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<p>Last year, petroleum minister Awow Daniel Chuang of South Sudan announced that the country will resume the oil production in Block 5A and add more than 15,000 barrels to the current daily crude output of 178,000 barrels. The country sets to start oil production by the end of this year. South Sudan has made progress on Interstate highway after signing an agreement with Shandong Hi-Speed Group last year to build a 392-kilometer highway that will run northwards from the capital city Juba. Political and Economic Affairs Analyst, Akol Dok, joins CNBC Africa for more on this.</p>


South Sudan set to resume oil production in block 5A

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<p>As Nigeria continues the grapple with the COVID-19 shock, Africa’s largest economy has received a new boost of $288.5 million from the African Development bank to help reduce the impact of the pandemic on people and businesses. This comes as the bank recently concluded its country strategy paper for Nigeria for the next four years. Ebrima Faal, Senior Director of the Nigeria Country Department, of the African Development Bank joins CNBC Africa’s Kenneth Igbomor to share more details on the bank’s plan and strategy for Nigeria&#8230;.</p>


AfDB’s Ebrima Faal on how the bank is responding to COVID-19 in Nigeria

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<p>From disrupting the transport market, Uber is now looking to disrupt financial services with the launch of Uber Cash in South Africa. Alon Lits, Director of Uber in Sub-Saharan Africa.</p>


Uber cash launched in SA

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<p>The ratio of non-performing loans in Kenya have hit a 13-year high due to the shocks caused by the covid-19 pandemic. Central Bank data indicate that bad loans increased to 13.1 per cent, the highest since 2007 when they stood at 14.1 per cent. CNBC Africa spoke to Ken Gichinga, Chief Economist at Mentoria Economics for more.</p>


