<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1110" height="740" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/GettyImages-1229611954-1110x740.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-392210" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/GettyImages-1229611954-1110x740.jpg 1110w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/GettyImages-1229611954-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/GettyImages-1229611954-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/GettyImages-1229611954-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/GettyImages-1229611954-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/GettyImages-1229611954-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 1110px) 100vw, 1110px" /><figcaption>BRAZIL &#8211; 2020/11/13: In this photo illustration a medical syringe is seen with Johnson and Johnson company logo displayed on a screen in the background. (Photo Illustration by Rafael Henrique/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)</figcaption></figure>



BRUSSELS, Dec 16 (Reuters) &#8211; The global scheme to deliver COVID-19 vaccines to poorer countries faces a &#8220;very high&#8221; risk of failure, potentially leaving nations home to billions of people with no access to vaccines until as late as 2024, internal documents say.



The World Health Organization&#8217;s COVAX programme is the main global scheme to vaccinate people in poor and middle income countries around the world against the coronavirus. It aims to deliver at least 2 billion vaccine doses by the end of 2021 to cover 20% of the most vulnerable people in 91 poor and middle-income countries, mostly in Africa, Asia and Latin America.



But in internal documents reviewed by Reuters, the scheme&#8217;s promoters say the programme is struggling from a lack of funds, supply risks and complex contractual arrangements which could make it impossible to achieve its goals.



&#8220;The risk of a failure to establish a successful COVAX Facility is very high,&#8221; says an internal report to the board of Gavi, an alliance of governments, drug companies, charities and international organisations that arranges global vaccination campaigns. Gavi co-leads COVAX alongside the WHO.



The report and other documents prepared by Gavi are being discussed at Gavi&#8217;s board meetings on Dec. 15-17.



The failure of the facility could leave people in poor nations without any access to COVID-19 vaccines until 2024, one of the documents says.



The risk of failure is higher because the scheme was set up so quickly, operating in &#8220;uncharted territory&#8221;, the report says.



&#8220;Current risk exposure is deemed outside of risk appetite until there is full clarity on the size of risks and possibilities to mitigate them,&#8221; it says. &#8220;It therefore requires intensive mitigation efforts to bring the risk within risk appetite.&#8221;



Gavi hired Citigroup last month to provide advice on how to mitigate financial risks.



In one Nov. 25 memo included in the documents submitted to the Gavi board, Citi advisors said the biggest risk to the programme was from clauses in supply contracts that allow countries not to buy vaccines booked through COVAX.



A potential mismatch between vaccine supply and demand &#8220;is not a commercial risk efficiently mitigated by the market or the MDBs,&#8221; the Citi advisors wrote, referring to multilateral development banks such as the World Bank.



&#8220;Therefore it must either be mitigated through contract negotiation or through a Gavi risk absorption layer that is carefully managed by a management and governance structure.&#8221;



Asked about the documents, a Gavi spokesman said the body remains confident it can achieve its goals.



&#8220;It would be irresponsible not to assess the risks inherent to such a massive and complex undertaking, and to build policies and instruments to mitigate those risks,&#8221; he added.



The WHO did not respond to a request for comment. In the past it has let Gavi take the lead in public comments about the COVAX programme.



Citibank said in a statement: &#8220;As a financial advisor, we are responsible for helping Gavi plan for a range of scenarios related to the COVAX facility and supporting their efforts to mitigate potential risks.&#8221;



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-supply-deals">SUPPLY DEALS</h2>



COVAX&#8217;s plans rely on cheaper vaccines that have so far yet to receive approval, rather than vaccines from frontrunners Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna that use more expensive new mRNA technology. The Pfizer vaccine has already been approved for emergency use in several countries and deployed in Britain and the United States, and the Moderna vaccine is expected to be similarly approved soon.



COVAX has so far reached non-binding supply agreements with AstraZeneca, Novavax and Sanofi for a total of 400 million doses, with options to order several hundred million additional shots, one of the Gavi documents says.



But the three companies have all faced delays in their trials that could push back some possible regulatory approvals to the second half of 2021 or later.



This could also increase COVAX&#8217;s financial needs. Its financial assumptions are based on an average cost of $5.20 per dose, one of the documents says.



