
<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="2048" height="1366" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/GettyImages-1604532787-scaled.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-506008" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/GettyImages-1604532787-scaled.jpg 2048w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/GettyImages-1604532787-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/GettyImages-1604532787-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/GettyImages-1604532787-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/GettyImages-1604532787-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/GettyImages-1604532787-1536x1025.jpg 1536w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 2048px) 100vw, 2048px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Ugandan shilling and US dollars in the draw at a foreign exchange currency bureau in Kampala, Uganda, on Wednesday, Aug. 16, 2023. Uganda&#8217;s central bank said it stands ready to act if the World Bank&#8217;s decision to halt new funding over the country&#8217;s passage of anti-LGBTQ legislation impacts the currency further. Photographer: Luke Dray/Bloomberg via Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



<p>KAMPALA, Oct 15 (Reuters) &#8211; The Ugandan shilling was steady on Tuesday, and was forecast to ease due to demand for dollars from commercial banks, traders said.</p>



<p>At 0811 GMT, commercial banks quoted the shilling at 3,660/3,670, compared with Monday&#8217;s closing rate of 3,657/3,667.</p>



<p>(Reporting by Elias Biryabarema; Editing by George Obulutsa)</p>


Ugandan Economy Following Rate Cut

Ugandan shilling steady; to ease due to commercial bank FX demand


<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="720" height="425" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/ANCK25OQIFMHTJYACOM5XU5T24.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-498541" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/ANCK25OQIFMHTJYACOM5XU5T24.jpg 720w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/ANCK25OQIFMHTJYACOM5XU5T24-300x177.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/ANCK25OQIFMHTJYACOM5XU5T24-152x90.jpg 152w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 720px) 100vw, 720px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Kenya shilling coins and notes are pictured inside a cashier&#8217;s booth at a forex exchange bureau in Kenya&#8217;s capital Nairobi, April 20, 2016. REUTERS/Thomas Mukoya/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



<p>NAIROBI, Oct 15 (Reuters) &#8211; The Kenyan shilling was unchanged against the dollar on Tuesday, data from the London Stock Exchange Group showed.</p>



<p>The East African currency traded at 128.50/129.50 to the dollar at 0654 GMT, the same as Monday&#8217;s closing rate.</p>



<p>(Reporting by Sonia Rao; Editing by George Obulutsa)</p>


ANCK25OQIFMHTJYACOM5XU5T24

Kenyan shilling unchanged against dollar, LSEG data shows


<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/shutterstock_392452534_ZAR-spread_cu-1024x683-1-820x547.jpg" alt="ArcelorMittal South Africa fined R3.64 million over hydrogen sulfide emissions" class="wp-image-365501" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/shutterstock_392452534_ZAR-spread_cu-1024x683-1-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/shutterstock_392452534_ZAR-spread_cu-1024x683-1-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/shutterstock_392452534_ZAR-spread_cu-1024x683-1-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/shutterstock_392452534_ZAR-spread_cu-1024x683-1-696x464.jpg 696w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/shutterstock_392452534_ZAR-spread_cu-1024x683-1.jpg 1024w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">ArcelorMittal South Africa fined R3.64 million over hydrogen sulfide emissions</figcaption></figure>



<p>JOHANNESBURG, Oct 15 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;South Africa&#8217;s rand softened early on Tuesday ahead of the release of the South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry&#8217;s (SACCI) September Business Confidence Index and the South African Reserve Bank&#8217;s (SARB) bi-annual Monetary Policy Review.</p>



<p>At 0644 GMT, the rand traded at 17.6350 against the dollar, about 0.2% weaker than its previous close.</p>



<p>The dollar last traded about 0.08% firmer against a basket of global currencies.</p>



<p>&#8220;With only the SACCI Business confidence data scheduled for release today, the bulk of the domestic focus will likely turn to the release of the SARB&#8217;s bi-annual monetary policy review,&#8221; ETM Analytics said in a research note.</p>



<p>&#8220;While the SACCI index aggregates data that has been released and is historical, the bi-annual review might reveal some insight that would help investors position themselves for future monetary policy,&#8221; the note added.</p>



<p>Investors will also be watching developments in the Federal Reserve&#8217;s rate cutting path and Chinese asset volatility, both of which could influence the rand&#8217;s direction.</p>



<p>South Africa&#8217;s benchmark 2030 government bond was little changed in early deals.</p>



<p>(Reporting by Tannur Anders)</p>


ArcelorMittal South Africa fined R3.64 million over hydrogen sulfide emissions

South African rand softer ahead of business confidence index, monetary policy review


