<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/LQEFKEUAZZKWDEXBE2KZ3LRCZM-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-442754" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/LQEFKEUAZZKWDEXBE2KZ3LRCZM-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/LQEFKEUAZZKWDEXBE2KZ3LRCZM-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/LQEFKEUAZZKWDEXBE2KZ3LRCZM-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/LQEFKEUAZZKWDEXBE2KZ3LRCZM-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/LQEFKEUAZZKWDEXBE2KZ3LRCZM-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/LQEFKEUAZZKWDEXBE2KZ3LRCZM-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: Commuters pass by as posters of an election candidate hang on the street ahead of the general election in Dhaka, Bangladesh, January 2, 2024. REUTERS/Mohammad Ponir Hossain/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



LONDON, (Reuters) &#8211; Emerging markets are gearing up for their biggest election year in decades, with investors focused on fiscal discipline and populist shifts that could stir markets and blur the outlook for some key economies.



Countries home to more than half the world&#8217;s population and accounting for more than 60% of global economic output go to the polls in 2024.



The calendar is bookended by votes in Taiwan in January &#8211; a high-stakes geopolitical event &#8211; and in sovereign defaulter Ghana in December, as the country strives to emerge from a debt crunch.



&#8220;This is an election year like we have never seen before. It really is an extraordinary year,&#8221; said David Lubin, associate fellow at think tank Chatham House and Citi&#8217;s former head of emerging market economics.



&#8220;Recent elections in Argentina and Poland have reminded us that elections do produce surprises,&#8221; Lubin added.



The elections frenzy comes against a backdrop of sharply higher global borrowing rates &#8211; piling pressure on more fragile economies even though the prospect of interest rate cuts from the world&#8217;s big central banks is firmly on the horizon.



For investors, elections divide into three categories: Those where the outcome is rather obvious, such as Russia or Venezuela; those where it seems clear but the ballot is contested, for example India, Mexico or Indonesia; and those where there is genuine uncertainty, like in South Africa.



The 2023 polls in Argentina and Poland also served as reminders that governments due to face their electorates are more often than not prone to loosening the purse strings &#8211; a trend that can leave those who take over struggling to roll back the handouts.



Even when Argentina&#8217;s previous government ramped up spending between the first and second round of their vote, radical Javier Milei swept to power and embarked on a radical reform programme. In Poland, the surprise election win of the liberal, pro-EU Donald Tusk got the thumbs up from investors.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-open-wallets">OPEN WALLETS</h2>



Fiscal discipline is seen as key, especially following a series of external shocks ranging from COVID-19 to Russia&#8217;s war in Ukraine and a rise in global yields that has highlighted the need for countries to keep spending tightly controlled, said Yvette Babb, a portfolio manager at asset manager William Blair.



&#8220;There is very limited margin for populist &#8211; often times meaning &#8216;expensive&#8217; &#8211; policy stances across emerging markets,&#8221; said Babb. &#8220;In many of our markets, elections victories have historically been tied to fiscal stances and populist policy. For this to continue it would be very controversial.&#8221;



Morgan Stanley flagged fiscal risks from pre-election spending as a key driver this year for South Africa, Romania, Russia, El Salvador, Dominican Republic and Uruguay.



The ramifications could be felt well beyond this year. The Institute of International Finance (IIF) said the &#8220;tsunami&#8221; of 2024 elections could add to an already record glut of global debt estimated to have hit $310 trillion by the end of 2023.



&#8220;A sudden increase in government spending during this global elections cycle could further elevate interest (payments) for many countries,&#8221; warned Emre Tiftik, Director of Sustainable Research at the IIF, adding that this could create further volatility in markets.



Some fear this could spur a resurgence of so-called bond vigilantes, investors who punish profligate governments by selling their bonds, driving yields higher.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-currency-shivers">CURRENCY SHIVERS</h2>



Analysts at Citi, who also warn that the looming emerging markets election cycle might see &#8220;less policy discipline than investors would like&#8221; &#8211; have studied the short-term effects markets might have to contend with.



While some votes are bound to generate more volatility than others, currency markets are often the first to feel election nerves, especially in Latin America, according to Citi strategist Dirk Willer.



He points to a reliable pattern for Mexico&#8217;s peso that sees the currency weakening in the lead-up to the vote only to strengthen on the emergence of some kind of certainty once the election result seems reasonably established. Latin America&#8217;s second-largest economy is scheduled to hold elections on June 2 with the incumbent party&#8217;s candidate enjoying a healthy lead in opinion polls.



Evidence of the heavy election cycle shaping investment flows to equities already emerged in 2023, said Karim Chedid, head of EMEA iShares investment strategy at BlackRock.



&#8220;We are seeing an evolution of the EM trade from broad to more granular which I am keeping on my radar in 2024 because of the heavy election calendar,&#8221; said Chedid, singling out Mexico but also India.



The world&#8217;s most populous country is set to hold elections in April or May, with self-styled strong man Narendra Modi expected to win a third term as prime minister.



(Reporting by Karin Strohecker, additional reporting by Libby George and Jorgelina do Rosario, graphics by Sumanta Sen and Marc Jones, Editing by Hugh Lawson)

FILE PHOTO: Commuters pass by as posters of an election candidate hang on the street ahead of the general election in Dhaka

Emerging markets brace for wave of elections with fiscal discipline at stake

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="461" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107352936-1704115855740-gettyimages-1460414638-vcg111420025727-820x461.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-442452" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107352936-1704115855740-gettyimages-1460414638-vcg111420025727-820x461.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107352936-1704115855740-gettyimages-1460414638-vcg111420025727-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107352936-1704115855740-gettyimages-1460414638-vcg111420025727-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107352936-1704115855740-gettyimages-1460414638-vcg111420025727-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107352936-1704115855740-gettyimages-1460414638-vcg111420025727-1536x864.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107352936-1704115855740-gettyimages-1460414638-vcg111420025727.jpeg 1920w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">A worker tying copper wire rods before loading them onto a truck in Huai’an, Jiangsu Province of China. Vcg | Visual China Group | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



Copper prices are set to soar more than 75% over the next two years amid mining supply disruptions and higher demand for the metal, fueled by the push for renewable energy.&nbsp;



Rising demand driven by the green energy transition and a likely decline in the U.S. dollar in the second half of 2024 will push copper prices higher, according to a report by BMI, a Fitch Solutions research unit.



Markets are banking on the U.S. Federal Reserve to cut rates this year which will weaken the dollar and in turn make the greenback-priced copper more attractive to foreign buyers.



“The positive view for copper is more on macro factors,” Bank of America Securities’ head of Asia -Pacific basic materials, Matty Zhao, told CNBC, citing likely Fed rate cuts and a weaker U.S. dollar.



Additionally, at the recent COP28 climate change conference, more than 60 countries backed a plan to triple global renewable energy capacity by 2030, a move that Citibank says “would be extremely bullish for copper.”



In a December report, the investment bank forecast that the higher renewable energy targets would boost copper demand by extra 4.2 million tons by 2030.



This would potentially push copper prices to $15,000 a ton in 2025, the report added, way higher than the record peak of $10,730 per ton scaled in March last year.