Kenya non-performing loans hit 13-year high due to COVID-19

<figure>
    <img decoding="async" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/339991/original/file-20200605-176546-gdqw9h.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip"><figcaption>
        The demand of power in West Africa is rising<br />
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Sebastian Sterl</span></span><br />
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<p><span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/sebastian-sterl-1110829">Sebastian Sterl</a>, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/vrije-universiteit-brussel-2958">Vrije Universiteit Brussel</a></em> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/robert-brecha-1095031">Robert Brecha</a>, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-dayton-1726">University of Dayton</a></em></span></p>
<p>Not too long ago, when the idea of solar and wind energy was still hotly debated, critics used to point out the limitations of these energy sources: the sun doesn’t always shine and the wind doesn’t always blow. But nowadays <a href="https://www.resilience.org/stories/2018-05-24/a-100-renewable-grid-isnt-just-feasible-its-already-happening/">many countries’</a> electricity grids are strongly supplied by renewable energy.</p>
<p>The challenge in creating flexible, reliable and affordable energy supply systems with renewables lies in the very different circumstances across countries and regions. Planning and expanding renewable power must consider countries’ local resources and their existing and planned infrastructure. This becomes even more interesting for countries trying to grow their grids and expand their renewables at the same time – like many in sub-Saharan Africa.</p>
<p>One technology that has the flexibility to complement solar and wind power production is hydropower. It can be used as a constant source of electricity, but also compensate for fluctuations in other sources. But it does need to be properly planned and managed if it’s to be sustainable.</p>
<p>Since power generation infrastructure lasts for 30 to 50 years, decisions taken today will to a large extent determine whether governments can meet their <a href="https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/NDCStaging/Pages/All.aspx">climate targets</a>.</p>
<p>Across West Africa, many countries grapple with the challenge of rising electricity demand. At the same time, climate change impacts, mostly caused by fossil fuel combustion, are having a heavy impact on the region’s <a href="https://climateanalytics.org/projects/impact-climate-action/west-africa/">weather patterns</a> and potentially <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-32736-0">agricultural yields</a>.</p>
<p>Can increased electricity generation be harmonised with climate change objectives?</p>
<p>Our <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-020-0539-0">research</a> shows that combining sustainably managed hydropower plants with new solar and wind power projects is a promising option for the West African region. It could minimise the use of fossil fuels and their negative climate change impacts as the region seeks to expand access to affordable electricity.</p>
<h2>West African Power Pool</h2>
<p>Countries in West Africa have different renewable energy potentials. <a href="http://www.ecowrex.org/mapView/index.php?lang=eng&amp;mclayers=layerGHI">Solar potential</a> exists nearly everywhere. <a href="http://www.ecowrex.org/mapView/index.php?lang=eng&amp;mclayers=layerResWind">Wind potential</a> is strongest along coastal areas and in the northern, drier part of the region. Hydropower potential is mostly concentrated in the southern part of the region, which receives the <a href="http://www.ecowrex.org/mapView/index.php?lang=eng&amp;mclayers=layerCatchment2">most rainfall</a>.</p>
<p>Many countries already use large hydropower plants, such as Ghana’s Akosombo dam, and many new dams are in the planning. <a href="https://www.esi-africa.com/industry-sectors/renewable-energy/burkina-faso-unveil-zagtouli-solar-power-plant/">Solar</a> and <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/25/africa/west-africas-largest-wind-plant/index.html">wind</a> power are more recent additions.</p>
<p>Cross-border electricity trade could make better use of all this hydropower, coupled with solar and wind. A common power pool, allowing countries to share their resources, could increase reliable, renewable power supply by as much as 60%, according to our research.</p>
<p>The diagram below, based on our paper, illustrates an example of countries’ potential contributions to such a power pool.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
            <img decoding="async" alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/338707/original/file-20200531-78885-nw40o1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/338707/original/file-20200531-78885-nw40o1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=563&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338707/original/file-20200531-78885-nw40o1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=563&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338707/original/file-20200531-78885-nw40o1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=563&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338707/original/file-20200531-78885-nw40o1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=707&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338707/original/file-20200531-78885-nw40o1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=707&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338707/original/file-20200531-78885-nw40o1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=707&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"><figcaption>
              <span class="caption">Each West African country could contribute to a shared West African Power Pool for electricity supply, based on its own nationally available resources. Picture provided by the authors.</span></p>
</figcaption></figure>
<p>West African countries do already collaborate on electricity exchanges, but mostly through bilateral contracts. The <a href="http://www.ecowapp.org/">West African Power Pool</a>, a regional agency, is planning to integrate the national power systems into a unified electricity market on a larger scale. Our research shows how these efforts could be streamlined with the growth of renewable electricity sources.</p>
<p>Similar efforts are under way in other parts of the world, such as the European Union, where <a href="https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/05/28/final-call-for-feedback-on-eu-rules-for-renewables-financing/">cross-border cooperation</a> is also expected to become more important to scale up renewable electricity generation.</p>
<h2>Benefits for health, costs and ecology</h2>
<p>In our paper, we use a new <a href="https://github.com/VUB-HYDR/REVUB">model</a> to examine the synergies of sustainable hydropower generation with solar and wind power in West Africa. The model shows how to manage these sources in combination.</p>
<p>We show that the region can use hydropower, rather than natural gas plants, to ensure grid reliability while increasing solar and wind power. Natural gas is often touted as a bridging fuel in the transition to sustainable energy. But global emissions need to be around zero by mid-century according to the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/">Paris Agreement</a>. Building more gas infrastructure therefore risks missing climate goals.</p>
<p>The negative impacts on health from <a href="https://e360.yale.edu/digest/air-pollution-from-fossil-fuels-costs-8-billion-per-day-new-research-finds">air pollution</a> resulting from burning fossil fuels are also well known. This can be avoided by investing in renewable energy.</p>
<p>We argue that the cost of renewable electricity over a plant’s lifetime is likely to soon become <a href="https://irena.org/publications/2020/Jun/Renewable-Power-Costs-in-2019">significantly cheaper</a> than for fossil fuels. This is primarily thanks to decreases in solar <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-is-photovoltaic-solar-energy-12924">photovoltaic</a> costs.</p>
<h2>The way forward</h2>
<p>Our paper shows one way to start the renewable transition for West Africa is by optimising the use of local solar, wind and water resources while keeping an eye on sustainability criteria. For instance, our methodology ensures that hydropower lake levels and downstream river flows remain within acceptable boundaries. It also underlines the possibility of replacing future hydropower plants with solar and wind.</p>
<p>This will increase the overall ecological sustainability of renewable power generation.</p>
<p>Taken together, such measures will help to pave the way for a <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960148120304109">long-term transition</a> towards solar PV-based power systems, supported by wind, hydropower, and battery storage.</p>
<p>Our study framework is not limited to West Africa. It can be used for other regions that depend heavily on hydropower and also seek to increase solar and wind power generation.</p>
<p>West African countries are not yet locked in to large, integrated power grid infrastructure designed for plants powered by fossil fuels, as is the case in Europe and North America. The region can plan its future grids around renewables from the outset. It’s an opportunity to leapfrog old technologies – one  which other parts of the world have never had.<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/139521/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important"></p>
<p><span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/sebastian-sterl-1110829">Sebastian Sterl</a>, Researcher, Climate Services for Renewable Energy, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/vrije-universiteit-brussel-2958">Vrije Universiteit Brussel</a></em> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/robert-brecha-1095031">Robert Brecha</a>, Professor, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-dayton-1726">University of Dayton</a></em></span></p>
<p>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-west-africa-can-expand-power-supply-and-meet-climate-goals-139521">original article</a>.</p>