Pfizer&#8217;s vaccines costs about $18.40-$19.50 per dose, while Moderna&#8217;s costs $25-$37. COVAX has no supply deals with either of those firms. Nor is it prioritising investment in ultra-cold distribution chains in poor countries, necessary for the Pfizer vaccine, as it still expects to use mostly shots which require more conventional cold storage, one of the Gavi documents says.



On Tuesday a WHO senior official said the agency was in talks with Pfizer and Moderna to include their COVID-19 vaccines as part of an early global rollout at a cost for poor countries possibly lower than current market prices.



Other shots are being developed worldwide and COVAX wants to expand its portfolio to include vaccines from other companies.



Rich countries, which have booked most of the currently available stocks of COVID-19 vaccines, are also planning to donate some excess doses to poor countries, although is not clear whether that would be through COVAX.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-financial-pressure">FINANCIAL PRESSURE</h2>



To meet its target of vaccinating at least 20% of people in poor countries next year, COVAX says it needs $4.9 billion in addition to $2.1 billion it has already raised.



If vaccine prices are higher than forecast, supply is delayed or the additional funds are not fully collected, the facility faces the prospect of failure, the documents say.



So far Britain and European Union countries are the main donors to COVAX, while the United States and China have made no financial commitments. The World Bank and other multilateral financial institutions are offering cheap loans to poor countries to help them buy and deploy vaccines through COVAX.



The facility is issuing vaccine bonds which could raise as much as $1.5 billion next year if donors agreed to cover the costs, one of the Gavi documents says. COVAX is also receiving funds from private donors, mainly the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.



But even under the best financial conditions, COVAX could still face failure, because of disproportionate financial risks caused by its complex deal-making process.



COVAX signs advance purchase contracts with companies on vaccine supplies that need to be paid for by donors or receiving countries that have the means to afford them.



But under clauses included in COVAX contracts, countries could still refuse to buy pre-ordered volumes if they prefer other vaccines, or if they manage to acquire them through other schemes, either faster or at better prices.



The facility could also face losses if countries were not able to pay for their orders, or even if herd immunity were developed too quickly, making vaccines no longer necessary, the Citigroup report said. It proposed a strategy to mitigate these risks including through changes in supply contracts. (Reporting by Francesco Guarascio @fraguarascio Editing by Peter Graff)



(c) Copyright Thomson Reuters 2020. Click For Restrictions &#8211; https://agency.reuters.com/en/copyright.html

In this photo illustration, a man holds a syringe with a

EXCLUSIVE-WHO vaccine scheme risks failure, leaving poor countries no COVID shots until 2024

Isana Cordier, Sector Head: Consumer Goods and Services



Highly regarded marketing and investment commentator Professor Scott Galloway of Stern University recently shared a fascinating statistic: More US households own an Amazon Prime Membership than decorate a Christmas Tree, own a pet or go to Church in 2020.



This statistic speaks to the changing consumer landscape across the globe and the role that digital platforms now play in the retail space.



While South Africa does lag some of its first-world peers in terms of digital consumption, “Black Friday” – and by extension “Cyber Monday” – trading statistics presented some insights into the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and what it might mean for retailers going forward.



In the past, Black Friday has very much been viewed as an opportunity for retailers to do physical activations and sell “big-ticket” items such as electronics and home appliances through in-store activations. “Cyber Monday” was then an opportunity for the online retail operations to kick into gear.



For obvious reasons, 2020 has not been a normal year and retailers didn’t see queues outside their physical stores and many of the deep discounts that we have seen in the past have not materialised.&nbsp;



While some of this can be attributed to economic pressures, we need to remember that many retailers did not have a normal stock year – it takes up to 6 months to prepare for Black Friday, and many retailers didn’t have Easter specials or the ability to plan their stock levels due to the lockdowns that were implemented across the globe.



With the Festive season upon us, it is worth unpacking some of the data to better understand exactly how consumers reacted this year.



The first stand-out data point is that the “Real Black Friday” actually took place in March 2020 just prior to the Level 5 lockdown coming into effect. Over R1.2bn in transactions took place on the day before the lockdown came into effect and the three days prior to lockdown were 3 of the 4 highest days in terms of transaction volumes.



However, only certain categories benefitted as consumers were stocking up on alcohol, groceries and fitness equipment leading to a spike in consumer activity across the country.