“This assumes a very soft landing in the U.S. and Europe, an earlier global growth recovery, significant China easing,” Citi analysts said, while also emphasizing on continued investments in the energy transition sector.&nbsp;



A growing economy tends to boost demand for copper, which is used in electrical equipment and industrial machinery. The metal’s demand is considered a proxy for economic health.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-low-supply-high-demand"><a></a>Low supply, high demand</h2>



Copper on the London Metal Exchange was last trading at $8,559 a ton.



The base metal is a linchpin in the energy transition ecosystem, and is integral to manufacturing electric vehicles, power grids and wind turbines.



Other analysts see a bullish run for copper due to mining disruptions, with Goldman Sachs expecting a deficit of over half a million tons in 2024.



Last November, First Quantum Minerals halted production at the Cobre Panamá, one of the world’s largest copper mines, following a Supreme Court ruling and nationwide protests over environmental concerns. Anglo American, a major producer, said it would cut copper output in 2024 and 2025 as it seeks to cut costs.



“The supply cuts reinforce our view that the copper market is entering a period of much clearer tightening,” wrote Goldman’s analysts, who see copper prices hitting $10,000 per ton within the year, and much higher in 2025.



The winners of the copper rush will be mainly Chile and Peru, BMI estimates. Both countries have large reserves of green transition minerals such as lithium and copper that are poised to benefit from increased investment and higher export demand. Chile holds around 21% of global copper reserves.



“Our confidence that copper substantially re-rates into 2025 [of $15,000 per ton average] is now substantially higher,” Goldman&nbsp;said.



Lower supply also means that new copper smelters coming online will have a shortage of concentrates to work with, said S&amp;P Global’s Senior Copper Analyst Wang Ruilin.&nbsp;



Copper ores are extracted from the earth and then converted into copper concentrates. From there they are sent to smelters to be purified into refined copper, which sets the benchmark LME price.



“Copper smelters will see a supply shortage of concentrate starting in 2024, and the forecast deficits in the concentrate market is expected to deepen in 2025–27,” she told CNBC via email.

107352936-1704115855740-gettyimages-1460414638-vcg111420025727

Copper could skyrocket over 75% to record highs by 2025 — brace for deficits, analysts say

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="810" height="540" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/download-62.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-423481" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/download-62.jpg 810w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/download-62-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/download-62-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/download-62-768x512.jpg 768w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 810px) 100vw, 810px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: A person holds a new 1000 naira note as the Central Bank of Nigeria releases the notes to the public through the banks in Abuja, Nigeria, December 15, 2022. REUTERS/Afolabi Sotunde</figcaption></figure>



ABUJA, Dec 29 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Nigeria&#8217;s foreign exchange reserves dipped to a six-year low of $32.87 billion at the end of December, data showed on Friday, as the central bank sold dollars to try to prop up the ailing naira currency.



A backlog of unsettled forwards, undelivered promises of dollar inflows and a two-decade peak in inflation have translated into a tumultuous year for the naira, which has lost over 50% of its value to become the third worst-performing global currency in 2023, said Kyle Chapman, FX markets analyst at London-based Ballinger &amp; Co.



This prompted the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to run down its foreign exchange reserves, which peaked at $47.63 billion in June 2018, to defend the naira. The dollar reserve of Africa&#8217;s biggest economy in December dwindled to a level last seen in September 2017, when it stood at $32.16 billion.



&#8220;The naira&#8217;s downwards momentum is likely to continue through much of 2024, and its ultimate trajectory will depend on whether the CBN&#8217;s rhetoric transforms into concrete policy moves that drive up the flow of U.S dollars into Nigeria and shore up trust in the official market,&#8221; Chapman said.



The naira last week touched a low of 1,248 naira on official market and sold for 845 naira on Friday.



It was quoted at 1,210 naira on the parallel market while on the forwards market the naira sold for 1,037.50 to dollar for one-month settlement&nbsp;NGNNDFOR=.



CBN Governor Olayemi Cardoso has said he would allow market forces to determine exchange rates while setting clear, transparent and harmonised rules governing market operations.



&#8220;If the CBN&#8217;s promised measures materialise and (President Bola) Tinubu&#8217;s government enacts structural changes to increase oil production or to drive foreign investment, there is plenty of opportunity for the naira to lift from its record lows,&#8221; Chapman said.



&#8220;But a quick fix is unlikely, and further depreciation will come to counteract supply and demand imbalances.&#8221;



(Reporting by Chijioke Ohuocha; Editing by Nick Macfie)

download-62

Nigeria’s FX reserves dip to six-year low as naira falls

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="575" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/NWWPQTPSUBJFTJAOHNDF3BPMFA-820x575.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-440852" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/NWWPQTPSUBJFTJAOHNDF3BPMFA-820x575.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/NWWPQTPSUBJFTJAOHNDF3BPMFA-300x210.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/NWWPQTPSUBJFTJAOHNDF3BPMFA-128x90.jpg 128w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/NWWPQTPSUBJFTJAOHNDF3BPMFA-768x539.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/NWWPQTPSUBJFTJAOHNDF3BPMFA-1536x1077.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/NWWPQTPSUBJFTJAOHNDF3BPMFA-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Opposition supporters prepare to demonstrate, while riot police amass around Congolese opposition presidential candidate Martin Fayulu&#8217;s headquarters to block a protest by the opposition who are calling for a re-run of last week&#8217;s national election, in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo December 27, 2023. REUTERS/Benoit Nyemba</figcaption></figure>



Dec 29 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Democratic Republic of Congo is gradually releasing preliminary results from the Dec. 20 presidential election following a chaotic vote and an unscheduled ballot extension that have led the opposition to demand a re-run.



Below are the latest figures from the election commission, known as the CENI, along with details about how the commission is counting votes and releasing its tally, and why critics are disputing the results.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-what-do-the-latest-results-show">WHAT DO THE LATEST RESULTS SHOW?</h2>



The latest CENI update on Thursday showed President Tshisekedi well ahead of his 18 challengers, with just over 76% of around 12.5 million votes counted so far.



Businessman Moise Katumbi and former energy executive Martin Fayulu stand in second and third place respectively with almost 17% and more than 4% of the vote.



The provisional tally so far is based on results from 46,422 out of almost 76,000 polling stations, according to the CENI.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-how-are-they-being-released">HOW ARE THEY BEING RELEASED?</h2>



The CENI set up a results centre in Kinshasa called Basolo &#8211; &#8220;Truth&#8221; in the Lingala language &#8211; from where it has issued updates on a near-daily basis since Dec. 22.



The commission refers to these results as trends and has not yet said how many of Congo&#8217;s 44 million registered voters participated in the election.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-how-is-the-ceni-counting-votes">HOW IS THE CENI COUNTING VOTES?</h2>



According to Congolese electoral law, results released by the CENI are meant to be based on tallies of the paper votes cast in each polling station that have been signed off by witnesses and observers. This is meant to improve transparency and allow results to be easily double-checked if contested.



But the CENI president has told local media provisional results released so far have been based on a combination of such tallies and figures taken straight from voting machines.



In a report on the election released on Dec. 28, the main independent CENCO-ECC election monitoring group urged the CENI only to publish results based on correctly consolidated tallies from local centres.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-why-are-critics-disputing-the-results">WHY ARE CRITICS DISPUTING THE RESULTS?</h2>



Opposition presidential candidates say election day irregularities, including the CENI&#8217;s unscheduled extension of some voting beyond Dec. 20, have compromised the credibility of the results, calling for them to be annulled.