Central Bank of Nigeria cuts benchmark lending rate to 12.5%

How West Africa can expand power supply and meet climate goals

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    <img decoding="async" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/339739/original/file-20200604-67377-d57q25.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip"><figcaption>
        President Ramaphosa’s government is easing the lockdown because of unsustainable economic  costs.<br />
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Getty Images</span></span><br />
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<p><span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/sean-mfundza-muller-298216">Seán Mfundza Muller</a>, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-johannesburg-1275">University of Johannesburg</a></em></span></p>
<p>When President Cyril Ramaphosa announced the decision to implement an initial 21-day national lockdown in response to the threat posed by the COVID-19 pandemic, he referred to “modelling” on which the decision was based. A <a href="https://www.news24.com/news24/southafrica/news/exclusive-the-terrifying-coronavirus-projections-that-pushed-government-into-lockdown-action-20200319">media report</a> a few days later based on leaked information claimed that the government had been told that “a slow and inadequate response by government to the outbreak could result in anywhere between 87,900 and 351,000 deaths”. These estimates, the report said, were based on, respectively, population infection rates of 10% to 40%.</p>
<p>In late April, the chair of the health minister’s advisory committee sub-committee on public health <a href="https://www.businesslive.co.za/fm/features/2020-04-24-sas-covid-19-models-were-flawed-says-former-nicd-expert/">referred to the early models</a> used by the government as “back-of-the-envelope calculations”, saying they were “flawed and illogical and made wild assumptions”.</p>
<p>These assertions have been impossible to fully assess. This is because no official information on the modelling has ever been released – despite its apparently critical role.</p>
<p>A <a href="https://sacoronavirus.co.za/2020/04/13/sas-covid-19-epidemic-trends-next-steps/">briefing by the chair</a> of the health minister’s advisory committee in mid-April sketched some basic details of what the government’s health advisors believed about the likely peak and timing of the epidemic. But no details were given on expected infections, hospital admissions or deaths.</p>
<p>A spokesperson for the presidency <a href="https://www.timeslive.co.za/sunday-times/news/2020-05-10-government-keeping-information-on-virus-under-wraps-to-avoid-covid-19-panic/">said that</a> government was withholding such numbers “to avoid panic”.</p>
<p>Finally, towards the end of May the health minister hosted an engagement between journalists and some of the modellers government was relying on. It then <a href="https://www.nicd.ac.za/diseases-a-z-index/covid-19/surveillance-reports/">started releasing</a> details of the models and projections.</p>
<p>The predictions of these models for an “optimistic scenario” are that the vast majority of the population will be infected, there will be a peak of 8 million infections in mid-August and in total there will be 40,000 deaths.</p>
<p>To understand the significance of these – and the previous numbers – it is useful to consider more broadly what models are and how they are being used in the current context.</p>
<h2>What models are and how they are used</h2>
<p>A theoretical model – whether in epidemiology, economics or even physics – is a simplified representation of how the modeller thinks the world works.</p>
<p>To produce estimates or forecasts of how things might play out in the real world, such models need to make assumptions about the strength of relationships between different variables. Those assumptions reflect some combination of the modeller’s beliefs, knowledge and available evidence.</p>
<p>To put it differently: modelling is sophisticated guesswork. Where models have been successfully used across different contexts and time periods we can have more confidence in their accuracy and reliability.</p>
<p>But models, especially outside sciences like physics, are almost always wrong to some degree. What matters for decision-making is that they are “right enough”. In the current situation, the difference between predicting 35,000 and 40,000 deaths probably won’t change policy decisions, but 5,000 or 500,000 instead of 40,000 might.</p>
<p>In the case of South Africa’s COVID-19 response, available information indicates that epidemiological models have played two main roles.</p>
<p>First, they have provided predictions of the possible scale of death and illness relative to health system capacity, as well as how this is expected to play out over time.</p>
<p>Second, they have been used to assess the success and effects of the government’s intervention strategies.</p>
<p>There are reasons to believe that there have been significant failures in both cases, in the modelling itself and especially in the way that it has been used.</p>
<p>In recent weeks, the government and its advisors have been keen to emphasise the uncertainty of the modelling predictions. From a methodological point of view, that is the responsible stance. But it’s too little too late.</p>
<p>Modelling COVID-19 is <a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-weve-had-imperial-oxford-and-many-more-models-but-none-can-have-all-the-answers-135137">challenging in general</a>, but there are at least four additional reasons to be cautious about our COVID-19 models.</p>