<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="612" height="408" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/istockphoto-1076949610-612x612-1-1.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-524600" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/istockphoto-1076949610-612x612-1-1.jpg 612w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/istockphoto-1076949610-612x612-1-1-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/istockphoto-1076949610-612x612-1-1-135x90.jpg 135w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 612px) 100vw, 612px" /></figure>



<p>JOHANNESBURG, Oct 15 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;The following scheduled economic events, equity and currency market moves may affect South African markets on Tuesday.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-economic-events">ECONOMIC EVENTS</h2>



<p>Weekly auction of long-term government bonds</p>



<p>Business Confidence Index for September</p>



<p>South African Reserve Bank&#8217;s October Monetary Policy review</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-south-african-markets">SOUTH AFRICAN MARKETS</h2>



<p>The South African rand fell on Monday, and with little major domestic data this week the local currency will likely be driven by global events, analysts said.</p>



<p>On the Johannesburg Stock Exchange, the blue-chip Top-40 index closed about 0.3% higher.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-global-markets">GLOBAL MARKETS</h2>



<p>Asian stocks were mostly higher on Tuesday, supported by a strong Wall Street close and investor optimism about corporate earnings, while the dollar held near a two-month top, aided by bets on a smaller U.S. rate cut next month.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-wall-street">WALL STREET</h2>



<p>Wall Street ended higher on Monday, with both the S&amp;P 500 and the Dow posting fresh record finishes, as investors bought into technology stocks ahead of a busy week packed with corporate earnings and crucial economic data.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-gold">GOLD</h2>



<p>Gold was flat on Tuesday as investors await fresh insights on the Federal Reserve&#8217;s stance on U.S. interest rate reductions for further direction on bullion prices.</p>



<p>&#8211; &#8211; &#8211; &#8211;</p>



<p>Some of the main stories out in the South African press:</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-business-day">BUSINESS DAY</h2>



<p>&#8211; Ramaphosa says ideological differences will not derail GNU</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-fin-24">FIN 24</h2>



<p>&#8211; Eskom municipal debt deal flops as municipalities renege on commitments</p>



<p>(Compiled by Tannur Anders)</p>


istockphoto-1076949610-612×612-1

South African Markets – Factors to watch on Oct 15


<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="612" height="357" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/istockphoto-1030878162-612x612-1.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-400669" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/istockphoto-1030878162-612x612-1.jpg 612w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/istockphoto-1030878162-612x612-1-300x175.jpg 300w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 612px) 100vw, 612px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">World map with charts and graphs as symbols of global finance</figcaption></figure>



<p>NAIROBI, Oct 15 (Reuters) &#8211; The following company announcements, scheduled economic indicators, debt and currency market moves and political events may affect African markets on Tuesday.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-events">EVENTS:</h2>



<p>*Nigeria&#8217;s statistics office is due to release consumer inflation data for September.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-global-markets">GLOBAL MARKETS</h2>



<p>Asian stocks were mostly higher on Tuesday, supported by a strong Wall Street close and investor optimism about corporate earnings, while the dollar held near a two-month top, aided by bets on a smaller U.S. rate cut next month.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-world-oil-prices">WORLD OIL PRICES</h2>



<p>Oil prices slid 3% in early Asian trade on Tuesday after a media report said Israel is willing not to strike Iranian oil targets, which eased fears of a supply disruption, and after OPEC lowered its outlook for global oil demand growth in 2024 and 2025.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-south-africa-markets">SOUTH AFRICA MARKETS</h2>



<p>The South African rand fell on Monday, and with little major domestic data this week the local currency will likely be driven by global events, analysts said.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-nigeria-petroleum">NIGERIA PETROLEUM</h2>



<p>Nigerian independent producer Belemaoil Producing has resumed operations at its oil block Oil Mining Lease 55 after a three-year shutdown as a result of damage to the facility caused by theft, it said on Monday.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-world-bank-africa-economy">WORLD BANK AFRICA ECONOMY</h2>



<p>The World Bank said on Monday it had lowered its economic growth forecast for sub-Saharan Africa this year to 3% from 3.4%, mainly due to the destruction of Sudan&#8217;s economy in a civil war.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-kenya-markets">KENYA MARKETS</h2>



<p>The Kenyan shilling was stable against the dollar on Monday, data from the London Stock Exchange Group showed.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-kenya-banking">KENYA BANKING</h2>



<p>Kenya&#8217;s central bank said on Monday that it had authorised JPMorgan Chase to establish a representative office in the East African country.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-uganda-railway">UGANDA RAILWAY</h2>



<p>Uganda&#8217;s government and Turkish construction firm Yapi Merkezi signed a contract to build a 272 kilometre (169 miles) section of railway, in a bid to boost regional trade, a Ugandan official said on Monday.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-ivory-coast-cocoa">IVORY COAST COCOA</h2>