The CENCO-ECC observer mission and another local election monitoring group, which together deployed thousands of observers, have also highlighted issues on election day and during the vote-count they say throw the integrity of the results into question.



The CENI has acknowledged there were delays on election day, but says it is still on track to deliver a free and fair vote.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-when-could-we-get-full-results">WHEN COULD WE GET FULL RESULTS?</h2>



The CENI is scheduled to release full provisional results from the presidential vote by Dec. 31.



(Writing by Anait Miridzhanian; Editing by Alex Richardson)

Congo deploys riot police ahead of banned anti-election protest

FACTBOX-The latest results in Congo’s disputed election

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="615" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/DL5CS5S3DVPC7KEA5MAUSUW264-820x615.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-440448" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/DL5CS5S3DVPC7KEA5MAUSUW264-820x615.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/DL5CS5S3DVPC7KEA5MAUSUW264-300x225.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/DL5CS5S3DVPC7KEA5MAUSUW264-120x90.jpg 120w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/DL5CS5S3DVPC7KEA5MAUSUW264-768x576.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/DL5CS5S3DVPC7KEA5MAUSUW264-1536x1152.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/DL5CS5S3DVPC7KEA5MAUSUW264-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: United Arab Emirates Minister of State for Foreign Trade Thani Al Zeyoudi gestures during an interview with Reuters in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, June 30, 2022. REUTERS/Abdel Hadi Ramahi</figcaption></figure>



DUBAI, Dec 28 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;The United Arab Emirates has completed negotiations for a bilateral trade agreement with the Republic of Congo, the second such deal announced with an African state in a week.



&#8220;The breadth of the UAE&#8217;s trade network continues to broaden as we conclude negotiations toward a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement with the Republic of Congo-Brazzaville &#8211; a thriving economy in West-Central Africa and valued trade and investment partner,&#8221; Thani Al Zeyoudi, UAE trade minister posted on X, formerly Twitter.



Since 2021, the UAE has initiated a raft of bilateral trade, investment and cooperation deals on its own &#8211; called Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreements &#8211; to bolster efforts aimed at diversifying income sources and economic sectors.



Last week, the UAE, a major global oil exporter and OPEC member, completed talks for a trade deal with Mauritius, its first with an African country.



(Reporting by Jana Choukeir; writing by Rachna Uppal; editing by Miral Fahmy)

United Arab Emirates Minister of State for Foreign Trade Thani Al Zeyoudi

UAE concludes trade talks with Republic of Congo

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="517" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/GNZ4EKIZHBJMHAHGTKTLUHIQ54-820x517.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-415106" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/GNZ4EKIZHBJMHAHGTKTLUHIQ54-820x517.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/GNZ4EKIZHBJMHAHGTKTLUHIQ54-300x189.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/GNZ4EKIZHBJMHAHGTKTLUHIQ54-143x90.jpg 143w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/GNZ4EKIZHBJMHAHGTKTLUHIQ54-768x484.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/GNZ4EKIZHBJMHAHGTKTLUHIQ54.jpg 1200w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">A 3D-printed oil pump jack is seen in front of displayed OPEC logo in this illustration picture, April 14, 2020. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



LONDON, Dec 21 (Reuters) &#8211; Angola has said it is leaving the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) with effect from Jan. 1 2024, after exits from Ecuador in 2020 and Qatar in 2019.



Angola, which joined OPEC in 2007, produces about 1.1 million barrels per day, compared with 28 million bpd for the whole group.



Here are details on OPEC members, market share and Angola&#8217;s oil production.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-opec-members-market-share">OPEC MEMBERS, MARKET SHARE</h2>



OPEC was founded in 1960 by Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Venezuela, Iran and Iraq. Angola joined the group in 2007. Since 2017, OPEC has worked with Russia and other non-members as part of the OPEC+ group to manage the market, in whose agreements Angola participated.



Angola&#8217;s departure from OPEC will leave it with 12 members and crude oil production of about 27 million bpd, some 27% of the 102 million bpd world oil market.



This further reduces OPEC&#8217;s share of the world market which stood at 34% in 2010.



As well as the departure of some members, OPEC and OPEC+ decisions to cut production and rising output of non-OPEC countries including the United States have weighed on its market share.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-angola-s-oil-production-quota-dispute">ANGOLA&#8217;S OIL PRODUCTION, QUOTA DISPUTE</h2>



In recent years, Angola has been unable to meet its OPEC+ output quota because of declining investment.



For 2024, OPEC+ lowered Angola&#8217;s oil output target at a meeting last month to 1.11 million bpd. This followed a review by outside analysts to verify production figures for Nigeria, Angola and Congo.



Angola, which had sought a quota of 1.18 million bpd, did not agree with this and sent a note of protest to OPEC.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-other-countries-that-left-opec">OTHER COUNTRIES THAT LEFT OPEC</h2>



Angola would join other nations with relatively small oil output that have left in recent years.



Qatar in 2019 quit OPEC to focus on gas, which some analysts interpreted as a swipe at Saudi Arabia, the oil exporting group&#8217;s de facto leader.



Ecuador left in 2020 and Indonesia suspended its membership in 2016.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-countries-that-have-joined-opec">COUNTRIES THAT HAVE JOINED OPEC</h2>



Some small producers have also joined OPEC in recent years. Equatorial Guinea became a full member in 2017 and Gabon re-joined in 2016. Congo became a full member in 2018.



(Reporting by Alex Lawler in London, additional reporting by Wendell Roelf in Cape Town, editing by Barbara Lewis)

GNZ4EKIZHBJMHAHGTKTLUHIQ54

FACTBOX-Angola to quit OPEC, reducing membership to 12 countries

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Stock-value-rising-and-falling-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-404443" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Stock-value-rising-and-falling-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Stock-value-rising-and-falling-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Stock-value-rising-and-falling-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Stock-value-rising-and-falling.jpg 1254w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Macro view of a screen of trading terminal with abstract financial graph and digits. Trading and forex concept. 3D Rendering</figcaption></figure>



Dec 22 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Emerging markets stocks receded on Friday and were set for a weekly decline, while currencies edged up, as a rally prompted by the U.S. Federal Reserve&#8217;s dovish narrative somewhat abated ahead of the Christmas holidays.



The MSCI&#8217;s gauge of emerging market stocks&nbsp;.MSCIEF&nbsp;fell 0.5% and was on track for a weekly loss of 0.8%, while a basket of currencies&nbsp;.MIEM00000CUS&nbsp;was up 0.2% against the dollar by 0931 GMT.



The benchmark stocks and currencies index had gained 2.7% and 0.7% respectively in the previous week as the Fed hinted at prospects of likely rate-cuts for next year.



&#8220;The shift from the Fed, it&#8217;s really reopened the possibility of kind of positive returns&#8221; said James Wilson, EM sovereign debt strategist at ING.



&#8220;Overall, for now, many asset classes are kind of picking up on the positivity and it would seem pretty much everything rally all round across (emerging market) equities, fixed income and more kind of risk-sensitive assets, and bonds as well,&#8221; added Wilson.



However, risk sentiment dipped in the last full-trading week of the year after pushback on interest rate cuts from some Fed policymakers, while investors awaited the U.S. core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) data, as they look for more cues on the rate outlook.



In Asia, Hong Kong shares .HIS slid 1.7% after China unveiled new draft rules for online video games, while the Shanghai Composite index .SSEC slipped 0.1% after rising earlier in the session, as five of China&#8217;s largest state banks lowered interest rates on some deposits.