<h2>Reasons for caution</h2>
<p>First, certain key characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 remain unknown and the subject of debate among medical experts.</p>
<p>Second, unlike some countries, South Africa does not have detailed data on the dynamics of social interactions and the models presented so far do not use household survey data as a proxy. Nuanced questions therefore aren’t addressed. For example, most cases early on in the epidemic appeared to have been relatively wealthy travellers. But there was no way to model the consequences of domestic workers being exposed by their employers and thereby infecting others in their (poorer) communities. So the structure of South Africa’s models is high level and does not account for country-specific factors.</p>
<p>Third, the values for the parameters of the models (representing the strength of relationships between different factors) are being taken from evidence in other countries. They may not actually be the same in South Africa.</p>
<p>Finally, the unsystematic nature of aspects of the government’s approach to testing, such as through its community screening programme, makes it much harder to infer the effects of its interventions.</p>
<h2>Unclear objectives</h2>
<p>There is little reason to believe that government had anything other than good intentions. Nevertheless, the consequences of its lack of sophistication in using evidence and expertise may burden an entire generation of South Africans.</p>
<p>A major problem linked to the combination of excessive confidence and secrecy is that the government’s strategy was never clear: although it referred to “flattening the curve” it never stated what its specific objectives were. In the terms of <a href="https://spiral.imperial.ac.uk:8443/handle/10044/1/77482">the most influential modelling-based advice</a> during the pandemic, was its strategy “suppression” or “mitigation”?</p>
<p>The government and its advisors have made much of the fact that the lockdown probably delayed the peak of the epidemic. But there is no evidence so far that this was worth the cost – since most of the population is expected to be infected anyway.</p>
<p>One key claim is that the lockdown bought the country time to prepare the health system.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://spiral.imperial.ac.uk/handle/10044/1/77482">Imperial model</a> defined the primary objective of “flattening the curve” as reducing ICU admissions below the number of critical care beds. On that dimension, the government’s own modellers predict a peak of 20,000 critical cases in the optimistic scenario and only about 4,000 ICU beds with little increase from the pre-lockdown numbers. By this definition, it has failed dismally.</p>
<p>There appears to have been more success with securing supplies of personal protective equipment, quarantine locations, overflow beds and some ventilators. But there is also little evidence that many of those small gains could not have been achieved without such a costly lockdown.</p>
<p>Given this, it is concerning that many academics and commentators have praised the success of government’s strategy. This has included the Academy of Sciences, which <a href="https://www.assaf.org.za/index.php/news/626-public-statement-on-covid19">has asserted</a>  that “strong, science-based governmental leadership has saved many lives, for which South Africa can be thankful”.</p>
<p>This is entirely unsubstantiated.</p>
<p>First, the full toll of the epidemic will be experienced over time and so it is possible to have fewer deaths at the outset due to a policy intervention being exceeded by a larger number of deaths later because of the limitations of that same policy intervention.</p>
<p>Second, the only way to substantiate such claims would be to use models of different scenarios. But we’ve seen that the early models were not credible and the subsequent ones are subject to a great deal of uncertainty. It seems that the government <a href="https://www.news24.com/news24/southafrica/news/lockdown-and-other-interventions-potentially-saved-20-000-lives-top-scientist-20200513">and some of its advisors</a> want to have the best of both worlds: they want to use dramatically incorrect predictions by early models to claim success of their interventions. This is misleading and does not meet the most basic standards by which academics in quantitative disciplines establish causal effects of policy interventions.</p>
<p>In an <a href="https://theconversation.com/covid-19-the-cure-could-be-worse-than-the-disease-for-south-africa-134436">earlier article</a>, I noted that “if the current lockdown fails to drastically curb transmission, which is possible, it would layer one disaster on another … the country may exhaust various resources by the time the potentially more dangerous winter period arrives”.</p>
<p>This appears to be the situation in which South Africa finds itself.<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/140002/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important"></p>
<p><span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/sean-mfundza-muller-298216">Seán Mfundza Muller</a>, Senior Lecturer in Economics, Research Associate at the Public and Environmental Economics Research Centre (PEERC) and Visiting Fellow at the Johannesburg Institute of Advanced Study (JIAS), <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-johannesburg-1275">University of Johannesburg</a></em></span></p>
<p>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-use-of-covid-19-modelling-has-been-deeply-flawed-heres-why-140002">original article</a>.</p>