With the lockdowns starting to bite, unemployment spiked in the third quarter of 2020 with the unemployment rate coming in at 30.8% &#8211; the highest unemployment rate on record since the Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS) began in 2008.



This was reflected in the data we saw as the traditional Black Friday rolled around.



According to data out of BankServAfrica, in-store card purchases on 27 November numbered just under five million, a decrease of 30% compared to 2019. Online transactions, by contrast, spiked by more than 60% to just under 870,000 sales in total. This represented an increase of 300 000 extra online sales.



There were two million fewer sales in physical stores according to the BankServ data.



Looking specifically at Absa data, we can see the following:



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Black Friday spend in 2020 decreased by 22.4%, with just over 2 million Absa Card customers swiping or clicking on the day. The total turnover for the day on Absa Card customers was approximately R2.7bn and 5.2 million transactions took place.</li><li>Total turnover for Absa acquiring data was roughly around R6.9bn over the Black Friday weekend.</li><li>The total Card Issuing spend for the Black Friday weekend was 22.4% down last year, whilst Payment Acceptance showed a 31% decrease which correlates somewhat with Bankserv statistics.</li><li>There were 86 transactions approved every second down by +- 23 transactions, valued at R47k/second also down with +- R21k/second from the previous year</li></ul>



What are some of the key insights that retailers can use in their decision-making process:



<ol class="wp-block-list" type="1"><li>There was a shift from credit to debit card in 2020: While this statistic needs to be investigated further, it may suggest that many consumers are reaching their credit limits and this may have a material impact on the December spending habits. Our data showed that credit card transactions declined for both credit card “present” and “card not present” transactions. Online spend for debit card transactions had risen 29% over the period.&nbsp; &nbsp; </li><li>Consumer confidence is coming back: Data out of the Stellenbosch-based Bureau of Economic Research (BER) reported a spike in consumer and wholesaler confidence, following a sharp increase in consumer spend in the third quarter.</li><li>…. But consumers are feeling the pinch: Considering that many retailers choose to run a longer sale program throughout the month of November, it is also noticeable that the whole month of November 2020 is comparatively down 2.7% compared to November 2019.&nbsp; This is striking against the previous month of October where traded value was up 17%. Most categories reduced in value processed, except the Building and Home Improvement categories.&nbsp; Even the biggest traders in Food and Groceries category show reduced trading through the month of November. It remains to be seen whether the termination of the UIF and TERS benefits plays a material role in consumer confidence in December.</li></ol>



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Consumers are changing what they buy: The December sales update out of Italtile showed the work-from-home trend was driving a clear shift toward greater investment in the home, aided by restrictions on travel and other recreational activities.</li></ul>



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Consumers are changing how they pay: Despite some challenges with online channels it’s clear to see that customers are embracing new payment channels like Tap and Go and online more than doubling from 8% in 2019 to 22% in 2020.New payment types like Samsung Pay / Garmin Pay / Apple Pay / Fitbit Pay and others can also be seen to be used to pay for goods such from groceries, fuel to something to eat on the go. </li></ul>



Financial results coming out of the retail groups suggest that those who made the shift toward digital channels have reaped benefits.



Reporting interim results in November, The Foschini Group (TFG) saw online sales now make up 14.4% of total turnover. Online turnover in TFG Africa and TFG Australia saw strong growth of 115,8% (In Rand terms) in TFG Africa and 66,8% (In Australian Dollars) in TFG Australia for the six months ended 30 September 2020.



Woolworths similarly reported a pleasing shift toward digital channels when reporting its sales for the 20 weeks ended 15 November 2020. The group provides an interesting marker for the health of the consumer due to its diversified geographic footprint and product ranges.



While talk of COVID-19 vaccines arriving in early 2021 have boosted market confidence, digital channels are expected to play bigger roles in the consumer and retail space – it just remains to be seen whether the economy has enough momentum to sustain this consumer rebound.