<p>Cocoa arrivals at ports in top grower Ivory Coast reached 100,000 metric tons by Oct. 13 since the start of the season on Oct. 1, down 12.3% compared with the same period last season, exporters estimated on Monday.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-democratic-republic-of-congo-mining">DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO MINING</h2>



<p>Democratic Republic of Congo&#8217;s state miner Gecamines said on Monday it will ship for the first time germanium concentrates to Europe from its Big Hill tailings dump.</p>



<p>((Compiled by Nairobi Newsroom))</p>


World map with charts and graphs as symbols of global finance

African Markets – Factors to watch on Oct 15


<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/6A7M3AO7TJLVNGKEVN2F6TDGYE-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-493882" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/6A7M3AO7TJLVNGKEVN2F6TDGYE-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/6A7M3AO7TJLVNGKEVN2F6TDGYE-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/6A7M3AO7TJLVNGKEVN2F6TDGYE-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/6A7M3AO7TJLVNGKEVN2F6TDGYE-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/6A7M3AO7TJLVNGKEVN2F6TDGYE-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/6A7M3AO7TJLVNGKEVN2F6TDGYE-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">International Monetary Fund (IMF) logo is seen outside the headquarters building in Washington, U.S., as IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde meets with Argentine Treasury Minister Nicolas Dujovne September 4, 2018. REUTERS/Yuri Gripas</figcaption></figure>



<p>WASHINGTON, Oct 15 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;The world&#8217;s total public debt is set to exceed $100 trillion this year for the first time, and may grow more quickly than forecast as political sentiment favors higher spending and slow growth amplifies borrowing needs and costs, the International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday.</p>



<p>The IMF&#8217;s latest Fiscal Monitor report showed global public debt will reach 93% of global gross domestic product by the end of 2024 and approach 100% by 2030. That would exceed its 99% peak during COVID-19. It would also be up 10 percentage points from 2019, before the pandemic exploded government spending.</p>



<p>Released a week before the IMF and World Bank hold annual meetings in Washington, the Fiscal Monitor said there are good reasons to believe future debt levels could be well higher than currently projected, including a desire to spend more in the U.S., the world&#8217;s largest economy.</p>



<p>&#8220;Fiscal policy uncertainty has increased, and political red lines on taxation have become more entrenched,&#8221; the IMF said in the report. &#8220;Spending pressures to address green transitions, population aging, security concerns, and long-standing development challenges are mounting.&#8221;</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-campaign-spending-promises">CAMPAIGN SPENDING PROMISES</h2>



<p>The IMF&#8217;s concerns about rising debt levels comes three weeks before a U.S. presidential election in which both candidates have promised new tax breaks and spending that could add trillions of dollars to federal deficits.</p>



<p>Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump&#8217;s tax cut plans would add some $7.5 trillion in new debt over 10 years, more than twice the $3.5 trillion added from the plans of Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, according to the central estimates the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), a budget think-tank.</p>



<p>The report finds that debt projections tend to underestimate actual outcomes by sizeable margins, with realized debt to GDP ratios five years ahead averaging 10% higher than originally forecast.</p>



<p>And debt could be further increased significantly by weak growth, tighter financing conditions and greater fiscal and monetary policy uncertainty in systemically important economies such as the U.S. and China. The report includes a &#8220;severely adverse scenario&#8221; involving these factors that shows global public debt could reach 115% in just three years, 20 percentage points higher than currently projected.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-spending-brakes">SPENDING BRAKES</h2>



<p>The IMF repeated its calls for more fiscal consolidation, saying the current environment with solid growth and low unemployment was an opportune time to do so. But it said current efforts, averaging 1% of GDP over the six years from 2023 to 2029, are insufficient to reduce or stabilize debts with a high probability.</p>



<p>A cumulative tightening of 3.8% would be needed to achieve this goal, but in the U.S., China, and other countries where of GDP is not forecast to stabilize, substantially greater fiscal tightening would be needed.</p>



<p>The U.S. this month is expected report a fiscal 2024 deficit of about $1.8 trillion, or more than 6.5% of GDP, according to the Congressional Budget Office.</p>



<p>It said the U.S. and other countries where debt is projected to keep growing, including Brazil, Britain, France, Italy and South Africa, could face costly consequences.</p>



<p>&#8220;Postponing adjustment will only mean that a larger correction is needed eventually, and waiting can also be risky, because past experience shows that high debt and lack of credible fiscal plans can trigger adverse market reactions and can limit the room that countries have to deal with future shocks,&#8221; said Era Dabla-Norris, the IMF&#8217;s deputy fiscal affairs director.</p>