Op Ed: East African finance ministers to present budgets for new fiscal year

South Africa’s use of COVID-19 modelling has been deeply flawed. Here’s why


<p>By Chris Bishop and Nic Wolpe</p>



<p>Forty four years on and still black people are being attacked and despised on the streets of their country. On the 16th June, we pause to remember the South African schoolchildren who stood up against heavily armed police for their rights and paid with their young lives. A sad reminder of what vicious brutality, at the hands of police, went before the tragic death of George Floyd.</p>



<p>The desperate days in South Africa when the lives of schoolchildren clearly didn’t matter to the authorities; the late photographer Alf Kumalo was there in Soweto, risking his neck to take pictures, on that dreadful winter’s afternoon. Years later he told, with horror, how he saw police tossing the dead bodies of schoolchildren in a pile in the aftermath of the shooting that claimed at least 176 lives. Rarely was more blood spilt and innocence lost in Africa in a single clash with authority.</p>



<p>The memory of all can be best served by remembering and discussing the causes all sacrificed for. The youth of Soweto rose against the apartheid system. They were fighting against a system of instruction in schools, in Afrikaans, that condemned many of them to a life of servitude. In the words, borrowed from the Bible, of the architect of apartheid – Hendrik Verwoerd – such an education made the youngsters: “nothing more than drawers of water and hewers of wood.”</p>



<p>Both the Soweto uprising and the killing of George Floyd have their antecedents in the same deep seated racism whether it be in the classroom or the street. You can be sure the young Turks of Soweto in 1976 would have taken to the streets in support of George Floyd.</p>



<p>The howl of protest from Soweto was enough is enough; 44 years later we are seeing the same anguish emanating from the United States. The killing of George Floyd has sparked mass demonstrations around the world crying out for change.</p>



<p>The commemoration of the ‘76 Soweto uprising chimes with the massed George Floyd demonstrations with people saying they are no longer going to tolerate the brutality dished out to people based on their skin colour. The behaviour of some US policeman towards their black fellow citizens in not only deplorable, it is also a microcosm of this systemic racism that has seeped into every pore of US Society.</p>



<p>It affords us, in South Africa, opportunity to stand with our brothers and sisters in America to shout with one voice that enough is indeed enough. We won’t sit silently by and accept racist discrimination in the United States, or anywhere else for that matter.</p>



<p>It may have taken decades, but many of the young bloods of Soweto lived to see their children and grandchildren grow up with the chance of a brighter future with more opportunities. Let’s hope the children of the revolution in the United States protests will be able say the same in decades to come – if not sooner.&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;</p>


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COMMENT: Youth Day 2020 – The link between the Young Turks of Soweto and George Floyd.

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<p>Latest World Bank data shows that economic activity in Sub-Sahara Africa is on course to contract by 2.8 per cent this year, the deepest ever on record.</p>


World Bank: SSA economy to contract 2.8% in 2020

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<p>The Ministry of Health of the Democratic Republic of Congo officially declared the eleventh Ebola outbreak in the country on the first of June this year. This means that the DRC is now fighting to curtail the spread of three major health outbreaks – the Ebola Virus Disease, Measles and the COVID-19 pandemic simultaneously. Niniola Williams, Managing Director of Drasa Health Trust joins CNBC Africa more.</p>


DRC faces triple threat of coronavirus

DRC faces triple threat of coronavirus, Ebola & measles

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<p>CNBC Africa with Absa CEO Daniel Mminele on the back of the group’s completion of a three year separation of the biggest shareholder of the company Barclays. He spoke about the group lending and economic recovery outlook amid the Covid-19 pandemic&#8230;.</p>