Meanwhile, in Central Europe, the Czech crown&nbsp;EURCZK=&nbsp;inched up 0.1% against the euro a day after the Czech National Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps), while the Polish zloty&nbsp;EURPLN=&nbsp;was steady ahead of unemployment data.



Elsewhere, Turkery&#8217;s lira TYRTOM=D3 hit fresh lows of 29.2155 per dollar, while the country&#8217;s central bank lifted its key interest rate by 250 bps to 42.5% on Thursday as expected.



The number of foreign visitors arriving in Turkey in November dipped 1.02% from a year earlier to 2.53 million, data showed.



In South America, Argentine sovereign debt rose and stocks dipped after early gains on Thursday, as market participants cautiously welcomed an emergency presidential decree ending limits on exports and taking other steps to deregulate an ailing economy.



(Reporting by Siddarth S in Bengaluru; Editing by Varun H K)

Macro view of a screen of trading terminal with abstract financial graph and digits. Trading and forex concept. 3D Rendering

Stocks set for weekly declines as rate-cut rally dissipates; FX inch up

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="461" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/1x-1-3-820x461.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-400703" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/1x-1-3-820x461.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/1x-1-3-300x169.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/1x-1-3-768x432.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/1x-1-3-1536x864.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/1x-1-3.jpg 2000w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">An OPEC branded flag sits on a table ahead of the 169th Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) meeting in Vienna, Austria, on Thursday, June 2, 2016. Saudi Arabia is ready to consider a surprise deal with fellow OPEC members, attempting to mend divisions that had grown so wide many dubbed the group as good as dead. Photographer: Akos Stiller/Bloomberg via Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



LUANDA/LONDON, Dec 21 (Reuters) &#8211; Angola is leaving the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) because membership is not serving its interests, oil minister Diamantino Azevedo said on Thursday.



Angola, which joined OPEC in 2007, produces about 1.1 million barrels of oil per day, compared with 28 million bpd for the whole group.



Confirming an earlier report by local news agency ANGOP, Azevedo told public television the decision to leave was because OPEC membership was not serving Angola&#8217;s interests, but did not give further details.



Oil prices extended losses on the news, with Brent prices down over $1 to $78.50 a barrel by 1250 GMT.



Angola&#8217;s exit is a setback for OPEC and its allies, just as the group tries to get members to cut output to support prices.



Last month, Azevedo&#8217;s office protested a decision by OPEC to cut its production quota for 2024. Bloomberg also quoted Angola&#8217;s OPEC Governor Estevao Pedro as saying the country was unhappy with its 2024 target and did not plan to stick to it.



Disagreements over African output quotas had earlier helped delay a meeting of the wider OPEC+ oil producer group. (Reporting by Miguel Gomes in Luanda, Ahmad Ghaddar and Alex Lawler in London; writing by Bhargav Acharya and Nellie Peyton; Editing by Alexander Winning, Jason Neely and Catherine Evans)

The 169th Organization Of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) Conference

Angola says it is leaving OPEC

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="517" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/106944604-16321717072021-09-20t205319z_656748898_rc2wtp9oerrm_rtrmadp_0_worldbank-ethics-report-820x517.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-416545" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/106944604-16321717072021-09-20t205319z_656748898_rc2wtp9oerrm_rtrmadp_0_worldbank-ethics-report-820x517.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/106944604-16321717072021-09-20t205319z_656748898_rc2wtp9oerrm_rtrmadp_0_worldbank-ethics-report-300x189.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/106944604-16321717072021-09-20t205319z_656748898_rc2wtp9oerrm_rtrmadp_0_worldbank-ethics-report-143x90.jpeg 143w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/106944604-16321717072021-09-20t205319z_656748898_rc2wtp9oerrm_rtrmadp_0_worldbank-ethics-report-768x484.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/106944604-16321717072021-09-20t205319z_656748898_rc2wtp9oerrm_rtrmadp_0_worldbank-ethics-report-1536x969.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/106944604-16321717072021-09-20t205319z_656748898_rc2wtp9oerrm_rtrmadp_0_worldbank-ethics-report-scaled.jpeg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">A participant stands near a logo of World Bank at the International Monetary Fund &#8211; World Bank Annual Meeting 2018 in Nusa Dua, Bali, Indonesia, October 12, 2018.
Johannes Christo | Reuters</figcaption></figure>



NAIROBI, Dec 21 (Reuters) &#8211; The World Bank has approved two separate loans worth about $1.14 billion combined to Tanzania to support its private sector, develop its commercial capital and fight effects of climate change, the bank said.



The first tranche of financing worth $750 million &#8211; called Development Policy Financing &#8211; is meant to finance reforms such as making business licensing faster and also broaden access to cheap credit to accelerate private sector growth, the bank said in a statement late on Wednesday.



The second lot of $385 million will go towards financing infrastructure and building institutions that will help Tanzania&#8217;s commercial capital Dar es Salaam to cope with the effects of climate change, the bank said.



&#8220;Tanzania remains very vulnerable to climate change and is limited in its preparedness to adapt and respond to the adverse impacts,&#8221; Nathan Belete, World Bank country director for Malawi, Zambia, Zimbabwe and Tanzania, was quoted as saying in the statement.



Out of the east African country&#8217;s 44.39 trillion Tanzanian shillings budget for 2023/24 (July-June) the government expects to borrow 2.1 trillion shillings from external sources.



World Bank&#8217;s loans typically carry low to zero interest with long repayment periods. (Reporting by George Obulutsa Writing by Elias Buryabarema Editing by Bhargav Acharya and Mark Potter)

106944604-16321717072021-09-20t205319z_656748898_rc2wtp9oerrm_rtrmadp_0_worldbank-ethics-report

World Bank approves new Tanzania loans worth $1.14 bln

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="575" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Congo-votes-in-extended-chaotic-election-as-opposition-seeks-rerun-820x575.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-438747" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Congo-votes-in-extended-chaotic-election-as-opposition-seeks-rerun-820x575.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Congo-votes-in-extended-chaotic-election-as-opposition-seeks-rerun-300x210.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Congo-votes-in-extended-chaotic-election-as-opposition-seeks-rerun-128x90.jpg 128w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Congo-votes-in-extended-chaotic-election-as-opposition-seeks-rerun-768x539.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Congo-votes-in-extended-chaotic-election-as-opposition-seeks-rerun-1536x1077.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Congo-votes-in-extended-chaotic-election-as-opposition-seeks-rerun-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Democratic Republic of the Congo&#8217;s President Felix Tshisekedi casts his ballot at a polling station during the presidential election, in Kinshasa, the Democratic Republic of Congo December 20, 2023. REUTERS/Zohra Bensemra</figcaption></figure>



KINSHASA, Dec 21 (Reuters) &#8211; The Democratic Republic of Congo voted on Thursday on the second day of a chaotic and in parts violent general election after authorities extended opening hours for polling stations that failed to open the previous day.



The elections across Africa&#8217;s second-largest country were disrupted on Wednesday by delays in delivering election kits and malfunctioning equipment. People also struggled to find their names on registers, while violence caused chaos in other places.



The decision by the election commission, known as CENI, to extend the vote was rejected by five presidential candidates who have called for a rerun.