<p>She said cuts in public investment or social spending, tend to have a much larger negative impact on growth, than more poorly targeted subsidies such as for fuel. Some countries have room to broaden their tax bases and improve the efficiency of tax collections, while others can make their tax systems more progressive by taxing capital gains and income more effectively, Dabla-Norris said.</p>



<p>(Reporting by David Lawder; Editing by David Gregorio)</p>


IMF logo is seen outside the headquarters building in Washington

IMF says global public debt to top $100 trillion, growth may accelerate


<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/NBCYKZR44FM2XJAGL3GJEWP3KA-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-542097" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/NBCYKZR44FM2XJAGL3GJEWP3KA-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/NBCYKZR44FM2XJAGL3GJEWP3KA-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/NBCYKZR44FM2XJAGL3GJEWP3KA-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/NBCYKZR44FM2XJAGL3GJEWP3KA-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/NBCYKZR44FM2XJAGL3GJEWP3KA-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/NBCYKZR44FM2XJAGL3GJEWP3KA-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">A person enters the JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. New York headquarters in Manhattan, New York City, U.S., June 30, 2022. REUTERS/Andrew Kelly/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



<p>NAIROBI, Oct 14 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Kenya&#8217;s central bank&nbsp;said on Monday that it had authorised JPMorgan Chase&nbsp;JPM.N&nbsp;to establish a representative office in the East African country.</p>



<p>Representative offices of foreign banks in Kenya serve as marketing and liaison hubs for their parent banks and affiliates, the Central Bank of Kenya said in a statement.</p>



<p>The JPMorgan Chase representative office will contribute to the diversity of Kenya&#8217;s financial sector and catalyse trade and investments, the statement added.</p>



<p>Reuters reported last month, citing four sources familiar with the matter, that JPMorgan Chase&#8217;s CEO Jamie Dimon planned to travel to Africa in mid-October in a push by the biggest U.S. lender to expand on the continent.</p>



<p>(Reporting by Hereward Holland; Additional reporting by Bhargav Acharya; Editing by Alexander Winning)</p>


A person enters the JPMorgan Chase & Co. New York headquarters in Manhattan, New York City

Kenya allows JPMorgan Chase to set up representative office locally

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<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/UGANDA-SHILLING.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-524644" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/UGANDA-SHILLING.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/UGANDA-SHILLING-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/UGANDA-SHILLING-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/UGANDA-SHILLING-768x512.jpg 768w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Uganda shillings. Uganda. (Photo by: Godong/Universal Images Group via Getty Images)</figcaption></figure>



<p>KAMPALA, Oct 14 (Reuters) &#8211; The Ugandan shilling traded flat on Monday, with hard currency appetite muted across merchandise importers and on the interbank market, traders said.</p>



<p>At 1030 GMT commercial banks quoted the shilling at 3,660/3,670, same level as Friday&#8217;s close.</p>



<p>(Reporting by Elias Biryabarema; Editing by Hereward Holland)</p>


UGANDA SHILLING

Ugandan shilling unchanged on muted FX appetite


<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/CKKI5RXPNVLOZBPSD2MVSPIHEY-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-542050" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/CKKI5RXPNVLOZBPSD2MVSPIHEY-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/CKKI5RXPNVLOZBPSD2MVSPIHEY-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/CKKI5RXPNVLOZBPSD2MVSPIHEY-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/CKKI5RXPNVLOZBPSD2MVSPIHEY-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/CKKI5RXPNVLOZBPSD2MVSPIHEY-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/CKKI5RXPNVLOZBPSD2MVSPIHEY-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">A view of a street in the city of Omdurman damaged in the civil war in Sudan, April 7, 2024. REUTERS/El Tayeb Siddig/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



<p>NAIROBI, Oct 14 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;The World Bank said on Monday it had lowered its economic growth forecast for sub-Saharan Africa this year to 3% from 3.4%, mainly due to the destruction of Sudan&#8217;s economy in a civil war.</p>



<p>However, growth is expected to remain comfortably above last year&#8217;s 2.4% thanks to higher private consumption and investment, the bank said in its latest regional economic outlook report, Africa&#8217;s Pulse.</p>



<p>&#8220;This is still a recovery that is basically in slow gear,&#8221; Andrew Dabalen, chief economist for the Africa region at the World Bank, told a media briefing.</p>



<p>The report forecast next year&#8217;s growth at 3.9%, above its previous prediction of 3.8%.</p>



<p>Moderating inflation in many countries will allow policymakers to start lowering elevated lending rates, the report said.</p>



<p>However, the growth forecasts still face serious risks from armed conflict and climate events such as droughts, floods and cyclones, it added.</p>



<p>Without the conflict in Sudan, which devastated economic activity and caused starvation and widespread displacement, regional growth in 2024 would have been half a percentage higher and in line with its initial April estimate, the lender said.</p>