Absa CEO on navigating COVID-19 headwinds & SA’s economic outlook

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<p>Global peace is on the brink of collapse in the wake of the civil unrest protests in America, as well as the risk of Covid-19 potentially threatening socio-economic developments in countries and creating humanitarian crisis and unrest amongst citizens. This is according to the 2020 Global Peace Index and joining CNBC Africa for more is Serge Stroobants, Director for the Europe &#038; MENA Region from the Institute for Economics &#038; Peace.</p>


COVID-19: How the pandemic threatens global peace

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<p>The RMB/BER Business Confidence Index has fallen to a record low of 5 points in the second quarter due to the unprecedented damage from Covid-19. This is lowest level in business confidence since the survey started in 1975. Joining CNBC Africa to breakdown the figures is Siobhan Redford, Economist at RMB.</p>


COVID-19: Business Confidence slumps to new low in Q2

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<p>Amidst predictions of a global recession and an historic economic growth cut in Africa, UBA holds conversations with leaders and strategists defining Africa’s response to COVID &#8211; 19 and explores how the continent can manage growth, jobs and sustainable development within the pandemic&#8230;.</p>


How Africa can manage growth

How Africa can manage growth, jobs & sustainable development amidst a global pandemic

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<p>Kenya is facing the worst desert locust invasion in 70 years that has affected the already vulnerable northern region of the country. In May, the World Bank Board of Directors approved a $43 million International Development Assistance credit for Kenya as part of a larger regional Emergency Locust Response Project to respond to the threat posed by the desert locust outbreak and to strengthen Kenya’s system for preparedness. Nick Kwolek, Founder of KwolCo joins CNBC Africa for more.</p>


Second wave of locusts threatens food security in East Africa

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<p>Burundi&#8217;s President Pierre Nkurunziza, aged 55, has died after suffering a cardiac arrest, the government says. He was admitted to hospital on Saturday after feeling unwell, his condition improved but on Monday he had a cardiac arrest and efforts to revive him were unsuccessful, officials say. Burundi Political and Economic Analyst, Jean Claude Nkundwa joins CNBC Africa for more.</p>


Burundi’s president Pierre Nkurunziza passes on aged 55

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<p>The media faces a battle for survival at a time of the greatest upheaval and disruption since Caxton came up with the printing press. For years, the traditional media in Africa has seen its power wane in the face of technological changes and shrinking advertising. CNBC Africa&#8217;s Chris Bishop talks to a panel of experts on the topic of the media&#8217;s battle for survival amid Covid-19 and lockdowns&#8230;.</p>


#BusinessTomorrow: Media’s battle for survival amid COVID-19 & lock-downs


<h3 class="wp-block-heading">KEY POINTS</h3>



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Economic activity collapsed in Sub-Saharan Africa in the first half of the year.</li><li>Nigeria&#8217;s economy expected to shrink by 3.2% this year.</li><li>South Africa’s output is forecast to contract 7.1% this year, the deepest contraction in a century.</li><li><a>Angola, DRC &amp; Ghana are having to cope with weaker external demand &amp; lower prices for oil &nbsp;&amp; metals</a>.</li><li>Agricultural commodity exporters, Côte d’Ivoire, Ethiopia &amp; Kenya, have suffered from a collapse in demand.</li><li><a>Economic activity in Sub-Saharan Africa on course to contract by 2.8% in 2020, the deepest on record</a>. Growth could resume to 3.1% in 2021</li><li>COVID-19 pandemic likely to push millions in the region back into extreme poverty.</li></ul>



<p></p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong><em>Recent developments:</em></strong><em> </em></h2>



<p>Sub-Saharan Africa has been ravaged by the COVID-19 pandemic, and economic activity collapsed in the first half of this year. The pandemic has taken a heavy human and economic toll, causing the most serious disruption to region-wide economic activity on record. Sub-Saharan Africa has suffered as a result of the impact of the pandemic on its key trading partners, the disruption to global travel and supply chains, and the collapse in global commodity prices, particularly for oil and industrial metals. These shocks have heightened risk aversion among investors and prompted unprecedented capital outflows.</p>



