do Rosario; Writing by Karin Strohecker; Editing by Dhara Ranasinghe, Hugh Lawson and Alison Williams)

FILE PHOTO: The International Monetary Fund logo is seen at IMF headquarters in Washington

Ghana official creditors to meet Monday, mull debt restructuring terms -sources

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="548" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/FSG7ZJLZSVPYDIAQ4I25PVA7XY-820x548.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-442871" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/FSG7ZJLZSVPYDIAQ4I25PVA7XY-820x548.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/FSG7ZJLZSVPYDIAQ4I25PVA7XY-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/FSG7ZJLZSVPYDIAQ4I25PVA7XY-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/FSG7ZJLZSVPYDIAQ4I25PVA7XY-768x513.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/FSG7ZJLZSVPYDIAQ4I25PVA7XY-1536x1026.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/FSG7ZJLZSVPYDIAQ4I25PVA7XY-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Italy&#8217;s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni holds her end-of-year press conference in Rome, Italy, January 4, 2024. REUTERS/Guglielmo Mangiapane</figcaption></figure>



ROME, Jan 4 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Supporting African development and tackling the dangers posed by artificial intelligence (AI) will be two key themes for Italy during its one-year presidency of the Group of Seven, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said on Thursday.



Speaking at a wide-ranging news conference, Meloni added that Italy would maintain its support for Ukraine in the war against Russia and warned that a further escalation of the conflict in the Middle East could have &#8220;unimaginable consequences&#8221;.



Italy took over the rotating presidency of the G7, which includes the United States, Canada, Japan, Germany, France, Britain and Italy, at the start of January.



It will host numerous ministerial meetings throughout the year, including a leaders&#8217; summit in June. However, Meloni said she wanted to hold a special session before June focused on AI.



&#8220;I am hugely concerned about the impact (of AI) on the labour market,&#8221; she told the news conference to mark the end of the year, held over from last month when she was unwell.



&#8220;Today we are faced with a revolution where (human) intellect is in danger of being replaced.&#8221;



She told reporters that supporting African development would also be a central theme of her G7, saying it was vital to boost local economies and living standards to dissuade would-be migrants from heading to Europe.



&#8220;What I think needs to be done in Africa is not charity. What needs to be done in Africa is to build cooperation and serious strategic relationships as equals not predators. What needs to be done in Africa is to defend the right not to have to emigrate &#8230; and this is done with investments and a strategy.&#8221;



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-war-on-the-agenda">WAR ON THE AGENDA</h2>



Among other issues likely to dominate Italy&#8217;s presidency is the war in Ukraine and the conflict in Gaza between Israel and Palestinian militant group Hamas.



Meloni called on Israel to avoid civilian casualties in Gaza and said that a more permanent solution needed to be found for the Palestinian issue.



&#8220;I believe&#8230;it&#8217;s an error to say &#8216;First let&#8217;s destroy Hamas and then we&#8217;ll talk about it&#8217;,&#8221; Meloni said.



&#8220;One of the best ways of calling the bluff of Hamas, which has no interest in the Palestinian cause, is to work for a structural solution of the Palestinian question,&#8221; she added, saying the European Union should play a more prominent role in diplomatic initiatives.



Meloni, who took power in October 2022 as Italy&#8217;s first woman prime minister, said she believed that the West should continue to supply arms and material support to Kyiv.



&#8220;The only way to reach any kind of diplomatic solution in Ukraine, any kind of negotiation, is to maintain the balance between forces on the ground.&#8221;



(Reporting by Giselda Vagnoni and Giuseppe Fonte; Writing by Crispian Balmer and Keith Weir; Editing by)

Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni holds her end-of-year press conference in Rome

Italy to put Africa development, AI at heart of its G7 presidency

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="525" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/QJKRTGY7Z5K7ZMOCVNCXH6DJ6I-820x525.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-442772" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/QJKRTGY7Z5K7ZMOCVNCXH6DJ6I-820x525.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/QJKRTGY7Z5K7ZMOCVNCXH6DJ6I-300x192.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/QJKRTGY7Z5K7ZMOCVNCXH6DJ6I-141x90.jpg 141w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/QJKRTGY7Z5K7ZMOCVNCXH6DJ6I-768x491.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/QJKRTGY7Z5K7ZMOCVNCXH6DJ6I-1536x983.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/QJKRTGY7Z5K7ZMOCVNCXH6DJ6I-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: A worker sells eggs to a customer at a spaza shop in Thembisa, on the East Rand, in South Africa, August 2, 2023. REUTERS/Siphiwe Sibeko</figcaption></figure>



JOHANNESBURG, Jan 4 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;South African private sector activity shrank in December as companies signalled a greater impact on business amid the gridlock problems afflicting the country&#8217;s ports, a survey showed on Thursday.



The S&amp;P Global South Africa Purchasing Managers&#8217; Index (PMI) fell to 49.0 in December from 50.0 in November. A reading above 50 indicates growth in activity.



Supply chains, inventories, output and demand were all hit by the port crisis in Durban, with delivery times lengthening at the sharpest rate in close to two years, the survey showed.



&#8220;The port gridlock is likely to further dent the economy at the start of 2024 as businesses face greater shortfalls in input supply,&#8221; said David Owen, senior economist at S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence.



Rotational power cuts implemented by power utility Eskom are also expected to remain an issue after electricity outages reportedly hit output and sales in December, he added.



Equipment shortages and maintenance backlogs after years of underinvestment have meant South African state-owned logistics company Transnet has struggled to provide adequate freight rail and port services in the country.