<p>Growth in the region&#8217;s most advanced economy, South Africa, is expected to increase to 1.1% this year and 1.6% in 2025, the report said, from 0.7% last year.</p>



<p>Nigeria is expected to grow at 3.3% this year, rising to 3.6% in 2025, while Kenya, the richest economy in East Africa, is likely to expand by 5% this year, the report said.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-commodities">COMMODITIES</h2>



<p>The sub-Saharan Africa region grew at a robust annual average of 5.3% in 2000-2014 on the back of a commodity supercycle, but output started flagging when commodity prices crashed. The slowdown was accelerated by the COVID pandemic.</p>



<p>&#8220;Cumulatively, if that were to continue for a long time, it would be catastrophic,&#8221; Dabalen warned.</p>



<p>Many economies in the region were starved of public and private investments, he said, and a recovery in foreign direct investments that started in 2021 was still tepid.</p>



<p>&#8220;The region needs much, much larger levels of investments in order to be able to recover faster&#8230; and be able to reduce poverty,&#8221; he said.</p>



<p>Growth across the region is also hamstrung by high debt service costs in countries like Kenya, which was rocked by deadly protests against tax hikes in June and July.</p>



<p>&#8220;There are staggering levels of interest payments,&#8221; Dabalen said, attributing this to a shift by governments to borrow from financial markets in the last decade and away from the low-priced credit offered by institutions like the World Bank.</p>



<p>Total external debt among economies has risen to about $500 billion from $150 billion a decade and a half ago, he said, with the bulk owed to bond market investors and China.</p>



<p>Chad, Zambia, Ghana and Ethiopia went into default in the last four years and have overhauled their debt under a G20 initiative Common Framework. Ethiopia is still working to restructure its debt while the others have completed their debt restructuring.</p>



<p>&#8220;As long as these debt issues are not resolved, there is going to be a lot of &#8216;wait and see&#8217; games going on, and that is not good for the countries, and certainly not good for the creditors as well,&#8221; he said.</p>



<p>(Reporting by Duncan Miriri; Editing by Gareth Jones)</p>


A street in the city of Omdurman damaged in the civil war in Sudan

World Bank cuts 2024 growth forecast for sub-Saharan Africa over Sudan


<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="461" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108046955-1728864181139-gettyimages-2177123447-2177123447-820x461.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-542016" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108046955-1728864181139-gettyimages-2177123447-2177123447-820x461.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108046955-1728864181139-gettyimages-2177123447-2177123447-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108046955-1728864181139-gettyimages-2177123447-2177123447-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108046955-1728864181139-gettyimages-2177123447-2177123447-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108046955-1728864181139-gettyimages-2177123447-2177123447-1536x864.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108046955-1728864181139-gettyimages-2177123447-2177123447.jpeg 1858w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">A shipping container and gantry cranes at the Yangshan Deepwater Port in Shanghai, China, on Thursday, Oct. 10, 2024.<br>Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



<p>BEIJING — China’s exports grew by 2.4% in September from a year ago in U.S. dollar terms, while imports rose by 0.3%, customs data showed Monday.</p>



<p>Both figures were well below expectations. China’s exports were forecast to have risen by 6% year-on-year in September in U.S. dollar terms, according to a Reuters poll. That would be slower than the 8.7% increase in August.</p>



<p>Imports were expected to have climbed by 0.9% in September from a year ago, according to the Reuters poll. That would be slightly faster than the 0.5% increase in August.</p>



<p>Exports have been a bright spot in China’s economy, which has otherwise been weighed down by lackluster consumer spending and a real estate slump.</p>



<p>Inflation data out Sunday pointed to further weakness in domestic demand.</p>



<p>The core consumer price index, which strips out more volatile food and energy prices, rose by 0.1% in September from a year ago. That’s the slowest since February 2021, according to the Wind Information database. Tourism-related prices fell by 2.1% year-on-year, despite the Mid-Autumn Festival in September and Golden Week holiday that kicked off Oct. 1.</p>



<p>China’s National Bureau of Statistics is scheduled to release third-quarter GDP on Friday, along with retail sales, industrial production and fixed asset investment for September.</p>



<p>Chinese authorities have ramped up stimulus announcements since late last month, while so far falling short on the fiscal policy details many investors have hoped for. Stocks in China have swung wildly as beaten-down markets debate the ultimate impact of Beijing’s economic support.</p>



<p><em><strong>This is a breaking news story. Please check back for updates.</strong></em></p>