<p>In Nigeria and South Africa, activity has fallen precipitously in the first half of the year. <a>Several industrial commodity exporters, such as Angola, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Ghana, have had to cope with weaker external demand and lower prices for oil and metals</a>, in addition to domestic disruptions. Agricultural commodity exporters, including Côte d’Ivoire, Ethiopia and Kenya, have suffered from a collapse in demand as well as disruptions to supply chains. The fall in global travel as a result of the pandemic has hit hard on countries with substantial exposure to travel and tourism, such as Cabo Verde, Ethiopia, Mauritius, Seychelles.</p>



<p>Inflation has crept up in the region, reflecting currency depreciations and supply chain upheaval. While many countries have announced fiscal support measures, in many instances these involve reprioritizing existing budgets given fiscal constraints. International institutions have called on bilateral creditors to suspend some debt payments.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong><em>Outlook:</em></strong> </h2>



<p class="has-text-color has-very-dark-gray-color"><a>Economic activity in the region is on course to contract by 2.8% in 2020, the deepest on record. Per capita GDP is anticipated to fall even more sharply, likely pushing millions in the region back into extreme poverty. </a>Growth could resume to 3.1% in 2021 assuming the pandemic fades in the second half of the year, that domestic outbreaks of the virus follow a similar path, and that growth in major trading partners rebounds. Sub-Saharan Africa faces daunting hurdles to contain COVID-19 given weak health care capacity, lack of access to basic sanitation, and the prevalence of informal economic activity across much of the region.</p>



<p class="has-text-color has-very-dark-gray-color"><a>The economy of Nigeria is expected to shrink by 3.2% this year, given the collapse in oil prices, which represent 80% of the country’s exports, about a third of banking sector credit, and half of government revenues. South Africa’s output is forecast to contract 7.1% this year, the deepest contraction in a century, as stringent but necessary containment measures curtail economic activity.</a></p>



<p class="has-text-color has-very-dark-gray-color"><a>Economic activity among commodity importing economies is anticipated to shrink this year despite lower oil prices, as international travel restrictions weigh on tourist visits. Industrial commodity exporters’ GDP is similarly anticipated to contract in 2020 as domestic disruptions are compounded by low prices for oil and metals. Agricultural commodity exporters are also expected to experience a collapse in economic activity this year despite being somewhat insulated from commodity price declines, as foreign direct investment and tighter financial conditions delay investment.</a></p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong><em>Risks: </em></strong></h2>



<p>Risks are tilted firmly to the downside. A longer lasting and more severe pandemic would trigger an even deeper recession in the region and have devastating effects on the health and well-being of the region’s population. The effects of the pandemic are expected to markedly increase the region’s vulnerability to debt distress, and these strains will be compounded by the increased borrowing necessary to fund larger deficits. Severely constrained government resources could lead to a curtailment of critical public services during the pandemic and further weigh on activity.</p>



<p>There are also growing concerns that the pandemic may cause a food security crisis in the region as border closures and trade restrictions disrupt trading in food and agricultural products. The region’s large numbers of displaced people could complicate efforts to prevent the spread of COVID-19. In addition, there is the risk of social unrest as governments prioritize efforts to thwart the virus and peacekeeping efforts lose momentum. Rising unemployment, falling incomes, and potential shortages of essential items could lead to instability and weigh on activity well after the pandemic has faded.</p>



<p><a href="https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/33748/9781464815539.pdf">Download <em>Global Economic Prospects</em></a></p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>World Bank Group COVID-19 Response</strong></h2>



<p>“The&nbsp;<a href="https://www.worldbank.org/">World Bank Group</a>, one of the largest sources of funding and knowledge for developing countries, is taking&nbsp;<a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/who-we-are/news/coronavirus-covid19">broad, fast action</a>&nbsp;to help developing countries strengthen their pandemic response. We are supporting public health interventions, working to ensure the flow of critical supplies and equipment, and helping the private sector continue to operate and sustain jobs. We will be deploying up to $160 billion in financial support over 15 months to help more than 100 countries protect the poor and vulnerable, support businesses, and bolster economic recovery.&nbsp; This includes $50 billion of new IDA resources through grants and highly concessional loans.”</p>



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table><tbody><tr><td></td></tr><tr><td></td><td><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="424" height="812" src=""></td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



<p><a href="http://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/global-economic-prospects">Download this data</a></p>


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#BusinessTomorrow: Media’s battle for survival amid COVID-19 & lock-downs

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