At stake is not just the legitimacy of the next administration. Congolese election disputes often spark violent unrest with potentially far-reaching consequences. Congo is the world&#8217;s third-largest copper producer, and the top producer of cobalt, a battery component needed for the green transition.



Early on Thursday in Kabare in Congo&#8217;s restive eastern region, 21-year-old Jean Claude Irenge Kalumuna was among the first residents to cast his vote.



&#8220;It makes me happy because yesterday I left here angry,&#8221; Kalumuna said. &#8220;I condemn this way of operating by the CENI with all this disorder, which proves that they were not ready, but they led people to believe that everything was ready.&#8221;



At a school in the capital Kinshasa, Reuters reporters saw voting taking place in one classroom, while vote-counting from Wednesday was under way in another.



Throughout Wednesday, observers warned about delays and failures to open polling stations and other issues, including malfunctioning electronic voting systems.



Speaking to reporters on Wednesday, CENI president Denis Kadima acknowledged that many polling stations had opened late and some not at all.



He said that around 70% of voters had been able to vote and that the delays would not affect the credibility of the process.



Five opposition candidates, including top challengers Martin Fayulu and Nobel Laureate Denis Mukwege, said the commission had no constitutional or legal right to extend the vote.



They demanded &#8220;the reorganisation of these failed elections by a differently structured CENI&#8221; and at a date agreed by all stakeholders in a joint statement late on Wednesday.



Congo&#8217;s former ruling coalition, the Common Front for Congo of former president Joseph Kabila, called the elections a &#8220;parody&#8221; that had brought shame on the country.



It said that half the polling stations had not opened on Wednesday and two-thirds of those that did faced problems.



&#8220;What we witnessed today was a genuine shipwreck of the electoral process,&#8221; the coalition said in a statement late on Wednesday. It asked its members to stand by for further instructions on actions to be taken.



The tumult of election day followed a campaign marred by political violence and repeated warnings from the opposition and observers about a lack of transparency. Their concerns included issues with the voter list and illegible ID cards.



For months, the electoral commission rejected the opposition&#8217;s allegations of mismanagement and fraud. It insisted it could deliver a free and fair vote as promised, even as critics flagged irregularities they said would jeopardise the legitimacy of the results.



(Reporting by Crispin Kyala, Ange Kasongo, Sonia Rolley and Christophe Van Der Perre Writing by Bate Felix Editing by Nellie Peyton and Nick Macfie)

Congo holds presidential election  in Kinshasa

Congo votes in extended, chaotic election as opposition seeks rerun

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="551" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/W3TRJMXBPRNATIXO27SFJRC77U-820x551.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-422104" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/W3TRJMXBPRNATIXO27SFJRC77U-820x551.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/W3TRJMXBPRNATIXO27SFJRC77U-300x202.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/W3TRJMXBPRNATIXO27SFJRC77U-134x90.jpg 134w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/W3TRJMXBPRNATIXO27SFJRC77U-768x516.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/W3TRJMXBPRNATIXO27SFJRC77U-1536x1032.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/W3TRJMXBPRNATIXO27SFJRC77U.jpg 1920w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">A participant stands near a logo of IMF at the International Monetary Fund &#8211; World Bank Annual Meeting 2018 in Nusa Dua, Bali, Indonesia, October 12, 2018. REUTERS/Johannes P. Christo</figcaption></figure>



JOHANNESBURG, Dec 20 (Reuters) &#8211; The International Monetary Fund&#8217;s board on Wednesday approved an immediate $187 million loan payout to Zambia and said the country was revising a restructuring proposal for $3 billion of bonds that official creditors had rejected last month.



It will be the third payout under the southern African country&#8217;s $1.3 billion Extended Credit Facility arrangement approved in August 2022.



One of the African continent&#8217;s largest copper producers, Zambia defaulted on its debts three years ago during the COVID-19 pandemic, and its restructuring efforts have been beset by delays.



Zambia suffered a major setback in November when its official creditors rejected a preliminary restructuring deal with bondholders over whether it offered comparable debt relief to what they had agreed to.



The IMF&#8217;s mission chief for Zambia, Mercedes Vera Martin, told reporters on a conference call that the conditions under which &#8220;comparability of treatment&#8221; would be met were still under deliberation by Zambia&#8217;s Official Creditor Committee (OCC).



In a question-and-answer document posted on its website, the IMF said Zambian authorities were further revising their Eurobond restructuring proposal to meet comparability of treatment requirements, which are defined by official creditors.



&#8220;While significant progress has been achieved, some adjustments still need to be made until both program parameters and comparability of treatment, as required by official bilateral creditors, are met,&#8221; the IMF said in the document.



Western officials in the past have accused China of holding up the restructuring process, something Beijing consistently denied, while international bondholders complained about being shut out of negotiations.



&#8220;It is good that the OCC can voice their concerns about meeting comparability of treatment,&#8221; said the IMF&#8217;s Martin.



But, she said, the protracted restructuring negotiations were taking a toll on Zambia&#8217;s economic recovery, after it was hit by the pandemic and the default. Its kwacha currency has depreciated sharply against the dollar and inflation has risen in recent months.



Zambia&#8217;s government said the IMF board approval of the next loan payout was an endorsement of its reforms and said it would boost investor confidence. (Savage reported from London and Miridzhanian from Johannesburg; Additional reporting by Chris Mfula in Lusaka and Nellie Peyton in Johannesburg; Editing by Alexander Winning and Leslie Adler)

W3TRJMXBPRNATIXO27SFJRC77U

IMF releases $187 mln Zambia payout, says restructuring proposal being revised

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Nigerian-singer-Ayra-Starr-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-438660" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Nigerian-singer-Ayra-Starr-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Nigerian-singer-Ayra-Starr-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Nigerian-singer-Ayra-Starr-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Nigerian-singer-Ayra-Starr-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Nigerian-singer-Ayra-Starr-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Nigerian-singer-Ayra-Starr-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">NEWARK, NEW JERSEY &#8211; SEPTEMBER 12: Ayra Starr attends the 2023 MTV Video Music Awards at Prudential Center on September 12, 2023 in Newark, New Jersey. (Photo by Jeff Kravitz/Getty Images for MTV)</figcaption></figure>



In recent years, the uptake of African musical talent globally has been extraordinary and 2023 was no exception. With the recent announcement from the Recording Academy on the nominees from Africa for the 2024 Grammy Awards, the continent has entered the global hall of fame.



Although this is not the first time African musicians have graced the Grammys, for 2024, Nigerian Afrobeats stars Damini Ebunoluwa Ogulu (Burna Boy), Ahmed Ololade (Asake), David Adedeji Adeleke (Davido), and Oyinkansola Sarah Aderibigbe (Ayra Starr) have all netted in the nominations.



In a statement released in November, the Academy announced three newly-added categories for the 2024 Grammys, one of which is the Best African Music Performance award, hailed a breakthrough acknowledging the commercial and cultural prowess of African music.



“Giving African music its own category would highlight and celebrate the diversity and richness of Africa,” Shawn Thwaites, project manager at the Recording Academy, said at a roundtable. “This is a great step forward!”



The youngest nominee on this list and lone South African artist is 21-year-old Tyla Laura Seethal, with her viral song, Water, already nominated for two South African Music Awards.



Seethal’s recent and fast climb to the top is testament to the excellent emerging pool of talent in the industry.