108046955-1728864181139-gettyimages-2177123447-2177123447

China’s exports and imports grew far less than expected in September


<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="461" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/1x-1-2-820x461.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-400641" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/1x-1-2-820x461.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/1x-1-2-300x169.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/1x-1-2-768x432.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/1x-1-2-1536x864.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/1x-1-2-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">A collection of mixed denomination South African rand coins sit in an arranged photo in Johannesburg, South Africa, on Thursday, June 22, 2017. South Africas inflation rate rose for the first time this year in May after food-price growth quickened from the slowest pace since December 2015. Photographer: Waldo Swiegers/Bloomberg via Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



<p>JOHANNESBURG, Oct 14 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;The South African rand softened in early trade on Monday, and with few major domestic data points this week, the local currency will likely be driven by global events, analysts said.</p>



<p>At 0713 GMT, the rand traded at 17.4375 against the dollar, about 0.3% weaker than its previous close.</p>



<p>The dollar eased about 0.02% against a basket of other major currencies.</p>



<p>&#8220;After what was shaping up to be a torrid week for the ZAR, last week closed out fairly close to where it started, which was not something many anticipated, given that the appreciation of the trade-weighted USD did not give up any ground,&#8221; said ETM Analytics in a research note.</p>



<p>This week, local investors could look to South Africa&#8217;s business confidence index on Tuesday and August retail sales figures on Wednesday for signs on the health of Africa&#8217;s most industrialised economy.</p>



<p>&#8220;In the interim, SA will be subject to more offshore developments to drive broader currency direction this week&#8230; None of the local data is likely to be particularly market-moving,&#8221; ETM Analytics&#8217;s note added.</p>



<p>Like other risk-sensitive currencies, the rand tends to take cues from global drivers in the absence of major local factors.</p>



<p>The European Central Bank will make its latest interest rate decision this week and markets will also be watching developments in Federal Reserve&#8217;s rate cutting path and Chinese asset volatility.</p>



<p>On the Johannesburg Stock Exchange, the blue-chip Top-40 index was little changed in early trade.</p>



<p>South Africa&#8217;s benchmark 2030 government bond was slightly stronger in early deals, with the yield down 1 basis point to 9.145%.</p>



<p>(Reporting by Tannur Anders; Editing by Kirsten Donovan)</p>


South African Economy As Inflation Rate Rises For First Time In 2017

South African rand weakens, local data to have little influence


<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="521" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/RLVCCF47LVIWPJR4O2PPITYMVI-820x521.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-516586" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/RLVCCF47LVIWPJR4O2PPITYMVI-820x521.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/RLVCCF47LVIWPJR4O2PPITYMVI-300x191.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/RLVCCF47LVIWPJR4O2PPITYMVI-142x90.jpg 142w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/RLVCCF47LVIWPJR4O2PPITYMVI-768x488.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/RLVCCF47LVIWPJR4O2PPITYMVI-1536x976.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/RLVCCF47LVIWPJR4O2PPITYMVI.jpg 1920w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">A teller handles U.S. dollar banknotes and Kenya shilling banknotes inside the cashier&#8217;s booth at a forex exchange bureau in downtown Nairobi, Kenya, February 16, 2024. REUTERS/Thomas Mukoya/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



<p>NAIROBI, Oct 14 (Reuters) &#8211; The Kenyan shilling was stable against the dollar on Monday, data from the London Stock Exchange Group showed.</p>



<p>At 0657 GMT, the shilling traded at 128.50/129.50 against the dollar, the same as Friday&#8217;s closing rate.</p>



<p>The shilling has been range-bound for several months, following a rally earlier this year after the government issued a new $1.5 billion Eurobond to buy back most of a $2 billion bond whose maturity in June had unnerved investors.</p>



<p>(Reporting by Sonia Rao; Editing by George Obulutsa)</p>


RLVCCF47LVIWPJR4O2PPITYMVI

Kenyan shilling stable versus dollar, LSEG data shows


<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="612" height="408" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/istockphoto-1076949610-612x612-1-1.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-524600" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/istockphoto-1076949610-612x612-1-1.jpg 612w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/istockphoto-1076949610-612x612-1-1-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/istockphoto-1076949610-612x612-1-1-135x90.jpg 135w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 612px) 100vw, 612px" /></figure>



<p>JOHANNESBURG, Oct 14 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;The following scheduled economic events, equity and currency market moves may affect South African markets on Monday.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-economic-events">ECONOMIC EVENTS</h2>



<p>The Johannesburg Stock Exchange to release data on foreigners&#8217; buying and selling of bonds and stocks during the previous week.</p>



<p>South Africa&#8217;s government to hold weekly auction for Treasury bills.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-south-african-markets">SOUTH AFRICAN MARKETS</h2>



<p>South Africa&#8217;s rand gained against the dollar on Friday after U.S. data this week helped sustain expectations for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next month.</p>



<p>On the stock market, the blue-chip Top-40 index closed about 0.8% up.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-global-markets">GLOBAL MARKETS</h2>