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Black Friday taking consumers from bricks to bytes

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<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1110" height="816" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/GettyImages-1230142488-1110x816.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-393843" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/GettyImages-1230142488-1110x816.jpg 1110w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/GettyImages-1230142488-300x220.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/GettyImages-1230142488-820x603.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/GettyImages-1230142488-768x564.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/GettyImages-1230142488-1536x1129.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/GettyImages-1230142488-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 1110px) 100vw, 1110px" /><figcaption>Nigerian soldiers walk inside the Government Science where gunmen abducted students in Kankara, in northwestern Katsina state, Nigeria December 15, 2020. &#8211; Boko Haram on Tuesday claimed the abduction of hundreds of students, marking its first attack in northwestern Nigeria since the jihadist uprising began more than ten years ago. (Photo by Kola Sulaimon / AFP) (Photo by KOLA SULAIMON/AFP via Getty Images)</figcaption></figure>


 
MAIDUGURI, Nigeria, Dec 15 (Reuters) &#8211; A man identifying himself as the leader of Nigeria&#8217;s Boko Haram said on Tuesday the Islamist group was behind the abduction of more than 300 schoolboys, as anxious parents begged the government to secure their release.
Pupils who escaped kidnap on Friday, by jumping over the fence of the Government Science secondary school in Katsina state in northwestern Nigeria and fleeing through a forest, said the attackers were armed with Ak-47 assault rifles and rounded up their victims before marching them off.
Boko Haram, whose name means &#8220;Western education is forbidden&#8221; in the local Hausa language, has waged an insurgency in the northeast of Nigeria since 2009 but has not previously claimed attacks in the northwest.
The claims in the audiotape, if true, could mark a widening influence of jihadist groups operating in northeastern Nigeria, political analysts said.
They could also signal that jihadists have formed alliances with militant groups operating in the Sahel, which could further destabilise the impoverished north of Africa&#8217;s most populous nation which plays a pivotal role in regional stability.
Katsina state authorities said about 320 boys were missing and Nigeria&#8217;s government said it had spoken to the kidnappers, who have sought a ransom from at least one parent.
&#8220;We&#8217;re begging the government to please try their best to get their release,&#8221; Hajiya Ummi, whose 15-year-old son Mujtaba is among those missing, said by telephone from her home in Bakori town in Katsina.
&#8220;His friends told me he was sick in bed when the bandits struck. He could hardly move but they dragged him out with the rest of the abducted students,&#8221; she said, her voice cracking with emotion.
AUDIO CLIP
In an audio message which reached Reuters via a WhatsApp message, a man purporting to be Boko Haram leader Abubakar Shekau said: &#8220;We are behind what happened in Katsina.&#8221;
&#8220;What happened in Katsina was done to promote Islam and discourage un-Islamic practices as Western education is not the type of education permitted by Allah and his holy prophet,&#8221; he said.
No video footage was released of the missing boys.
The man offered no proof for his statement. Reuters was unable to verify the audio and Nigerian authorities did not immediately comment.
A security source told Reuters Boko Haram was not itself involved in the abduction, but that the kidnappers could have sold the boys to the Islamist group.
Spokesmen for the presidency, police and army did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
Cheta Nwanze, lead partner at Lagos-based risk consultancy SBM intelligence, said huge swathes of northwest Nigeria were ungoverned spaces where arms and people moved freely across porous borders.
Nearby Burkina Faso has descended into chaos as Islamist groups with links to al Qaeda and Islamic State exploit ethnic grievances and government neglect of the arid north.
On Monday, an attack blamed on Boko Haram killed 28 people and burned 800 homes in the southern Diffa region of Niger, which borders Nigeria to the north.
&#8220;There is a danger that jihadists operating in the Sahel could potentially build alliances with groups that have previously remained in northeast Nigeria. That would further destabilise the region,&#8221; Nwanze said.
Boko Haram carried out the 2014 kidnap of more than 200 girls from a school in the northeastern town of Chibok. About half the girls have been found or freed, dozens have been paraded in propaganda videos, and some are believed to be dead.
More than 30,000 people have been killed since Boko Haram began its insurgency, aimed at creating an Islamic state.
(Reporting by Maiduguri newsroom; Additional reporting by Ardo Hazzad in Bauchi, Alexis Akwagyiram and Libby George in Lagos, Camillus Eboh and Felix Onuah in Abuja; Editing by Andrew Cawthorne and Timothy Heritage)
(c) Copyright Thomson Reuters 2020. Click For Restrictions &#8211; https://agency.reuters.com/en/copyright.html