When you open the explore pages of video-sharing social media platforms such as TikTok or Instagram Reels or even YouTube shorts, hit songs like Yahyuppiyah from Lungelihle Zwane (Uncle Waffles), Tony Duardo and Justin99, and Unavailable by Davido featuring Musa Makamu (professionally known as Musa Keys) stream into your soundscapes. People from all over the world have taken to social media to ensure they get the energetic moves right for the vigorously viral songs.



Davin Phillips, Executive Director at Celebrity Services Africa (CSA), an agency that specializes in brand marketing in the culture and entertainment space, says that social media has amplified the &nbsp;reach of African artists.



“I think social media, maybe more technology, has allowed us to actually go into other regions across the continent that previously didn’t have access to certain streaming or publishing. We’ve been able to identify the continent a lot more and bring it together. Also, another thing, as we know, in any emerging market, sometimes we only give our own artists the recognition, but we are seeing the international community recognize them,” Phillips says.



“Social media has amplified the careers of so many artists on the continent, so its role cannot be understated,” adds Phiona Okumu, Head of Music for sub-Saharan Africa at Spotify. “Reaching a global audience, instantly, looked different a few years ago and required significant resources. But now on the back of social media, accessibility has taken a new form for artists.”



Data shows that social media platform TikTok has over 1.677 billion users globally out of which 1.1 billion are its monthly active users as of 2023; South Africa alone makes up about 11.83 million of those users. Instagram’s data also shows there are 2.35 billion active users, and 14.9 million of those users are reportedly from Western Africa.



This has allowed young artists like eSwatini- born DJ, Uncle Waffles, Nigeria’s Rema, and even South Africa’s Musa Keys to take the world by storm in what feels like the blink of an eye. “The pool of artists is a lot younger,” concurs advocate Katlego Malatji, Head of Legal and Business Affairs at Sony Music Africa. “I think the internet has created quite an opportunity for a lot of young acts and a lot more diverse acts to come out with different interpretations and variations of various sounds.”



<figure class="wp-block-pullquote"><blockquote>“Sustainability being obviously a different question altogether as to how sustainable are some of these careers because of the lack of depth that comes with being young; but at the very least, they’re getting their moment” <cite>Katlego Malatji</cite></blockquote></figure>



But a big concern for Malatji, especially from a revenue perspective, is if social media offers a viable and sustainable future for the artists.



“Sustainability being obviously a different question altogether as to how sustainable are some of these careers because of the lack of depth that comes with being young; but at the very least, they’re getting their moment,” Malatji says.



“The challenge is that a lot of the songs that I see go viral are not really listenable songs, like we can’t just be chilling at home [and listening to it],” Amapiano artist Makamu says. “You always have to hear that specific part of the song which is kind of dangerous for some songs, however, some people really need viral moments and some don’t.”



Be that as it may, Dataxis however has predicted that Africa’s annual music streaming revenues will grow (from $92.9 million in 2021) to $314.6 million by 2026. Recently, PricewaterhouseCoopers’ (PwC) annual report, Africa’s Entertainment &amp; Media Outlook 2023-2027, highlighted that the music streaming market will continue its march across three of Africa’s biggest markets; South Africa, Kenya and Nigeria. Marketing streaming subscription revenue in South Africa alone is set to rise at 10.5% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to reach R1.1 billion ($58,494,304) in 2027.



Spotify’s Okumu adds that in 2022, revenues generated by Nigerian artists from Spotify alone reached over NGN11 billion (approximately $14.3 million). While Nigerian music industry revenues overall have grown 63% from 2021 to 2022, according to the International Federation of the Phonographic Industry (IFPI), revenues generated by Nigerian artists, from Spotify, grew 74% over this same time period. Similarly, in 2022, revenues generated by South African artists from Spotify reached nearly R200 million (approximately $10 million) which is three times what it was four years ago.



“These figures only represent a part of the picture. Spotify is one of many music-streaming services that generate revenue for the music industry, and streaming only makes up a portion of all industry revenues,” Okumu adds.



“Africa has incredible creativity that people in Europe and the US marvel at once they get to know about it,” two-time Grammy- award winner Wouter Kellerman says. “I’m very upbeat about the future of African culture and music.”

2023 MTV Video Music Awards – Arrivals

The Rise And Influence Of African Music On The Global Stage

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Global-banks-see-no-recession-US-companies-are-more-circumspect-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-438421" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Global-banks-see-no-recession-US-companies-are-more-circumspect-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Global-banks-see-no-recession-US-companies-are-more-circumspect-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Global-banks-see-no-recession-US-companies-are-more-circumspect-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Global-banks-see-no-recession-US-companies-are-more-circumspect-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Global-banks-see-no-recession-US-companies-are-more-circumspect-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Global-banks-see-no-recession-US-companies-are-more-circumspect-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">The Wall Street sign is pictured at the New York Stock exchange (NYSE) in the Manhattan borough of New York City, New York, U.S., March 9, 2020. REUTERS/Carlo Allegri/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



SINGAPORE, Dec 20 (Reuters) &#8211; Heading into 2024, analysts say the U.S. recession they&#8217;d been forecasting for two years isn&#8217;t coming anymore. Everyone else, from companies to investors, is still bracing for a slowdown caused by tepid consumer demand.



Dissonance between the habitually bullish investment bank analysts and the more circumspect money managers is not new. What&#8217;s different this time is the level of prudence and caution from some top companies as they outline their plans for next year.



Real money managers are in no doubt about which side to trust. After months of being wrong footed, sell-side analysts are a bit too bullish about growth prospects, Fed rate cuts and a consumption recovery, they say.



&#8220;Take a grain of salt maybe to measuring the efficacy of some of these sell-side forecasts,&#8221; says Patrick McDonough, a portfolio manager for PGIM Quantitative Solutions. &#8220;I would be a little bit more on the side of the companies.



Consensus forecasts from major banks, including Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, UBS and Barclays, are for global growth to be constrained in 2024 by elevated interest rates, pricier oil and a weakened China, but with low odds for a recession. A year ago, many banks were forecasting a U.S. recession.



Businesses are sounding more grim than they did last year. In its collection of management commentary from 150 earnings calls in the third-quarter reporting season, Deutsche Bank last month said companies broadly characterized demand as being somewhat weak, but not alarmingly so. Companies have continued to cut inventories as they adjust to sluggish demand for goods.



The words used by companies to describe demand included soft, sluggish, slow, lackluster, choppy, muted, constrained, challenging, weak, pressured and uneven, Deutsche said.



Retailer Walmart said earlier this month that while it has been surprised by the resilience of the consumer this year in the face of rising prices, that behaviour was changing and it was turning cautious.



Walmart&#8217;s chief financial officer John David Rainey told a Morgan Stanley consumer and retail conference earlier this month the firm wasn&#8217;t trying to ring an alarm bell, but that caution was &#8220;certainly a departure from what we saw in the first three quarters of the year&#8221;.



In its latest earnings transcript, discount chain Dollar General said gross profit was down, interest expenses had climbed and that it anticipated &#8220;customer spending may continue to be constrained as we head into 2024, especially in discretionary categories.&#8221;



Consumer giant Procter &amp; Gamble sounded a more optimistic note. Andre Schulten, the company&#8217;s chief financial officer, recently said P&amp;G was able to grow its share of volume and value in U.S. markets in the latest quarter, noting the &#8220;consumer remains strong.