<p>Asian stocks swung between gain and loss on Monday as investors struggled to reach a consensus view on China&#8217;s broad economic stimulus promises made over the weekend which were light on specifics.&nbsp;MKTS/GLOB</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-wall-street">WALL STREET</h2>



<p>The S&amp;P 500 and the Dow scored record closing highs on Friday, with the big boosts from financial stocks after banks reported strong quarterly results while the latest inflation data fueled expectations for a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut in November.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-gold">GOLD</h2>



<p>Gold prices eased on Monday, weighed down by a firmer U.S. dollar, while investors looked out for fresh clues on Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. </p>



<p>&#8211; &#8211; &#8211; &#8211;</p>



<p>Some of the main stories out in the South African press:</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-business-day">BUSINESS DAY</h2>



<p>&#8211; Sars makes link between ANC donor and Russian oligarch</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-fin-24">FIN 24</h2>



<p>&#8211; SA could be &#8216;off to the moon&#8217; with 2% GDP growth, says Investec&#8217;s dealmaking chief</p>



<p>&#8211; Transnet plans hydrogen terminals as SA gears up for exports</p>



<p>(Compiled by Tannur Anders)</p>


South African Markets – Factors to watch on Oct 14


<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="612" height="357" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/istockphoto-1030878162-612x612-1.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-400669" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/istockphoto-1030878162-612x612-1.jpg 612w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/istockphoto-1030878162-612x612-1-300x175.jpg 300w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 612px) 100vw, 612px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">World map with charts and graphs as symbols of global finance</figcaption></figure>



<p>NAIROBI, Oct 14 (Reuters) &#8211; The following company announcements, scheduled economic indicators, debt and currency market moves and political events may affect African markets on Monday.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-global-markets">GLOBAL MARKETS</h2>



<p>Asian stocks swung between gain and loss on Monday as investors struggled to reach a consensus view on China&#8217;s economic stimulus promises made over the weekend which, though broad, were light on specifics.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-world-oil-prices">WORLD OIL PRICES</h2>



<p>Oil prices fell by more than $1 a barrel, losing over 1.5% in early trading on Monday, after disappointing Chinese inflation data and a lack of clarity on Beijing&#8217;s economic stimulus plans stoked fears about demand.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-south-africa-markets">SOUTH AFRICA MARKETS</h2>



<p>South Africa&#8217;s rand gained against the dollar on Friday after U.S. data this week helped sustain expectations for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next month.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-nigeria-natural-gas">NIGERIA NATURAL GAS</h2>



<p>Nigeria took a major step in its quest to earn revenue from its vast gas reserves, signing a deal with joint venture partners to supply gas to a proposed $3.5 billion Brass fertilizer and petrochemical plant, an official said on Friday.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-nigeria-petroleum">NIGERIA PETROLEUM</h2>



<p>Nigeria&#8217;s local fuel traders can now buy petrol directly from the Dangote Oil Refinery, ending state-oil firm NNPC&#8217;s exclusive buying rights as the country moves to fully deregulate its processing sector, the finance minister said on Friday.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-nigeria-binance">NIGERIA BINANCE</h2>



<p>Binance&#8217;s head of financial crime compliance was denied bail for a second time on Friday as his trial on money laundering charges started in Nigeria, with a judge ruling that the prison in which he is being held is capable of meeting his medical needs.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-kenya-markets">KENYA MARKETS</h2>



<p>Kenya&#8217;s shilling was steady against the dollar on Friday, and is expected to remain so for the next week, one commercial bank trader said.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-kenya-politics">KENYA POLITICS</h2>



<p>Kenya&#8217;s high court ruled on Friday that a case challenging Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua&#8217;s impeachment should be referred to the Chief Justice.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-ghana-ratings">GHANA RATINGS</h2>



<p>Global credit ratings agency Moody&#8217;s on Friday upgraded Ghana&#8217;s long-term local and foreign currency issuer ratings to &#8220;Caa2&#8221; from &#8220;Caa3&#8221; and &#8220;Ca,&#8221; respectively, citing extensive debt treatment that has significantly alleviated the government&#8217;s financial burdens.</p>



<p>((Compiled by Nairobi Newsroom))</p>


African Markets – Factors to watch on Oct 14


<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/GW7GRJQCGFP73CX62DFQGIUO4E-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-541965" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/GW7GRJQCGFP73CX62DFQGIUO4E-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/GW7GRJQCGFP73CX62DFQGIUO4E-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/GW7GRJQCGFP73CX62DFQGIUO4E-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/GW7GRJQCGFP73CX62DFQGIUO4E-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/GW7GRJQCGFP73CX62DFQGIUO4E-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/GW7GRJQCGFP73CX62DFQGIUO4E-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: An atrium is seen at the World Bank headquarters building in Washington, U.S., October 14, 2017. REUTERS/Yuri Gripas/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