NIGERIA-UNREST-KIDNAPPING

UPDATE 1-Nigeria’s Boko Haram behind schoolboys’ abduction – audio message

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REDD Intelligence on the outlook for African debt in 2021

By Jack Stubbs
LONDON, Dec 15 (Reuters) &#8211; Rival French and Russian disinformation campaigns have sought to deceive and influence Internet users in the Central African Republic ahead of an election later this month, Facebook said on Tuesday.
Facebook said it was the first time it had seen foreign influence operations directly engage on its platforms, with fake accounts denouncing each other as &#8220;fake news&#8221;.
The company said it had suspended three networks totalling almost 500 accounts and pages for so-called &#8220;coordinated inauthentic behaviour&#8221;. One network was linked to &#8220;individuals associated with French military,&#8221; it said, while the other two had connections to &#8220;individuals associated with past activity by the Russian Internet Research Agency&#8221; as well as Russian businessman Evgeny Prigozhin.
The French defence ministry and military command did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Representatives for Prigozhin, who U.S. prosecutors say directed the Internet Research Agency to meddle in the 2016 U.S. election, did not immediately respond to requests for comment. He denies the U.S. allegations.
&#8220;You can&#8217;t fight fire with fire. We have these two efforts from different sides of these issues using the same tactics and techniques, and they end up looking sort of the same,&#8221; said Nathaniel Gleicher, Facebook&#8217;s head of cybersecurity policy.
France and Russia are both keen to assert influence in Africa. Paris has ties with many French-speaking African countries, which it sees as vital to preventing the spread of violent Islamisation, and Moscow is jockeying for position in a lucrative market.
Facebook said the two campaigns largely focused on the Central African Republic (CAR), which votes on Dec. 27, but also targeted users in 13 other African countries including Algeria, Cameroon, Libya and Sudan.
Ben Nimmo, head of investigations at social media analytics firm Graphika, said both campaigns used fake accounts to pose as local people, sometimes sharing doctored photos.
The French effort started in mid-2019 and pushed pro-French messages before targeting &#8220;Russian fake news&#8221; following Facebook&#8217;s suspension of a Russian-linked disinformation campaign in Africa in October last year.
The subsequent Russian operation attempted to promote Russian business and diplomatic interests, as well as the candidacy of President Faustin-Archange Touadera in the election, he said. Later, the Russian accounts tried to out the French accounts that were trying to out them.
But neither side built a significant audience in CAR, he added. &#8220;They looked like two troll teams arm wrestling, with nobody else really paying attention.&#8221;
(Additional reporting by Tangi Salaun in PARIS; Editing by Giles Elgood)
(c) Copyright Thomson Reuters 2020. Click For Restrictions &#8211; https://agency.reuters.com/en/copyright.html

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Newsletter

EXCLUSIVE-WHO vaccine scheme risks failure, leaving poor countries no COVID shots until 2024

Black Friday taking consumers from bricks to bytes

Ramaphosa imposes further restrictions as COVID-19 cases rise

How digital is shaping the future of financial services industry

UPDATE 1-Nigeria’s Boko Haram behind schoolboys’ abduction – audio message

REDD Intelligence on the outlook for African debt in 2021

French and Russian trolls wrestle for influence in Africa, Facebook says

WorldRemit: CBN’s policy to boost formal remittances to Nigeria

Nigeria’s Debt Management Office offers 50bn naira in today’s T-bills auction

Microsoft invest in skills development to help grow Africa

Bitcoin: A player for the future?

How to address Uganda’s worsening debt crisis

Why The Boeing 737 Max Is Flying Again

How to prevent a looming debt crisis in Africa

Has SA done enough to set itself on solid a growth trajectory?

Sygnia sees 67% jump in earnings

COVID-19: How the pandemic has impacted Africa’s gig economy

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Newsletter

EXCLUSIVE-WHO vaccine scheme risks failure, leaving poor countries no COVID shots until 2024

Black Friday taking consumers from bricks to bytes

Ramaphosa imposes further restrictions as COVID-19 cases rise

How digital is shaping the future of financial services industry

UPDATE 1-Nigeria’s Boko Haram behind schoolboys’ abduction – audio message

REDD Intelligence on the outlook for African debt in 2021

French and Russian trolls wrestle for influence in Africa, Facebook says

WorldRemit: CBN’s policy to boost formal remittances to Nigeria

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