The disconnect does not perturb fund managers. What matters to them however is whether the Federal Reserve manages to avert recession and yet contain inflation, without hurting consumers.



After leaving markets guessing for months, the Fed&#8217;s most recent update shows it recognizes that need for balance and that officials are sensitive to the risks of over-tightening policy and pushing the economy into a faster than necessary slowdown.



Several companies are already feeling the slowdown.



&#8220;The consumer is starting to slow down a little bit and the consumer-based companies, which really are almost all the big companies at this point, are starting to talk about that,&#8221; said PGIM&#8217;s McDonough. The global asset manager has $1.27 trillion in assets.



Consumer spending has indeed been cooling, as per surveys from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A November survey from the Conference Board showed about two-thirds of consumers still perceived a recession to be &#8220;somewhat&#8221; or &#8220;very likely&#8221; to happen over the next year.



RECESSION IS COMING?



The past two years haven&#8217;t been easy for macro pundits trying to reconcile the drivers of a post-pandemic bounce and trillions of dollars worth of stimulus in global markets alongside hawkish central banks.



Indicators from manufacturing surveys to an inverted U.S. yield curve and a bumper fiscal spending plan all screamed slowdown, or even recession.



Reuters polls conducted through 2022 and until mid-2023 consistently showed economists&#8217; median probability for a U.S. recession within a year were above 60%. That probability is now closer to 45%.



&#8220;To be fair, it&#8217;s been a difficult year,&#8221; said Chris Rands, a senior portfolio manager with the global multi-asset team at Nikko Asset Management.



&#8220;If you were to go back and look historically, if you use U.S. lead indicators, for example, they&#8217;ve been telling you that the U.S. should have entered a recession 12 months ago.&#8221;



&#8220;But if you&#8217;ve been able to make that argument for 12 months, you&#8217;ve potentially got egg on your face.&#8221; Big banks forecast the global economy slowing in 2023, with a likely U.S. recession. Even the most bullish forecasts had the S&amp;P 500 rising about 9% in 2023. It has rallied 21% so far.



In 2022, sell-side analysts from major banks expected growth to stumble but for stocks to keep rising. The S&amp;P 500 fell 19% that year.



Forecasts for 2024 are more conservative, and laced with caveats. Even the most bullish Street forecasts for US stocks are for single-digit gains.



&#8220;Companies talk to their bankers and to economists and consultants, and so on. And so they are all getting the same picture, which is there&#8217;s going to be a slowdown,&#8221; said Deutsche Bank&#8217;s Thatte.



&#8220;They are biding their time and being cautious which makes sense. And so if growth picks up, they will respond accordingly.&#8221;



(Additional reporting by Rae Wee Graphics by Sarupya Ganguly; Editing by Anna Driver)

The Wall Street sign is pictured at the New York Stock exchange (NYSE) in the Manhattan borough of New York City

Global banks see no recession, US companies are more circumspect

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="728" height="477" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Ghanas-third-quarter-economic-growth-slows-to-2.0.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-438378" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Ghanas-third-quarter-economic-growth-slows-to-2.0.jpg 728w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Ghanas-third-quarter-economic-growth-slows-to-2.0-300x197.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Ghanas-third-quarter-economic-growth-slows-to-2.0-137x90.jpg 137w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 728px) 100vw, 728px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">A general view of Adabraka in Accra, Ghana, File. REUTERS/Luc Gnago/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



ACCRA, Dec 20 (Reuters) &#8211; Ghana&#8217;s economic growth slowed to 2.0% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2023 from 3.2% in the previous quarter, driven by a decline in the industrial sector, its statistics agency said on Wednesday.



The West African country is grappling with its worst economic crisis in a generation, with a sharply weaker cedi currency and double-digit price rises for consumers .



Contributing to the third-quarter slowdown were contractions in sub-sectors of industry such as mining and construction, the statistics agency said. Agriculture made a positive contribution, even though cocoa farming is having an unusually bad season.



Meanwhile producer inflation slowed to 2.0% year-on-year in November from a revised 9.7% in October, the statistics office said separately on Wednesday.



Consumer inflation also slowed last month, to 26.4% from 35.2% in October.



Ghana is negotiating a debt restructuring deal with its official creditors. It hopes to reach a deal soon to secure the next $600 million from the International Monetary Fund under a $3 billion rescue package. (Reporting by Christian Akorlie and Maxwell Akalaare Adombila; Writing by Nellie Peyton; Editing by Alexander Winning and Alex Richardson)

FILE PHOTO: A general view of Adabraka in Accra

Ghana’s third-quarter economic growth slows to 2.0%

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="524" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Congo-holds-presidential-election-opposition-alleging-fraud-820x524.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-438354" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Congo-holds-presidential-election-opposition-alleging-fraud-820x524.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Congo-holds-presidential-election-opposition-alleging-fraud-300x192.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Congo-holds-presidential-election-opposition-alleging-fraud-141x90.jpg 141w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Congo-holds-presidential-election-opposition-alleging-fraud-768x490.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Congo-holds-presidential-election-opposition-alleging-fraud-1536x981.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Congo-holds-presidential-election-opposition-alleging-fraud-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">People shop at a public market, ahead of the parliamentary and presidential elections that are scheduled for December 20, in Kinshasa, the Democratic Republic of Congo December 19, 2023. REUTERS/Zohra Bensemra</figcaption></figure>



KINSHASA/GOMA, Democratic Republic of Congo, Dec 20 (Reuters) &#8211; Democratic Republic of Congo was holding presidential and legislative elections on Wednesday after a chaotic campaign marred by opposition allegations of fraud, electoral violence, and logistical setbacks that could prevent many from voting.



At stake is not just the legitimacy of the next administration. Congolese election disputes often spark violent unrest with potentially far-reaching consequences. Congo is the world&#8217;s third largest copper producer, and the top producer of cobalt, a battery component needed for the green transition.



Delays were reported in several towns in Congo&#8217;s rebel-plagued east and in the capital Kinshasa, voting materials had not arrived at polling stations and voter lists were not published.



In the eastern cities of Goma and Beni, some people struggled to find their names on voter lists, which were only made available at their polling stations on Wednesday morning, according to Reuters witnesses.



&#8220;The last (election) wasn&#8217;t like this. We could find our names following an alphabetical order. But this time trying to verify your name is a headache for some of us who did not study. If we don&#8217;t get any help, we&#8217;ll go home,&#8221; resident Kahindo Katsotyo said.



In Bunia, also in eastern Congo, security forces fired warning shots to disperse protesters after a voting centre was vandalised and kits destroyed, a Reuters reporter said.



A provincial election commission official told journalists that people displaced by violence in the region had protested because they wanted to vote in their home towns.



For months, Congo&#8217;s national election commission has insisted it would deliver a free and fair vote as promised across Africa&#8217;s second-largest country, even as independent observers and critics flag irregularities they say will jeopardise the legitimacy of the results.



About 44 million Congolese are registered to take part in the voting, which also includes regional ballots.



As voting day neared, the authorities sought extra helicopters, raising concerns about the commission&#8217;s ability to open polling stations in areas otherwise unreachable due to bad roads or a lack of security.



Full provisional results are expected by Dec. 31.



ELECTORAL TRANSPARENCY



President Felix Tshisekedi is competing against 18 opposition challengers in the hope of a second term running the mineral-rich yet poverty-stricken nation.