<p>WASHINGTON, Oct 13 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;The world&#8217;s 26 poorest countries, home to 40% of the most poverty-stricken people, are more in debt than at any time since 2006 and increasingly vulnerable to natural disasters and other shocks, a new World Bank report showed on Sunday.</p>



<p>The report finds that these economies are poorer today on average than they were on the eve of the COVID-19 pandemic, even as the rest of the world has largely recovered from COVID and resumed its growth trajectory.</p>



<p>Released a week before World Bank and International Monetary Fund annual meetings get underway in Washington, the report confirms a major setback to efforts to eradicate extreme poverty and underscores the World Bank&#8217;s efforts this year to raise $100 billion to replenish its financing fund for the world&#8217;s poorest countries, the International Development Association (IDA).</p>



<p>The 26 poorest economies studied, which have annual per-capita incomes of less than $1,145, are increasingly reliant on IDA grants and near-zero interest rate loans as market financing has largely dried up, the World Bank said. Their average debt-to-GDP ratio of 72% is at an 18-year high and half of the group are either in debt distress or at high risk of it.</p>



<p>Most of the countries in the study are in sub-Saharan Africa, from Ethiopia to Chad and Congo, but the list also includes Afghanistan and Yemen.</p>



<p>Two thirds of the 26 poorest countries are either in armed conflicts or have difficulty maintaining order because of institutional and social fragility, which inhibit foreign investment, and nearly all export commodities, exposing them to frequent boom-and-bust cycles, the report said.</p>



<p>&#8220;At a time when much of the world simply backed away from the poorest countries, IDA has been their lifeline,&#8221; World Bank chief economist Indermit Gill said in a statement. &#8220;Over the past five years, it has poured most of its financial resources into the 26 low-income economies, keeping them afloat through the historic setbacks they suffered.&#8221;</p>



<p>IDA normally is replenished every three years with contributions from World Bank shareholding countries. It raised a record $93 billion in 2021 and World Bank President Ajay Banga is aiming to exceed that with more than $100 billion in pledges by Dec. 6.</p>



<p>Natural disasters have also taken a greater toll on these countries over the past decade. Between 2011 and 2023, natural disasters were associated with average annual losses of 2% of GDP, five times the average among lower-middle-income countries, pointing to the need for much higher investment, the World Bank said.</p>



<p>The report also recommended that these economies, which have large informal sectors operating outside their tax systems, do more to help themselves. This includes improving tax collections by simplifying taxpayer registration and tax administration and improving the efficiency of public spending.</p>



<p>(Reporting by David Lawder; Editing by Andrea Ricci and Jacqueline Wong)</p>


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Ugandan shilling steady; to ease due to commercial bank FX demand

Kenyan shilling unchanged against dollar, LSEG data shows

South African rand softer ahead of business confidence index, monetary policy review

South African Markets – Factors to watch on Oct 15

African Markets – Factors to watch on Oct 15

IMF says global public debt to top $100 trillion, growth may accelerate

Kenya allows JPMorgan Chase to set up representative office locally

How A Rare Type Of Mortgage Is Landing Homebuyers A 3% Mortgage Rate

Inside Track: The Business of Formula 1

Ugandan shilling unchanged on muted FX appetite

World Bank cuts 2024 growth forecast for sub-Saharan Africa over Sudan

China’s exports and imports grew far less than expected in September

South African rand weakens, local data to have little influence

Kenyan shilling stable versus dollar, LSEG data shows

South African Markets – Factors to watch on Oct 14

African Markets – Factors to watch on Oct 14

World Bank says 26 poorest nations in worst financial shape since 2006

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home

Ugandan shilling steady; to ease due to commercial bank FX demand

Kenyan shilling unchanged against dollar, LSEG data shows

South African rand softer ahead of business confidence index, monetary policy review

South African Markets – Factors to watch on Oct 15

African Markets – Factors to watch on Oct 15

IMF says global public debt to top $100 trillion, growth may accelerate

Kenya allows JPMorgan Chase to set up representative office locally

How A Rare Type Of Mortgage Is Landing Homebuyers A 3% Mortgage Rate

Inside Track: The Business of Formula 1

Ugandan shilling unchanged on muted FX appetite

World Bank cuts 2024 growth forecast for sub-Saharan Africa over Sudan

China’s exports and imports grew far less than expected in September

South African rand weakens, local data to have little influence

Kenyan shilling stable versus dollar, LSEG data shows

South African Markets – Factors to watch on Oct 14

African Markets – Factors to watch on Oct 14

World Bank says 26 poorest nations in worst financial shape since 2006

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