(Reporting by Bhargav Acharya; Editing by Hugh Lawson)

A worker sells eggs to a customer at a spaza shop

South Africa business activity shrinks in Dec amid port gridlock -PMI

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/LQEFKEUAZZKWDEXBE2KZ3LRCZM-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-442754" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/LQEFKEUAZZKWDEXBE2KZ3LRCZM-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/LQEFKEUAZZKWDEXBE2KZ3LRCZM-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/LQEFKEUAZZKWDEXBE2KZ3LRCZM-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/LQEFKEUAZZKWDEXBE2KZ3LRCZM-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/LQEFKEUAZZKWDEXBE2KZ3LRCZM-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/LQEFKEUAZZKWDEXBE2KZ3LRCZM-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: Commuters pass by as posters of an election candidate hang on the street ahead of the general election in Dhaka, Bangladesh, January 2, 2024. REUTERS/Mohammad Ponir Hossain/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



LONDON, (Reuters) &#8211; Emerging markets are gearing up for their biggest election year in decades, with investors focused on fiscal discipline and populist shifts that could stir markets and blur the outlook for some key economies.



Countries home to more than half the world&#8217;s population and accounting for more than 60% of global economic output go to the polls in 2024.



The calendar is bookended by votes in Taiwan in January &#8211; a high-stakes geopolitical event &#8211; and in sovereign defaulter Ghana in December, as the country strives to emerge from a debt crunch.



&#8220;This is an election year like we have never seen before. It really is an extraordinary year,&#8221; said David Lubin, associate fellow at think tank Chatham House and Citi&#8217;s former head of emerging market economics.



&#8220;Recent elections in Argentina and Poland have reminded us that elections do produce surprises,&#8221; Lubin added.



The elections frenzy comes against a backdrop of sharply higher global borrowing rates &#8211; piling pressure on more fragile economies even though the prospect of interest rate cuts from the world&#8217;s big central banks is firmly on the horizon.



For investors, elections divide into three categories: Those where the outcome is rather obvious, such as Russia or Venezuela; those where it seems clear but the ballot is contested, for example India, Mexico or Indonesia; and those where there is genuine uncertainty, like in South Africa.



The 2023 polls in Argentina and Poland also served as reminders that governments due to face their electorates are more often than not prone to loosening the purse strings &#8211; a trend that can leave those who take over struggling to roll back the handouts.



Even when Argentina&#8217;s previous government ramped up spending between the first and second round of their vote, radical Javier Milei swept to power and embarked on a radical reform programme. In Poland, the surprise election win of the liberal, pro-EU Donald Tusk got the thumbs up from investors.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-open-wallets">OPEN WALLETS</h2>



Fiscal discipline is seen as key, especially following a series of external shocks ranging from COVID-19 to Russia&#8217;s war in Ukraine and a rise in global yields that has highlighted the need for countries to keep spending tightly controlled, said Yvette Babb, a portfolio manager at asset manager William Blair.



&#8220;There is very limited margin for populist &#8211; often times meaning &#8216;expensive&#8217; &#8211; policy stances across emerging markets,&#8221; said Babb. &#8220;In many of our markets, elections victories have historically been tied to fiscal stances and populist policy. For this to continue it would be very controversial.&#8221;



Morgan Stanley flagged fiscal risks from pre-election spending as a key driver this year for South Africa, Romania, Russia, El Salvador, Dominican Republic and Uruguay.



The ramifications could be felt well beyond this year. The Institute of International Finance (IIF) said the &#8220;tsunami&#8221; of 2024 elections could add to an already record glut of global debt estimated to have hit $310 trillion by the end of 2023.



&#8220;A sudden increase in government spending during this global elections cycle could further elevate interest (payments) for many countries,&#8221; warned Emre Tiftik, Director of Sustainable Research at the IIF, adding that this could create further volatility in markets.



Some fear this could spur a resurgence of so-called bond vigilantes, investors who punish profligate governments by selling their bonds, driving yields higher.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-currency-shivers">CURRENCY SHIVERS</h2>



Analysts at Citi, who also warn that the looming emerging markets election cycle might see &#8220;less policy discipline than investors would like&#8221; &#8211; have studied the short-term effects markets might have to contend with.



While some votes are bound to generate more volatility than others, currency markets are often the first to feel election nerves, especially in Latin America, according to Citi strategist Dirk Willer.



He points to a reliable pattern for Mexico&#8217;s peso that sees the currency weakening in the lead-up to the vote only to strengthen on the emergence of some kind of certainty once the election result seems reasonably established. Latin America&#8217;s second-largest economy is scheduled to hold elections on June 2 with the incumbent party&#8217;s candidate enjoying a healthy lead in opinion polls.



Evidence of the heavy election cycle shaping investment flows to equities already emerged in 2023, said Karim Chedid, head of EMEA iShares investment strategy at BlackRock.



&#8220;We are seeing an evolution of the EM trade from broad to more granular which I am keeping on my radar in 2024 because of the heavy election calendar,&#8221; said Chedid, singling out Mexico but also India.



The world&#8217;s most populous country is set to hold elections in April or May, with self-styled strong man Narendra Modi expected to win a third term as prime minister.



(Reporting by Karin Strohecker, additional reporting by Libby George and Jorgelina do Rosario, graphics by Sumanta Sen and Marc Jones, Editing by Hugh Lawson)

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De Beers approves $1 billion spending at Botswana mine

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Nigeria central bank pays nearly $2 billion towards FX backlog

OPEC December oil output rises before new cuts, Angola exit – Reuters survey

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Italy to put Africa development, AI at heart of its G7 presidency

South Africa business activity shrinks in Dec amid port gridlock -PMI

Emerging markets brace for wave of elections with fiscal discipline at stake

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Advertise With Us

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