&#8220;I have asked you to give me strength to continue the work that we have started,&#8221; Tshisekedi said in his final rally on Monday, promising to expand a free education policy if elected.



Opposition candidates have wooed voters with pledges to bring stability, peace, and the economic development they say was absent from Tshisekedi&#8217;s first term.



They and religious and civil society electoral observers have sounded the alarm about electoral transparency, highlighting issues including the voter list and illegible ID cards.



&#8220;It is evident that the greatest electoral fraud of the century is taking place,&#8221; Nobel Laureate and opposition candidate Denis Mukwege said on Monday. The election commission has repeatedly rejected the opposition&#8217;s allegations of fraud.



The election will be decided in a single round, requiring a simple majority of the vote to win. The final run-up to the vote has been particularly fraught.



Two parliamentary candidates were killed in separate incidents on Dec. 15 &#8211; part of a spate of election-related violence condemned by human rights groups and the European Union.



Ahead of election day in Kinshasa, some locals were not convinced their vote would count. &#8220;Every time we vote, we are disappointed, but if I had to vote, it would be for a change,&#8221; said 43-year-old Lucie Mpiana, who is unemployed.



Polls are due to close at 1600 GMT.



(Additional reporting by Sonia Rolley, Yassin Kombi, Fiston Mahamba, Erikas Mwisi Kambale and Crispin Kyala; Writing by Alessandra Prentice and Bate Felix; Editing by Sandra Male, Gerry Doyle, Sofia Christensen and Alison Williams)

People shop at a public market, ahead of the parliamentary and presidential elections that are scheduled for December 20, in Kinshasa

Congo holds presidential election, opposition alleging fraud

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="592" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/GettyImages-1234493050-1-820x592.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-423201" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/GettyImages-1234493050-1-820x592.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/GettyImages-1234493050-1-300x217.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/GettyImages-1234493050-1-125x90.jpg 125w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/GettyImages-1234493050-1-768x554.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/GettyImages-1234493050-1-1536x1109.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/GettyImages-1234493050-1-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">General view of the flag of Kenya at Shiokaze Park on the fourteenth day of the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games in Japan. Picture date: Friday August 6, 2021. (Photo by Mike Egerton/PA Images via Getty Images)</figcaption></figure>



NAIROBI, Dec 20 (Reuters) &#8211; Kenya&#8217;s economy is likely to expand by 4.5%-5.2% in 2024 from an estimated 5% this year, the World Bank said on Wednesday.



The East African nation has been growing at one of the fastest annual paces on the continent in recent years but a heavy debt load and a weakening currency have emerged as risks.



&#8220;Debt related vulnerabilities persist, and rising debt costs constrain government&#8217;s ability to address development challenges,&#8221; the bank said in a statement on its latest Kenya economic update report.



Policymakers will need to balance between the short-term macroeconomic challenges and longer-term growth considerations, said Naomi Mathenge, a senior economist at the World Bank. (Reporting by Duncan Miriri; Editing by Jacqueline Wong)

Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games – Day Fourteen

Kenya’s economy to grow 4.5%-5.2% next year, World Bank says

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/GettyImages-1815432571-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-431887" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/GettyImages-1815432571-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/GettyImages-1815432571-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/GettyImages-1815432571-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/GettyImages-1815432571-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/GettyImages-1815432571.jpg 1024w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Attendees arrive at the Blue Zone on day three of the COP28 climate conference at Expo City in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, on Saturday, Dec. 2, 2023. More than 70,000 politicians, diplomats, campaigners, financiers and business leaders will fly to Dubai to talk about arresting the world&#8217;s slide toward environmental catastrophe. Photographer: Annie Sakkab/Bloomberg via Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



LONDON, Dec 19 (Reuters) &#8211; After winning a fraught bid to host next year&#8217;s United Nations climate talks in Baku, a senior Azerbaijani official promoted the country&#8217;s gas reserves in aiding the global the energy transition.



&#8220;Azerbaijan is also a gas exporting country, and gas &#8211; if you compare it with some other sources of energy &#8211; is a much cleaner sort of energy,&#8221; said Hikmet Hajiyev, foreign policy adviser to President Ilham Aliyev, in a meeting with reporters on Tuesday. &#8220;Azerbaijan has quite serious potential of gas,&#8221; he said.



The country has an estimated 2.5 trillion cubic metres of natural gas reserves, according to the 2021 BP Statistical Review of World Energy.



While the global warming emissions from burning natural gas are lower than those from coal or oil, they remain much higher than green energy sources.



Climate scientists have said that rising production of natural gas is emerging as one of the biggest drivers of climate change, and could cripple efforts to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels.



The decision this month at COP28 talks in the UAE to host COP29 in Baku resolved months of geopolitical deadlock over the location of the 2024 U.N. climate summit.



Azerbaijan&#8217;s bid received approval from nearly 200 countries, including longtime adversary Armenia, which have recently agreed to basic peace treaty principles after decades of conflict.



&#8220;I am glad that we found a way out of the situation,&#8221; said Hajiyev. &#8220;Now, we can build a coalition between climate action and the peace agenda&#8221;.



But climate campaigners have raised concerns about again holding the U.N. climate talks in another oil producing nation.



Asked to respond to such criticisms, Hajiyev said oil-exporting nations should lead by example and that hosting the summit was complementary, not a paradox.



He added the country, which is a member of OPEC+, supported a &#8220;transitional approach&#8221; to moving away from fossil fuels, rather than an immediate phase out.



&#8220;When will we stop (drilling)? I don&#8217;t have a clear answer for that,&#8221; said Hajiyev, noting the country had to meet standing contracts with business partners. BP is Azerbaijan&#8217;s largest foreign investor.



Hajiyev said there was still a need for fossil fuels beyond energy demand, including their use in plastics &#8211; which are also the subject of an international treaty under negotiation that could curtail their use.



&#8220;We should be very realistic and have a broader vision with regards to fossil fuels,&#8221; he said.



Hajiyev also highlighted the country&#8217;s new investments in green energy, including wind and solar, and efforts to construct an electric cable under the Black Sea to transfer green Azeri energy from planned Caspian Sea windfarms to Europe. (Reporting by Gloria Dickie; editing by David Evans)

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Ghana’s third-quarter economic growth slows to 2.0%

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featured

Emerging markets brace for wave of elections with fiscal discipline at stake

Copper could skyrocket over 75% to record highs by 2025 — brace for deficits, analysts say

Nigeria’s FX reserves dip to six-year low as naira falls

FACTBOX-The latest results in Congo’s disputed election

UAE concludes trade talks with Republic of Congo

FACTBOX-Angola to quit OPEC, reducing membership to 12 countries

Stocks set for weekly declines as rate-cut rally dissipates; FX inch up

Angola says it is leaving OPEC

World Bank approves new Tanzania loans worth $1.14 bln

Congo votes in extended, chaotic election as opposition seeks rerun

IMF releases $187 mln Zambia payout, says restructuring proposal being revised

The Rise And Influence Of African Music On The Global Stage

Global banks see no recession, US companies are more circumspect

Ghana’s third-quarter economic growth slows to 2.0%

Congo holds presidential election, opposition alleging fraud

Kenya’s economy to grow 4.5%-5.2% next year, World Bank says

COP29 climate summit host Azerbaijan touts country’s gas potential

News Tips

Advertise With Us

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